As it usually does on Boxing Day, The Australian has published quarterly aggregates of Newspoll with state and demographic breakdowns, on this occasion casting an unusually wide net from its polling all the way back to July to early this month, reflecting the relative infrequency of its results over this time. The result is a combined survey of 5771 respondents that finds Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (a swing of about 3.5% to Labor compared with the election), 57-43 in Victoria (about 2%), 55-45 in Western Australia (no change) and 57-43 in South Australia (a 4.0% swing), while trailing 51-49 in Queensland a 3% swing).
Gender breakdowns show only a slight gap, with Labor leading 54-46 among men and 56-44 among women, with the Greens as usual stronger among women among men. Age cohort results trend from 65-35 to Labor for 18-to-34 to 54-46 to the Coalition among 65-plus, with the Greens respectively on 24% and 3%. Little variation is recorded according to education or income, but Labor are strongest among part-time workers and weakest among the retired, stronger among non-English speakers but well ahead either way, and 62-38 ahead among those identifying as of no religion but 53-47 behind among Christians. You can find all the relevant data, at least for voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack.
zoomster @ #1442 Friday, December 30th, 2022 – 12:26 pm
I’m doing a good one today, zoomster. 🙂
Fetta Pasta Bake.
Put a block of fetta in the middle of a baking dish. Then spread a bottle of fetta cubes around it, oil and all. I use the one with all the herbs and peppercorns in the jar by Castello. Then get 2 punnets of small tomatoes and place them around the block of fetta with the fetta cubes. finally, for a bit of zing, sprinkle chilli flakes all over. Then pop it in the oven at 180C for 30-35 minutes. Take it out and then mix everything together. While it’s cooking, about half way through, put your pasta on and cook it. they should both come out about the same time. After you have mixed the ingredients in the baking dish together, mix in the pasta. Voila! Eat a delish meal. 🙂
My 2023 prediction: Trump decamps to Moscow and mysteriously, a defenestration occurs just in time for Easter and an unusual orange blob is found in the car park below.
Cronus @ #1430 Friday, December 30th, 2022 – 12:14 pm
And best served in a cold Romanian jail. 😀
Hey, not sure if most people understand what ‘informed consent’ means in the ethical sense. It doesn’t just mean that someone can agree to some action that involves them because they are provided with the appropriate information. It is a requirement to validate that they are capable of synthesising that information. It’s not just a check box. There are many people who would agree to, or want, anything. But if informed consent is required, the subject or client must be interviewed to validate whether they have the capacity to give that consent. If they don’t, informed consent cannot be given.
BW: “legalize everything”
They already are legal, they’re just proscribed. Doctors prescribe opioids and amphetamines on a daily basis.
Informed consent for everything, yes. Family history of mental illness? Sux2bu. You do not have the capacity to give informed consent for certain classifications of drugs. They are not capable of seeing the long term effect of a drug on their mental health. Maybe it will lead to research on drugs that don’t have the negative outcomes. bonza.
Pi says:
They already are legal, they’re just proscribed. Doctors prescribe opioids and amphetamines on a daily basis
_________
And plenty of people fake a bit of back pain to get some opiods for a weekend. Or ‘finish’ off a pack prescribed to a family member or friend. Not that I would know anything about that.
Socrates @ #1431 Friday, December 30th, 2022 – 12:15 pm
Greta the Great 🙂
dont know much abbout tate but Gregg abbott and Desantos should be charged they are doing egzacktly what the liberals hear were going on abbout foor years bu tpeople smugiling is okay when the government does it Tony abott and the stop the boats crowd have not condemed gregg abbots illegal actions in texsis
nath: “And plenty of people fake a bit of back pain to get some opiods for a weekend. ”
If they could access a substance with informed consent, they wouldn’t need to lie. Oh, and newsflah, the doctor probably knows when you’re lying. They’re just doing the validation of consent informally. It should be much more structured.
abbot is worse then tate he is the govinor and suposed to be respecting the rule off law gorge brandis who him self started the trawshing of rule of law with his atempt to distroy human rights comition and admin tribunal made a very good pointin his final speech
there are many topics on PB…thats what makes it interesting.
