Fair bit of polling doing the rounds this week, as is generally the case in the wake of a budget:
• The Age/Herald had further results from the Resolve Strategic poll on Tuesday, including ratings for the two leaders, which had 57% rating Anthony Albanese’s performance as very good or good compared with 28% for poor or very poor, with Peter Dutton respectively at 29% and 41%. The poll also found 40% supported allowing multi-employer bargaining, with 24% opposed; 26% supported mandatory multi-employer bargaining, with 32% opposed; and an even 29% favoured higher wages at the cost of higher prices and vice-versa.
• This fortnight’s Essential Research survey features the monthly prime ministerial ratings, which now involves directing respondents to give Anthony Albanese a rating from zero to ten. Forty-five per cent gave him between seven and ten, down one on last month; 28% gave him from four to six, down three; and 20% gave him zero to three, up three. Questions on the budget turned up one finding missed by the others: 45% said they had paid it little or no attention, around ten points up on the last three budgets, while 55% said a little or a lot, around ten points down. Fifty-two per cent expect economic conditions to worsen over the next twelve months, up twelve since June, while 24% expect them to improve, down eight. Respondents were asked to pick first and second most important contributors to energy price increases, which had excessive profits and efforts to fight climate change leading the field, international circumstances and a worn-out energy network somewhat lower, and too many restrictions on exploration well behind. The poll was conducted Saturday to Wednesday from a sample of 1058.
• Roy Morgan’s regular weekly video has included primary votes from its latest federal poll, conducted from October 24 (the day before the budget) to October 30, rather than just two-party preferred as per its usual form. This shows Labor on 38.5% (down half on the previous week), the Coalition on 37% (up one-and-a-half), the Greens on 12% (up one), independents on 6% (down two) and One Nation on 3% (down one-and-a-half). Labor led 55.5-44.5 on two-party preferred, out from 54.5-45.5.
• The quarterly-or-so True Issues series from JWS Research is a “special release” on the budget, as opposed to its usual focus on issue salience. It finds 14% of respondents saying the budget would be good or very good for them personally compared with 36% for average and 31% for poor or very poor; for the national economic impact, the respective numbers were 20%, 38% and 25%. However, respondents provided highly positive responses when asked about fifteen specific budget measures, all but one of which attracted a favourable response – the distinct exception being “axing” the low-and-middle income tax offset. The most popular spending measures involved health and the least popular (relatively speaking) involved parental leave and childcare subsidies.
• The University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre has results of a YouGov poll it commissioned encompassing 1000 respondents in each of Australia, the United States and Japan, conducted from September 5 to 9. It found 44% of Australians would support responding with force if China invaded Taiwan, compared with 33% of Americans; 36% of Australians felt the US alliance made Australia more secure, with 58% of Americans holding a reciprocal view, up from 44% in December; 52% of Australians felt China was “mostly harmful” in Asia, with 20% rating it “mostly helpful”; an interestingly even 28% and 31% felt the same way about the United States, in dramatic contrast to results of 7% and 52% among Japanese respondents; 36% approved of the federal government’s handling of the relationship with China, with 19% disapproving; 52% supported the nuclear submarines plan, with 19% opposed; and “one in two”. Thirty-six per cent of Australians felt it would be good for the country if Joe Biden won another term compared with 19% for bad, while 50% felt a return of Donald Trump would be bad compared with 26% for good.
• In a rare bit of interesting polling news from Western Australia, a Painted Dog Research poll for The West Australian finds Mark McGowan with an approval rating of 70%, up two from March, and a disapproval rating of 18%, down seven, suggesting a consistency of popularity beyond any Australian politician I could name. David Honey, leader of what remains of the state parliamentary Liberal Party, had an approval rating of just 9%, with 31% disapproving, 40% neutral and 19% oblivious. The poll also found stage three tax cuts supported by 53% and opposed by 32%. It was conducted from October 19 to 21 from a sample of 637.
Rex wonders what went into Djokovic’s drink bottle. Interesting question.
I went to an international one day cricket match at the WACA a few years ago. On the way in all bags were carefully searched to make sure no illicit booze was brought in, presumably to force people to buy over priced drinks at the ground.
We were seated next to a couple a servicemen from RAAF Pearce who had an esky full of coca-cola that was permitted, and a giant sunscreen container full of vodka.
Thankfully our defence force is obviously full of very clever people.
I don’t get why Dreyfus is getting involved?
