Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July to December (open thread)

Relatively modest leads for the Coalition among Queenslanders, Christians and those 65-and-over, with Labor dominant everywhere else.

As it usually does on Boxing Day, The Australian has published quarterly aggregates of Newspoll with state and demographic breakdowns, on this occasion casting an unusually wide net from its polling all the way back to July to early this month, reflecting the relative infrequency of its results over this time. The result is a combined survey of 5771 respondents that finds Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (a swing of about 3.5% to Labor compared with the election), 57-43 in Victoria (about 2%), 55-45 in Western Australia (no change) and 57-43 in South Australia (a 4.0% swing), while trailing 51-49 in Queensland a 3% swing).

Gender breakdowns show only a slight gap, with Labor leading 54-46 among men and 56-44 among women, with the Greens as usual stronger among women among men. Age cohort results trend from 65-35 to Labor for 18-to-34 to 54-46 to the Coalition among 65-plus, with the Greens respectively on 24% and 3%. Little variation is recorded according to education or income, but Labor are strongest among part-time workers and weakest among the retired, stronger among non-English speakers but well ahead either way, and 62-38 ahead among those identifying as of no religion but 53-47 behind among Christians. You can find all the relevant data, at least for voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,276 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July to December (open thread)”

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  1. Dr Doolittle @ Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 1:46 pm:

    “Macarthur at 12.07 pm

    According to Ukraine’s spy chief Kyryo Budanov Iran has not been re-supplying Russia with missiles. Budanov says there is currently a battlefield stalemate, unlikely to change soon. And:

    “Away from the battlefields, Russia has carried out a relentless air campaign since mid-October, targeting Ukraine’s critical infrastructure with missiles and drones, leaving millions without electricity, heating and water. Mr Budanov said the strikes were likely to continue, but suggested Russia would not be able to sustain the level of the attacks because of dwindling missile reserves, and the inability of Russian industry to replenish them.

    Although Iran has provided most of the drones used in Russia’s attacks, the spy chief says it has so far refused to deliver missiles to Russia, aware that Western countries are likely to impose measures on Tehran, already under crippling sanctions because of its nuclear programme.””
    ======================

    Dr D, this much is good at least. If Tehran has been amenable to reason over missiles, there is hope they can be as well over drones. Time for the West to amp up the voltage on Tehran over drones now.

  2. James masola triying his best to pve spin on Dutton im shore he will apose the voice after all he still apozis the apoligi tothat Rudd gave sayingwhen he became leader he regrets the sybalizm of not acsepting it before going on a rant in defence of the cashlis welfaire card acusing aboriginals ofdemestick violents and sexualizing woman TAyler was energy minister under morrison and Susan ley is only still in parliament thanks to morrison but sepozidly thats re fresh off course Dutton is sidelining cheester he is a back bencher after all and litleproud is prominant as he is basickly deputy

  3. Ran slide wonder when media will pick up in N S W liberals saying one thing to western sydney and an other with the teel seats Mattt kean made a stunt where he promised a 75 persent renewable energy targit but un like Cris bowen gave us no details on how it would be achieved while in western sydney to triy and retain penrith perottit said he does not care if plants get distroyed buy the damb wall raising which unfortunatly the people of penrith dont caire abbout

  4. One day not so long ago one of the resident muppets had a shot as a range of successful young women. I was going to do a long reply at the time but wrote it off as a poor investment of time, a pearls before swine thing.

    But here is an hilarious little highlight: https://youtu.be/FfAXGqrdR4w

  5. plus after perrottit with much fan fair got his land tax to replace stamp duty toget moore money out of first home buyer s said it was about choice he has not mentiond it since the Nsw liberals seemed to have adopted morrisons dead cat stratigy and spinn in order to winn must be Yarin finklestiens influence plus the liberals have found nothing in there stunt surrounding banks town mayor

  6. My son said Andrew Tate is a dick and you’d have to be brain dead to follow him. So, WWP, not all of us, and our family members, here are ‘swine’. You aren’t the only enlightened being on the blog.

