Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July to December (open thread)

Relatively modest leads for the Coalition among Queenslanders, Christians and those 65-and-over, with Labor dominant everywhere else.

As it usually does on Boxing Day, The Australian has published quarterly aggregates of Newspoll with state and demographic breakdowns, on this occasion casting an unusually wide net from its polling all the way back to July to early this month, reflecting the relative infrequency of its results over this time. The result is a combined survey of 5771 respondents that finds Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (a swing of about 3.5% to Labor compared with the election), 57-43 in Victoria (about 2%), 55-45 in Western Australia (no change) and 57-43 in South Australia (a 4.0% swing), while trailing 51-49 in Queensland a 3% swing).

Gender breakdowns show only a slight gap, with Labor leading 54-46 among men and 56-44 among women, with the Greens as usual stronger among women among men. Age cohort results trend from 65-35 to Labor for 18-to-34 to 54-46 to the Coalition among 65-plus, with the Greens respectively on 24% and 3%. Little variation is recorded according to education or income, but Labor are strongest among part-time workers and weakest among the retired, stronger among non-English speakers but well ahead either way, and 62-38 ahead among those identifying as of no religion but 53-47 behind among Christians. You can find all the relevant data, at least for voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,276 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July to December (open thread)”

Comments Page 34 of 46
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  1. I agree MacArthur, I especially enjoyed the thousand points of light/ thousand missiles pointed at Honiara plan. Blow up those garbage dumps! That’ll show em.

  4. It must be hard for Latika Bourke to ‘read the room’ of 9/Faix readers, stuck as she is in her Chelsea apartment with her himbo making festive season turduken and posting the same on social media whilst posing alla Nigela Lawson style.

    So far the 600 odd comments (and these are the ones the editors actually publish remember) are running at about 100 to 1 against her line and Patterson and FOR Albanese. …

  6. Macarthur thanks.

    One more thanks – to the Greens, cross bench and their supporters. I am not one to pursue arguments with the Greens and crossbench when there are still so many criminals, sorry Liberals, at large.

    To give credit where it is due, progress in parliament was made this year when the Greens and crossbench were pragmatic, insisting on some concessions from Labor, but in the end passing and not blocking key legislation.

    They have every right to hold a different position to Labor, and did so through both amendments and voicing concerns they still want more change. But passing a bill while pointing out it is only half way to what you want is more constructive than blocking.

    Compared to when the Greens blocked climate action in 2009 because Labor’s bill did not go far enough, the spirit of compromise in 2022 has achieved genuine progress. May that continue too.

    PS given that Labor’s rise in the polls has come at the Liberal’s expense with the Greens keeping their vote share, this has been politically wise as well.

  8. Latika Bourke is also a reliable publisher for anything by the Wolverines cos players. She is pretty reliably anti china in her articles.

  11. So far the 600 odd comments (and these are the ones the editors actually publish remember) are running at about 100 to 1 against her line and Patterson and FOR Albanese. …

    If outrage gets more eyeballs than a feel good, then the author of the piece has done her job for the boss.

  12. With respect to this young fellow Dimitry, do we have to make fun of his name? Imply he is a russian plant? Surely we can do better than that.

    The young lad might be terribly missing the mark in so far as he supports the Libs but lets not bully someone for their name especially a young person giving it a go in our democracy.

  16. Toll Road prices are up again in Sydney tomorrow. Minns is onto a winner on this issue. But, the challenge will be, how to offer some form of toll relief? It really is out of control the prices being charged now and with inflation it is rising fast.

    Of course the economists will say that the price signal should stop driving but it cant when that is your only realistic option to get to work for those in the south central west and north west

  18. wranslidesays:
    Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 9:48 am
    With respect to this young fellow Dimitry, do we have to make fun of his name? Imply he is a russian plant? Surely we can do better than that.

    The young lad might be terribly missing the mark in so far as he supports the Libs but lets not bully someone for their name especially a young person giving it a go in our democracy.

    Oliver Suttonsays:
    Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 9:50 am
    Fair call, wranslide.

    I’ve spoken to the culprit and obtained a genuine show of remorse.
    The culprit will desist from such mindless comments.

  19. I haven’t said many kind words to the Liberals and their supporters. So I wish them happy new year and may they have time for reflection.

    I’m finding it pretty hard to defend the Liberals or their National sidekicks these days. Australia’s Lib/Nat/LNP machine has given up any pretense of liberalism a long time ago. In fact, when it comes to once cornerstone right wing issues like defense and foreign policy, they have largely given up on conservatism too.

    AUKUS and antagonising China shows that the LNP have degenerated into a local branch office of the US Republican party. They will sell out literally any economic, environmental, social, foreign affairs, or even national security interest for short term political gain.

