Freshwater Strategy: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)

A late federal polling entry for the Financial Review records a slightly narrow Labor lead than other pollsters, while recording strong support for an Indigenous voice and a cap on gas prices.

One last federal voting intention poll for the year, it seems, contrary to the expectations expressed in my previous post. This one is a poll for the Financial Review from Freshwater Strategy, which has previous conducted New South Wales and Victorian state polls for the paper, the latter of which made a pretty good stab at the result three weeks out. This poll has Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, with Labor at the Coalition at 37% apiece on the primary vote, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 4%. Anthony Albanese records a favourable rating of 48% and unfavourable of 30%, while Peter Dutton is on 29% and 38%, with Albanese leading 55-29 on preferred prime minister.

The poll also finds support for an Indigenous voice at 50% with 26% opposed, with 63% saying they were aware of the proposed referendum compared with 37% for unaware. Forty per cent believed voters had sufficient information, with 50% saying they did not. Other findings related to the proposed cap on gas prices, which was supported by 56% and opposed by 20%. Sixty per cent expressed support for extracting and using more domestic gas with 22% opposed; given a head-to-head choice between a cap on prices and increasing the supply of energy, the result was an effective tie at 40% to 39%. An issue salience question produced the familiar finding that cost-of-living was far and away the greatest concern, with 71% choosing it when asked to offer three responses.

The poll was conducted online from Friday to Sunday with a sample of 1209.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,895 comments on “Freshwater Strategy: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 33 of 38
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  1. Upnorthsays:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 12:28 pm
    Well well the Christmas spirit is flowing freely on PB this morning ( it’s still morning here).

    _______________________
    I’m in the U.S. for Christmas. Already had my first lecture on how America has been F***ed since the day Obama was elected because he set back all the good work on race relations that had occurred for generations, from my in-laws.

    Yep unpack that whilst I have another red wine! haha. Merry Christmas and best wishes all. So happy that we have a country where most live in the centre.

  2. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 12:08 pm
    I just don’t get why people feel the need to criticise a pragmatic government that appears to know what are the limitations of what it can achieve? Whilst still working to implement a Progressive agenda?
    ———————————————————————————————-

    I was listening to a RenewEconomy podcast this morning whilst exercising wherein they interviewed AEMO’s head of system design, Merryn York, progressing and coordinating the engineering element of the government’s 82% renewables by 2030 policy.

    The technical skills required and engineering and planning being undertaken to achieve this task are mind blowing, particularly in the short space of time. Nothing else like this is being undertaken at this level on a continental scale anywhere else in the world, far less by such a small population. By 2030, Australia will not only have achieved an extraordinary milestone but will essentially own the practical IP in how to take this planning and engineering worldwide.

    While success appears almost certain and they’re working at maximum speed, York highlighted the fact that there is currently no playbook on achieving the goal, particularly while trying to balance and retire FF. She noted too the criticality of ensuring success (failure would only feed the opponents) by pragmatic, if slightly slower, testing and introduction of the technology. It won’t happen overnight but it will happen by 2030 but the existing FF cannot simply be dropped on a whim. I’m in awe of what Australians are achieving in this space that is truly revolutionary from an energy and climate perspective, assisted in no small part by a highly supportive government.

  3. Bystander @ #1591 Saturday, December 24th, 2022 – 12:24 pm

    If you are referring to Bushfire Bill I miss him too. I think the blog lost something when he went. Hopefully one day he will be allowed return.

    Well, I wouldn’t go so far as to say I wanted him back. I just miss the fact that he sometimes posted some amusing stuff. But then he also posted some awful stuff, which I presume is what got him binned.

    I guess the real point is that we should all be more accommodating of diverse opinions. If it ends up being only Labor FanBois, FanGoils and FanLGQTIAs, this place will not be worth visiting. Just go visit your local Labor Fight Club, as I used to do.

  5. ParkySP says:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 12:40 pm
    Upnorthsays:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 12:28 pm
    Well well the Christmas spirit is flowing freely on PB this morning ( it’s still morning here).

    _______________________
    I’m in the U.S. for Christmas. Already had my first lecture on how America has been F***ed since the day Obama was elected because he set back all the good work on race relations that had occurred for generations, from my in-laws.

    Yep unpack that whilst I have another red wine! haha. Merry Christmas and best wishes all. So happy that we have a country where most live in the centre.
    ——————————————————————————————

    Politics notwithstanding, absolutely nobody does Xmas like the American’s though, truly outstanding.

  6. Not so joyous.

    Elon Musk ‘orders Twitter to remove suicide prevention feature’

    Sources say new owner sought removal of #ThereIsHelp feature that appeared at top of certain searches

    The sources with knowledge of his decision declined to be named because they feared retaliation.

