Freshwater Strategy: 56-44 to Labor in Victoria

Another Victorian state election poll fails to corroborate Newspoll’s finding of a narrowing gap. Also: the Poll Bludger election guide expands to cover the Legislative Council.

The Financial Review has a poll from Freshwater Strategy, which made its debut for the paper three weeks ago with a New South Wales poll, that credits Labor with a lead of 56-44, from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 34%, Greens 14% and others 15%. Daniel Andrews is on 39% approval and 48% disapproval, Matthew Guy is at 32% aod 48%, and Andrews leads 40% to 28% as preferred premier. We are also told that Jacinta Allan’s rating is neutral, Tim Pallas is at minus 12, the Labor brand is at plus 10 and the Liberals are on minus six. “Close to 60 per cent of Victorians” including 39% of Labor voters, believe they were locked down too long.The highest ranked issue by far was cost of living, followed by “health and social care” and “managing the Victorian economy”. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1000.

Also:

• The Poll Bludger state election guide now comprehensively covers the Legislative Council, including an overview and the usual thorough guides to each of the eight regions. The upper house contest happens to be in the news today following Adem Somyurek’s announcement that he will seek re-election in South-Eastern Metropolitan as the candidate of the Democratic Labour Party. Somyurek’s, whose DLP colleagues include Bernie Finn in Western Metropolitan, tells the Herald-Sun he will represent the “sensible centre of Victorian politics”.

• “Prominent Melbourne art collector” Andrew King says he will pay the $350 nomination fees of the first 50 people who come forward to run against Daniel Andrews in Mulgrave. King’s theory is that this will divert voters from Andrews “by reducing his first preference vote, diverting votes away from him, and increasing the likelihood of informal votes”. On what remains of Twitter, Antony Green relates that the total number of candidates could exceed 600, compared with an already over-stuffed 507 in 2018, boosted by Family First’s determination to run candidates in all 88 seats.

• In a Twitter thread, Kos Samaras of Redbridge Group argued that the anti-lockdown parties, including Angry Victorians and the Freedom Party together with the United Australia Party, complicated Liberal ambitions in seats like Melton as they like were competing for the same demographic turf of asset-owning white voters with trade qualifications and incomes of over $100,000 a year. Labor’s voters in such areas tended to be newer arrivals with lower incomes and mortgages, many of them migrants.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

298 comments on “Freshwater Strategy: 56-44 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. On the hustings at the weekend, (Greens) I was chatting to the RWNJ masquerading as the Liberal candidate. The fool outed himself as a climate change denier, but more interestingly was carrying on about the left wing media bias in Australia. I asked him who and what he meant. He was scathing of the ABC, the AGE, Channels 7, 9 and 10, AND the Murdoch rags. (Tellingly, he didn’t mention Sky after dark!)

    He appeared genuine in his belief. I’m pretty sure that short of pictures of Dan actually eating babies his desire for balance would not be satisfied.

    It is no wonder the print media is dying. People expect the media to report the news, not to barrack, not to influence, not to pervert. I for one am glad that what worked between 2010 and 2019 (federally) appears to have passed its use-by date.

    So just to be clear for the cognitive dissonants (pun intended) out there:

    The print media in Australia is clearly biased in favour of the LNP – but the general populace, in Victoria at least, are not fooled by it. Those two points are not mutually exclusive.

  2. Rocket Rocket says:

    I think probably only next week when prepoll voting starts will the interest ramp up. I expect a mild TPP swing against Labor, but I think the Liberals like their Federal counterparts will see some of their ‘traditional’ seats like Kew and Hawthorn (currently Labor) go to Independents making their path to Government all but impossible.
    __________________
    It will be very interesting how things go forward from here. It’s possible that the realignment we saw in May might continue and really alter politics here long term.

    If there are outer Suburban Labor seats swinging to the Libs. Inner Lib seats becoming Teals, Inner Labor seats becoming Green, it might mean that majority government in Victoria will increasingly look like a rare occurrence. And for the Liberals, perhaps impossible.

    This favors Progressivism, A minority Labor government will have the Greens and the Teals to deal with. It opens up a lot of different opportunities for how government is formed.

  4. Rocket rocket

    The 2018 had the same vibe as now.

