Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July to December (open thread)

Relatively modest leads for the Coalition among Queenslanders, Christians and those 65-and-over, with Labor dominant everywhere else.

As it usually does on Boxing Day, The Australian has published quarterly aggregates of Newspoll with state and demographic breakdowns, on this occasion casting an unusually wide net from its polling all the way back to July to early this month, reflecting the relative infrequency of its results over this time. The result is a combined survey of 5771 respondents that finds Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (a swing of about 3.5% to Labor compared with the election), 57-43 in Victoria (about 2%), 55-45 in Western Australia (no change) and 57-43 in South Australia (a 4.0% swing), while trailing 51-49 in Queensland a 3% swing).

Gender breakdowns show only a slight gap, with Labor leading 54-46 among men and 56-44 among women, with the Greens as usual stronger among women among men. Age cohort results trend from 65-35 to Labor for 18-to-34 to 54-46 to the Coalition among 65-plus, with the Greens respectively on 24% and 3%. Little variation is recorded according to education or income, but Labor are strongest among part-time workers and weakest among the retired, stronger among non-English speakers but well ahead either way, and 62-38 ahead among those identifying as of no religion but 53-47 behind among Christians. You can find all the relevant data, at least for voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,276 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July to December (open thread)”

Comments Page 31 of 46
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  1. I had an abusive partner. I took advantage of the free psychologist sessions. They were very careful not to recommend any particular course of action. As I would expect it is their legal responsibility not to do.

  3. Lest people like Adam Bandt and his parroters forget, the compensation to energy companies is paid “where coal power producers have actual costs exceeding the $125 price cap”

    This is because if it costs more to produce than they will be paid to sell it, they will simply not produce the power and there will be blackouts.

    Also it is likely under our constitution that there would be an argument that the government has acquired the energy compulsorily without payment of compensation on “just terms” if they did NOT do this.

    But it’s all too easy for Bandt to peddle smears about this without worrying about the truth. How to actually legally implement simon-pure policies is never his concern…

    450m has already been denied by Albanese and seems to be one of those scare figures that gets into the media with nothing to back it.

  4. For those of you wanting to be terrified of China, the 28/12/2022 breaking points podcast has the second or third segment on how tick tok must be banned because it will destroy the minds of under 30’s and lead to … lots of bad things.

    Disclaimer: I listen to a lot of podcasts from all sorts of people, some of whom may have been cancelled by the intelligence here on twitter, my suggestion that it might be interesting to someone keen to be scared sh1tless about China does not mean I endorse the ideas presented, the solutions mulled over nor the presenters who may have done many many things to be cancelled. It just means to me it was an idea the expression of was interesting.

    Having said that Saagar is a complete idiot and Krystal demeans herself and any person of thinking ability by having the much discredited ‘both sides’ framing presented, an more so by having Saagar present the other side.

  5. I can’t imagine tiktok is embuggering our under 30s more than Facebook and YouTube embuggerated over 30s by amplifying and force-feeding right wing media wingnuttery to as wide an audience as possible.

    If China wanted to use tiktok to destroy the West they would encourage tiktok to relentlessly push the same shit FB and YouTube push instead of dances, odd fashion trends and weird memes.

    So far the under 30s seem to be doing pretty well (cf recent election demographics).

    I can imagine to a right wing nutter the Tiktok generation might seem scary – let them be terrified!

  7. Reading Beevor’s Russia; Revolution & Civil War. Rereading Don Watsons American Journeys (because I can’t get into The Bush and I loved American Journeys). And later – Otherlands by Thomas Halliday.

    In between smashing my children at table tennis (although the eldest is getting close to double figures thanks mostly to leniency on my part and cheating on hers).

  8. The owners of TikTok, ByteDance, have actually set up a social media site in China that is in competition with WeChat and it was the vehicle by which images of China’s Covid explosion came to the West’s media.

  12. C@t, yes, and I have lots of mint – although getting through it in salads and icecreams (the chickens need to catch up as I need more yolks).

  13. Arky at 5:39 pm
    You can hear all the General Rippers …………….

    I can no longer sit back and allow Communist infiltration, Communist indoctrination, Communist subversion and the international Communist conspiracy to sap and impurify all of our precious bodily fluids.