    The removal of the feature, known as #ThereIsHelp, has not been previously reported. It had shown at the top of specific searches contacts for support organisations in many countries related to mental health, HIV, vaccines, child sexual exploitation, Covid19, gender-based violence, natural disasters and freedom of expression.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/dec/23/elon-musk-orders-twitter-to-remove-suicide-prevention-feature

    From the article, the idea was that certain search terms returned results with added links to support organisations. This feature has been removed. Whether this is careless or deliberate, Mr Musk is doing himself no favours. I have to think it’s simply that he doesn’t care. What would he gain from this?

  7. I only have the Howard commentary third hand by way of two examples: the treatment of Holgate an the treatment of Turnbull.

    If Howard had started his critique with the following, I might be inclined to listen to him:

    ‘I led successive governments that not only did nothing on climate change, those governments did everything they could on a national and international scale to stop or hinder climate action. The result is a monster mess that is only starting to be cleared up by the 2022 Albanese Government. All the current failures of the Liberal Party can be traced back to the core decision to sell Australia, and the World, down the drain on climate. Everything follows from that. For that, I, John Howard, take full responsibility.’

  9. I think the Liberal Party have it correct in their review. It wasn’t just the Prime minister who was at fault. I think a large amount of the blame should be put on the Minister for the Public Service, the Minister of Industry, Science and Energy, the Minister for Resources, the Minister for Home Affairs, the Minister for Finance, the Minister for Health and Aged Care and the Treasurer 😉

  10. Whether this is careless or deliberate, Mr Musk is doing himself no favours. I have to think it’s simply that he doesn’t care. What would he gain from this?

    Caring about mental health is just another example of left wing wokeism run wild. Of course Elon must stamp it out.

  11. Ridgiesrule @ #1608 Saturday, December 24th, 2022 – 11:50 am

    Sorry to be a pain, but how do I add a .jpg file to a post on PB?

    Thanks in advance.

    No worries. This comes up more often than you’d think. (Perhaps WIlliam could offer a link to a simple explanation.)

    First, the image (jpg) needs to be visible online and in public. A link starting with https: should retrieve the image into your browser. (Regular speak: If you type the link into the address bar of your browser it should show up. It must start with https:)

    Second, you add that link into your post. Whichever browsers we all have will do the rest and show the image after you submit your comment.

    Where it gets tricky, if you haven’t done it before, is putting your image online and in public. I use postimage for that. But there are other tools too.
    https://postimages.org/

    Good luck.

  13. Cronussays:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 12:20 pm
    I took the time to read Benson’s article. I won’t of course be buying the book and disappointingly though unsurprisingly, there was not a single new gem of interest to pique my interest in the article. It was simply a rehash of that which we already know. Nor did it even offer a glimpse into the Liberal future from a Liberal Statesman, perhaps because there is little future in a party that lives in and hankers for the past. Broad church, low taxes, no vision for the future, yada yada. It’s as though Howard never even set foot into the 21st century.
    ===========================================

    Having drinks with three friends this week (all committed LNP supporters) and one shocked the table declaring that the LNP would not win another election in his lifetime. Reason, under 40’s would not vote for them, as they are so out of touch. He is a publican with multiple properties!

  16. Well here are the official COVID number out of China for yesterday:

    “The latest situation of the novel coronavirus pneumonia as of 24:00 on December 23
    4,103 local cases (1,737 in Guangdong, 580 in Beijing, 338 in Fujian, and 1 in Yunnan). 309 cases, 283 cases in Chongqing, 258 cases in Hubei, 109 cases in Hunan, 94 cases in Sichuan, 80 cases in Shanghai, 52 cases in Shanxi, 51 cases in Tianjin, 35 cases in Shaanxi, 33 cases in Henan, 32 cases in Jiangxi, 31 cases in Shandong, and 30 cases in Zhejiang , 13 cases in Hebei, 10 cases in Guangxi, 9 cases in Inner Mongolia, 9 cases in Heilongjiang, 5 cases in Qinghai, 2 cases in Hainan, 1 case in Jiangsu, 1 case in Tibet, and 1 case in Ningxia). There were no new deaths.”

    No deaths again and case numbers falling. “Lies lies and statistics”.

  17. I just watched a Korean Drama , Youth of May, set in the city of Gwanju.
    It is about a set of people who live through the May of 1980 Gwanju massacre of student protesters, innocent civilians and anyone else who was in the wrong place at the wrong time.
    The military dictatorship imposed nationwide martial law and sent in the army to seal off Gwanju. Then a hardcore specially-trained, psycologically-brutalised army group went in on a killing and rape spree. I suspect they were given drugs as well.

