Miscellany: leadership approval and JSCEM (open thread)

Stable personal ratings for Anthony Albanese; election staffing concerns at the AEC; and a call for more territory Senators.

The flood of polling in the week after the budget is inevitably followed in the week after that. Here’s all I have:

• The tracking poll of Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings maintained by US pollster Morning Consult records no significant change, with Albanese starting November on 57% approval and 30% disapproval, down one and up two from the start of October.

• As reported by Anna Macdonald at The Mandarin, Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers told the Joint Standing Committe on Electoral Matters the commission was struggling to attract staff at election time due to low pay and “bizarre behaviour” at polling places. Specifically, Rogers said the May federal election was marked by “people coming into the polling place and recording interactions with our staff, shouting at our staff, and some fairly bizarre behaviour that we haven’t seen previously”.

• Independent ACT Senator David Pocock has made a submission to the inquiry calling for the two territories to have six Senators serving six-year terms on the same staggered cycle that applies to the rest of the Senate, as distinct from the current situation where they have two Senators each whose terms are tied to the House.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,077 comments on “Miscellany: leadership approval and JSCEM (open thread)”

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  1. Boerwar

    Agreed on both (retreating troops were perfect targets concentrated at only two points and why no booby traps.)

    In the lead up to Nov 11 Russia was reportedly suffering 700 casualties a day, then reports just stopped. Its odd.

  2. Oliver Sutton @ #1803 Sunday, November 13th, 2022 – 10:58 am

    “Why else has Daniel Andrews followed Donald Trump and crafted a social media strategy for a platform dominated by mindless sycophants and spin rather than serious analysis?”

    “Mindless sycophants and spin?” The foundational brief for Neil Mitchell’s shock-jockery, surely?

    Mitchell is a very experienced scammer.

    He’s been leading his boomer audience by the nose for many years.

  3. I am not familiar with Neil Mitchell but he seems to be like any number of shock jocks we have around Sydney.

    Daniel Andrews avoids accountability? Well, maybe, I don’t follow Victorian politics closely so won’t comment. However, did Neil Mitchell ever criticise Scott Morrison, who wouldn’t know accountability if it leapt out and bit him on the bum, for lacking accountability? If he didn’t, he’s a political player like, say, Alan Jones or Peta Credlin, who you’d listen to to find out what the Right was thinking but not for unbiased information and analysis.

  4. ‘Socrates says:
    Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 11:03 am

    Boerwar

    Agreed on both (retreating troops were perfect targets concentrated at only two points and why no booby traps.)

    In the lead up to Nov 11 Russia was reportedly suffering 700 casualties a day, then reports just stopped. Its odd.’
    —————————————–
    I am very wary of any numbers reported out of any war, this one included. The range for Iraq War casualties was enormous.

    700 casualties is around 150 killed and the rest wounded. Captured?

    Non-battle losses: desertion, exhaustion, and disease have all, in one war or another, often been bigger numbers than ‘casualties’.

  5. Steve777 @ #1806 Sunday, November 13th, 2022 – 11:08 am

    I am not familiar with Neil Mitchell but he seems to be like any number of shock jocks we have around Sydney.

    Daniel Andrews avoids accountability? Well, maybe, I don’t follow Victorian politics closely so won’t comment. However, did Neil Mitchell ever criticise Scott Morrison, who wouldn’t know accountability if it leapt out and bit him on the bum, for lacking accountability? If he didn’t, he’s a political player like, say, Alan Jones or Peta Credlin, who you’d listen to to find out what the Right was thinking but not for unbiased information and analysis.

    Mitchell isn’t a ‘shock jock’ .

    He’s more a quiet manipulator.

  6. Socrates says:
    Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 11:03 am
    Boerwar

    Agreed on both (retreating troops were perfect targets concentrated at only two points and why no booby traps.)

    In the lead up to Nov 11 Russia was reportedly suffering 700 casualties a day, then reports just stopped. Its odd.

    It looks like an agreed – even supervised – withdrawal on Ukrainian terms.

    The Cossacks are whipping the Russians, as they always have.

  7. basickly three news corp jernalists as huit used to work for murdock vanonselen protends now to be a progresive but i think he is still a liberal

  8. Oakeshott Country says:
    Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 8:39 am

    Rakali
    There has been a domestic competition for about 30 years.
    Like Australian Soccer, players with more than passing talent go to professional competitions overseas, so that all the current players are in Australian or UK competitions.
    It will be interesting to see if this extraordinary result spurs on the Australian Government’s commitment to have a Pacifika or PNG team in the NRL.
    The NRL would support the move provided the government puts up the cash
    中华人民共和国
    And someone on PB was commenting on the number of players in the NRL with Pacific Sounding names just a few weeks ago. They play good football and good on ’em.