    Not much talk out and about regarding the upcoming election.

    The difference this time is the pandemic.
    That has influenced people in different ways.
    Some of which i illustrated above.

    The pandemic has affected the mindset of many people who believed the whole pandemic was a conspiracy, and govts of all stripes were part of it.

    I recently told a story of a friend to my OH and his brother. He is in mid fifties.
    He contracted covid in October last year.
    He refused to get vaxxed.
    He was in ICU and he was at deaths door.
    The medicos saved him and he was in hospital for nearly three months. He is still unwell and doing rehab.
    My OH spoke to him recently.

    He still thinks covid was a conspiracy and that the vaccines are to actually cull older people.

    Also that so many younger people are dying as a result of being vaxxed.

    Cooked i tell you. Cooked.

  5. Jeremy says:
    Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 11:02 am
    Nath, also be wary of the trolls on this site. Somethinglikethat, MAWBM, Alpo, here we go again, Grime are just a few.
    —
    And you’re a colossal jackass.

  6. Just at the local shops. New Lib candidate campaigning with Crozier.
    Not getting much interest despite being at a busy intersection

  10. Victoria

    It is quite crazy really.

    We are now seeing quite a few older people getting Covid who had just their two vaccine doses in 2021 or maybe their third in about January 2022. Thus their protection has worn off a fair bit. Will likely be the same for people who had Omicron early in 2022 – coronavirus immunity has always been fairly short-lived with the ‘traditional four’ coronaviruses and it seems to be the same for this newer one, whether the temporary immunity is from a vaccine or an infection.

  11. Rocket Rocket says:
    Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 11:43 am

    Also not sure if anyone else has linked to this – great analysis by Ben Raue (Tallyroom) on three-cornered contests, starting with a focus on Prahran.
    _____
    thanks.

  12. Rocket rocket

    The covid vaccine isnt perfect, but that together with the viral medication, has helped make it less likely to kill you.

  13. On my personal sheet I see exactly 1000 candidates atm between lower and upper house. Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party and Legalise Cannabis just had their nominations updated by the VEC. LC is running upper house only and DHJP is running 10 lower house candidates along with their upper house slate. 2 of those candidates are located in Point Cook and Werribee, which now have 14 a piece.

  14. So we reckon the really long ballots are going to basically just splinter the RWNJ / Cooker vote?

    So much random leakage of preferences that after a week of counting we end up back where we started?

  15. Just going on the cookers that I’ve known they are people that don’t trust politicians and they have gone from only watching the nightly news and flicking through the newspaper to reading social media and they believe what they see and this hasn’t been helped by the way the pandemic was managed by our so called political leaders.

  16. Rocket Rocket @ #59 Tuesday, November 8th, 2022 – 11:54 am

    Victoria

    It is quite crazy really.

    We are now seeing quite a few older people getting Covid who had just their two vaccine doses in 2021 or maybe their third in about January 2022. Thus their protection has worn off a fair bit. Will likely be the same for people who had Omicron early in 2022 – coronavirus immunity has always been fairly short-lived with the ‘traditional four’ coronaviruses and it seems to be the same for this newer one.

    Anecdotal,there could be a newish strain out and about in fair Oz.A mate up in Sydney caught Covid a few weeks ago on a train tour following at least six others on the excursion who tested positive once all were on board.Practically all passengers were over 60 and in his case having had 4 inoculations.He went straight into isolation with antivirals and was very ill for at least 10 days,one night almost calling for an ambulance due to breathing difficulties.The kicker was after 10 days he was still testing positive.

  18. Grime 1257pm

    Yes it is likely that we are seeing two new Omicron variants in particular (XBB and BQ.1) starting to ‘take over’ from BA.4 and BA.5.

    They seem to be more transmissible which is why they are outcompeting those previous two ‘most infectious’ strains. At this stage it doesn’t seem that they cause worse disease generally and vaccinations will protect most people from sever illness and death.

    But it does mean case numbers and hospitalisation are on the increase. So the more people that get their 3rd or 4th doses the better.

