Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July to December (open thread)

Relatively modest leads for the Coalition among Queenslanders, Christians and those 65-and-over, with Labor dominant everywhere else.

As it usually does on Boxing Day, The Australian has published quarterly aggregates of Newspoll with state and demographic breakdowns, on this occasion casting an unusually wide net from its polling all the way back to July to early this month, reflecting the relative infrequency of its results over this time. The result is a combined survey of 5771 respondents that finds Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (a swing of about 3.5% to Labor compared with the election), 57-43 in Victoria (about 2%), 55-45 in Western Australia (no change) and 57-43 in South Australia (a 4.0% swing), while trailing 51-49 in Queensland a 3% swing).

Gender breakdowns show only a slight gap, with Labor leading 54-46 among men and 56-44 among women, with the Greens as usual stronger among women among men. Age cohort results trend from 65-35 to Labor for 18-to-34 to 54-46 to the Coalition among 65-plus, with the Greens respectively on 24% and 3%. Little variation is recorded according to education or income, but Labor are strongest among part-time workers and weakest among the retired, stronger among non-English speakers but well ahead either way, and 62-38 ahead among those identifying as of no religion but 53-47 behind among Christians. You can find all the relevant data, at least for voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,276 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July to December (open thread)”

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  1. wonder if kean or gladis if she is cleared will run desbite nicki sava leading the campaign to bring back Frydenberg like her former bos Costellow he will remain a pertential leader Frydenberg has disapeared from the media since his los and unlike costelow he has no obvous leadership qualities and not a serplus or strong economick record to his name i think he would be an other turnbull who the media Crow sava talked up but the publick did not have the same opinion as the pres galary frydenberg did not like julia banks and tried to save kevin andrews

  2. Thanks Mavis. Who knows how high I could soar.

    But seriously, if there is one thing that gets me antsy on PB, it is the requests for seperate threads. If posters don’t like the cross chat, go start your own blog. IMO, it makes the place richer – like a good sauce.

  3. i agree that a seperate ucrane thread would not be good how ever it is taking up a lot of the forukm bermingham foor a moderit seems to be leaning in to opposition of the voice he seems very boereing when he is interviewed basickly telling us nothing and sticking to the talking point dreyfuss is simelar from labors end i remember one 60 minutes when berminghams talking points were intrupted and he got very anoyed he was actualy questiond in stead of droaning on about nothing

  5. Zoomster:

    Our area relies heavily on tourism, but work is seasonal. However, it would be possible for businesses in the valleys to link with those in the alpine resorts to enable workers to be employed all year round.

    If this happened, I’d like to see some kind of contract – one that says this worker is guaranteed work all year, will earn a minimum of X per week, and specifies who they would be working for.

    The next step would be for this kind of contract to have legal status, so it could be used in the way other work contracts are, when the worker is seeking accommodation or buying a house.

    Call Therese Rein

  10. nath:
    I’m the Devil himself, or at least one of his top commanders.

    No you’re not. You’re just a naughty little boy. 😐

  12. “We Want Paul, do you like Kyle Kulinski’s Secular Talk YouTube channel? I find his perspective on US politics pretty interesting.

    I agree that Saagar on Breaking Points has a lot of misguided takes. But he challenges corporate power and Republican Party politicians a lot more than a typical conservative commentator.”

    I will check Kyle K out, disappointing youtube hasn’t ever made the link.

    It is possible I’m too harsh on Saagar, but he has literally given me ‘turn it off now’ moments.

  14. Oh Gods, spare me the Thucydides Trap. Nobody doubts that war is historically common between major powers but hardly inevitable but cherry picking examples across millennia (and a couple of the examples like WW1 are gigantic stretches to make comparable) means fuck all for a modern situation with nuclear weapons involved and governments a bit more sophisticated than ancient city states.

    Also much as the Chinese want to propagandise that they are inevitably going to take over from a stagnant West as the major power, citation needed, especially with the well known demographic problems, the fact they are still miles behind on tech, the self-inflicted economic growth damage of the pandemic, and seeing what happened to Russia when they underestimated the rest of the world’s willingness to resist warmongers…

  16. Harsh on Birmingham. His exceptional skill is staying on message. That equated to saying nothing in the last days of Morrison but when they have a message to prosecute he’s good at in a zero flair kind of way.

  18. Question: if there’s a dedicated thread on a topic, does that mean comments on that topic are actually forbidden on the open thread? I notice there are frequently dedicated threads on state-level politics, and also occasional overseas politics threads by Adrian Beaumont. However, despite the presence of these dedicated threads, there are still comments on state-level and international politics here on the open thread. Am I right to deduce from this that the answer to my question is, therefore, “no”?

    When it comes to topics suitable for dedicated threads, I also think they are mainly short-term topics such as particular elections or polls, or maybe a monarch’s passing. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, though, has been going for 1o months now, and could well go for years. How would a dedicated thread for that work? Fresh threads would need to be posted at least weekly, so they don’t fall so far down the page as to slide off readers’ radars.

