The latest Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald has Labor on 42% (up three since the poll conducted after the budget in late October), the Coalition on 30% (down two), the Greens on 11% (down two), One Nation on 4% (steady), the United Australia Party on 2% (up one) and independents on 8% (steady). No two-party preferred is provided, but based on preference flows in May this would have Labor’s lead approaching 60-40. The limited state breakdowns provided have it at about 57-43 in New South Wales, 62-38 in Victoria and 56-44 in Queensland.
Anthony Albanese records an approval rating of 60% (up three) with disapproval at 24% (down four), while Peter Dutton is respectively at 28% (down one) and 43% (up two). Albanese leads Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister 54-19, little changed from 53-19 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1611. Further results on the poll concerning the parties’ capacity to handle various issues and other aspects of their performance are featured on the Age/Herald’s Resolve Political Monitor page.
Also out this week is the Australian National University’s Australian Election Study survey, both as a summary report and a full dataset for those with the wherewithal to use it. Among many other things, the survey found that Anthony Albanese scored better when rated on a scale from one to ten than any party leader since Kevin Rudd in 2007, whereas Scott Morrison was “the least popular major party leader in the history of the AES”, which goes back to 1987. A decline in partisan attachment going back to 2010 continued apace, with only 30% and 28% now rating themselves as Coalition and Labor partisans respectively. Supporters of the teal independents were largely “tactical Labor and Greens voters”, with only 18% of their voters having defected from the Liberals. The survey also provides further evidence for what already well understood about the Coalition’s problems with women and younger voters.
Note also the post below from Adrian Beaumont about today’s US Senate run-off election in the state of Georgia, and the ongoing coverage of the Victorian election count, where Labor seems set to match its 2018 performance in terms of lower house seats.
Hi C@T
I have a neighbour who consumes both legal and illegal cannabis (he has a couple of co morbidities including type 2 diabetes and high blood pressure), is that problematic? We’re quite worried about him.
Crossing fingers for Mbappe.
goll says:
Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 9:52 pm
Snappy Tom
“Did Morrison actually claim that Cook circumnavigated Australia?”
Morrison circumnavigated the Federal political landscape between 24/8/2018 until 23/5/2022, at such time his boat sunk disastrously, many of his crew didn’t survive, his boat was found to be ridden with barnacle damage and his true course unknown even to himself.
An embarrassing end to the liberal party, democracy in Australia, political transparency, and his reputation.
The git remains in parliament, lacking any self-awareness and prolonging the possibility of any renaissance in the coalition fortunes.
Any future liberal parliamentary liberal leader will need to exile Morrison upon gaining the leadership.
Dutton has failed his first test.
____________
I’m glad we’ve found at least one “test” for the Libs/Dutton. When will we see mainstream media articles about this?
nath @ #1412 Sunday, December 11th, 2022 – 7:35 am
Well then, he’s wrong to take that position. As America has proven, the people who are prone to adverse mental health outcomes wrt cannabis use, and I’ve seen them, need to be dealt with via the Health system. Just like alcohol is when there’s a problem. Everyone else can just get on with safe, social or medicinal consumption.
It’s time has come. We have just had our first local Medicinal Cannabis surgery open and I was surprised to see a woman my age in there the other day waiting to be seen by the doctor. She was no superannuated hippie either.
Politicians just need to get on with it. Change the road rules to accommodate it. Just do it. But do it right.
Ok Steve777. Yes, in international air services agreements they are not the sole carrier. In the sense of the commoner on the street they are the national carrier. They style themselves that way. In the political sphere they are also often commented on as the national carrier. Thanks for the pickup Steve.
A least it wasn’t a black player who missed…. after the Euro shootout that brought out the racists.
Worth remembering how well Kane stood up for them.
Man, all this whining is getting too much. Sure, the ref was a bit off. But this is juvenile.
And you wait till 96th minute to bring on Grealish?