    Good summary from Doherty Institute –

    https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/news/centaurus-to-xbb-your-handy-guide-to-the-latest-covid-subvariants

  19. How are those interests rates and cost of living increases going to play out in the outer suburbs??? Yes, more of a federal issue but the punters will want to blame someone at the ballot box. Covid back???
    Looking more likely for a minority Labor government. Voters sick of the corruption the duopoly blatantly bestow on us. Inner suburbs going independent or Green.

  21. Jeremy says:
    Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 1:54 pm

    How are those interests rates and cost of living increases going to play out in the outer suburbs??? Yes, more of a federal issue but the punters will want to blame someone at the ballot box. Covid back???
    Looking more likely for a minority Labor government. Voters sick of the corruption the duopoly blatantly bestow on us. Inner suburbs going independent or Green.
    —————————-
    Labor has to lose 13 seats to fall into minority government and while the polling has them losing seats there is no polling evidence that they will fall into minority status. That isn’t to say it can’t happen but many outer suburban seats are on double digit margins and the government has to suffer a swing in-excess of 10% in a state that doesn’t normally swing that much.

  23. Matthew Guy will never become Premier.
    He is a decent individual, but a political apparatchik who grabbed the Leadership when his party was drowning.
    His coming loss will almost certainly end his political career. His replacement is not currently in the Parliament. If he wins Hawthorn back from Labor, John Pesutto will be elected
    Leader.
    Victoria, over the years, has had many strong and visionary Premiers . Bolte, Hamer, Kennett, Bracks and Brumby all grew our State.
    In contrast, Andrews has diminished the States standing. He is dragging us down. The perception,at least, is that he leads a politically corrupt Government, defined purely by secrecy and shonky deal making.
    When he is sworn in leading a minority Government he should stay in the job for a year and then hand over to someone in the Labor Party who can restore Victoria’s once admired standing.

  26. Al Pal
    Its more likely the government win a majority this election then loses 2026 than forms a minority government this time.

  27. Victoria says:
    Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 2:43 pm

    Al pal

    Kennett? Ars you frickin kidding.
    ————————–
    Kennett was a visionary in that he had a clear plan for what he wanted and went about achieving it.

  28. Mexicanbeemer @ #76 Tuesday, November 8th, 2022 – 2:47 pm

    Victoria says:
    Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 2:43 pm

    Al pal

    Kennett? Ars you frickin kidding.
    ————————–
    Kennett was a visionary in that he had a clear plan for what he wanted and went about achieving it.

    Yep selling off everything and throwing sand in the faces of the media.Great record indeed, such a person to look up to,I think not.

  31. Grime says:
    Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 2:51 pm

    Mexicanbeemer @ #76 Tuesday, November 8th, 2022 – 2:47 pm

    Victoria says:
    Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 2:43 pm

    Al pal

    Kennett? Ars you frickin kidding.
    ————————–
    Kennett was a visionary in that he had a clear plan for what he wanted and went about achieving it.

    Yep selling off everything and throwing sand in the faces of the media.Great record indeed, such a person to look up to,I think not.
    ——————————-
    That’s a political opinion that chooses to look at the negatives instead of the point.

  32. Aaron newton

    The herald sun is all about the narrative. Just look at what fox news does. Truth and facts have nothing to do with it.

  34. Victoria says:
    Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 2:52 pm

    Sweet jebus. When one thinks Kennett is a visionary, it aint worth wasting another word
    ———————————–
    Saying someone is a visionary isn’t endorsing them.

  36. I’m with you Victoria.
    Matt the lobster boy is still pursuing the Trump/Morrison just tell the lies loud enough and long enough
    and people will believe you thing and Jeff gollywog boy seems like a sexist pig with massive ego problem.
    Jeremy and co are delusional .
    the most likely outcome is the Liberal PV collapse just like the fed election.

  38. Kennett had visions. They were just visions that a lot of Victorians didn’t share. He was never as popular as the media made out.
    I normally suggest medical treatment if a normal person has a vision.

  39. “Visionary” might be the wrong word but as much as I despise him and think he left the state in awful shape by closing schools, hospitals and selling off assets, I do agree that Kennett was a bold premier who achieved a lot of dramatic change in his two terms. He left Victoria a different state than he inherited. In my opinion, not for the better, but he undeniably left his mark on the state.

