Relevant news coverage of the past few days:
• Today’s Herald Sun reports pollster Redbridge Group believes “Labor will be reduced to minority government with 43 seats out of 88”, though this is based on “extensive polling and hundreds of focus groups in key seats across the state over the past two years” rather than anything specific. A “best-case scenario” is nonetheless conceded in which Labor wins 48 seats. Labor is predicted to lose Bayswater, Bass, Nepean and Pakenham to the Liberals, with Ashwood, Box Hill and Ringwood “under serious threat” and Eltham, Monbulk, Cranbourne and Eureka “considered to be in play”. Richmond and Northcote are rated as Greens gains, possibly to be joined by Albert Park, Footscray and “even” Pascoe Vale, the latter being the view of “party insiders”. Melton, Point Cook and Werribee “could” be won by independents, Ian Birchall in Melton seemingly being the best chance. Labor is “not expected to retain” Hawthorn, which I take to imply uncertainty as to whether it will be lost to Liberal John Pesutto or independent Melissa Lowe.
• Similarly, The Australian reports strategists from both parties consider seven to eight losses an “optimistic Labor prediction”, although the contention there are “up to ten in the party’s doubtful column” still suggests a bare Labor majority. The Liberals are still hopeful of a “train wreck” scenario for Labor in which the undecided break their way, but concede it to be unlikely. It is “understood the Liberal Party’s poll track has the two-party preferred vote locked at 50 per cent” across 20 target seats, implying it is likely to win a good many of them.
• Roy Morgan has an SMS poll showing Labor leading 55-45, in from 57-43 in a similar poll a fortnight ago, from primary votes of Labor 38% (down two), Coalition 32.5% (up three-and-a-half), Greens 12.5% (up one), “teal independents” 4.5% (steady), and 12.5% scattered among the remainder. There were also forced response questions for Daniel Andrews’ personal approval, breaking 57.5-42.5 his way, and preferred premier, breaking 65-35 in favour of Andrews over Matthew Guy.
• An audience of 100 ostensibly undecided voters recruited by Q&A Market Research for Tuesday night’s leaders debate in Box Hill came down 38 for Daniel Andrews, 34 for Matthew Guy and 28 undecided.
• The Age had further results from the Resolve Strategic poll on Tuesday, including issue salience responses that closely tracked a similar recent question from RedBridge Group in having the cost of living well in front on 27%, followed by health and environment on 12% each. Respondents were also asked how they viewed twelve election policies announced during the campaign and found net positive responses for all of them, with little separating the Coalition’s promise of $2 public transport fares (65% for, 10% against) and Labor’s investment in renewable energy under the State Energy Commission (64% for, 14% against). The least popular policies were banning gas exploration (34% for, 24% against) and raising the age of criminal responsibility from twelve to fourteen (37% for, 28% against). I am advised that the voting intention results to one decimal place shown on Wikipedia are sourced from the company itself. For what such distinctions may be worth to you, the 53-47 headline was rounded from 52.7-47.3.
Victoria says:
Thursday, November 24, 2022 at 12:42 pm
Alpha zero
Yep. Rebecca Judd. Darling of Herald Sun.
—
There’s always a tweet.
Matt Guy making no sense.
https://twitter.com/SquizzSTK/status/1595603043974017024
Where’s Karen of Brighton?
About time she was wheeled out.
Probably manning the barricades in Church street to repel the barbarians
The Liberals’ “repurposing” of the SRL money has been based on a false number the entire time.
It has been clearly reported from the start that out of the estimated $34.5b to build Phase 1 of the SRL, the state government is only contributing $11b. The rest is a combination of private investment, value capture, and a federal contribution.
That means there was only ever $11b for the Coalition to repurpose, and they have made $31b in promises.
Now even if you do either of the following:
– Deduct that $11b from the Coalition’s spending, as it’s already in the budget; or
– Add that $11b to Labor’s spending promises
Either way you still get the Liberals outspending Labor by $10b in election promises!
