As it usually does on Boxing Day, The Australian has published quarterly aggregates of Newspoll with state and demographic breakdowns, on this occasion casting an unusually wide net from its polling all the way back to July to early this month, reflecting the relative infrequency of its results over this time. The result is a combined survey of 5771 respondents that finds Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (a swing of about 3.5% to Labor compared with the election), 57-43 in Victoria (about 2%), 55-45 in Western Australia (no change) and 57-43 in South Australia (a 4.0% swing), while trailing 51-49 in Queensland a 3% swing).
Gender breakdowns show only a slight gap, with Labor leading 54-46 among men and 56-44 among women, with the Greens as usual stronger among women among men. Age cohort results trend from 65-35 to Labor for 18-to-34 to 54-46 to the Coalition among 65-plus, with the Greens respectively on 24% and 3%. Little variation is recorded according to education or income, but Labor are strongest among part-time workers and weakest among the retired, stronger among non-English speakers but well ahead either way, and 62-38 ahead among those identifying as of no religion but 53-47 behind among Christians. You can find all the relevant data, at least for voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack.
Macarthur, I have returned.
Whilst on septics, what about the amazing story of newly elected congressman George Santos.
You can make this shit up!
We have had a poster on this board proudly claiming to be a Canadian tanker.
Gary Delaney is on tour now @GaryDelaney·
I bought a Russian advent calendar. Every time you open a window an oligarch falls out.
Macarthur @ #1095 Thursday, December 29th, 2022 – 11:07 am
What makes you think that I was referring to you?
FWIW: This is a belated correction to an earlier post. It should read:
“… what Mr Musk thinks of as “free speech” …”
Andrew_Earlwood @ Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 11:19 am:
” Jingoism blinds folk. Even otherwise intelligent and rational folk. You have provided a textbook example of that pitfall.”
=======================
A_E, you may be right.
1. On boycotts of Russian culture while the invasion is on, I do think it is inappropriate to participate in a cultural event if it would offend victims of an injustice, when the victims themselves (in this case, through their government) ask us to forbear for that reason.
2. On raising questions about the motives of the US in suppporting Ukraine, I think it is not right to cast moral aspersions against a supporter of resistance to an injustice, while the victims of that injustice are struggling for their very existence and desperately need that support.
I agree with you that I have been overly strident in my outrage at what I have perceived as transgressions against those two things on this blog. I accept that these view of mine are really just my own views, and it is not incompatible with good faith for people to think otherwise. I wish I had simply made these points then like I have made them to you just now. There was and is absolutely no call for me to stoop to name-calling.
I offer both you and dave my full apology and retraction of what I have said about you both.
yabbas @ Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 11:28 am
“What makes you think that I was referring to you?”
===================
I hope that, at least, I’m not completely lacking in self awareness. Peace.
phoenixRED @ Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 11:21 am
“Gary Delaney is on tour now @GaryDelaney·
I bought a Russian advent calendar. Every time you open a window an oligarch falls out.”
=============================
Thanks, I think I needed that!
Now for something completely different- although it’s still about politics – and this is the primary raison d’ existence of this site…
The Fairfax media running a story about who’s been ” frozen out” in the Coalition team in Federal Parliament- eg, Tehan, Chester, Barnyard in favour of the ” in- team” ( my label). of Ley, Dutton, Littleproud and ……Taylor.
Wow…. what an ” in team”!. I suppose adding any of the former would make little difference anyway, except to show you the absolute shallowness of the Coalition team.
Add to that, any possible rising star on the backbench would either be disinclined to get too close to the drivers of the Coalition train wreck, or be shut down as being a potential challenger to them.
The Coalition , IMO, has two overwhelming problems to overcome.
The team they have has got to go- they are saddled with the lead of being in Morrison’s team. A complete new team has to come in and those in charge now have to get out of politics altogether.
Secondly, the Coalition has to be dragged into the 21st Century with policies that are relevant to a broad section of the voting population, not just to a small and declining voter base.
These two problems are going to keep the Coalition out of power for a long time. Even if Labor makes it hard for themselves over the next two terms, the Coaition have to present themselves not only as an alternative government, but one worthy of being an alternative.
Gettysburg1863 @ Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 11:46 am
Where does Fletcher fit? Don’t hear much about him.
These are the truly patriotic Russians: the ‘Freedom of Russia’ legion, who have been fighting alongside Ukraine against Russia’s military invasion. Not the ‘zombified’ hordes of Russian soldiers and their supporters back home.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/6211
In the words of their spokesperson, Caesar:
“I am not fighting my motherland. I am fighting against Putin’s regime, against evil,” he says, switching between Russian and English. “I’m not a traitor. I’m a true Russian patriot who thinks about the future of my country.”
