Essential Research seems to have a new routine of discreetly slipping out federal voting intention numbers without trumpeting them in their weekly report. Labor is on 35% (up two), the Coalition 30% (down one), Greens 13% (steady), others 17% (steady) with 5% undecided (down one). The “2PP+” two-party measure has Labor steady on 51%, the Coalition up one to 44% and undecided down one to 5%. The weekly report has the monthly personal ratings for Anthony Albanese, which have him unchanged at 60% approval and 27%.
A forced response question on a constitutionally enshrined Indigenous voice to parliament runs 63-37 in favour, in from 65-35 in August. Respondents were presented with four questions querying their understanding of the issue, which found 25% holding the incorrect view that the proposed body would be able to block parliamentary legislation, with 26% believing otherwise and 50% not sure. Forty per cent expected 2023 would be a better year for Australia, compared with 24% for worse and 25% for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1042.
Roy Morgan’s weekly video informs us that their latest federal two-party numbers have Labor’s lead out from 54.5-45.5 to 56.5-43.5.
Who doesnt love a good chin wag on Sky News?
Rex Douglas @ Thursday, December 15, 2022 at 7:10 pm:
“There’s no way back for Putin.
Attacking the lives of innocent civilians like this is a crime against humanity.
He must eventually be brought to justice, one way or the other.”
===================
+1000
Speaking about Coal, guess who is now the world’s richest person after Elon Musk had to hand back the crown?
Yep. That guy. Your friend and mine, Gautam Adani. It helps having friends in high places who just let you do whatever the hell you want while making platitudinous statements about addressing Climate Change in India:
https://wapo.st/3FVIxnq
I’ve unlocked it if you want to read it for free. It’s a long read but worth taking the time.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, December 15, 2022 at 6:51 pm
That requires an awful lot of soldiers to hold and maintain that ground that also require support.
Cronus,
Soldiers from the recently mobilised recruits who may not feel like standing in a trench as sitting ducks.
——————————————————————————————
C@T
Not to mention in literally freezing conditions.
‘Macarthur says:
Thursday, December 15, 2022 at 6:23 pm
BW,
When I see reports of Russia digging in within/behind trenches, I see an army which is:
1. Stuck for ideas;
2. Sitting ducks for SSM’s/artillery with ever-improved targeting systems; and
3. Giving up on actually advancing.
It may be their best play right now strategically, but that such a negative spoiling strategy is the best they can do speaks volumes for the strategic pickle Russia has landed itself in.’
————————————————-
I assume that Russia is now trying to force a favourable negotiated outcome.
1. They have given up on advancing ATM. But if their war aim is a negotiated outcome then they do not need to advance. OTOH, Ukraine side does need to advance to achieve its war aim.
2. If the Russians are sitting still and if the Russians have managed to force Ukraine to adopt static positions, then the Ukrainians are sitting ducks for Russia’s artillery. This would be the point, IMO.
3. They are not ‘stuck for ideas’. They have chosen probably the best idea.
In the Fin. Murdochs minions are bad on the grog…
“News Corporation is investigating complaints relating to an incident at end-of-year drinks for its flagship masthead The Australian at a Sydney pub last week, as the company manages the fall-out from two other party incidents.
The newest incident led to News Corp Australia executive chairman Michael Miller sending a note to staff this week, with a blunt warning about end-of-year Christmas parties: “Remember that inappropriate behaviour has consequences.”
“ources say a senior editor at The Australian attended News Corp headquarters in Sydney on Wednesday to meet with HR over an incident during end-of-year drinks at a pub in Surry Hills.
The incident is understood to have occurred last Thursday night in Surry Hills, where both senior and junior staff were meeting for drinks.”
What a cuck the head of Santos is.
‘Soviet style controls’ … yeah nah. 90% of Santos’s market – exports – is untouched. Even the domestic price cap of $12 is over twice the spot price when his company decided to invest.
Of course, if the government is accused of Soviet style controls, it is only fair that it gets the chance to go full Stalin on his arse. Cuck.
