Click here for full Victorian election results updated live.
Friday, December 8
The last in doubt seat was determined in Labor’s favour today, with the preference distribution in Bass showing Labor incumbent Jordan Crugnale the winner with 20,803 votes (50.24%) over 20,601 (49.76%) for Liberal candidate Alan Brown. Labor thus emerges with 56 lower house seats, up one from their total in 2018; the Liberals on 19, down two, and the Nationals on nine, up three, with one or the other presumably to win Narracan when the supplementary election is held; the Greens four, up one; and independents from three to zero.
In the upper house count, the ABC’s projected margin for Transport Matters incumbent Rod Barton over Aiv Puglielli of the Greens at the final count for North-Eastern Metropolitan has narrowed to 16.95% to 16.38%, at which point the Greens could be confident that below-the-line votes would win them the seat. Barton is also a hair’s breadth away from exclusion behind Sustainable Australia at an earlier point in the count.
Thursday, December 8
Labor chalked up another win today when the button was pressed on Pakenham, revealing that their candidate Emma Vulin prevailed over David Farrelly of the Liberals at the last by 19,587 (50.39%) to 19,280 (49.61%). That gets Labor to 55 seats, which most likely will get to 56 when the button is pressed tomorrow on Bass, barring the emergence of some as yet undetected anomaly that up-ends the 211 vote margin on the two-candidate preferred count.
Wednesday, December 7
The preference distribution for Pakenham, earlier promised for today, will now be finalised tomorrow according to the VEC. That remains the only seat in doubt now that Northcote is decided for Labor, although I note that the ABC still rates Bass, where Labor leads by 211, as in doubt. There too the VEC is promising a preference distribution tomorrow. The preference distribution in Preston established that independent Gaetano Greco did not in fact make the final count, at which Labor retained the seat ahead of the Greens by a margin of 2.1%.
Tuesday, December 6
A preference distribution has been run for Northcote, which I believe was conducted electronically, with Labor incumbent Kat Theophanous making it over the line at the final count with 21,413 votes (50.22%) to Greens candidate Campbell Gome’s 21,229 (49.78%). The VEC site says “a recheck is taking place for this district”, but the ABC reports the figures as final.
In the other yet-to-be-called seat, Pakenham, Antony Green relates that the re-check of first preferences has shown up anomalies that will put Labor ahead when corrected, with the published results remaining those of the initial count. This involved an increase in the number of votes designated informal, which cut 274 from the Liberal primary vote tally compared with 111 from Labor’s. The difference is sufficient to cancel out the Liberals’ 90 vote lead on the two-candidate preferred count, though not so handily that you would rule out further anomalies tipping the result back the other way. The matter will seemingly be clarified when a full preference distribution is conducted tomorrow. Should the result go Labor’s way, they will have repeated their feat from 2018 of winning 55 seats, despite a statewide two-party swing that looks to be in excess of 3%.
Monday, December 5
My previous update dropped the ball with respect to Northcote, where a 1523-994 break on absent votes brought the Greens right back into contention. Labor now leads by 189 with the outstanding vote likely to consist of around 1500 postals, of which the latest batch broke an even 123-123, and a handful of provisionals.
The Liberals have opened a 90 vote lead in Pakenham, after the latest early votes broke 450-356 and postals broke 80-67, outweighing a 208-189 break to Labor on absents. There are still about 1500 postals to be accounted for, and since these have broken 51-49 in favour of the Liberals so far, this seems assured to remain close.
Mornington continues to edge out of reach of independent candidate Kate Lardner, with absents (349-338), early votes (268-203) and postals (110-102) all breaking slightly the way of Liberal candidate Chris Crewther, whose lead is out from 491 votes to 575. My results system is now calling it for Crewther, leaving only Northcote and Pakenham in doubt.
In the upper house count, second Liberal candidate Joe McCracken’s position in Western Victoria has strengthened appreciably, leaving him a likely winner over Stuart Grimley of Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party. The Greens and Legalise Cannabis remain in a race for a third left-wing seat, with Labor and now Liberal on course for two seats each.
