Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July to December (open thread)

Relatively modest leads for the Coalition among Queenslanders, Christians and those 65-and-over, with Labor dominant everywhere else.

As it usually does on Boxing Day, The Australian has published quarterly aggregates of Newspoll with state and demographic breakdowns, on this occasion casting an unusually wide net from its polling all the way back to July to early this month, reflecting the relative infrequency of its results over this time. The result is a combined survey of 5771 respondents that finds Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (a swing of about 3.5% to Labor compared with the election), 57-43 in Victoria (about 2%), 55-45 in Western Australia (no change) and 57-43 in South Australia (a 4.0% swing), while trailing 51-49 in Queensland a 3% swing).

Gender breakdowns show only a slight gap, with Labor leading 54-46 among men and 56-44 among women, with the Greens as usual stronger among women among men. Age cohort results trend from 65-35 to Labor for 18-to-34 to 54-46 to the Coalition among 65-plus, with the Greens respectively on 24% and 3%. Little variation is recorded according to education or income, but Labor are strongest among part-time workers and weakest among the retired, stronger among non-English speakers but well ahead either way, and 62-38 ahead among those identifying as of no religion but 53-47 behind among Christians. You can find all the relevant data, at least for voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,276 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July to December (open thread)”

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  1. The challenge in law & order is getting the balance right because its easy to arrest and put people into jail but we also know that jail just breeds hardened criminals because some people are only good at being criminal and we also know that young people do dumb things and many grow out of it but its only in hindsight that we know who will become a repeat offender and who has just stuffed up and there was a time when murder and rape carried the death penalty but it didn’t stop those crimes being committed.

  2. Max @ 6.38am
    And when you turn to the relevant table of voting intentions by age – the older cohort, which I inhabit, shows a 4% swing to the ALP.
    Obviously, the work experience headline/byline writer hadn’t read the report, from which the headline derived.

  3. Max @ 6.38am
    And when you turn to the relevant table of voting intentions by age – the older cohort, which I inhabit, shows a 4% swing to the ALP.
    Obviously, the work experience headline/byline writer hadn’t read the report, from which the headline derived.

  4. Wouldn’t be surprised to hear in the next few months that Putin has fallen out of an open window ( a very high one) & that Xi Jinping dies of Covid

  5. “My son said Andrew Tate is a dick and you’d have to be brain dead to follow him. So, WWP, not all of us, and our family members, here are ‘swine’. You aren’t the only enlightened being on the blog.”

    My point was that A person here had taken a pot shot at a number of successful prominent young women. I am sorry but I wasn’t thinking of you at all Cat. Have you taken a completely unnecessarily, factually inaccurate, nasty and mean spirited pot shot at young successful women, *shrugs IDK* but it doesn’t seem your style?

  6. Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 5:06 pm
    e.g.w
    ‘…
    Increasing the penalty is useless when the murderous young thugs never get to trial anyway. Always released within hours and never brought to justice despite numerous repeat offences. Our justice system is completely broken. Thanks Annastacia!
    ….’
    —————————————
    So,when did murderous young thugs never get to trial.
    When are the ALWAYS released within hours.
    When are the NEVER brought to justice.
    keep up the bullshitting, EGW.
    You are intent on slagging the Queensland Premier.
    Nothing more. Nothing less.
    ============================================================
    Sadly, I have direct knowledge of numerous examples.
    I concede I did generalise using “always” and “never” instead of “frequently” and “rarely”.
    But I stand by the sentiment.
    No bullshitting there.
    As for my view of AP; its my genuine assessment of her. Am I not entitled to my opinion?
    And am I not entitled to express it?

    At least I am not prone to endless repeatative snipes at people I disapprove of.

