Click here for full Victorian election results updated live.
Friday, December 8
The last in doubt seat was determined in Labor’s favour today, with the preference distribution in Bass showing Labor incumbent Jordan Crugnale the winner with 20,803 votes (50.24%) over 20,601 (49.76%) for Liberal candidate Alan Brown. Labor thus emerges with 56 lower house seats, up one from their total in 2018; the Liberals on 19, down two, and the Nationals on nine, up three, with one or the other presumably to win Narracan when the supplementary election is held; the Greens four, up one; and independents from three to zero.
In the upper house count, the ABC’s projected margin for Transport Matters incumbent Rod Barton over Aiv Puglielli of the Greens at the final count for North-Eastern Metropolitan has narrowed to 16.95% to 16.38%, at which point the Greens could be confident that below-the-line votes would win them the seat. Barton is also a hair’s breadth away from exclusion behind Sustainable Australia at an earlier point in the count.
Thursday, December 8
Labor chalked up another win today when the button was pressed on Pakenham, revealing that their candidate Emma Vulin prevailed over David Farrelly of the Liberals at the last by 19,587 (50.39%) to 19,280 (49.61%). That gets Labor to 55 seats, which most likely will get to 56 when the button is pressed tomorrow on Bass, barring the emergence of some as yet undetected anomaly that up-ends the 211 vote margin on the two-candidate preferred count.
Wednesday, December 7
The preference distribution for Pakenham, earlier promised for today, will now be finalised tomorrow according to the VEC. That remains the only seat in doubt now that Northcote is decided for Labor, although I note that the ABC still rates Bass, where Labor leads by 211, as in doubt. There too the VEC is promising a preference distribution tomorrow. The preference distribution in Preston established that independent Gaetano Greco did not in fact make the final count, at which Labor retained the seat ahead of the Greens by a margin of 2.1%.
Tuesday, December 6
A preference distribution has been run for Northcote, which I believe was conducted electronically, with Labor incumbent Kat Theophanous making it over the line at the final count with 21,413 votes (50.22%) to Greens candidate Campbell Gome’s 21,229 (49.78%). The VEC site says “a recheck is taking place for this district”, but the ABC reports the figures as final.
In the other yet-to-be-called seat, Pakenham, Antony Green relates that the re-check of first preferences has shown up anomalies that will put Labor ahead when corrected, with the published results remaining those of the initial count. This involved an increase in the number of votes designated informal, which cut 274 from the Liberal primary vote tally compared with 111 from Labor’s. The difference is sufficient to cancel out the Liberals’ 90 vote lead on the two-candidate preferred count, though not so handily that you would rule out further anomalies tipping the result back the other way. The matter will seemingly be clarified when a full preference distribution is conducted tomorrow. Should the result go Labor’s way, they will have repeated their feat from 2018 of winning 55 seats, despite a statewide two-party swing that looks to be in excess of 3%.
Monday, December 5
My previous update dropped the ball with respect to Northcote, where a 1523-994 break on absent votes brought the Greens right back into contention. Labor now leads by 189 with the outstanding vote likely to consist of around 1500 postals, of which the latest batch broke an even 123-123, and a handful of provisionals.
The Liberals have opened a 90 vote lead in Pakenham, after the latest early votes broke 450-356 and postals broke 80-67, outweighing a 208-189 break to Labor on absents. There are still about 1500 postals to be accounted for, and since these have broken 51-49 in favour of the Liberals so far, this seems assured to remain close.
Mornington continues to edge out of reach of independent candidate Kate Lardner, with absents (349-338), early votes (268-203) and postals (110-102) all breaking slightly the way of Liberal candidate Chris Crewther, whose lead is out from 491 votes to 575. My results system is now calling it for Crewther, leaving only Northcote and Pakenham in doubt.
In the upper house count, second Liberal candidate Joe McCracken’s position in Western Victoria has strengthened appreciably, leaving him a likely winner over Stuart Grimley of Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party. The Greens and Legalise Cannabis remain in a race for a third left-wing seat, with Labor and now Liberal on course for two seats each.
