The latest Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald has Labor on 42% (up three since the poll conducted after the budget in late October), the Coalition on 30% (down two), the Greens on 11% (down two), One Nation on 4% (steady), the United Australia Party on 2% (up one) and independents on 8% (steady). No two-party preferred is provided, but based on preference flows in May this would have Labor’s lead approaching 60-40. The limited state breakdowns provided have it at about 57-43 in New South Wales, 62-38 in Victoria and 56-44 in Queensland.
Anthony Albanese records an approval rating of 60% (up three) with disapproval at 24% (down four), while Peter Dutton is respectively at 28% (down one) and 43% (up two). Albanese leads Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister 54-19, little changed from 53-19 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1611. Further results on the poll concerning the parties’ capacity to handle various issues and other aspects of their performance are featured on the Age/Herald’s Resolve Political Monitor page.
Also out this week is the Australian National University’s Australian Election Study survey, both as a summary report and a full dataset for those with the wherewithal to use it. Among many other things, the survey found that Anthony Albanese scored better when rated on a scale from one to ten than any party leader since Kevin Rudd in 2007, whereas Scott Morrison was “the least popular major party leader in the history of the AES”, which goes back to 1987. A decline in partisan attachment going back to 2010 continued apace, with only 30% and 28% now rating themselves as Coalition and Labor partisans respectively. Supporters of the teal independents were largely “tactical Labor and Greens voters”, with only 18% of their voters having defected from the Liberals. The survey also provides further evidence for what already well understood about the Coalition’s problems with women and younger voters.
Note also the post below from Adrian Beaumont about today’s US Senate run-off election in the state of Georgia, and the ongoing coverage of the Victorian election count, where Labor seems set to match its 2018 performance in terms of lower house seats.
Bob Lynch @ #1408 Sunday, December 11th, 2022 – 9:14 am
Fantastic!
Very amusing. Mara lago lego. Too funny
https://twitter.com/JimmyKimmelLive/status/1601052645103259649?t=gaO6QW38Nn01kj6ugdA0Ow&s=19
Ha. That’s great BK.
BK,
Your dad had a certain style about him. I loved the bare chest look. 🙂
Socrates
Every state and territory is struggling. Another covid surge has not helped. But there are systemic issues that need reforming.
The bean counters in Canberra arent going to help. Its up to Albo, the ministers and state counterparts to enact reform of the system from the top down.
Apart from attempting to sort out the energy sector, the health system should be a priority for the federal govt.
I agree with the conclusion of the Guardian article on Russia’s cynical “met grinder” tactics around Bakhmut:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/10/russia-ukraine-war-bakhmut-meat-grinder-deadlock
““The war will only really be over when Russia disintegrates into its constituent republics. It doesn’t matter if it is Putin or someone else from the opposition – the threat will always be the same.”
“Москва повинна бути зруйнована.”
“Тегеран має бути знищений.”
I thought England played well vs France, but the result was fair enough. The second penalty looked generous but the denied earlier one looked legitimate, so it balanced out.
France vs Morocco will be interesting! France are the better team, but Morocco have been playing a very well organised packed defense, with a fast counterattack. They won’t give Mbappe any space.
The full weekends worth of UK cartoons:
Victoria
Agreed. I don’t see any way around putting more money into health to fix the problem. The system needs more people with covid, and more people costs more money.
BKsays:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 8:38 am
Brilliant BK.
There was one ball where I think he might have slipped in wrong un and Sobers got a big leading edge. 🙂
The military analysis of the strategic futility of Moscow’s sacrifice of an already-sparsely-numbered generation of young Russia men in the Bakhmut “meat grinder”, from that Guardian article:
theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/10/russia-ukraine-war-bakhmut-meat-grinder-deadlock
“A widespread assessment that Russian forces have until mid-December before the onset of full winter conditions forces a slowing of their efforts has supplied one motive for the sense of urgency, even if many are baffled by the focus of Russian assaults.
Even if the Russians could take Bakhmut, beyond is less easy terrain spread across a vast hinterland of wooded hills and rivers and decaying post-industrial towns.
“We are scratching our heads,” a western official told AFP earlier this week when asked about Russia’s focus on Bakhmut. “We don’t know the answer.”
A recent assessment for the Institute for the Study of War was even more damning. “Even if Russian troops continue to advance toward and within Bakhmut, and even if they force a controlled Ukrainian withdrawal from the city, Bakhmut itself offers them little operational benefit.