  7. In the wake of the events on Boxing Day at North Lakes, these are the Queensland government’s proposed legislative changes to the Youth Justice Act and/or the Criminal Code & other initiatives:

    [‘Increasing the maximum penalty for stealing a car from 7 years to 10 years’ imprisonment;

    A more severe penalty of 14 years if the offence is committed at night, where the offender uses violence or threatens violence, is armed or pretends to be armed, is in company or damages or threatens to damage any property;

    Amend the Youth Justice Act requiring courts to take into account previous bail history, criminal activity and track record when sentencing;

    Increased penalties for criminals who have boasted about these crimes on social media;

    Extreme High Visibility Police Patrols;

    A $9.89 million fast-track sentencing program in Brisbane, Townsville, Southport and Cairns so children spend less time on remand and more time serving their sentences;

    The construction of two new youth detention centres;

    A trial of engine immobilisers in Mt Isa, Cairns and Townsville;

    The appointment within QPS of Assistant Commissioner to the position of Youth Crime Taskforce Commander; and

    The increased penalties [will apply to adult as well as juvenile offenders.’] – SMH

    In my experience, most juveniles & many older felons don’t consider the consequences of their criminal activities. I know something needs to be done but I’m not sure increased penalties are the answer. I’m off to read Dostoevsky’s “Crime and Punishment”. No offence, Macarthur.

  8. There are plenty of “leaned articles” claiming Russia needs its buffer zone.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-r7z0lM5_k&ab_channel=AnthonyPompliano
    They don’t seem to stop and wonder if the buffer zone wants to be a buffer zone.
    Another problem with the buffer zone theory, you no longer have to get close to stuff a country up.

    If you argue that it is all USA’s fault you are arguing that a nation on the other side of a ocean can stuff a nation up. A buffer zone did not help much.

    Look at what has done the most damage to Ukraine, missiles launched hundreds of km within Russia’s borders. Worked well until Ukraine stated blowing up planes hundreds of miles away.

    This war will create three losers.
    -Russia. Russia will have no army when this is finished. All the stuff they inherited from the USSR is now scrap or is being scraped. Further they have squandered the opportunity created for by Angela Merkel. The problems they had thirty years ago still remain and this time there will be no Angela Merkel.
    -Ukraine. It will get rebuilt using the money left over from the opportunity created by Angela Merkel.
    -Angela Merkel’s legacy is trashed. Unfair I think. Trade will always be the way to end Russia’s isolation.

    -It is not the west’s fault the buffer zone does not want to be a buffer zone.
    -It is not the west’s fault that Russia has squandered the opportunity Angela Merkel created.

  9. Mavis

    “ In my experience, most juveniles & many older felons don’t consider the consequences of their criminal activities. I know something needs to be done but I’m not sure increased penalties are the answer.”

    Agreed, increased penalties are an answer but are rarely THE answer. They satiate the Murdochracy’s lust for punishment but rarely result in a diminishing of criminal activity. Penalties could be be trebled but to no avail.

  10. I don’t know but it seems to me that the three locations for the trial:

    (a) contain high proportions of Indigenous people
    (b) have had, or have, active efforts to leverage politically off criminal behaviours by Indigenous youth
    (c) have had, or have, active efforts to leverage politically off crimes alleged to have been committed while on bail or while on good behaviour bonds.

    From direct personal experience older children will suborn below criminal age children to engage in the break ins/petty thefts.

    In several instances deaths of innocent third parties (particularly if they are female and mothers) have been highly (and IMO somewhat disproportionately) publicized by the MSM.


  11. Lars Von Trier says:
    Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 2:57 pm

    Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime?


    Tying to drive people dependent on social welfare into the ground shows an amazing lack of consideration of the causes of petty crime.

    Sending someone to jail is expansive, about $80,000 a year but for the someone it does provide food and bed. There are cheaper options.

  12. Not sure what the point is in Italy requiring Chinese flight passengers to undertake covid testing given that Italy’s borders can be crossed by train or vehicle from France, Austria, Switzerland and Slovenia without any checks.

  13. Again, speaking of someone who had threatened to murder me but who got around to murdering someone else first, the fact that the perp was locked away for a lengthy period was a nice, safe outcome.
    The point is that, for as long as offenders are locked up, they can’t offend.

  14. Much, perhaps most, petty crime is not driven by need (other than when recreational drug use is the motivator).

    Most of it is driven by utter boredom. In which case a bit of a chase, a capture, an appearance before the beak, some time out on bail telling tall stories, followed by a couple of weeks inside meeting interesting people combine to create a bit of motivation to engage in petty crime.

  15. frednk @ Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 2:54 pm:

    “There are plenty of “leaned articles” claiming Russia needs its buffer zone…
    They don’t seem to stop and wonder if the buffer zone wants to be a buffer zone.
    Another problem with the buffer zone theory, you no longer have to get close to stuff a country up.”
    ==========================

    frednk, thanks for this, spot on. Where does Russia’s “buffer zone” end? Remember, back in the Cold War, Russia regarded Czechoslovakia and Hungary as being integral parts of their “buffer zone”. With today’s long-range strike capability, I can’t see them being satisfied even with that extent going forward, if they are conceded that unique geopolitical right.

