As it usually does on Boxing Day, The Australian has published quarterly aggregates of Newspoll with state and demographic breakdowns, on this occasion casting an unusually wide net from its polling all the way back to July to early this month, reflecting the relative infrequency of its results over this time. The result is a combined survey of 5771 respondents that finds Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (a swing of about 3.5% to Labor compared with the election), 57-43 in Victoria (about 2%), 55-45 in Western Australia (no change) and 57-43 in South Australia (a 4.0% swing), while trailing 51-49 in Queensland a 3% swing).
Gender breakdowns show only a slight gap, with Labor leading 54-46 among men and 56-44 among women, with the Greens as usual stronger among women among men. Age cohort results trend from 65-35 to Labor for 18-to-34 to 54-46 to the Coalition among 65-plus, with the Greens respectively on 24% and 3%. Little variation is recorded according to education or income, but Labor are strongest among part-time workers and weakest among the retired, stronger among non-English speakers but well ahead either way, and 62-38 ahead among those identifying as of no religion but 53-47 behind among Christians. You can find all the relevant data, at least for voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack.
Thanks Cat again for a great Dawn Patrol.
UK Cartoons:
Peter Schrank on #RishiSunak #KeirStarmer #LawAndOrder
Brian Adcock on #RishiSunak and his year ahead
Stephen Camley on #RailStrike
Peter Schrank on #COVID19
US Cartoons:
ar
‘nothing is ever safe’ is a rather broad category from which to mount a case for a state approach to a particular issue.
How about informed consent for legalized amphetamines and opioids?
ISW situational update on Ukraine’s resumed counter-offensive on the Kharkiv-Luhansk front, towards Kreminna:
“Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna on December 29. Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the Ukrainian General Staff, Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov, reported that Ukrainian forces have advanced 2.5km in the direction of Kreminna over the past week and are continuing offensive actions towards the settlement. Hromov stated that information is circulating among officers of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) 2nd Army Corps that a significant part of the 2nd Army Corps will surrender if Ukrainian forces break through the Svatove-Kreminna line. Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai stated that Ukrainian forces may capture Kreminna by the beginning of 2023. A Russian milblogger claimed that 1,500 Ukrainian servicemen are currently trying to break through Russian positions near Kreminna from the direction of Torske (14km west of Kreminna), Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna), and Kuzmyne (3km southwest of Kreminna).”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-29
============================
This bit raised my eyebrows:
“Hromov stated that information is circulating among officers of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) 2nd Army Corps that a significant part of the 2nd Army Corps will surrender if Ukrainian forces break through the Svatove-Kreminna line. ”
More rats leaving the sinking ship!
🙂
Слава Україні! Героям слава!
Casual employment numbers have been the same for the last 30 yrs.
It’s spin that there’s a Charles dickens underclass out there.
From the ISW report I excerpted above:
“A Russian milblogger claimed that 1,500 Ukrainian servicemen are currently trying to break through Russian positions near Kreminna from the direction of Torske (14km west of Kreminna), Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna), and Kuzmyne (3km southwest of Kreminna).”
Looking at the map of Donetsk/Luhansk west of Kreminna, these Ukrainian units have advanced in force halfway across the distance from the Donetsk/Luhansk border to the outskirts of Kreminna itself, and are pushing closer from there.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Kuz'myne,+Luhansk+Oblast,+Ukraine,+92902/@49.0471017,38.1487247,12z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x4120721579f75a19:0x9e8026ac611d8574!8m2!3d49.0062104!4d38.1452724!5m1!1e4
I haven’t talked much about transport policy for a while except EVs. Not much has been happening on the public transport and better urban planning front, except perhaps Melbourne Sky-Rail and a few LRT schemes. In other countries electrification of bus fleets is a big deal, but it hasn’t happened at scale in Australia.
This may change. Brisbane has completed road trials of its new Metro vehicle, and has now ordered 57.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OKPfcrWJ4k
This is a large articulated electric bus, with many tram-like characteristics. They might suit many applications where people have proposed trackless-trams. They are not cheap (cost claims about trackless trams were hype) but it is a good quality vehicle now proven to Australain standards, so low risk.
These may be a good solution for places like Scarborough Beach Road in Perth, links to Monash Uni in Melbourne, and the O Bahn in Adelaide.
Arky – I usually don’t do explainers.
But what part of stable 2 partner families don’t you understand – and I’ll explain for you !
Had a pub meal with Chris Kenny last night.