‘Confessions says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 6:59 am
Thanks BK. All the end-of-days commentary about the Andrews government amounted to nothing. And the Tasmanian government is the only coalition government to be re-elected since Covid hit our shores.’
====================================================
It shifted around 5% of the vote from Labor. 200,000 Victorian voters switched their primary vote. The fragmentation was papered over by first past the post and preferential voting into a status quo 2PP. The fragmentation on the left continues with Animal Justice and Legalize Cannabis skiving off some otherwise-Greens voters.
I was in two minds about the second penalty as to whether it should have been given Simon.
I would be happy for marihuana to be legalized provided regular users agree to go last in the waiting list for access to already over-stretched mental health services.
If Labor is still dominant in the polls as the next election approaches, we’ll see a mass exodus of the remains of the Morrison ministry. In the face of an active NACC, a few might in any case develop a desire to spend more time with their families.
The only bad thing about Morrison & Robert leaving parliament early is their seats are on relatively large margins (in Roberts’ case, 60/40).
WORLD CUP SEMI-FINALS:
Argentina vs Croatia
France vs Morocco
Andrews has already quashed an inquiry that was set to recommend legalisation in Victoria.
The SDA is not going to let people just get high when they want to.
Why would NACC bother them Steve777? I haven’t read the legislation but can they no longer investigate you if you are not a current public official?
Having lost the SSM debate, and losing the Euthanasia debate, the SDA will be making a stand on drug reform. It’s all they really have left.
Suffering brings you closer to Christ. So suffer without recreational drugs.
Cronus @ #1419 Sunday, December 11th, 2022 – 7:44 am
The problems with consumption are mainly wrt Dissociative Personality Disorder, Schizophrenia and it appears to induce psychosis.
Diabetes may be a problem with the munchies. 😉
Your neighbour would no doubt be under strict medical supervision wrt his Medicinal Cannabis consumption and it wouldn’t have been prescribed for him considering his co-morbidities if his doctor(s) didn’t think it safe to do so.
I agree about Mbappe too. He was well contained by England though.
France V Morocco, eh? Should be a blast. 🙂
#weatheronPB
The patient day waits,
ready to go with blue sky
and a few big clouds.
“Holdenhillbilly says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 8:04 am
WORLD CUP SEMI-FINALS:
Argentina vs Croatia
France vs Morocco”
A Croatia vs Morocco final would be truly historical and revitalising for international football… In addition, this much maligned Qatar World Cup would be remembered for the correct reasons…
But I am afraid that it’s more likely going to be France vs Argentina.
I would be happy for marihuana to be legalized provided regular users agree to go last in the waiting list for access to already over-stretched mental health services.
———————————
Can we do similar with fatty fast food and sugar drinks?
I am in two minds with it. It probably isn’t so clear cut to be a priority fix – there are more important fish.
On the other hand. If you legalise it and tax it like cigarettes – will it pay for all the mental illness it causes and then some?
The notion that, from the Ukrainian perspective, Bakhmut is about Russia wasting ammunition is not one that I feel comfortable with. Those shells are killing a lot of soldiers.
I have previously referred to meat grinder tactics in relation to Bakhmut:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/10/russia-ukraine-war-bakhmut-meat-grinder-deadlock
“nath says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 8:08 am
…Suffering brings you closer to Christ.”
Yes nath, but for the Liberals there won’t be any resurrection…
‘Simon Henny Penny Katich says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 8:11 am
I would be happy for marihuana to be legalized provided regular users agree to go last in the waiting list for access to already over-stretched mental health services.
———————————
Can we do similar with fatty fast food and sugar drinks?
….’
============================
Absolutely. I really don’t have an objection to personal choice of suicidal behaviours provided that the real-world consequences for innocent third parties are minimized.
Boerwar @ #1427 Sunday, December 11th, 2022 – 8:00 am
What if Consolidated Revenue keeps increasing at the rate it is now? Might be financial room for all.
France v Morocco?