You either have $20b (Coalition) vs $10b (Labor) in the first scenario; or $31b (Coalition) vs $21b (Labor) in the second scenario.
There’s no way it can be calculated, that shows Labor are outspending the Coalition, no matter how hard Guy tries to spin it.
Why hasn’t Howard and Dutton campaigned with Matt Guy this time ..?
The data show one thing. The “insiders” say another.
It’s 2018 in vic and 2022 federally all over again.
The coalition have abandoned their teals seats to chase the cookers (vic 2022), just like they chased the transphobic crowd (federal 2022).
Like federal, they won’t actually swing the working class suburbs to the extent they hoped, because they confused a tiny vocal minority for a majority. But, like federally, they will lose the teal seats.
I expect labor will lose 3 seats to the greens, maybe 1 to inde/the teals and 2-3 to the liberals, the latter of which will basically just cancel out the 2 seats labor notionally gained in the redistribution.
While the liberals will lose 3-5 to the teals.
By the end of the night Antony green won’t be sure if it’ll be minority or majority labor. But no one will care. If you’re 1-2 seats short of majority, the crossbench is huge, your party leader is famed for his negotiation skills and collaborative approach and you’re relying on similar people in the lower house that you always need in the upper, does it really matter if you get minority or majority?
Like the federal election, the story of the night will be the triumph of the greens and teals and the failure of the liberals. Labor will barely get mentioned, despite forming government.
AJY says:
Thursday, November 24, 2022 at 1:26 pm
Where’s Karen of Brighton?
About time she was wheeled out.
Probably manning the barricades in Church street to repel the barbarians
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Not seen in Church St. and there are plenty of barbarians in the strip.
She surely wouldn’t be away sourcing a new bedhead for main bedroom given the current one cost $385,000 over 6 years ago. But she does get bored easily.
Voice endeavour
Yes wasn’t that a peculiar feature of the coverage on the night of this year’s federal election – carping on about how poorly Labor was doing when they ‘should’ have been winning bigly. And so much time giving lots of credit to the Teals and the Queensland Greens (good on them both), but so many of the commentators seemed to be missing the bigger picture : we were having a CHANGE OF FEDERAL GOVERNMENT and that is not all that common! And all the carping about Labor not winning majority turned out to be wrong after all.
So I agree – the phrase “minority government” is two words, and one of them is far more important than the other. Just ask anyone who has endured years sitting on the opposition side in any Australian Parliament.
Good analysis Voice Endeavour.
I too find the fascination with “minority government” a bit silly. It’s more symbolic than anything else.
We have a two-house system where it’s extremely rare that a party holds an absolute majority in both houses.
Labor already have to negotiate with a progressive crossbench – which already includes the Greens (along with Reason & AJP) – in the upper house.
Is there really any difference between having to deal with a party only in the upper house, or deal with that same party in both the upper & lower house, when the position they take will be the same in both houses anyway?
Trent @ #59 Thursday, November 24th, 2022 – 2:08 pm
All the more reason to vote below the line and give the cookers and trickle-down neocons absolutely nothing.
yeah but we have to sell the news to our readers so anything that is Labor not doing well, then we focus on that to the near exclusion of anything else.
Trent says:
Is there really any difference between having to deal with a party only in the upper house, or deal with that same party in both the upper & lower house, when the position they take will be the same in both houses anyway?
___________
No difference at all. Except under one scenario the Greens have Labor by the balls.
She’s right.
https://twitter.com/FionaPattenMLC/status/1595615020003491840
I think it will be a far more civilized place if Labor and the Libs are unable to form a majority government ever again. One reason why I support the Greens and the Teals.
So what seats do media have the ALP retaining – if any?
So, according to the media bashing we are getting, the WA result will be repeated except Labor wiped from existence
Does anyone know anyone who will be voting Labor?
Mind you the “Church in my garden shed” demographic will be out in force on Sunday, jumping up and down shouting at their “God”
And Victoria’s reputation will be?