  16. ‘poroti says:
    Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 3:17 pm

    Yoof crime, ‘Boerwar Boot Camps’® , that’ll sort them out.’
    —————————————–
    Verbaling is not limited to the courts, I notice.

  17. ISW’s assessment of Russian threats to escalate to a real conflict with NATO over the provision of US Patriot missile defence systems is basically that such threats are empty. They reason thus:

    “The Kremlin continues to present the US transfer of Patriot air defense systems and accompanying trainers to Ukraine as an escalation in US-Russia relations, despite the fact that the transfer is if anything less escalatory than previous Western military shipments to Ukraine because Patriot is a purely defensive system. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed in a televised interview on December 28 that US officials had guaranteed to not send Patriot air defense trainers to Ukraine in an effort to refrain from participating in the war. The Kremlin has previously highlighted the US transfer of Patriot air-defense systems in accusations that the United States and the West are waging a proxy war in Ukraine with the intent of weakening or destroying the Russian Federation. The Kremlin uses these accusations in support of information operations that aim to frame Ukraine as a Western puppet devoid of sovereignty and to weaken Western security assistance to Ukraine by stoking fears of Russian escalation. The Kremlin could use any Western transfer of military equipment to Ukraine as support for these information operations. The Kremlin’s decision to react to the transfer of the Patriot air defense systems more strongly than to previous weapons transfers indicates that the Kremlin is more concerned with the effect Western help can have on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine than with supposed Russian fears of putative Ukrainian offensive actions against the Russian Federation itself using Western systems. That observation is worth considering in the context of Western discussions of providing Ukraine with Western tanks, long-range attack systems, and other capabilities.

    ISW forecasts with high confidence that Putin will not seek to engage NATO militarily at this time in response to the provision of any of the Western military systems currently under discussion. Russia is barely holding off the Ukrainian military at a fearful cost to itself and Russian forces in Ukraine could not survive a serious conflict with NATO at this time. The risks of deliberate Russian escalation to a major conflict with NATO in the foreseeable future are thus extremely low.”

    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-28

  18. Smith bowling and gets the final wicket and we win by innings + 182 – and to think SAF were no 2 in the world a fortnight ago.

  19. Where does Russia’s “buffer zone” end?

    From all accounts draw a line from Kaliningrad down through Poland, taking in parts of Romania and Bulgaria down to the Black sea.
    Include Lituania, Latvia and Estonia to the North and because they are no longer neutral if they join Nato include Finland and potentially Sweden.
    That’s what Putin thinks is a “buffer”.
    From what I’ve heard NATO is now is a position where Ukraine MUST win, if Ukraine folds Putin will start moving further west to take more of his “buffer”. If it comes down to a conventional war between Nato and Russia it’s now obvious that NATO would roll up the Russians in a matter of a few weeks at most. Prior to invading Ukraine NATO’s estimation of Russia was that it was a foe to be reckoned with, now, Russia’s military is considered to be a joke at best.
    If NATO does go head to head with Russia then it’s almost now assured to go nuclear within a month or two or the Russians will be forced to capitulate (which I can’t see happening).

  20. GoldenSmaug @ Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 3:50 pm:
    ========================

    Can’t fault any of that analysis, especially the imperative for NATO that Ukraine win. Except perhaps the prospects of anyone going nuclear, which I see as, to all intents and purposes, zero.

  21. Cronus:

    Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 2:54 pm

    Mavis

    “ In my experience, most juveniles & many older felons don’t consider the consequences of their criminal activities. I know something needs to be done but I’m not sure increased penalties are the answer.”

    [‘Agreed, increased penalties are an answer but are rarely THE answer. They satiate the Murdochracy’s lust for punishment but rarely result in a diminishing of criminal activity. Penalties could be trebled but to no avail.’]

    The CM & Bulletin have the alleged murder of Ms. Lovell & the alleged attempted murder of her partner on their front pages today, so, yes, the Murdoch rags appear to be the driving force behind increasing penalties & other measures aimed at reducing juvenile crime.

    If, for instance, a 15-year-old is gaoled for 10 years for stealing a car with circumstances of aggravation (eg, at night, in company, armed with a weapon), when eventually released, it can be almost guaranteed that he/she will turn out worse than when first gaoled. And as I said, I really don’t know what the answers are, other than the sentencing consideration of retribution, which is quite understandable.

