The latest Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald has Labor on 42% (up three since the poll conducted after the budget in late October), the Coalition on 30% (down two), the Greens on 11% (down two), One Nation on 4% (steady), the United Australia Party on 2% (up one) and independents on 8% (steady). No two-party preferred is provided, but based on preference flows in May this would have Labor’s lead approaching 60-40. The limited state breakdowns provided have it at about 57-43 in New South Wales, 62-38 in Victoria and 56-44 in Queensland.
Anthony Albanese records an approval rating of 60% (up three) with disapproval at 24% (down four), while Peter Dutton is respectively at 28% (down one) and 43% (up two). Albanese leads Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister 54-19, little changed from 53-19 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1611. Further results on the poll concerning the parties’ capacity to handle various issues and other aspects of their performance are featured on the Age/Herald’s Resolve Political Monitor page.
Also out this week is the Australian National University’s Australian Election Study survey, both as a summary report and a full dataset for those with the wherewithal to use it. Among many other things, the survey found that Anthony Albanese scored better when rated on a scale from one to ten than any party leader since Kevin Rudd in 2007, whereas Scott Morrison was “the least popular major party leader in the history of the AES”, which goes back to 1987. A decline in partisan attachment going back to 2010 continued apace, with only 30% and 28% now rating themselves as Coalition and Labor partisans respectively. Supporters of the teal independents were largely “tactical Labor and Greens voters”, with only 18% of their voters having defected from the Liberals. The survey also provides further evidence for what already well understood about the Coalition’s problems with women and younger voters.
Note also the post below from Adrian Beaumont about today’s US Senate run-off election in the state of Georgia, and the ongoing coverage of the Victorian election count, where Labor seems set to match its 2018 performance in terms of lower house seats.
Bro, the byelection is long gone and Batty won with only a mild swing against him – probably in the order of what you would expect when a popular incumbent retires and a byelection happens so soon after an election.
I know numerous party members. They are 40-55yo men who are anti union, anti ALP, partly conservative and partly liberal and mostly libertarian. And they feel utterly outside the Liberal Party bubble of very old, very conservative, very old fashioned cranks. The only youngish people coming into the party who are welcomed are the Alex Antic mob. The SA Liberal party is in trouble.
It’s a vicious circle. Women don’t want to join the Liberal Party because of the way women are treated in the Liberal Party and the lack of opportunities for advancement they’re given and the lack of votes they get when they are given an opportunity to be pre-selected in a contest but aren’t because of the overwhelming number of conservative voters, mostly men, that are in the branches voting in pre-selections.
We should also remember that the Liberal Party, in one or other iteration, has died before. Labor hasn’t. They had a split but they’ve never died off completely.
Barney in Cherating says:
Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 1:14 pm
Does anyone know the demographic breakdown of Liberal Party members?
中华人民共和国
I’d hazard a guess with the vast majority being “old white men”?
That being said my “Old Man” would get cranky if I told him he fitted in with the Tory membership cohort as he does say that the only good Tory is one that lost their seat to Labor!
Pi @ #896 Saturday, December 10th, 2022 – 1:21 pm
Because, as we become an alternative supply source to Russia, we are getting a lot of revenue streaming into the Budget … to fund Medicare, the NDIS, Social Security etc etc
But then numpties like Rex Douglas think we shouldn’t help out Ukraine, and by deduction, we shouldn’t pay for Medicare, the NDIS, Social Security etc etc due to the Revenue shortfall that would definitely result from no longer selling the fossil fuel workaround to the world. 😐
dave says:
Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 12:32 pm
Putin Says Russia May Add Nuclear First Strike to Strategy
Vladimir Putin said Russia may consider formally adding the possibility of a preventive nuclear first strike to disarm an opponent to its military doctrine, just days after warning that the risk of atomic war is rising.
“We’re thinking about this,” the Russian president told reporters after a summit in Kyrgyzstan. “If we are talking about a disarming strike, perhaps we should think about using the approaches of our American partners,” he said, citing what he called US strategies to use high-accuracy missiles for a preventive strike.
The US and its allies have denounced Putin for what they call nuclear saber-rattling over his invasion of Ukraine. Russia blames the West for raising the issue first, although Kremlin officials began the threats.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-09/putin-says-russia-may-add-nuclear-first-strike-to-strategy?srnd=politics-vp
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I suspect the moment of the first nuclear missile being launched from Russia will signal the end for Russia. I suspect too that Putin knows this. He is all talk. The concept that he would risk annihilation over a failed and deeply flawed invasion of a smaller peaceful neighbour strikes me as highly unlikely.