The Bible State?
Our founding father, Ruperts, headline
Speaking of the Upper House, I remember it was talked about here that the Bolte government was somewhat progressive in the early years. I had a look at the composition of the upper house during the Bolte years and from 1955-1958 the Liberals only had 10 seats, then from 1958-1964 they had 17 of 34 seats. It was only after 1964 that they gained a majority of 18 of 34 seats and could do what they liked, so from 1964 to 1971 it was pure Henry Bolte/Arthur Rylah hard right conservatism, with neither Labor or the Country party combined having the numbers to stop them.
At least when Dick Hamer and Lindsay Thompson took over in 1971, that majority continued so they brought in more moderate policy without too much opposition, like decriminalizing homosexuality and abortions and abolishing the death penalty.
The Liberals held a majority in the upper house until after the 1982 election, and even then they were still dominating, holding 21 of 44 seats. On the other hand, during the Cain II years, Labor never really held a majority in the upper house, the closest they got was the fracas of the 1985 election in Nunawading where it literally came down to the casting vote of the returning officer, which couldn’t be upheld. So the Coalition had a blocking majority for most of it.
Further to my last post, that was a major reason why the Kennett years were so harsh. The Liberal party itself had a majority in both the Lower and Upper house, so Kennett could get his way. In fact the Liberals held a majority of the upper house for Steve Bracks’ first term from 1999-2002.
It took the 2002 Brackslide to finally give Labor an upper house majority, and they chose to reform the system at the time to make an attempt at a more fair PR system where it’s very hard for one party to dominate to the extent that the Liberals and their predecessors managed to, rather than to keep it how it was and abuse their majority after 2006.
However, upper house voting is now ripe for further reform, and I hope that happens in the next term for even more fair results.
@ Rocket Rocket
No stress, misspelling Labor didn’t help me!!
I am really torn by this election. I would love for Dan to lose and ALP win, just felt I’d be a hypocrite voting for him when I hated on him for 2 years. Probably would have voted the Libs if Persuto was leader, but would NEVER vote Guy.
Also feel VIC would be better off with a fresh leader post Covid. Albo instead of ScoMo has on the whole brought the country together, Jacinta Allen for me would be a perfect leader for everyone(or most) to get around.
“Rex Douglas says:
Thursday, November 24, 2022 at 1:39 pm
Why hasn’t Howard and Dutton campaigned with Matt Guy this time ..?”
I don’t think that neither of them likes to be close to the “stench of death”…. One because he is old enough to start worrying about it, and the other because he is incompetent enough to be contemplating his “political-death” at the next federal election.
So, did a few calculations re how certain seats would look if everyone voted the same as they did Federally. Definitely some interesting results if that happens!!
TPP
ASHWOOD: ALP 4.4% (ALP +2.3%)
BAYSWATER: LNP 0.7% (-)
BERWICK: LNP 7.2% (LNP +5.9%)
BOX HILL: ALP 6.4% (ALP +3.3%)
CAULFIELD: ALP 4.5% (ALP +4.5%)
GLEN WAVERLEY: ALP 2.6% (ALP +3.5%)
HASTINGS: LNP 2.9% (LNP +2.9%)
NEPEAN: LNP 6.9% (LNP +7.4%)
NIDDRIE: ALP 4.4% (LNP +8.1%)
PAKENHAM: LNP 7.2% (LNP +9.4%)
RINGWOOD: ALP 2.5% (LNP +0.7%)
SYDENHAM: ALP 9.6% (LNP +8.7%)
YAN YEAN: ALP 3.5% (LNP +12.3%)
Luke – I get extremely stressed before elections (I was paranoid Labor would lose in 2002 = Labor landslide, but I was also scared in last few days before 2010 as I was working in the far east and south-east of Melbourne and I sensed trouble = correct)
But your analysis above is interesting. As others have pointed out – if there is this ‘massive’ 8-10% swing against Labor in the outer N/NW/W suburbs of Melbourne and yet the overall swing is ‘only’ say 4% then that difference has to be made up somewhere and I feel it may well be in places like Ashwood/Box Hill/Glen Waverley. So Labor may have some notional and real gains.
