The flood of polling in the week after the budget is inevitably followed in the week after that. Here’s all I have:
• The tracking poll of Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings maintained by US pollster Morning Consult records no significant change, with Albanese starting November on 57% approval and 30% disapproval, down one and up two from the start of October.
• As reported by Anna Macdonald at The Mandarin, Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers told the Joint Standing Committe on Electoral Matters the commission was struggling to attract staff at election time due to low pay and “bizarre behaviour” at polling places. Specifically, Rogers said the May federal election was marked by “people coming into the polling place and recording interactions with our staff, shouting at our staff, and some fairly bizarre behaviour that we haven’t seen previously”.
• Independent ACT Senator David Pocock has made a submission to the inquiry calling for the two territories to have six Senators serving six-year terms on the same staggered cycle that applies to the rest of the Senate, as distinct from the current situation where they have two Senators each whose terms are tied to the House.
Tragicomic. I missed this tweet last night, posted in reply to news about the latest plague ship docking in Sydney.
Boerwar talks sense at 5:17.
320 missiles in a day: Russia targets short-range ballistic missiles at Ukraine; what is the result? – WION – Mar 2, 2022
Russia running short on guided missiles, firing indiscriminately – Ukraine – Jerusalem Post – March 17, 2022
Russia Running Out of Precision Munitions in Ukraine War Pentagon Official – US News – Mar 24, 2022
Russia running short of precision missiles, say western officials – Financial Times – Apr 29, 2022
SCORCHED EARTH Now humiliated Putin is running out of MISSILES in desperate bid to defeat Ukraine, UK armed forces chief tells TalkTV – Sun – May 5, 2022
Putin ‘running out of missiles’ amid claims quarter of Russian Army now lost – City A.M. – May 6, 2022
Is Russia running out of missiles? US, Russia send mixed messages – Jerusalem Post – May 16, 2022
Explainer: Is Russia Running Low on Missiles? – Moscow Times – May 17, 2022
Has Russia Run Out of Precision-Guided Missiles? – SOFREP – May 23, 2022
Russia ‘running out’ of precision weapons – UK Defense Journal – Jun 11, 2022
Russia fires five-and-a-half ton Cold War-era missiles designed to destroy aircraft carriers at Ukrainian forces in the Donbas after running out of precision rockets, MoD says – Daily Mail – Jun 12, 2022
Vladimir Putin running short of missiles as Russian forces turn to old weaponry stock – Mirror – Jul 8, 2022
Putin left scratching head as Russia RUNS OUT of missiles to make ground attacks – Express – Jul 23, 2022
Will Russia Run Out of Precision-Guided Munitions? – National Interest – Aug 11, 2022
Russia Has Run Out of Long-Range Missiles to Terrorize Ukraine – !945 – Aug 20, 2022
No more than 45% missiles that Russia had before the war remain Chief Directorate of Intelligence – Ukrainska Pravda – Aug 27, 2022
Russia ‘running out of Iskander and Kalibr missiles’ – The New Voice of Ukraine / Yahoo – Aug 27, 2022
Ukraine Situation Report: Kyiv Claims Russia Is Running Low On Missiles – The Drive – Aug 27, 2022
Russian Federation will run out of shells, artillery and armoured vehicles by year end – Ukrainska Pravda – Aug 31, 2022
Russia Might Run Out of Weapons, Ammunition By End of Year: Report – Newsweek – Aug 31, 2022
Russia Is Running Out of Missiles. That’s Bad News for Ukraine – Defense Post – Sep 1, 2022
Alexander Kovalenko: when Russia will critically run out of missiles – Odessa Journal – Sep 2, 2022
Russia Resorting to Out of Date Missiles as Weapon Stocks Run Low: Ukraine – Newsweek – Sep 4, 2022
Ukraine believes Russia has less than 50 hypersonic missiles left because it can’t get the chips needed to make more: report – Business Insider – Sep 6, 2022
Out Of Missiles! Russia Is Left With ‘Limited Stock’ Of Hypersonic Weapons Due To Microchip Shortage – Ukraine — Eurasian Times – Sep 7, 2022
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/10/russia-having-run-out-of-missiles-launches-barrage-on-ukraine.html#more
Upnorth
“ Old Timers had it right with Queenslanders. Long eaves and big gutters and downpipes, house up on stilts to catch the breeze and survive the wet. Maybe it should be a standard across the country? We had 1000mm (40 inches) from a Cyclone in the late 80’s over 36 hours. Our 100 year old Queenslander, that was brought to the coast from Ravenswood in pieces, did just fine. Places on a flat slab no so well.”
