As it usually does on Boxing Day, The Australian has published quarterly aggregates of Newspoll with state and demographic breakdowns, on this occasion casting an unusually wide net from its polling all the way back to July to early this month, reflecting the relative infrequency of its results over this time. The result is a combined survey of 5771 respondents that finds Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (a swing of about 3.5% to Labor compared with the election), 57-43 in Victoria (about 2%), 55-45 in Western Australia (no change) and 57-43 in South Australia (a 4.0% swing), while trailing 51-49 in Queensland a 3% swing).
Gender breakdowns show only a slight gap, with Labor leading 54-46 among men and 56-44 among women, with the Greens as usual stronger among women among men. Age cohort results trend from 65-35 to Labor for 18-to-34 to 54-46 to the Coalition among 65-plus, with the Greens respectively on 24% and 3%. Little variation is recorded according to education or income, but Labor are strongest among part-time workers and weakest among the retired, stronger among non-English speakers but well ahead either way, and 62-38 ahead among those identifying as of no religion but 53-47 behind among Christians. You can find all the relevant data, at least for voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack.
The Vic post election thread has all but archived itself so I’ll post a link to Antony Green’s wash up on 2022 vote types (ie election day, pre-poll, postal etc) here:
https://antonygreen.com.au/vic22-results-by-vote-type-and-vote-type-by-electorate/
One point he makes that I’m hopefully reflecting correctly: although, as in 2018, the ALP’s 2PP vote share in Prepolls was lower than its 2PP in election day/in district votes, the gap was quite a bit less in 2022. The ABC’s computer was therefore configured on the basis that 2022 Prepolls would be expected to make a bigger dent in the progressive raw ALP 2PP count as they were added to the tally on election night, than they actually did. That meant it took longer to call the result on the night than it otherwise would have and the size of the Labor win took some time to become apparent.
Might be worth keeping in mind for NSW election night. The behaviour of prepolls seems a little variable election to election, although as the proportion of prepolls goes up, and as you’d expect, any difference in voting patterns relative to election day/in district votes, is likely to reduce.
With Russia adapting to Ukraine’s use of HIMARS artillery, there is discussion in the US about whether the time has come to send ATACMS to Ukraine for longer range:
“… while the HIMARS has proven itself deadly accurate in targeting Russian positions, Putin’s forces have adjusted to that threat. The Russians have moved their command and control nodes and weapons depots out of the 80-mile range of HIMARS batteries to points further south in Crimea, said one person familiar with Ukrainian battlefield assessments. Those movements have blunted some of the weapons’ effectiveness, and increased calls for the longer-range ATACMS missiles, which can travel 190 miles before precisely striking a target.
“The HIMARS, that was a game changer,” [former secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, Oleksandr] Danylyuk said. “Right up until Russia managed to learn how to adapt to it. Now, we kind of reached the limit of what we can do with these advanced weapons. For the next stage, we need the longer-range weapons to achieve the goals that we achieved four months ago when we first received the HIMARS. We can do the same but the range should be longer.”
[Ben] Hodges, the former U.S. Army Europe commander, argued that ATACMS missiles are “exactly what they need” right now. The longer-range weapons would allow Ukraine to hammer key Russian positions such as the Kerch bridge, Russian air bases on Crimea and communications lines.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/29/himars-patriot-russia-ukraine-biden-00075708
One retired us general’s comment does not add up to a discussion about giving Ukraine atacms in the u.s
Your passion for Ukraine is making you see things which aren’t there.
Youth crime isn’t all about poverty.
We’ve had a spate of reports recently of criminal behaviour by young people who go to the most exclusive schools in the land.
Similarly, some very well off adults have ended up in jail.
Morning all. Vale Pele. I never saw him play but I saw a training film of his football techniques when I was in high school. He was inspiring and also a warm and generous person (a polar opposite to the discussion of Bradman’s character earlier in the week).
“ Success is no accident. It is hard work, perseverance, learning, studying, sacrifice and most of all, love of what you are doing or learning to do.” ― Pelé
The other way in which the Russians have adapted to HIMARs is smaller troop concentrations, digging in, defence in depth, and dispersed ammo stores.