    Note: 7 News today in respect of the murder of Emma Lovell:-
    The shocking criminal history of two teens accused of murdering a Queensland mum in a home invasion can be revealed, as social media posts highlight their brazen antics as part of a gang partaking in joyrides in stolen cars.
    The two teens had their matters heard in Brisbane Children’s Court on Wednesday after being charged with the murder of North Lakes woman Emma Lovell and the attempted murder of her husband Lee Lovell on Boxing Day night.
    They cannot be named for legal reasons.
    7NEWS understands one of the boys was responsible for the stabbing of a man in his St Lucia home in Brisbane last year.
    The then 15-year-old was charged with attempted murder, was sentenced and has since been released from custody.
    It is also understood one of the boys was arrested on Christmas Eve this year and charged with multiple offences.
    He was released on bail despite police objections on Boxing Day, hours before he allegedly stabbed Emma Lovell to death.
    On Wednesday, it was also revealed two other teen boys – aged 17 and 16 – who were under investigation over the alleged murder of Lovell are facing stealing charges related to a separate incident on the afternoon of Boxing Day, December 26.
    They have been released on bail ahead of their appearance in Brisbane Children’s Court at a later date.
    The social media profiles of the boys show multiple posts of them and associates travelling in high speeds in stolen cars.
    Multiple members of their families have called for them to be “free”, on social media posts.

    I suppose you think the above is evidence of a justice system working perfectly.
    I happen to disagree with you. Get over it.

  7. The thing that strikes me as the biggest problem in properly tackling law and order issues is the political negatives of using positive reinforcement.

    Crims or potential crims can’t have good things or have a nice time under any circumstances because the public (or at least a vocal enough portion of the public) rail against public funds going to TVs or swimming pools for the undeserving or whatever.

    But if we were actually serious about tackling youth crime, of any persuasion, we’d be spending money on setting up not-awful places where young people can hang out and feel safe and stimulated and be looked after – no strings attached or questions asked. And obviously young people getting involved in bad stuff need to feel like they have options so they can make better choices.

    That’s not to be soft on crime, and it’s not to rule out punitive measures; but only focusing on negative penalties to try to correct behaviour is to miss a large part of how to induce change.

    Kids making unhelpful choices and doing bad things should suffer consequences, hopefully on some sort of sliding scale that doesn’t immediately revolve around incarceration. Kids who have done bad things but start to turn their life around should be rewarded for making better choices. And kids should never feel like they have nowhere to go or have nothing to lose.

  8. “I suppose you think the above is evidence of a justice system working perfectly.
    I happen to disagree with you. Get over it.”

    The law and order stuff we get from RWFWs is usually pretty bad but it isn’t usually about locking up children. If you want to lock up children and throw away the key, then the problem is definitely you.

  9. Seems like The Age & The Sydney Morning Herald have been conned by some pretend academic, who seems like an ancient Stalinist, giving them half a page of Soviet, pro-Putin propaganda, masquerading as an informed opinion piece regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
    Bit of a change from the usual right-wing opinion they have been publishing since the Costello takeover.
    Sucked in, folks!

  10. Jackol
    We tried the strict boys homes for difficult kids and all it did was create generations of hardened crims that now fill true crime shows books and podcasts.

  11. egw’s view of the justice seems to be fully formed via Channel7 and the rest of the msm.

    Just apply rope and get some strangle fruit.

    Queenslanders hey. …

    Can’t work out whether they are Californians or Alabamans. …

  12. “But if we were actually serious about tackling youth crime, of any persuasion, we’d be spending money on setting up not-awful places where young people can hang out and feel safe and stimulated and be looked after – no strings attached or questions asked. And obviously young people getting involved in bad stuff need to feel like they have options so they can make better choices.”

    100% if you’ve got children committing serious crimes, then the problem is you (in the broad societal sense). There is a price to pay for never closing the gap, and a bigger price for not trying.

  13. e.g.w. says:
    Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 5:48 pm
    ‘….

    I suppose you think the above is evidence of a justice system working perfectly.
    ….’
    ———————
    Nice shift of the goal posts there straight out to straw man country. Hee Haw, e.g.w!

    Feeling aggrieved at being sprung on your absolute 100% statements and linking them to a drive-by slag of the Queensland Premier?

  14. WeWantPaul @ #1208 Thursday, December 29th, 2022 – 5:55 pm

    “I suppose you think the above is evidence of a justice system working perfectly.
    I happen to disagree with you. Get over it.”