“with” = “in the same room as”
zoomster @ #1395 Friday, December 30th, 2022 – 10:58 am
Greta’s twitter takedown of Tate earned her 2.8M likes. That’s in the top 25 liked tweets of all time.
Victoria @ #1399 Friday, December 30th, 2022 – 11:03 am
Hope so. Been going on for too long. GET.IT.DONE.
More from ISW’s assessment, this time on Russian occupation activities in what they hold of Kherson Oblast:
“Russian occupation authorities are facing pressure from farmers in occupied territories. A Russian source claimed on December 29 that Ukrainian farmers in occupied Kherson Oblast face a lack of geocadastre (territorial land management) bodies and unprepared irrigation systems that are preventing them from resuming agricultural activities throughout Kherson Oblast. The Russian source claimed on December 29 that Ukrainian farmers are requesting that Kherson Occupation Administration Head Vladimir Saldo urgently address threats to the upcoming agricultural season as Russian occupation authorities have failed to provide the promised support to Ukrainian farmers.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-29
========================
These Russians seem either unable or unwilling to provide the most basic infrastructure for continued civilian life in the areas of Ukraine they still control and claim to be part of Russia. In this instance, it imperils food production. Is this another Holodomor in the making? Yet another reason for urgency in expelling the Russians from Ukrainian territory.
Simon Henny Penny Katich @ #1409 Friday, December 30th, 2022 – 11:40 am
That was bad luck.
How is that dedicated war thread coming along …?
Gin and tonic producers in the UK have every reason to raise a toast to 2023, with tariffs on all products going to Australia due to be removed under the UK-Australia FTA brokered thanks to Brexit. The UK-Australia deal – the first to be negotiated from scratch since leaving the European Union – is expected to increase trade with Australia by 53 percent, boost the UK economy by £2.3 billion and add £900 million to household wages in the long run.
Brighton Gin and the UK’s leading premium mixer brand Fever-Tree each regard Australia as one of their core international markets. Both are poised to become more competitive in the Australian market, with the trade deal axing tariffs on exports of both gin and tonic water, currently set at five per cent.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1715010/brexit-news-australia-tariff-free-gin-tonic-kemi-badenoch-fever-tree
frednk says:
Friday, December 30, 2022 at 10:41 am
Ukraine now has Russia so jittery the Russian air defense is shooting down Russian rockets and planes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gZyI8EUhqQ&ab_channel=ReportingfromUkraine
——————————————————————————————-
Very interesting, is anyone aware of corroborating evidence from other sources?
Rex Douglas @ Friday, December 30, 2022 at 11:48 am:
“How is that dedicated war thread coming along …?”
====================
Rex, I didn’t see any seconders for this motion of yours yesterday, but I did see one opponent other than myself.
When will you learn that it is better to critique a view you disagree with than to try to get it silenced by shunting it off somewhere else where it won’t bother you?
Why is Labor compensating coal companies, with taxpayer monies, who are rolling in war related massive profits …?
BW: “How about informed consent for legalized amphetamines and opioids?”
How about making alcohol and sugar illegal?
Macarthur @ #1417 Friday, December 30th, 2022 – 11:52 am
If the comment relates to Australian politics then fine.
But flooding the political blog daily with tactical warfare – nah that belongs in a dedicated thread, IMO.
I’m with Rex fwiw.
Simon Henny Penny Katich says:
Friday, December 30, 2022 at 11:40 am
Had a pub meal with Chris Kenny last night.
“with” = “in the same room as”
I trust you sanitised thoroughly afterwards.
Rex Douglas @ Friday, December 30, 2022 at 11:55 am:
“If the comment relates to Australian politics then fine.”
===================
Good. The Australian Government, like many governments around the world, is in a position where it must strike a balance between several policy imperatives:
a) upholding international law and humanitarian values where they are threatened;
b) participating in military alliances for our own defence;
c) securing energy and other critical supplies for our economies household and business sectors;
d) cushioning its own citizens from negative standard of living impacts from overseas events.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine touches significantly on Australian Government policy deliberations in all these ways. So, discussion of that war is completely within the remit of this blog.
Just scroll past if you find this particular topic especially boring. You’ve given us all lots of practice in exercising this skill yourself, so I’m glad I can return the favour for you.
The concept that Russia is not properly coordinating it’s air defence and air offensives (missiles and aircraft) if confirmed again shows an atrocious level of training, planning and coordination for a supposed superpower. If confirmed it would reflect very poorly on the various levels of communication. Procedures for such activity are normally inviolable.