If he has evidence a crime was committed, he should send it to the AFP. They should gather any further evidence required, pass it to the DPP. DPP should decide whether to prosecute, based on their assessment of likelihood of securing a conviction.
Dreyfus making comments is not appropriate. Running interference to protect a Liberal, so that in the future when the Liberals are back in power and a Labor person is accused of something, the Liberals can return the favor.
Starting to become obvious why Labor kicked the can down the road in delaying an ICAC, and worked with the Liberals to shroud its actions in secrecy.
“ Dreyfus has one rule for McBride, another for Morrison.”
OK. I’ll bite ‘integrity’ Rex.
One of the above was Prime Minister, who may have had the authority to leak stuff. Something that he himself noted on more than one occasion when PM. It may be difficult to prosecute him in these circumstances. It would almost certainly take a tremendous lot of time to fully investigate and for the Cth DPP to come to a firm view on before issuing indictments.
The other dude wasn’t PM, and didn’t have any authority to leak.
These issues are complex: something your binary ‘Labor bad’ / ‘lib-lab, same-same’ brain can’t comprehend.
In those circumstances, a ‘cease and desist’ notice to Morrison is a good start, and may not the the last word on the subject. McBride has its own set of complexities.
We all ‘appreciate’ your default tendency for false equivalency. … it is ‘special’.
I think some more chicken soup and a good lie down this afternoon may help you. … in soul and body but probably not regarding your firmness of mind.
Oranges are my staple of choice at the moment. 🙂
I thought I saw a reference to the Prime Minister having the discretion to reveal certain information.
If so, what he revealed when PM would probably not be an offence, but now would be a different matter.
What was the price six teals spent to win their seats? (Oz Headline)
Six teal independents raised more than $10m in donations in the lead up to May’s election – with Wentworth MP Allegra Spender spending over $2.1m on her campaign.
Shame the Liberal party was asleep at the wheel again.
Palmer spent $80m. Didnt win a seat. So if the Murdoch press is trying to prove that money wins votes then they are deluded.
I’ve read some deranged logic on this site, but Voice Endeavour really pushes the envelope with his last contribution.
Steve Davis
Comparing Palmer with the independents is chalk and cheese.
He spent his own money. The independents had some big donors, but thousands of small ones.
I think I saw Monique Ryan had more than 3000.
that’s a lot of people who didn’t like Frydenberg and backed it up.
steve davis says:
Monday, November 7, 2022 at 1:02 pm
Cronus
Credlin is a dinosaur nowadays.
———————–
And even not unlike one in looks.
Macarthur
You raise serious considerations. Best wishes for you and for Ukraine.
Go Bill Shorten!
Crushing it on Robodebt.
A random thought flickers on dinosaurs. Aren’t crocodiles from that era too?
How come the article in the Age on Jack Ta, Dutts, ScoMo and GMO isn’t appearing in the News.com.au feed anywhere?
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/the-migration-agent-and-the-liberal-ministers-how-one-man-gamed-australia-s-visa-system-20221104-p5bvjm.html
Don’t they all look lovely together?
the mullet was a dead giveaway that something else was going on.
Rex
“Somyurek and Bernie Finn heading up the Vic DLP.
What a joke.”
On this we are agreed. With the far right Christian vote now pursued by the Liberal party, whom do they think they will appeal to for votes? Perhaps retirees who think the LNP has not gone far enough right, but don’t like Pauline Hanson’s hairstyle.
Late Riser
Appreciating the social media platform comparisons, explanations and changes, very handy indeed to the minimally informed like myself.
Somyurek says the Labor party “is merely a vehicle for a private school-educated inner-city elitist cabal to exploit the working class to enhance their own political careers.”
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Monday, November 7, 2022 at 1:40 pm
Xi started with a bang with the belt and road initiative. Western involvement has been crimped due to the last two successive White House administrations, and I think as a consequence Xi has lost his shit a little bit. Not a good sign in someone approaching 70 and having successfully centralised all power to himself domestically. Getting Xi to lose his shit seems to be the overarching ‘game theory’ of the Americans.
So, it is possible that he could single-handedly fuck this all up. On the other hand, China survived the cultural revolution and the fallout from the Tiananmen square massacres. So, I think the odds still favour ChiComm China surviving Xi.
———————————————————————————————
IMO the Belt and Road initiative was very clever on so many levels, he was achieving more through this diplomacy than through the point of a spear. It started to go wrong when he took his eye off the ball to focus almost entirely on absolute party control (emperor for life) and when he did look back to foreign affairs, he went all wolf warrior on us with bellicose talk, punitive trade responses and then the illegal acquisition of island groups on which he built military bases. In other words, he moved from Sun Tzu to Attila the Hun (an exaggeration) and it made everyone understandably wary.