    I did not know Korea’s democracy was so young and gained at such a price.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gwangju_Uprising?wprov=sfla1

    Remember when Dutton thought is was a good idea to use the ADF to do identity checks on the streets of Melbourne? He hopes to be our next PM.

  18. ” rel=”nofollow ugc”>
    Dusty and I say Merry Christmas to all here.

    First time I have managed to do this. Thanks for the info request!
    Dusty is my Lions Hearing Assistance Dog. Now 8.5 years old and I have had him for 6 years in March coming.

  19. Cronus @ #1602 Saturday, December 24th, 2022 – 12:40 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 12:08 pm
    I just don’t get why people feel the need to criticise a pragmatic government that appears to know what are the limitations of what it can achieve? Whilst still working to implement a Progressive agenda?
    ———————————————————————————————-

    I was listening to a RenewEconomy podcast this morning whilst exercising wherein they interviewed AEMO’s head of system design, Merryn York, progressing and coordinating the engineering element of the government’s 82% renewables by 2030 policy.

    The technical skills required and engineering and planning being undertaken to achieve this task are mind blowing, particularly in the short space of time. Nothing else like this is being undertaken at this level on a continental scale anywhere else in the world, far less by such a small population. By 2030, Australia will not only have achieved an extraordinary milestone but will essentially own the practical IP in how to take this planning and engineering worldwide.

    While success appears almost certain and they’re working at maximum speed, York highlighted the fact that there is currently no playbook on achieving the goal, particularly while trying to balance and retire FF. She noted too the criticality of ensuring success (failure would only feed the opponents) by pragmatic, if slightly slower, testing and introduction of the technology. It won’t happen overnight but it will happen by 2030 but the existing FF cannot simply be dropped on a whim. I’m in awe of what Australians are achieving in this space that is truly revolutionary from an energy and climate perspective, assisted in no small part by a highly supportive government.

    Thanks for this detail, Cronus. Australians got where we are today by being inventive and entrepreneurial. The Coalition just wanted a select few to make money by controlling who owned the ground that could be dug up and sold overseas, for no one’s benefit but their own. It still makes my blood boil to think that Gina Reinhart, with all her wealth, was advocating paying workers in the mines $2 an hour!

    These people needed to be stopped and I’m so glad that the Australian people woke up from the Bread and Circuses-induced stupour that these people and the politicians that were their avatars in positions of power, had lulled the populace into accepting as their lot in life as they went about aggrandising themselves.

    My undying gratitude goes to Paul Eriksen, Tim Gartrell and Anthony Albanese for devising the antidote which broke the spell.

  23. Themunz says:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 12:59 pm
    Cronussays:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 12:20 pm
    I took the time to read Benson’s article. I won’t of course be buying the book and disappointingly though unsurprisingly, there was not a single new gem of interest to pique my interest in the article. It was simply a rehash of that which we already know. Nor did it even offer a glimpse into the Liberal future from a Liberal Statesman, perhaps because there is little future in a party that lives in and hankers for the past. Broad church, low taxes, no vision for the future, yada yada. It’s as though Howard never even set foot into the 21st century.
    ===========================================

    Having drinks with three friends this week (all committed LNP supporters) and one shocked the table declaring that the LNP would not win another election in his lifetime. Reason, under 40’s would not vote for them, as they are so out of touch. He is a publican with multiple properties!
    ———————————————————————————————

    He just might be onto something.

  26. Cronus 12.40

    Well said on energy. For all the angst about whether we should adopt a 43% GHG reduction target by 2030, or higher or lower, the real test was what would the government do to achieve it? Happily, with the attention on new renewable generation (finally a mechanism for offshore wind), desperately needed grid upgrades, and multiple grid scale batteries, we are starting to make progress.

    I am personally optimistic that the Labor targets for GHG reduction by 2030 will be achieved or exceeded via change in the electricity sector. Look at what SA achieved in the past month.

    The next big GHG challenges will be transport and things like waste disposal to landfill. Both are fixable with the right policy.

  28. I guess the real point is that we should all be more accommodating of diverse opinions. If it ends up being only Labor FanBois, FanGoils and FanLGQTIAs, this place will not be worth visiting. Just go visit your local Labor Fight Club, as I used to do.

    I totally agree with you on that P1. I am a Labor supporter but I don’t get involved in the groupthink that is evident here at times. I prefer to think things through for myself.

  31. C@T

    “ My undying gratitude goes to Paul Eriksen, Tim Gartrell and Anthony Albanese for devising the antidote which broke the spell.”

    Agreed, they need to bottle that secret recipe.

  36. Cronus @ Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 1:20 pm:
    “ And talking about out of touch………”
    ====================

    Cronus, this I truly do not get. Is there some constituency or market out there for outrage against help for potential victims of suicide? In our context, for example, are there actually people who get offended by the messages to call Lifeline and so on, at the end of stories with potentially triggering content?