“The costs associated with six months of brutal, grinding, and attrition-based combat around Bakhmut far outweigh any operational advantage that the Russians can obtain from taking Bakhmut.””
======================================
This looks more like WW1 wastefulness than WW2 heroism from the Russians.
“Москва повинна бути зруйнована.”
“Тегеран має бути знищений.”
Am I alone in thinking that the load on the health system (and especially the mental health system) could be massively reduced by making permanent the measures that were used in the early part of the pandemic to effectively eliminate poverty.
Without discounting the many serious health setbacks that people encounter purely by bad luck or (unforced) bad choices, a huge number of health problems are caused by the inability of people to cope financially, which can lead to delays in heath treatment or not taking preventive health measures, as well as directly impacting those prone to mental health issues.
Talk about completely un-self-aware irony from Wagner head Prigozhin:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/10/russia-ukraine-war-bakhmut-meat-grinder-deadlock
“Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Russia’s Wagner group, has said his troops have primarily centred their efforts on demolishing the Ukrainian army there.
“Our task is not Bakhmut itself, but the destruction of the Ukrainian army and the reduction of its combat potential, which has an extremely positive effect on other areas, which is why this operation was dubbed the ‘Bakhmut meat grinder’.”
======================================
Who is losing more troops there??
“Москва повинна бути зруйнована.”
“Тегеран має бути знищений.”
I saw Sobers bat once, well after his prime, in a charity match at Adelaide Oval.
He started batting normally, but after a couple of singles he quickly realised his conditioning wasn’t quite there.
What followed was an amazing display of boundaries. No slogging, just beautiful, powerful cricket shots.
It was a privilege to witness, tinged with the regret of not seeing him in his prime.
Time for a refresher on the betrayal of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which Ukraine agreed to relinquish its nuclear weapons arsenal and sign the NPT, in return for guarantees from the US, UK and Russia to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity:
https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-what-is-the-budapest-memorandum-and-why-has-russias-invasion-torn-it-up-178184:
“The unfolding invasion of Ukraine will have far-reaching repercussions that extend way beyond a breach of international law and a violation of the country’s territorial integrity. As American international relations expert David Yost notes, Russia’s actions will weaken the credibility of major power security assurances, undermine the nuclear nonproliferation regime and dampen prospects for future disarmament.
Putin’s decision to invade is in direct violation of the Budapest Memorandum, a key instrument assuring Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The memorandum was struck in 1994, following lengthy and complicated negotiations involving the then Russian president Boris Yeltsin, Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma, US president Bill Clinton and the then British prime minister John Major.
Under the terms of the memorandum, Ukraine agreed to relinquish its nuclear arsenal – the world’s third-largest, inherited from the collapsed Soviet Union – and transfer all nuclear warheads to Russia for decommissioning. This enabled Ukraine to join the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) as a non-nuclear state.
https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-what-is-the-budapest-memorandum-and-why-has-russias-invasion-torn-it-up-178184 continues:
“The NPT is a legally-binding instrument that recognises only five countries as legitimate holders of nuclear weapons: China, France, Russia, the UK and the US. All other countries are banned from developing a nuclear arsenal and those that have, including India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea, are not parties to the NPT.
In exchange for giving up its nuclear arsenal, Ukraine initially sought legally binding guarantees from the US that it would intervene should Ukraine’s sovereignty be breached. But when it became clear that the US was not willing to go that far, Ukraine agreed to somewhat weaker – but nevertheless significant – politically binding security assurances to respect its independence and sovereignty which guaranteed its existing borders. China and France subsequently extended similar assurances to Ukraine, but did not sign the Budapest Memorandum.
The Budapest Memorandum consists of a series of political assurances whereby the signatory states commit to “respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine”. But the meaning of the security assurances was deliberately left ambiguous. According to a former US diplomat who participated in the talks, Steven Pifer, it was understood that if there was a violation, there would be a response incumbent on the US and the UK. And while that response was not explicitly defined, Pifer notes that: “there is an obligation on the United States that flows from the Budapest Memorandum to provide assistance to Ukraine, and […] that would include lethal military assistance”.
https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-what-is-the-budapest-memorandum-and-why-has-russias-invasion-torn-it-up-178184 continues:
“Russia first broke its commitments under the Budapest Memorandum in 2014, with its annexation of Crimea and aggression in eastern Ukraine. The international response at the time was lacklustre – although the US and the UK did subsequently step up their efforts to strengthen Ukraine’s armed forces through training and provision of lethal defensive arms. At the time, a committee of the UK House of Lords noted that:
As one of the four signatories of the Budapest Memorandum (1994), which pledged to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the UK had a particular responsibility when the crisis erupted. The government has not been as active or as visible on this issue as it could have been.”