Sunday, December 4
There are probably three lower house seats that are still in real doubt, not counting Narracan which will presumably be won by the Liberals or Nationals. This gets Labor to 54 seats with a best case scenario of 56; the Coalition to 26 with a best case scenario of 29; the Greens to four; and one outside possibility for an independent.
The most remarkable of the close races is Pakenham which was tied as of Friday, before Liberal candidate David Farrelly opened up a three-vote lead after a batch of absents were added over the weekend. Farrelly held a 220 vote lead mid-week before postals broke 964-781 to Labor and early votes did so by 457-420.
Labor holds a 285 lead in Bass, out from 53 after favourable results on early vote (1768-1643), absents (539-438) and recent batches of postals (826-820). Postals, of which the first batch broke strongly to the Liberals but more recent arrivals have been neutral, should account for most of the remainder, although there may also be significant numbers of outstanding absents.
Liberal candidate Chris Crewther’s lead over independent Kate Lardner in Mornington is now at 491 votes, out from 353, after postals favoured him 751-717 and early votes did so 413-329. The former were less strong for Crewther than earlier postals, of which at least 3000 yet to come. Together with the fact that further absents are likely outstanding, this means Crewther can’t be considered home and hosed quite yet, though he is clearly a short-priced favourite
Elsewhere, Paul Mercurio is probably home for Labor in Hastings, his lead out from 659 to 803 after the lastest postals broke 151-116 his way and absents broke 290-221. Labor’s lead over the Greens in Northcote is down from 874 to 781 after a batch of early votes favoured the Greens 1645-1454, outweighing an 832-734 break to Labor on the latest postals.
Now, finally, to the upper house, where the ABC is currently projecting a final result of Labor 15, Coalition 13, Legalise Cannabis three, Greens two and (deep breath) Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, Liberal Democrats, Animal Justice, Shooters Fishers and Farmers, Transport Matters, the Democratic Labour Party and One Nation on one each. However, the ABC projections assume all votes are above-the-line and duly follow the group voting tickets, which likely means an over-estimation of the number of micro-party winners. To deal with the eight regions in turn, all links below being to the ABC projections:
North-Eastern Metropolitan. Labor and the Liberals will clearly win two apiece, but the last seat could go either to the Greens or the beneficiary or the micro-party preference network, which on current numbers is projected to be Transport Matters but they come close to dropping out at a number of points in the count. Other contenders could be the Liberal Democrats and the DLP, although I would imagine below-the-line leakage would be such that their collective chances are weaker than the ABC projection indicates.
Eastern Victoria. The Liberals and Nationals have a clear two quotas and Labor one, and Labor’s surplus is well clear of what the Greens can muster, ensuring the latter drops out and elects Labor’s second candidate with a substantial surplus of left-wing votes. These then ensure that the final seat goes to Shooters Fishers and Farmers rather than One Nation.
Northern Metropolitan. Two Labor, one Liberal and one Greens candidate each stand to be elected with little surplus to spare. This makes the final seat a question of whether a right-wing preference bloc elects Adem Somyurek of the DLP, or left-wing bloc (Victorian Socialists, Legalise Cannabis and Animal Justice) elects Fiona Patten of Reason, with the former seeming increasingly more likely as the count progresses.
Northern Victoria. The Coalition has two quotas and Labor has one with a big surplus. Beyond that, it seems clear that One Nation will emerge the beneficiaries of a right-wing preference snowball that will push them from 3.75% all the way to a quota, and that Animal Justice will win a seat out of the Druery preference network they ultimately reneged on, soaking up preferences from Sack Dan Andrews, Health Australia, Derryn Hinch’s Justice, the Liberal Democrats, as well as the left-wing surplus from Victorian Socialists, Reason, Legalise Cannabis and ultimately the Greens.
South-Eastern Metropolitan. Labor has two seats with about 0.4 quotas to spare and the Liberals one plus about 0.6. Labor’s surplus plus the Greens’ 0.4 quotas will elect Legalise Cannabis, leaving the final seat a tight race between the second Liberal and the Liberal Democrats.
Southern Metropolitan. This seems straightforward: the Liberals win a clear two seats without much to spare, Labor falls just short of a second quota on first preferences and the Greens just short of a first, with both of the latter absorbing enough preferences to push them over their respective lines.
