The latest Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald has Labor on 42% (up three since the poll conducted after the budget in late October), the Coalition on 30% (down two), the Greens on 11% (down two), One Nation on 4% (steady), the United Australia Party on 2% (up one) and independents on 8% (steady). No two-party preferred is provided, but based on preference flows in May this would have Labor’s lead approaching 60-40. The limited state breakdowns provided have it at about 57-43 in New South Wales, 62-38 in Victoria and 56-44 in Queensland.
Anthony Albanese records an approval rating of 60% (up three) with disapproval at 24% (down four), while Peter Dutton is respectively at 28% (down one) and 43% (up two). Albanese leads Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister 54-19, little changed from 53-19 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1611. Further results on the poll concerning the parties’ capacity to handle various issues and other aspects of their performance are featured on the Age/Herald’s Resolve Political Monitor page.
Also out this week is the Australian National University’s Australian Election Study survey, both as a summary report and a full dataset for those with the wherewithal to use it. Among many other things, the survey found that Anthony Albanese scored better when rated on a scale from one to ten than any party leader since Kevin Rudd in 2007, whereas Scott Morrison was “the least popular major party leader in the history of the AES”, which goes back to 1987. A decline in partisan attachment going back to 2010 continued apace, with only 30% and 28% now rating themselves as Coalition and Labor partisans respectively. Supporters of the teal independents were largely “tactical Labor and Greens voters”, with only 18% of their voters having defected from the Liberals. The survey also provides further evidence for what already well understood about the Coalition’s problems with women and younger voters.
Note also the post below from Adrian Beaumont about today’s US Senate run-off election in the state of Georgia, and the ongoing coverage of the Victorian election count, where Labor seems set to match its 2018 performance in terms of lower house seats.
That is magnificent BK. Just wow.
frednk @ Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 10:29 am:
“As the “Wests” shipment of arms is increasing I fail to understand this “abandoned” talk.
Australia is still shipping bushmasters and more. Germany is about to start shipping tanks. The USA is still shipping anything not bolted down.”
======================================
frednk, you’re right there, I really shouldn’t be so anxious for increased efforts from the West that I dismiss the massive support given to Ukraine thus far, and (again, so far) to an ever-increasing degree. Good pick-up.
Griff @ Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 10:34 am
Macarthur @ Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 10:31 am:
“Actually the only consumption of Russian culture that I am aware of over the past couple of weeks are your posts. You are driving the bus here. Educate yourself on the Streisand effect.”
=====================================
My mistake for assuming nobody here is reading these posts in a bubble, and might actually have considered buying tickets to these performances. As for the Streisand effect, I do understand the perversity of human motivation, but like to think I am humble enough not to claim credit for it. 😉
BK, plenty of wrist in those leggies.
And how smoothe and free-flowing was Sobers.
As Tony Greig used to say – moooorvellous ..!
Macarthur @ Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 10:44 am
It is difficult to advocate via censorship.
How about promoting Ukrainian cultural activities instead 😉
UK Labour electoral manifesto for 1910. Only 122 years ago.
“The great question you are to decide is whether the PEERS or the PEOPLE are to rule this Country. …….. THE LORDS MUST GO”
It was when Keir Hardie MP was Chairmen.
Rex douglas
Yes the last two saturday nights, the weather has been lovely
“Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address on Friday that large swathes of the eastern Donbas region had been significantly damaged by Russian shelling.
“The front-line situation remains very difficult in the key areas of Donbas — Bakhmut, Soledar, Maryinka, Kreminna … For a long time, there is no living place left on the land of these areas that have not been damaged by shells and fire,” Zelenskyy said.
“The occupiers actually destroyed Bakhmut, another Donbas city that the Russian army turned into burnt ruins,” he added.”
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-zelenskyy-says-russians-destroyed-bakhmut/a-64055819
=====================================
“We must burn this village in order to save it…”
“Москва повинна бути зруйнована.”
“Тегеран має бути знищений.”
😉
Macarthur says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 10:37 am
…
The only two possible outcomes actually are: the collapse of Russia sooner and with less destruction of Ukraine and its people; or the collapse of Russia later and with more destruction of Ukraine and its people. It is the falsely-based fear you understandably raise which I think guides the West to choose the latter over the former. This won’t help Russia at all in the long run, but it is vastly more tragic for Ukraine in the meantime.
Those that know, more than you or me, are being a little more cautious.
There has been two recent developments, the US have said they will no longer get stressed out if Ukraine blows up Russian military targets in Russia, and the US have told Germany, please send them tanks ( it generally being agreed the US tanks are to heavy and to hard to keep running).
As the Ballistic missile technologies used by Russia was developed in Ukraine I suspect the Russia’s shit no longer works. But what would I know.