Sunday, December 4
There are probably three lower house seats that are still in real doubt, not counting Narracan which will presumably be won by the Liberals or Nationals. This gets Labor to 54 seats with a best case scenario of 56; the Coalition to 26 with a best case scenario of 29; the Greens to four; and one outside possibility for an independent.
The most remarkable of the close races is Pakenham which was tied as of Friday, before Liberal candidate David Farrelly opened up a three-vote lead after a batch of absents were added over the weekend. Farrelly held a 220 vote lead mid-week before postals broke 964-781 to Labor and early votes did so by 457-420.
Labor holds a 285 lead in Bass, out from 53 after favourable results on early vote (1768-1643), absents (539-438) and recent batches of postals (826-820). Postals, of which the first batch broke strongly to the Liberals but more recent arrivals have been neutral, should account for most of the remainder, although there may also be significant numbers of outstanding absents.
Liberal candidate Chris Crewther’s lead over independent Kate Lardner in Mornington is now at 491 votes, out from 353, after postals favoured him 751-717 and early votes did so 413-329. The former were less strong for Crewther than earlier postals, of which at least 3000 yet to come. Together with the fact that further absents are likely outstanding, this means Crewther can’t be considered home and hosed quite yet, though he is clearly a short-priced favourite
Elsewhere, Paul Mercurio is probably home for Labor in Hastings, his lead out from 659 to 803 after the lastest postals broke 151-116 his way and absents broke 290-221. Labor’s lead over the Greens in Northcote is down from 874 to 781 after a batch of early votes favoured the Greens 1645-1454, outweighing an 832-734 break to Labor on the latest postals.
Now, finally, to the upper house, where the ABC is currently projecting a final result of Labor 15, Coalition 13, Legalise Cannabis three, Greens two and (deep breath) Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, Liberal Democrats, Animal Justice, Shooters Fishers and Farmers, Transport Matters, the Democratic Labour Party and One Nation on one each. However, the ABC projections assume all votes are above-the-line and duly follow the group voting tickets, which likely means an over-estimation of the number of micro-party winners. To deal with the eight regions in turn, all links below being to the ABC projections:
North-Eastern Metropolitan. Labor and the Liberals will clearly win two apiece, but the last seat could go either to the Greens or the beneficiary or the micro-party preference network, which on current numbers is projected to be Transport Matters but they come close to dropping out at a number of points in the count. Other contenders could be the Liberal Democrats and the DLP, although I would imagine below-the-line leakage would be such that their collective chances are weaker than the ABC projection indicates.
Eastern Victoria. The Liberals and Nationals have a clear two quotas and Labor one, and Labor’s surplus is well clear of what the Greens can muster, ensuring the latter drops out and elects Labor’s second candidate with a substantial surplus of left-wing votes. These then ensure that the final seat goes to Shooters Fishers and Farmers rather than One Nation.
Northern Metropolitan. Two Labor, one Liberal and one Greens candidate each stand to be elected with little surplus to spare. This makes the final seat a question of whether a right-wing preference bloc elects Adem Somyurek of the DLP, or left-wing bloc (Victorian Socialists, Legalise Cannabis and Animal Justice) elects Fiona Patten of Reason, with the former seeming increasingly more likely as the count progresses.
Northern Victoria. The Coalition has two quotas and Labor has one with a big surplus. Beyond that, it seems clear that One Nation will emerge the beneficiaries of a right-wing preference snowball that will push them from 3.75% all the way to a quota, and that Animal Justice will win a seat out of the Druery preference network they ultimately reneged on, soaking up preferences from Sack Dan Andrews, Health Australia, Derryn Hinch’s Justice, the Liberal Democrats, as well as the left-wing surplus from Victorian Socialists, Reason, Legalise Cannabis and ultimately the Greens.
South-Eastern Metropolitan. Labor has two seats with about 0.4 quotas to spare and the Liberals one plus about 0.6. Labor’s surplus plus the Greens’ 0.4 quotas will elect Legalise Cannabis, leaving the final seat a tight race between the second Liberal and the Liberal Democrats.
Southern Metropolitan. This seems straightforward: the Liberals win a clear two seats without much to spare, Labor falls just short of a second quota on first preferences and the Greens just short of a first, with both of the latter absorbing enough preferences to push them over their respective lines.