    Nevertheless, I am not a fan of dedicated threads anyway. It is not a serious imposition on anyone to suggest they scroll past anything they don’t want to engage with. I certainly do it all the time on this blog and I don’t mind at all.

    My suspicion, though, is that the issue for some here is that they don’t want Ukraine’s plight discussed very much at all. Maybe the topic makes some of them feel uncomfortable for some reason. Many of the possible reasons are quite benign. But I think some actually want the topic to slide off as many people’s radars as possible, in any forum they have any input into. I fiercely oppose any efforts to brush Russia’s brutal invasion of innocent Ukraine under the carpet. I don’t care how many here want to ostracise me for doing so.

  21. Macarthur:

    Friday, December 30, 2022 at 9:13 pm

    [‘I fiercely oppose any efforts to brush Russia’s brutal invasion of innocent Ukraine under the carpet. I don’t care how many here want to ostracise me for doing so.’]

    Few if any on here don’t support Ukraine – you should view it axiomatically. That said, on a mainly political blog, you do, in my firm view, overdo it, tantamount to assuming bludgers are mushrooms.

  23. Macarthur, time to put your words to the test. PB will fully fund you as a merchant of death on the battlefield. We will equip you with the finest weaponry, body armor, and kit. You will then be deployed to the streets of Bakhmut to begin your assault on Russian positions. Put up or shut up.

  24. I had assumed that the push to ban TikTok was simply another Huawei. In so far as the tech developed was competitive and surpassing what the Americans could control and deliver and as such it had to be banned? Tiktok has sailed past insta and facebook now. Huawei was developing some great tech that would have surpassed samsung in the android space and its enterprise level 5G stuff appeared to be streets ahead of the competition.

  25. This is not good:

    China’s president Xi Jinping to make state visit to Russia in spring
    Reuters reports that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, said on Friday he was expecting the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, to make a state visit to Russia in spring 2023.

    In introductory remarks from a video conference between the two leaders broadcast on state television, Putin said the importance of Russia-China relations was rising as a stabilising factor, and that he aimed to deepen military cooperation between the two countries.

    Rueters has a little more detail on the televised remarks between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping as the presidents of Russia and China traded remarks.

    Putin said: “We are expecting you, dear Mr Chairman, dear friend, we are expecting you next spring on a state visit to Moscow.”

    He said the visit would “demonstrate to the world the closeness of Russian-Chinese relations”.

    Speaking for about eight minutes, Putin said Russia-China relations were growing in importance as a stabilising factor, and that he aimed to deepen military cooperation between the two countries.

    In a response that lasted around a quarter as long, Xi said China was ready to increase strategic cooperation with Russia against the backdrop of what he called a “difficult” situation in the world at large.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/dec/30/russia-ukraine-war-live-kyiv-residents-urged-to-shelter-in-late-night-drone-attack-targeting-infrastructure

  28. nath says:
    Friday, December 30, 2022 at 9:31 pm
    Macarthur, time to put your words to the test. PB will fully fund you as a merchant of death on the battlefield. We will equip you with the finest weaponry, body armor, and kit. You will then be deployed to the streets of Bakhmut to begin your assault on Russian positions. Put up or shut up.
    ___________________________________________________________
    What do you mean nath? Are you suggesting that no one can support Ukraine’s struggle against the Russian invasion, unless they’re prepared to go and fight in Ukraine themselves?
    Macarthur and a few other posters, including me, are supportive of Ukraine’s struggle, a fight the Ukrainian people are determined to wage and one for which they call on the rest of the world to support them in.
    In our own little ways on this blog, posters are doing exactly that. I don’t think they deserve your splenetic comments.

  29. nath @ Friday, December 30, 2022 at 9:31 pm:
    Macarthur, time to put your words to the test. PB will fully fund you as a merchant of death on the battlefield. We will equip you with the finest weaponry, body armor, and kit. You will then be deployed to the streets of Bakhmut to begin your assault on Russian positions. Put up or shut up.
    ==============

    Nath, no thanks. Don’t think I will. But thank you for sharing with us all what you think of a person urging support for Ukrainian resistance to Russia’s attempt at genocide against them: “merchant of death”. It took you a while, but don’t you feel better just speaking freely?

  30. E.G.Theodore/C@t

    “Simon Birmingham is the epitome of an empty suit.

    All Suit and No Senator?”

    Having seen Simon Birmingham at the Sturt booth while doing HTVs at this election, without a suit he looked elegantly dressed, like a picture from a country road catalogue. He said nothing of course.

  31. wranslide @ Friday, December 30, 2022 at 9:34 pm:
    Nath. Are you sure its not an AI robot that has been pointed at this blog as a place of ‘influence’.
    =============•=

    What do they say: to a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

  32. Socrates @ #1581 Friday, December 30th, 2022 – 10:03 pm

    E.G.Theodore/C@t

    “Simon Birmingham is the epitome of an empty suit.