“the mullet was a dead giveaway that something else was going on.”
I reckon someone had to ask him to take off the speed dealers for the photos.
Nath
“Somyurek says the Labor party “is merely a vehicle for a private school-educated inner-city elitist cabal to exploit the working class to enhance their own political careers.””
I’m confused, aren’t those the Teal voters? Also, given that Somyurek himself has three degrees, his gift for irony in complaining about “elites” is considerable.
It would be a lot smarter in former LNP ministers / Prime Ministers retired / didn’t ask questions in Question Time.
Attorney-general fires off letter to Morrison over cabinet concerns.
“Additionally, references to a ‘secret intelligent briefing’ from the Office of National Intelligence (p312) would appear to be contrary to the confidentiality of information from the intelligence and security agencies,” Dreyfus wrote.
He added: “I trust there will be no further disclosure from your period in government that undermine national security and the integrity of the cabinet process.”
It would be ironic if Andrews’ failure to reform the Upper House resulted in Somyurek returning to continue his vendetta. Somyurek, cheque in hand, might be speaking to the preference whisperer right now.
LR,
What cronus said.
Considering lobbying my organisation to set up their own Mastodon server now.
Fulvio Sammut @ #1064 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 2:12 pm
Hard to tell the hob from the nobs.
Whose reputation is hurt the most by the photo?
I’d call it a draw.
Anyway, Simon, the Transylvanian is wearing the best tie.
The Courier Mail
Former prime minister Tony Abbott says high-school leavers “should give back to our country” via compulsory national service.
He’s back folks and full of fresh new ideas for the 21st century. Back to the Winton dinosaur trail for Tony.
Ask not what you can do for your country. Ask what you can do for your donors and people who pay a lot of money to attend your political fundraisers.
nath
Monday, November 7, 2022 at 3:10 pm
It would be ironic if Andrews’ failure to reform the Upper House resulted in Somyurek returning to continue his vendetta. Somyurek, cheque in hand, might be speaking to the preference whisperer right now.
Naf may well be speaking to his whispering preferences as he constructs his thoughts to link this latest development to Shorten.
i think dreyfuss is defending morrison due to it seems a close friendship with anthony byrne the litle known labor mp on the inteligents committy that used secrit footige to distroy somyurek as part of a factional ploy dreyfus wasthe only labor mp to make a strong defence of byrne insisting he should run again for some reason plus didnt mckenzey get a lot of national security leaks from someone and acording to somyurek not that i believe him much byrne was behind the 4 corners story mckenzey did to discredit dastyari dreyfus is rlabors worst minister bernie finn might be at risk in upper house for linking up with somyurek
what does that mean for vagella somyureks allie who created an other party will somyureks lutenants kairouz and scott join after years of branch stacking scott made a strange comment claiming labor must cut immigration and apeel to conservatives kairouz normaly follows somyurek would put vagella in a aukwood situation if she runs for a seperae partty
Cronus at 3:51 pm
Nice to see the ‘hardy annual’ and old fogie favorite, “bring back national service’, is still alive and kicking. Tones should tell us about his national service…………………….oh wait.
Training around 200,000 19 year olds for a year should make for an interesting national exercise. Barracks, food, training grounds, equipment, pay for the reservists, pay for the trainers. Let’s say all up around $50,000 per capita.
Say, $10 billion a year.
I see Abbott’s fetish is showing again today.
Creepy guy.
Boerwar
Australian youth today are very different to my time when National service was a thing. I was in the last ballot held in the second half of 1972.
I’d reckon a majority these days would refuse to register, if that was a requirement, and then refuse to turn up.
Only maddies like Abbott would think it possible.
“ Warnings about legal and policy problems with the proposed Robodebt scheme were “watered down” in a brief being prepared for then social services minister Scott Morrison, according to evidence given to the Robodebt royal commission.”
“ The crossed-out phrase had flagged the “fundamental impacts” on social security policy and legislation, stating “it could be expected that some of the proposals will come under significant scrutiny as not being consistent with the overall beneficial nature of social security law”.