    The law and order stuff we get from RWFWs is usually pretty bad but it isn’t usually about locking up children. If you want to lock up children and throw away the key, then the problem is definitely you.

    We don’t have a justice system, we have a legal system.

  15. I take it from the relaxed discussion here that most posters have never ever suffered the direct personal consequences of youth crimes.

  16. The obvious solution is to legalize recreational drugs and to provide them free to youth who would otherwise be bored into petty crime. Psychotic episodes and the like would add interest to life and therefore be part of the plan to stop youth engaging in petty crimes.

  17. Expecting perfect justice from a justice system is like expecting the UBI to fix all government to individual transfer issues. Nirvana might just happen. But it is unlikely.

  18. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 6:21 pm
    The obvious solution is to legalize recreational drugs and to provide them free to youth who would otherwise be bored into petty crime. Psychotic episodes and the like would add interest to life and therefore be part of the plan to stop youth engaging in petty crimes.
    ________________________________________
    First it was the disabled lesbian with 10 kids on welfare and now this , personally I am worried about what you have been consuming Boer this holiday season. Maybe one of the grandkids has slipped you a disco bikkie or two?

  19. WeWantPaul @ #1205 Thursday, December 29th, 2022 – 5:48 pm

    “My son said Andrew Tate is a dick and you’d have to be brain dead to follow him. So, WWP, not all of us, and our family members, here are ‘swine’. You aren’t the only enlightened being on the blog.”

    My point was that A person here had taken a pot shot at a number of successful prominent young women. I am sorry but I wasn’t thinking of you at all Cat. Have you taken a completely unnecessarily, factually inaccurate, nasty and mean spirited pot shot at young successful women, *shrugs IDK* but it doesn’t seem your style?

    It’s too easy on blogs like this to take a sentence where the previous context is unclear and generalise it out to cover all. I was simply meaning to comment to the effect that not all young men slavishly follow that Andrew Tate goon nor believe the vile things he says about strong women (who probably wouldn’t go near his steroidally small dick with a barge pole 😉 ) because those young men have strong mothers on this blog who have brought them up to properly respect strong women as their equals. 🙂

    I was merely riffing off Andrew Tate, more than your comment which highlighted his entirely predictable pot shot. Peace! 🙂

  20. *Sigh* Not everyone who consumes cannabis has a psychotic episode. In fact, the number who do is vanishingly small. I don’t know how often I have to say this. 🙄

  21. No-one has asserted that everyone consuming cannabis has a pyschotic episode. Straw man.
    ‘Vanishingly small’ is not supported by the evidence.
    ‘Significant’ would be more accurate.

  22. p

    You have provided yet another excellent argument for legalizing cannabis and supplying it free of charge to young people. The only real question seems to be the age at which free cannabis should be handed out.

    Kindergarten playlunch additive?

    Too young?

    Should free cannabis be coupled with the totally arbitrary age of adult responsibility?

    Should police carry bags around with them and hand them out to youth engaged in petty criminal acts with an admonishment that next time they will get twice as much cannabis?

  23. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 5:58 pm
    egw’s view of the justice seems to be fully formed via Channel7 and the rest of the msm.
    Just apply rope and get some strangle fruit.
    Queenslanders hey. …
    Can’t work out whether they are Californians or Alabamans. …
    ======================================
    Remarkable what some seem to be able to deduce from scant information.
    As it happens, I rarely watch Channels 7,9,10 and only occasionally 2; and mainly only for sport when I do.
    I haven’t bought a newspaper in 15 years.
    I try to access more reliable and diverse sources of info.
    The Channel 7 article I stumbled on when googling “Emma Lovell” to get info to answer another query. It just happened to fit the bill for the moment.
    My views of the justice/legal system have been formed largely by my own direct observations.
    I also count more than a few police officers and lawyers and victims of crime amongst my friends so have some second hand but informed views over many decades to add to those.

    As for Queenslanders; they are not an homogenous group. They are neither Californians nor Alabamans. Mostly they a just decent, honest folk who want to be able to live their lives in peace and security without having to worry about being murdered in their beds at night.