I’m all for ATACMs being given to the Ukraine.
z
exactemundo. There are multiple causes for youth crime. Not discussed so far with any vigour are sociopathy, psychopathy, drugged states, rebellion and parental complicity.
max
From personal observation – a lot of time spent at prepolls! – one of the reasons people vote early is that they’ve made up their mind and know they’re not going to change it.
So you’d expect higher numbers voting at prepolls when the choice is clear (which it really was in the Victorian election, no matter how the media pretended otherwise).
Lars Von Trier @ Friday, December 30, 2022 at 7:28 am:
“One retired us general’s comment does not add up to a discussion about giving Ukraine atacms in the u.s
Your passion for Ukraine is making you see things which aren’t there.”
===============
LVT, you can glass-half-empty it, I guess. Caution is always wise when attempting to assess possible developments in this war. But think: Ukraine are frequently requesting ATACMS, and the US has been giving firm negative answers. This would be impossible without a discussion, behind closed doors, of pros and cons. That’s a discussion. All Politico quoted was a public part of that discussion.
And Hodges makes a good point, does he not? I mean, we all want Russia defeated on the battlefield in this war, and we also all want this to happen sooner rather than later, do we not? Longer range strike capability would help with that.
One for C@T on the significant relationships between cannabis use, psychotic episodes and schizophrenia:
https://www.psychiatrictimes.com/view/cannabis-cause-psychosis
I see that Nicholas has dropped in to prove that dropping free money on everything will fix youth crime and is not inflationary either, so there.
I know that the Greens are trying to con their kids, but really!
This paper argues that parental neglect (which is often associated with poverty) is THE big driver in youth crime —
https://www.aic.gov.au/crg/reports/crg-1795-6
Zoomster, do you think parents and teachers have any responsibility for how kids turn out?
Lars
Parents, certainly.
Teachers are often trying to undo what’s already been put in place, often without help from home.
Good Morning Dawn Patrollers! Sort of a downbeat day in the news today.
Vale Pelé
Pelé, a three-time World Cup winner and arguably the greatest player of the 20th century, has died aged 82.
In November Pelé entered the Albert Einstein hospital in São Paulo for cancer treatment.
Medical reports state the soccer star died at 3:27am local time due to organ failure caused by colon cancer.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-30/pele-brazilian-world-cup-winner-football-great-dies-82/101808098
Brazil’s Supreme Court bans guns from capital before Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s inauguration as police investigate coup attempt
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-30/brazil-bolsonaro-lula-election-riots/101816232
Mental Health Australia chair Matt Berriman said the cut to Medicare-subsidised psychology sessions had raised broader concerns about the mental health system. He challenged the government to reveal its longer-term plan for the sector.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mental-health-australia-chair-blasts-government-on-medicare-session-cuts-20221229-p5c98j.html
Professor Ian Hickie has an opposing view:
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/halving-the-number-of-subsided-psych-sessions-is-a-good-idea-20221218-p5c7ad.html
Climate Change policies are upending the global post-WW2 trading system. Climate Change is seen as the foundation for a new trading system.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/who-saves-the-planet-may-run-it-20221229-p5c98f.html
Russia unleashed one of the most intense missile barrages of the war on Thursday, targeting major Ukrainian cities including the capital Kyiv, Lviv in the west near Poland and Odesa in the south.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/senseless-barbarism-ukraine-condemns-barrage-of-missiles-on-kyiv-lviv-20221230-p5c9eb.html
And in some good news. Forward prices for electricity have halved over the past two months, which Energy Minister Chris Bowen says points to the Albanese government’s unprecedented energy market intervention working, but experts say there’s a risk the cheaper futures market won’t flow through to household bills in full.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/futures-market-signals-energy-intervention-will-lower-household-bills-20221229-p5c99w.html