    I don’t know the facts of the case cited above but the rule of thumb is that if you can escape the scene of a burglary, do just that, particularly at night; for if they know you’re home, they mean business. Also, a dog is usually a very effective deterrent & provides an early warning. I’d add that the crime of murder when entering a dwelling with intent to commit an indictable offence is fairly rare in suburban Brisbane.

  22. Anyone who thinks Annastacia Palaszczuk is a popular leader in Qld is badly misreading the situation (IMHO).

    Henry Palaszczuk was a much respected MP from 1984 to 2006 mostly in the ultra safe seat of Inala. Henry had been a popular local MP and competent, if not outstanding, Minister in the Beattie government. He was never close to the centre of power in the party or in Cabinet but managed to fashion a place for himself as a relatively junior Minister. On Henry’s retirement in 2006 his daughter, Annastacia, walked into his seat on his coat tails.

    In time, Annastacia also secured a place on the periphery of the Bligh Cabinet although never one of the “players” close to the centre of power.

    Then, in 2012, Campbell Newman happened.
    The previously unelectable LNP opposition drafted Campbell in as leader even though he was not even a member of Parliament. Obviously, the move was lauded by the Murdochracy et al and he was presented to the electorate as their saviour.
    The people of Qld jumped at the chance to dump the despised Anna Bligh and the Labor govt was routed.

    Labor were left with only 7 members, down from 51 (of 89) in the previous parliament.
    While Anna Bligh was narrowly re-elected she immediately announced her retirement from politics leaving only half a dozen Labor members to choose a new leader. Only 3 of the six had any ministerial experience at all and none had been among the movers and shakers of the former govt.

    Annastacia found herself elected as opposition leader almost by default, but no-one expected Labor to be a serious prospect to govern for at least two or three more terms.

    But history shows that Campbell Newman proved to be an absolute disaster as Premier and his government was thrown from office at the first opportunity.

    Suddenly, in 2015, Annastacia found herself as the unexpected and practically unknown Premier of Queensland. Her government has since been elected for a third term because the electorate see no other option.
    Many Qlders now see Annastacia as barely competent and highly dishonest and untrustworthy.
    She badly mismanaged the pandemic response and is well and truly in the pocket of the fossil fuel and other vested interests. Her government is diabolically weak on crime, especially youth crime. She and her Cabinet have become arrogant and contemptuous of the electors.

    Her perceived “popularity” comes from the fact that the vast majority of the population see the opposition as grossly incompetent, thoroughly corrupt (even more than Labor) and totally unelectable. Just as bad, if not worse, than the oppositions in Vic and WA.
    That leaves Annastacia, for the time being, as the only game in town.

    If the opposition do get their act together and draft in some credible players to lead them out of the wilderness (unlikely I know), Annastacia will be gleefully thrown out as was Anna Bligh. Until then she has an open goal.
    Rant over! Sorry for the long read if you got through it.

  23. So, Minns reckons Gladys did a stellar job managing Covid. Not sure Victorians would agree with that.

    Minns also voted against VAD laws.

    NSW voters don’t have much on offer with Perrotet and Minns.

  24. Cronussays:
    Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 2:54 pm
    Mavis
    “ In my experience, most juveniles & many older felons don’t consider the consequences of their criminal activities. I know something needs to be done but I’m not sure increased penalties are the answer.”

    Agreed, increased penalties are an answer but are rarely THE answer. They satiate the Murdochracy’s lust for punishment but rarely result in a diminishing of criminal activity. Penalties could be be trebled but to no avail.
    =================================================
    Yes, the changes announced today are mere window dressing offered to assuage the outrage flowing from the callous murder of a young mother (and attempted murder of her husband) by a group of 17 year olds during a home invasion robbery in Brisbane.

    Increasing the penalty is useless when the murderous young thugs never get to trial anyway. Always released within hours and never brought to justice despite numerous repeat offences. Our justice system is completely broken. Thanks Annastacia!

  25. ‘WeWantPaul says:
    Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 2:31 pm

    One day not so long ago one of the resident muppets had a shot as a range of successful young women. I was going to do a long reply at the time but wrote it off as a poor investment of time, a pearls before swine thing.
    ….’
    ——————-
    Two goes at personal abuse combined with smarmy self-gratulation at such wonderful self-restraint.

    Internet Hero!

    This is the masterful poster who ran off when he who got toweled for not understanding that the ‘U’ in Universal Basic Income stood for ‘Universal’ not ‘Partial’.