  14. “I can’t imagine tiktok is embuggering our under 30s more than Facebook and YouTube embuggerated over 30s by amplifying and force-feeding right wing media wingnuttery to as wide an audience as possible.

    If China wanted to use tiktok to destroy the West they would encourage tiktok to relentlessly push the same shit FB and YouTube push instead of dances, odd fashion trends and weird memes.

    So far the under 30s seem to be doing pretty well (cf recent election demographics).

    I can imagine to a right wing nutter the Tiktok generation might seem scary – let them be terrified!”

    Yeah listening to it, the deliberate, and no doubt correct, use of ‘under 30’s’ and hyperbolic suggestions ‘they all’ are listening to it / watching it all day and night, gave it a lot of ‘Tetris is a russian invention to destroy the youth’ vibes. I was a huge tetris fan in the day, although many here would testify it did destroy my brain so perhaps they were right.

    There was however really really interesting stuff on soft power and the effectiveness of propaganda.

    Not discussed at all in the podcast, but if the ‘tick tok must be banned to save us from Chinese propaganda’ idea is correct, and I’m not saying it is at all, but if there is actually something scarry about big data and AI deployed deliberately for propaganda purposes, then that idea implies the ‘open market place of ideas’ does not work.

    Also, again assuming the idea is correct, and I’m not at all sure it is, I can’t see any reason except for typical USA’s inability to see past its own borders, why banning something because the Chinese might use it for evil is good, but then banning Murdoch isn’t.

    Now I’m aware they aren’t a functioning democracy, they have a corrupt supreme court and a dodgy constitution that would probably stop the banning of Murdoch, but again I’m more interested in the idea. If the idea of banning tick tok is good, then the idea of banning Murdoch / Musk / etc etc choose the propagandist you most dislike, might also be good. I’m not saying banning anything is good, I’m playing with the idea.

    It is also interesting to me, I suspect not to others, because I think Chinese soft power is actually a thing, and a thing they are getting better and better at using. And in many ways this does make them a real threat. Even if it is essentially just the same threat every single billionaire poses, but at a national level, of a nation that has a huge population.

    Still that plays into my priors and prejudices, and leads to my conclusion that there is absolutely nothing stupider than all the military chest thumping we see as a response to the soft power threat of China. But because that all playing into my priors I’m just noting it, one needs to be careful with ones priors or one might get carried away.

  17. Icecream only for Xmas hols for me.

    Tiktok etc.
    The apps aren’t the problem. It is the phone manufacturers and legislators. It is still way too hard to maintain control over your data. Even harder for children’s phones as even the once good IPhone parental controls have slipped badly. The conspiracy theorist in me thinks there is dodgy deals being done dirt cheap.

  18. Poliphilisays:
    Friday, December 30, 2022 at 4:46 pm
    goll says:
    Friday, December 30, 2022 at 9:44 am

    “Good to see Nath getting rebuked for trying to inject some humour into these pages. I agree that, since the subject moved to the dairy industry, there was no need for Nath’s bullocks.”

    The man’s just grazing for greener “grass”.

  19. “It is the phone manufacturers and legislators. It is still way too hard to maintain control over your data. Even harder for children’s phones as even the once good IPhone parental controls have slipped badly. The conspiracy theorist in me thinks there is dodgy deals being done dirt cheap.”

    I agree completely, that it seems a much smarter solution to the perceived problem, assuming there is actually a problem, and it is a solution to a range of abuses that exist even if there is no China soft power problem. No brainer really.

    That also happens to feed into the ‘anti-trust’ core of the problem and the bad behaviours of the ‘corporation’ as an idea, and the much worse behaviours of monopolies and other forms or market power.

    There was a flurry of pods as the authors of chokepoint capitalism plugged their book. Again really interesting idea, and some really interesting solutions that actual democracies could solve relatively easily but that our late- capitalist failed democracies can’t.

  20. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, December 30, 2022 at 5:10 pm
    Simon Henny Penny Katich @ #1478 Friday, December 30th, 2022 – 2:59 pm

    You forgot recipes.
    ————————
    And spiders.

    I made Jamie’s Bonkers Christmas Bread pudding again this year. Highly recommended. Find terries orange dark chocolate and put in whole segments. Fully sick.
    I made Jamie’s Roast Chicken. Never fails. His Pistachio Cake is to die for as well.
    ——————————————————————————————-

    Mouth watering………verging now on drooling, yum.