    Perhaps if you challenged the ideas rather than personally attack the writer you might do better.

  24. p
    Exactly right. It must be both. Recreational drugs are well known to be safe especially with harm minimization and are a must for pain relief and other forms of ‘self-medication’. They will both work excellently well in treating self-medicating youth suffering from being forced into petty crime out of boredom.

  25. Tom @ #1214 Thursday, December 29th, 2022 – 5:15 pm

    WeWantPaul @ #1208 Thursday, December 29th, 2022 – 5:55 pm

    “I suppose you think the above is evidence of a justice system working perfectly.
    I happen to disagree with you. Get over it.”

    The law and order stuff we get from RWFWs is usually pretty bad but it isn’t usually about locking up children. If you want to lock up children and throw away the key, then the problem is definitely you.

    We don’t have a justice system, we have a legal system.

    The law as defined by parliament defines what the community regards as justice. The courts are meant to deliver justice according to that law.

    If there are defects in those processes we need to fix them.

    The problem seems to always be with cases not adequately defined but almost by definition there will always be such cases Moral panic does not help in that endeavour

  26. e.g.w is the victim here. Just ask e.g.w.

    Fancy people calling him out on the following absolute tripe:

    ‘Increasing the penalty is useless when the murderous young thugs never get to trial anyway. Always released within hours and never brought to justice despite numerous repeat offences. Our justice system is completely broken.’

    This spray naturally caused e.g.w to finish off with ‘Thanks Annastacia!’

    Perhaps it e.g.w’s legal and police friends or his friendly victims of crime who fooled him into writing the above crap? Such authorative sources!

    e.g.w subsequently had a couple of attempts at changing the goalposts and at claiming to be the victim of personal attacks while explaining he really did not mean what he wrote in the first place.

    e.g.w can dish it out to the Queensland Premier on the basis of that odious bullshit. But please do not call him out for being a bullshitter. It hurts his feelings when all he was trying to do was state the well-known facts.

  27. Lars
    Have you seen the State papers released by the Republic in the lead up to the 25th anniversary of Good Friday?
    Some commentary here:
    https://www.irishtimes.com/history/2022/12/28/prince-andrew-predicted-the-rise-of-sinn-fein-and-8-other-curious-tales-from-the-state-papers/
    3 interesting snippets
    1. Demographers on both sides estimated Catholics would not outnumber Protestants until 2051 (just 30 years out). The negotiators could kick the constitutional question down the road with meaningless platitudes, as 55 years is outside a useful planning period (and their lifespans)
    2. Politicians on both sides felt that Sinn Féin would always be a marginal party because of the long shadow of the gunman. Diplomats from Dublin laughed at Prince Andrew when he said the agreement would result in SF governments
    3. Boris Johnson, then a journalist, told Dublin sources that the two governments should go hard on the IRA as a military solution was possible and desirable. The Irish sources were astounded by his ignorance of the North.

  28. Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 6:13 pm
    e.g.w. says:
    Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 5:48 pm
    ‘….
    I suppose you think the above is evidence of a justice system working perfectly.
    ….’
    ———————
    Nice shift of the goal posts there straight out to straw man country. Hee Haw, e.g.w!

    Feeling aggrieved at being sprung on your absolute 100% statements and linking them to a drive-by slag of the Queensland Premier?
    ===========================================================
    Mate, if you think I have moved the goal posts, you have completely missed the point of my post (straw man accusation is spurious).
    No grief either about being called out on the absolutism of my statements. I stood up and acknowledged that straight away, fair cop, no argument from me.
    As for the alleged drive by slag of AP; no drive by mate and not really slagging. I just called her out for what she is/does in my opinion.
    Disagree with me if you like.

  29. Tomsays:
    Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 6:15 pm
    WeWantPaul @ #1208 Thursday, December 29th, 2022 – 5:55 pm

    “I suppose you think the above is evidence of a justice system working perfectly.
    I happen to disagree with you. Get over it.”

    The law and order stuff we get from RWFWs is usually pretty bad but it isn’t usually about locking up children. If you want to lock up children and throw away the key, then the problem is definitely you.