    All Suit and No Senator?”

    Having seen Simon Birmingham at the Sturt booth while doing HTVs at this election, without a suit he looked elegantly dressed, like a picture from a country road catalogue. He said nothing of course.

    An empty country road? 🙂

  34. “This is not good:

    China’s president Xi Jinping to make state visit to Russia in spring
    Reuters reports that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, said on Friday he was expecting the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, to make a state visit to Russia in spring 2023.”

    Well……..lots can happen between now and Spring. Cant really see Xi wanting to get too obviously involved on the losing side, and there is a fair chance that by Spring, Russia will be losing worse than they are now.

    Putin may find that at best the Chinese will try to help out in “freezing” the conflict politically.

    But…it will probably be at the cost of Putin having to swallow China being seen as the Senior Partner.

    Xi has his own agenda, particularly a domestic one which is always be seen as Strong and The Man with A Plan who is In Control.

    Oh……. any cooperation will be publicly spun as a Partner Ship between Great Nations who are moving with the Inevitable Tide of History, standing against those Colonialist Bastards of the West…but everyone will know that its Putin cap in hand to Xi.

    That may take a while to filter through the Russian media that Putin has sold Russia’s arse to Xi but it will get out there which is not good for Putin medium / long term.

    Probably better than outright and obvious military defeat short term though. 🙁

  36. “You will then be deployed to the streets of Bakhmut to begin your assault on Russian positions. Put up or shut up.”

    doGs but you are a superciliously nasty wanker nath. 🙁

  37. nath, don’t be dispirited by Henry’s volley. Recall in lieu Shakespeare’s line in Richard III:

    “A horse, a horse, my kingdom for a horse!”

  39. imacca:

    Friday, December 30, 2022 at 10:15 pm

    [‘doGs but you are a superciliously nasty wanker nath. ‘]

    I’m sure nath’s realised his faux pas without you needing to up the ante.

  40. Mavis @ Friday, December 30, 2022:

    “I’m sure nath’s realised his faux pas without you needing to up the ante.”
    ==============

    ‘Faux pas’? I believe the word you need here is ‘gaffe’.

  43. ”
    Aaron newtonsays:
    Friday, December 30, 2022 at 8:24 pm
    wonder if kean or gladis if she is cleared will run desbite nicki sava leading the campaign to bring back Frydenberg like her former bos Costellow he will remain a pertential leader Frydenberg has disapeared from the media since his los and unlike costelow he has no obvous leadership qualities and not a serplus or strong economick record to his name i think he would be an other turnbull who the media Crow sava talked up but the publick did not have the same opinion as the pres galary frydenberg did not like julia banks and tried to save kevin andrews
    ”

    During the Dual citizenship era of Turnbull government when his name cropped up regarding dual citizenship, Turnbull had to bring up Jewish card to defend Frydenburg. Pathetic?

  44. “I’m sure nath’s realised his faux pas without you needing to up the ante.”

    Apologies for the language Mavis…….. but at least it was succinct and made the point.

  45. “Soc made me do it….”

    About the time this came out, I was a youngster in or about what is now Dutton’s seat, and there was a place on the Bruce Highway, north of Petrie and south of Redcliffe, in the ‘Pine Rivers’ type area if I remember correctly, where there was an overpass over the Bruce highway that connected with nothing at all on each side, so not really a road to nowhere, but a bridge to nowhere from nowhere.

    Maybe long time correspondent, right leaning but otherwise learned and collegial, from Bribie Island knows the history.

  46. These days there is a huge development, lake something, which might even use the bridge to nowhere.

    When I was in local Govt I visited this lakes place, south of redcliffe, east of the Bruce highway I think, huge development, and at an ok standard too from memory.

  47. Macarthur:

    Friday, December 30, 2022 at 10:45 pm

    [‘Faux pas’? I believe the word you need here is ‘gaffe’.’]

    One of the beauties of languages is their synonyms & antonyms, particularly the English language. I’d accordingly suggest that a “gaffe” is less offensive than a “faux pas”. In any event, Macarthur, you write & argue very well. Pepsy.

  48. Russian KIA today: 690
    Total Russian KIA: 105,250
    Daily average Russian KIA: 339.5

    “ Москва повинна бути зруйнована.”
    Слава Україні! Героям слава!

  49. “Russian KIA today: 690
    Total Russian KIA: 105,250
    Daily average Russian KIA: 339.5”

    Once I would have thought that continuing was ‘inconceivable’ in the actual sense and not the Princess Bride sense, but Covid has illustrated just how little we care about even those in our own country, and how happy we are to sacrifice them for ‘normality’ whatever the f*ck that is, it kind of makes this unsurprising and well less heinous than what we are doing with covid.

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