Western Metropolitan. Labor will win two seats with about a quarter of a quota to spare and the Liberals one with about a half. The latter two seats then develop as parallel races between the Greens, Legalise Cannabis and Victorian Socialists on the left, respectively at 8.10%, 7.45% and 7.13% at the relevant point of the count, and the second Liberal and the DLP on the right, who are respectively projected to end the count on 17.48% and 15.85%.
Western Victoria. Labor has two seats and about a quarter of a quota to spare, and the Coalition one and a bit more than half. That leaves enough left-wing votes for a third seat that could go to Legalise Cannabis or the Greens, with the former projected to emerge 11.72% to 9.57% clear after one-way traffic on preferences from Reason, Animal Justice and Labor. Most of the ensuing surplus transfer then goes to Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, who are then projected to win the final seat over the second Liberal by 17.45% to 15.88%, although this could seemingly go either way.
Trent – 735pm
That 3CP count in Hawthorn is fascinating. And I understand that had Lowe finished second she too would have lost. I didn’t think she would win this seat, but expected her to finish second on primaries (no) and second at 3CP count (no). In Kew I thought the Independent would finish ahead of Labor on primaries (she didn’t) and then win narrowly in 2CP v Liberal (she didn’t)
Toby – 938pm
Good summary of why the Teal ‘insurgency’ failed I think. Number 5 is pertinent – Monique Ryan and Zoe Daniel had huge mountains to climb to beat high profile Federal Government Ministers in Kooyong and Goldstein, electorates that had always been held by the conservative parties. You did get the feeling that those running for the equivalent state districts maybe thought they were going to benefit from the ‘coat-tails’ (or whatever the appropriate metaphor is!) of those two extraordinary wins. And the rules on funding definitely meant less exposure in those electorates. I had never thought much of corflutes but when there are enough of them around for an independent you do notice, and I’m sure it makes many more people get interested in the possibility of a boilover.
I wonder if like the USA we had state and federal elections on the same day (as sometimes happens depending on term lengths and synchronisation, for example both state houses in Michigan recently) whether Independents might have won those seats overlapping Kooyong and Goldstein.
Felix – 849pm
There is a theory that incessant media talk of a minority government propels more undecided voters to go ‘with the majors’. Which of course makes you wonder whether that ‘secret Labor Party internal polling’ showing Labor in huge trouble in twelve marginal seats which was breathlessly reported by the ABC was a very clever ruse fed to them. Not to mention that extraordinary (in the true sense of the word) ‘prepoll exit poll’ in Mulgrave showing the Premier in massive trouble! And maybe part of the reason those rural independents lost in Mildura and Shepparton, both of which surprised me.
I think Kevin Bonham posted some amusing statistic along the lines of the media predicting a minority government in 12? of the last 20? elections state and federal and only being right twice.
Andrews is not willingly going anywhere. He has returned consecutive landslides of 55 seats in an 88 seat chamber. He holds 62.5% of the seats which is an extraordinary return.
He will go if and when he wants to.
Who knows what will happen between now and 2026, but as it currently stands Dan is unassailable, and by golly gosh, that has our media in a twist.
(83yo Malcolm Mackerras predicted Dan would lose 12 seats….. and be forced in to minority.)
“I do believe the policy is a good one, but being able to deliver these election promises is a little more challenging now we are in opposition.”
Maybe the good voters of Narracan should take note and get with the strength while they have this chance to start a fresh.
Time will tell.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-06/nationals-claim-seat-of-mildura-vic-election-jade-benham/101739632
From this mornings Age
We wuz robbed, says Andrews’ Liberal challenger in Mulgrave
“Michael Piastrino, the Liberal who challenged Premier Daniel Andrews in his seat of Mulgrave and who spent much of the campaign cosying up to the fringe “freedom movement”, just can’t let it go.
With his official campaign Facebook page – along with those of every other failed candidate – scrubbed out of existence by the party shortly after the vote to avoid unseemly outbursts, Piastrino has taken to TikTok for a little Donald Trump-style election denying, claiming Andrews’ decisive win with nearly 51 per cent of the primary vote “didn’t add up” and challenging Andrews to a bizarre three-way run-off between the premier, defeated independent Ian Cook and Piastrino.