Cricket, submarines, Ukraine War, transport ideas, Climate Change, Leadershit, Trump, Uk politics, Covid, drug and alcohol policy, Rugby and its varients, US politics, Musk, SpaceX, Tesla, Twitter….yes, and soimetimes we discuss Australian Politcs Polling…….cant say I am enthused by all of the above topics and any others I fail to mention….but the breadth , passion, and in some cases, expertise with which they are discused/argued/bitched about makes this site all the more fascinating.
He claimed that progresives apose fredom of speech i dis a gree with but he said that conservatives are abandoningrespect of the rule of law and instatutions in faver of a intolerent populizm which respects niver the role of the courts like respectfoor judges or fredom used menzeys to explain his point
His statement seemed to be an attack on dutton but could also refer to trump not respecting the instatution of a free and fair election and shock jocks constantly attacking judges when sentensis dont go there way
Hopefully bidon can make a law that states can notsmuggle asylum seekers to other states it should be a verry serous offence yet disantos can continue on his anti gay retoreck he seems even moore dangerous then trump
Dog’s Brunch at 12:48 pm
One of these ?
https://www.flyfishfood.com/blogs/stillwater-tutorials/foam-arse-blob
More US weaponry being considered for deployment in Ukraine, this time an APC with anti-tank capability:
“The U.S. government is weighing sending Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine as part of a further package of military support, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. A final decision hasn’t yet been made. When the vehicles would be operational is also unclear, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue.
Mark Cancian, a former White House defense budget analyst, said that Bradleys would provide “a major increase in ground combat capability because it is, in effect, a light tank.” Cancian added that crews and maintainers would need to be trained on operating the vehicles.
“Unlike the previously provided M113s, the Bradley is heavily armed with a powerful 25mm gun and TOW anti-tank missiles. The United States has many Bradleys, though some are older and need upgrades, so inventory is not a problem,” Cancian, who’s now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told journalists. the end.”
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/bloomberg-us-considers-sending-bradley-fighting-vehicles-to-ukraine
“The U.S. government is weighing sending Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine as part of a further package of military support,”
Interesting if true. Quick search says that something like 4600 have been produced. Some for OS sales but suspect there are quite a few sitting in storage that can be activated fairly quickly.
25mm cannon means lots of ammo available straight away. Missiles?? Well, i think they mount a couple of TOW. Heavy antitank missile that the Ukrainians have already been supplied with and largely replaced in NATO with Javelin and NLAW. Again, lots of TOW that are well capable against reactive armor in various sheds in Europe / NATO.
Spare parts?? Likely there are a lot sitting in stocks in Europe.
This is in fact a problem for Ukraine. So many nations have donated such a lot of kit that the logistics of supplying it all and keeping up the maintenance…while storage and maintenance facilities are under constant threat of Russian cruise missiles…..must be a quartermasters nightmare. There are already reports that the Ukrainians are having trouble with their own and captured Russian era vehicles even with the vast amount captured from the various Russian Fwark ups. At some point they are going to need to coordinate that better and rationalize….buts that’s a very much lower order issue for them at the moment.
Still, a substantial number of Bradley’s in good nick is something i think the Ukrainians would put to good use pretty quickly. Thing is that much of the required new training is going to be in the care and feeding of Bradleys and not in how to use them operationally.
nath @ #1460 Friday, December 30th, 2022 – 12:08 pm
In my opinion that’s also not an unreasonable course of action if you’re unable to sleep normally due to covid (or other unpleasant ailment). Just don’t make a habit out of it. 😉
I don’t get where the Greens are heading with their federal cannabis legalisation bill. Cannabis laws regarding possession, growing and supply are largely state legalisation. States can legalise cannabis without the federal government becoming involved. A regulated cannabis market however should be a nationwide project but the first step should be to reform state drug laws.
imacca @ Friday, December 30, 2022 at 2:17 pm:
“Interesting if true….”
============
So far, Bloomberg seems to be the only source, though I’ve seen the Bloomberg report referenced in the Kyiv Independent (I linked above) and now the Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/.
This is a capability Ukraine hasn’t possessed yet, so if they are more than holding their own against the Russian Army now, this can only mean good things for their counter-offensive pushes against the occupiers in Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and elsewhere.
‘S. Simpson says:
Friday, December 30, 2022 at 2:24 pm
I don’t get where the Greens are heading with their….’