    The thing I don’t understand is how one could credit Kennett with that, but not Andrews. While politically they are polar opposites, they are very similar in their centralised style of government, big personalities, large agendas, and enacting dramatic changes.

    Andrews has absolutely not left Victoria in a “shambles” or hurt its standing, any reputational damage that Victoria has suffered is due to the media’s relentless attacks that have created that perception.

    The same applies with the majority of corruption allegations – most of which Andrews was not only not involved in, but some of them were specifically AGAINST Andrews and his faction (ie. The branch stacking by the right-faction).

    But the Andrews government has absolutely been visionary. Not only with infrastructure – removal of 80+ level crossings, Metro Tunnel, North-East Link, West Gate Tunnel, and now Suburban Rail Loop which while people may argue its cost-to-benefit value cannot argue that it is visionary and transformative; but also with their social agenda: first state to legalise assisted dying, first state to ban gay conversion therapy, first (or second?) state to enact safe zones around abortion clinics, first state to provide Medicare funded IVR, decriminalising street prostitution, these are all major social reforms.

    If you hold progressive values, and feel that for too long Victoria’s infrastructure had fallen behind, the Andrews government has absolutely been visionary and transformative. Perfect? No, no government is. But absolutely visionary.

    Allegations of corruption, his sometimes aggressive persona, a 2020 lockdown that would have occurred in any state had it experienced the same outbreak (and that lockdown is the only difference between VIC & NSW’s days in lockdowns and deaths – NSW actually has more of both outside that 1 lockdown), national issues with the healthcare system that are impacting all states equally, cost of living issues which are impacting not just all states but the entire world, these are all just side issues that the media has pushed as a distraction to create the perception of a corrupt government and/or tarnished state, rather than one that has been incredibly transformative and visionary in many ways and let the country on a number of issues.

  40. Some right wing quacks believe that if they label Andrews as being corrupt often enough, then the mud will stick. Of course what really bothers theses cranks is the socialist agenda of the this great Labor government. I love it, because it shows just how threatened the ruling class is and this is as it should be. Labor governments should be transformative.

  43. The herald sun has photographs of Dan Andrew’s standing ALONE on the grassy knoll. They will publish them tomorrow. More to come.

    On the advice of one of our more vocal bludgers, I have sold my house and am putting the proceeds on a Labor minority government. It is a three horse race and apparently you can get $12! Haven’t you heard?

    I wonder if there will be 50 independents in Dan’s seat? Easy way to make $4,000 to punt! Any takers?

  44. So the freshwater poll is basically like a Morgan. Pfttttt. Only decent poll we have is the Newspoll. 54/46 to Labor(and that basically corresponds to minority Labor). I’m guessing a resolve on Sunday/Monday before early voting starts. Get your bets on next few days before the exit polls(we won’t be privvy to unless they want us to know). Minority Labor still way way overs. Get on it. Dr John, let me know your bets please.

  46. I’m honestly interested to see what the primaries are going to be in some of these seats, its a rarity that anyone other than the ALP Coalition and Greens run a full slate and now we have two (AJP and Family First). Mornington is a complex one. Liberal primary is going to be down here but the question is by how much. David Morris got 50% last time. He lost preselection and having served since 2006 he would’ve had a personal vote. In addition to that the Liberals have to deal with the combination of Family First, Freedom Party, a right-wing independent, and a teal.

  49. Yep, Greens to keep their seats and gain Richmond, Northcote. Good chance to get Albert Park and outside chances in Footscray, Ascot Vale and Preston. I’ll give em three gains off Labor.
    “Teals” to get Caulfield, Hawthorn, Mornington and Kew. That’s two off each of the corrupt major’s.
    Independents good chance of Brighton, Sandringham, Melton, Point Cook, Werribee, SW Coast, Benambra and keep Mildura and Shepparton.
    Also Independents are surging in the polls thus give em another couple like Bellarine, Box Hill, Morwell, Tarneit, Mulgrave (the only seat punters can vote against Dictator Dan).
    Lobster with a mobster to win 5 to 10 seats off Labor.
    Minority Labor, l reckon nearly should be the favourite. Get on Minority Labor Dr John.

  50. Vic,
    You are better than that.
    A cheap personal shot at Kennett’s appearance.
    His face had nothing to do with his job as Premier.

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