Miscellany: leadership approval and JSCEM (open thread)

Stable personal ratings for Anthony Albanese; election staffing concerns at the AEC; and a call for more territory Senators.

The flood of polling in the week after the budget is inevitably followed in the week after that. Here’s all I have:

• The tracking poll of Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings maintained by US pollster Morning Consult records no significant change, with Albanese starting November on 57% approval and 30% disapproval, down one and up two from the start of October.

• As reported by Anna Macdonald at The Mandarin, Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers told the Joint Standing Committe on Electoral Matters the commission was struggling to attract staff at election time due to low pay and “bizarre behaviour” at polling places. Specifically, Rogers said the May federal election was marked by “people coming into the polling place and recording interactions with our staff, shouting at our staff, and some fairly bizarre behaviour that we haven’t seen previously”.

• Independent ACT Senator David Pocock has made a submission to the inquiry calling for the two territories to have six Senators serving six-year terms on the same staggered cycle that applies to the rest of the Senate, as distinct from the current situation where they have two Senators each whose terms are tied to the House.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,077 comments on “Miscellany: leadership approval and JSCEM (open thread)”

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  1. Winds at Adelaide Airport 106k per hour. City 60k.
    Stores evacuated due to intense rain coming through the roof in the northern suburbs.

    SA power networks server reporting on outages has gone down.

  2. Player Onesays:
    Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 4:44 pm

    Barney in Cherating @ #1539 Saturday, November 12th, 2022 – 4:11 pm

    You just get funnier and funnier when you try and pretend you understand what it is saying.

    And you are not funny at all when you demonstrate that you either know nothing at all about the subject, or hope that the people who read your posts do not.

    😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆

  3. Cronus @ #1518 Saturday, November 12th, 2022 – 2:19 pm

    Dr Doolittle says:
    Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 11:33 am
    Cronus at 11.22 am

    The difference is that the Russians never controlled Kyiv or Kharkiv, unlike Kherson.
    ———————————————————————————————-

    Quite so, they were more accurately failures to control rather than Kherson which was total occupation turned into genuine withdrawal. Which is why Kherson is a greater operational loss and impact on overall morale.

    FWIW, I think the failure to take Kyiv initially was an even bigger loss because Putin may have been able to short-circuit the war at that stage and force significant geographical gains out of the Ukrainians. The loss of a capital is always highly destructive on morale. On the other hand, this failure to take Kyiv probably should’ve told us something about Russia’s capability, leadership and command and control but most of us just assumed away the importance of it.

    Russia down to their last 20% of missiles. It’s why they’ve been begging North Korea and Iran for them. China won’t go near Russia because they are afraid of being sanctioned.

  4. This is a brilliant own via very strategic thinker:

    Rafael Shimunov is on Mastodon
    @rafaelshimunov
    ·
    11h
    Did Twitter Blue tweet just cost Eli Lilly $LLY billions?

    Yes.

  5. There have been repeated assertions that Russia has run out of missiles, is running out of missiles, cannot manufacture missiles because of the sanctions, etc, etc, etc.

    Following a run of such assertions a fortnight or so ago, Russia fired 100+ missiles into Ukraine, severely disrupting energy generation and distribution.

    My view? Treat such assertions and assessments with a grain of salt.

  6. I’m currently on QF741 on way to Adelaide. We are quite far north heading towards Port Wakefield to get around the stormfront and will be coming in from behind.

    It’s quite a rough flight

  7. why should a liberal Arts degree have maths?

    Classical Liberal Arts comprised the three subjects of the trivium and the four of the quadrivium
    The trivium:
    – rhetoric
    – grammar, and
    – logic
    The last at least including maths, and arguably also the second (formal grammars). And as for the quadrivium:
    – astronomy
    – arithmetic (aka “mathematics”)
    – geometry
    – music
    All of which heavily involve maths (music was both the practise of sound and the introduction to physics, including mathematical physics)

    You could write a book on it involving an itinerant medieval liberal arts tutor (or rhetor), perhaps called “Di Caprio”!

  8. Our house including roof and pergola is fine. Best wishes to other Adelaide bludgers.

    One thing we changed on the roof a decade ago after a storm induced leak was to replace the ridiculous low capacity box gutters and downpipes the house had when we bought it with circular ones. We haven’t had a leak since.

    The circular downpipes have literally double the capacity of a box shaped downpipe of the same width, and get blocked less often too. Always get round downpipes.