A general discussion about the parameters of a possible negotiated outcome for Putin’s War.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/15/why-crimea-is-volodymyr-zelenskiys-greatest-bargaining-chip
Murphy looks at the situation from Dutton’s POV.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/dec/15/peter-duttons-naked-politicking-over-power-prices-is-as-cynical-as-it-is-calculating
BW, the best they could hope for from a negotiated outcome from here would be: de jure international recognition of their de facto territorial gains in 2014 (Crimea); plus de jure international recognition of their unilateral recognition of DPR/LPR independence from Ukraine; plus a piece of paper outlining a Ukrainian promise to never join NATO. None of this counts as any real material gain for Russia beyond what they had on Feb 23 this year.
This would be a completely inadequate return for the personnel, materiel, finances and international trust and goodwill they have sacrificed in this war they have embarked upon. It would be so inadequate that it would amount to a war aim for national loss on a grand scale.
I absolutely doubt that a negotiated peace like this is Russia’s war aim, nor could it be anything so small if Putin’s regime were to actually survive for very long at all after its conclusion.
Given this, I think we can discount this sort of peace as an actual war aim of Putin.
A strong candidate for a Darwin award:
Coming the other way along a busy street in our suburb was a fellow riding an electric scooter (not a rented one). He was meandering somewhat, holding a phone to his ear and no helmet.
What do you think of nationalising the gas assets and appointing a Murdoch executive as the Chair of the Board to oversee the posession and control of the asset?
“ One of Australia’s key gas producers, Santos, has told The Australian Financial Review Labor’s “Soviet-style” gas policy will require the government to guarantee fiscal terms for projects – similar to what happens in developing economies. Santos has been wanting to develop the crucial Narrabri gas field in NSW. But the terminology allows the politically appealing retort Labor is merely ensuring prices aren’t unreasonable during an era of unprecedented global energy shocks. What’s the problem with that? Extra government funding to assist lower income households and small businesses will sound reasonable to most people too.”
Exactly. Even Jennifer Hewett gets the picture in this article and raises the white flag. A huge win for Albanese, a huge defeat for the greedy and belligerent gas industry.
Paywalled
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/congratulations-to-whoever-came-up-with-the-term-reasonable-pricing-20221215-p5c6lo
yabba @8:09pm yesterday
Thanks for that.
Uncle Archie Roach State memorial on now. Beautiful.
Andrew_Earlwood is correct. If the CEO of Santos thinks that today’s efforts by the Albanese government are ‘Soviet style controls’, then the government should go full Crocodile Dundee on his fat mouth. ‘You think these are ‘Soviet style controls? No, THESE are our ‘Soviet style controls’ on the gas industry! 😀
There was an interview with the CEO of Woodside on RN radio the other morning, which was the best argument for nationalisation of the industry I’ve ever heard.
Not, of course, that the CEO intended it that way…
Sorry I was away,
This is an excellent podcast and summary of elon’s purchase of Twitter.
https://openargs.com/oa645-we-badly-underestimated-just-how-terrible-elon-musk-is-at-business/
His sale of shares over the last few days represents about 4-5% of his holdings. So far he has sold ~19% of his stake in Tesla to own twitter. Imagine selling 19% of your super on something you made a foolhardy quip about.
Macarthur ,
The IS contracts out a lot of their defense aerospace work. I think that Musk/Starlink providing terminals to Ukraine is probably at the behest of the US Defense department as they control access to NASA and control SpaceX (ITAR International Traffic in Arms Regulations applies to rocket / missel companies). He get’s to act like it’s charity, but I bet the US is paying for those terminals, and musk is probably charging like a haliburton hammer.
Anyway, Musk is shredding his cred and his money.
News Corporation is investigating complaints relating to an incident at end-of-year drinks for its flagship masthead The Australian at a Sydney pub last week, as the company manages the fall-out from two other party incidents.
Alcohol is a disinhibiter. Duh!
These incidents are also the inevitable consequence of the culture inculcated at Murdoch media. Hard-charging, hard-living, say outrageous things without consequences, no holds barred, Libertarianesque. Also men who are used to being top dog around women, unless it’s a woman like Peta Credlin, that you understand is your superior.
