US midterm elections late counting

Democrats are likely to hold the Senate, and still retain hope of an upset win in the House of Representatives. To be updated over the coming days.

10:59am Thursday Reps have just been projected to win California’s 27th. That gives them 218 seats and control of the House, with Dems on 208. If all current leads are retained, Reps will win the House by 221-214. Reps lead in the popular vote is down to 51.3-47.1, a 4.2% margin. Earlier, the Dem won Maine’s second 53.1-46.9 after preferences from an independent were counted. This will be my final update to this late counting thread.

3:27pm In Alaska Senate, with 80% counted, the Trump-endorsed Tshibaka’s lead over the moderate Rep incumbent Murkowski narrows to just 43.3-43.1 with 10.0% for a Dem. Those Dem preferences will help Murkowski. In Alaska’s only House seat, the Dem now has 48.1% of primaries, 8% higher than at the August by-election, and will win convincingly. Preferences will be tabulated Nov 24 AEDT.

2pm CNN has called California’s 41st for the Rep, moving them to 217 House seats and now just one away from the majority.

1:41pm Wednesday In non-counting news, Donald Trump has announced his 2024 presidential campaign. Perhaps that will assist Democratic turnout in Georgia’s Senate runoff election in three weeks. In counting news, the Dem’s lead in California’s 13th has been cut back to 50.3-49.7 today from 50.4-49.6 yesterday, but the Dem lead in California’s 47th has widened to 50.8-49.2 from 50.6-49.4 yesterday. CNN currently has the House at 216-205 to the Reps, wha are two wins away from a majority.

3:03pm Dems have overturned a Rep lead in California’s 13th district, and now lead 50.4-49.6 with 58% in. But trends in other California seats are good for the Reps. Also, New York’s 22nd has been called for the Reps. If current leads hold, the final House will be 221-214 to the Reps.

1:37pm Reps will win the Alaska governor, so the final governors’ results will be 26 Reps to 24 Dems. Dems gained Massachusetts and Maryland after moderate Rep governors retired. They also gained Arizona, while the Reps gained Nevada. All election deniers who ran in key swing states for secretary of state – a state’s chief electoral authority – were defeated.

1:05pm Tuesday With almost all votes counted in Arizona, Dem Hobbs will win the governor, a Dem gain; she currently leads by 50.4-49.6. But Reps will win two House seats by 1% or less, taking their tally to 214 seats to 204 for Dems, with 218 needed for a majority. Reps are near certainties now to win a House majority.

2:17pm While California’s late counting has generally been good for the Dems, the exception is the 41st district. The Rep has extended his lead to 51.3-48.7, from 50.7-49.3 yesterday. The Arizona late counting below would be from mail drop ins on Election Day, which were expected to help the Reps.

12:35pm Monday Today’s Arizona counting has been good for the Reps. In Arizona’s first district, the Rep has taken a 50.1-49.9 lead after the Dem led by 50.4-49.6 yesterday. In the sixth, the Rep has extended his lead to 50.3-49.7 from 50.2-49.8 yesterday. If Reps win both these districts, it’s very likely they will win the House majority. Also some US media, but not yet CNN, have called Oregon’s sixth for the Reps.

1:33pm Sunday Clark counting has put Dem Cortez Masto up by 0.5% or almost 5,000 votes statewide in Nevada Senate, and CNN has CALLED it for the Dems, a Dem hold. Dems now have 50 Senate seats to 49 for Reps, and they will HOLD the Senate on Harris’ casting vote, regardless of Georgia’s runoff result in December.

In the House, Washington’s third district has been called for the Dems, a Dem gain. This is a major upset. Reps now lead on seats by 211-204 per CNN, with some races in Arizona and Oregon still close and set to be decided on late counting.

7:20pm Arizona Senate has been CALLED for Dem Kelly as he leads by 51.8-46.1 with 85% counted. In Nevada Senate, Rep Laxalt retains a lead just over 800 votes after a Washoe batch cancelled out with rural counties. But Clark tomorrow should be decisive. In the House, CNN has called four more seats for Dems, who now trail by just 211-203, even though Reps still lead by 5.2% on popular votes.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

At time of writing on Saturday morning, CNN had Democrats winning 48 Senate seats (including seats not up for election and two independents who caucus with Democrats), Republicans had 49 seats and three races were uncalled.