The Liberals might be looking for original thinkers to contest the next election, but Piastrino shouldn’t expect a call.
Cook wasn’t happy with the count either, but at least he stayed on planet Earth, asking the electoral commission for a recount. The commission said no.
Meantime, the “freedom” fighters are – you guessed it – alleging a conspiracy by Labor, the commission and lord knows who else to get Andrews fraudulently elected.
The call went out in the cooker online channels for a show of force at state parliament on Saturday, but this was no January 6 US Capitol-scale effort. A few dozen showed up.”
Grime says:
Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 6:42 am
Ah yes, the true face of the Liberal Party. The same Party, both of whose prospective leaders are welcoming Renee Heath to their party room. Apparently, aiming to infiltrate their own party (allegedly) in order to prosecute the agenda of a fundamentalist church that hates gay and trans people is A-OK.
Wonder how that 2022 state election review is going. Looks like they’re really onto a winnah!
The candidate for Mulgrave was the endorsed Liberal Party candidate
Says it all about the Liberal Party, hey?
Then you get to the endorsed candidates with IPA affiliations
And to digress, in the Federal polling published by 9 Entertainment, the polling break up in Queensland is noted
Recognising that nearly half of the Tory seats are in Regional and Rural Queensland – and their Leader is from Queensland
The Tories hold 58 of 151 Seats so what will a wipe out in Queensland mean to them?
And their Leader?
Plus the impact in State elections, the next cab off the rank being NSW (followed by where?)
As Portugal put a 4th in the back of the net
HWGA: “Recognising that nearly half of the Tory seats are in Regional and Rural Queensland – and their Leader is from Queensland”
An interesting point to ponder.
With the qualifier that many of the 21 ‘Tory’ Queensland MPs identify* as Nationals, not Liberals.
(*If we’re permitted to introduce discussion of “identity politics” in regard to the Coalition …)
Grime says:
Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 6:42 am
From this mornings Age
We wuz robbed, says Andrews’ Liberal challenger in Mulgrave
“Michael Piastrino, the Liberal who challenged Premier Daniel Andrews in his seat of Mulgrave and who spent much of the campaign cosying up to the fringe “freedom movement”, just can’t let it go.
With his official campaign Facebook page – along with those of every other failed candidate – scrubbed out of existence by the party shortly after the vote to avoid unseemly outbursts, Piastrino has taken to TikTok for a little Donald Trump-style election denying, claiming Andrews’ decisive win with nearly 51 per cent of the primary vote “didn’t add up” and challenging Andrews to a bizarre three-way run-off between the premier, defeated independent Ian Cook and Piastrino.
The Liberals might be looking for original thinkers to contest the next election, but Piastrino shouldn’t expect a call.
Cook wasn’t happy with the count either, but at least he stayed on planet Earth, asking the electoral commission for a recount. The commission said no.
Meantime, the “freedom” fighters are – you guessed it – alleging a conspiracy by Labor, the commission and lord knows who else to get Andrews fraudulently elected.
The call went out in the cooker online channels for a show of force at state parliament on Saturday, but this was no January 6 US Capitol-scale effort. A few dozen showed up.”
____________
A “runoff” (although not 3 way) has been scheduled…for 2026!
Here we go again says:
Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 7:22 am
The candidate for Mulgrave was the endorsed Liberal Party candidate
Says it all about the Liberal Party, hey?
Then you get to the endorsed candidates with IPA affiliations
And to digress, in the Federal polling published by 9 Entertainment, the polling break up in Queensland is noted
Recognising that nearly half of the Tory seats are in Regional and Rural Queensland – and their Leader is from Queensland
The Tories hold 58 of 151 Seats so what will a wipe out in Queensland mean to them?
And their Leader?
Plus the impact in State elections, the next cab off the rank being NSW (followed by where?)
As Portugal put a 4th in the back of the net
____________
IIRC from the other thread, the Resolve poll 2PP derived from their PV numbers for (federal) Labor in Qld was a few percent lower (54 or 56%?) than the smashing national number (about 60).