Alpo @ #890 Saturday, December 10th, 2022 – 1:05 pm
Is she being disingenuous or an idiot? The cap doesn’t apply to sales overseas on the export market.
Simon Henny Penny Katich says:
Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 1:22 pm
Not sure if it’s beeen posted but this is in the Oz about the replacement in Vicki Chapmans’ seat in SA.
Bro, the byelection is long gone and Batty won with only a mild swing against him – probably in the order of what you would expect when a popular incumbent retires and a byelection happens so soon after an election.
中华人民共和国
Geez Jan you got your knickers in a knot this morning (suppose it’s afternoon there).
I was aware of the result in the byelection just pointing out that the leader didn’t get the candidate (and now member) he wanted and the Liberals “female problem”.
I am happy you called my Bro thou!
Upnorth
Snap, we must’ve been reading that same article at the same time.
Cronus,
I think Putin is losing his mind. Didn’t he just say the other day he would not be the first one to launch a nuclear attack?
And I note that he is all over the shop lately like a madwoman’s breakfast, having tea with actresses pretending to be Mothers of War Heroes, drinking champagne at another PR pic fac, going to his NATO equivalent conference, going back to Kyrgyztan. What next? Dancing with the Stars?
Correction, there are also a lot of very very wealthy 50-70yo men in the SA Liberal Party who arent cranks but are all about wealth protection. They dont necessarily want to be the candidate and will support someone they trust. These twats are the ones that lobbied hard to water down the land tax changes (that the more liberal elements of the party were pushing). I heard they threatened to burn the house down.
Barney in Cherating says:
Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 1:14 pm
Does anyone know the demographic breakdown of Liberal Party members?
—————————————
Just going by the Liberals that i know they are mostly older wealthier men from private school and small business backgrounds. The younger Liberals typically come from wealthy backgrounds but there seems to be different between the genders with the women from wealthier backgrounds being more progressive than the men and its the women turning away from the Liberals.
Cronus says:
Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 1:31 pm
Upnorth
Snap, we must’ve been reading that same article at the same time.
中华人民共和国
Great minds cobber, Great minds.
UpN, seriously bro, you read a tone into my posts that arent there.
Boxers today. Cant knot them. Giving the lads some air time after a long hot day yesterday.
Mexicanbeemer @ #881 Saturday, December 10th, 2022 – 12:44 pm
Rex Douglas is a fcking numpty, eh? 😆
We’re just about on track to have the Budget back in balance by next year! I think we’ll be able to afford those things. 🙂
C@tmomma @ #1298 Saturday, December 10th, 2022 – 1:16 pm
We don’t pay for electricity, so you’d lose.
Simon Henny Penny Katich @ #875 Saturday, December 10th, 2022 – 12:24 pm
I think the bit you left out, the Aspergers, explains a lot of it. Not all of it. Just uber fizzy pop!
Barney in Cherating @ #1296 Saturday, December 10th, 2022 – 1:11 pm
You don’t consider war profiteering a negative?
“ This week’s Newspoll showed Labor’s primary vote at 39 per cent, an astonishing increase since the election with its two-party preferred lead 55-45 per cent. This is an extended honeymoon but something more – the aspiration for a longer-run sustained Labor revival. That won’t be easy given Labor will no longer enjoy Scott Morrison’s unpopularity and can no longer just be a “small target” as it was at the May election.
But Labor’s qualitative research shows Albanese is perceived favourably. “They’re just governing” is one sentiment; another is “they’re doing what they said they’d do”, which goes to trust in office. Yet another sentiment is relief because “we were sick of the constant politics”.
Paul Kelly at least can see what his overlords and the Coalition cannot. He hints that Labor is the key to the future success or demise of the two party system in Australia. The irony is palpable.
Just wait until 2025 by which time most of this election’s promises and much more will have been achieved. I expect a better performance then by Labor with so many runs on the board.
Paywalled
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Finquirer%2Fportrait-of-a-politically-fractured-nation%2Fnews-story%2F83999f65a3ae114a97966fabb90caca4&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=dynamic-groupb-control-noscore&V21spcbehaviour=append
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 1:34 pm
Cronus,
I think Putin is losing his mind. Didn’t he just say the other day he would not be the first one to launch a nuclear attack?