    We don’t have a justice system, we have a legal system.
    ===============================================
    Hi Tom,
    Point taken.
    The system (whatever it is called) still ain’t working.

  30. e.g.w
    A perfect system of justice as the contradisctinction to the lies you were peddling about a ‘totally broken system’ is, of course, a straw man.
    The reality is that the vast majority of youth do not break laws, steal cars, go for joy rides or stab people to death.
    Further, the vast majority of people do not get stabbed to death or run over by a stolen car.
    You engaged in some bullshit absolutist statements and used them to slag the Queensland Premier. ‘Thank you Anastacia!’ Gormless stuff!
    You shifted the goal posts. You set up a straw man. You claimed authority – friends, coppers and victims.
    Being called out on all this trash you reverted to whining about being the victim of posters who were no arguing the facts.
    Irony free stuff, considering your opening burst!
    Sprung, and you don’t like it one little bit.

  31. e.g.w. @ #1181 Thursday, December 29th, 2022 – 3:06 pm

    Anyone who thinks Annastacia Palaszczuk is a popular leader in Qld is badly misreading the situation (IMHO).

    Henry Palaszczuk was a much respected MP from 1984 to 2006 mostly in the ultra safe seat of Inala. Henry had been a popular local MP and competent, if not outstanding, Minister in the Beattie government. He was never close to the centre of power in the party or in Cabinet but managed to fashion a place for himself as a relatively junior Minister. On Henry’s retirement in 2006 his daughter, Annastacia, walked into his seat on his coat tails.

    In time, Annastacia also secured a place on the periphery of the Bligh Cabinet although never one of the “players” close to the centre of power.

    Then, in 2012, Campbell Newman happened.
    The previously unelectable LNP opposition drafted Campbell in as leader even though he was not even a member of Parliament. Obviously, the move was lauded by the Murdochracy et al and he was presented to the electorate as their saviour.
    The people of Qld jumped at the chance to dump the despised Anna Bligh and the Labor govt was routed.

    Labor were left with only 7 members, down from 51 (of 89) in the previous parliament.
    While Anna Bligh was narrowly re-elected she immediately announced her retirement from politics leaving only half a dozen Labor members to choose a new leader. Only 3 of the six had any ministerial experience at all and none had been among the movers and shakers of the former govt.

    Annastacia found herself elected as opposition leader almost by default, but no-one expected Labor to be a serious prospect to govern for at least two or three more terms.

    But history shows that Campbell Newman proved to be an absolute disaster as Premier and his government was thrown from office at the first opportunity.

    Suddenly, in 2015, Annastacia found herself as the unexpected and practically unknown Premier of Queensland. Her government has since been elected for a third term because the electorate see no other option.
    Many Qlders now see Annastacia as barely competent and highly dishonest and untrustworthy.
    She badly mismanaged the pandemic response and is well and truly in the pocket of the fossil fuel and other vested interests. Her government is diabolically weak on crime, especially youth crime. She and her Cabinet have become arrogant and contemptuous of the electors.

    Her perceived “popularity” comes from the fact that the vast majority of the population see the opposition as grossly incompetent, thoroughly corrupt (even more than Labor) and totally unelectable. Just as bad, if not worse, than the oppositions in Vic and WA.
    That leaves Annastacia, for the time being, as the only game in town.

    If the opposition do get their act together and draft in some credible players to lead them out of the wilderness (unlikely I know), Annastacia will be gleefully thrown out as was Anna Bligh. Until then she has an open goal.
    Rant over! Sorry for the long read if you got through it.

    Anna Bligh, before the election she won, promised not to privatise state assets. Very soon after being elected, spooked by dire stories of the state going bankrupt, she started selling assets. Despite her much admired leadership during the floods, she was basically defeated because of this broken promise.

    Anastasia won largely by staring straight at the camera for what seemed like hours saying “We will not sell your assets”.

    It is one of the clearest bits of evidence that voters don’t want state assets sold.

    All the other polemics pale into insignificance

  32. OC
    But did they need those fibs to get themselves over the line?
    As for Johnson’s ignorance, anyone who watched his career as journo ‘commenting’ on EU matters need hardly be surprised.

