Click here for full Victorian election results updated live.
Friday, December 8
The last in doubt seat was determined in Labor’s favour today, with the preference distribution in Bass showing Labor incumbent Jordan Crugnale the winner with 20,803 votes (50.24%) over 20,601 (49.76%) for Liberal candidate Alan Brown. Labor thus emerges with 56 lower house seats, up one from their total in 2018; the Liberals on 19, down two, and the Nationals on nine, up three, with one or the other presumably to win Narracan when the supplementary election is held; the Greens four, up one; and independents from three to zero.
In the upper house count, the ABC’s projected margin for Transport Matters incumbent Rod Barton over Aiv Puglielli of the Greens at the final count for North-Eastern Metropolitan has narrowed to 16.95% to 16.38%, at which point the Greens could be confident that below-the-line votes would win them the seat. Barton is also a hair’s breadth away from exclusion behind Sustainable Australia at an earlier point in the count.
Thursday, December 8
Labor chalked up another win today when the button was pressed on Pakenham, revealing that their candidate Emma Vulin prevailed over David Farrelly of the Liberals at the last by 19,587 (50.39%) to 19,280 (49.61%). That gets Labor to 55 seats, which most likely will get to 56 when the button is pressed tomorrow on Bass, barring the emergence of some as yet undetected anomaly that up-ends the 211 vote margin on the two-candidate preferred count.
Wednesday, December 7
The preference distribution for Pakenham, earlier promised for today, will now be finalised tomorrow according to the VEC. That remains the only seat in doubt now that Northcote is decided for Labor, although I note that the ABC still rates Bass, where Labor leads by 211, as in doubt. There too the VEC is promising a preference distribution tomorrow. The preference distribution in Preston established that independent Gaetano Greco did not in fact make the final count, at which Labor retained the seat ahead of the Greens by a margin of 2.1%.
Tuesday, December 6
A preference distribution has been run for Northcote, which I believe was conducted electronically, with Labor incumbent Kat Theophanous making it over the line at the final count with 21,413 votes (50.22%) to Greens candidate Campbell Gome’s 21,229 (49.78%). The VEC site says “a recheck is taking place for this district”, but the ABC reports the figures as final.
In the other yet-to-be-called seat, Pakenham, Antony Green relates that the re-check of first preferences has shown up anomalies that will put Labor ahead when corrected, with the published results remaining those of the initial count. This involved an increase in the number of votes designated informal, which cut 274 from the Liberal primary vote tally compared with 111 from Labor’s. The difference is sufficient to cancel out the Liberals’ 90 vote lead on the two-candidate preferred count, though not so handily that you would rule out further anomalies tipping the result back the other way. The matter will seemingly be clarified when a full preference distribution is conducted tomorrow. Should the result go Labor’s way, they will have repeated their feat from 2018 of winning 55 seats, despite a statewide two-party swing that looks to be in excess of 3%.
Monday, December 5
My previous update dropped the ball with respect to Northcote, where a 1523-994 break on absent votes brought the Greens right back into contention. Labor now leads by 189 with the outstanding vote likely to consist of around 1500 postals, of which the latest batch broke an even 123-123, and a handful of provisionals.
The Liberals have opened a 90 vote lead in Pakenham, after the latest early votes broke 450-356 and postals broke 80-67, outweighing a 208-189 break to Labor on absents. There are still about 1500 postals to be accounted for, and since these have broken 51-49 in favour of the Liberals so far, this seems assured to remain close.
Mornington continues to edge out of reach of independent candidate Kate Lardner, with absents (349-338), early votes (268-203) and postals (110-102) all breaking slightly the way of Liberal candidate Chris Crewther, whose lead is out from 491 votes to 575. My results system is now calling it for Crewther, leaving only Northcote and Pakenham in doubt.
In the upper house count, second Liberal candidate Joe McCracken’s position in Western Victoria has strengthened appreciably, leaving him a likely winner over Stuart Grimley of Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party. The Greens and Legalise Cannabis remain in a race for a third left-wing seat, with Labor and now Liberal on course for two seats each.