    Almost every LNP decision can be explained by seeing if it rewarded local MPs and donors. Not holding any seats in Adelaide? No? OK we can just stall that sub contract a few years, cancel it, and move a warship contract to Perth. Likewise with funding for roads, schools, vaccine and anything else that is public funded.

    I have never seen Australian federal politics fall as low as under Scomo. The Morrison government reminded me a lot of growing up in Joh era Qld, right down to the media stunts and folksy speech – “feeding the chooks” as Joh called it.

    That the LNP can loose a half dozen elections by decisive margins and still see no need for internal reform is either delusion or arrogance or a little of both. When Labor lost it’s way in the past I called it out and I make no apology for doing the same with the LNP.

  20. A friend just rang me from Surfers Paradise whilst out eating breakfast (as is daily routine).
    Anyhow inter alia he said he took his girlfriend and her daughter to the Palazzo Versace Gold Coast for Xmas lunch.
    Cost $600 per head for lunch!

  21. Socrates @ #1656 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 9:42 am

    Compared to when the Greens blocked climate action in 2009 because Labor’s bill did not go far enough, the spirit of compromise in 2022 has achieved genuine progress. May that continue too.

    I agree that their 2009 decision was bad, but it has ultimately lead many to the realization that neither of the major parties are likely to offer adequate policies on climate change.

    Given that it is now abundantly clear that both major parties are beholden to the fossil-fuel cartel, then I think our best course of action is to look for alternatives. Certainly the voters seem to be catching on, albeit slowly.

    Let’s hope the new year actually delivers us something new in Australian politics.

  22. Dave

    Thanks and same to you.

    Wranslide

    “ Toll Road prices are up again in Sydney tomorrow. Minns is onto a winner on this issue. But, the challenge will be, how to offer some form of toll relief? It really is out of control the prices being charged now and with inflation it is rising fast.”

    This problem is difficult to fix. Most tollroad concessions include onerous clauses compensating the owner if tolls or traffic volumes are cut. Some even have clauses limiting the government’s ability to build parallel competing infrastructure.

    It is often easier to wait till the toll deeds expire. For NSW that is a real possibility. Most toll roads have a 30 year concession period. After that the toll is removed.in that past many have been extended to keep revenue rolling in long after the road was paid for. But that is a government decision, which doesn’t have to happen. Many toll roads like the M2, M4 and M5 must be coming towards their 30 year limit soon.

    This is why I have been urging Labor to shift away from freeway funding towards public transport. Tradies get jobs building both, but Australia has gone too far in building roads.

  23. “Pearls and Irritations” has some thoughts for today, leading off with an article by Keating on Australia’s place in the world, in which he takes parts of a speech of his from 1992 and asks, “What John Curtin said in 1942 is right for us in 1992: “On what we now do depends everything we may like to do.” Is it right for us once more, in 2022?”.
    https://johnmenadue.com/australia-and-asia-in-2022-knowing-who-we-areimage-paul-keating-knowing-who-we-are-7-april-1992/

    Other articles include defence strategy, the recent G20 in Indonesia, a review of the autobiography of Vere Gordon Childe, foreign policy and the CIA, reversing privatisation, and the “China threat industry”.

    https://johnmenadue.com/

  25. Lars Von Trier @ Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 9:30 am:
    ===============

    Lars, I have two jokes for you:

    1. Q: What does the misery of Russian soldiers on the frontline have in common with the misery of Ukrainian civilians in their homes?
    A: Both end when Russia stops attacking Ukraine.

    2. Q: How do they differ?
    A: Only one of them ends when Ukraine stops resisting Russia.

    Something for you to think about in 2023. Happy New Year!

  27. Thanks Socrates. Yes that is an option although for an opposition party trying to win votes it does not scream immediate relief which our society demands these days and unfortunately our democracy is set up to deliver short term gain to keep politicians in power.

    I think the m5 contract was extended with the building of the m5 east which has been extended further again with the extended tunnels which are now tolled. The m4 did expire in this term of Government i think but then they extended it again in exchange for an expansion.

    It is a difficult problem given the contracts as you point out.

  28. Sydney’s freeways, at least those I use regularly, are great infrastructure, but the cost must add up for anyone using them for their daily commute. For example, it costs over $20 each way from Sydney’s NW to the Eastern suburbs during peak hours.

    The alternatives are public transport, which is really only a viable option if your start and finish points are on a direct route to the City – and not an option if you need your car for work; or avoid the toll roads, difficult because alternative routes were strangled when the tollways were built.

    Some of the earlier PPP-build toll roads are reaching their 30 year anniversaries when they revert to public ownership. If the Coalition is in power when they do they’ll just roll over the contracts for another 30 years.