Of the uncalled seats, Georgia will go to a December 6 runoff after no candidate won at least 50% owing to a Libertarian who got 2%. In Arizona, the Democrat leads by 51.7-46.1, and although Election Day mail drop offs are expected to help Republicans, they are unlikely to be enough to overturn that lead. In Nevada, the Republican currently leads by just 48.5-48.4, or just under 800 votes, but there’s more than enough late mail in Democratic-leaning Clark and Washoe counties to overturn that lead.

If Democrats win Arizona and Nevada, they will have 50 Senate seats, enough to control it on Vice President Kamala Harris’ casting vote. However, as I wrote for The Conversation on Wednesday night, Democrats face a very difficult Senate map in 2024, when they will be defending 23 seats and Republicans just ten.

House: Republican majority no sure thing

In the House of Representatives, CNN has called 211 seats for Republicans and 199 for Democrats, a net gain for Republicans of 12. There are 435 total House seats, so 218 are required for a majority.

Two of the remaining uncalled seats used preferential voting: Maine’s second and Alaska’s at-large. In both these cases, I will call for the Democratic candidates. In Maine’s second, the Democrat is leading by 49.2-43.9, and won’t be caught on preferences. In Alaska, Democrat Peltola is at 47.3%, with Republicans Palin at 26.6% and Begich at 24.2%. Peltola’s vote share is 7% higher than at the by-election she won against Palin in August, and should increase further in late counting.

If we give these two seats to Democrats, the House is currently 211-201 to Republicans, leaving 23 uncalled seats. Twelve of these 23 seats are in California, the most populous US state, with 52 total House seats. California takes about four weeks to count all its votes, and Democrats will hope that late mail assists them to overturn Republican leads there.

According to this spreadsheet, Republicans currently lead in 221 House seats and Democrats in 214, so Democrats would need to overturn four current Republican leads to win the House. Despite the tenuous lead for Republicans in seats, they are winning the House popular vote by 52.0-46.5, a 5.5% margin, according to the Cook Political Report. I believe this popular vote lead is partly explained by Democrats not contesting many safe Republican seats, so Republicans won nearly 100% of votes in those seats.

One other federal contest of interest is Alaska Senate, where the Trump-backed Republican Tshibaka leads the moderate Republican incumbent Murkowski by 44.2-42.8 on primary votes with 9.5% for a Democrat. Murkowski is likely to gain in late counting and Democratic preferences will assist her to hold her seat.

186 comments on “US midterm elections late counting”

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  1. Thanks OC. I shall avoid from now on. It was hard going to get through the book on Wilkins. It was like reading badly written George McDonald Fraser.

  2. Yeah, it’s interesting with FitzSimons. I sat with him and Thomas Keneally at a charity fundraiser about 10 years ago and he didn’t need any encouragement to dominate the conversation. What took me by surprise though was his boasting about having 2-3 PhD students working for him on every project and telling Thomas Keneally to really get into this PhD ‘gold mine’. Thomas responded that he was quite happy with the odd PhD student that his publisher provided him from time-to-time. He sounded like he felt that FitzSimons’ spruiking about PhD resources was boarding on exploitation, but he was far too polite to confront him on it. Anyway, any doubts that I harbored about FitzSimons where removed that night. He’s a show pony and lacks humility. I think he qualifies as a Pratt!

  3. OC, SK, HH

    I wondered how FitzSimons churned these books out – every time I am at an airport I see another non-fiction thick volume ‘by’ him!

    SK – years ago I read a brilliant book about Mawson’s fateful Antarctic expedition – “This Accursed Land” by Lennard Bickel.

    And Thomas Keneally’s book “The Survivor” is a novel set years after a fictional Antarctic expedition in that same era, and I read that a few years later and from memory it was also good.

  4. Years ago I heard on the grapevine that he was on the look out for a Turkish PhD student to give a “Turkish view of Gallipoli” but when push came to shove he thought glorification of the ANZACs was the better seller.