Turns out governments change the laws and your employer doesn’t want to get the big fines or licence suspensions that now go along with behaviour like this in the workplace or at company functions.
Another Elon factoid which I just heard… he hasn’t been paying the rent on the Twitter buildings. 😐
BTW, It would have been great if today, the Albo government in secrete with the greens, just jammed through a super profits tax. Suprise slap in the fact for xmas.
Socrates @8:19am
First of all, we basically agree that HSR makes more sense in the high volume corridors such as Newcastle to Sydney and not Sydney to Melbourne.
The article referencing Phillip Laird’s proposal is interesting. But the headline is meaningless (11 hours reduced to 6 hours). The XPT makes it from Campbelltown to Yass in just over 3 hours, so if you’ve saving half of that, you’re doing well. There’s still lots and lots of really crappy track beyond Yass.
It might be possible to reduce the Sydney to Melbourne time down to 6 hours, but only with an extensive rebuild of most of the existing rail line – which simply begs the question of why not avoid creating a stranded asset and simply build out sections of an end-game HSR line. That’s particularly applicable to the section from Sydney to Goulburn.
The XPT enjoys a miniscule 1% mode share of the Sydney to Melbourne market. Triple that and everyone will call it a success, but in reality it doesn’t really change much. And this is the problem I have with rail advocates who are a) needlessly focused on Sydney to Melbourne and b) suffer from magical thinking issues regarding how much time can be saved, at what cost and how much it matters anyhow.
Btw I do sympathise with the idea of upgrading the rail line simply to have a modernised freight line. However there does come a time when you have to come to terms with the fact that its several times more expensive, per kilometre, to rebuild an existing rail line than it is to simply build a new line, in parallel and under greenfield conditions.
Btw, Phillip still owes me a coffee.
My takeaways from today’s Jake Broe, https://youtu.be/XbB_8yoBeHY:
1. If Russia’s invasion has been stopped dead in its tracks by Ukraine using the armaments it currently has, what chance they can even hold what they have once Ukraine gets Patriot missiles and Leopard 2 tanks?
2. On track for 100k war dead for Russia by NYE, with very little to show for it. No wonder Putin has cancelled his annual “look at me I’m so transparent” press conference for the first time in a decade.
3. Nice recommendation for the Letterman interview with President Zelenskyy on Netflix, which I referenced here last night.
“News Corporation is investigating complaints relating to an incident at end-of-year drinks for its flagship masthead The Australian at a Sydney pub last week, as the company manages the fall-out from two other party incidents.”
Writing crap day in day out must be soul destroying. They seek solace in the Bottle and inevitably things get out of hand…
Free market or not, they’re all interventionists now
The Coalition has taken a risk by defending free-market principles, even if it has a long history of energy market intervention.
Phillip Coorey
While the opposition’s stance is a brave one, even crazy brave, and Labor’s new laws take intervention to a whole new level, we should not forget the national energy markets have been such a rolling failure of public policy over the past two decades that there has already been a load of market interference.
Big stick and the gas trigger
It was the previous Coalition government that introduced the gas trigger, designed to act as a retrospective gas reserve on the east coast.
It introduced the big-stick legislation to enable the forced divestment of power companies engaging in anticompetitive conduct, and began the policy of underwriting baseload generation, which involved building (Snowy 2.0) or subsiding generators to boost competition.
The Nationals demanded for years the government subsidise or build coal-fired power stations even when the markets lost interest, and towards the end of the Coalition government’s last term, the party suggested federal government become a financier of last resort for the mining sector via the creation of a $250 billion loan facility, if it wanted the Nationals’ support for net zero emissions by 2050.
Not that it was energy-related, but the Coalition government slapped the banks with a $6.2 billion tax because, in the words of then-treasurer Scott Morrison, the people “already don’t like you very much”.