Western Metropolitan. Labor will win two seats with about a quarter of a quota to spare and the Liberals one with about a half. The latter two seats then develop as parallel races between the Greens, Legalise Cannabis and Victorian Socialists on the left, respectively at 8.10%, 7.45% and 7.13% at the relevant point of the count, and the second Liberal and the DLP on the right, who are respectively projected to end the count on 17.48% and 15.85%.
Western Victoria. Labor has two seats and about a quarter of a quota to spare, and the Coalition one and a bit more than half. That leaves enough left-wing votes for a third seat that could go to Legalise Cannabis or the Greens, with the former projected to emerge 11.72% to 9.57% clear after one-way traffic on preferences from Reason, Animal Justice and Labor. Most of the ensuing surplus transfer then goes to Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, who are then projected to win the final seat over the second Liberal by 17.45% to 15.88%, although this could seemingly go either way.
One of the more effervescent contributors made many claims that the Victorian election results would be “fascinating”.
And hasn’t that been so in both houses.
Nor is it finished.
Two comments that provided a decent sized smirk:
From Alpha Zero
“LCAs transport policy is to keep the roads clear so that Dominos can deliver their Pizzas ”
From Jeremy
” She’ll be the same, smarmy, leftoid with the same ‘prostitution is great’ mantra.”
Goll, I assume by smirk you mean praise. An unusual definition to be sure.
I won’t believe the results in North Metro until they are officially confirmed. I fully expect Patton to somehow get back. How long after an election does the button get pushed to resolve the matter?
Meanwhile, here’s my thought provoking letter in today’s Australian to entertain the masses.
“Why has no one expressed any concern about Bruce Lehrmann’s mental health? Despite a lack of credible evidence from the outset, he has endured a rape trial and a relentless public campaign against him, yet he has carried himself with dignity. Not surprisingly, he is now unemployable and has contemplated suicide. Worst of all, with the charges dropped, he has no way to recover his reputation. What happened to the fundamental legal principle that those accused are innocent until proven guilty?”
The VEC and ABC have the Labor lead much narrower in Northcote at 192. Is there some doubt about that figure, William?
One of the few downsides in what (for me) is an otherwise great election result is the prospect of Somyurek being re-elected to the LC at the expense of Fiona Patten. Also it seems that the earlier reports of Druery’s comprehensive failure need to be revised. At least Bernie Finn didn’t make it. If Somyurek’s return to the LC isn’t enough to persuade the ALP of the need to ditch GVT I don’t know what will be.
“Now, finally, to the upper house, where the ABC is currently projecting a final result of Labor 15, Coalition 13, Legalise Cannabis three, Greens two and (deep breath) Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, Liberal Democrats, Animal Justice, Shooters Fishers and Farmers, Transport Matters, the Democratic Labour Party and One Nation on one each.”
Progressives: 15+3+2+1= 21
Conservatives: 13+1+1+1+1= 17
Show-me-the-money-and-I-will-decide: 1+1 = 2
So, it looks like there may be a majority Progressive in the upper house, which will presumably facilitate the passage of Progressive legislation.
PB’s scrape is running behind VEC and ABC at this point. It appears that Northcote is about done, since they’ve added provisionals to their voting tallies. Cannot be much left there. It appears that Greek preferences have (just barely) outweighed Liberal preferences in kingmaking the winner there.
The Liberal in Pakenham has leapt out to a nearly 100-vote lead off a seemingly VERY favorable batch of absent votes. But that race is less well along than Northcote, as it’s showing only at about 87% of enrollment and no provisionals are in the results yet. Kevin Bonham cautions that one batch of absents is often wildly different in composition from the next based on where they come from. Still anyone’s guess who’ll win.
Bass District is Likely Labor at this point. It’s at 88.40% of enrollment, and though no provisionals have been counted yet, those will almost certainly favor Labor.
There’s also Preston, which seems again likely to go to Labor based on ABC’s reported hearsay but for which there is an almost complete absence of non-hearsay information to go on. It’s not at all clear even who will make the final two candidates.
