Victorian election minus two days

Media reports suggest Labor will be pushed to the precipice of minority government, or perhaps over the edge, although a Morgan SMS poll suggests otherwise.

Relevant news coverage of the past few days:

• Today’s Herald Sun reports pollster Redbridge Group believes “Labor will be reduced to minority government with 43 seats out of 88”, though this is based on “extensive polling and hundreds of focus groups in key seats across the state over the past two years” rather than anything specific. A “best-case scenario” is nonetheless conceded in which Labor wins 48 seats. Labor is predicted to lose Bayswater, Bass, Nepean and Pakenham to the Liberals, with Ashwood, Box Hill and Ringwood “under serious threat” and Eltham, Monbulk, Cranbourne and Eureka “considered to be in play”. Richmond and Northcote are rated as Greens gains, possibly to be joined by Albert Park, Footscray and “even” Pascoe Vale, the latter being the view of “party insiders”. Melton, Point Cook and Werribee “could” be won by independents, Ian Birchall in Melton seemingly being the best chance. Labor is “not expected to retain” Hawthorn, which I take to imply uncertainty as to whether it will be lost to Liberal John Pesutto or independent Melissa Lowe.

• Similarly, The Australian reports strategists from both parties consider seven to eight losses an “optimistic Labor prediction”, although the contention there are “up to ten in the party’s doubtful column” still suggests a bare Labor majority. The Liberals are still hopeful of a “train wreck” scenario for Labor in which the undecided break their way, but concede it to be unlikely. It is “understood the Liberal Party’s poll track has the two-party preferred vote locked at 50 per cent” across 20 target seats, implying it is likely to win a good many of them.

• Roy Morgan has an SMS poll showing Labor leading 55-45, in from 57-43 in a similar poll a fortnight ago, from primary votes of Labor 38% (down two), Coalition 32.5% (up three-and-a-half), Greens 12.5% (up one), “teal independents” 4.5% (steady), and 12.5% scattered among the remainder. There were also forced response questions for Daniel Andrews’ personal approval, breaking 57.5-42.5 his way, and preferred premier, breaking 65-35 in favour of Andrews over Matthew Guy.

• An audience of 100 ostensibly undecided voters recruited by Q&A Market Research for Tuesday night’s leaders debate in Box Hill came down 38 for Daniel Andrews, 34 for Matthew Guy and 28 undecided.

• The Age had further results from the Resolve Strategic poll on Tuesday, including issue salience responses that closely tracked a similar recent question from RedBridge Group in having the cost of living well in front on 27%, followed by health and environment on 12% each. Respondents were also asked how they viewed twelve election policies announced during the campaign and found net positive responses for all of them, with little separating the Coalition’s promise of $2 public transport fares (65% for, 10% against) and Labor’s investment in renewable energy under the State Energy Commission (64% for, 14% against). The least popular policies were banning gas exploration (34% for, 24% against) and raising the age of criminal responsibility from twelve to fourteen (37% for, 28% against). I am advised that the voting intention results to one decimal place shown on Wikipedia are sourced from the company itself. For what such distinctions may be worth to you, the 53-47 headline was rounded from 52.7-47.3.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

224 comments on “Victorian election minus two days”

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  2. Sorry for being dim, but can somebody please explain to me what Kos Samaras means when he says:

    16m
    Note. Most will be animated voters who have already come off Labors base. So should already feature in polling

  4. Have those polls allowed for the fact that over 40% (according to Antony Green) have already cast votes?

    If not, then those votes are likely to reflect the poll results of a couple of weeks ago.

    Mind you, if late counting of postals and pre-polls favours Labor, the cookers will be screaming about “stolen elections”.

  5. From open thread.
    Vensays:
    Thursday, November 24, 2022 at 9:22 am
    ”
    A decade of policy inaction, misstep and failure is coming home to roost – and Australian taxpayers are being warned the cost of that will be borne by them, explains Shane Wright.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-economic-issues-the-federal-government-cannot-ignore-20221123-p5c0jv.html
    ”

    Then Why didn’t you raise your voice or speak truth to power when LNP was in power in the last decade.
    Do you remember only when ALP comes to power?

    No wonder Scott keeps mentioning ‘corrupt media ‘.
    Not that it makes any difference to Victorian election result, but Victorians if you are reading this thread or PB in general, I implore you to vote in large numbers against LNP and corrupt media.
    Remember, You will be defeating media if you vote against LNP.
    The main reason to vote against LNP is because they are bad and incompetent.
    As Kevin Rudd said, Murdoch Press is the cancer on Australian society.

  7. “Victoria says:
    Thursday, November 24, 2022 at 5:41 pm
    Citizen

    Snap”

    I had expert assistance from our 18 month old psephologist grandson. He expresses his opinions without fear or favour!

  8. Oliver Sutton 551pm

    Liberals candidate for Point Cook tells ABC Melbourne candidates panel that the vaccine was “rushed” and asked if she accepts the science she says it didn’t stop transmission.

    I have heard this before. Deep down they are really peeved that they themselves are not getting the benefit from the 95% of people who got vaccinated ! No ‘free ride’ for the ‘freedom’ fighters.