Someone calculated that an election on those numbers would see Labor gain 32 seats nationally.
IIRC, 5 of those gains would be in Qld (correct me if I’m wrong).
This would reduce the Coalition to 16 seats (STILL A MAJORITY out of 30), while Labor would improve to 10, alongside 4 cross-benchers.
The Coalition would retain a majority of Qld seats despite suffering a thumping 2PP defeat.
Can someone explain Qld to me? (This is becoming personal: Ms Snappy and I are moving there early next year. Will I survive?)
Oliver Sutton says:
Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 8:44 am
HWGA: “Recognising that nearly half of the Tory seats are in Regional and Rural Queensland – and their Leader is from Queensland”
An interesting point to ponder.
With the qualifier that many of the 21 ‘Tory’ Queensland MPs identify* as Nationals, not Liberals.
(*If we’re permitted to introduce discussion of “identity politics” in regard to the Coalition …)
____________
Of the 121 HoR seats outside Qld, the Coalition hold 37.
37.
30.58% (rounded to 2 places).
Australia is a place of electoral sanity. Then there’s Qld…
(BTW, the Coalition hold 58 of the total of 151 HoR seats…38.2%! Worst result since the formation of the Liberal Party. Worse than 1946. Worse than 1983.)
Snappy Tom: “Can someone explain Qld to me?”
I’ve lived (t)here for nigh on 70 years.
[thinks …]
Nah, sorry … I’ve got nothing …
I would like to address the so-called ‘theory’ that talk of hung parliaments drives voters to seek ‘stability’ in the major parties.
In this election, despite the talk of Labor losing it’s majority and ending up in hung parliament territory, the votes shares of Labor and the Coalition both fell. In the case of Labor, by nearly six percent.
An electoral system which rewards getting votes in the right places makes it look like voters headed for ‘stability’ by delivering a huge majority of seats, but that’s misleading. Nobody votes for a particular majority, only for individual candidates in their own region, and that data tells a different story.
The ‘theory’ (actually an hypothesis, or as I would prefer to call it, a load of made-up claptrap) has not a shred of solid evidence to support it.
Oliver Sutton @ #111 Wednesday, December 7th, 2022 – 9:15 am
Troppo disease?
EightES @ #112 Wednesday, December 7th, 2022 – 9:29 am
I’m pretty sure that whilst not voting for labor directly their figures were heavily boosted by 2nd preference votes which blew the Libs out of the contest in a number of instances.
Was that the intention of voters clearly making their intentions apparent.
In any election washup, it’s normal for the commentariat to tell us what was in the minds of the voters. We hear things like;
“They wanted to send a protest vote, but only in safe seats where they knew it wouldn’t affect the result.”
“They only voted for minor parties because they knew (Party X) would get their preferences.”
“They decided to give (Party Y) a clear majority, to end the instability.”
And so on.
But it’s garbage. They’re just making it up. In the first place, there’s no way to know what is in the mind of individual voters when the cast their ballot, and in the second place that’s what we have – individual voters. There’s no collective mind that says “We’re going to deliver such-and-such a majority to whatever party”.
Any commentator who says, “The voters decided to do whatever for some reason or other”, is making it up in the hope that we, the public, will uncritically think it sounds reasonable and that he or she is a guru.
The Liberals didn’t move many of their marginal seats into the ‘fairly safe’ column at all:
– Benambra: 1.1% (vs IND)
– Croydon: 1.3%
– Polwarth: 1.8%
– Caulfield: 2.1%
– Kew: 3.7% (vs IND but probably similar vs ALP if Brighton & Hawthorn are any indication)
– Brighton: 4.2%
– Warrandyte: 4.2%
– Berwick: 4.7%
Hawthorn, while a gain, remains very marginal too at 1.7%.
These two seats they only *just* moved above 5%:
– Sandringham: 5.1%
– Evelyn: 5.2%
Of the 4 seats they previously had between 5-10% margins (excluding Narracan), two still remain in that range (Bulleen & Malvern) while two have actually moved into the marginal column now:
– Mornington: 0.7% (vs IND, but would still be marginal vs ALP too)
– Rowville: 3.7%
There are only 2 seats they managed to move above 6%:
– Eildon: from 1.1% to 7.1%
– Nepean: GAIN from -0.7% to 6.4%
So in addition to not really making any inroads into the “red map” whatsoever – only really cutting margins where it doesn’t matter but going backwards or remaining stagnant in all their targets – they also haven’t done anything to strengthen their “blue map” and will have just as many seats at risk that they’ll need to defend in 2026 as they did this year.