Absolutely, and I’m sure my time working in north Qld was what wisened me up to the foolishness of the rectangular box gutter and downpipe.
Socrates says:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 7:48 pm
Upnorth
“ Old Timers had it right with Queenslanders. Long eaves and big gutters and downpipes, house up on stilts to catch the breeze and survive the wet. Maybe it should be a standard across the country? We had 1000mm (40 inches) from a Cyclone in the late 80’s over 36 hours. Our 100 year old Queenslander, that was brought to the coast from Ravenswood in pieces, did just fine. Places on a flat slab no so well.”
Absolutely, and I’m sure my time working in north Qld was what wisened me up to the foolishness of the rectangular box gutter and downpipe.
中华人民共和国
Do you have a water tank Soc? We had big Galvanised ones with cement linings. Had to be careful of mosquitos. Mum preferred that water for Tea and Coffee and Dad for Home Brew!
Boerwar at 12 noon
Here is a story from the independent Russian media about 36 hours before Kherson was regained by Ukrainian forces:
“In October, the Kremlin began preparing the Russian public for a retreat in the region, which they assumed would be unpopular with pro-war Russians. Meanwhile, sources close to the Kremlin believe the announcement is meant to be an invitation to Ukraine to resume negotiations. …”
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/11/09/a-military-necessity-and-an-invitation-to-negotiate
There have been no negotiations (except prisoner swaps and the temporary grain deal) for about seven and a half months. That will not change soon, but there may be signs that it might change in coming months.
Further comments from that article include:
“According to another Kremlin source, the Security Council discussed a withdrawal from Kherson in early November in connection not only with the very difficult situation at the front, but also in the context of a return to negotiations with Ukraine.
“It’s not only a military necessity, such a step is also an invitation to negotiations. There’s some change in negotiating positions,” a source said. According to another Meduza source, negotiations are possible but not “in the near term.” …
As Meduza has already reported, the Kremlin would likely not seek a full-fledged peace treaty in a new round of negotiations, but rather a temporary ceasefire. The Kremlin believes that the Russian and Ukrainian militaries could agree to this without the involvement of either country’s president. Meduza’s sources close to the Kremlin believed that Russia would be willing to return part of occupied Kherson in exchange for a ceasefire, buying the Russian army time to prepare a new full-fledged offensive.”
The problem with the latter idea is that it involves a loss of momentum for Russia.
For Russian troops, a limited cease-fire would be better than continued fighting, but it would directly raise the question: why are they there? why not go home?
Those are basic questions now in Russia and the Kremlin has no answer to them.
We are now at the stage that Lawrence Freedman foresaw four and a half months ago. Here are a two paras from his essay in early July that are worth recalling:
“… Third, the Russians are unlikely to keep on fighting should it become clear that they are likely to be defeated.
One lesson from the Snake Island episode, as well as the withdrawal from Kyiv, is that the Russian commanders can recognise when they are in a losing position and withdraw rather than take unnecessary punishment. Because we have been through a period of slow, grinding advances from Russia there is a tendency to assume that Ukraine will also have to overcome a tenacious Russian defence, that the third stage may look like the second, except with the roles reversed.