There, now don’t you feel better, Macarthur? 🙂
Gettysburg1863 @ #1109 Thursday, December 29th, 2022 – 10:46 am
Yep. But with one caveat. Solving the second problem requires solving the first. In itself this puts a likely LNP government at least two terms away. New MPs in leadership positions will take two terms to establish.
That’s not to say the ALP should be complacent. This is a chance for the ALP to make haste slowly.
A reminder that Iran has long behaved as an enemy towards Ukraine, despite Ukraine never having committed any aggression towards them:
“Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry issued a joint statement alongside Canada, Sweden, and the U.K. urging that Iran be held accountable for the “illegal downing of Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752.”
The aircraft was downed by two missiles after taking off from Tehran, Iran, on Jan. 8, 2020. All 176 people aboard died.
Shortly after the downing of the aircraft, Iran admitted to mistakenly shooting down the plane.”
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-other-countries-urge-iran-to-take-responsibility-for-downing-of-flight-ps-752
C@tmomma @ Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 12:05 pm:
“There, now don’t you feel better, Macarthur?”
=======================
Much, thank you! 🙂
I should try to remember: never type angry. Or, if I do, save it for the Russians.
Negotiations are only possible with Putin once his back is not just against the wall but uncomfortably pressing against some spikes, I would think. Otherwise it is pointless and untrustworthy.
Thankfully the Putin Republicans didn’t get control of both houses of Congress or the threat of American aid being cut off would probably justify opening negotiations from a bad position.
Fed Labor should manage out Graham Perrett into a nice cushy job elsewhere to free up Moreton for Anastacia. Perrett’s had a good 15 yr innings so time to go. Can’t be Oxley as Milton Dick is Speaker.
Anastacia should be installed as Deputy Leader and heir apparent to Albo.
“Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that the Kremlin will continue to pursue a military solution to the war until the Ukrainian government capitulates to Russia’s demands. Lavrov stated in a December 27 interview with Russian state news wire TASS that Ukraine and the West are “well aware of Russia’s proposals on the demilitarization and denazification” of Ukrainian-controlled territory and that the Russian military will settle these issues if Ukraine refuses to accept these proposals. Russian demands for “demilitarization” aim to eliminate Ukraine’s ability to resist further Russian attacks, while the demands for “denazification” are tantamount to calls for regime change in Ukraine.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/
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There you go. Russia’s “willingness to negotiate” with Ukraine equals nothing more than “readiness to accept unconditional surrender” from Ukraine.
“Москва повинна бути зруйнована.”
Would it be appropriate to have a dedicated Russia/Ukraine war thread …?
This is the second time Macarthur has gone troppo over the issue and then meekly backed down after some criticism. He is treating PB like a therapy lounge.
Rex, come on now, play fair. I don’t ask for dedicated threads for Labor-Green Flame Wars, or Internal Labor Party Preselection Shit-Stirring. This is an OPEN thread.
Rex Douglassays:
Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 12:22 pm
Probably more appropriate to have one for you.
Replacing Perrett with Anastacia would improve Fed Labor. I hardly think that is ‘shit-stirring’.
Capitalise on her standing with Qlders and get her into a leadership role. It weakens the L/NP grip on Qld federally thus it’s good for Labor.
nath @ Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 12:27 pm:
“This is the second time Macarthur has gone troppo over the issue and then meekly backed down after some criticism. He is treating PB like a therapy lounge.”
================
nath, “gone troppo”: (Nice PJK there, BTW.) Fair cop. I do get heated when I see messaging being propagated which I think does support for Ukraine a disservice.
“meekly backed down”: Or, came to my senses. You will notice, though, in my post to Andrew_Earlwood, that I re-stated my conviction that the views expressed by A_E and dave were wrong. I just apologised for having resorted to name-calling. Again, fair cop, I say.
“therapy lounge”: I wouldn’t know.
I’m curious now: do you agree with my views on boycotts of Russian culture, or moral misdirection against Western support for Ukraine’s military resistance?
Rex, by the same token Dan should think about resigning soon and go federal. Might have a shot at replacing Albo down the line. I think he should go for Maribyrnong.
Rex Douglas at 12:32 pm
Carmen Lawrence says “Hi Rex”
Macarthur says:
I’m curious: do you agree with my views on boycotts of Russian culture,
__________
Indeed I do. I have promised not to try an 8th attempt to read Dostoevsky’s The Idiot. In your honour of course.
nath @ Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 12:36 pm:
“Rex, by the same token Dan should think about resigning soon and go federal. Might have a shot at replacing Albo down the line. I think he should go for Maribyrnong.”
================
Drink! 😉
nath @ #1126 Thursday, December 29th, 2022 – 12:36 pm
Fed Labor don’t have the same problem in Vic as they have in Qld.