  21. Today has been a damp day, the second such day of life changes. And so, a fork is chosen, and life goes on. And in that context, the approaching Australian Open reminds me how much I miss Ash Barty’s tennis, and how she too took a fork.

    “What’s been most surprising in a good way is that I’ve slipped quite seamlessly into this life that’s just like everyone else, which is kind of always what I wanted.”

    “The more time I’ve had to sit and think and absorb this year, I think it is never in the sense of me competing professionally again,” she said. “But I’ll never not be involved in the sport. So I think that’s where I’ll always get my tennis fix, that taste of the sport that gave me so much.”

    Unlocked
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/28/sports/tennis/ashleigh-barty-retirement.html?unlocked_article_code=ZQcVjlJ5thDOUHv2hw-WsEyBTCIacjvXW6jUSjR3GkPt8qcG-zEhElYZTvfEX5wKWRy6RmkPrlQKWaO89lCmlnJUpI9qclFBg-6xQPdM0OnB7J9tfEoBwNF1UbRELQMF4YJFlofg03mZ2JaxQMie_M03gC3I4mnUffx6iZcZCvlsuJ0ntzAt1RWrJtuSMZXH5aE6YVShtFVyzar8ccUfsADRJNTLg9fCs9R5atD7WOesCIvYvhPlCfbvlyBaXo81mUDEpQQNaYgqSsQoBWZfidI50y6l-YYJNW4H9s0xW9u_Vye_jMlus0TI3A1lPNN9elHTXPiaxVk1vXcrXeX-dPzeKvqySDfNQLM&smid=share-url

  22. Just to clarify – the $620 a week for a single person is not some random number. It is the current poverty line using the Henderson Report methodology. The Henderson poverty line is far more meaningful than the alternatives (and there are two main ones – defining poverty as incomes below 50 percent or 60 percent of the median income). The Henderson method assesses what it actually costs to meet basic needs – it is grounded in reality – whereas defining poverty as a percentage of the nation’s median income is arbitrary and disconnected from reality.

    Also, I don’t advocate a UBI (which would definitely be inflationary). The $620 a week would be targeted at people who need income support. In a fully employed economy, where a Job Guarantee program creates minimum wage public sector jobs on demand for anyone who wants to participate, the number of people needing income support would be smaller than the status quo.

    My understanding is that the Greens advocate income support of $88 per day ($616 per week). So they are using the Henderson poverty line rather than the 50 or 60 percent of median income poverty lines, which are much lower.

    Incidentally I want the minimum wage to be lifted from $20 an hour to $25 because this is justified by the productivity growth of the past 40 years or so. But a Job Guarantee and $620 per week Centrelink benefits would still be worth doing without that.

  23. Catching up with people’s comments on holiday reading, I read plenty on submarines last year, if anyone wants more 😀

    I also read the Thucydides Trap by Graham Allison. I meant to comment on it earlier. It is a dense read and I suspect many only skim it. IMO many of the criticisms of the book in a John Menadue article quoted earlier today are not fair.

    The book points out that the Trap is not inevitable and has been avoided roughly 1/4 of the time in Allison’s historical survey of the past 400 years. Worth a read if you have time.

    At Christmas I got Antony Beevor’s “Russia: Revolution and Civil War” to try to understand how Russian/Soviet/Russian history became such a mess. It is his latest book written just before the Ukraine invasion. I have only read a few pages so far but immediately there are some sharp impressions:
    – Russian society was very violent before, during and after the Soviet era; many of its social attitudes are still somewhat feudal, simply with nobles replaced by first communist officials, now oligarchs. In fact, a lot of the early bolshevik leaders were from minor noble families.
    – the Bolsheviks, regardless of justifying philosophy, became extremely violent within weeks of seizing power
    – the pressures that drove this were internal (i.e. internal to Russia and the Bolsheviks) not external. External pressure came later, but only in response to the first massacres.

    Still that is only an opening impression. I’m sure there will be a happy ending…

    Beevor is one of my favourite popular historians. I consider him an excellent writer.

  25. We Want Paul, do you like Kyle Kulinski’s Secular Talk YouTube channel? I find his perspective on US politics pretty interesting.