Today David Crowe reflects on his time in Ukraine. He speaks about Ukrainians doing extraordinary work to rebuild even when the war continues.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-saw-ukraine-up-close-we-mustn-t-look-away-20221214-p5c6c4.html
The Herald editorial says that Australia must not overreact to China’s COVID-19 crisis
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-must-not-over-react-to-china-s-covid-crisis-20221229-p5c9by.html
In Victoria, people are waiting years to have cases heard at state’s ‘timely and efficient’ legal tribunal, VCAT
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/people-waiting-years-to-have-cases-heard-at-state-s-timely-and-efficient-legal-tribunal-20221223-p5c8gv.html
In more good news, Greta Thunberg has totally owned Andrew Tate
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2022/12/29/thunberg-andrew-tate-twitter/
Kosovo has reopened its biggest border crossing with Serbia, hours after protesting Serbs in its north promised to remove roadblocks, easing a surge in tensions that has alarmed world powers.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/europe-news/2022/12/29/kosovo-reopens-serbia-crossing/
Looking ahead to 2023, if Australia is going to be successful in getting its economy established on a 1.5C aligned pathway, it will need to focus on policy that ensures real emission reduction.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/dec/28/australian-government-must-take-its-foot-off-the-gas-to-ensure-real-emission-reductions
Lula in Brazil that two internationally celebrated Amazon defenders, Marina Silva and Sônia Guajajara, have been named as ministers in Brazil’s new government in an attempt to contain the intensifying assault on Indigenous territories and the environment.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/29/brazils-president-lula-picks-staunch-amazon-defenders-for-ministry
And here are a few cartoons from this quiet time of year:
Alan Moir
Vintage Jim Pavlidis
Elesin Aleksander
Vintage Cathy Wilcox
Andrew Dyson
Thank you c@t
It’s interesting so much of social welfare is about substituting for the absence of a stable two parent family.
It;s not fashionable to talk about the defence of family though.
Musk allowing Tate back on air tells you everything you need to know about Musk.
Tate trolling Thunberg in the Tate manner tells you everything you need to know about Tate.
Thunberg responding?
IMO, Thunberg can only come out ahead by ignoring Tate.
Engaging with Tate gives Tate what he wants.
Boerwar @ #1310 Friday, December 30th, 2022 – 7:52 am
I thought you might laud that one, Boerwar. I’ve read it and it actually proves my point if you care to understand it, instead of using it mistakenly to prove yours.
That is, research by Johnson and colleagues conducted a large genome-wide association study of those who use cannabis (n=20,916) and controls (n=363,116). They identified 2 loci with genome-wide significance: a novel locus on chromosome 7 (FOXP2; OR=1.11, 95% CI 1.07-1.15), and a previously identified locus on chromosome 8 (near CHRNA2 and EPHX2; OR=0.89, 95% CI 0.86-0.93). Importantly, cannabis use and CUD were significantly, positively, and genetically correlated with schizophrenia in this study.
This proves my point that the psychosis that results from cannabis use is positively correlated with schizophrenia and the two identified genetic loci.
I asked you to provide proof of your hyperbolic assertions wrt the general population. The above article does not. As I said, it proves my assertion that psychosis as a result of cannabis use, is a factor prevalent, not in the general population but in the mentally ill population. Whose numbers, wrt the general population, are small. These are simply the facts of the matter.
Lars Von Trier @ #1317 Friday, December 30th, 2022 – 8:10 am
Because controlling men never murder their wives or children in nuclear families, do they Lars? 🙄
‘Kos Samaras
@KosSamaras
·
45m
9. Lastly back to a seat like Broadmeadows. The Informal vote, combined with those who did not turn up is larger than the Liberal Party primary. This is repeated across the west and north west. The Liberal Party is not Labor’s biggest threat here. It’s poor civic education.’
Part of a thread which argues that informal voting is higher in Labor seats, thus depressing the Labor vote (hence Labor support is actually higher than the election numbers suggest).