Sunday, December 4
There are probably three lower house seats that are still in real doubt, not counting Narracan which will presumably be won by the Liberals or Nationals. This gets Labor to 54 seats with a best case scenario of 56; the Coalition to 26 with a best case scenario of 29; the Greens to four; and one outside possibility for an independent.
The most remarkable of the close races is Pakenham which was tied as of Friday, before Liberal candidate David Farrelly opened up a three-vote lead after a batch of absents were added over the weekend. Farrelly held a 220 vote lead mid-week before postals broke 964-781 to Labor and early votes did so by 457-420.
Labor holds a 285 lead in Bass, out from 53 after favourable results on early vote (1768-1643), absents (539-438) and recent batches of postals (826-820). Postals, of which the first batch broke strongly to the Liberals but more recent arrivals have been neutral, should account for most of the remainder, although there may also be significant numbers of outstanding absents.
Liberal candidate Chris Crewther’s lead over independent Kate Lardner in Mornington is now at 491 votes, out from 353, after postals favoured him 751-717 and early votes did so 413-329. The former were less strong for Crewther than earlier postals, of which at least 3000 yet to come. Together with the fact that further absents are likely outstanding, this means Crewther can’t be considered home and hosed quite yet, though he is clearly a short-priced favourite
Elsewhere, Paul Mercurio is probably home for Labor in Hastings, his lead out from 659 to 803 after the lastest postals broke 151-116 his way and absents broke 290-221. Labor’s lead over the Greens in Northcote is down from 874 to 781 after a batch of early votes favoured the Greens 1645-1454, outweighing an 832-734 break to Labor on the latest postals.
Now, finally, to the upper house, where the ABC is currently projecting a final result of Labor 15, Coalition 13, Legalise Cannabis three, Greens two and (deep breath) Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, Liberal Democrats, Animal Justice, Shooters Fishers and Farmers, Transport Matters, the Democratic Labour Party and One Nation on one each. However, the ABC projections assume all votes are above-the-line and duly follow the group voting tickets, which likely means an over-estimation of the number of micro-party winners. To deal with the eight regions in turn, all links below being to the ABC projections:
North-Eastern Metropolitan. Labor and the Liberals will clearly win two apiece, but the last seat could go either to the Greens or the beneficiary or the micro-party preference network, which on current numbers is projected to be Transport Matters but they come close to dropping out at a number of points in the count. Other contenders could be the Liberal Democrats and the DLP, although I would imagine below-the-line leakage would be such that their collective chances are weaker than the ABC projection indicates.
Eastern Victoria. The Liberals and Nationals have a clear two quotas and Labor one, and Labor’s surplus is well clear of what the Greens can muster, ensuring the latter drops out and elects Labor’s second candidate with a substantial surplus of left-wing votes. These then ensure that the final seat goes to Shooters Fishers and Farmers rather than One Nation.
Northern Metropolitan. Two Labor, one Liberal and one Greens candidate each stand to be elected with little surplus to spare. This makes the final seat a question of whether a right-wing preference bloc elects Adem Somyurek of the DLP, or left-wing bloc (Victorian Socialists, Legalise Cannabis and Animal Justice) elects Fiona Patten of Reason, with the former seeming increasingly more likely as the count progresses.
Northern Victoria. The Coalition has two quotas and Labor has one with a big surplus. Beyond that, it seems clear that One Nation will emerge the beneficiaries of a right-wing preference snowball that will push them from 3.75% all the way to a quota, and that Animal Justice will win a seat out of the Druery preference network they ultimately reneged on, soaking up preferences from Sack Dan Andrews, Health Australia, Derryn Hinch’s Justice, the Liberal Democrats, as well as the left-wing surplus from Victorian Socialists, Reason, Legalise Cannabis and ultimately the Greens.
South-Eastern Metropolitan. Labor has two seats with about 0.4 quotas to spare and the Liberals one plus about 0.6. Labor’s surplus plus the Greens’ 0.4 quotas will elect Legalise Cannabis, leaving the final seat a tight race between the second Liberal and the Liberal Democrats.
Southern Metropolitan. This seems straightforward: the Liberals win a clear two seats without much to spare, Labor falls just short of a second quota on first preferences and the Greens just short of a first, with both of the latter absorbing enough preferences to push them over their respective lines.