This is not as obvious as it may seem. Not only will Ukrainian tactics likely differ but, if they start being pushed back, the Russians will need to decide how much they really want to hold on to territory at the expense of preserving what is left of their army. If, at some point, the Russian command see only adverse trends ahead they may consider the long-term and the need to maintain their armed force to deal with future threats, other than Ukraine. Russia cannot afford an inch by inch retreat to the border, taking losses all the way. At some point they may need to cut their losses. This would be the point where they might urge Putin to engage in serious negotiations (for example reviving earlier proposals on a form of neutrality in return for full withdrawal) to provide political cover for their withdrawal.”
That is where the situation is now. The battle for Kherson was a long time coming but in the end it was no contest, because of those broader factors just outlined.
Key point: we need a dynamic, diachronic view of the war, not a synchronic one.
Upnorth
No water tank but it is on our list of things to do.
However in the past few years our renovation budget has been occupied by getting rid of the gas and putting in solar PV, battery and electric everything.
We’ll do the water tank after we finish replacing all the windows with double glazed frames.
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 11:50 am
And The Greens in Victoria will gladly take the Liberals preferences without a whimper.
#ethicsfreegreenzone
—————-
This is a most peculiar statement given that it is voters who determine the order in which they will rank candidates.
Candidates, quite rightly, have absolutely no say in the matter. Any whimpering by a candidate is therefor pointless.
Now had time to survey the damage on my block. No native eucalypts down but noticed another large one just got finished off by whatever is killing them. A few large blackwoods have had their tops ripped off and one very tall and thick radiata pine snapped half way up. The top travelled a bit before landing on one of the two giant black woods, taking it completely down and out of the ground and causing minor damage to the neighbours Japanese maple. Here we go…
Yes. Unless Labor is going to refuse to accept anything that isn’t a primary vote it’s pure hypocrisy to complain about other parties “taking” preferences. I don’t think not taking them is even an option?
Socrates says:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 8:06 pm
Upnorth
No water tank but it is on our list of things to do.
However in the past few years our renovation budget has been occupied by getting rid of the gas and putting in solar PV, battery and electric everything.
We’ll do the water tank after we finish replacing all the windows with double glazed frames.
中华人民共和国
Good on you Soc. We had a scheme in QLD during the Great Drought to subsidise water tanks and retrofit them to toilets and washing machines. Was very successful.
I went to a Water Treatment Plant in Adelaide during that time and they were sending treated water to I think some vineyards in the Mclaren Vale, the end product was delicious! Mike Rann was Premier and a Nat., Karlene Maywald, Water Minister. Having a Nat. in a Labor Cabinet really pissed off the Libs.
Dr Doolittle 8pm
Thanks, interesting. The comments from Friedman were prescient, given he made them in June/July.
Ukraine is a lot stronger now, with large numbers of the mobilised reserves now entering combat fully trained. Russia shows no sign of being able to defeat them, even with the mobilisation. If you were Ukraine, why would you give Russia a chance to regroup now?
Crimea will be hard to recapture, but I can’t see why Ukraine would agree to a peace without getting back all of its territory except maybe Crimea? The rest only looks like a matter of time.
Plus I assume the defeat of the Trumpist candidates on Tuesday reduces the odds of US military support ending. I don’t see how Russia can win as long as it continues.
a r
Yes. Unless Labor is going to refuse to accept anything that isn’t a primary vote it’s pure hypocrisy to complain about other parties “taking” preferences. I don’t think not taking them is even an option?
———-
But parties don’t get to refuse or to accept a vote. The voter can vote for who they like.
Simon Katich says:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 8:10 pm
Now had time to survey the damage on my block. No native eucalypts down but noticed another large one just got finished off by whatever is killing them. A few large blackwoods have had their tops ripped off and one very tall and thick radiata pine snapped half way up. The top travelled a bit before landing on one of the two giant black woods, taking it completely down and out of the ground and causing minor damage to the neighbours Japanese maple. Here we go…
中华人民共和国
Upnorth you know you have had a decent blow when Mango trees go over. They are tough old buggers and their tap root is massive.
Socrates
“Crimea will be hard to recapture”.