Let’s hope it does not expose the fault lines in french society.
Boerwar @ #1438 Sunday, December 11th, 2022 – 8:11 am
Boerwar, Bakhmut is a fight of the Wagner Group and Russia’s choosing. Ukraine must defend itself.
The SDA aren’t the monolith in the ALP that nath would have you believe.
‘C@tmomma says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 8:14 am
Boerwar @ #1427 Sunday, December 11th, 2022 – 8:00 am
I would be happy for marihuana to be legalized provided regular users agree to go last in the waiting list for access to already over-stretched mental health services.
What if Consolidated Revenue keeps increasing at the rate it is now? Might be financial room for all.’
========================================
I am not all that happy with the thought that my taxes have to pay for increased mental health provision needed because of the inevitable population-based consequences of people self-indulging in recreational drug choices.
I would put alcohol on the top of that list, by the way.
I have no problems with medicinal marijuana but that is, IMO, a minuscule part of the issue which has been used as a trojan horse argument for those who want to legalize their preferred drug choice.
‘C@tmomma says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 8:15 am
Boerwar @ #1438 Sunday, December 11th, 2022 – 8:11 am
The notion that, from the Ukrainian perspective, Bakhmut is about Russia wasting ammunition is not one that I feel comfortable with. Those shells are killing a lot of soldiers.
I have previously referred to meat grinder tactics in relation to Bakhmut:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/10/russia-ukraine-war-bakhmut-meat-grinder-deadlock
Boerwar, Bakhmut is a fight of the Wagner Group and Russia’s choosing. Ukraine must defend itself.’
——————————————————–
Of course Ukraine must defend itself. That does not obviate my observations above.
“Boerwar says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 8:11 am”
From the link:
“In the ‘Bakhmut meat grinder’, deadlocked enemy forces slog it out
Ukrainians have the technical advantage but Russians persist in sacrificing troops to take an area with no strategic value”
Well, Putin will have to pay somehow for this senseless slaughter of young Russians (and of Ukrainians, young and old)….
Boerwar @ #1445 Sunday, December 11th, 2022 – 8:18 am
America tried to stop the tide and failed. And if you want to talk about miniscule, then that’s the number affected adversely wrt their Mental Health. And if you want to speak about Trojan Horses, then the Mental Health argument is the one that is relied upon by those who are trying to hold back the tide.
Not to mention that we have a universal health system. You pay your Medicare Levy, you gain access to it for whatever ailment you have. YOU don’t have the right to tell others what they can or cannot access the health system for. ‘YOUR’ taxes do not specifically pay for the Mental Health treatment of others.
As far as recreational use is concerned, if it’s legalisation turns one person away from a life of consuming alcohol in social situations, then it’s worth it. There have been zero One Punch Attacks from Cannabis, not to mention just about any other violent form of attack.
This is, IMO, a good summary of the state of play. Inter alia, it suggests that China is doing a bit of good cop, bad cop with their Australian ambassador setting up as good cop. This is especially so compared with his predecessor who had a bit of the unleashed wolf warrior edge. He was the one who ‘unofficially’ but officially gave legs to the 14 demands which Xi hags insist do not exist.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/dec/11/out-of-deep-freeze-just-how-real-is-the-thaw-in-australias-relationship-with-china
We can’t refuse care. What about all idiots in emergency late on Saturday night? It’s too hard to enforce fairly and we shouldn’t be asking doctors and hospitals to do it.
but we can try to make sure there is a cost transfer from the individual to society for behaviour that has a societal cost. marijuana use isn’t stopped by making it illegal – the cost transfer instead goes to growers and dealers and they are often bikie gangs.
So there you go. I have talked myself into it. Legalise and tax (still criminalise blackmarket). But it is a legitimate and defendable policy to keep it illegal.
C@t
I am not interested in america or the tide.
What I would like to see is that people who court mental illness through sustained use of the recreational drugs of their choice, and I mean choice, do not take the places of people who are struggling NOW to get proper access to mental health resources.