Western Metropolitan. Labor will win two seats with about a quarter of a quota to spare and the Liberals one with about a half. The latter two seats then develop as parallel races between the Greens, Legalise Cannabis and Victorian Socialists on the left, respectively at 8.10%, 7.45% and 7.13% at the relevant point of the count, and the second Liberal and the DLP on the right, who are respectively projected to end the count on 17.48% and 15.85%.
Western Victoria. Labor has two seats and about a quarter of a quota to spare, and the Coalition one and a bit more than half. That leaves enough left-wing votes for a third seat that could go to Legalise Cannabis or the Greens, with the former projected to emerge 11.72% to 9.57% clear after one-way traffic on preferences from Reason, Animal Justice and Labor. Most of the ensuing surplus transfer then goes to Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, who are then projected to win the final seat over the second Liberal by 17.45% to 15.88%, although this could seemingly go either way.
So Es, you vote for a government not to have a government?
Only to negotiate with the Upper House?
Simply, government is formed in the Lower House, that government elected on the manifesto is has put before the electorate
It has the absolute right to govern
Which is why I never vote for a Minor Party or an Independent
I vote for a government
https://pakenham.starcommunity.com.au/news/2022-12-08/vulin-declares-pakenham-win/
I can see ups and downs to having no upper house. I remember Jordan Shanks raising the point a few times that letting a government do what they want shows what they really are to the public.
Campbell Newman’s LNP government of 2012-15 had no restraints, did what they liked and showed their true selves, so they were thrown out by the electorate in one term.
I’d imagine that if there was no senate, and Abbott’s horror budget of 2014-15 was able to go through as drafted, they would’ve had the same fate at the 2016 election.
However, it does have advantages as a house of review in moderating legislation. And it’s important that it’s voted for in proportional representation, so that unless one party gets significantly more than 50% of the vote, there’s likely to be a crossbench to be like “Hold on there, let me see before I vote on it.”
So it’s hard for me to say if I’d prefer it one way or another.
Antony Green – elections
@AntonyGreenElec
·
8h
Preference distributions in two remaining doubtful seats today. Labor wins Bass and it’s 55 seats matching 2018 victory. Win Pakenham and it’s 56, bigger than 2018. #springst #vicvotes
Jeremy C Brownesays:
Thursday, December 8, 2022 at 4:19 pm
With the result in North Metro becoming increasingly obvious it’s clearly time to celebrate.
Who is Adem Somyurek, this plucky latter day Saint and dragon slayer? How did he pull off this remarkable result against the odds? It just goes to show that good people ultimately triumph, usually. Facing a well resourced media darling like Patton, he could have retired and succumbed to despair. Instead this courageous hero of the people refused to submit and stood his ground, defending ordinary Victorians. For Fiona, ‘prostitution is great’ Patton, it looks like it’s back to the ironically named ‘Eros’ Foundation where she can continue to advance her nefarious cause.
Naturally I’ve sent a congratulatory message to Somyurek and a much shorter message to Ms Patton.
Somyurek is somebody who is selfless, generous in spirit, who just tries to give back as much as possible and help people” In other words, a hero.
______________________________________
Jeremy,
You do realize that if Fiona doesn’t get a seat in Parliament, she will likely be offered a role with developing policy by the Andrews government.
From the previous election, it looked like she would lose her seat.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/i-ve-got-a-mortgage-fiona-patten-to-consider-job-offer-from-andrews-20181126-p50ibv.html
Ms Patten was integral in some of the Andrews government’s signature progressive policy decisions over the past four years, including changes to assisted dying laws, Melbourne’s first safe injecting room and safe access zones around abortion clinics.
I would also present that ALP Administrations are socially progressive AND fiscally responsible
The narrative that the Tories are the better economic managers, based on for ever reducing tax rates for higher income earners and business, is a reputation of an illiterate past, an illiterate past educated by a biased media
Listen to the language of ALP treasurers
And look at the programme’s of ALP governments
Versus?
Re: Hawthorn, I have to disagree with not calling it a progressive seat, either in the social or economic sense. As pointed out by Kos, it has a rapidly expanding renting population that has turned it towards the left. Importantly, it only has a 1.7% margin when Labor seemed to basically give up on it this election for a Pesutto vs Lowe fight.