And I note that he is all over the shop lately like a madwoman’s breakfast, having tea with actresses pretending to be Mothers of War Heroes, drinking champagne at another PR pic fac, going to his NATO equivalent conference, going back to Kyrgyztan. What next? Dancing with the Stars?
——————————————————————————————-
Can he cook perhaps (sniggers)?
C@tmomma @ #1304 Saturday, December 10th, 2022 – 1:27 pm
So, what do we do when this war ends? Start another one?
Simon Henny Penny Katich @ #1305 Saturday, December 10th, 2022 – 1:34 pm
They are the ones who think Alexander Downer was a role model. They haven’t moved on from Remove R (for “Rural”) at SPSC (“Saints”) in 1968.
Simon Henny Penny Katich says:
Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 1:36 pm
UpN, seriously bro, you read a tone into my posts that arent there.
Boxers today. Cant knot them. Giving the lads some air time after a long hot day yesterday.
中华人民共和国
Now that’s more my style. BTW when is the Kombi van trip across the Nullarbor? Some band playing in Perth I believe was the excuse. If I can make it I will being some of Queenslands’ finest bottles of “Sqaure Bear” to aid in our star gazing.
Cronus
The ALP only needs to govern solidly and sensibly in the McGowan/Andrews/Anastasia mold to be set up for a good decade in office but many ALP supporters wanted big bangs with bells whistles and sirens but we are now just short of 20% of the way though this term and there has been no hint of scandal and no minister under the pump.
Further reference to the Kelly article
“ Co-author of the ANU study, distinguished professor of political science Ian McAllister, says: There is a view among a lot of younger people, millennials and Generation Z, that the Liberals are on the wrong side of history, not just on climate change but other issues such as same-sex marriage.”
Bingo! Not just a change of generations but a change of issues. The Coalition are simply incapable by design of adaptation to change.
Liberals need to figure out that meretricious does not mean meritorious.
Cronus says:
Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 1:53 pm
Further reference to the Kelly article
“ Co-author of the ANU study, distinguished professor of political science Ian McAllister, says: There is a view among a lot of younger people, millennials and Generation Z, that the Liberals are on the wrong side of history, not just on climate change but other issues such as same-sex marriage.”
—————————-
Would add Gen X because there isn’t much difference between them and millennials.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 1:53 pm
Cronus
The ALP only needs to govern solidly and sensibly in the McGowan/Andrews/Anastasia mold to be set up for a good decade in office but many ALP supporters wanted big bangs with bells whistles and sirens but we are now just short of 20% of the way though this term and there has been no hint of scandal or minister under the pump.
—————————————————————————————-
+1 fingers crossed.
For a progressive government to end progressive taxation is not a good look. Thats existing revenue now not being collected no matter how you try and spin making it up in other ways.
Keeping the principle of the rich pay their fair share does not rule out collecting other revenue.
Over time I think Labor will restore a progressive tax system. Maybe an election promise.
Thats why I thought Labor did not have to vote for them. I think Labor going yes we are tax and spend is a winning election position. History over decades before the GST. I acknowledge I saw no problem with Bill Shorten and his abolish negative gearing policy before that election.
However this is why I think Labor rusted ons will have to get used to the Greens making hay while Labor keeps it’s election promise.
Another Toilet idea (AKA Ideas I have on the toilet):
– There is a major risk that the Republican held HoR in America will become a roadblock in providing funding to Ukraine after Jan 3.
– A large percentage of Republican support comes from evangelical Christians, many of whom attend Mega Churches
– ScoMo has a lot of appeal to Mega Church types. He is after all the first evangelical Prime Minister of Australia and speaks their language (both figuratively and literally).
– ScoMo is also a firm back of Ukraine
– He also rebuild his reputation here
– He could go a speaking tour of Mega Church communities in America to reinforce the need to provide support to Ukraine in the moral struggle with the Russians
– This supports Australia’s (and America’s) foreign policy goals
– Gets him out of the way for the opposition who do without him on the backbench looking like a sad sack of spuds
– Also sets himself up for an additional book tour for when he writes is inevitable book aimed at the happy clapper market.
He will come away from it looking like he is trying to do something positive and might have some success too. I am not suggesting government money be used for this endeavour but there are rich Australians and Americans who are both interested in back the Ukrainians who might be able to fund it.
Player Onesays:
Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 1:41 pm
Any excessive increase in price is a negative. It doesn’t matter what the cause is.
The issue for Labor is, what can they do to control excessive price variations domestically. This is what they have focused on, tempering the size of any increase.