    Maybe the Chinese can put up the $$ for a new team (that’s a joke Joyce).

  9. Upnorth – Be Proud of your Pragmatism @ #1811 Sunday, November 13th, 2022 – 11:28 am

    Oakeshott Country says:
    Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 8:39 am

    Rakali
    There has been a domestic competition for about 30 years.
    Like Australian Soccer, players with more than passing talent go to professional competitions overseas, so that all the current players are in Australian or UK competitions.
    It will be interesting to see if this extraordinary result spurs on the Australian Government’s commitment to have a Pacifika or PNG team in the NRL.
    The NRL would support the move provided the government puts up the cash
    中华人民共和国
    And someone on PB was commenting on the number of players in the NRL with Pacific Sounding names just a few weeks ago. They play good football and good on ’em.

    Maybe the Chinese can put up the $$ for a new team (that’s a joke Joyce).

    The best option may be a Pacific Isl RLC that could plays 4 games in Fiji, 4 in Tonga, and 4 in Samoa.
    Tbh not one of the Islander nations could support an independent team on their own,,,,,,especially when the players are split between union and league.

  10. Nah
    Gill’s long term plan has ensured that the Chinese will pay for PNG to be in their AFL competition. This will be a major diplomatic loss for Australia.

    I am just waiting for Mavis to tell us the next step for the Wannabees

  11. Rakali
    They did and do but may not in the future
    RL was unknown in the Pacific 30 years ago but broadcasting of the NRL and Islander players in the competition has advanced it over union significantly

  12. C@T

    “ And it was again the youngest of the American generations who were the most switched on to what was being taken from them. Also the oldest who feared the most losing what they had held for so long-power-to those same young people, who have then incited the insurrections and attempted to destroy American democracy.

    Notable exceptions included in both categories. Young Neofascists and older democracy defenders.”
    ———————————————————————————————

    I think this was a really good point about the youth vote, particularly in the is US election. They appear to have come out in numbers, unwilling to accept the status quo and aware of the importance of the need to save their democracy. It’s a pity that a couple of previous generations had been complicit in allowing things to degenerate so badly. The figures on turnouts of young voters was encouraging to say the least and more particularly because they aren’t settling for GOP lies and distortions.

  13. I read something which I believe is very true of contemporary Australia and reflects, in my experience, a big change since my youth.

    “ When dealing with the public sector and a large chunk of the corporate sector, there is now a near-Soviet expectation that nothing will work properly and you will not be able to speak to anyone who cares, let alone anyone who can or will do anything about it.”

  14. Sonar
    I think PNG would be more likely and both Australian and PNG governments are behind it but the cost would be north of 20M per year. I can’t see the Australian Government adding that to the foreign aid bill but, if they did, the outrage from Southerners would be amusing

  15. Oakeshott Country says:
    Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 11:38 am
    Rakali
    They did and do but may not in the future
    RL was unknown in the Pacific 30 years ago but broadcasting of the NRL and Islander players in the competition has advanced it over union significantly
    ——————++
    Ok, thanks Oakshott Country.

  16. Dog’s Brunch says:
    Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 9:20 am
    Cronus says,
    Have four consecutive generations simply assumed the existence of these gains, failing to understand the need to maintain them until they again come under existential pressure requiring renewed focus on their importance?

    As a lifetime union member (IEU and NSWTF) and a Fed Rep/NSWTF Councilor and Association President I know full well how some young teachers just assume pay rises , working conditions somehow just materialise. Hoping the shit-show that is education today will wake some of them up to the need for strong unions.
    ———————————————————————————————

    +1, I must admit to being envious of the Scandinavian countries with respect to the level of importance they place as societies on education and teachers. From my limited observations, it shows.

    Although I come from a military background (no democracy in that institution I can assure you) and even more so as an officer (management), and had only limited dealings with unionism post the Army, I’ve long understood and believed in the criticality of unions to our society and how rights and conditions have been hard won.

    I suspect (due in no small part to the Coalition and its intentional policies and demonisation of unionism) that there is a need to re-educate our society as to the importance of unionism before the collective knowledge and experience and benefits are lost to the annals of history.