———–
ADD Stunt.
“This is a capability Ukraine hasn’t possessed yet, so if they are more than holding their own against the Russian Army now, this can only mean good things for their counter-offensive pushes against the occupiers in Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and elsewhere.”
Yup, will be interesting to see where it goes. I think the “weapons hype” for early 2023 regarding Ukraine may shape up to be 1 or two Ukrainian Brigades re-equipped with a combo of late Cold War spec Bradley and Leopard II.
I’m less than impressed with mental health help in Victoria.
Six months ago, a friend of my son & his partner died on their property. It was very traumatic for both of them; my son who discovered her body, and his partner who can’t forgive herself for not looking after her.
They reacted in different ways. She has gravitated towards her family, near lizzie’s habitat. And I fully support her this.
My son was having problems dealing with it, and accessed mental health support facilities, and his “supposed” therapist has advised him to leave his partner “because she hasn’t been supportive.” And continues to do so.
I find this despicable.
I advised him to find another mental health person.
imacca @ Friday, December 30, 2022 at 2:31 pm:
“Yup, will be interesting to see where it goes. I think the “weapons hype” for early 2023 regarding Ukraine may shape up to be 1 or two Ukrainian Brigades re-equipped with a combo of late Cold War spec Bradley and Leopard II.”
===========================
Taking a step back, the speed (or lack of) at which the US has ramped provision of weapons systems to Ukraine may be frustrating for Ukrainians, but wearing my “rest of the world” hat I do find the US’s very measured, deliberative approach to be reassuring that things won’t spiral out of control. A bit of good old-fashioned empirical “send in a bit more/better this time and see how it goes” from the US/NATO (combined with an ironclad resolution to stay the course) could be enough for a Ukrainian victory by this time next year. I firmly believe the Russian Army is a fragile shadow of what it was this time last year.
None of Your Beeswax @ #1461 Friday, December 30th, 2022 – 1:17 pm
You forgot recipes. 😀
“The state-run Belarus news agency BelTA reported that a Ukrainian S-300 missile had fallen on to the territory of Belarus during one of Russia’s largest missile attacks against Ukraine since the start of the war.
The Ukrainian ambassador was summoned to the foreign ministry in Minsk to receive a formal protest after the spokesperson for the ministry of foreign affairs said the missile landing on Belarussian soil was “extremely serious”.
Russia launched a wave of missile attacks across Ukraine on Thursday morning, with Ukraine’s air force claiming it shot down 54 Russian winged cruise missiles out of 69 launched into Ukraine from Rostov in Russia, the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/30/russia-ukraine-war-at-a-glance-what-we-know-on-day-310-of-the-invasion
================================
How many Russian missile/drones have been launched from Belarusian soil – with unprovoked aggression – to strike civilian targets in Ukraine, and Belarus protests a Ukrainian missile that was fired in legitimate self-defence against precisely this sort of attack??
“Мінськ має бути зруйнований.”
Been Theresays:
Friday, December 30, 2022 at 12:21 am
I work in Youth Justice, and have done for a long time.
Even now I have trouble dealing with the complexities involved.
Sideline warriors, you need to take a deep breath, it’s a very, very difficult field.
Not excusing anything, just making you all aware of things.
—————————-
As someone has already pointed out kids aren’t born as criminals. When i worked as a youth worker we had a saying that youth workers were people who waited at the narrows of a river and waded in to drag out the young people who had been thrown into the water further upstream. this job was never-ending and, seemingly contantly increasing.
The youth workers kept asking why someone upstream wasn’t stopping the young people being thrown in the water in the first place.
The announced measures by the QLD govt will do nothing to reduce crime. it will lead to more young people going into youth detention which is a university of crime.
We know from research that THE one strategy that works to reduce crime is to put resources into improving parenting skills. BUT it takes money and it takes time. and governments can look hairy-chested by increasing sentences and building more prisons.
I despair that even progressive governments go down this path when they know that many of these young people are indigenous and have had deprived upbringings because of poverty and neglect.
what i do know is that the announced measures will be praised by the shock jocks but will do nothing to reduce crime and will simply add to the number of lives destroyed by the justice system.
You forgot recipes.
————————
And spiders.