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 8:09 am
Cronus @ #1419 Sunday, December 11th, 2022 – 7:44 am
Hi C@T
I have a neighbour who consumes both legal and illegal cannabis (he has a couple of co morbidities including type 2 diabetes and high blood pressure), is that problematic? We’re quite worried about him.
Crossing fingers for Mbappe.
The problems with consumption are mainly wrt Dissociative Personality Disorder, Schizophrenia and it appears to induce psychosis.
Diabetes may be a problem with the munchies.
Your neighbour would no doubt be under strict medical supervision wrt his Medicinal Cannabis consumption and it wouldn’t have been prescribed for him considering his co-morbidities if his doctor(s) didn’t think it safe to do so.
I agree about Mbappe too. He was well contained by England though.
France V Morocco, eh? Should be a blast.
——————————————————————————————-
Thanks C@T
It’s difficult to talk to and advise a person who has had a lifetime of illicit cannabis use and heavy drinking and left his diagnosed diabetes essentially untreated until recently. In his mid 60s, he’s now seriously struggling, taking every medication under the sun but deteriorating nonetheless. I suspect his mental health issues though are going untreated. I guess we’ll just continue friendship mixed with encouragement to seek all the medical help possible.
On the soccer, often when a team focuses heavily on one player then they leave the gate open for slightly lesser lights to shine. Actually getting involved now and looking forward to the final three games.
Mofo. The just completed Australia Schools volleyball tournament major sponsor was – guess who?
Hancock Prospecting.
Not sure how much they donate to the cause because it isn’t cheap to participate.
And they will again hold it in the Good Coast next year. Sheesh. Cant some Victorian company with a more ethical and sustainable product/service front up the cash and hold it in Melbourne?
The Victorian Government should follow the lead of ACT Labor and legalise cannabis for recreational use. Create a legal retail market like in Canada and let folks grow a couple of plants for personal use. This should be a no brainer now for Labor imo.
Looks like Clarrie Grimmett
4 games.
The dreaded 3/4 play off
Thanks BK and Alpha Zero!
Of course, Hancock Prospecting. Sportswashing buys closed mouths for very little by way of outlays for Gina.
Volleyball Australia should find an Indigenous player to be their avatar in the fight back. Then contact Mike Cannon-Brookes. 🙂
“Serious violation
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine today is an even more serious violation and effectively buries Russia’s assurances in the Budapest Memorandum. Not only that, but Putin’s recent order to put Russia’s nuclear deterrence forces “on high alert” is a further repudiation of Russia’s assurances towards Ukraine, as it raises the spectre – no matter how distant – of a nuclear war.
The US and UK responses in the face of Russia’s recent aggression have been limited. Both countries offered Ukraine financing, military equipment and training and have applied increasingly strict sanctions on Russia. But they have ruled out any direct intervention, such as imposing no-fly zones over Ukraine, for fear of being dragged into a war with Russia. While this limited response fulfils the letter of the US and UK’s commitments under the Budapest Memorandum, the impression that emerges is very much that Ukraine was left on its own to fight an unlawful, nuclear-capable aggressor.
It is unsurprising, perhaps, that some Ukrainian leaders and the public feel betrayed and consider that the security assurances they received in the Budapest Memorandum are not worth the paper they were written on.
This may have far-reaching consequences for the future of nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. Other states in Russia’s neighbourhood – and in the wider world – may begin to question whether such assurances are sufficiently reliable to ensure their long-term security. This may, in turn, undermine the credibility of major power security assurances, previously used as bargaining chips to dissuade countries such as Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine from possessing nuclear weapons.
This experience may also change the rhetoric around nuclear nonproliferation that, at present, casts states seeking nuclear weapons as “international pariahs”. In light of Ukraine’s experience, the pursuance of nuclear weapons to safeguard one’s sovereignty and independence may be seen as more legitimate.
The image of Ukraine being invaded by Russia despite its security assurances and being left largely to fend for itself in this conflict may trigger a resurgent interest in nuclear weapons. Some evidence of this has already begun to emerge, for instance in Japan, where the former prime minister Shinzo Abe argued that “Japan should break a longstanding taboo and hold an active debate on nuclear weapons – including a possible ‘nuclear-sharing’ programme.”
Such a development would be dangerous not only because it serves to weaken the nuclear nonproliferation regime, but it could also lead to increased chances of an avoidable nuclear war.”