    I know some people like box gutters for architectural or aesthetic reasons. But they are one Adelaide fad that must go if we are to adapt to climate change and more intense rainfall.

  9. Player Onesays:
    Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 5:12 pm

    Hey Barney – have you learned the difference between weather and climate yet?

    Probably back in Year 8 Geography and then several units specifically named Meteorology and Climatology during my Bachelor studies made the distinction pretty clear. 😆 😆 😆

  10. BKsays:
    Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 5:25 pm

    It hit 200mm/hour before abating. 65mm received so far this afternoon.

    Is this similar to the system that took down the power network a few years ago?

    Take care.

  11. Barney in Cherating says:
    Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 5:36 pm
    BKsays:
    Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 5:25 pm

    It hit 200mm/hour before abating. 65mm received so far this afternoon.

    Is this similar to the system that took down the power network a few years ago?
    Take care.
    ———————————-
    Take care BK and Chris Uhlmann in isolation.

  12. BKsays:
    Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 5:39 pm

    Barney
    It was the winds that brought down those power lines.

    Yep, but you, or someone else, mentioned 100+ km/h winds at Adelaide Airport earlier.

  13. Boerwar @ #1561 Saturday, November 12th, 2022 – 5:17 pm

    There have been repeated assertions that Russia has run out of missiles, is running out of missiles, cannot manufacture missiles because of the sanctions, etc, etc, etc.

    Following a run of such assertions a fortnight or so ago, Russia fired 100+ missiles into Ukraine, severely disrupting energy generation and distribution.

    My view? Treat such assertions and assessments with a grain of salt.

    Why do you think they’ve stopped firing at the Ukrainians in the Kherson Oblast? Why didn’t they use their magnificently large number of missiles to defend Kherson City?

    Okay, so to modify the comment… they are running low on precision-guided missiles but have a large supply remaining of dumb bombs.

  14. Barney in Cherating @ #1569 Saturday, November 12th, 2022 – 5:32 pm

    Player Onesays:
    Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 5:12 pm

    Hey Barney – have you learned the difference between weather and climate yet?

    Probably back in Year 8 Geography and then several units specifically named Meteorology and Climatology during my Bachelor studies made the distinction pretty clear. 😆 😆 😆

    You couldn’t explain it last time I asked. Care to explain it to us now?

  15. My CFS pager just said that Adelaide Fire, which handles emergency calls has been unable to cope with the volume of calls coming in. SO we have been asked to keep our eyes and ears open for jobs and contact the local group ourselves.

  16. Great day fishing so far. Bagged my first ever Wells Catfish – 35 pounder! Got some big Carp and two smaller Catfish. All safely released. Am told the Arapaima will feed late afternoon so fingers crossed.

    Just noticed that the Libs will be directing preferences to the Greens in some seats in Victoria. Not a surprise. They did the same in QLD when they knew they were toast.

    So for Victorians a vote for the Liberals is effectively a vote for The Greens. Would be like Labor directing preferences to One Nation.

    Only Labor can give Victorians a strong stable Government in these difficult times.

    Anyone who thinks otherwise can stick it where it don’t fit.

  17. Player Onesays:
    Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 5:58 pm

    Barney in Cherating @ #1569 Saturday, November 12th, 2022 – 5:32 pm

    Player Onesays:
    Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 5:12 pm

    Hey Barney – have you learned the difference between weather and climate yet?

    Probably back in Year 8 Geography and then several units specifically named Meteorology and Climatology during my Bachelor studies made the distinction pretty clear.

    You couldn’t explain it last time I asked. Care to explain it to us now?

    That you didn’t understand highlights your own limitations of which you constantly remind us whenever you try to talk about the science around climate change.

  18. BK, looks like a tornado from Crafers through to Stirling East. Plots a straight path of trees down and tree tops ripped off both on the map and to the eye.

  19. ‘Upnorth – Be Proud of your Pragmatism says:
    Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 6:08 pm

    Great day fishing so far. Bagged my first ever Wells Catfish – 35 pounder! Got some big Carp and two smaller Catfish. All safely released. Am told the Arapaima will feed late afternoon so fingers crossed.
    ….’
    ——————————————-
    Are your Arapaima a bit of collateral for the Brazilian F1?

  20. Socrates says:
    Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 5:30 pm

    Our house including roof and pergola is fine. Best wishes to other Adelaide bludgers.

    One thing we changed on the roof a decade ago after a storm induced leak was to replace the ridiculous low capacity box gutters and downpipes the house had when we bought it with circular ones. We haven’t had a leak since.