  10. Victoriasays:
    Thursday, November 24, 2022 at 5:27 pm
    Kisdarke
    Yeah the cookers are at all the prepoll booths being quite abusive and cray cray.
    _____________________
    Been around to all the prepoll booths have you ??

  11. Very very very nervous.

    None of the penecostal infiltration, IBAC referral, VEC allegations and lack of coatings details have seemingly affected the libs in polling.

  12. Fiona Patten MP
    @FionaPattenMLC
    ·
    17m
    Police called to west Brunswick pre-poll. Not sure who called them but the Freedom Party was who they were interested in #vicvotes

    cookers making dickheads of themselves

  15. The convenient thing about everyone having phones is you don’t need to go to all the prepoll booths, as there’s ample video evidence of the cookers harassing people.

    Luckily my local one’s pretty quiet. Maybe not one they’ve been told is a target seat.

  16. zoomster

    You would think so, then you look at Scullin. ALP primary -14.2%, LIB primary -0.6%. GRN +4.2, UAP +3.1, PHON 6.5, LDP 3.8, Socialists 2.7. AJP and Others -5.76 (didn’t run). That cooker vote literally couldn’t have come off of anyone else.
    Gorton, ALP primary -10.1%, primarily went to cookers. The LIB vote was again down 0.5%.
    Bruce ALP -6.57% and LIB -5.43%, cookers went from 7% to 18%.
    Holt ALP -9.68 and LIB -6.21, cookers went from 6% to 17%.
    Calwell ALP -9.57 LIB -0.63, cookers went from 9% to 18%.

  17. Our local primary school has cancelled the democracy sausage sizzle…. Can’t get volunteers as people have already voted, and many don’t feel safe if they’re hearing threats of protests from the freedom mob. Coppers might have a busy Saturday…

  19. Just reread this article. The Redbridge ‘polls’ were based off focus groups over the last 2 years? WTAF? Some of those focus groups would have been during lockdown- I call BS.

  21. “Yikes, good to see the right for a different opinion does not exist on this platform!!

    Would personally love to see ALP win with the same amount of seats but Dan to lose. And for the record, I voted informal as I couldn’t vote for the other Guy.

    As for the Dan devotees, it is possible to have a negative view of the man without being a ‘nutter’. Honestly, the hard left are almost as bad as the Trumpists in not being able to see a variety of opinions.”

    Sadly, Luke, these unpleasant attempts at humiliating other posters expressing what would be mundane views elsewhere, are never far away on this site. It’s ‘my way or the highway’ from the intolerant majority.

  23. There is currently no real polling evidence to suggest Lab will be out of government, it’s just about plausible they could fall to minority if the chips fall a certain way.

    The real ‘dark horse’ is the – I believe unusually high – numbers of undecideds at this election, plus some confusion as to where the preferences of the higher than usual minority parties’ votes will go.

    It’s quite feasible that both main parties could have a lower primary vote, but with a decisive swing one way or another on 2pp. NB the federal election this year where Lab were still below LNP on primary vote and lower than their 2019 primary vote – but still won on 2pp c. 52-48.

  24. A cooker is a person whose brain is cooked, and who subscribes to conspiracy theories such as QAnon, anti-vax, climate change is a hoax etc. It was pipped by “teal” for word of the year by one of the dictionaries.

  25. According to the bookies, there will be 9 seat changes this election. They are;

    LNP GAINS: Hastings, Hawthorn, Nepean
    ALP GAINS: Bayswater
    GRN GAINS: Northcote, Richmond
    IND GAINS: Melton, Kew, Caulfield

    That would make it;
    ALP: 52 (-5), LNP: 26(-), GRN: 5, IND: 5

  28. There’s plenty of examples of Cookers in my area. One of their main insignia is a big sign saying that AusNet 5G will allow the Chinese to take control over peoples’ minds via brainwaves or some nonsense like that. Something like the Trumpist Americans with their conspiracies about Jewish Space Lasers causing worse-than-average forest fires.

  34. Having done some shifts at pre-poll on the Brighton-Sandringham border, I am convinced that James Newbury is going down. The teal, Frederico, has got an excellent ground game, and a lot of people from Brighton are taking Labor HTV cards as well. If the teal gets second she wins 100%, and if Labor get second they should win anyway. Sandringham looks better for the Libs, since the Independent will probably come 4th and the feeling is Brad Rowswell has done a better job than Newbury, but it could still very well fall to Labor.

  35. There are a few anti fascist and left leaning anti conspiracy Aussies on Twitter and YouTube who started using the term cookers and cooked in relation to the nutter anti vaxx and related people over the last two years, it applies to those people who have really erratic systems of belief they picked up off the internet, whereas actual Nazis (for example) are still just called Nazis. Its a uniquely Australian term.

    https://cookerpedia.org/wiki/Cooker

  36. Conspiracy theories are one thing eg Qanon, Chinese brainwaves etc. but people conflate ‘cookers’ with perfectly rational people as well because they are of a minority opinion – which is a completely different thing.

    I expect LGBT rights activists and environmentally concerned were therefore regarded as cookers in the 1920s.

