Resolve Strategic poll and Australian Election Study (open thread)

Another poll finds the Albanese government ending the year in as strong a position as ever, plus the release of data from the Australian National University’s regular post-election survey.

The latest Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald has Labor on 42% (up three since the poll conducted after the budget in late October), the Coalition on 30% (down two), the Greens on 11% (down two), One Nation on 4% (steady), the United Australia Party on 2% (up one) and independents on 8% (steady). No two-party preferred is provided, but based on preference flows in May this would have Labor’s lead approaching 60-40. The limited state breakdowns provided have it at about 57-43 in New South Wales, 62-38 in Victoria and 56-44 in Queensland.

Anthony Albanese records an approval rating of 60% (up three) with disapproval at 24% (down four), while Peter Dutton is respectively at 28% (down one) and 43% (up two). Albanese leads Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister 54-19, little changed from 53-19 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1611. Further results on the poll concerning the parties’ capacity to handle various issues and other aspects of their performance are featured on the Age/Herald’s Resolve Political Monitor page.

Also out this week is the Australian National University’s Australian Election Study survey, both as a summary report and a full dataset for those with the wherewithal to use it. Among many other things, the survey found that Anthony Albanese scored better when rated on a scale from one to ten than any party leader since Kevin Rudd in 2007, whereas Scott Morrison was “the least popular major party leader in the history of the AES”, which goes back to 1987. A decline in partisan attachment going back to 2010 continued apace, with only 30% and 28% now rating themselves as Coalition and Labor partisans respectively. Supporters of the teal independents were largely “tactical Labor and Greens voters”, with only 18% of their voters having defected from the Liberals. The survey also provides further evidence for what already well understood about the Coalition’s problems with women and younger voters.

Note also the post below from Adrian Beaumont about today’s US Senate run-off election in the state of Georgia, and the ongoing coverage of the Victorian election count, where Labor seems set to match its 2018 performance in terms of lower house seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,607 comments on “Resolve Strategic poll and Australian Election Study (open thread)”

Comments Page 28 of 53
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  1. nath says:
    Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 5:58 pm

    Mexicanbeemer says:
    Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 5:39 pm

    If the only knock on the government is that people on $150k will pay the same tax rate as someone on $75k then there isn’t much hope for the Liberals
    ________
    The knock is that people on 199k will be paying the same rate as people on 46k. There is nothing progressive in that system apart from the extremities.
    ————————
    They pay the same rate but pay more in dollar terms.

  3. “Explosions have been reported at Berdiansk airbase in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region. Three large explosions were heard, as well as smaller ones, near the Russian-occupied city on the coast of the Sea of Azov.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/10/russia-ukraine-war-at-a-glance-what-we-know-on-day-290-of-the-invasion
    ============================

    Berdiansk is on the Sea of Azo coast, about half-way between Melitopol and Mariupol. This means all of the last remaining ground line of communication to Russian forces in Kherson and Crimea is exposed to Ukrainian attack. So much for the military value of that much-vaunted “land bridge” via Mariupol and Melitopol.

  5. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 6:00 pm

    nath says:
    Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 5:58 pm

    Mexicanbeemer says:
    Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 5:39 pm

    If the only knock on the government is that people on $150k will pay the same tax rate as someone on $75k then there isn’t much hope for the Liberals
    ________
    The knock is that people on 199k will be paying the same rate as people on 46k. There is nothing progressive in that system apart from the extremities.
    ————————
    They pay the same rate but pay more in dollar terms.
    _______
    Yes you keep trotting this out as if it is news to people. But that is not what defines a progressive income tax system.

  8. They are the ones who think Alexander Downer was a role model. They haven’t moved on from Remove R (for “Rural”) at SPSC (“Saints”) in 1968.
    ——————————
    There are Uber wealthy dentists, multi pub owning company ceos, water speculators, software company directors – and that’s just the local branch. Their interest in the liberal party is part ideological and part investment – they want others to do the front of house work but they expect a return.

    And yes, they r in a bubble often related in some way to schools or clubs or business interests. For complete and utter smegheads, they can be quite pleasant to your face.

  9. So the outgoing IBAC Commissioner in Victoria has called out the tactic (of the Opposition in Victoria) of making a referral to IBAC and then announcing that referral

    No matter any (if any) credibility attaching to the referral

    And the media play along

    A tawdry political tactic which injures the reputation of IBAC and the reputations of those the Opposition in Victoria seek to smear with their allegations

  11. While Russia claim to be considering the nuclear option, I am damn sure Australia didn’t consider it and just padded up.

  12. Upnorthsays:
    Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 5:52 pm

    Looks like the Windies all out for 214 and 297 behind Oz. Wonder if Australia will enforce the follow on this time. I’m up country and reception on and off so not sure of latest details.

    With basically no time between test these days, I doubt you’ll see any International side enforce a follow on.

  13. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 7:07 am

    Here’s one hell of a soccer story!