Narracan is Liberal territory, the Nationals will only manage a token showing. Drouin and Warragul have both grown significantly since the last time there was a three cornered contest in 2006 and the new population is not natural National voters.
max says:
Monday, December 5, 2022 at 6:56 am
One of the few downsides in what (for me) is an otherwise great election result is the prospect of Somyurek being re-elected to the LC at the expense of Fiona Patten. Also it seems that the earlier reports of Druery’s comprehensive failure need to be revised. At least Bernie Finn didn’t make it. If Somyurek’s return to the LC isn’t enough to persuade the ALP of the need to ditch GVT I don’t know what will be.
—————————
The cynical argument is that GVT keeps the Greens at bay, and thus neither the LNP or the ALP want to abolish it.
Personally, and I speak from a position of bias, I think this stance is short-sighted on behalf of the ALP. The hard heads there still believe they can fight off the Green insurgency. I would suggest they observe there are more greens in the lower house (directly elected) than there are in the upper house (GVT).
Keeping right wing loonies in there at the expense of progressive votes is self defeating in the long term.
B.S. Fairman @ #6 Monday, December 5th, 2022 – 9:32 am
It’s often been said that newer arrivals in Warragul and Drouin are the grand children of Narre Warren folk whose adult children moved to Pakenham back in the 70s and eighties but alas, their children can no longer afford to live in Pakenham, so they buy a couple of newish vehicles and commute daily till the marriage breaks down and they start all over again in two new households.The rest are mainly from South Asia.
Warragul & Drouin once small country service towns are now choking on well over stretched roads.
The ‘old money’ still tries to run the place with a ‘we know what’s best for you’ mentality.
The new Lib candidate is a well known head of a largish building company with vast local connections to the big end of Warragul.
Strangely (surprisingly),the Labor candidate was not found till about 2 weeks before the coming election so probably would not have been well known,probably less so than the late National candidate, yet the ALP at last came out and matched the Libs with a promise to build a new Hospital between Drouin and Warragul,something that the Libs had been campaigning for for many years.
There is also a very large Christian Pentecostal and other alternative religious groups in and around Warragul who may have played some part in the attempt to overthrow the previous liberal seat warmer and timber industry proponent,who once said ‘It is a very sad day when a company the size of Bunnings is influenced by a handful of inner-city Greens and prepared to undermine Gippsland jobs’in regard to Bunnings decision to discontinue selling timber sourced from VicForests .
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/state-liberal-mp-fends-off-preselection-challenge-by-controversial-prolifer-20170218-gufyow.html.
Does Labor have a chance in Narracan? Probably not, but which kind of shows that in actual fact Dan&Co. do take their social justice responsibility’s seriously and will as before govern for all Victorians.But things take time.
@MABWM
Yes, there’s a recognisable type of too-clever-by-half, usually Right faction, Labor apparatchik, who thinks that GTV is good for keeping The Greens at bay. It’s short-sighted, to say the least. (If it wasn’t for Animal Justice so spectacularly ratting on that ballot louse Glenn Druery, then it really would’ve bitten them in the arse this time.) In any case, I think GTV’s all but gone now:
1) Animal Justice can’t play the same trick twice.
2) Somyurek wouldn’t be anywhere without it.
3) The numbers look like they’ll fall in such a way that Labor can’t avoid dealing with The Greens in the upper house (ie they’ll have no plausible alternative path around them).
I’ve given up trying to analyse the upper house results. Tiny changes in the early counts of just a couple of hundred votes here or there are making them bounce around so much, it’s making prognostications almost meaningless.
One area where I will go out on a limb is to say that the preference-harvesters won’t do as well as the calculators are currently showing, because a few of them are scraping over the line by such small margins, BTL votes are bound to shoot them down.
I will also say that Labor will (probably) need six votes to get legislation through, compared to three in the old chamber. If the preference harvesters do better than I expect, and Labor ends up having to negotiate with six individual members from six individual micro parties, it will serve them right.
There are some interesting insights in this article on The Age that, while it relates to research about the federal election, are useful in explaining the lack of teal success in the Victorian election:
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/tactical-teal-voters-dislodged-liberals-with-no-trust-for-morrison-20221202-p5c342.html
That said, most of it is not particularly new and just confirms what our assumptions were. The main point being that the teal voters was mostly comprised of a tactical vote by Labor and Greens supporters.