EightES: “They’re just making it up. In the first place, there’s no way to know what is in the mind of individual voters when the cast their ballot, and in the second place that’s what we have – individual voters.”
+1
The reference to coloured maps
Interesting across Australia
And in both the UK (Brexit) and the USA.
In the USA and in the UK superimpose the rust belts
In Australia?
With two children residing in the Lilydale area, the Pentecostals are very strong hence the result in Evelyn
The Parties have the information which dictates their targeting
Here we go again @ #118 Wednesday, December 7th, 2022 – 10:52 am
Same same in Narracan re Pentacostals.Large numbers of cars have the secret handshake fish symbol on the back ;-). I would suggest they are mainly small business owners and tradies who don’t mind handing over part of their incomes to feed their pastors and build bigger assembly sheds,after all their customers are footing the bill and besides the rewards of back scratching are well worth it in ‘getting the big contracts’.
I reckon there’s going to be a huge back log of the chosen ones getting in the door of Heaven,leaving no chance for the infidels and others god has chosen by order of his human facilitators to disallow when the world self implodes.
Oh,I just remembered the old joke.
Q. Why wasn’t jesus born in Australia?
A. They couldn’t find three wise men and a virgin.
Grime: “Large numbers of cars have the secret handshake fish symbol on the back ;-)”
At the local shops this morning I saw a variant: the usual fish outline, but with legs emerging below, and the word ‘Darwin’ in the centre.
Oliver Sutton @ #120 Wednesday, December 7th, 2022 – 11:20 am
I like that :-)))
According to the VEC, they’ll complete the preference distribution for Preston tonight at 6pm.
I know they’re doing the manual preference distribution for Pakenham today, any idea when they are usually completed?
I’m not sure about Pakenham, they only mention Preston’s expected time on their count update page.
https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/2022-state-election-results/count-update
They also mention that Bass has been delayed until tomorrow.
I’ve checked all the usual suspects (Kevin Bonham, Antony Green, Twitter, Google… um, here) and it’s a giant wall of blank on preference distribution times. VEC is remarkably uncommunicative.
Though at least they are doing better than Lake County, CA, which (I am ashamed to say) is only a couple of hours from where I grew up, and which is currently reporting roughly 40 percent of its expected vote tally four weeks after Election Day in the States.
I keep on reminding myself that VEC’s primary job is just to get it right! And that patience is a virtue. At least we will know the Preston result in a couple of hours, and Bass some time tomorrow. I can only imagine that, with Pakenham, the miscount issues referred to by Messrs Green and Bonham could be causing some delay. We shall see.
Here is the list of preference distributions. All are being conducted today except Bass apparently:
https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/2022-state-election-results/count-update/preference-distributions
They’ve been ticking over into the completed group pretty regularly all day. Ashwood went up about half an hour ago.
I expect they don’t have times if the counts are manual, as they won’t necessarily know when they will be finished.
‘The contest between Brad Battin and John Pesutto for the leadership of the Victorian Liberal party is on a knife-edge …’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/dec/07/battle-for-victorian-liberal-leadership-on-a-knife-edge-ahead-of-ballot
Oliver Sutton says:
Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 5:19 pm
‘The contest between Brad Battin and John Pesutto for the leadership of the Victorian Liberal party is on a knife-edge …’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/dec/07/battle-for-victorian-liberal-leadership-on-a-knife-edge-ahead-of-ballot
———-
I’m barracking for Pesutto on the basis that whoever wins will probably be knifed (politically) before the next election. Mr Battin, or another RWNJ standard bearer, can then try to persuade the Victorian electorate of the virtues of far right conservatism in 2026, in the heroic hope that Victorians really didn’t mean it in 2018 and 2022.