Some increase in the price of gas and coal is positive as it helps create an environment where investing in renewables is even more attractive, but when this increase is too large it has a negative impact on the economy in general.
Cronus:
This article, from a few months back, is a pretty good reality check on the dynamic of mutual deterrence playing out over Ukraine: https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/who-is-deterring-whom-the-place-of-nuclear-weapons-in-modern-war/
How stupid does she think her audience is?
Cronus et al
“ Not sure if it’s beeen posted but this is in the Oz about the replacement in Vicki Chapmans’ seat in SA.
Does anyone know the demographic breakdown of Liberal Party members?”
Xanthippe and I live in Pyne’s former federal seat (Sturt) now held by a twerp named James Stevens (invisible in electorate) and the state seat of Bragg (formerly Chapman, now Jack Batty). Both MPs scream out “private school boy”.
So for our sinns this year we have handed out HTVs for the Federal and State elections and State bi-election. It was striking to see the Liberal booth workers. The young ones I saw at Federal and State were hired! All the Liberal party members I met were fifty plus except…
At the State bi-election there were noticeably more Liberal booth workers, including more under fifties, including women under forty! But the funny thing was, the two Liberal booth workers I spoke to who were younger (in thirties I’d guess) had both been bussed in from the Barossa Valley! They literally had no female members under 40 in the local branch.
B.S. Fairman says:
Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 2:18 pm
Another Toilet idea (AKA Ideas I have on the toilet):
– There is a major risk that the Republican held HoR in America will become a roadblock in providing funding to Ukraine after Jan 3.
– A large percentage of Republican support comes from evangelical Christians, many of whom attend Mega Churches
– ScoMo has a lot of appeal to Mega Church types. He is after all the first evangelical Prime Minister of Australia and speaks their language (both figuratively and literally).
– ScoMo is also a firm back of Ukraine
– He also rebuild his reputation here
– He could go a speaking tour of Mega Church communities in America to reinforce the need to provide support to Ukraine in the moral struggle with the Russians
– This supports Australia’s (and America’s) foreign policy goals
– Gets him out of the way for the opposition who do without him on the backbench looking like a sad sack of spuds
– Also sets himself up for an additional book tour for when he writes is inevitable book aimed at the happy clapper market.
He will come away from it looking like he is trying to do something positive and might have some success too. I am not suggesting government money be used for this endeavour but there are rich Australians and Americans who are both interested in back the Ukrainians who might be able to fund it.”
=============
That is actually a very good idea.
Why not get the rich Australians and rich Americans to donate directly to the Ukrainians.
Might save a lot on tithes….
Billy Kaplan says:
Over time I think Labor will restore a progressive tax system. Maybe an election promise.
____________
I don’t see how this is ever going to be made right. Sacrificing a progressive taxation system for a supposedly better chance at getting into government is just another in a long line of capitulations since Tampa. They should change their mind, they want to change their mind, but fear controls them.
caf says:
Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 2:32 pm
Cronus:
This article, from a few months back, is a pretty good reality check on the dynamic of mutual deterrence playing out over Ukraine: https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/who-is-deterring-whom-the-place-of-nuclear-weapons-in-modern-war/
——————————————————————————————-
Agreed. I too thought it was a sound article. Nuclear weapons are certainly terrible yet out of this, nuclear deterrence has thus far been successful. Of course there are no guarantees but as most would agree, it would likely take a madman/woman to unleash MAD and to this point, Putin and Xi at least don’t appear crazy enough to do so. Actually, I’d be a little more worried about Kim Jong-Un, I’m less convinced of his state of mind a grasp on reality.
Actually, I’d be a little more worried about Kim Jong-Un, I’m less convinced of his state of mind a grasp on reality.
_______
Come on. you’ve never fed an uncle to a pack of staving dogs?
“nath says:
Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 2:47 pm
Billy Kaplan says:
Over time I think Labor will restore a progressive tax system. Maybe an election promise.
____________
I don’t see how this is ever going to be made right. Sacrificing a progressive taxation system for a supposedly better chance at getting into government is just another in a long line of capitulations since Tampa. They should change their mind, they want to change their mind, but fear controls them.”
Nath, wake up, it was Albanese who told Scomo to split the bill, but Scomo wanted to play political games and he introduced an omnibus bill instead with tax cuts for everybody. Scomo wanted to win the election by accusing the ALP of denying tax cuts to the poor and the middle class. Instead, those tax cuts were introduced, Scomo lost his magic bullet and in fact he and his Coalition were destroyed at the federal election.