“The study found the majority of teal independent voters were tactical voters intent on unseating incumbent Liberal MPs…. The study found a majority of teal supporters saw their traditional party as “non-viable” in their local seat, so decided to switch their vote to an independent expected to have a greater chance of victory.”
In the state election, this perfectly explains why teals did so poorly in Brighton & Caulfield (close ALP v LIB margins) but did relatively well in Kew & Mornington (where ALP were not seen as competitive), and why they probably would have done a lot better in Malvern than they did in Brighton, Caulfield or Sandringham.
More interesting to me was this insight:
“The Liberal Party was viewed as more right-wing by teal voters than Labor voters.”
This is interesting because it may explain what we saw in Brighton where the VEC conducted an indicative LIB v IND count then corrected it to a LIB v ALP count, and contrary to the federal results where the IND 2CP was much better than the ALP 2PP, in Brighton the ALP candidate actually performed better than the IND in the 2CP count.
Based on the federal results, and the fact that IND supporters are more likely to be “small l” Liberals, it was assumed that preferences would flow stronger from ALP to IND than from IND to ALP.
However, if those who swing to IND/Teal actually see the Liberals as more “right-wing” than voters who stuck with the ALP do, then the Brighton result makes a bit more sense.
Federally, the Liberal primary votes plummeted by a good 5-10% in most of the teal seats, which probably explains why despite teal voters seeing the Libs are “more right-wing”, the 2PP still favoured the Liberals compared to the 2CP. But in the state seats – including Hawthorn – the Liberal primary vote didn’t really tank at all. In fact it increased in Brighton. So you could assume almost all the IND vote came from left-leaning voters.
It will be very interesting to compare Hawthorn’s LIB v ALP 2PP with their LIB v IND 2CP as well to see whether it’s more like the federal 2CP v 2PP difference or more like Brighton.
https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/new-cabinet-keep-doing-what-matters
New Victorian cabinet, full list
@EightES – chances are basically zero that Labor will need to deal with 6 parties.
Greens have 2, on ABC numbers. There’s a third that they are probably pretty confident on, needing a tiny amount of BTL leakage to disrupt the Drury snowball. There’s also a 4th that WB thinks they have a shot in.
Legalise Cannabis should end up with 3.
Most likely outcome is that Labor just need Greens + LC. Outside chance they also need Reason or AJP. No chance they need 6 parties.
Grime – I hadn’t followed the race there so closely, although I do know about Warragul and Drouin’s rapids growth. It is fairly interesting seeing the two towns slowly converge. It almost an exburb of Southeast Melbourne in some respects as there are plenty of people living in Warragul/Drouin area and working in the Southeast of Melbourne.
On the political front, Labor was fairly lazy with not finding candidates for unwinnable seats until very late. It could be argued that Labor running one such low profile placeholder candidate in Mildura cost Cupper her seat. The ALP was similarly fairly bad in regional Victoria at the federal election and might have hurt the Independents chances in Nicholls too. And finally it would hurt the upper house vote as well – as voters who don’t vote for the lower house candidate might not want to vote for the upper house candidates either. So it is a very dumb move by the ALP to neglect their candidate selection in these areas.
ABC just added 25 more greens votes and 20 more Labor ones in Northcote. Gap down to 187.
Yeah, alright. I was using a bit of poetic licence.
Leroy – Clearly the government has no fears that Preston is going to fall as they have named Nathan Lambert as a parliamentary secretary.
What would a voter in the seat of Narracan do?
You already know the winner of the election. Do you try to get your local member to be from the party who is in Government?
The parallel that I can think of is the 1999 Frankston East by-election which delivered a 7.7% swing compared with election day Carrum going to Labor on a 1% swing.
B.S. Fairman says:
Monday, December 5, 2022 at 12:35 pm
Leroy – Clearly the government has no fears that Preston is going to fall as they have named Nathan Lambert as a parliamentary secretary.
————–
And Theophanous in Northcote,
Big win for Mary-Anne Thomas – or was she already leader of the house?