    A celebrity gourmet chef whose daughter is the girlfriend of the Real Madrid footballer David Alaba and an ex-police officer once tasked with protecting Jewish communities from terror attacks are among the latest figures to have been linked to the foiled Reichsbürger coup plan in Germany, with further arrests expected as investigations continue.

    …

    Frank Heppner, a star cook from Munich, who was arrested on Wednesday at a five-star hotel in the Austrian ski resort of Kitzbühel where he worked, was allegedly a member of the command staff of the military arm of the terrorist group, responsible for recruiting new members, obtaining weapons and other equipment, as well as building a bug-proof communication and IT structure. He was also tasked with running the canteen that would have provided meals for the members of the so-called “New German Army”.

    The Austrian daily Die Presse, citing investigators, said Heppner, 62, was also to be the personal cook to Heinrich XIII, Prince of Reuß, after he was installed as king. It said Heppner provided the group with money, cooking utensils, a camper van and an emergency generator.

    Heppner’s 28-year-old daughter, Shalimar, is in a relationship with Alaba, a professional footballer who plays for Real Madrid and captains the Austrian national team. The couple have a son who was born in 2019. Alaba was not responding to requests for comment, according to German media who tried to contact him.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/09/celebrity-chef-suspects-germany-rightwing-coup-plot-reichsburger
    ____________

    How long until McDonalds releases a “Reichsburger”?

  14. With basically no time between test these days, I doubt you’ll see any International side enforce a follow on.
    ————————————
    Apparently the VVS Effect is a myth. But I am not so sure. Yes, Waugh didn’t stop enforcing the follow on after that outrageous loss. But he was different. No coach or director of high performance whatsit was going to tell him what to do. But after that…. the follow on became a mountain mist frog.

  15. Socrates says:
    Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 8:22 am

    On AUKUS or JAUKUSSK(?) I’m glad to hear the visit of Marles and Wong to Japan has gone so well. It’s hard to think of any downside for Australia from a closer defense agreement with Japan.

    Enabling it to “stand on its own two feet” is also important. Such cooperation needs to be able to continue without USA in the event a future US POTUS goes Trump-like on defense and becomes isolationist again. Japan also has significant defense capabilities in its own right, including manufacturing jet fighters, subs, SAMs and SSMs.
    ____________

    “Such cooperation needs to be able to continue without USA in the event a future US POTUS goes Trump-like on defense and becomes isolationist again.”

    This is the nub of the national security problem and explored Hugh White in several articles/books over the last 5 years.

    What does non-reliance on the US mean in a world in which at least 8 nations have nuclear weapons?

  16. Socrates says:
    Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 8:47 am

    None of your Beeswax

    You are right about the need for a new name for AUKUS and PATO is probably where it needs to head.

    Thinking further about perceptions, one of the other big benefits of having Japan in JAUKUS or PATO is that it defeats claims it is merely a resurrection of the Anglosphere or European imperialism. It makes it more sellable to other Asian countries.
    ____________

    I need the acronym to be POTATO…somehow.

  17. I know this is not true … but I just noticed it, and it is kind of an amusing coincidence …

    Checking the latest Vic election count (87.1% counted), we have …

    ALP : -5.8%
    Others : +5.8%
    Liberal : -0.8%
    Greens : +0.8%
    Nationals : no change

    So can we conclude that the Others got all the ALP defectors, the Greens got all the Liberal defectors, and the Nationals went nowhere 🙂

  19. The Age 10/12
    Redlich declined to say whether the premier’s office tipped off IBAC and prompted the watchdog to seek an injunction to stop The Age reporting on a draft anti-corruption review into the Andrews government’s awarding of grants worth $3.4 million to the Health Workers Union.
    _____________________
    I reckon we all know the answer to that one.

  22. So can we conclude that the Others got all the ALP defectors, the Greens got all the Liberal defectors, and the Nationals went nowhere
    ______
    And some of the Labor vote going to the independents would have been strategic.

  23. Macarthur,
    I just listened to this:
    https://youtu.be/Yz3gqxgAMFo

    Apparently the Russians are digging a looooong line of narrow trenches behind their front line for some reason unknown to any of the military analysts on this podcast.

    They also mentioned that, smartly, the Ukrainians haven’t minded being tied up in Bakhmut. It means the Russians are expending munitions that they then can’t use elsewhere.

  24. Here we go again @ #956 Saturday, December 10th, 2022 – 6:10 pm

    So the outgoing IBAC Commissioner in Victoria has called out the tactic (of the Opposition in Victoria) of making a referral to IBAC and then announcing that referral

    No matter any (if any) credibility attaching to the referral

    And the media play along

    A tawdry political tactic which injures the reputation of IBAC and the reputations of those the Opposition in Victoria seek to smear with their allegations

    Yoo hoo, Taylormade!
    *waves* 😀

  25. Taylormade says:
    Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 7:02 pm

    Anytime you have developers in the same country as the politicians you have a problem.