The war between Russia and Ukraine will drag on for a long time.
It is in nearly everyone’s interest (obviously not Ukraine’s) that it does.
The “West” gets Russia to be weakened in almost every conceivable way, and eventually become less of a threat. They get proper field trials of weapons systems, are able to donate older stock to Ukraine as altruism, and replace their own with new.
China becomes the unquestioned second superpower.
Now it is not really in Russia interest (but it is in Putin’s) that it continues . So while Putin or his supporters control Russia it will go on.
The opinions of anyone else don’t really matter and are taken no notice of.
Very good idea, thank you. I can get too consumed with outrage sometimes. I’ll start with this – watching the film “Earth”:
From https://www.kyivpost.com/post/5462:
“American film director Martin Scorsese claimed Ukrainian Olexandr Dovzhenko to be one of the greatest directors in the history of cinematography while taking the stage at a charity concert dedicated to the 100th anniversary of the American premiere of Mykola Leontovych’s carol “Shchedryk,” also known as “Carol of the Bells.”
“These people also gave us a truly outstanding director in the history of cinema – Alexander Dovzhenko. His films are impressive. They are still amazing. He was born in Sosnytsya, and he had an incredible love for Ukraine, and you can feel it in every frame of his biggest films and, of course, the big film “Earth,” Scorsese said, calling on the audience to watch the movie.
Scorsese has also mentioned that persecution by the Soviet government tormented Dovzhenko.
“I mean, even the movies, overshadowed and compromised by interference and censorship, still have the moments where the real Dovzhenko is present. The Soviet Union and Stalin personally turned Dovzhenko’s life into hell, tearing him away from his homeland. They tried to kill his spirit, but they never succeeded because the spirit lives in his films and in his art forever,” said Scorsese.
Olexandr Dovzhenko was a Ukrainian Soviet screenwriter, film producer, and director. He is often cited as one of the most important early Soviet filmmakers. Dovzhenko’s “Earth” has been praised as one of the greatest silent movies ever made.”
I’m a failure as a consumer…no alcohol, no weed, no tobacco, no tv or newspapers, no gambling, no sport, no ocean cruising, no holidays in Bali or beyond, no religious observances, no life insurance, no holiday home, almost no theatre-going, practically never any movie-going, no gym, no health insurance…almost no spending on anything much at all. No spending. No savings either.
Heating, cooling, transport, vegetables and fish, the garden. Ice creams and train rides for my grand children. These are my regular outgoings, in addition to which I spend my modest disposables on art and education. Some classes, a few books, such art materials as I need.
I want nothing other than more time. And of course this is not available. I simply have to make better use of the time I have, just as I’ve made tight use of the small money I have. More time, better health, more art. These are my only requests.
”
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 7:39 am
France 2 : England 1
”
I am very happy with the result.
‘C@tmomma says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 9:03 am
Boerwar @ #1484 Sunday, December 11th, 2022 – 8:34 am
‘Simon Henny Penny Katich says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 8:31 am
We can’t refuse care….’
===================
When hospitals have waiting lists of thousands for elective surgery for children, we are refusing care. When there is a queue for home help for the aged, we are refusing care. When mental health sufferers can’t get treatment, we are refusing care.[
We refuse care ALL THE TIME.
Individuals adding to the queue by choosing to indulge in sustained recreational drug use WHEN IT IS KNOWN THAT that will add to population health needs is a choice. The consequences should be to the individual. Not to society members who are already in queues.
So you want to ban treatment for alcohol, Ice, Ketamine, and Heroin use and abuse too!?!’
————————————–
Straw man. I was quite clear. People who choose to add themselves to the already over-long queues for mental health treatment by choosing to use so-called recreational drugs should be sent to the back of the queue.
Boerwar says:
Straw man. I was quite clear. People who choose to add themselves to the already over-long queues for mental health treatment by choosing to use so-called recreational drugs should be sent to the back of the queue.
______
Stupid man. If they ever make it legal they will never make people wait for mental health care based upon their drug use.
”
Holdenhillbillysays:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 8:04 am
WORLD CUP SEMI-FINALS:
Argentina vs Croatia
France vs Morocco
”
I wish Morocco win the world cup. They defeated European soccer power houses Belgium, Spain and Portugal on the way to Semis.
Zwaktyld says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 10:54 am
The war between Russia and Ukraine will drag on for a long time.
It is in nearly everyone’s interest (obviously not Ukraine’s) that it does.
None of us can tell the future, but I don’t think so. Ukraine now has the bigger army, access to the larger stock of military hardware, the fighting attitude and spirit of the Cossacks and a serious desire to bring this to an end on their terms. If I had to put money on it, June next year. The consequences will take years to play out.