    I agree that Saagar on Breaking Points has a lot of misguided takes. But he challenges corporate power and Republican Party politicians a lot more than a typical conservative commentator.

  26. i think the greens bill on legalised canibas in the senate is simply a stunt to triy andtake onthe new legalise canibus party to get the support back that has drifted to them in time foor nsw election in march shoebridge is clearly positioning since he became a senater to be bandts successor when he steps down posibly with thorp as deputy

  28. Nicholas:

    Incidentally I want the minimum wage to be lifted from $20 an hour to $25 because this is justified by the productivity growth of the past 40 years or so. But a Job Guarantee and $620 per week Centrelink benefits would still be worth doing without that.

    As Arky and other have mentioned, job (in)security is a big problem for min wage earners. So I think the priority should be on that. All things considered (social effects etc), paying min wage earners with job security is relatively inexpensive. There is a question as to who pays – but a government job guarantee for min wage earners probably pays its way

  29. Our area relies heavily on tourism, but work is seasonal. However, it would be possible for businesses in the valleys to link with those in the alpine resorts to enable workers to be employed all year round.

    If this happened, I’d like to see some kind of contract – one that says this worker is guaranteed work all year, will earn a minimum of X per week, and specifies who they would be working for.

    The next step would be for this kind of contract to have legal status, so it could be used in the way other work contracts are, when the worker is seeking accommodation or buying a house.

  31. sprocket_says:
    Friday, December 30, 2022 at 7:06 pm
    nath’s motto on this blog is

    ‘Milk it for all it is worth’

    **********************************************************
    Curdled ?

  32. zoomster at 6:04pm

    If this happened, I’d like to see some kind of contract – one that says this worker is guaranteed work all year, will earn a minimum of X per week, and specifies who they would be working for.

    Hmm. Who would the employee’s contract be with? All I can think of is that it would need to be an overarching company, with its own independent contracts with each employer. How would that be set up? And the overarching company would need to be paid for its trouble. I don’t know. It seems cumbersome. ?

  33. goll says:
    Friday, December 30, 2022 at 6:10 pm

    I had always thought that Nath was a provocative look-me-sort of person who sometimes acts like he enjoys pulling the wings from a butterfly.
    All that said, he mostly offers light-hearted banter and a bit of humour to the blog – particularly now that his anti-Shorten barbs are passé.

    Much better Nath than a lot of the incessant commentary on the open thread accompanied by the Leninesk statements. I’m with Rex and Pi re a dedicated thread.

  35. Poliphili says:

    All that said, he mostly offers light-hearted banter
    ______________________
    I’ve never been so insulted.
    I’m the Devil himself, or at least one of his top commanders.

  37. ”
    Lars Von Triersays:
    Friday, December 30, 2022 at 11:34 am
    Casual employment numbers have been the same for the last 30 yrs.

    It’s spin that there’s a Charles dickens underclass out there.
    ”

    This is IPA Lars.
    Wrong. Casual employment rate has increased over last 30 years.

    IMO, Lars ID is handled by 4 Lars.
    1. Irish Lars, who posts mostly during night and converses with OC about Irish politics.
    2. A somewhat sane Lars. 🙂
    3. IPA Lars, who wants to own Labs.
    4. Supporter of Libs but was supporter of ALP (I am not too sure about this)

  39. nath: “I’m the Devil himself, or at least one of his top commanders.”

    “But what’s puzzling you
    Is the nature of my game …”

  40. WWP: That’s a great comment and I might come back to it when I have more time later tonight.

    I just wanted to make the facetious reply now to:
    “then that idea implies the ‘open market place of ideas’ does not work.”
    and say no shit, the journalistic refrain of “sunlight is the best disinfectant” was pretty comprehensively disproven by the Trump era if not earlier.

    I remember in particular when the ABC tried to justify giving Steve Bannon a platform on the sunlight basis. That might have been the moment segments of AusPol finally twigged that Bannon got more out of exposure and being on a trusted brand than he lost from being fact checked with a damp lettuce by a journalist.

    “A lie can go around the world before the truth has got its boots on” is the aphorism that stood the test of time. After all, isn’t the Federal Liberal Party’s domination from Howard to Morrison based on it, from Children Overboard to death taxes?