    Living (or quite possibly dead) saints to the last man

  5. Oh dear…

    Rupert Murdoch urges Donald Trump not to run in 2024, threatening to back a Democrat if he does

    EXCLUSIVENews Corp sources reveal the media mogul is backing Republican Ron DeSantis – and could even get behind a ‘non-Biden’ Democrat over the former president
    News Corp sources claim Rupert Murdoch has withdrawn his support for another run at the White House from Donald Trump.

    By David Parsley
    Chief News Correspondent
    November 14, 2022 4:26 pm(Updated November 15, 2022 8:08 am)
    Rupert Murdoch has told Donald Trump that he will not back any attempt by the former president to return to the White House and could even back a Democrat against him, sources close to the media mogul have told i.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/rupert-murdoch-urges-donald-trump-not-run-2024-threatening-democrat-ron-desantis-1970742

  9. Florida Senator Rick Scott challenging McConnell for Senate Minority leader…

    The status quo is broken and big change is needed. It’s time for new leadership in the Senate that unites Republicans to advance a bold conservative agenda.

    That’s why I’m running to be the Senate Republican Leader.

  11. Re the discussions of the Dems and Repubs and the distance between them, I have heard it claimed a few times that in the mid 20th century they were so close that they looked longingly at the contrast between the UK Conservatives and Labour, and wondered how they could replicate it. Whether by design or not, the primary system has probably contributed to their drift further apart, as the more dedicated parts of the electorate decide who to nominate in a self-reinforcing cycle.

    Now there has been a reaction to the drift apart and the vacating of the centre, and more and more states are adopting some kind of runoff system, whether instant runoff or some kind of two-round system. I assume this will have its desired goal of recentring the parties. (As others note, so will this missing red wave.)

    But it makes me wonder where they’ll end up. I do think Americans have a problem, in that they’re very sure about what government is *not* for, but they’re much less clear about what it *is* for.

  13. Would the Dems be able to select a moderate repug as their candidate? Or is the caucus candidate too important for other reasons?

    Be wild if they did.

  16. It is possible, maybe likely, that some of the nutter GOP will not vote for McCarthy unless he concedes to their demands. This is ripe for Dems . If McCarthy concedes to the nutters to secure their votes, maybe some moderates would vote for a consensus Dem selected candidate.

    Pie in the sky, I know. But if the nutters demand McCarthy sign on to rabid MAGA policy…. I reckon anything is possible.

  17. Outside of Florida, the Latino vote was 2-to-1 Democrat, or better in places like PA. If you are looking for data on Latino voters, the 2022 Midterm Election Voter Poll is the most accurate exit poll with over 5,200 Latino interviews nationwide plus in-depth in 11 states.

    https://twitter.com/realMABarreto/status/1592216451095867392?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1592216451095867392%7Ctwgr%5E20ea58903fd2e02dd9f9b70bec621c0ebeb5321e%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2022%2F11%2F15%2F2136353%2F-Reports-of-Latinos-flocking-to-Republicans-were-greatly-exaggerated-Just-look-at-New-Mexico

  18. Ven, yes that’s largely in line with the historical norm. Clearly there is some sort of market in the Latino communities for what the GOP is selling (presumably on conservative religious grounds), but by and large Latinos vote Democrat (with the key exception of Cuban Americans in Florida). That does suggest that the Republicans could make up some ground among Latinos if they can move away from the blatantly chauvinist America-first stuff. By contrast Black voters tend to vote Democrat at 90% or so, though there has been some data that younger Black men are receptive to some of the strongman imagery that Republicans are fond of, and the Dem-voting proportion has declined slightly over the last couple of elections.

  19. Also Venezuelans in Florida are apparently more pro-Republican. Cubans used to have a special status in that if they set foot on US soil they were granted asylum – very different to anyone else fleeing oppressive South American / Central American / Caribbean governments. I have a feeling that rule doesn’t still hold, but in the past it was a cause of some angst among those other groups against Cuban Americans feeling that they were getting special treatment as a political statement.