“The image of Ukraine being invaded by Russia despite its security assurances and being left largely to fend for itself in this conflict…”
Among other things, this feeds Putin’s narrative of “the West using Ukraine as cannon fodder to weaken Russia”. The West needs to take its own guarantees to other nations more seriously.
China spraying chemicals on China
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tIoGyrvsfU&ab_channel=%D0%9D%D0%9D-%D0%9D%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE
Reminds me of the actions of another dictator.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojOmUWLDG18&ab_channel=CNAInsider
God knows what it will all lead to this time.
BK, your dad is up there with the guy in this clip!
https://youtu.be/CjC-f3dGR94
There are some in the West who won’t even forgo a night out enjoying and applauding Tchaikovsky, let alone act seriously in support of their own guarantees to uphold Ukraine’s integrity in the cause of nuclear non-proliferation, and they wonder why Ukrainians can feel somewhat abandoned by the West…
ajm @ Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 9:34 am
You are not alone.
As a society, w need to better target the social determinants of health – we cannot even do masks in an aerosolised epidemic, let alone address sugar, fat, exercise, social isolation, secure housing, adequate welfare etc. Neoliberalism has a lot to answer for.
But why stop there?
2. fix the turf wars in primary care. We have dismantled a lot of the public mechanisms in primary care and now rely on a declining GP workforce that has become increasingly corporatised. As GP training shifted from being a simple internship and residency to a specialty, coupled with the opening of other speciality training positions, we see a far lower proportion of medical graduates become GPs. Let pharmacists prescribe. Boost nurse practitioner numbers. It is a question of access, not expertise.
3. start a serious conversation of streaming acute care. Add in more mental health liaison teams into hospital A&Es.
4. large scale investment in rehabilitation services. Don’t treat mental and physical rehabilitation as seperate. Trial integrated rehabilitation. Separation perpetuates the problem.
Oh and don’t get me started on private health care!
p.s. bring back the CES, just for nath 😉
Boerwar says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 8:11 am
The notion that, from the Ukrainian perspective, Bakhmut is about Russia wasting ammunition is not one that I feel comfortable with. Those shells are killing a lot of soldiers.
I have previously referred to meat grinder tactics in relation to Bakhmut:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/10/russia-ukraine-war-bakhmut-meat-grinder-deadlock
——————————————————————————————-
In its current state, the defence of Bakhmut by Ukraine makes sense, it’s their land, the Russians are on it and they have a responsibility to fight for it. The case for Russia’s continued attacks and losses however, makes much less sense given that Bakhmut seems to be of limited strategic or historic value. To be wasting the Wagner Group on this ground seems even more difficult to justify.
simm0888says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 10:01 am
This has long been the approach, 20+ years, in SA.
Whilst it remains a prohibited drug in Australia this is the best any State or Territory can do.
The problem with it is it doesn’t deal with the criminal element which controls most of the production and distribution.
Any advance on this position would require a change at federal level.
Macarthur @ Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 10:14 am
You do realise that you are being quite educational? I am learning a lot about Russian music currently on offer. Could you identify Russian painters in our galleries next please.
aka the Streisand effect.
An individual tragedy as Putin sends a public message to anyone who might question.
Mikhail Khodorkovsky (English) @mbk_center
Grigory Kochenov (41) creative director of IT company Agima, died in Nizhny Novgorod.
As per local media and Telegram channels, he fell from the balcony when police raided his flat.
UX designer Ignat Goldman tweeted that the deceased had publicly opposed the war in Ukraine.
From https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-zelenskyy-says-russians-destroyed-bakhmut/a-64055819
“Russian forces have been targeting civilian infrastructure in recent weeks as winter temperatures in Ukraine fall to below freezing.
The Kremlin has justified such attacks by pointing to the destruction of the bridge that connected mainland Russia with the illegally occupied Ukrainian territory of Crimea at the beginning of October.”
====================================
1. Russia illegally seizes Crimea from Ukraine, despite having taken their arsenal of 1,900 nuclear warheads off them in return for promising to respect its sovereignty and territorial integrity;
2. Russia builds a bridge between its territory and Crimea, both to better secure its illegal occupation of it and also as a stark, intentionally provocative symbol of its disrespect for Ukraine;
3. Russia commits an even more horrendous violation of its guarantee to Ukraine with its full-scale invasion;
4. Ukraine attempts to disrupt this outrageous attack upon its own people and territory by blowing up a ground line of communication between Russia proper and its illegal holdings in Crimea;
5, Russia uses Ukraine’s legitimate act of self-defence as a pretext to launches hundreds of missile and drone strikes against supplies of essential resource – power and water – to Ukraine’s civilian population.