  17. Labor’s China critics are an insult to Whitlam: Wong
    Phillip Coorey
    P

    Phnom Penh | Foreign Minister Penny Wong says criticism of Labor’s hardline approach to China, such as that levelled by Paul Keating, is an insult to former prime minister Gough Whitlam who founded the modern trade relationship with Beijing 50 years ago.

    Senator Wong, who will deliver the annual Gough Whitlam oration on Sunday in Sydney, argues China has changed significantly under the leadership of President Xi Jinping.

    To deny this was to be stuck in the past.

    “As China has sought to assert itself in the world, those differences have become harder to manage,” she will say, according to a prepared speech.

    “The China of today is not the same as the China of the 1970s, or even the 2000s. Some may prefer to pretend otherwise, but President Xi himself has made that clear.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-s-china-critics-are-an-insult-to-whitlam-wong-20221112-p5bxpo

  18. Albanese breaks ice during chat with Chinese Premier
    Phillip Coorey

    Phnom Penh | Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has had an informal discussion with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, the first face-to-face chat between Australian and Chinese leaders in three years.

    The pair were captured on camera chatting before Saturday night’s gala dinner for the East Asia/ASEAN summit in Cambodia.

    Mr Albanese’s office said: “They were seated near each other at the head table and had a conversation”.

    “It was the first time the PM had met Premier Li, they exchanged greetings, and they spoke briefly about the 50-year anniversary (of the modern relationship) between our two countries.”

    Mr Li sought out Mr Albanese for a conversation. It was also Mr Li who was quick to send Mr Albanese a congratulatory message upon his election in May in what was regarded as an overture by Beijing to try and reset the relationship.

    Mr Albanese is trying for a formal bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Bali which starts Monday.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/albanese-breaks-ice-during-chat-with-chinese-premier-20221113-p5bxsu

  19. Oliver Sutton @ #1825 Sunday, November 13th, 2022 – 12:01 pm

    Coalition election rally underway in Melbourne.

    “The event has also been targeted by protesters dressed as lobsters …”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/nov/13/australia-news-live-anthony-albanese-politics-summit-cambodia-xi-jinping-tanya-plibersek-weather-storms-environment-cop-climate-change

    It wouldn’t shock if there’s a mobster or two lurking at the gathering.

  20. The Global Times has been relatively silent on Australia for a while now. I interpret this to mean that the Chicommies are trying to figure out the pros and cons of the value of Xi chatting with Albanese.

  21. Socrates and Boerwar Dr Doolittle and other interested Bludgers

    Compared to other wars this century (particularly shorter ones so not Afghanistan) I get the impression we receive far less up-to-the-moment information on the Russian war in Ukraine, most information (at least msm) seems to be promulgated 48-72 hours later, well after the event.

    Am I imagining this? I wonder if this is a deliberate tactic from the Ukraine/US perspective aimed at preventing social media in particular from telegraphing tactical moves? If so, it is a little ironic given that we are in the Information Age and particularly given that the embedding of CNN’s Christianne Ammanpour with military units was once the modus operandi of media military reporting.

    I’m sensing a change in military media atmospherics, again, particularly so given that satellites and drones are actually providing the military with better, more timely and accurate information than ever before.

    (Noting of course that there are some exceptions to the above so I’m speaking generally about this topic). Remember the days when we watched the Sock and Awe wrought on Baghdad, by the minute.

  22. From what i am reading on the Russian retreat from Kherson it was not the debacle they suffered running from Kyiv or Kharkiv. They certainly got a large proportion of their troops out, maybe not so much of their gear. They have left behind a considerable amount of ammo but not the same amounts they have left before.

    Lots of vehicles, but i suspect many of those are going to be suitable for spare parts rather than back in service. Saw one post about a particular tank the Ukrainian’s have recovered in working order in Kherson, that was captured off the Russians months ago, then got captured by the Russians and put back into service, and is now back with the Ukrainians. War is weird and they should probably put it in a museum somewhere. 🙂

    Another where the Russians left a whole S300 battery, all set up, behind in Kherson. Bit of debate on twitter that it may be an inflatable decoy. 🙂

    Nothing good in this for the Russians except perhaps an opportunity to redeploy troops from Kherson to other areas where they will be more use. Initiative still with Ukraine though.