    ** from Wikipedia

    “The wet feet, dry feet policy or wet foot, dry foot policy was the name given to a former interpretation of the 1995 revision of the application of the Cuban Adjustment Act of 1966 that essentially says that anyone who emigrated from Cuba and entered the United States would be allowed to pursue residency a year later. Prior to 1995, the U.S. government allowed all Cubans who reached U.S. territorial waters to remain in the U.S. After talks with the Cuban government, the Clinton administration came to an agreement with Cuba that it would stop admitting people intercepted in U.S. waters. For two decades thereafter, any Cuban caught on the waters between the two nations (with “wet feet”) would summarily be returned to Cuba or sent to a third country, while one who made it to shore (“dry feet”) got a chance to remain in the United States, and later would qualify for expedited “legal permanent resident” status in accordance with the 1966 Act and eventually U.S. citizenship. On January 12, 2017, Barack Obama announced the immediate end of the policy”

  20. Breaking news from Florida :

    A huge white and orange behemoth filled with explosive gas fires up with massive noise and smoke and embarks on a crazy moon shot!

    And then after that ‘2024’ announcement by Trump, Artemis 1 launches at Cape Canaveral!

  21. And so now it’s official – Donald Trump is once again a candidate for US President. Hard not to see this a rather sad cry for attention. Significant parts of the republican Party and its base seem to have rapidly moved on from Trump since the mid-terms – I guess seeing his hand-picked candidates in winnable races go down in flames will do that – and polling of Iowa and New Hampshire (the first two nominating states of course) GOP voters puts shiny new reactionary Ron DeSantis a good 10-15 points ahead. That said, Trump still probably has a hold on a solid 20% of Republican voters, and it will be entertaining watching he and DeSantis (not to mention other candidates that might jump in) slug it out, pushing each other into increasingly extreme policy position that will end up being toxic in the general election. Pass the popcorn!

  22. Hugoaugogo

    Yes De Santis may not be the messiah in all those rust belt states that FoxNews seems to think he is.

    De Santis could play the ‘long game’ and sit it out – watch Trump crash and burn, or even win. Either way in 2028 Trump would be gone, and if say Biden beat him it would be 8 years Democrats and a pretty good chance for a Republican to become President.

    Having said that it is hard to see Biden running again – unless Trump looks like he has a lock on the nomination. Which could happen if multiple challengers come forward and he keeps winning those ‘winner take all’ or ‘winner take most’ states in the Republican Primary like he did last time with a plurality of votes, and knocking them out of the contest one at a time. If Trump looks like the candidate maybe Democrats really will think Biden is their best chance of beating him again.

    If the election had been this year I would have gone with Biden, but by 2024 I’m not so sure.

    Maybe the ‘break glass in emergency’ candidate – Michelle Obama? Of course she’s never held public elected office, or been in the military – same as only one President out of 46 – Donald Trump.

  25. https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/12/us-midterm-elections-late-counting/comment-page-4/#comment-4010878

    There are multiple reasons for greater polarisation in the USA, most of which are not going away:

    In the mid-20th century, neither of the major parties had a coalition of voters that was ideologically coherent. The Democrats had most of their modern comparatively progressive coalition in the North, but the Southern White Conservatives were their main base in the South. There is now very little of the Southern White Conservative tradition left in the Democratic Party, almost all of it having migrated permanently over to the Republicans and the Democrats` gains in the urban/suburban parts of South in the last couple of decades have come from the same sort of Coalition they have in the North. The Republicans had a more progressive tradition in the North-East, however, that has been whittled down in recent decades as the Republican Party has moved rightward and pro-Democratic trends have taken over in the North-East.

    Since the 1980s, cable and then internet news have reduced the reach of Newspapers and free to air television and radio, which allowed for greater partisanship in news by removing the incentive to have a broad audience. And the end of the Fairness Doctrine in 1987 has allowed free to air less broadly targeted as well.

    Political trends have geographically sorted partisanship by population density, replacing incentive for centrist/moderate candidacy with incentive for more strongly partisan candidacy.

  27. How Fetterman won.

    It’s striking how successful John Fetterman was in making big inroads in Trump country. I’ve got new data showing him cutting into GOP margins in working class, very white suburbs and rural/small town areas.

    The data shows the “blue wall” getting rebuilt:

    https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1592865507610337283?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1592873734049873920%7Ctwgr%5E67442250a92527b9aadb6ef0308013e5493a569a%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2022%2F11%2F16%2F2135404%2F-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-11-16

  29. Ven

    Very interesting. I think the two most significant wins were Fetterman and Hobbs (Arizona Governor)

    And the Dems results in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin really make it look like a blue wall again.