That the opposition is once more defending the free market is to be welcomed by free market advocates.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/free-market-or-not-they-re-all-interventionists-now-20221215-p5c6i8
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/12/14/essential-research-2pp-labor-51-coalition-44-undecided-5-open-thread/comment-page-21/#comment-4031202
I think Milans (https://www.eliteukforces.info/weapons/milan/ , and now there’s drones, ultra-precision artillery …), grenades and bayonets got used on reclaiming the Falklands
Any Russian air support is going to have to get past them Patriots way from the front line
Steve777 says:
Thursday, December 15, 2022 at 9:04 pm
Remember News & the Daily Terror are located deep in the heart of what was Sydney’s home of breweries plus 4 pubs on every corner.
Journos habitually pi**ed before they started work, add the bloke-culture on top.
dave @ #1025 Thursday, December 15th, 2022 – 9:07 pm
So glad my Vic State Govt are returning to state owned/controlled energy provision.
Democracy always better than a Corporatocracy.
Let’s nationalise Santos…
Macarthur,
It was interesting to hear Jake Broe say that the Patriots may be coming from Poland. So they’ll be there soon. 🙂
Snappy Tom @8:52am
As I said to Socrates, the spruikers of a “fast enough” Sydney to Melbourne rail line generally get several things wrong. Starting with being focused on Sydney to Melbourne (or Sydney to Canberra). They also tend to form a view of what is possible, before really doing the hard core engineering and discovering just how much shit there is to push uphill. You won’t get a six hour trip without effectively rebuilding most of the line.
The guy behind hotrails I have some respect for. He did a lot of detailed work on his alignment and it would work as described – with some exceptions. The main problem he has is that his basic principle was to keep as much of the existing track as possible and just ease curves where needed. The end result is that he rebuild around 70% of the entire rail line.
His cost estimates are also undercooked. Not faulting his thorough, scholarly work. Just that when I talk to rail industry people about this, they all point out stuff he’s not accounted for. Plus he’s another person who doesn’t get why its several times more expensive to rework existing, live rail lines than it is to build a new line in parallel. In any case, what he came up with is still the better part of 10 billion on his own terms. With similar assumptions you could get a full HSR standard line for about 50% more.
In fact he’s actually made the argument for why a “good enough and cheap” rail line doesn’t exist.
And its not by coincidence that his route goes through his tiny home town, where there are better options available.
Also, there’s a lot of people going around desperately avoiding using the phrase “high speed” and its so cringeworthy. They’re conditioned to think that if you do enter into the realms of “high speed” (that is 250+) then you’ll scare politicians.
Plus the belief that “fast” equates to “a lot cheaper”. The reality is, it all depends on the terrain. And very often it boils down to the fact that once you’ve opted for a new alignment, that alignment might as well (in most cases) be a full high speed alignment, because it makes very little difference to the engineering. There are pragmatic exceptions, of course. But the idea that a 200 km/h alignment is heaps cheaper than a 300 km/hr alignment doesn’t stand up to real world analysis.
One perfect example is between Sydney and Gosford. The existing rail line hugs the spine of the Hornsby ridge line and somehow clings to the side of the hill as it approaches the Hawkesbury. That’s the best they could build at the time. But as soon as you start specifying faster alignments and move away from those ridge lines it quickly becomes a horror story – high bridges across deep gullies. In fact there is no practical difference between a 160 km/h alignment and a 250 km/h alignment. They both run up against the same fact – you need to build a tunnel.
Incidentally the 2013 Study has an alignment between Hornsby and Ourimbah that screams “terminal phase tunnel avoidance syndrome”. They simultaneously over-costed tunnel and under-costed high level major bridges (of which there are several – including their billion+ dollar Hawkesbury bridge). As a result they have no less than 15 tunnel segments. Often these begin and end in remote, inaccessible terrain involving yet more access (road and power) related works, but also a lot of environmental remediation. 15 tunnels. Most of which are too short to be economically built with boring machines. And in the end – 55% of their route still ended up in tunnel. Plus expensive bridges. Plus smashing deep cuttings through several national parks.
The AWU have long been a partner in the gas industry.
As soon as the AWU lost power within Vic Labor Govt, the announcement of a clean energy SEC is made. Funny that.
Trench lines were dug along the WW1 Western Front because the main beligerents had lost the best trained portions of their professional armies, and attempted to replace them with mass conscription. Such troops proved incapable of prosecuting a war of movement and so the higher commands ordered them to dig in, attrit the enemy and then, after gaining experience and some training, break out into open spaces. It took until mid 1918 and the arrival of a million fresh troops to do so.