I’m of the opinion that most of the Boomers left are just the Fuddy Duddys.
Most of the fun ones have died off by now.
Boerwar parroting 1930s era reefer madness disinformation about cannabis. Something we would expect from Coalition politicians.
It is pleasant to have a Sunday morning on Pollbludger without reference to Insiders 🙂
‘Zwaktyld says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 10:54 am
The war between Russia and Ukraine will drag on for a long time.
It is in nearly everyone’s interest (obviously not Ukraine’s) that it does.
The “West” gets Russia to be weakened in almost every conceivable way, and eventually become less of a threat. They get proper field trials of weapons systems, are able to donate older stock to Ukraine as altruism, and replace their own with new.
China becomes the unquestioned second superpower.
….’
=====================================
Seriously?
1. Depletion of expensive munitions and equipment stocks that have to be replenished.
2. Serious supply chain disruptions.
3. Major disruption of world’s energy market.
4. Psychological impacts of the war on non-participants.
5. Global inflationary impact.
6. Economic and ideological tensions between allies made worse.
7. Disruption to move to global move to renewables.
8. Decrease in global grains commodity leading to increased grain commodity prices leading directly to increased global hunger.
‘simm0888 says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 11:20 am
Boerwar parroting 1930s era reefer madness disinformation about cannabis. Something we would expect from Coalition politicians.’
—————————
Uh huh. We all know that long term heavy cannabis use has zero impacts on mental health.
As you were. Feeling depressed are we?
My guesses. These have no predictive value. The known unknowns are so very large and various that it is best to take these guesses as being wild stabs in the dark:
1. The total war length for Putin’s War will be between five and ten years.
2. Putin will mostly likely die before the war ends.
3. The war will end in a negotiated settlement in which neither side gets everything it wants.
Boerwar your approach to public policy is basically if the Greens, Teals, Legalise Cannabis or any socially progressive or left of centre minor party supports something then Labor should outright oppose it or only support it with substantial caveats so rhat Labor can be seen as the sensible centrist option or something .
BK says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 8:38 am
This morning I happened upon something absolutely precious to my family. It is from British Movietone News from 1961 and is film of my long departed dad bowling his leggies to Garfield Sobers in the nets behind the Adelaide Oval stands.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqAK1Y4B3VA
——————————————————————————————
Outrageously impressive, consider me officially jealous.
Macarthur at 9.54 am
Please read the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, particularly article 6. The treaty recognizes nuclear power as legitimate but it stipulates that nuclear weapons should be abolished. The categorisation of states as “nuclear weapons states” in the NPT is nothing more than a statement of historical fact as at 1968. It is no legal endorsement of nuclear weapons for the five permanent Security Council members. Quite the contrary. Of course, the powerful like to distort the NPT’s meaning but they should not be indulged in distortion.
nath @ #1476 Sunday, December 11th, 2022 – 11:16 am
I’m still here. 🙂
simmo888
Stop trying to distort the discussion with psychobabble about why I hold my position. This has got zip to do with policy positions of any particular political party.
To repeat:
If individuals choose deliberately to add themselves to the mental health queues by engaging in recreational drug use known to cause mental illnesses they should be sent to the back of the mental health queues. The latter are already far too long. There are huge unmet demands ALREADY.
Individual choice should not lead to needless and unnecessary social costs.
But, where it does so, the relevant individuals should pay the price for their free choices. Not innocent individuals.
briefly being selective with the truth. ‘No alcohol’!?! I must have imagined the paeans to Gruppa.
the perotit wedge of cashlis gaming to triy and bring on the right wing suport has failed desbite him originaly coming from the right thenowel mccoy is angry he was was blocked from standing in carsilhill desbite the backing of perottits brother so he is threating tto start a teel movement of liberals with mathew camensuli exbelled from liberalsfor taking morrison to court leading the charge
Billy the Goat 1105
Don’t worry, be happy. I know that sounds cliched, but we have to make the most of what time we have left to us. And to me, fellow Grandfather, your life sounds pretty good .
Gandalf said these immortal words:
” All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”
“May it be”. Enya.
Boerwar @ #1486 Sunday, December 11th, 2022 – 11:37 am
And this is where you are being absolutely disingenuous in your outrageously zealous pursuit of your position. You’ve got your line and by gum, you’re sticking to it. However, you haven’t got the slightest clue what you’re talking about. No one who experiences a psychic break from the consumption of cannabis does it knowingly. They don’t know it will happen to them. Just like some women don’t know that they will get breast cancer. It’s in their genes who it will happen to.