Pesutto would need to work like hell to work against the natural slant of the electorate and keep the voters that put faith in him to “reform the Liberal party” this time around to stick with him next time, and I think he’s got an uphill job.
Looking like 56 seats for the Andrews Government. The people have spoken, very loudly!
No group of people has an absolute right to govern, unless you believe in Soviet-style dictatorship.
In a functioning democracy, our elected representatives have the privilege of being just that – our representatives – and of acting on our behalf. It would be nice if they could be trusted to do so in good faith, but sadly, power corrupts and absolute power is a really bad idea.
Alpha,
“Ms Patten was integral in some of the Andrews government’s signature progressive policy decisions over the past four years, including changes to assisted dying laws, Melbourne’s first safe injecting room and safe access zones around abortion clinics.”
And these have been good for Victoria because????????
If Andrews wants to employ her that’s his problem. Hopefully any consolation prize comes at a big cost to him. Somyurek & Co, over to you.
56 seats for Dan Andrews and his troops, another result the media got totally wrong, doesn’t say much for the standard of political journalism or political punditry in Australia.
Yes, I’d expect the Herald Sun and 3AW to be constant cheerleaders for the Liberals, but the Age and ABC Melbourne were about as bad, so desperate for Dan Andrews to be cut down to size into a minority government. Nah, didn’t happen!
@EightES
“And, it’s natural Liberal territory. Labor’s win four years ago was a complete fluke.”
Don’t be too sure about that. The demographic changes are significant. Have a look at the TPP results from 2018. The area around Swinburne Uni and along the train line is growing and it’s growing in favour of Labor.
At best Pesutto is a stop-gap holding back an inner city tide that’s expanding eastwards.
@Jeremy C Browne
“And these have been good for Victoria because?”
Because they’ve improved the quality of life for those who needed those services and were affected by them.
And yes, voluntary euthanasia does improve quality of life. I am sure even you have met an elderly person who has said “I don’t want to grow old and die in pain”. Knowing that there will be the option for a peaceful death brings solace to the living.
Of course, if you don’t want that, may you enjoy your God-given right to suffer needlessly, and may it take as long as you feel appropriate for your soul.
If Fiona doesn’t get in, there’s 3 x Legalise Cannabis reps coming into the upper house.
The one simple change they could get up is the ability to drive a car with a doctors certificate if you are using CBD oil.
Hey Jeremy c ..
If you don’t want use any of these laws passed then don’t ,it’s not like your being forced to use them.
But why do you and these god given church people ,think they have the right to tell others ,how to behave or what to think.
Personally I don’t give a shit what you do with your life ,it’s yours
So why give a fuck what I do with mine.
Just saying.
Bass results will be published tomorrow.
Snappy Tom : “Can you put together a campaign ad featuring your 2nd paragraph?”
Easy peezy: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RXJKdh1KZ0w
In an earlier tweet, VEC indicated that Pakenham should be finalised today.
I guess scrutineering in both Bass and Pakenham has been heavy!
It’ll be interesting to see how Pesutto handles being leader, especially with the Murdoch media and the Liberal Party base increasingly wanting to move towards what Bill Maher has coined “Bath Salt Conservatism”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9MX37aA6lM
I think he’ll most likely rolled by Brad Battin and they’ll continue to go down the Trumpist route and continue to be surprised at how unpopular they are. Then have another 4 years of how they need to scream at more children at polling booths about how the woke left wants to trans them or the usual nonsense they spew.
Pakenham results have been published by VEC.
Labor: 19,587 votes, 50.4%
Liberal: 19,280 votes, 49.6%
Labor confirmed win by 307 votes.
https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/2022-state-election-results/results-by-district/pakenham-district-results/pakenham-results–distribution
One might even suggest that action on climate change is a progressive ideal. That’s the question innit? Is Pesutto in the camp of action on climate change, aka what Teals and the ALP share in common, or is he going to pander to the murdoch fueled reactionaries?
The people of Kooyong, Higgins and Goldstein certainly look like they’ve rejected the LNP foot-soldiers of that particular type of conservativism. This feels eerily like Turnbull…
Fantastic result for Labor in Pakenham.
Dr Bonham was on the money.