A century of technical progress in methods of mass killing allied to the fact Russia is not going to be able to recruit 1 million willing fresh recruits means that this is a failed option, but perhaps still the best option available to the Russians. Casualties on their side will be horrendous trapped in large long holes out in the open under swarms of drones.
Lol Coalition.
https://www.themonthly.com.au/the-politics/rachel-withers/2022/12/15/high-their-own-supply
Macarthur
At current rate, its 100k dead Russian soldiers by Xmas.
And for every killed in action, there are several wounded and a bunch more rendered combat ineffective. In other words, the better part of 100k soldiers dead, wounded or demoralised, per month.
C@t
That particular level crossing disappears when you bring HSR tracks into Woy Woy.
Thanks for the historical contextual analysis, Cut Snake. 🙂
The Ukrainians should get really creative and mediaeval and have boiling vats of hot oil hovering over the trenches, suspended underneath drones, and if the Russians don’t surrender …
NB I’m only kidding.
c@tmomma thanks for the post re news corporation. Shocking that Labor would appoint one of them to a senior post like Australia Post? I am all for it personally but you must be agahst?
Cud Chewer @ #1036 Thursday, December 15th, 2022 – 9:25 pm
We will still have suburban trains running all stations between Broadmeadow and Hornsby. So we still will need that level crossing removed.
UK Defence Minister, Ben Wallace:
https://youtu.be/UuHbcM9Gg40
Newcastle moderate @9:35am
Well first of all, its approaching a million people and that could potentially double. One of the sleights of hand often used is to lump the Central Coast in with Sydney’s population.
As I said in the article, you need to go back in time and look at the transformational effect of the M1 – which if built today would set you back around $20 billion. The question I posed is this: If you were to retrospectively justify the cost of the M1, how would you do so? How would you elaborate on all the subtle and physically widespread social and economic benefits? Its a tough call, but its instructive as to why we have a problem with HSR. It’s not that it isn’t worth the investment. it’s that we don’t have the tools to develop the business case.
This is why my colleagues and I formed a consortium back in 2017 to bid on the federal Faster Rail Prospectus – which was offering around 7 million for development of a business case for a fast/high speed rail project. The whole business of doing the economic case in detail was part of our pitch.
The other consideration is what it costs you to not build HSR (again the article sets this out). If you’re not building HSR then you accept the consequence – which is you end up spending tens of billions on road pavement and all the long term costs associated with road usage. This is why the consortium we put together actually included road builders – since we needed their expertise on road costings.
Agreed and there’s several others including the one at Koolewong and the one at Warnervale.
I looked into the engineering involved in removing the level crossing at Wyong. Done well it can be done as “preliminary works”. In other words done in 2 stages.
“Dutton should be worried about Simon B. He seems like a middle of the road boring liberal lots of Australians could get behind. Duttonn’s glasses will not soften him.”
Simon Birmingham is based in the senate and at best probably couldn’t get a seat in the House of Reps till the next election. I couldn’t see how be could be opposition leader without facing Anthony Albanese in question time. Should Dutton be worried about him? Not really.
shellbell
This site is a great resource.
https://www.ozroads.com.au/NSW/Freeways/F3/f3.htm
Also,
Check out this from Newcastle back in 1928 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMF43rm0rg0&list=PL770O5Dcc_Nr_HnXRFFtm5h4ys-i4cJKl&index=2
Cud,
The level crossing at Koolewong should be way down the list.
PtA @6:15pm
Well, Singleton to a HSR station at Tarro is 47 minutes by today’s train. With straight forward improvements to the Hunter line that’s 42 minutes. Tarro to Sydney would be 40 minutes.
That still shits all over driving.
C@t
The one at Warnervale should be way up the list. In any case they all should have been fixed yonks ago.
https://youtu.be/bTlxTEBRofE
Socrates
Interested in your thoughts regarding my articles.
Cud,
Is the one at Warnervale in a state seat held by Labor?