Stage 3 will be in place for one year only during this term. At the next election we will see which taxation regime the ALP will offer to the voters. Until then, enjoy the ALP Federal government and their steady dismantling of the Coalition Neoliberal crap. Everybody seem to be happy and even Greens supporters have finally stopped mentioning Stage-3. The only ones who still do so, are those who love Stage-3, that is Liberal party supporters, but funny enough they mention Stage-3 not with pride, which is what they really feel, but with “fake outrage” at the ALP…. Ha, ha, ha…. what a bunch of losing buffoons.
I think the Liberals want to win, at least at a national level. They will find a way to remain competitive as there is too much money at stake. Their absolute core value is money. So, apparently cherished social and cultural values will be redefined and they will find a winning leader. Also, the voting system basically ensures a competitive two party system over time.
But how long will this adjustment process take and will it require another Federal loss first? If you look at the creation of modern ALP ideology, that took about 4 years from 1978 to 1982. That’s the period when the ALP became more ruthless about dud-leaders and more pragmatic in general.
I don’t think the Liberals have been through a similar ‘identity crisis’ in recent years but 3 or 4 years seems reasonable. Alternative things could turn bad economically over the next 18 months, and the Government not meet the proverbial challenge and the Libs win again anyway.
Alpo says:
Stage 3 will be in place for one year only during this term.
_____________
Yeah right. You think at the next election Labor is going to propose income tax increases to restore the progressive nature of the system.
No, it’s here to stay.
“Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 12:36 pm
Macarthur @ #504 Saturday, December 10th, 2022 – 12:33 pm
Rex Douglas @ Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 12:29 pm:
“Tell me, what’s the logic in Labor selecting candidates with a Neo-lib/low tax ideology ..?”
==========================
One step sideways to get many steps forward, politically.
You’re not making sense.
Tell me how you properly fund Labor programs like Medicare and the NDIS if you have mp’s wanting ludicrous tax cuts that slash revenue to pay for it ?”
Don’t be ridiculous Rex, the ALP government is pocketing an enormous amount of money right now, the current account balance is skyrocketing positive. There is plenty of money to pay for all the promises, and there will be even more when the taxation regime will be revisited in the second term. In the meantime, the Coalition is languishing in their losers’ hole, with no way out.
Oh, btw, what’s your opinion about the Scomo Coalition government that plunged this country into a historically high debt: about $1 Trillion ($963 Billion; 45.1% of GDP)!!… Any comment?…
“nathsays:
Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 3:06 pm
Alpo says:
Stage 3 will be in place for one year only during this term.
_____________
Yeah right. You think at the next election Labor is going to propose income tax increases to restore the progressive nature of the system.
No, it’s here to stay.”
That “No, it’s here to stay” of yours is just delusion mixed up with propaganda…. Just wait and see, and the truth will be revealed to you in due course… 🙂
“Celebrity chef among suspects in Germany rightwing coup plot”
So he really is a ‘Cooker’?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/09/celebrity-chef-suspects-germany-rightwing-coup-plot-reichsburger
“B.S. Fairmansays:
Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 2:18 pm
…– ScoMo has a lot of appeal to Mega Church types….”
With the number of atheists and agnostics going up and upper in Australia, according to the last census, methink that Scomo will have a lot of appeal to Micro Church types…
Alpo – I am not suggesting he go to Aussie Mega Churches. I am saying he goes to American one’s. They are the one’s with pull in American politics.
You don’t have to share their beliefs but in order to maintain a global coalition to oppose the Russian aggression, it is a wise idea to seek as wide as support as possible.
Also it will give him a potential way out of politics; otherwise he will hang around like a bad smell. There is a lot of money in the US speaking circuit.
The Windies have gone all kamikaze at the Adelaide Oval.
2 run outs in 9 for 173, only 338 behind Australia’s 1st dig score.
If the only knock on the government is that people on $150k will pay the same tax rate as someone on $75k then there isn’t much hope for the Liberals and unions can now say members wont be hit with higher taxes because that has come up before.
Looks like the Windies all out for 214 and 297 behind Oz. Wonder if Australia will enforce the follow on this time. I’m up country and reception on and off so not sure of latest details.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 5:39 pm
If the only knock on the government is that people on $150k will pay the same tax rate as someone on $75k then there isn’t much hope for the Liberals
________
The knock is that people on 199k will be paying the same rate as people on 46k. There is nothing progressive in that system apart from the extremities.