The notion is that personal choices should not get a free kick when it comes to the social costs.
And yes, I believe that governments right now should be mandating mask wear.
‘Simon Henny Penny Katich says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 8:31 am
We can’t refuse care….’
===================
When hospitals have waiting lists of thousands for elective surgery for children, we are refusing care. When there is a queue for home help for the aged, we are refusing care. When mental health sufferers can’t get treatment, we are refusing care.[
We refuse care ALL THE TIME.
Individuals adding to the queue by choosing to indulge in sustained recreational drug use WHEN IT IS KNOWN THAT that will add to population health needs is a choice. The consequences should be to the individual. Not to society members who are already in queues.
This morning I happened upon something absolutely precious to my family. It is from British Movietone News from 1961 and is film of my long departed dad bowling his leggies to Garfield Sobers in the nets behind the Adelaide Oval stands.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqAK1Y4B3VA
Thanks for the post Boerwar. I found this quote in the article sobering.
Increasing the number of access locations for the US, even if they are not full bases, can create a “more complicated targeting matrix for China in the event of a conflict”, Corben says.
Terrible to see that we are being actively encouraged to become targets to assist the US and simply used as a pawn in a potential war against China that we have absolutely no interest in being involved with.
Anyway, hopefully nothing ever comes of it and our wine and lobster producers can get back to selling wine and lobster and we can all grow gloriously rich as the relationship flourishes.
If their is increased tax revenue due to the recreational drug use then would it not be fair to use this revenue to add resources to the healthcare system?
How many penalties not finishing up in the back of the net in this tournament?
But, back to the real world
Media make a meal out of “mortgage servicing debt”, an absolute meal
But
Mortgage debt servicing INCLUDES paying the interest rate charged by the lender in the loan
The loan is repayable over 25/30 years, so you have no home mortgage debt upon retirement from the workforce
The repayment is of both interest AND principal
The contributor never mentioned by a disgraceful media chasing a headline never mentions this
What this brings into focus is that THE contributor is the amount the home purchaser has requested that the bank lend them, AND the bank has then approved
It is the borrower who has requested the loan from the lender (and, yes, the lender has approved the loan, which is not always a given!
The contributor to the much publicised “mortgage servicing debt” is the size of the loan, the size of the loan requested by the borrower and lent by the lender
If you can not afford to service the loan, sell and ask to borrow what you can afford
Yes there are costs to such a decision – including Agent’s fees, Stamp Duty on Transfer, loan approval fees, registration fees and removal costs
But at the end of the day the driver is what you can afford to service on a principal plus interest basis over 25/30 years
And it beats the cost of a Mortgagee Auction which includes legal costs and penalty interest rates with other penalties
So back to penalties
Steve777 @ 7.13am
Absolutely.
My wife and I have avoided QANTAS for years, long before the privatisation was affected.
Our worst flying nightmare is an Etihad/QANTAS code share – and the Q part is the one scheduled for a flight, especially for that long return sector from the UAE.
One part of the flight provides comfort & service, the other is QANTAS.
Many Australians have been totally conned by the advertising and the pathetic pulling of the psuedo-patriotism strings which suggests that only a true Aussie would fly with the red-tailed kangaroo.
Wow BK – I’d be putting that straight into the pool room if it was me. Thanks for sharing.
Boerwar @ Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 8:11 am:
“The notion that, from the Ukrainian perspective, Bakhmut is about Russia wasting ammunition is not one that I feel comfortable with. Those shells are killing a lot of soldiers.
I have previously referred to meat grinder tactics in relation to Bakhmut:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/10/russia-ukraine-war-bakhmut-meat-grinder-deadlock”
========================================
Boerwar, me either. At what point does Moscow provide a “goodwill gesture” and simply effect a unilateral ceasefire, at least around Bakhmut? Their own troops there sure as hell could use it. Of course, it would then become apparent to even the most “zombified” Russian patriot that their own country’s best interest from this point would be to take the next logical step, and pull out completely from all Ukrainian territory and adopt that peaceful posture from behind their own legitimate nationl borders, and Putin’s sense of his own historical importance won’t allow that.