B.S. Fairman @ #14 Monday, December 5th, 2022 – 12:33 pm
Agreed.
But will Labor throw what’s left in the bank at having a red hot go come the deferred election?
It would be an excellent seat for Labor to pick up for the future.
Grime – If I was in charge I would just skip it. There is nothing to be gained. It will be a loss and it will reported as if the shine is off Andrews if there is any swing against him. Because nominations will reopen, expect lots of other groups to now give it a go too. The non-conservative vote will splatter as the Greens are not exactly the second choose of many Labor voters in the seat.
I’d also sit out the Narracan deferred election- or see if a suitable community independent could be found and give some soft support to them if so. Probably too short notice to come up with a strong independent candidate though.
https://twitter.com/electionsvic/status/1599600214830383105
VEC @electionsvic
Replying to @kevinbonham
Hi Kevin, apologies, our spokesperson on ABC this morning stated that Campbell Gome was ahead by 192 votes in Northcote – however, this was an error and the margin is currently 192 in favour of Kat Theophanous, per https://vec.vic.gov.au/results/2022-state-election-results/results-by-district/northcote-district-results
2:03 PM · Dec 5, 2022
Apropos of nothing, but I was tickled to see an ad for the notorious Lobster Cave restaurant on SBS the other night. Not sure if they made a decision not to run it during the election campaign.
They hardly need to advertise. I’m not sure if I even knew of their existence until 2018 though it’s close-ish to my neck of the words. Courtesy of Matthew Guy they’re now almost a household name. It might just be Matthew Guy’s one lingering contribution to Victorian folklore.
Re Narracan, I think the result in next-door Morwell showed that Gippsland (excluding Bass) is now lost to Labor for the foreseeable future.
(Narracan’s the *only* Liberal regional seat lost in the 1999 disaster that they’ve managed to durably recover – and improve – their position in.)
In Northcote, VEC website says they’re processing ballot challenges as well as counting any remaining outstanding votes today. There are also still 17 ballots listed as “mis-sorts” which… actually, I have no idea what that means, but I assume they will be counted at some point. Thus, we can expect some continual slight bouncing around of the totals.
In Bass, 129 ballots just dropped per the ABC that broke 67-62 (51.9-48.1) to Crugnale (Labor), expanding her lead by 5 votes. They are not yet showing on VEC, but those may be the tallied provisionals, or more absents.
Please, Will, or another commenter with a better memory than mine – what are the average percentages by which the various parties or groups (counting the Druery mob as one group) go up or down in the LC counts once the BTL votes are added to the (GVT-distorted) ATL votes?
@AlphaZero
That was extremely different in 1999 as it actually decided who would win. This one will be seen as rather redundant in comparison.
Does this mean we’re finally going to have legal cannabis in Victoria?
The sky hasn’t fallen in the ACT.
RE: Naracan By-Election
As a non-Victorian, did the electors of Naracan cast a ballot for the Legislative Council or was that deferred until the subsequent Legislative Assembly poll, too?
A mis-sort is a ballot that has been assigned to the wrong candidate. Sometimes it is individual ballots, sometimes it is a stack of ten or fifth. Happens more during the preference counts of minor parties as there is sometimes only a handful per booth and so they get added to the wrong candidate.
It is simple solved by correcting for that ballot.
Macca RB – voters in Narracan still voted for the Upper House. If you voted early for both houses before that candidate died, the ones for the Upper House still counted but Lower House votes have since been binned. People who turned up on election day were only handed Upper House ballots to fill out.
Thanks Leroy.
That was my belief, but every state has different electoral rules, and I wanted a local to inform me.
I guess I’m still puzzled as to why VEC would identify a ballot as a “mis-sort” but then leave it as such rather than just adding it to the tally of ballots for whatever candidate it actually favors. Only thing I can think is that there’s some legal process involved prior to counting.
The usual suspects at 9 Entertainment opinion that Blandthorn has been “stripped” of her portfolio due to a conflict of interest consequent on the employment of her brother.
From reading the responsibilities Blandthorn now has I would opinion that she has been PROMOTED.
The media is further dis-credited – if they had any further to fall.
Then again, Liberals know all about stripping women, don’t they?