Some interesting 3CP results from Preference Distributions today for Albert Park, Footscray and Pascoe Vale. Labor won all three on 2CP.
Albert Park:
– Labor 39.4%
– Liberal 34.7%
– Greens 25.9%
Footscray:
– Labor 46.5%
– Greens 32.5%
– Liberal 21.1%
Pascoe Vale:
– Labor 42.4%
– Greens 32.3%
– Liberal 25.2%
max says:
Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 5:26 pm
Oliver Sutton says:
Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 5:19 pm
‘The contest between Brad Battin and John Pesutto for the leadership of the Victorian Liberal party is on a knife-edge …’
I’m barracking for Pesutto on the basis that whoever wins will probably be knifed (politically) before the next election. Mr Battin, or another RWNJ standard bearer, can then try to persuade the Victorian electorate of the virtues of far right conservatism in 2026, in the heroic hope that Victorians really didn’t mean it in 2018 and 2022.
中华人民共和国
I hope they knife each other!
3CP count in Albert Park was:
39.4% ALP
34.7% LIB
25.9% GRN
Greens still weren’t close yet. Given how electoral commissions are generally pretty conservative about conducting a non-classic 2CP count on election night unless there’s an incumbent, the decisions to do ALP v GRN in Albert Park and LIB v IND in Brighton were just baffling. In both seats, it was always going to be a long shot that the Greens or Felicity Frederico could make the 2CP count. They must have just based their decisions off media reporting rather than doing any analysis of the actual probabilities. Felicity Frederico didn’t even make the 3CP count in Brighton, which should have been easy to predict.
EDIT: Posted this at the same time as Kirksdarke and didn’t realise he had posted the same numbers for Albert Park at the same time!
In Caulfield, only 652 preferences went to Southwick when Nomi Kaltman was excluded (and that would include preferences she got from other excluded minors), compared to 2451 to Labor & Greens.
Nowhere near his 1683 vote winning margin so we can pretty much rule out the hypothesis that her running may have helped Southwick retain or disrupted Labor’s chances too much.
Heh, it happens.
Of interest at least is that even if the Liberals are holding on to second spot in Albert Park, it still very much remains a 3CP seat.
Also, Footscray and Pascoe Vale have now become target seats for the Greens in 2026. Footscray had its sophomore surge for Katie Bell this time, so it should be a seat to watch next time. Meanwhile Pascoe Vale just elected a new Labor member, Anthony Cianflone, so he’ll likely have that bonus next time around.
Update from VEC’s twitter.
VEC
@electionsvic
Official
The preference distribution for the close seat of Pakenham District, which commenced today, will be finalised tomorrow. Once published, results will appear on https://vec.vic.gov.au/results/2022-state-election-results/results-by-district/pakenham-district-results #VicVotes
6:32 PM · Dec 7, 2022
They also mentioned that Preston’s results have been processed and will be published shortly.
Kirsdarke
Footscray was very significantly changed in the redistribution, losing 20,000 voters in safe Labor suburbs west of Footscray itself, and gaining 15,000 from gentrified suburbs to the south like Seddon and Yarraville.
That’s the main reason the Greens came second. Well, that and a correction back from the Greens’awful 2018 candidate. It would have also blunted any sophomore surge for Katie Hall, as a solid third of the electorate would not have previously had her as their MP.
@3z
Ah, right, I forgot about the redistribution there. That makes sense now.
It’ll be interesting to see how this political realignment in the western suburbs plays out in future. I hope it results in good things for that part of Melbourne.
Even though I live in Ballarat, whenever I travel to Melbourne via train, I can’t help but notice that the western suburbs tend to be dilapidated and run-down. Hopefully this result would mean that the government can shift its focus over there for life improvements.
I wonder what his story will be now that Dan’s not been ditched.
Wouldn’t it be exquisite if they lost it now after all that mates rates money donated went to waste on a dead rubber.
https://www.charidy.com/vicliberals/waynefarnham
Tim Smith has more advice for Neil Mitchell
https://mobile.twitter.com/TimSmithMP/status/1600401542729039872
Turns out Greco finished 4th in the 4CP count so the ALP v GRN count was correct after all.
Labor takes Preston with the Greens second.