And when it happens they need acute care. You can’t tell them to go to the back of any fcking queue!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/will-dan-andrews-smoke-a-peace-pipe-with-legalise-cannabis-in-the-upper-house-20221209-p5c54i.html
I think that constant education via advertising re safe use as well as adequate support for those who suffer ill-effects should be enough of a trade-off to regulated legalisation.
The war end sweep stake:
Zwaktyld = 5 years
Boerwar = 5 to 10 years
frednk = less than 8 months.
https://www.triplem.com.au/story/andrews-pledges-67-million-for-mental-health-hubs-if-re-elected-208669
The Vic Govt could increase this with revenue derived from legalising cannabis.
plus the termoil in the shooters party nsw with all its mps bar robert borsak calling on borsak to resign as party leader however borsak has the strong backing of the state egzecutive who are strolngly backing borsak against mps banasiak butler and dinarto thesplit betwen the upper house and lower mps emerged in the abortion debatte with banasiak andborsak strongly aposing abortion and the lower house mps suporting it so looks like a land slide to minns
Im feeling war ends before June 2023
frednk
“ Germany is about to start shipping tanks. ”
Serious question: do you have a source for that? Germany has slowly started sending Ukraine AFVs, especially the Gepard anti-aircraft vehicles recently. Some sources call these “anti-aircraft tanks”. They are a very effective radar guided anti-aircraft gun sitting on a tank chassis but they are definitely not tanks, and could not take on a modern tank in combat.
Germany is the largest producer of tanks in the EU. So far Germany had refused to send Ukraine their Leopard II main battle tanks and had even vetoed other European countries (notably Spain) doing the same with their spare Leopard IIs.
The most significant weapons Germany has sent to Ukraine are modern artillery and anti-aircraft systems. No tanks.
https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992
As recently as a week ago the answer on tanks was still “Nein”.
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3757653-germany-must-overcome-its-reluctance-to-send-heavy-armor-to-ukraine/
Germany is sending other countries Leopard IIs so they can send their old Soviet era tanks to Ukraine instead. But that is a poor second best. The Soviet era tanks will have no qualitative advantage over Russian forces, whereas the Leopard IIs would have a large advantage over them.
Victoria
Will US have Kevin McCarthy as HOR Speaker in the first vote of the House?
Griffsays:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 11:23 am
Well it was nice while it lasted! 😆
Bob Lynch says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 9:14 am
Now AFL draw is out you can put me down for 21st May.
Lunch in town, then hop on train to GWS match at 16.40 at Homebush.
Perfect.
中华人民共和国
Will be great to catch up Lynchy.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 11:38 am
briefly being selective with the truth. ‘No alcohol’!?! I must have imagined the paeans to Gruppa.
I should not have deviated from abstinence. Alcohol is not for me. Not a drop. These days a small glass will rot my guts for a week or more. The grappa made by my friend is sublime, but dangerous for me. I have foresworn it all.
For many years I scarcely ever partook and was the better for it. Mistakenly, I thought I might get away with some/just some. But I cannot. I am booze-free entirely. I’ve come to like the clarity of mind at all times.
Billy the Goat @ #1591 Sunday, December 11th, 2022 – 12:04 pm
Good for you briefly. I respect that.
I thought the evidence was that while cannabis didn’t cause mental illness, it could cause some existing or dormant mental condition to appear or intensify.
Barney in Cherating @ #1502 Sunday, December 11th, 2022 – 12:09 pm
As I stated earlier.
The proposition that the medically-afflicted should be divided into the deserving and the undeserving of treatment is really untenable at every level. This is a puritanical assorting. It belongs in the past. To withhold care on grounds that are not clinical is simply to invite discrimination. This already happens. Punishment is substituted for therapy.
People who choose to add themselves to the already over-long queues for mental health treatment by choosing to use so-called recreational drugs should be sent to the back of the queue.
———————
It won’t and can’t work. You can’t be sure the mental illness was due to drug use. Same as you can’t be sure diet caused diabetes or heart disease. Monitoring people’s lifestyles like that and removing them from waiting lists is not only a bureaucratic nightmare it requires China level monitoring.
I agree with the concept, I was with my wife when she was sent home with a life threatening problem as the ER didn’t have the resources to look deeper because the place was full with late sat night patients. But in practice it just can’t work.
My father took me to watch Garry Sobers (Dennis Lillee was bowling). Sobers was masterful, he had so much time. I don’t know who was more excited, me or my father (I suspect the latter).
If you are actually interested in knowing the facts about Cannabis use in Australia, The Pennington Institute produced this report this year:
https://www.penington.org.au/cannabis/cannabis-in-australia/
Or you can remain mired in preconceived notions unsupported by evidence.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 11:38 am
briefly being selective with the truth…
Cat remains the same nasty, spiteful …basically hateful…troll they have always been.
I did not lie. You are a fucking disgrace.