————
I would think, with the right equipment, it will be relatively easy for the Ukrainians to isolate Crimea and very difficult for the Russians to maintain supply.
It would be unwise for Ukraine to attempt to take the Crimea. It has a Russian majority population and it would risk losing international support and its moral superiority.
Soc, Adelaide Uni PhD GIS student gave a talk at a recent conference I attended about her research on self sufficient veg gardens in Adelaide wrt water tank size, roof catchment area, backyard area….. Isobel Hume. Most interesting.
Plus I assume the defeat of the Trumpist candidates on Tuesday reduces the odds of US military support ending. I don’t see how Russia can win as long as it continues.
With the numbers as close as they are, there will always be enough Republican votes in the House, along with the Democrats, to enable proper funding to continue.
It is imperative that Ukraine appear to have the ability and the willingness to capture the Crimea.
Finish cutting off the one bridge, steal Russia’s idea about destroying electrical infrastructure, and then let winter do the work.
Russian propaganda that has worked quite well with the west for sure, until they invaded Ukraine. Now we see the truth is more complicated, that being ethnically Russian or speaking Russian doesn’t mean you want to be part of Russia.
Nope, none of the apologists for the Russians, such as alfred venison or Boerwar, have been able to explain why Russia is going cap in hand to Iran and North Korea for precision-guided missiles. Which are the ones they are running short of. With a glaring inability to produce more in Russia, due to sanctions. Hence the stealing of anything in Ukraine which contains a computer chip and the surge in imports into Russia of similar Smart Appliances.
Nicko @ #1620 Saturday, November 12th, 2022 – 8:35 pm
Exactly. Russia deliberately flooded the zone with Ethnic Russians in places like Crimea, Georgia and other enclave areas, so as to generate the ruse of populations being ‘Russian’ and wanting to be part of Russia.
nath says:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 8:25 pm
It would be unwise for Ukraine to attempt to take the Crimea. It has a Russian majority population and it would risk losing international support and its moral superiority.
———-
A lot of the Russians are recent migrants since the 2014 invasion.
A majority of Crimeans voted in 1991 to leave the Russian federation as part of Ukraine.
The international community recognises Crimea as part of Ukraine.
Dearest Leader Xi has apparently rebuffed Albanese’s request for a one-on-one at the G-20. Given China’s our number one trading partner, perhaps we should try harder.
[‘Phnom Penh: Chinese President Xi Jinping is keeping Anthony Albanese guessing about whether he will grant him a rare meeting next week, notably omitting the prime minister from a list of leaders he will meet during two high-powered Asian summits.
Xi will hold a highly anticipated meeting with US President Joe Biden on Monday at the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali, an encounter the White House said would help “sharpen” their understanding of the Chinese Communist Party’s ambitions.
The Xi-Biden meeting will be the first time the leaders of the world’s two dominant powers have met in person since Biden’s inauguration almost two years ago.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying announced that Xi would also hold bilateral meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron, Argentinian President Alberto Fernandez and African Union chair Macky Sall on the sidelines of the G20 summit and the subsequent APEC leaders’ forum in Thailand.
She added that Xi would meet other world leaders “upon request”, leaving open the possibility of a meeting with Albanese.’]
“We are awaiting any finalisation of any meeting,” Albanese said on Saturday. “It is not locked in at this point…I’ll look forward to having a constructive dialogue if a meeting takes place.”
Xi has not held an official bilateral meeting with an Australian prime minister since Malcolm Turnbull in 2016, before the near total collapse in the nations’ bilateral relationship.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/xi-jinping-leaves-albanese-off-list-of-leaders-meetings-20221112-p5bxow.html
“They are tough old buggers and their tap root is massive.”
Beautiful burl for woodworking too.
Nicko says:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 8:35 pm
nathsays:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 8:25 pm
It would be unwise for Ukraine to attempt to take the Crimea. It has a Russian majority population and it would risk losing international support and its moral superiority.