Not sure what will become of Dan. Maybe a spot on the Crown board is waiting …? 😆
poroti @ #1127 Thursday, December 29th, 2022 – 12:36 pm
Everyone likes Ana.
Rex Douglas says:
Not sure what will become of Dan. Maybe a spot on the Crown board is waiting …?
______
Surely not without Packer. I’m guessing Linfox and Visy board appointments. Just a lazy 700k a year or so to keep him happy. And get an upgrade into Portsea.
Ana for PM.
Good idea
https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/mcc-and-victoria-government-inquire-about-hosting-india-pakistan-test-at-the-mcg-1351523
nath @ #1133 Thursday, December 29th, 2022 – 12:44 pm
Sounds good. I hear they have handrails with their outdoor stairs in Portsea. 🙂
AI is growing increasingly sophisticated these days. What do you reckon Macarthur?
wranslide @ #1134 Thursday, December 29th, 2022 – 12:46 pm
the great thing about being a long term Premier who has done favors for people is that when you retire they all come back to you.
Rex Douglas says:
Sounds good. I hear they have handrails with their outdoor stairs in Portsea.
__________
And we do need the odd socialist in Portsea. He will still have one of the shittest houses there.
wranslide @ Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 12:49 pm:
“AI is growing increasingly sophisticated these days. What do you reckon Macarthur?”
======================
Umm … not my field?
“ The use of Dutton, Ley and Taylor, in particular, indicates the opposition is trying to move on quickly from the Morrison government and present a refreshed front bench.”
Seriously, what part of this grouping gives the impression of refreshed. Arguably, they do exactly the opposite and reflect the very reasons Australian voters rejected the Liberals.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/question-time-reveals-the-coalition-s-chosen-and-frozen-20221228-p5c94p.html
Rex: “Everyone likes Ana.”
‘Stacia’, if you please.
wranslide @ #1138 Thursday, December 29th, 2022 – 11:49 am
It’s still just statistics on steriods. Impressively good until it runs into something that doesn’t conform to its modeling, at which point it falls over in ways that are usually both completely bizarre and more blatantly wrong than anything a human might do.
Barney in Belair @ #1104 Thursday, December 29th, 2022 – 12:31 pm
🙂
Not for the faint-hearted but it shows why Sergey Lavrov is talking through his hat:
https://youtu.be/6hqlSfGZ4j0
“ I offer both you and dave my full apology and retraction of what I have said about you both.”
All good brother. Carry on.
Macarthur at 12.07 pm
According to Ukraine’s spy chief Kyryo Budanov Iran has not been re-supplying Russia with missiles. Budanov says there is currently a battlefield stalemate, unlikely to change soon. And:
“Away from the battlefields, Russia has carried out a relentless air campaign since mid-October, targeting Ukraine’s critical infrastructure with missiles and drones, leaving millions without electricity, heating and water. Mr Budanov said the strikes were likely to continue, but suggested Russia would not be able to sustain the level of the attacks because of dwindling missile reserves, and the inability of Russian industry to replenish them.
Although Iran has provided most of the drones used in Russia’s attacks, the spy chief says it has so far refused to deliver missiles to Russia, aware that Western countries are likely to impose measures on Tehran, already under crippling sanctions because of its nuclear programme.”
See: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64109024
Meanwhile Russian society is preparing, albeit “eventually”, for a historic defeat, according to this writer, Anna Ochkina, who hopes it will come sooner rather than later.
https://russiandissent.substack.com/p/the-bitterness-of-victory-the-sweetness
She says: “Coming to a dead end, and then marking it with a flag so that it may be easier for others to find the right path – this is not for Russians. We have never praised those who found a dead end.” Not in the sense she means, but in another, hugely tragic sense, yes. After all, when Stalin found the biggest dead end (tupik in Russian) of all he was glorified beyond belief.
@ Late Riser 1205
Concur LR.
I reckon the most apt comment you made is the one about Labor “hastening slowly”.
All going well, Labor should have another two terms. Calmly ,slowly but surely, Labor will change many things that need changing, without scaring anyone, denying ammunition for those knockers who claim the government is too slow; those who claim Lib/ Labor same same….
In the meanwhile, the Coalition rots from the head down and its voter base diminishes.
Best wishes for the new year Andrew_Earlwood. Onwards to a Labor victory.
Gettysburg1863 @ #1149 Thursday, December 29th, 2022 – 1:47 pm
‘Calmly, slowly’ doesn’t help those currently living in poverty and can’t afford rent.
Laura Norder being wooed today by Labor on both sides of the globe.
In the UK
Meanwhile in Quinceland.
Annastacia Palaszczuk@AnnastaciaMP
BREAKING: Violent juvenile car thieves will face more jail time and sentencing will be strengthened …..