“Labor wins. Gaetano finished fourth, 800 votes behind the Greens. Final preference count later this evening.” ABC – 54 Seats now to Labor.
@trent – it appears that the various EC bodies are becoming more willing in recent years to run major vs minor 2CP counts.
I’ve never seen them state this, but from the looks of it, they do the count between the two parties most likely to win the seat, not the two parties most likely to be in the final two.
In plenty of inner Melbourne seats, there’s no point doing a labor Vs liberal throw as labor are guaranteed to win it. It tells us nothing. Much better to do a labor green throw and find out whether the greens would beat labor, if they can make the top 2.
This is the sort of seat where labor might get 40, and the Libs and greens might be around 30 each. Libs can never win that so why count it?
Kirsdarke@6:10 pm
Interesting to note that a significant proportion of Liberal voters must have ignored the HTV in Pascoe Vale.
That’s a good point with Albert Park. Their indicative count ended up showing us what would have happened if the Greens did finish second which was valuable.
Strange with Brighton though because Labor went in with only a -0.5% margin and that independent was never going to have anywhere near a remote chance of winning it… but at least we got a hypothetical LIB v IND count which provided some interesting data points about preference flows.
Blatant but subtle Liberal ABC state political reporter Richard Willingham at it again only days after Vic election on ABC 7pm news.
Does a ‘nice’ spread with James prayer room Newbury down at Brighton/Elwood beach today.
Willingham pitching for Newbury future leadership starts today?
I think Newbury was out and about today as he is extremely worried that if Brad Battin wins tomorrow in the leadership contest the party will not be able to move back to the mainstream and get thumped at the next election. As a result, there will be a need for “teal” candidates at the next state election (or even a Liberal-lite party) and they will be more successful than they were this time. Battin is certainly of the hard right and will have little appeal for anyone outside the wack job bubble.
That fact that Newbury is making this appeal through the media is suggesting that Pesutto does not have the numbers or is not confident in their numbers. The moderates are appealing to the traditional donor to voice their opinion to MPs before the vote tomorrow.
After the sixth candidate (Steph Price of the Victorian Socialists) in Preston was eliminated the count stood at:
Greco (Independent) 7709
Paterson (Green) 8085
Paliouras (Liberal) 8171
Lambert (ALP) 15892
Greco’s people were arguing the toss about every single half-questionable ballot during the count and driving the VEC staff crazy. I think they were quite happy to see him not get close.
@Daniel B
That tends to be the case when the Liberals try to play funny-buggers with preferences between Labor and Greens.
There tends to be a large portion of dyed-in-the-wool Liberals that are like “Tell ’em they’re dreaming.” when they get a HTV card that wants them to preference Greens above Labor.
In fact that was regarded as a major reason why Ted Baillieu’s Liberals won the 2010 election, when they made the decision to preference the Greens last in all cases. That seemed to be the winning move somehow in that election.
By comparison, Matt Guy’s decision to have Liberal HTV cards put Labor last and preference Greens over them seems to have backfired. Mainly because in doing so, their message in those 3CP electorates seemed to be “Vote for us first, then preference the Greens to make the next Labor government’s life difficult.” That was a poor decision compared to 2010’s “This is between us and Labor, leave the Greens and the other independents out of it.” message.
The result is that seats that the Liberals need to win to gain government like Ashwood, Ringwood and Box Hill swung further to Labor and cemented the win.
BS Fairman
Greco’a supporters in the Save the Preston Market crowd are well intentioned, but like any other NIMBY, they can be a but intense.
Kirsdarke
I believe it was the then Nationals leader Peter Ryan who convince Baillieu to carry out that strategy. And I agree I think it was a winning move in a very close election that they ended up winning 45 seats to 43. And there were no independents or Greens elected (in the lower house)- the only time this has happened since 1992.
This time it was a very wishy-washy message – “The Greens who we always tell you are even worse than Labor and would push Labor even further left if they somehow were part of a Labor-led government, well maybe (because obviously we can’t win) we think you should try and help those Greens win a few seats to hopefully force Labor into a minority government … with … those same terrible Greens we’ve been warning you about. And then they would … oh this looks sort of contradictory doesn’t it?…”