  37. “ What we’ve learned from the Albanese experiment” Paul Kelly

    The most accurate (not perfect), substantive and readable article from The Oz in 2022 imho. Worth the read.

    Paywalled
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Finquirer%2Fwhat-weve-learned-from-the-albanese-experiment%2Fnews-story%2F295113d7b8e1f9aa5c4202f41d45e1aa&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=dynamic-groupb-control-noscore&V21spcbehaviour=append

  38. Just about to close down for today but just wanted to wish EACH and EVERY member of the Poll Bludger *family* a safe and enjoyable day tomorrow with your family and friends

    Special thanks to William for providing US with the forum to sound off all our political and personal thoughts ……. a special thanks also to BK for his daily Dawn Patrol marathons and a special thanks to the indefatigable and resiliant C@tmomma who carries us all along through thick and thin each day …….Victoria for her sublime predictions of the future …….

  39. ‘Cronus says:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 1:51 pm

    “ What we’ve learned from the Albanese experiment” Paul Kelly
    ….’
    —————————
    If the Albanese Government is an ‘experiment’ then the Morrison Government was a lab disaster.

  40. If Mr Musk deliberately took down #ThereIsHelp, it might be penny pinching or something else. Maybe there’s a clue in this.

    [the hashtag] had shown at the top of specific searches contacts for support organisations in many countries related to mental health, HIV, vaccines, child sexual exploitation, Covid19, gender-based violence, natural disasters and freedom of expression.

    Though words “many countries” and “freedom of expression” are ambiguous, the article coyly adds this a little further on.

    Thai group featured over freedom of expression support

    I’m not inclined to conspiracies, but I can be cynical. Perhaps money was a contributing factor in the decision.

  41. Boerwar says:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 1:59 pm
    ‘Cronus says:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 1:51 pm

    “ What we’ve learned from the Albanese experiment” Paul Kelly
    ….’
    —————————
    If the Albanese Government is an ‘experiment’ then the Morrison Government was a lab disaster.
    ——————————————————————————————-

    +100.
    Heading aside, it’s a surprisingly positive article. Perhaps Kelly is mellowing.

  42. Cronussays:
    Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 1:51 pm

    “ What we’ve learned from the Albanese experiment” Paul Kelly

    The most accurate (not perfect), substantive and readable article from The Oz in 2022 imho. Worth the read.

    Paywalled
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Finquirer%2Fwhat-weve-learned-from-the-albanese-experiment%2Fnews-story%2F295113d7b8e1f9aa5c4202f41d45e1aa&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=dynamic-groupb-control-noscore&V21spcbehaviour=append

    That’s the problem when you abandon knowledge, you need to rediscover it before you can use it again.

  44. Ridgiesrule @ #1643 Saturday, December 24th, 2022 – 2:27 pm

    laughtong @ #1634 Saturday, December 24th, 2022 – 12:37 pm

    From your choice of name I was expecting ridgebacks. Their faces look like greyhound. Lovely dogs!

    Hi Laughtong.

    You are correct. There are two greyhound girls – Friday (middle) and Kallie (on right), and one ridgeback boy – Boof.

    Unfortunately my photographic skills leave a lot to be desired LOL.

    Plenty to keep you active and fun and games amongst themselves. Enjoy

  47. phoenixRED,
    Not many people can make this old bird cry these days but you damn well did! I appreciate your kind words, thank you. 🙂

  50. Socrates: “The next big GHG challenges will be transport and things like waste disposal to landfill. Both are fixable with the right policy.”

    Can’t see that waste management starting in earnest until 2030+. The next big ticket item I believe will be electrification and hydrogen enabled heavy transport. Train and road freight transport, and the swap out of utility vehicle fleets. Mainly because this can be done through revenue neutral incentives. We won’t see the real action on that until the upgraded fleets over the next three years hit the second-hand market. That is sort of 2028+.

    The thing this will do, though, is accelerate the drop of carbon emissions as a percentage of total grid emissions, without even a single fossil fuel plant closing. The total capacity of our grid will be much larger in 2030 to cater for the electrification of so much transport. The 82% of the grid being sourced from renewables will occur by removing so much FF transport from the roads. As far as I can tell, the drop in transport emissions isn’t even included in the powering Australia policy of an 82% renewables grid. I expect the total emissions to drop markedly. When EV fleets start being used to soak up renewables and distributing that power in the evening, the drop in emissions should be even more precipitous.

    There are millions of fleet managed utility vehicles alone in Oz. At 100KWh per vehicle, most of which are unused at night, it will be like having a thousand Hornsdale utility batteries. That’s when the coal plants get switched off forever, and the gas infrastructure starts getting mothballed.

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