Russian propaganda that has worked quite well with the west for sure, until they invaded Ukraine. Now we see the truth is more complicated, that being ethnically Russian or speaking Russian doesn’t mean you want to be part of Russia.
___________
It’s more than that. Ukrainian troops laying siege to Sevastopol will put a whole other dimension to the conflict.
Of course if the Ukrainians can get the Crimea back in negotiations that is another matter. But a conquest of the Crimea wouldn’t be a smart move and I think they know that.
anyone whooping for the Ukrainian conquest of the Crimea is more invested in seeing Russian humiliation than peace. A return to recent borders and a free and independent Ukraine would surely be satisfactory to reasonable people.
Dandy Murray says:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 8:47 pm
“They are tough old buggers and their tap root is massive.”
Beautiful burl for woodworking too.
中华人民共和国
Yes cobber much sort after timber after a Cyclone. That stuff doesn’t end up on the scrap heap.
“Angry Victorians Party”.
Hehe. I can see a picture of our late, late, late? departed Sovereign saying “We are not amused”.
And they say Queenslanders are strange.
Upnorth says:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 9:05 pm
“Angry Victorians Party”.
Hehe. I can see a picture of our late, late, late? departed Sovereign saying “We are not amused”.
___________________
I believe they are an offshoot of the Angry Penguins.
nath @ Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 8:58 pm
“anyone whooping for the Ukrainian conquest of the Crimea is more invested in seeing Russian humiliation than peace. A return to recent borders and a free and independent Ukraine would surely be satisfactory to reasonable people.”
Thank goodness we have nath to talk on the behalf of reasonable people! 😉
nath says:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 9:07 pm
Upnorth says:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 9:05 pm
“Angry Victorians Party”.
Hehe. I can see a picture of our late, late, late? departed Sovereign saying “We are not amused”.
___________________
I believe they are an offshoot of the Angry Penguins.
中华人民共和国
Bloody cold enough down there for Penguins too.
Cat at 8.37 pm
For somebody who don’t like cricket, that is a pure sledge against Boerwar. We can have a sensible discussion about objective factors without bringing in innuendo.
Simon Katich
“ Soc, Adelaide Uni PhD GIS student gave a talk at a recent conference I attended about her research on self sufficient veg gardens in Adelaide wrt water tank size, roof catchment area, backyard area….. Isobel Hume. Most interesting.”
Thanks that is quite relevant. Xanthippe has already created a small veggie patch.
nath @ #1629 Saturday, November 12th, 2022 – 7:58 pm
Bull. I’m invested in seeing the wrong Russia committed in 2014 righted, and finally sending a clear and unequivocal message to Putin, Xi, and anyone else with similar ideas that you cannot invade and annex another nation’s territory in this day and age. That message is more important than peace. Without it there will be no lasting peace.
If Russia finds that humiliating, I don’t care. It’s neither here nor there. They’re the aggressor; their opinion doesn’t matter and their feelings don’t count.
C@tmomma @ Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 8:37 pm
“Nope, none of the apologists for the Russians, such as alfred venison or Boerwar,…”
I don’t see Boerwar as an apologist for anyone, let alone the Russians in the current conflict 😉
Edit: I see Dr Doolittle has already addressed.
Dr Doolittle @ #1633 Saturday, November 12th, 2022 – 9:13 pm
Okay, I apologise to Boerwar. But I do wish he wouldn’t look at Russia through rose-coloured glasses. There is copious evidence about Russia’s supply shortage wrt precision-guided missiles.
nath says:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 8:58 pm
anyone whooping for the Ukrainian conquest of the Crimea is more invested in seeing Russian humiliation than peace. A return to recent borders and a free and independent Ukraine would surely be satisfactory to reasonable people.
————-
I think a return to 2014 borders is appropriate in terms of natural justice.
But there seems to be a (strange) class of people that believe Putin must be rewarded in some form.
I suppose they are worried that the market for imperial aggression might collapse if Putin didn’t get something for all his efforts.