In Ministerial Offices no less.
Unless the lady stripped herself.
This was the first election state or federal for a few that I numbered every single box below the line in the upper house. The last 20 or so it became pretty hard but I tried to use the Kevin Bonham criteria of “If the last pairing was these two who would you pick?” and though I took my own rough guide in with me I cannot now remember my final order. But surely, no matter who the ‘last’ contest is between, my vote will count.
Many people voting below the line likely only number 1-5 or 1-10 : this obviously helps those parties or groups they vote for but it surely reduces the overall ‘power’ of their vote. I have been trying to get my head around the effect of such ‘exhausted’ ballots and I think someone here last week said that you effectively turn your vote into an ‘average’ vote of all the parties’ totals once it exhausts.
The more votes that exhaust at each iteration of the count, the more the required quota must come down – I realise it’s all relative but I can’t help feeling that such exhausted votes end up helping the preference ‘spirals’ of Druery and co.
I found it extremely difficult to order the bottom half of the groups/candidates but I thought that this time it really was worth it.
On Somyurek I was amused to read on his ‘new’ party’s website that one of the (many) reasons to vote out Dan Andrews and Labor was the appalling branch-stacking controversies. And in the next link – here is our fantastic candidate Adem Somyurek. Be careful what you wish for.
maxsays:
Monday, December 5, 2022 at 2:08 pm
Apropos of nothing, but I was tickled to see an ad for the notorious Lobster Cave restaurant on SBS the other night. Not sure if they made a decision not to run it during the election campaign.
They hardly need to advertise. I’m not sure if I even knew of their existence until 2018 though it’s close-ish to my neck of the words. Courtesy of Matthew Guy they’re now almost a household name. It might just be Matthew Guy’s one lingering contribution to Victorian folklore.
_____________________
You are not the sporting type are you Max.
They have only been sponsoring the daily ‘Sports Today’ radio program on 3AW for the best part of 20 years.
Here we go again – No, Blandthorn was forced out of the planning role (which she wanted) because she was having to excuse herself from up to 50% of decisions in her portfolio due to that conflict of interest. It was known in Planning circles before her appointment was made that there would be an issue. At least some people within the government knew, certainly ex-planning minister Wynne was aware, but the message was not communicated well enough to Andrews not to give her the job she wanted.
Northcote is getting some media attention after the vote tightened with the Greens adjusting there position of conceding and not ruling out a recount.
However, the ABC has Northcote from Labor ‘ahead’ to ‘likely’ so there must not be too many votes left to count.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/down-to-the-wire-greens-wind-back-concession-as-northcote-race-tightens-20221205-p5c3vb.html
Trent says: “ More interesting to me was this insight:
“The Liberal Party was viewed as more right-wing by teal voters than Labor voters.”
This is interesting because it may explain what we saw in Brighton where the VEC conducted an indicative LIB v IND count then corrected it to a LIB v ALP count, and contrary to the federal results where the IND 2CP was much better than the ALP 2PP, in Brighton the ALP candidate actually performed better than the IND in the 2CP count.”
Monday, December 5, 2022 at 12:12 pm
According to that theory Trent, do you expect the Hawthorn notional 2PP between LIB and ALP to be narrower than the current LIB vs IND 2CP (currently 51.5% to LIB)?
@B.S. Fairman
How do you know Blandthorn “wanted” Planning? Even she’d have to have known it couldn’t work given her brother’s lobbying. (And nobody in Planning was expecting her appointment — it came as quite a surprise.) Putting her there seemed a pretty neat way of kicking contentious planning decisions falling due in the last few months of the term into the long grass.
I think in Brighton, the fact is that the teal candidate was not well known by the electorate and among those who did know her, it would also probably be known that she was a Liberal until she lost preselection (thus giving little reason for ALP/GRN voters to preference). Quite a lot of voters will just number the parties/candidates they know higher than those which they have little idea of. Having a high primary vote also tends to correlate with how much the candidate receives in preference flows.
Melissa Lowe in Hawthorn seemed to have a much more visible campaign and a better appeal to the teal constituency (mostly Labor/Green with some Liberal) which resulted in a higher primary vote. So I expect her to have the better 2CP against the Liberal compared to the Labor candidate.