I made Jamie’s Bonkers Christmas Bread pudding again this year. Highly recommended. Find terries orange dark chocolate and put in whole segments. Fully sick.
Boer
Nicholas had a job guarantee proposal, presumably at the min-wage rate, plus a welfare transfer payments proposal
Unlike a UBI (which would be at a higher level) it’s unlikely either would be inflationary in and of itself, since it acts only with poor people, who spend most of their income on basic goods. It’s quite unusual for inflation to be driven by the price of eggs, milk or bread, for example. A case could be made for property rent, but it seems we have rampant inflation there already
Can someone please tell us what a UBI should be?
We’ve had a wide range of numbers mentioned – even the Greens can’t seem to agree on a set figure.
Nicholas’ proposal was far higher than any of the Greens’ proposals again, and considerably higher than figures we’ve seen suggested so far.
Now E.G.T is saying a UBI would be even higher than that.
So what’s the ballpark figure?
I don’t know about Lars, but I feel sure Nath is a lover not a fucker!
C@t (and anor)
Yes – George should give up politics (it’s a mug’s game) and re-invent himself on the international speakers’ circuit as an expert on “intersectional fantasy”
You know it makes sense
India wicketkeeper Rishabh Pant has been hospitalised following a car accident near Roorkee in Uttarakhand. According to local reports, the 25-year-old’s car collided with a road divider while travelling to New Delhi on Friday morning, with IndiaToday reporting that Pant said he had dozed off before the crash. The report also claimed Pant needed to break the car’s glass windshield to escape flames that engulfed his BMW.
What are people (“peeps”) reading for Christmas?
I have (with considerable debt to the reading list published in The Economist):
1 – Butler to the World – How Britain Helps the World’s Worst People Launder Money, Commit Crimes and Get Away with Anything
(this explains why the UK is fucked and moreover continuously fucks itself; it also hilariously interposes quotes from PG Wodehouse into the otherwise serious text. In particular they have prostituted their legal system in the service of international organised crime. Also makes a striking comparison between overseas France and the dregs of the British Empire; germane to both nations’ ability to operate globally)
2 – For Profit – A History of Corporations
3 – Slouching Towards Utopia – An Economic History of the 20th Century
(why has real growth been so low [and moreover, misdirected] relative to potential since 1870 [when the modern economy began]; why haven’t we solved all the various challenges faced, and then some; why have governments failed to do their duty [despite being elected, in contrast to previous eras])
4 – Strong Towns – A Bottom Up Revolution to Rebuild American Prosperity
(argues that modern American cities with ‘burbs and highways are inherently insolvent due to the increase in road and pipe (etc) maintenance costs that arise from urban dispersal)
5 – Confessions of a Recovering Engineer – Transportation for a Strong Town (same author as 4)
6 – The Are No Accidents – The Deadly Rise of Injury and Disaster – Who Profits and Who Pays the Price
(attempts to explain why the rate of industrial, transportation and public ‘accidents’ is so much higher in the USA than in comparand nations – basically the focus is on finding someone to blame, not preventing the problem)
7 – Chip Wars
(about the advanced semiconductor industry – Taiwan, South Korea, USA)
Arky:
This point cannot be stressed enough
It’s the job insecurity (leading to housing insecurity) rather the low pay rate (within reason) that does the real harm
The deal should be that low paid get good job security—a job guarantee, even—in exchange for accepting low pay. That’s a “tough but fair” deal most people in that situation will accept. This does need to be coupled with free high quality education for the next generation (again a “tough but fair” deal most people will accept)
Macarthur/Imacca
“ Yup, will be interesting to see where it goes. I think the “weapons hype” for early 2023 regarding Ukraine may shape up to be 1 or two Ukrainian Brigades re-equipped with a combo of late Cold War spec Bradley and Leopard II.”
This is pretty significant in terms of the Ukrainian army transitioning from a defensive to an attacking army.
There were several models of Bradley over time. Anything post Gulf War I (1992) will have a TOW2 missile and appliqué armour package. The TOW2 will deal with any of the Soviet era tanks; only the T80 or T90 with ERA armour would stop it.
The appliqué armour would stop most Russian infantry weapons. Tank rounds would still destroy them but that is true of most APCs or IFVs. This would allow the Ukraine infantry to safely advance under fire. So this vehicle would allow Ukraine forces to attack any but the very first rank of well equipped Russian infantry units. It could assist breaking through front lines.