As per article linked by BK re situation im victorian hospitals. As I have been banging on about, Albo and co need to reform the medicare system pronto.
—-
“Access to general practitioners is a federal issue. Medicare is a federal issue. These systems are broken,” Thomas said, adding that the state government had tried to ease some of these problems with a number of measures, including establishing 25 urgent care centres.
Judkins said the emergency department crisis was caused by multiple things, but agreed that the “decimation” and “neglect” of general practice over the last 15 years had led to this critical point.
Boerwar @ #1484 Sunday, December 11th, 2022 – 8:34 am
So you want to ban treatment for alcohol, Ice, Ketamine, and Heroin use and abuse too!?!
Somehow I think you have your priorities wrong in a very major way there. Nevertheless, demography is destiny. You are an old man and you will not be around when the Millennials and Gen Z take the reigns.
Hasn’t cannabis use for recreational purposes already been decriminalised in the ACT? Have you moved because you object to that? Have you stopped paying any fees and charges that go to the ACT government because they have done that? Has the sky fallen in over the ACT because of it? Not that I’ve seen.
You just have to look at India to see that thousands of years of evidence have shown a society far from collapse. And again, alcohol causes far more problems for society, especially among the Indigenous people you love so much. Wouldn’t you want them to be able to put the scourge of alcohol consumption behind them? Well, there’s a safe way for them to do that. If you don’t, then that’s all on you and your unfounded prejudices.
BK
Wow. That is indeed precious. Your dad was a very stylish young man!
MaccaRB,
Go Air NZ, Cathy Pacific or Singapore Airlines. Don’t go QANTAS.
Spence
Spot on!
Snappy Tom @ 7.47
“I’m glad we’ve found at least one “test” for the Libs/Dutton. When will we see mainstream media articles about this?”
The MSM, established on the platform of the sunset tree media will probably cease to exist in the tree form before 2030.
The Liberal Party, as once was, has ceased to exist since Howard achieved his fourth term.
The Liberal Party with the present “types” representing it in parliament, will not get ” a look in” before 2030.
The Liberal Party discriminate against 51% of the population as an unstated key tenet of their existence.
The Liberal Party need to elect a female federal leader and only then will we see a renaissance of some sort. ( plus some other stuff)
Australia has been lucky in enabling the Labor Party a chance to expunge the remnant neo-liberal failed economics of Howard and others.
Australia has been lucky in having Albanese as leader to enable the establishment of some long overdue social changes and their implementation.
The MSM has been “hit for six” by technology, propped up by aging monied neanderthals and their “denialist” drooling.
The liberals together with the MSM are in denial. Just how many “drubbings” must the liberals endue before the overpaid MSM experts spruik what Australia want from their ” Liberal ” politicians.
The “Liberals” are still driving “a horse and buggy ” and won’t be given a chance while feeding the horses with “crook” feed.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK.
It is not only the Victorian medical system that is hanging on by a thread. SA too, has suffered from loss of many staff from necessary covid quarantines, leaving the remainder overworked. There is a huge backlog of elective surgery, which these days includes everything that is not immediately life-threatening.
With respect to Malinauskas, more ambos does NOT solve this problem. Ramping is a symptom. The cure is more nursing staff, and either more doctors or more money to get elective surgery done by private doctors and/or in private hospitals.
Catprog @ #1487 Sunday, December 11th, 2022 – 8:39 am
Again, there should be no specific directions of monies into Consolidated Revenue except that put forward in the Budget and passed by the parliament, but the principle is valid. 🙂
Now AFL draw is out you can put me down for 21st May.
Lunch in town, then hop on train to GWS match at 16.40 at Homebush.
Perfect.