    The circular downpipes have literally double the capacity of a box shaped downpipe of the same width, and get blocked less often too. Always get round downpipes.

    I know some people like box gutters for architectural or aesthetic reasons. But they are one Adelaide fad that must go if we are to adapt to climate change and more intense rainfall.
    中华人民共和国
    There was a fashion for “Mediterranean” designs even Upnorth some years ago. Small eaves and small gutters and downpipes. Mighty big mistakes in the wet.

    Old Timers had it right with Queenslanders. Long eaves and big gutters and downpipes, house up on stilts to catch the breeze and survive the wet. Maybe it should be a standard across the country? We had 1000mm (40 inches) from a Cyclone in the late 80’s over 36 hours. Our 100 year old Queenslander, that was brought to the coast from Ravenswood in pieces, did just fine. Places on a flat slab no so well.

    Good luck to our Crow Eating friends.

  21. And yes, nobody can get thru to ses etc. could call mates at cfs for the damage on our street blocking some peoples access) but with wires all over it, best to wait for SAPN or ses and leave cfs to deal with more important matters.

  22. Boerwar says:
    Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 6:18 pm

    ‘Upnorth – Be Proud of your Pragmatism says:
    Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 6:08 pm

    Great day fishing so far. Bagged my first ever Wells Catfish – 35 pounder! Got some big Carp and two smaller Catfish. All safely released. Am told the Arapaima will feed late afternoon so fingers crossed.
    ….’
    ——————————————-
    Are your Arapaima a bit of collateral for the Brazilian F1?
    中华人民共和国
    I’d love to bag one BW. I’m told the ancestors of these came to Thailand via Cambodia during the time of the Khmer Rouge and Pol Pots’ year zero.

    The French had originally brought them to a zoo in Phnom Penh. Thus they may be French speaking Arapaima not Portuguese!

  23. Player One @ Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 6:20 pm
    “Barney in Cherating @ #1582 Saturday, November 12th, 2022 – 6:17 pm

    “It’s time for the beach.”
    And, there he goes.

    I think everyone here can draw their own conclusions.”

    We certainly have 🙂

  24. wranslide says:
    Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 6:13 pm

    Up north Cobber, do you put the carp back? They are considered a pest down in NSW.
    中华人民共和国
    Yes cobber. It’s the rule at this lake. They were big buggers, about 20 pounds.

    Carp also a noxious fish in QLD and must be destroyed by law.

    In QLD Tilapia are also declared noxious. It’s illegal to even take them for eating. They must be destroyed immediately and burnt or buried. In Thailand of course Tilapia are eaten. However their eggs can survive even after cleaning, so down they go into kitchen sink and then the drains to spread!

    I don’t generally consume fish in Thailand as most are farmed or freshwater varieties that we Upnorth find distasteful.

  25. Player One @ #1586 Saturday, November 12th, 2022 – 6:20 pm

    I think everyone here can draw their own conclusions.

    Hey P1. For our amusement, please explain, in simple terms, the significance and use of i in power transmission calculations, and also provide us with your expert estimate of the extent of losses likely to be incurred in transmission of Snowy II power to population centres. What sort of power factor adjustment should they use, in your considered opinion?

    Yours, in anticipation, yabba.

    We await your typical enthusiastic, erudite, knowledgeable response.
    I know everyone here will be able to draw their own conclusions.

  26. ‘davo says:
    Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 6:35 pm

    Just watching SBS, Russia retreating on all fronts, Kherson, Washington, Florida, mar-a-lago…’
    —————————————-
    LOL

  27. Griff @ #1591 Saturday, November 12th, 2022 – 6:29 pm

    Player One @ Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 6:20 pm
    “Barney in Cherating @ #1582 Saturday, November 12th, 2022 – 6:17 pm

    “It’s time for the beach.”
    And, there he goes.

    I think everyone here can draw their own conclusions.”

    We certainly have 🙂

    Lol, does Player One believe people care what they think? 😆

  28. davo says:
    Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 6:35 pm

    Just watching SBS, Russia retreating on all fronts, Kherson, Washington, Florida, mar-a-lago…
    中华人民共和国
    You win Davo! Prize of the day plus BK for his Dawn Patrol. Congratulations cobber.

  29. Player One says:

    Sure. Just as soon as you explain how it is relevant to the discussion at hand, which is about the difference between weather and climate.
    ___________
    Psychologically, yabba has a powerful desire to prove his intellectual superiority, even if he has to invent random pop quizzes in order to catch somebody out. He is adept at playing with his own recorder.

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