    But Trump ultimately lost. Morrison ultimately lost. So there’s limits (yay).

  41. Congressman-elect Santos, who’s due to be sworn in on Jan, 3, should do very well in the GOP after lying about his personal antecedents: education, religion, professional qualifications, and financial distress, which include evictions & failure to pay arrears of rent. He should be facing criminal charges, on the basis of that those who voted for him were unaware that he’s a serial liar, a fraud, & a pissant – qualities he shares in common with big Bwana. I mean, for example, “I’m Jew-ish.” If he’s sworn in, I predict he won’t last longer than a snowflake.

  42. If you have a dedicated Ukraine thread it goes off the agenda as an important current affair really quickly. Which is what Putin wants. For people in the West with short attention spans to get bored with it. I don’t like that idea at all.

  44. Not that I think we have a vote, but to the extent William takes these things into account I’m with C@t on the “no separate Ukraine thread” point.

  45. Duttonis in moore touble of a leadership chalinge then bandt is at this point desbite his failure to get any candadates up Matt kean or gladis might be the only hope foor the liberals to have a chance with aslightly moore moderit leader Dutton will certainly apose the voice to parliament he was one of the few that refused to support rudds apoligy and does not seem to regreet said it was a mistake because of ofense basickly arguing in his pres conference that he wassory foor ofense i dont think he realy regrets his sdesition especialy as he went on a rant about demestick violents

  46. A tsunami of coronavirus infections in China is causing shortages of key drugs across the region as relatives and friends living overseas ship painkillers and antivirals from abroad, driving up prices and forcing some stores to cap purchases.

    South Korea’s health ministry warned this week that it would punish the sale of “excessive amounts” of cold medicine to an individual patient, after local media reported that a Chinese customer had bought 6 million won ($7000) worth of drugs in Hanam city in Gyeonggi Province.

    Some pharmacies in Taiwan are running low on Panadol cold and flu tablets, while Bloomberg News visited 20 dispensaries in Hong Kong that were out of Panadol and Coltalin pills. Beijing’s decision to abruptly remove most pandemic restrictions with little preparation is driving an unprecedented number of cases, leaving hospitals and funeral homes overwhelmed.

    Almost 37 million people were possibly infected on a single day last week, according to estimates from the government’s top health authority. That has led to a dearth of critical over-the-counter medicines locally, fuelling the surge in cross-border shipments. Shen Tsai-Ying, a pharmacist in Taipei, said Panadol was out of stock, and staff were instructed to refuse sales of more than 80 pills of antipyretics to help prevent stockpiling.

    “We’re worried that Taiwanese people who work in China or have Chinese spouses will hoard and send antipyretics back,” Huang Chin Shun, chairman of the Taiwan Pharmacists Association, said in an interview. Ibuprofen, paracetamol and Pfizer’s Paxlovid are among the most sought-after medicines in China, but the supply crunch is forcing residents to queue for hours outside stores.

    https://www.afr.com/world/asia/china-covid-wave-sparks-desperate-drug-scramble-across-region-20221230-p5c9j2#Echobox=1672380121

  47. I have often thought a separate thread for witty, erudite posters would be good but I realised how lonely I’d get there – so…. content to slum it here with you lot.

  48. Duttons bigest problim is his constant sexxualization of woman he might do all right as a qld opposition leader talking about crime and stering up fears how ever he could not savethen opposition last time when he was used as her spokesman as the publick face against palasczk and his atempt to be abbtott going abbout high energgy bills failed when he voted against lower pricesdesbite atempts to damage Albanese he comes a crross like a nice guy sort of no thrills like he just happind to be pm sort of howard like not the arogents of a morrison or keating

  49. Simon Henny Penny Katich says:
    Friday, December 30, 2022 at 8:13 pm

    I have often thought a separate thread for witty, erudite posters would be good but I realised how lonely I’d get there – so…. content to slum it here with you lot.
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Ya got ‘ Gimme Shelter’ here.
    Not to mention Lady Gaga (C@t)

  50. Simon Henny Penny Katich:

    Friday, December 30, 2022 at 8:13 pm

    [‘…but I realised how lonely I’d get there – so…. content to slum it here with you lot.’]

    Please stop putting yourself down.

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