Angry Victorians? Probably just another preference-harvesting outfit.
a r @ #1635 Saturday, November 12th, 2022 – 9:14 pm
Well said, a r.
Especially considering the suggestion that it’s been Crimean Ukrainian patriots that have undertaken covert actions against the Russians. Or in concert with Ukrainian Special Forces.
a r says:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 9:14 pm
nath @ #1629 Saturday, November 12th, 2022 – 7:58 pm
anyone whooping for the Ukrainian conquest of the Crimea is more invested in seeing Russian humiliation than peace.
Bull. I’m invested in seeing the wrong Russia committed in 2014 righted,
_______________
Invested enough to send your arse over there to help get it back? Invested in spreading the conflict further?
Want to push that lunatic in the Kremlin to the brink?
Of course we are free from the consequences of everything over here.
nathsays:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 8:58 pm
Well considering that Crimea was recently part of Ukraine, its reinclusion in a free and independent Ukraine would be satisfactory to reasonable people.
Rakali @ #1638 Saturday, November 12th, 2022 – 9:17 pm
Yes, it’s weird. Sort of like saying, well, he’s put all this effort into doing it, he should get something for it. Like some form of bastardised Participation Prize.
Dr D
Your previous statement was that Russia has ‘lost’ the war.
Get back to me when Ukraine has pushed Russia beyond the 2014 borders and Russia is suing for peace.
Other than that I have believed all along that a negotiated settlement would end this war -whether by way of a cease fire to freeze the conflict, or by way of a thorough and internationally under-pinned comprehensive peace agreement.
Russia is never going to conquer and control Ukraine. Or vice versa. For me the open questions are when, how, and on what terms the negotiations would generate an agreement. I further assume that all sorts of pressures on both sides will feed into the negotiations.
My reading of the current situation is that the Russians have stabilized the Dnipro front. It is reasonably clear that the bridges have now been blown but not before the Russians managed to get most of their men and materiel across the Dnipro during the Kherson Retreat. As usual in a major retreat some units lose touch, cohesion or their way and get mopped up. Some sacrificial rear guard units would have been placed to slow any Ukraine advance until the retreat was complete. This has been reported as ‘chaos’. I am not so sure. Retreating in the presence of the enemy across a major river is an extremely difficult military task and the Russians seem to me to have managed just that. There are no massive columns of prisoners. There are no massive stockpiles of captured ammunition or captured vehicle parks.
While the Kherson Retreat is a propaganda victory as well as a military victory, it also begs a key question which does not seem to have bothered the minds of the West’s war commentariat – including the Bludgetariat. Ukraine had 20,000 Russian troops and (a reported) 3000 items of military equipment bottled up on the Dnipro Right Bank. All these were within easy range of 155mm and most within range of 105mm. Why didn’t Ukraine drop the bridges and completely destroy those men and that materiel? The loss of the equivalent of 20 battalions with all their equipment would have been a real, crushing blow. Never a better opportunity, IMO. If they couldn’t achieve that, then the prospects for a forced river crossing in the general vicinity of Kherson do not look all that promising.
The Russians are toiling away in a grinding attrition in the vicinity of Bakhmat and have actually made some small territorial advances. A village here. A few km there. But, advances nevertheless. I assume that the main drivers on the Russian side here are the Wagner Group which seems to have a bit of ability to attack and succeed.
The Kharkiv Counter Offensive seems to have lost momentum and seems to be bogged down along the Svatove road front. Beyond that, the Russians have succeeded in severely damaging Ukraine’s power generation and distribution on the civilian front.
I assume that Autumn mud is hindering a key Ukraine tactical advantage – off road mobility. The latter includes both vehicles and highly motivated, well-equipped troops capable of exploiting off-road mobility. The ground freezing may be the signal for a next general battle of mobility north-east and south west of Svatove which appears to me to be the best opportunity for a continuation of the Ukraine counter-offensive. Meanwhile, Russia can now transfer a signficant number of men and material which were bogged down in Kherson to the Svatove area. So can Ukraine.