Kirsdarke @ #220 Thursday, December 8th, 2022 – 6:06 pm
Huge win.
Cookers were very loud, but very few as it turns out.
Cookers can’t count. This, and other news, at 11.
So when Labor are confirmed as winning Bass tomorrow they will go from 55-33 at 2018 election to 56-32 in 2022.
Majority increase from 22 to 24.
Just like all the media pundits predicted!
Thinking more about today’s Liberal leadership ballot, the fact that it went ahead even when the losing Liberal candidate for Pakenham, David Farrelly, being allowed to take part even with the well known fact that he probably won’t win, and he was pretty much a declared vote for Brad Battin demonstrates a weakness for Pesutto from the start.
If he had any real strength for the party, that wouldn’t have happened. But it did. And he held on to the leadership by his fingernails.
It’ll remain to be seen if that can be mended, but it’s not a good look to start with.
Mexicanbeemer wrote,”terms progressive and conservative are more accurate labels than left and right wing.” Really? I think that they are wholly inaccurate, particularly when being used to describe privileged suburbs such as Hawthorn. Yeah, of course the voters of Hawthorn are progressive, with their kids going to private schools, their tax minimization schemes, their opposition to organized labour, their multi million dollar homes and their opposition to welfare. Oh but wait.. they recognize gay rights! This is the mantra of the neo liberal! Jog on! Don’t try to kid a kidder.
Revisionist gets it,” the problem is that “progressive” in Australia has come to be equated with “social progressive” where you can apparently be anti-redistributive policy and critical institutional actors that improve economic equality (i.e. unions) and still get round calling yourself a “progressive”.”
The right seek to re define what it means to be of the left. I will tell you what it means, it means that you support re distributive economics. Of course the bourgeoisie types like Mexcanbeemer and Trent have no truck at all with that. They will be voting Tory sooner, rather than later, ( as soon as the Tories get their climate change policy together.)
You’re the one who doesn’t like how words are used clem. Maybe you should reflect on why the electorate keeps rejecting the things you stand for, instead of the words you use to describe them? You still think you have a marketing problem. You don’t. You have a product problem. As in… people don’t want what you’re sellin.
clem : “I will tell you what it means, it means that you support re distributive economics. ”
“Progressive” as an ideology means that they favour policies that “progress the human condition”. It literally says it on the tin. Maybe you should consult a dictionary before you have a go at other people’s interpretations.
pi, if you’re not a democratic socialist, what is the point? Love how all the luvvies get their jollies by describing themselves as ‘progressives’ when they send their kids to government subsidized private schools, minimize their taxes and oppose unionized labour, but wait, they BELIEVE in climate change. What a joke!
pi wrote, “Progressive” as an ideology means that they favour policies that “progress the human condition”. It literally says it on the tin. Maybe you should consult a dictionary before you have a go at other people’s interpretations.” You really are a moron. Even the British Conservative party could make that claim. OMG! Meaningless, wishy washy labels anyone? Next!
Front up chumpy.
me: “Progressive” as an ideology means that they favour policies that “progress the human condition”.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressivism
“Progressivism is the philosophy that believes it is possible through political action for human societies to improve over time. As a political movement, progressivism purports to advance the human condition through social reform based on advancements in science, technology, economic development, and social organization”
That makes me, in a word, ‘correct’.
you said: “I will tell you what it means, it means that you support re distributive economics.”
Prove it.
You have a credibility problem here flash. The big question is whether you double down.
Hey pi, the British Conservatives claim to be progressing the human condition by reducing tax, by reducing welfare and by cracking down on trade unionism. Progressiveness is basically anything you want it to be. But that’s okay, you can keep sending your brat to a private school.
Clem, the words you’re looking for are : “hey, I didn’t realise that. I never actually attempted to validate my opinion, but I appreciate you taking the time to explain it in detail.”
You’re welcome.
For pi, talking about re distributive economics is like holding up a crucifix to Dracula, yet this clown claims to be ‘progressive.’
pi wrote, “Clem, The words you’re looking for are : “hey, I didn’t realise that. I never actually attempted to validate my opinion, but I appreciate you taking the time to explain it in detail.” Of course you can’t, that’s why I helped you out. Mate, it’s perfectly legal and acceptable to be a right winger, don’t sweat it. LOl.