Also the Bradley (and Leopard II) have diesel engines so Ukraine could more easily supply them than Abrams. Spare parts is still a big issue for sure.
E.G.Theodore,
I’m reading, ‘Victory-The Inside Story of Labor’s Return To Power’
by Peter van Onselen and Wayne Errington
“I’m reading, ‘Victory-The Inside Story of Labor’s Return To Power’”
Of course you are, C@t 🙂
Enjoy!
Erin Neutron:
Isn’t it the Mann Act? Used (inter alia) to prosecute Jack Johnson to driving his wife (de facto?) accross state lines.
Is it still on the books?
Unfortunately it has been amended to restrict its application to sex trafficking, no longer does it include trafficking “for any other immoral purpose”…
C@tmommasays:
Friday, December 30, 2022 at 2:46 pm
You forgot recipes.
_____________________
And the coming and goings of your family.
How’s that uncle of yours going ? The one that was sacked as a baggage handler by QANTAS during the pandemic.
Is he still still working as a handyman ?
I’m reading form guides.
But I did endure earlier today an ex partner whom is downsizing possessions ring and inter alia excitedly read out aloud a couple of paragraphs of a 70 yr old School Reader.
Remember those?
E.G.T. ‘… the [Mann] act made it a felony to engage in interstate or foreign commerce transport of “any woman or girl for the purpose of prostitution or debauchery, or for any other immoral purpose”.’
‘any other immoral purpose’ reminds me of the arrivals card for passengers landing in the USA.
One of the questions asks if you’ve ever been convicted of ‘crimes of moral turpitude’ … a matter of interpretation, presumably.
Taylormade @ #1490 Friday, December 30th, 2022 – 4:22 pm
Taylormade,
Don’t be disingenuous! You tell us snippets of your life as well. 😐
And the comment was relevant to Qantas having laid off baggage handlers then not having enough to do the job post Covid. And, yes, my brother is still doing his handyman job, thanks for asking. 🙂
Female teachers once faced sacking for ‘marriage or other immoral acts’.
I’m reading an old classic. George R Stewart’s The Earth Abides.
Thinking about reading Bill Shortens book ‘For the Common Good’. Just for a laugh.
Herald Sun 30/12
Suicides in Victoria are at a horror five-year high, with at least 686 deaths so far this year.
It compares to 638 deaths last year in the same time frame, 637 in 2020, 634 in 2019 and 635 in 2018.
The rise in deaths comes as the federal government slashes the number of subsidised mental health sessions available to people seeking help by half from January 1, in a move that has been widely condemned by psychologists and doctors.
_____________________
Kezza’s post reminded me that I read this earlier today.
Not good, and it’s going to get worse with the Albanese cuts to mental health.
5 teenagers around Ballarat this year.
goll says:
Friday, December 30, 2022 at 9:44 am
Good to see Nath getting rebuked for trying to inject some humour into these pages. I agree that, since the subject moved to the dairy industry, there was no need for Nath’s bullocks.
Kezza – it would be very odd for an actual psych to do something like recommend leaving a partner (unless they were convinced they were abusive) but I don’t know what sort of people are seen under the banner of “mental health professional” these days. There’s a lot of quacks around calling themselves counsellors or whatever.
Also should be noted sometimes people lie – someone thinking about leaving their partner might fly a trial flag with you by saying their therapist said it when really they are the one who doesn’t feel their partner is supportive.
Taylormade
It would seem you have a naive belief that government spending programmes “just work” – “just add money”…
I wouldn’t be mentioning that at your next Liberal party branch meeting, if I were you!
Simon Henny Penny Katich @ #1478 Friday, December 30th, 2022 – 2:59 pm
I made Jamie’s Roast Chicken. Never fails. His Pistachio Cake is to die for as well. 😀
It’s more than a bit grubby of Taylormade to link suicides to a particular Labor policy.
Which is why I chose to include in the Dawn Patrol someone expressing the alternate pov. Maybe you didn’t see it, Taylormade? Here you are:
Professor Ian Hickie has an opposing view:
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/halving-the-number-of-subsided-psych-sessions-is-a-good-idea-20221218-p5c7ad.html
🙂