But what would I know. I am only a Bludger Armchair General, Second Class.
Steve777 says:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 9:19 pm
Angry Victorians? Probably just another preference-harvesting,outfit.
中华人民共和国
That’s what you get for having Upper Houses. Breeds madness. Thank Buddha Queensland abolished its in 1922
Barney in Cherating says:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 9:21 pm
nathsays:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 8:58 pm
anyone whooping for the Ukrainian conquest of the Crimea is more invested in seeing Russian humiliation than peace. A return to recent borders and a free and independent Ukraine would surely be satisfactory to reasonable people.
Well considering that Crimea was recently part of Ukraine, its reinclusion in a free and independent Ukraine would be satisfactory to reasonable people.
______________________
No doubt. But if that reunclusion is the result of a conquest, with inevitable civilian casualties and the real risk of making the conflict deeper and wider, that is a grave concern.
Personally, I would like to see someone shove Putin out of a 10th floor window. This might not necessarily end the war because whomever replaced him might not want to start his career as baby Tsar with a lost war.
Personally, I would like to see Russia out of Crimea and out of the Ukraine Oblasts.
Whether Ukraine and Russia try to fight to those borders for a final complete victory is up to Ukraine and Russia.
My best guess is that something in between will be the negotiated outcome.
a r says:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 8:13 pm
This is a most peculiar statement given that it is voters who determine the order in which they will rank candidates.
Candidates, quite rightly, have absolutely no say in the matter. Any whimpering by a candidate is therefor pointless.
Yes. Unless Labor is going to refuse to accept anything that isn’t a primary vote it’s pure hypocrisy to complain about other parties “taking” preferences. I don’t think not taking them is even an option?
__________________________________________________________
The Greens have often “accused” Labor of relying on Liberal preferences to win in three-cornered contests. Yet Adam Bandt won his seat of Melbourne in 2010 on Liberal preferences, despite, or perhaps because of, Labor entreaties not to preference “extremist” parties.
Since then, the Liberal Party has usually seen the Greens as their more ideologically impure enemy and has recommended their supporters preference Labor ahead of them. The Liberals’ recent decision to preference the Greens first in a few key Victorian state seats, is just to cause Labor grief by increasing the chances of a hung parliament.
But it has to be remembered that preferences have to go somewhere, whichever party such votes are distributed from. The party which benefits from those preferences is not going to, or indeed can, refuse them.
The Liberal Party and its supporters will direct preferences wherever they believe such votes will be of maximum benefit to their side. Sometimes Labor will gain, sometimes the Greens. What Labor and the Greens have to ensure is that the Liberals never win such three-cornered contests.
Both parties are entitled to appeal to Liberal supporters, even One Nation and UAP supporters, for their preferences, but they should never, ever do preference deals with the Liberal Party itself. Labor and the Greens should continue to preference each other and let the Liberals make their own choices about preferencing, even while hoping the preferences flow their way.
I must confess that my culinary skills are found to be wanting. For those out there who fend for themselves, microwaved spuds are the ant’s pants:
[‘Microwaves can give you fluffy baked potatoes in a fraction of the time your oven can. First, scrub your potatoes and prick several holes in them with a fork. That’ll give steam a way to escape. Cook one potato for 7 to 8 minutes, two for 10 to 12, and four for 14 to 18, or until soft. Don’t forget to flip your potatoes halfway through.’]
https://youtu.be/CFUUSXkpDEg
https://youtu.be/UbpZijsCREc
Chaotic enough retreat by the Russians from Kherson. It’s not nothing.
Also, the reason Ukraine didn’t kettle the Russians on the right bank of the Dnieper River and in Kherson City, was because they decided that they didn’t want to waste munitions on them. In the end they turned out to be correct in their assessment because the Russians retreated to the left bank of the river without a shot being fired in anger by the Ukrainian forces.
The latest information I have is that Ukraine is reinforcing their units in Kherson with newly-trained troops, possibly those being trained in Britain. So it is far from being at a stalemate there.