    However in the case you quote it might appear it’s the Libs that are at fault.. can’t see the advantage to Labor reporting their own misleads & then leaking them….
    “ Outgoing commissioner Robert Redlich said anyone who makes a corruption complaint to IBAC should be barred from announcing the referral publicly to stop politicians casting aspersions on their opponents.”

  26. Barney in Cherating says:
    Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 6:19 pm

    Upnorthsays:
    Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 5:52 pm

    Looks like the Windies all out for 214 and 297 behind Oz. Wonder if Australia will enforce the follow on this time. I’m up country and reception on and off so not sure of latest details.

    With basically no time between test these days, I doubt you’ll see any International side enforce a follow on.
    ____________

    Also no rest days within Tests; and the track record of teams chasing even small final day totals…

  27. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 7:17 pm

    Yoo hoo, Taylormade!
    *waves*
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Waves across the Waurn Ponds paddocks?

  28. With various words getting nod for “word of the year” etc I would like to put in a vote for cook/cooker.
    Morrison member for Cook promoting Cook memories of colonial expansion and Cook “circumnavigating” Australia.
    The cooker rebellion in Victoria, NSW and elsewhere.
    Various “celebrity” cooks getting into trouble.
    Cook, the “independent” candidate against Daniel Andrews leading the charge into oblivion in the Vic state election.

  32. Screams just heard from the visitor’s ensuite. On investigation, there was a rather large huntsman under the toilet seat. I caught it by placing two sheets of A4 under it after it had moved to the toilet wall, and then placed a glass bowl on top of it. It survived minus one leg. I explained to my dear female visitor that when you live in the bush – well, the Goldie hinterland – spiders, snakes, and other creepy crawlies are commonplace; we have to learn to live with them. She said, “Screw you, Mavis. I’m out of here.” I’m demanding my money back from Tinder.

  35. C@tmomma
    What is your professional opinion on the long term daily taking of beta blockers like Metoprolol medication given multiple possible side effects?
    No urgency but appreciated if I may.

  41. Aussies declare 497 ahead.

    The West Indies would have been wise to draft legend Brian Lara into their injury-hit side in Adelaide after the 53-year-old showed he’s still got it in a priceless net session with Rashid Khan.

  42. Mavis:

    The ones that we had to watch out for when I was a kid was the green tree frogs. Mainly because they seemed to love sleeping on the blades of our ceiling fans. Turn it on at full speed while one is on there, and you’ll be greeted by the rather grim sight of a poor frog flying smack bang into the wall.

  43. Asha says:
    Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 8:42 pm

    Steelydan:

    Because Trump is pro-Putin.

    I really don’t think it goes much deeper than that.
    _____________
    I think it does go a bit deeper than that. Western admirers of Putin see him as a defender of traditional values (anti LGBTIQ), a Nationalist and pro Christian, (even if it is Orthodox Christianity). No doubt they viewed the Chechen conflict as Christianity pushing back the borders of Islam.

    He’s basically everything you want if you are an authoritarian and nationalist and was seen to be on quite a winning streak until recently.

  45. Missed this one in yesterdays’ Fin. First new one in 30 years in the UK

    “London | Australian mining investor Owen Hegarty’s £165 million ($300 million) punt on a British coalmine has paid off, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government giving the controversial project a green light.

    Mr Hegarty’s bet is on West Cumbria Mining, which has won an eight-year campaign to open the country’s first new coal mine in three decades – a project that will extract up to 2.7 million tonnes a year of metallurgical, or coking, coal until 2049.”

  47. Dr John @ #982 Saturday, December 10th, 2022 – 8:33 pm

    C@tmomma
    What is your professional opinion on the long term daily taking of beta blockers like Metoprolol medication given multiple possible side effects?
    No urgency but appreciated if I may.

    Dr John,
    Not a problem. 🙂
    The most common side effect is postural hypotension, or dizziness or felling like you are going to faint when you get up too quickly.

    The Mayo Clinic may have the best answer to the rest of your question:

    https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/mayo-clinic-q-and-a-how-long-do-you-need-beta-blockers-after-a-heart-attack/

    Of course, I am making the presumption that by saying long term, you are meaning after a heart attack? That, of course, is something to be discussed between you and your specialist and GP. If it’s for another reason then the Mayo Clinic note suggests there may be better alternatives. Again, best discussed with the Dr. Especially if you are getting blurred vision, chest pain or discomfort or slow or irregular heartbeat.

    I hope that helps you go forearmed to have a chat with your doctor about it. 🙂

  49. Their seems to be some issues with how democratic Zelenskyy really is, the banning of pro Russian parties, institutions like the Orthodox Church of Ukraine are getting a touch up and some of the actions of the State police are to heavy handed but compare that with Putin and Russia. If their are issues about anti democratic activities and a heavy handed State police these issues can be sorted after Ukraine takes its country back, they are going to need ongoing assistance.

  50. nath:

    Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 8:34 pm

    [‘Mavis, come clean, was it Tinder or Scarlet Blue?’]

    I feel I’ve been exposed. I forgive you, in the Christian tradition.

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