Don’t blame me because you don’t know how a dictionary works.
“Don’t blame me because you don’t know how a dictionary works.” Wah, wah, wah. Is that it? Pathetic! Is that the best you can come up with? Lol.
lol indeed.
So anyway, I take it that the upper house button pressings will happen at various points next week. I’ll be curious to see the proportion of above-the-line votes compared to below-the-line votes, and I hope to see an increase in below-the-line votes for a result more accurate to the actual preferences of the voters.
Also I hope to see something in the next 4 years that would abolish above-the-line group ticket votes, but I suppose we’ll have to see if the results make that possible.
So according to pi and others a person can under pay their workers, minimize their tax, send their brats to an elite private school, oppose welfare and still claim to be progressive because they support climate change science. OMG! What a deluded fool!
The Leader of the Opposition is of the Institute of Public Affairs (the IPA)
A right wing “think tank” with significant influence on the Liberal Party, including providing Candidates in “blue ribbon” Liberal Party Seats, such as Hawthorn and Kew, among others
Look at the ideology they subscribe to and the policy settings they promote
They are publicly described as a “Right wing think tank”
Moderate they are not
The leadership contest for the Liberal Party was between the competing IPA and the right wing religious element (so Pentecostals)
In my view, a very ordinary choice for leadership of a very ordinary political party
Hence the ALP holding 56 seats in an 88 seat Chamber
And poised to take more in 4 years time
Interesting is that, as federally also, it is the National Party which is providing stability in the numbers of MP’s sitting on the Coalition benches
So how long before the Nationals become the Opposition, noting West Australia and the LNP in Queensland?
And the Liberal Party disappear
Then speculate on governing being a contest between the far left Greens with their ideology and a Centre-left ALP, the difference being the fiscal discipline of the ALP, so responsible
Because that is what the future may look like as the Liberal Party disappears aka WA
Clem, Winston Churchill was right… you need to lift your game
Winston Churchill: “An empty taxi pulled up and out stepped Clement Attlee”
“The Leader of the Opposition is of the Institute of Public Affairs (the IPA).” No, he’s a moderate, he’s a progressive!
Words are hard.
Sprocket wrote, Clem, “Winston Churchill was right… you need to lift your game.” I have to lift my game? You’re the one quoting an arch Tory in order to make a point.
Wow clem, that’s a lot of assumptions. So apparently I’m a neoliberal who sends my kids to elite private schools and opposes unions and redistribution, and will vote Tory soon, just because I described Hawthorn as a more socially progressive Liberal seat?
Firstly I never tried to redefine what it means to be “left”, I never used the word “left” to describe Hawthorn at all, and never even called Pesutto moderate or progressive. I said Hawthorn was a more socially progressive Liberal seat.
Secondly, for the record I am a democratic socialist who is extremely pro-redistribution. I am a union member myself. My kid isn’t school age yet but we’ve already decided he’s going to public school. I don’t live in a teal seat but if I did I’d never put a teal above Labor. And I even put the Victorian Socialists #1 in the upper house in both May and November.
Not that any of that is your business, or should matter, but it’s just funny that you jumped to some conclusion that I’m a wealthy , anti-union “small l” neo-liberal just because I said Pesutto would have a hard time appealing to religious conservatives while also maintaining his fragile support in Hawthorn…
Yep the same Clement Attlee who smashed Churchill and the Tories providing a massive Labour majority in 1945 and introducing the NHS and national insurance as well as other democratic socialist benefits to the people. Clearly Sprocket and Pi would have voted for Churchill and the Tories.
Trent wrote, “I said Hawthorn was a more socially progressive Liberal seat.” Please be honest! No you did not. Later you qualified the statement when I called you out on it. You seem to be ideologically confused.
It is all relative. Hawthorn is a more progressive area than Bulleen for example and Pesutto is more progressive than Battin. What that means is if the Liberals were to run a candidate who for example believed in gay conversion therapy in Hawthorn they would lose and lose badly. It doesn’t mean they need to run a candidate who can sing the Internationale or has engaged in a tree sit in for land rights for whales. Everything is relative.