  23. Cronus
    I always thought that Afghanistan’s villagers knew much more about Australian operations than did Australian civilians.
    There was(is?) a substantial body of military thought that the US did not lose the Vietnam War in Vietnam. It lost it in US lounge rooms.
    The response was to sped billions on information management.
    One way of roping in journalists was to embed them. IMO this resulted in almost total failure by the MSM to inform our Home Front during the Afghanistan War. We were losing that War for two decades and we were bundled out in a shambles at the end.
    Howard came up with a war objective that was truly pathetic but which was almost completely unchallenged by the MSM. We were ‘Running the course’ in Afghanistan. I can’t recall a single journalist ask Howard what ‘the course’ actually was. The truth was that were were going round in circles.
    Part of the challenge with war reporting coming out of Ukraine and being distributed in Ukraine’s national supporters, is to maintain morale. Truth will generally be manipulated to this end.
    I agree with your view that the timing of the release of data is being manipulated for strategic (national morale) and tactical (disinform the enemy) reasons. One outcome is that there is very often a lag between what is happening and when we get to know about it.
    That said, there are numerous independent sources of data which cannot be controlled and these provide useful information to test the official story lines.

  24. Victorian opposition leader Matthew Guy has vowed a Coalition government would freeze household’s electricity supply charges for six months next year, in an effort to reduce the burden of rising costs of power bills.
    And then what?

  25. imacca

    One of the huge lessons of the Ukraine War is that stocks and flows of missiles are crucial determinants of failure and success in any given battle.

    I get the sinking feeling that Australia is ‘good’ for a week’s worth of serious war fighting and that that will be that.

  26. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 11:24 am
    BtG
    “What would would motivate Ukraine give 20-30,000 Russian soldiers a free pass to safety instead of annihilating them?”
    ——————————————————————————————-

    Fair question imo. I wonder if it’s an issue of optics, the Ukraine wanting to continue to be seen to be morally better than the Russians? Perhaps annihilating thousands of trapped soldiers like fish in a barrel was considered as a step too far, likely to somehow undermine the moral superiority which Ukraine rightly holds for any number of reasons. Capturing them rather than letting them escape however seems more logical, again for numerous reasons though housing, feeding, policing and transporting them anywhere is a huge logistical problem. Again, we seem to be devoid of the usual information available to make any practical assumptions.

  27. ‘BK says:
    Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 12:22 pm

    Victorian opposition leader Matthew Guy has vowed a Coalition government would freeze household’s electricity supply charges for six months next year, in an effort to reduce the burden of rising costs of power bills.
    And then what?’
    ============================
    LOL. Inside every Liberal there is a Greens Trot just busting to get out.

  28. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/12/elon-musk-twitter-chaos-enleashed

    Chaos unleashed: Elon Musk’s wild ride at helm of Twitter could bring it down

    Elon Musk has unleashed chaos at Twitter in the few short weeks since he took the helm of the company, and experts say lawsuits, regulatory intervention and ultimate financial collapse could be on the horizon.

    This is bad news for Musk, who after purchasing Twitter for $44bn is under intense pressure to make the company profitable. The billionaire said Twitter was losing more than $4m a day and told staff on Thursday that “bankruptcy is not out of the question”.

  29. Cronus
    The only logical explanation is that either it did not happen – and 20,000 Russian soldiers and their equipment are in the bag – or that Ukraine could not do it.
    No self-respecting general fighting a war of national survival is going to do anything other than to try to kill and destroy whatever he has got in the cauldron.
    Probably the major single strategic consideration once withdrawal became inevitable was to make sure that the bridges were blown. This would have been worth a few thousand soldiers to ensure.

  30. Cronus

    The history of prisoner exchange in the American Civil War illustrates some of the considerations that apply.

    Most armies are quite happy to put up wire cages and pop the prisoners in. Letting them go to fight again is extremely problematic.

    The history of what happens to prisoners when logistics are iffy is horrific. (Andersonville), Russian prisoners on the Eastern Front resorting to cannibalism, etc, etc, etc.)

    (Dad was on the Burma Railroad).

  31. Cronus
    The US has been into ” secular, constitutional rule-of-law” a wee bit longer than “4 generations” . Or at least they were meant to be.

  32. Oakeshott Country says:
    Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 11:35 am
    Nah
    Gill’s long term plan has ensured that the Chinese will pay for PNG to be in their AFL competition. This will be a major diplomatic loss for Australia.

    I am just waiting for Mavis to tell us the next step for the Wannabees
    ———————————————————————————————

    The disaster that has become the Wallabies over the past twenty years seems to me to be analogous to the West Indies cricket team. The descent for both teams has been long, slow, structural and inexorable (from a management and prayer perspective) probably to the point of no return.