Re Premier – I expect Jacinta Allan will be Premier in 2024. I am not at all surprised by the high profile retirements of politicians in Victoria and New South Wales. I think a lot of them have been ‘burnt out’ by Covid, but also they probably feel they did their job in difficult circumstances, the job they sought to do when they went into politics.
In health there are already signs of some older GPs choosing to retire earlier than they might have, and I am expecting many hospital nurses to leave in the next year or so. They are all pretty worn out after three years, not helped by dealing with various ‘anti-health’ types in society (sometimes in their own families!) But again there is a feeling especially among those over 50 that they did their job when it really mattered and now they want to do something else.
Those are some interesting results, Luke. Nice job calculating them.
If those are the kind of results on Saturday, that would very likely result in a realignment of Victorian lower house seats.
Admittedly, Yan Yean is a seat I’ve been keeping my eye on since gaining interest in Victorian politics in 2011, it always seems to shrink away from the outer suburbs into the regional areas beyond in every redistribution. If the swing is that big toward the Liberals then that’s a considerable concern for Labor.
Kirsdarke
That is interesting about the upper house – I had never really looked back further than Hamer. But I always remember my dad who was from the country telling me there were minority Country Party governments in Victoria who were there courtesy of Labor support.
“And y’ tell that t’ yoong people t’day, and they don’t believe you”.
@Rocket
That’s true. Albert Dunstan of the Country Party governed for the majority of 1935-1945 with Labor Party support, since he had good rapport with John Cain Sr., leader of Labor.
That rapport broke down after Dunstan and Cain Sr. died, and Bolte’s lot took over.
Good work Luke, that’s interesting to see.
Most of them land the way I would predict them to as well. Those results also neatly fit the expectation of pro-ALP swings in the inner to middle southeast, and pro-LNP swings in the outer southeast, north & west.
I would love to see Brighton & Sandringham but they are too difficult to model because they were LIB v IND contests, so as far as I know 2PP (LIB v ALP) results are only available seat-wide rather than by polling place. They’re further complicated by INDs running this time, but most likely with much less success than Zoe Daniel (especially since the Greens are not preferencing them).
As for the two main “three-way” (only ALP & GRN competitive but unknown 3CP order) contests in the inner south, federal results were as follows:
Albert Park:
ALP – 33%
GRN – 32%
LIB – 26%
Other – 9%
Prahran:
GRN – 38%
ALP – 30%
LIB – 23%
Other – 9%
What I would caution there though with Albert Park in particular, is that the federal Greens candidate was excellent and ran a VERY strong campaign for the third election in a row. Whereas living in St Kilda right at the border of Albert Park & Prahran, I have seen very little sign of a Greens campaign on the Albert Park side.
So I’d predict something more like LIB 27%, GRN 24%, IND 8%, and the LIB staying in front at the 3CP stage.
Whereas in Prahran, Sam Hibbins as two-time incumbent with a very visible campaign is a much better candidate than the Greens ran in Higgins, so I expect him to at least match their federal result on Saturday. Whereas I think ALP & LIB will both fight it out for second place around the 25-27% range (and the Greens thump either one in the 2CP, since both majors preference them above the other major).
Naturally the Age regurgitates a promise by Guy without comment but “analyses” a promise by Andrews.
William, will you have a live results facility for Saturday night?
Marko,
I think that would be in this range:
His pessimism is growing
—-
Kos Samaras on twitter.
Reports across pre polls are rough for Labor. The worse I have experienced. That said, Sat Newspoll should reflect that.
Ps if you are on this platform and don’t know why. Go out to a pre poll centre and watch
Yes indeed.
Victoria @ #78 Thursday, November 24th, 2022 – 5:08 pm
Has Kos Samaras got ANY of his election results predictions correct?