Pi @ Friday, December 30, 2022 at 11:59 am:
“I’m with Rex fwiw.”
================
Fine. Then my advice to him above applies to you as well.
For as long as Russians are still occupying any of Ukraine, I’m not stopping.
Macarthur: “Just scroll past if you find this particular topic especially boring.”
I don’t find it boring; I find it off topic. This is an Australian politics/psephology blog. We have NSW threads. We have Vic threads. We have QLD threads. We have UK and US election threads. We even have senate threads sometimes. Can’t see why there shouldn’t be a “wars on the other side of the world” thread, so the discussions of Australian politics and psephology can continue without being drowned in off-topic discussions.
Daily Express, per Holdenbilly:
“The UK-Australia deal … is expected to increase trade with Australia by 53 percent, boost the UK economy by £2.3 billion and add £900 million to household wages in the long run.”
Yeah, yeah, ‘free beer tomorrow’.
We’ve heard that one before.
I trust you sanitised thoroughly afterwards
———————————
It is already my least favourite of the locals and only go there if I must. Full of rich posers, owned by a tosser, food is average at high prices, good list of tap beer but overpriced, wine the same….. and now Kenny!
Pi, should we have cricket threads? World Cup threads? AFL/NRL threads? USA Politics threads? Overseas COVID news threads?
My point is this is an OPEN thread. This means, by definition, nothing is “off topic”.
(Having said that, did you not read how this war is, in fact, very much ‘on point’ in a blog about Australian politics?)
I find it very revealing of the two of you (Rex and yourself) that you choose to single out discussion of
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for such quarantining.
Rex: “But flooding the political blog daily with tactical warfare – nah that belongs in a dedicated thread, IMO.”
Yep, the ‘101st Chairborne Division’ (hat tip to poroti).
Re Andrew Tate
Karma is truly delicious even in the form of a pizza.
Zoom/Rex
The Greta Thunberg takedown of Andrew Tate leading to Tate’s arrest on human trafficking charges must be one of the happiest bits of news to end the year on. His arrest has now been confirmed.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/30/andrew-tate-detained-in-romania-on-organised-and-charges?CMP=GTAU_email
MacArthur: “I find it very revealing of the two of you (Rex and yourself) that you choose to single out discussion of
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for such quarantining.”
I’d happy add the tedious to-and-fro about submarine capabilities.
katich: “and now Kenny!”
The hate-goblin that broke the camels back.
Oliver: “submarine capabilities.”
At least that relates to Australian politics. So not my interest, but it is on topic.
Oliver/poroti: “101st Chairborne Division”
Great thread name.
‘Pi says:
Friday, December 30, 2022 at 11:54 am
BW: “How about informed consent for legalized amphetamines and opioids?”
How about making alcohol and sugar illegal?’
———————————-
Mine was in direct reply to a view that informed consent should be part of legalizing cannabis. It is a legitimate follow up, on which silence.
I would be more than happy for alcohol to be treated like other recreational drugs.
My question stands. If informed consent is going to address the health risks of using cannabis, will informed consent do the same for amphetamines and opioids?
Sugar is one of a large range of foods which, taken in excess, are bad for health. I would support various regulatory approaches to reducing sugar intake drastically.
Blog Nanny alert!
Socrates @ 1136
Re BCC’s new articulated buses.
IIRC in Melbourne the proposed Rowville via Monash University from Caulfield route has been downgraded from heavy rail, light rail and now trackless ‘trams’ seem to be under consideration. Apparently the light rail proposal was quietly dropped or shelved during the November state election.
If the ‘trackless’ tram idea gets legs it will either involve a complete rebuild of Dandenong and Wellington Roads (not just a resurfacing but digging up and rebuilding the foundations which will cost billions and take two to three years causing significant disruption) to incorporate the underground guide wires or a O-Bahn like track constructed.
My money would be a light rail with underground sections given we have the proven technology here in Melbourne.
Speaking of light rail there needs to be some serious expansion of Melbourne’s tram network which has not been feeling the love from the Dan Andrews government apart from the E / E2 class trams and the new G class cars coming from 2025. Melbourne’s bus network needs a root and branch review of all routes with some serious rationalisation and expansion of bus priority lanes, express services and more. Unfortunately the bus industry is pretty powerful and are well connected politically here so it would be a brave Transport Minister to take them on.
Boerwar @ Friday, December 30, 2022 at 12:19 pm:
“Blog Nanny alert!”