    Same as some intelligent people who’ve dared to look into the science of things below the headlines and come to some different conclusions on climate change to the mass general opinion, who despise conspiracy theories as much as other people, are now called ‘cookers’ in the 2020s.

    Or, like Daniel B on this site, dare to believe in the bible – which somehow doesn’t sit right with most other posters even though freedom of religion and belief is meant to be one of the mainstays of our society.

    In short, using the term ‘cooker’ is often applied aptly, but is also often used as a very lazy characterisation of people who have minority opinions I viscerally dislike and for which I can claim lots of support for so ‘I’ must be right and they must be ‘cookers’.

  37. Expat says:
    Thursday, November 24, 2022 at 6:53 pm
    Our local primary school has cancelled the democracy sausage sizzle…. Can’t get volunteers as people have already voted, and many don’t feel safe if they’re hearing threats of protests from the freedom mob. Coppers might have a busy Saturday…

    The apparent extent of these incidents of intimidation at polling places does suggest that they are organised to some extent and are not random actions by individuals.

    It should not be too difficult for the authorities to identify the likely organisers from their past behaviour during Covid. I am sure also that physical or verbal intimidation of people exercising their democratic right to vote would be against the law.

  38. GodlessHeathen @ #134 Thursday, November 24th, 2022 – 7:44 pm

    Having done some shifts at pre-poll on the Brighton-Sandringham border, I am convinced that James Newbury is going down. The teal, Frederico, has got an excellent ground game, and a lot of people from Brighton are taking Labor HTV cards as well. If the teal gets second she wins 100%, and if Labor get second they should win anyway. Sandringham looks better for the Libs, since the Independent will probably come 4th and the feeling is Brad Rowswell has done a better job than Newbury, but it could still very well fall to Labor.

    thanks for the update

  39. I blame the emergence of cookers in part of the failure of schools to teach critical thinking. This is a vital skill at any time, let alone when the world is flooded with misinformation that appears to many people to be credible and authoritative.

    The other key to understanding cookerdom is that people find a community among those with similarly kooky views, then become emotionally wedded to both that community and the views. Rational arguments will never counter such emotional attachment.

  40. Oh there are plenty of cookers around. Up here in the armpit of Victoria we have had the house down the road with “impeach Dan Andrews across the front”, the almost normal people in the local shop told me when the LDP come to power in the election Dan will be tried and hanged for crimes against humanity, and round the corner from me there is a house with the cooker flag out front and 10 foot fence around it with a sign that says Guns on property, we will defend.

    Oh and i forget, the neighbours here were so happy to go off to the cooker convoy in Canberra as a fun family trip. No surprise about them as when I moved here I got a 10 min diatribe on the evils of Labor and Juila Gillard – straight out talking points of Tony Abbott.

    I just hope my ALP corflutes on my fences give them indigestion

  41. ‘The Liberal candidate for the seat of Benambra, Bill Tilley, has been accused of using “threatening and intimidating language and behaviour” towards another candidate for the seat, a claim he flatly denies.’

    ‘…Mr Tilley, the Benambra incumbent, was alleged to have told Ms Hawkins to “shut your filthy mouth” during an argument on Saturday.’

    ‘…”I was subjected to threatening and intimidating language and behaviour from the incumbent,” she said.

    “My team has lodged a formal complaint to the VEC and we’ll let that process unfold.’

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-24/jacqui-hawkins-accuses-bill-tilley-intimidating-language/101694314?fbclid=IwAR2fOB2w4fW-rcoCqxxzz6z2AqJbR7woMXTlG3ks14wcKLcCtuyQnAUYLzw

  42. A cooker is a person who retreats into a world of fantasy and make believe because they don’t want to deal with life’s difficulties. They’re determined to disrupt everyone else’s life as a subconscious act of self-defense which is basically shows a psychological collapse.

  44. The cooker thing has been around a long time especially in the country, remember early 1990s with the league of rights idiots, people like Hanson and I dare say the Orange peril gave legitimacy for the cooker views and social media reinforces it.

  46. Oliver Sutton: I had the same reaction. I reckon there’s a lot of brooding anger and resentment. God help us if we start seeing political violence but it somehow doesn’t seem very implausible.


  47. BTSays says:
    Thursday, November 24, 2022 at 7:45 pm
    …
    Same as some intelligent people who’ve dared to look into the science of things below the headlines and come to some different conclusions on climate change.
    …

    And tell me BTsay’s what wondrous conclusion have you reached?

  48. GodlessHeathen says:
    Thursday, November 24, 2022 at 7:44 pm
    Having done some shifts at pre-poll on the Brighton-Sandringham border, I am convinced that James Newbury is going down. The teal, Frederico, has got an excellent ground game,………………
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    I’m of a different view and consider Newbury will unfortunately pull it off.
    Also I would not call Frederico a teal. She has had 3 attempts at Liberal preselection. Not a moderate but a shifty failed Lib candidate looking for a well rewarded job by any means .

  49. You can listen to Jordan Peterson videos on Utube, boy is he a women hating idiot. Really a bit of a sad case. I understand how he appeals to Liberal cookers.

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