@Victoria
So are these reports worse than the footage I’ve seen of cookers screaming at little girls accompanying their parents in the voting booths? Shouting at them with megaphones that Daniel Andrews wants to trans them into boys?
Frankly I have little time for Kos, he seems like a stilted former insider wishing the worst on his former friends, and wanting their supporters to have minimum morale going into Saturday.
Will Mr Bowe be working for Channel 9 again?
C@t
He was pretty good regarding the teals chances at last election.
As i reiterated earlier, he is married to a sitting Labor state MP.
Kisdarke
Yeah the cookers are at all the prepoll booths being quite abusive and cray cray.
It is very disconcerting to say the least.
It’s official: PM Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia.
Rocky times ahead given the coalition he’s had to cobble together
but what a story! His old nemesis/ally/nemesis Dr M lost his own seat
of Langkawi, even lost his deposit.
And finally Anwar emerges with the top job he’s sought for so long.
Does he have a somewhat radical Islamic agenda as some allege? Or is he the moderate he’s long said he is. We’re about to find out, right at a time when the ground is arguably fertile for a move to a more Islam-oriented government.
Victorian election is looking like ,Repeat of the upcoming week before federal election
The corrupt media and the company pollsters who do it for newsltd , claim the Lib/nats are coming back with momentum
Election day
Lib/nats interal polling and vibe at at polling booth like at the pre polling booth its anger at Labor
There will be a few newsltd hacks tweeting – that the lib/nats sources say Lib/nats combined primary vote is 40%+
Election night – Will tell another story lib/nats combined primary vote will be lucky to get over 36%
I suspect the quality of Kos’ psephology is why he’s no longer employed by the ALP.
I once had a huge argument with him on twitter because he was convinced PHON was going to pick up several Melbourne seats….it finished with him saying wtte of “You don’t see the numbers! I do.”
@Victoria
That’s unfortunate to hear. Also I would like to apologize for my confrontational tone in my last message.
I just really hope that these horrible people are not rewarded electorally for their behaviour. This whole election campaign has just been barbaric and sick. And all I hope is that it’s completely repudiated so that Victorian politics can work better moving forward.
Okay. Subsequent tweet by Kos
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Note. Most will be animated voters who have already come off Labors base. So should already feature in polling
Who knows those who have been opinion polled , they may have already voted and mucking around with the polling ,by claiming that they will vote for this party , and already vote for another party
But then 15 minutes later he has another observation:
EDIT: It sounds like the anti-Dan minority have been very vocal, unlike the silent majority.
Citizen
Snap
Is David Davis for real …?
https://twitter.com/EwinHannan/status/1595659769125425152
@Rocket Rocket
I know the feeling!! 2019 was a gradual nightmare unfolding, although 2016 US election was the worst.
I suspect Saturday will play out like the Federal election in that the Libs will be out of it pretty early but if Labor get majority or minority will be up in the air for a while.
Will be interesting to see if a high % who voted ScoMo out turn on Dan too, but the polls suggest that won’t be the case.
I think Mr Green will call it right on the 9pm WC kickoff time!!
@ Trent
Good work by you too!! I pretty much gave up on those multi party seats and I reckon my Caulfield calculations are massively out of whack now.
Sandringham and Brighton will be the most fascinating seats for me, if the Libs can’t hold them their entire base will be gone.
Thanks William
From the Guardian blog:
‘ Luke Henriques-Gomes
@lukehgomes
Liberals candidate for Point Cook tells ABC Melbourne candidates panel that the vaccine was “rushed” and asked if she accepts the science she says it didn’t stop transmission.
4:17 PM · Nov 24, 2022’
The perfect Victorian election result which would make the corrupt lib/nats propaganda media units go absolute berserk is
Labor Majority and the Greens win more seats than the Lib/nats to be the opposition
@Oliver Sutton
Reckon she’s there to make Garra look sane by comparison? The Libs won’t win any western suburbs seats. But Garra might I guess, if he can get over the Libs into second.