Re Narracan
I would not write off labors
Chances. Remember the retiring liberal mp won the
Seat by defeating the sitting. Alp member
He built a personal vote
This combined with. boundary swaps with
Next door Morwell lead him to be untroubled in holding the seat
Now his personal. Vote. Is
Gone.this will.harm the liberals. The national party.are in.trouble over the poor vetting of their candidate and cannot.leap
Frog the liberals and. Win
Here. The corresponding federal seat of Monash shares common territory and Mr Broadbent who is
A good and honourable. Man one of the few in the coalition.only won by 2.7%
This is a reflection of the demographic changes happening..lastly there is a good chance labour is in govt for another 8 years. Would the voters in this seat prefer a voice in government
I agree with stopping the ridic Labor-Greens wars. Can I just point out that if we had MMP, or any form of multi-member districting (eg our very own Hare-Clark system) both Kat Theophanous and Campbell Gome would be MPs .
Which, frankly, is what people wanted: 82.5% of Northcote voted Left.
The amusing part of this: LNP preferences arent worth much when no one actually votes LNP. A mighty 12%!
The Labor Greens war will stop when the Greens stop trying to win safe ALP seats. But how could that occur in practice? Some kind of carve up and stability pact like the ALPs factional one in Victoria? But even then a lot of the Greens base despise Labor (and vice versa) and the agreement might not stick at the Greens end.
Agree lefty_e, it would be great to stop the wars and also start using some form of proportional representation in the lower house. At least in Northcote, it’s likely around 82.5% of voters will probably be satisfied with most of the positions their local MP takes regardless of whether their MP is ALP or GRN, since they are both progressive people who are likely to take similar, progressive positions on key issues. This is in comparison to a marginal ALP vs LIB seat like Pakenham where there will likely be many issues where around half the electorate would probably disagree with the way their MP votes on contentious, party-line issues, yet this MP’s vote of approval or disapproval is worth as much as another MP’s vote who might represent an electorate that is much more lop-sided in their views, such as Northcote.
It’s staggering to see that 7.4% of votes cast in Pakenham were informal. More than 3,000. Maybe something to do with 11 candidates on the ballot paper?
The ABC notes that there will be a full preference distribution on Wednesday, to determine the outcome.
“The Labor Greens war will stop when the Greens stop trying to win safe ALP seats.”
Well, again, this is a product of the single-member district system we have in the lower house.
We don’t have to have a single-member district system: Tasmania and ACT don’t.
@Please stop.. re: Hawthorn & Brighton,
I agree with Adda that part of the reason I think that happened in Brighton was that she wasn’t a well known IND and also was an ex-Liberal so to a lot of Labor/Greens voters may not have been seen as any better than the Lib.
But I think the main reason is just the maths.
Federally, if you have a 35% IND vote versus a 8% ALP vote, that’s a guaranteed 35% towards the IND 2CP with only an 8% ALP vote for preferences to potentially end up with the LIB, whereas in the 2PP count you only have that 8% starting point for Labor with a lot more preferences from the IND to potentially leak to LIB.
In Brighton it was the opposite. Labor (24%) plus the vast majority of Greens preferences (14%) is a bigger base for the ALP’s 2CP to build on while there’s only 9% of Felicity’s vote to distribute and potentially end up with Newbury, compared with the IND 2CP only building off a 9% primary vote with a 24% Labor vote to potentially leak to LIB.
Basically, whoever has the significantly higher primary vote will probably do better in a 2CP count vs LIB because that primary vote is guaranteed, and leaves a smaller pool of preferences to leak away.
In Hawthorn I think it’ll be somewhere in between the federal and Brighton outcomes because the ALP and IND primary votes are almost identical, plus unlike federally, Pesutto didn’t really suffer a primary vote swing.
So whereas federally, the INDs tended to do about 6% better than Labor in a 2CP count vs LIB, and in Brighton it looks like Labor would have done about 2% better than IND, I think in Hawthorn the 2CP and 2PP will pretty close, with Lowe’s 2CP maybe only being 1-2% better than the ALP 2PP.