    I’ve a friend here in QLD who is very well connected in rugby circles and he has noted for the past decade that even at high school level, the talent always leaves for the greener pastures of rugby league. More money, more opportunity (so many more teams), better management and guaranteed survival of the sport nationwide. Parents invariably guide their progeny to rugby league up here apparently because it’s the sport that is perceived to have a long term future. The success of attracting Pacific Islanders away from Union in particular has been highly successful as shown by this coming weekend’s RLWC. Furthermore, our Australian women’s league team is far more successful than our rugby union women (excluding the Sevens).

  33. Rakali says:
    Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 11:41 am
    I read something which I believe is very true of contemporary Australia and reflects, in my experience, a big change since my youth.

    “ When dealing with the public sector and a large chunk of the corporate sector, there is now a near-Soviet expectation that nothing will work properly and you will not be able to speak to anyone who cares, let alone anyone who can or will do anything about it.”
    ———————————————————————————————

    This has certainly been my experience since covid.

  34. BK says:
    Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 12:22 pm
    Victorian opposition leader Matthew Guy has vowed a Coalition government would freeze household’s electricity supply charges for six months next year, in an effort to reduce the burden of rising costs of power bills.
    And then what?
    ———————————————————————————————

    That doesn’t sound much like the capitalist free market ideology normally espoused and deified by the Liberals. Must be today’s thought bubble.

  35. Cronus

    I think your perception of delay in Ukraine battle reporting is correct. Several Ukraine sources I follow acknowledge that Kyiv usually delays official reports 24 ot 48 hours so that they are always after the fact. They don’t want to give away any real time intelligence to their enemy till each battle is complete. Likewise the ISW site’s reports are usually published a day or two after the events described.

    For major offensives Kyiv has announced explicit news blackouts several days in advance. They don’t want to give away when or where.

    Boerwar

    One thought on Ukraine and the Russian withdrawal. What if there was a quid pro quo deal that the Russians would not destroy the city on the way out in return for escaping alive? If Kherson had been pounded Mariupol style, then Ukraine would probably still have won, but would have ended up with 300,000 homeless civilians to be housed elsewhere in the country.


  36. davesays:
    Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 9:42 am
    6 feared dead after two planes collide over Dallas air show as spectators watch

    Two vintage warplanes collided over an airshow in Dallas, the FAA said.

    The collision happened about 1:20 p.m. as they were flying over the Wings Over Dallas Air Show at Dallas Executive Airport.

    There was no official word on casualties but an ABC producer tweeted that six people may have been killed.

    https://nypost.com/2022/11/12/planes-collide-over-wings-over-dallas-air-show/

    Is it Biden’s fault because he C-I-C?

    Cronus
    Looks like a suicide mission by the pilot of smaller plane because the Big plane was going straight and smaller plane came at an curved angle.

  37. “though housing, feeding, policing and transporting them anywhere is a huge logistical problem.”

    There is that. However, to prevent the Russians bugging out the Ukrainian’s would have had to press an offensive earlier and harder…….and taken a lot more casualties than they have. One on one the Ukrainian troops are better trained than their Russian counterparts, differently trained (NATO, mission oriented training) and will generally be battle hardened and experienced while not as worn out as their Russian opponents. Ukrainians have i think been paying attention to rotating troops to quieter areas for rest and recuperation over the last few months.

    The troops that just took Kherson are a very valuable asset to Ukraine as both a force in being, AND, to train and induct new troops. Not to be wasted in direct assaults into enemy defenses if there are alternatives that will achieve the main objective.

    The Ukrainians are in for bad time to come in Kherson. I think the Russians will use lots of artillery from across the river and it wont be long till Kherson looks like Mariopol. 🙁 Ukrainian’s to reply with fires into any kind of worthwhile target they can find on the Russian side of the river. Raids back and forth??

    I think the main action and maneuver will shift north. Russians maybe send more troops into the meat-grinder that is Bahkmut?? 🙁

  38. I’m pretty sure in war effort terms, strategically speaking, casualties are worse than fatalities, because for each casualty it requires two or more other units to care for them. I can’t remember where I read it, long ago. But i believe it was in the context of one of the justifications for banning weapons like shotguns from war, which was attempted once. The more I think of it, it might have been in Churchill’s WW2 tome. He was a brutal realist in some ways.

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