Fuck Russia. Fuck Tchaikovsky.
How pathetic if anyone here gets more animated about this slight to a long-dead Russian composer than they do to anything else I listed in this post.
“Москва повинна бути зруйнована.”
“Тегеран має бути знищений.”
Macarthur says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 10:14 am
There are some in the West who won’t even forgo a night out enjoying and applauding Tchaikovsky, let alone act seriously in support of their own guarantees to uphold Ukraine’s integrity in the cause of nuclear non-proliferation, and they wonder why Ukrainians can feel somewhat abandoned by the West…
As the “Wests” shipment of arms is increasing I fail to understand this “abandoned” talk.
Australia is still shipping bushmasters and more. Germany is about to start shipping tanks. The USA is still shipping anything not bolted down.
There are now only two possible outcomes, the collapse of Russia or the collapse of the Human race; you can’t criticize the west for trying for the former.
Great night at the G. Melbourne is alive and happy.
Griffsays:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 10:25 am
Macarthur @ Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 10:14 am
You do realise that you are being quite educational? I am learning a lot about Russian music currently on offer. Could you identify Russian painters in our galleries next please.
aka the Streisand effect.
===========================
You do realise that going out of your way to consume Russian culture merely to poke fun at another poster’s issue, even though a people under invasion is asking you to refrain from doing do, says more about you than it does about me?
frednk
“ Germany is about to start shipping tanks. ”
—————
Hasn’t Germany always been ABOUT to ship tanks? 🙂
Griffsays:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 10:25 am
😆
I personally have no problem avoiding Russian composers, as I have almost zero interest in classical music. 🙂
Rex Douglas
Last saturday i was at the guns and roses concert.
It too was a great night in the city.
simm0888 @ #1520 Sunday, December 11th, 2022 – 10:01 am
I hope Labor works with the upper house lefties.
Labor holds 44 seats with a 2PP share 56%+.
4 yrs of productive and co-operative work and they can’t lose in 2026.
Macarthur @ Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 10:31 am
Actually the only consumption of Russian culture that I am aware of over the past couple of weeks are your posts. You are driving the bus here. Educate yourself on the Streisand effect.
Victoria @ #1541 Sunday, December 11th, 2022 – 10:34 am
Weather has been kind. 🙂
Bakhmut is easy to understand if you look at it politically and ask what comes after Putin. Yevgeny Viktorovich must take Bakhmut if he is to have a seat at the table.
frednk @ Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 10:29 am:
“There are now only two possible outcomes, the collapse of Russia or the collapse of the Human race; you can’t criticize the west for trying for the former.”
======================================
No. Russia will not use nukes first against the West unless the West does so against them first. Ukraine, maybe, but no further escalation than that. We in the ret of the world outside Ukraine are quite safe from Russian nuclear attack, as long as we don’t pull that trigger first ourselves. The contrary view is just what Putin wants us in the West to believe, so we will significantly pull our punches in our efforts to oust Russia from Ukraine.
The only two possible outcomes actually are: the collapse of Russia sooner and with less destruction of Ukraine and its people; or the collapse of Russia later and with more destruction of Ukraine and its people. It is the falsely-based fear you understandably raise which I think guides the West to choose the latter over the former. This won’t help Russia at all in the long run, but it is vastly more tragic for Ukraine in the meantime.
Merci France
I take no alcohol, nor any weed. Abstinence is good. Really good. At least, it is really good for me. I really particularly dislike weed. It has a profoundly depressing effect on me. Alcohol just makes me sick. I can’t tolerate alcohol at all.
These substances are toxins. Their use injures human health, in much the same way that tobacco use also injures human health. A whole lot of substances are dangerous. Is there going to be a laissez-faire approach to all of them? Tobacco and alcohol are industrial/commercial giants. I suppose they are like gaming in a sense. Very big money involved, a lot of personal and social harm involved as a result of their widespread popularity. The legal production and marketing of cannabis is going to add to the harmful output category in the national accounts.
Cannabis appears to have medicinal properties. So it should be possible to create medicinal supply in the same way that medicinal growing and use of opium poppies is carried out.
Legalising cannabis for general use? I’m with Dan.
Rakali says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 10:32 am
frednk
“ Germany is about to start shipping tanks. ”
—————
Hasn’t Germany always been ABOUT to ship tanks?
It’s been a long debate for sure.