“ Asked who prepared the draft, Mr Flavel said he would “be staggered if it didn’t come from DHS (Department of Human Services)”. He said he did not know “who actually imputed into the document” and agreed the language made the issues with the income averaging proposal “less obvious”.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-07/robodebt-legal-warning-watered-down-scott-morrison/101610200
Aaron newton
You prompted me to google up a bit on Byrne as I couldn’t remember much/anything of his story. This was a lol. I wonder if he ever considered another reason closer to home for people not coming to the door to speak to him ? 😆
Dont think somyurek will cause much damage to andrews he has not recovered from the iback investergation a few years back he attacked the shoppies now he is teaming up with bernie finn but they were on different sides somyurek will probaly just mean bernie finn will lose support how can fin who allways aposed andrews team up with a former member of his cabenit somyurek does not seem to believe in any thing labor should have got rid of group voteing t ickets a great move turnbull did which labor stupidly aposed
These are my thoughts wrt the Hugh White talk video linked by Socrates. I don’t really care what you think about them, noting well the situation as it seems to be that certain individuals will disagree with anything I have to say about the matter because I have a different opinion to them and because I am the one saying it. Also it gives them another opportunity to call me silly schoolboy names. Nevertheless, I’m not going to let the opportunity pass of reviewing the video and then leaving my critique to gather dust. So here goes. Please excuse the length. If words appear in italics they are Hugh White’s. Mine are in the regular font.
Russia has a right to exert a sphere of influence
The argument here by White is that Russia has a ‘right’ to expect to exert a ‘sphere of influence’ over Ukraine because of its proximity to the country and its historical relations with it. Hugh White appears to assert this ‘right’ due to the fact of Russia possessing nuclear weapons and his belief that Russia is a Great Power in the world. An assertion I would personally challenge on two fronts. Nuclear might is not right, nor does it give you ‘rights’. Secondly, I would put Russia more in the category of waning power, vis a vis its drop down the pecking order vis a vis China and India recently. However, I just can’t understand White’s perspective that Russia is owed the ‘right’ to attack Ukraine because they are unhappy with the direction Ukraine has taken since the break up of the USSR, reflected in White’s statement of Russia’s determination to preserve the old world order
White then seeks to explain why he believes in the definite merit as it relates to China’s challenge to the US order as it exists in Asia. Again this exemplifies White’s ‘might is right’ mindset. That China should be allowed to challenge, as he puts it the Anglo-Saxon primacy in the Western Pacific of Britain and the US simply because it is the world’s 2nd largest economy and it is actually in Asia. Two rather flimsy justifications in my opinion.
He suggests that a war between China and America over Taiwan is inevitable and will be necessary and sufficient to sort out which of the two great powers holds sway in the region. He thinks that neither will win the war and they will fight themselves to a pretty quick standstill and stalemate. Ultimately he believes America will cede control of Taiwan to China because they won’t think it worth the candle to struggle on, as they did in Afghanistan, and keep trying to win. However, not once in his assessment does White mention America’s strategic need to fight hard for Taiwan as a result of its centrality to global chip production, which America does not want China to control. White says, America no longer has the economic weight to win the argument, when I think it does and it has forcefully started upon the path to stymying China economically, not least with the recent passage of the CHIPS Act.
White states that China is determined to overturn the order in the Western Pacific and Asia and it is much harder for America to preserve the old order. He speaks with awe about the ‘hard men’ at the top of the military in China. I question whether he has reflected on the type of men who lead the American Military at this point in time and their Defence Secretary and how battle-hardened they are becoming with their involvement in Ukraine.
What a remarkable thing the rise of China is!, White says. I wouldn’t have put it in such glowing terms, instead I would say it is inevitable considering their opening up to ‘capitalism with special characteristics’. I don’t think that with that rise inevitably should follow greater power in the region. This, at least I can partially agree with White on when he says that, Australia, as a Middle Power, along with other Asian countries such as Indonesia, should be the handbrake on China’s overweening ambition.
White makes a comparison of Global GDP. China 24%: US 14% and states that the imbalance will only grow. Again he ignores the American re-orientation of its manufacturing base to bring American companies back from China and to gestate new industries in America which China will be excluded from. So I think those numbers will not be as rosy for China in the future as White has projected.
Okay, that’s where I’ll end Part 1. I think Word Press refuses to allow really long posts. So, on to Part 2. 🙂
Rossmcg,
Millenials fought in Iraq and Afghanistan. The youth of today are the same as those of yesterday. If you linked national service to something like, free uni, then people would put in the effort.
But frankly, I think that society badly serves the young. Gen Z and the millennials know this. Until the older folk start doing their service to the country by not making it a fucking climate hellscape, then they will have trouble pitching that the youth, shoudl do their service.