  26. e.g.w. says:
    Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 4:29 pm

    Cronussays:
    Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 2:54 pm
    Mavis
    “ In my experience, most juveniles & many older felons don’t consider the consequences of their criminal activities. I know something needs to be done but I’m not sure increased penalties are the answer.”

    Agreed, increased penalties are an answer but are rarely THE answer. They satiate the Murdochracy’s lust for punishment but rarely result in a diminishing of criminal activity. Penalties could be be trebled but to no avail.
    =================================================
    Yes, the changes announced today are mere window dressing offered to assuage the outrage flowing from the callous murder of a young mother (and attempted murder of her husband) by a group of 17 year olds during a home invasion robbery in Brisbane.

    Increasing the penalty is useless when the murderous young thugs never get to trial anyway. Always released within hours and never brought to justice despite numerous repeat offences. Our justice system is completely broken. Thanks Annastacia!

    ==================================
    Don’t let the facts get in the way of a pathetic fact-free attempt at trolling, e.g.w.

  27. e.g.w.:

    Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 4:06 pm

    I think your critique is close to the mark other than underestimating Palaszczuk. I personally think she’ll throw the towel in perhaps a year before the election (due October ’24) so as to give her replacement (probably Miles or Dick) time to shine, which shouldn’t be difficult due to Crisafulli’s low profile other than on the Goldie.

  28. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 3:05 pm
    Cronus
    “The worst percentages for infectious Covid sufferers would have to be China, ATM. That would be some sort of reasonable point.”

    All good as long as everyone does it otherwise however, it’s pointless. It would be more effective for European countries if all European countries do it but if most don’t then covid, as it has done, will just sail on through regardless.

  29. Whether it be Palaszczuk or Dan Andrews, leaders can only defeat the opponents pitted against them. It’s not a popularity game but voters still have to make a choice and in both cases, three wins each against their opponents is everything their supporters asked for. Very few political leaders are simply popular but if they’re repeatedly elected then there’s a fair chance they’re effective. Not sure how else to objectively assess them.

  30. I have no idea who Andrew Tate is, but if he can harness that small dick energy, it sounds like we might be looking at a dead end for fusion.

  31. Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 4:33 pm
    e.g.w. says:
    Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 4:29 pm
    ……..
    =================================================
    Yes, the changes announced today are mere window dressing offered to assuage the outrage flowing from the callous murder of a young mother (and attempted murder of her husband) by a group of 17 year olds during a home invasion robbery in Brisbane.
    ==================================
    Don’t let the facts get in the way of a pathetic fact-free attempt at trolling, e.g.w.
    =========================================
    Just because you don’t agree with me, BW, does not make me a troll.
    I describe the situation as I see it, and you have no idea of what I have seen and experienced.
    I have also observed your posting behaviour over an extended period and I find you calling me out as a troll a bit rich. Have a good day.

  32. e.g.w

    ‘…
    Increasing the penalty is useless when the murderous young thugs never get to trial anyway. Always released within hours and never brought to justice despite numerous repeat offences. Our justice system is completely broken. Thanks Annastacia!
    ….’
    —————————————
    So,when did murderous young thugs never get to trial.
    When are the ALWAYS released within hours.
    When are the NEVER brought to justice.
    keep up the bullshitting, EGW.
    You are intent on slagging the Queensland Premier.
    Nothing more. Nothing less.

  33. Mavissays:
    Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 4:40 pm
    e.g.w.:
    Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 4:06 pm
    I think your critique is close to the mark other than underestimating Palaszczuk. I personally think she’ll throw the towel in perhaps a year before the election (due October ’24) so as to give her replacement (probably Miles or Dick) time to shine, which shouldn’t be difficult due to Crisafulli’s low profile other than on the Goldie.
    ============================================================
    Thanks Mavis,
    I did have the opportunity to observe the Bligh Government at close quarters for some time, including Annastacia for a short time prior to 2012, so I think I know a little bit about some of the players.
    You might well be right about future moves.
    I think Dick is probably the best of what they have available.
    I’ll be surprised if Chrisafulli is still in the OL chair come Oct 24 though.

  34. BEIJING–Half of China’s 1.4 billion people will be infected by the novel coronavirus in the coming months, analysts said, based on trends seen after the government eased its “zero COVID-19” policy earlier this month.

    How many deaths will result 1m or 50 m?
    What will be the impact of Chinas economy collapsing ?

  35. I’ve just been to the Op Shop to drop off a bag of clothes, and yes, the place was filled with young ‘uns looking for safari suits to wear to their NYE party on Saturday night. 😀

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