No complex problem is all one thing but poverty and unemployment are huge contributors to ill health, substance misuse, anti-social behaviour, crime, and other social problems. And contrary to what the economically illiterate say, lifting Centrelink benefits to $620 per week for a single person would not be inflationary in Australia’s current economic context. We have the productive capacity to meet everybody’s basic needs in this country. We just don’t mobilise and distribute the real resources that we do have in a sensible way. In Australia, poverty is very much a policy choice.
As for full employment policies, they are counter-inflationary. They increase productive capacity. We currently waste a large amount of resources by forcing a lot of people to be involuntarily idle. Keeping people unemployed and poor is not necessary for the sake of price stability. Unemployment, like poverty, is a policy choice. A very bad one.
it seems the liberals are strugiling at the moment dutton has not find any thing to attack albanese and labor over so far
Low self-esteem from perceived poverty.
Is poverty the same throughout the world ?
Is poverty the same throughout Australia ?
Is poverty the same in a city ?
And so on……..
Poverty is perceived by individuals and their responses are perceived.
Attempting to define poverty is endless and the array of perceived poverty that results in crime is endless.
Sometimes a full belly reduces the impetus to commit a crime but defining what the belly is lacking is endless and of course the belly has many forms.
That clear it up ?
Nah !
”it seems the liberals are strugiling at the moment dutton has not find any thing to attack albanese and labor over so far”
…and that’s a big problem when “attack” is Plan A and there is no Plan B.
Thanks Cat for the roundup. I love that Albo went to the folk festival to speak about the Voice. He was more than entitled to a holiday after a long year. Even most of the journos are still on holidays.
But two weeks in Hawaii is not Albo’s style.
Nicholas$48
Where do you get $620 per week from?
ACOSS says that the poverty line for a single person is $489.
https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/social-affairs/one-eight-people-australia-living-poverty-cost-living-pressures-increase#:~:text=Key%20findings%20in%20the%20Poverty,ABS%20(2019%2D20).
I think your comments are reasonable Nicholas and once was considered orthodox. When did anything less than full employment become acceptable?
I guess the argument about $620 per week Centrelink is well why work if you can get enough cash to live off – especially if your part of a couple of household.
How many people are malingerers ? I suspect not that many but the UBI seems a better option to provide social equity for all. After all it was originally advocated by Milton Friedman.
C@t, With regard to cannabis use and mental health. Cannabis use does not cause psychosis or other cognitive problems unless one is already disposed to such mental issues.
Aaron newtonsays:
Friday, December 30, 2022 at 8:24 am
“it seems the liberals are strugiling at the moment”
That seems about right and the polls have reflected that at many levels over a lengthy time period.
Are the liberals, with Perrottet at the top of the greasy pole, just wasting their time and money, in contesting the upcoming NSW election with any vigour ?
Many Australians bet against the odds and their best interests, hence the online gambling, sports betting companies, lotto and of course the ubiquitous machines.
We could add the NSW, Perrottet LNP government to that list !
When too much Murdoch is never enough:
“The Wall Street Journal
“Don’t miss our Boxing Day Sale. Join today for $2 AUD/month.”
I hope you stay pure Ollie and dont let any Murdoch words contaminate your pristine consciousness.
‘Muskiemp says:
Friday, December 30, 2022 at 8:37 am
C@t, With regard to cannabis use and mental health. Cannabis use does not cause psychosis or other cognitive problems unless one is already disposed to such mental issues.’
================================================
Circular argument issue here, I believe.
Muskiemp: “C@t, With regard to cannabis use and mental health. Cannabis use does not cause psychosis or other cognitive problems unless one is already disposed to such mental issues.”
The same thing for any substance, or indeed, anything. Alcohol… or gambling. Not everyone is equally suited to all activities. If you’re going to say that cannabis should be banned because some people have bad reactions, that same argument exists for alcohol and gambling.
Muskiemp @ #1329 Friday, December 30th, 2022 – 8:37 am
Exactly.
Boerwar @ #1333 Friday, December 30th, 2022 – 8:49 am
No, just the physiological facts, Boerwar. Just admit you have based your attack on a mistaken assumption and move on.
For half a century, Lars, devouring the morning paper was as much a part of my daily routine as brushing my teeth.