Been out today (challenging tooth extraction) so just tuned in to Robodebt RC. Did I miss anything significant this morning?
Bennelong Lurker:
Warnings about legal and policy problems with the proposed Robodebt scheme were “watered down” in a brief being prepared for then social services minister Scott Morrison, according to evidence given to the Robodebt royal commission.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-07/robodebt-legal-warning-watered-down-scott-morrison/101610200
south
We have handed it all over to the Youf. Morrison was the first post Boomer PM. Albanese is only a Boomer by a matter of months. Good luck!
We handed over an Australia in which wealth per capita was the highest it had ever been, where there was universal free health, universal free primary and secondary education and where law and order meant that nearly every street in the nation was safe. We handed over a nation where employment was 94.%, where 99% of the population lived in houses with more or less permanent power. Those houses are routinely filled with an assortment of consumer goods that would have caused the 1945 Boomers to marvel. Those houses were sewered. The communications system was infinitely superior to what it was. As was the access to data. The roads from the front of the houses were bitumen. Australia is protected by a professional army suitably equipped to repel invaders. The air is the cleanest it has been for many decades. Food safety standards are excellent. The doctors and nurses know what they ought to do and generally do it. All manner of diseases that used to kill Australians in droves are under control. There is cradle to the grave support in all manner of ways. There is plenty to eat for everyone. The water is safe to drink. Sewage is disposed of safely. Even most regional cities have art galleries. The numbers of Australians participating in all manner of sports has never been greater. There is a vast and growing expanse of urban, terrestrial and marine parks. The road system is infinitely safer to drive on and is massively more extensive. In that time the nation has absorbed more refugees per capita than most other countries. It has become a world leader in many cultures living together.
But are the Youf grateful?
Shit no. All they do is bloody whinge. They would much rather go back to what was like when the first year of the Boomer generation. Actually, they have no idea what Australian life was like then.
Thanks, Hh.
“ Asked who prepared the draft, Mr Flavel said he would “be staggered if it didn’t come from DHS (Department of Human Services)”. He said he did not know “who actually imputed into the document”
So there are no emails suggesting the changes or tracking of changes in the Word document … sure.
Maybe they can find redacted “ advice” that doesn’t point to any minsters office or staff.
Ps. It’s a safe assumption in all these cases that LNP corruption / unethical behaviour is at the bottom on it
BL
See ABC story above for main point.
Lots of questions about document searches and what had not been turned up.
Guy from DSS said in his experience with programs like Robodebt there would be communication between departments at secretary level.
He said he could find no written record of any of these communications.
The Royal Commssioner seemed troubled by this.
I believe the relevant secretaries are on the guest list later in week. That could be interesting.
RC establishing the flaw in Robodebt and how DSS where completely of aware of its flaw.
Some pleasant discoveries using Mastodon:
* You aren’t restricted to “following” accounts. You can follow #hashtags, which means that posts containing the #hashtag will show up in your “home” timeline. At first, I followed people all over the place to build up a stream of interesting things to explore. Now I mainly follow #hashtags of interest.
* The web interface allows you to set up side by side timelines, for #hashtags or people you follow (Home timeline), for people in your server instance (Local timeline), or for the universe of servers (Federated timeline). Or you can just go “basic”. The “Local timeline” is a bit like Pollbludger.
* Posts are automatically deleted (right to be forgotten?) “once they reach a specified age threshold, unless they match one of the exceptions below”
___
I’ll stop now with the Mastodon stuff. Essentially, it’s more flexible and more accountable than Twitter. It’s also less populated, but only in the sense of 200 million Twitterabble versus a few million Mastodonians. There’s still lots going on.
Bennelong Lurker says:
Monday, November 7, 2022 at 4:37 pm
Been out today (challenging tooth extraction) so just tuned in to Robodebt RC. Did I miss anything significant this morning?
_________________________________
The most significant thing so far today is that Human Services obtained tax data from the ATO under a 2004 protocol and did not follow the letter that should have been sent to the customer (as set out in the protocol), did not do any actual manual checks to confirm that a debt was actually owed (as required by the protocol) and a few other breaches of the agreement with the ATO.
And for our resident Shorten hater, the current deputy CEO of Human Services (since 2020) just agreed that the data matching process prior to Robodebt was incredibly different from what later transpired. “Rational” was the comment from Commissioner Holmes in regard to the prior data matching process.