===================
😆
Macarthur @ #1429 Friday, December 30th, 2022 – 12:13 pm
I’m fine with the occasional off-topic comment.
You can’t deny though that there’s daily flooding of these blogs with tactical warfare.
BW: “It is a legitimate follow up, on which silence.”
It’s a slippery slope fallacy that I simply reversed for you.
BW: “informed consent do the same for amphetamines and opioids?”
The answer is yes. And your answer is that you think all mind altering substances should be banned (alcohol, coffee, tobacco, etc.) by the same logic.
I’m beginning to think you might be a lobbyist for organised crime.
Socrates @ #1432 Friday, December 30th, 2022 – 12:15 pm
Has to be up there for feel-good story of the year …?
On the one screen of this blog, Hypocrisy Rex, in comments just 10 minutes apart:
1. Rex Douglas @ Friday, December 30, 2022 at 11:45 am:
“Victoria @ #1399 Friday, December 30th, 2022 – 11:03 am
Meanwhile indictments are coming for Trump in the new year. Wonder if he still plans on escaping to the middle east.
Good riddance to bad rubbish.
Hope so. Been going on for too long. GET.IT.DONE.”
2. Rex Douglas @ Friday, December 30, 2022 at 11:55 am:
“If the comment relates to Australian politics then fine.”
==============================
I am pretty sure 10 minutes beats a goldfish , so well done.
William has often said that this blog is meant to be about more than just polls and politics.
I’ve picked up some good recipes from this site!
‘Pi says:
Friday, December 30, 2022 at 12:23 pm
BW: “It is a legitimate follow up, on which silence.”
It’s a slippery slope fallacy that I simply reversed for you.
BW: “informed consent do the same for amphetamines and opioids?”
The answer is yes. And your answer is that you think all mind altering substances should be banned by the same logic.
I’m beginning to think you might be a lobbyist for organised crime.’
———————————————————
My point is that the essential problem for banners and legalizers is that not all substances are the same. Universal arguments based on either approach do not apply.
It behooves banners or legalizers to thread that maze and not simply to ignore its existence.
I am not sure, but you seem to be the first person, from the above comment, to believe that recreational amphetamine and opioid use should be legalized.
Rex Douglas @ Friday, December 30, 2022 at 12:22 pm:
“I’m fine with the occasional off-topic comment.”
=========================
Glad to hear it, Rex. I knew that, though, given your own affinity for what you seem to define as “off-topic comments”.
BTW, I’m also glad someone is keeping score of comment topics to ensure any topic not defined as “on-topic” doesn’t occur in numbers above what is consistent with “occasional”.
Some great PB boomtish atm. Where is the official scorer?
BW: “My point is that the essential problem for banners and legalizers is that not all substances are the same. Universal arguments based on either approach do not apply.”
No one said they were. That’s what the ‘informed’ in ‘informed consent’ means. Otherwise they’d just call it ‘consent’.
I’ve picked up some good recipes from this site!
————————
Indeed. Not to mention spider stories…. and discussions on shovels, black pudding and rainfall.
Anyway, that was fun, Rex and Pi. Back to the matter at hand.
“Russian occupation authorities are continuing to face partisan pressure in occupied territories. Kherson Oblast Administration Advisor Serhiy Khlan reported on December 29 that likely Ukrainian partisans blew up the Nova Kakhovka occupation police department head Yehor Kuzakov. Khlan noted that he is awaiting additional information and official confirmation of the incident.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-29
===========================
On first read, I thought this meant blowing up a building, but it meant the head himself (both occupationally and anatomically, boom-tish!)
Grant Ex-Libris
“My money would be a light rail with underground sections given we have the proven technology here in Melbourne.”
I was only suggesting the Metro (E Bus) for places where LRT was needed but money not forthcoming. If the funding is available I’d certainly prefer LRT.
“Speaking of light rail there needs to be some serious expansion of Melbourne’s tram network which has not been feeling the love from the Dan Andrews government apart from the E / E2 class trams and the new G class cars coming from 2025. ”
Agreed. Huge social benefit in investing in upgrading and expanding the Melbourne tram system.
‘Pi says:
Friday, December 30, 2022 at 12:31 pm
BW: “My point is that the essential problem for banners and legalizers is that not all substances are the same. Universal arguments based on either approach do not apply.”
No one said they were. That’s what the ‘informed’ in ‘informed consent’ means. Otherwise they’d just call it ‘consent’.’
—————————–
Ah. So you are seeking to legalize everything?