Until that day in 2003 when, day after day, the front page of The Australian trumpeted the ‘slam-dunk case’ (sic) for invading Iraq.
I decided that enough was enough.
How many people are genuinely malingerers? There are some but not that many I would have thought. I think that greed is a bigger problem in our society than sloth. Who wants to sit around all day doing nothing with barely enough money for the basics, if even that? Sharing a house with five others on the dole might be fun for a little while when young – I wouldn’t know, never tried it – but there’s not much of a future in it. Young people want to do stuff and have stuff – an interesting job, travel, adventure, a home, a partner, a family, maybe social position. On the subject of partners, unemployment and poverty are serious anaphrodesiacs, especially for men.
Oliver Sutton: ” decided that enough was enough.”
It was children overboard for me. I’ve never purchased a murdoch rag since.
Boerwar doesn’t want young people getting stoned. He wants them to be dairy farmers.
Interesting pick-up on UK politics.
“Damian from Brighton@damian_from · 5h
The media is heavily pushing the line that Keir Starmer will be the next prime minister of the UK.
Do these look like winning numbers to you?”
”Until that day in 2003 when, day after day, the front page of The Australian trumpeted the ‘slam-dunk case’ (sic) for invading Iraq.”
For me I think it was 2007 or 2008 after yet another turgid 16,000 word op ed by a climate denier.
So, we all, except for cat, agree that cannabis does cause significant psychotic episodes and does cause schizophrenia. Not just in everyone.
Those seeking to legalize cannabis use would, I assume, have as part of the Plan, a way of helping young people diagnose whether or not they have a predisposition to psychotic episodes and to schizophrenia.
After all, the touted need for ‘harm minimization’ indicates that the would be legalisers tacitly acknowledge that harm will happen.
And, yes, same same for other recreation drugs of choice, including the biggie – alcohol.
What about the mental harm of becoming a dairy farmer?
We do the neighbourly thing from time to time and look after neighbour’s houses when they duck down to the coast or off to the rellies for a weekend or a week. And vicki verka.
One such event recently netted us free access to the Weekend Australian.
Used to read it avidly.
Now?
Could not be bothered taking off the plastic wrapper.
The long term unemployed tend to be relatively old members of the workforce.*
Many of them would prefer to have a reasonable income and not have to look for work (which they know, from years of searching, isn’t out there).
I wouldn’t call them ‘malingerers’.
Older people (myself included) often have health issues which make working difficult, but aren’t so extreme that one can apply for sickness or disability benefits.
*Interestingly, I looked up stats on long term unemployment recently- they suggest that people who had been unemployed for three years or more three years ago are basically still unemployed.
Steve777: How many people are genuinely malingerers?
Enough that most people know one. (there are of course a lot of malingerers who are in paid employment – the members for Cook and New England for example) This is why the “Dole Bludger” outrage actually works.
Re Poverty – It is relative obviously, but best described by an immigrant to the USA who said he wanted to live in a country where the poor people were fat.
Nath: It’s called going “Postal”, not going “Dairy”
Steve777 says:
Friday, December 30, 2022 at 9:01 am
”Until that day in 2003 when, day after day, the front page of The Australian trumpeted the ‘slam-dunk case’ (sic) for invading Iraq.”
For me I think it was 2007 or 2008 after yet another turgid 16,000 word op ed by a climate denier.
____________
Discovering Pollbludger has greatly helped my awareness of media bias – including the diversity of perspectives of posters here.
This leads me to a disturbing thought: I’m not a low-information voter and my understanding of the media game was, until recent years, poor. What chance the majority of (definitely low-information, low-engagement) voters?
z
IMO ‘older worker’ should be partly defined by occupation.
Potato pickers when I was young were rarely older than 40. Their backs had packed it in by then. Shearing ages the shearer.
Other occupations are never ‘old’. Politicians are perfectly capable of wrecking the joint in their eighties, for example.
Malingerers, even if they put huge amounts of energy into perfecting their work, can make it into the nineties.