    My favourite was Michigan Dems flipping both State Houses, on new boundaries drawn by an independent commission. That says it all really. The problem in so many red states now is that gerrymandered boundaries give them control, and then they slowly install judiciaries who will let worse gerrymandering happen, and the cycle continues.

    The Senate in 2024 looks tough for the Democrats, but I am very focused on the Presidential race, and these three states will again be key.

  30. “And the Dems results in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin really make it look like a blue wall again.”

    Hardly, especially Wisconsin where Dems (Tony Evers) narrowly held onto the governorship and Repubs (Ron Johnson) narrowly held onto the senate seat.

    Even Fetterman’s gain was far less impressive in % margin than Josh Shapiro’s as governor in Penn. Also bear in mind Biden just about lived in Pennsylvania this year, where he has roots, and Dr Oz barely won his GOP primary with only a plurality of the vote.

    With Doug Mastriano at least enthusing the Trumpy base, many of whom didn’t take to Oz, Josh Shapiro did well and appears a good candidate for Dems. He won 56.3-41.9% so 14.4% margin.

    John Fetterman on the other hand ‘only’ won against Dr Oz – who was regarded less extreme than Mastriano but also less inspiring to the base – 51.1-46.5% so 4.6% margin.

    Everything about Fetterman seemed unimpressive although I guess he was a bit unique / un-Washington looking which appealed to some. Really, though, I think a good candidate would have beaten Oz by 10-15% easily and Fetterman may only have won because of the sympathy vote due to his stroke and his perseverance following that.

  31. The vote share for the House nationally now showing down to 3.9% lead for Repubs.

    Even if that doesn’t shrink any more once all counting is finished, that’s ‘only’ a 7% change from Dems’ 3.1% lead in 2020.

    I say ‘only’ because that’s low by historical standards at mid-terms – Dems had +9.5% in 2018 and if you go back to 2010, Repubs gained a whopping 17.2% – a historically large red wave that actually happened.

  32. BTSays @ #180 Friday, November 18th, 2022 – 2:56 am

    Fetterman may only have won because of the sympathy vote due to his stroke and his perseverance following that.

    Wait, you think the stroke was a net positive for Fetterman? From what I recall polling tended to show the opposite.

    Even if that doesn’t shrink any more once all counting is finished, that’s ‘only’ a 7% change from Dems’ 3.1% lead in 2020.

    Can’t compare a midterm result against presidential. 2018 would be the one to use if you want to compute a notional swing.

    Or even better, go back to the Obama midterms. R+6% would be ballpark for the expected result here. If not more given that Biden is less popular among Democrats than Obama was. In any case, the Republicans have underperformed by at least 2%. More if the late counting favors Dems.

  33. BT – I think you have thew wrong end of the stick with regard to the PA results.

    With regard to the gubernatorial race, Shapiro won because he was a known commodity with PA voters, and he won big because Mastriano was so clearly a fruitloop who would rig future elections – results in other states suggest that election integrity was a real issue for voters.

    In the Senate race, meanwhile, Oz, while clearly a charlatan, was a smoother and more media friendly option, who ran a good rearguard (if dirty) campaign with coded swipes at Fetterman’s health, and Fetterman’s semi-disastrous debate performance certainty helped Oz too. The trend in the Senate race was to tighten in a way that wasn’t apparent in the Governor’s race. FWIW, I thought questions about Fetterman’s health were legitimate, and I think it was a big part of the reason the result ended up being much closer. Rather than being some sort of positive for Fetterman, I’d argue that his stroke was a significant electoral barrier for him, and it’s probably a measure of his underlying popularity that he was able to win anyway.

  36. @Hugoaugogo

    Re Fetterman, it’s a matter of opinion and your opinion is also valid. I think actually you are right that the stroke lost him some votes as well as possibly gaining some from those who feel his opponent’s team misused it.

    The point still stands that he wasn’t a great candidate IMO, comes over as more of an angry ctivist than a serious guy who can work with anyone. But I hope to be proved wrong.

    Re Boebert, I wasn’t expecting her lead to shrink – good news if another election truth denier is gone!

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