  33. Oh brilliant. egw’s reply to my accusations of him being over reliant on the MSM when forming his opinions as to the justice system is ‘I did my own research’ by google and some anecdotal tittle tat.

    Yee haw!

  34. Some of my fondest memories as a teenager is a group of us trying to scrape up the cash to put in for some weed on the weekend, and then finding a house to smoke at, a bedroom if I got lucky. The munchies, the music. If there was a pool, the weekend was heaven.

  35. BW
    I expect that was the case – both lies were comforting for Unionists.
    Even so, the DUP refused to be involved in the agreement and were ambushed by the more moderate elements.

  36. OC
    Sunak does not quite seem to have the breathless deathwish for NI that Truss exhibited in her mercifully brief apogee.
    Do you think there is a reasonable chance that Sunak and the EU will be able to cobble a workable solution out of the current British NI mess?

  37. Yes I saw that stuff OC.

    The problem for the British Govt is they would happily be shot of NI, but it has a nasty habit of throwing up scenarios where the DUP/ Unionists end up in a BOP.

    No British Govt could survive a NI collapse either with unionists fleeing to the North.

    Status quo – and reviving power sharing would be the best outcome , and a gradual transition to reunification in maybe the 2040’s so people get used to the idea would be helpful. Maybe if Prince Andrew is still alive he could be rehabilitated to preside over the handover of Stormont / (and removal of Carson’s statue) to the Irish President?

  38. I think it is possible rather than probable but the question is; What is in it for the EU?
    I have difficulty imagining a solution without some sort of border – either in the Irish Sea or on the Island and the two stream solution looks like an invitation to corruption.
    Truss’ solution of unilateral action would surely result in a trade war with UK the looser

  39. OC
    I can’t see anyone (except the diehards) winning from a land border.
    So it will probably be the sea border with some institutionalized argy bargy attached.
    The EU may figure it has enough on its plate ATM…

  40. e.g.w.:

    Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 5:48 pm

    [‘The two teens had their matters heard in Brisbane Children’s Court on Wednesday after being charged with the murder of North Lakes woman Emma Lovell and the attempted murder of her husband Lee Lovell on Boxing Day night.

    7NEWS understands one of the boys was responsible for the stabbing of a man in his St Lucia home in Brisbane last year. The then 15-year-old was charged with attempted murder, was sentenced and has since been released from custody.’]

    If this has been reported correctly, Emma Lovell would not be dead. In Queensland, a minor receives half of the sentence of an adult. I find it hard to believe that a minor charged with attempted murder would’ve been released so soon after sentence.

  41. ajm @ #1248 Thursday, December 29th, 2022 – 7:01 pm

    Bystander @ #1245 Thursday, December 29th, 2022 – 6:55 pm

    ajm
    Which assets did Anna Bligh sell?

    Railways, ports, motorways, etc. Not sure if everything eventually went through but the mooted figure in 2009 was 15B. You can Google it.

    Click to Edit – <b>Bystander</b> @ <a href='https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/12/26/newspoll-quarterly-aggregates-july-to-december-open-thread/comment-page-25/#comment-4039908&#039; title='1672304105000'>#1245 Thursday, December 29th, 2022 – 6:55 pm</a>

    <blockquote>ajm
    Which assets did Anna Bligh sell?</blockquote>

    Railways, ports, motorways, etc. Not sure if everything eventually went through but the mooted figure in 2009 was 15B. You can Google it.SaveCancelDelete

    And Forests

  42. Lars
    At this stage, I can’t see the DUP taking part in a government under a republican first minister. A revival of their electoral fortunes also seems unlikely. I hope I am wrong but Direct rule is here to stay.

    Talk of unification is premature until a consensus model has been agreed and this will be difficult as the Unionists will not engage.
    The only model that might have success and could possibly be put to referendum by Westminster is a loose confederation (with co-sovereignty like Andorra?). The Civil War parties would also be happy with this as they are quite satisfied with partition. A solution not dissimilar to the 4th Home Rule Bill of 1920

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