    There must be something there for NSW Labor to work with, but I haven’t heard anything.

  29. The West Australian’s resident Liberal cheerleader Paul Murray has taken his game to new heights today.

    The headings tell us all we need to know. “Danger signs as Albo talks like Hawke but acts like Whitlam” and “forget the rhetoric, the former young Trot is reverting to type” and “I know that Albanese’s defenders say he has mellowed . And to that, I call bull…t.”

    And some of the PM’s trenchant critics here say he’s not Left enough.

  32. Not many people think to ride their bike to work.
    Melbourne is lucky to have a rather good network of off-road cycling trails:

    Or there’s this wonderful transit style map of the network:

    Sydney is a bit harder work.

    There’s so many advantages to using 2 wheels.

  33. The headings tell us all we need to know. “Danger signs as Albo talks like Hawke but acts like Whitlam” and “forget the rhetoric, the former young Trot is reverting to type” and “I know that Albanese’s defenders say he has mellowed . And to that, I call bull…t.”

    The Whitlam Government is now as distant in time as the Billy Morris Hughes Government was in Whitlam’s, or James Scullin and Joe Lyons were in Hawke’s. Would many readers understand the point that Paul Murray is trying to make?

    But then, young people don’t read newspapers.

  34. Only one party has a mortgage on the double bunger names..

    Sarah Hanson-Young
    Peter Whish-Wilson
    Jordan Steele-John
    Elizabeth Watson-Brown
    Max Chandler-Mather
    Penny Allman-Payne

    Out of 16 Federal parliamentarians, that’s a whopping 37.5%.

    Is there some sort of unstated quota?

  37. This was from 2018:
    B: T. Ormond-Allen (Mel/Ade). L Roberts-Thompson (Syd). R Forster-Knight (Ess).
    HB: R Lester-Smith (Haw/Bris). I Warne –Smith (Mel). G Lawson-Smith (Carl).
    C: D Rhys-Jones (SM/Syd/Car). C Ellis-Yolmen (Ade). G Horlin-Smith (Geel).
    HF: W Hoskin-Elliot (Coll). C Cockatoo-Collins (Ess/Port Ade). L Wardell-Johnson (Frem).
    F: S Minton-Connell (Carl/Haw/ WB/ Syd). T Denis-Lane (Syd). L Boyd-Gerny (StK).
    FOLL: R Fenton-Smith (Melb). S Powell-Pepper (Port Ade). B McMaster- Smith (Fitz/Carl/St Kilda).
    INTER: Da Cockatoo-Collins (Melb.) Do Cockatoo-Collins (Melb). A Neale Bullen ( Melb). S Petrevski-Seton (Carl).
    EMER: D Byrne-Jones (Port Ade). J Oakley-Nicholls (Rich). L Davies-Uniacke(NM).

  38. P1,
    What you constantly ignore is what the electorate will accept.

    The Coalition was able to win elections by creating fear around what Labor was proposing in a number of areas including climate policy.

    Labor has started by putting in place the pieces that are needed to facilitate the transition.

    You pursue the simplistic idea that this is unnecessary and that it is possible to jump from the reality of no federal action to an end position that other countries are struggling to reach despite having a 10 year head start.

    Your attitude and position in this area represents no part of a solution. Even the Greens have become more rational in this regard.

  39. Alpha Zero @ Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 10:44 am

    We were promised a Parramatta – City bike path with the upgrade to the M4.

    Another Liberal lie.

  43. sprocket_ says:
    Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 10:48 am
    Only one party has a mortgage on the double bunger names..

    Sarah Hanson-Young
    Peter Whish-Wilson
    Jordan Steele-John
    Elizabeth Watson-Brown
    Max Chandler-Mather
    Penny Allman-Payne

    Out of 16 Federal parliamentarians, that’s a whopping 37.5%.

    Is there some sort of unstated quota?
    ————————–
    Lol Sprocket

  44. Scott @ #1693 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 10:37 am

    sprocket_ says:
    Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 10:48 am
    Only one party has a mortgage on the double bunger names..

    Sarah Hanson-Young
    Peter Whish-Wilson
    Jordan Steele-John
    Elizabeth Watson-Brown
    Max Chandler-Mather
    Penny Allman-Payne

    Out of 16 Federal parliamentarians, that’s a whopping 37.5%.

    Is there some sort of unstated quota?
    ————————–
    Lol Sprocket

    Peter should marry Amanda Rishworth for a ripping surname. Call their son Willis.

  46. sprocket_ says:
    Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 10:48 am

    Only one party has a mortgage on the double bunger names..

    Out of 16 Federal parliamentarians, that’s a whopping 37.5%
    ____________
    Not bad sprocket. Now do a photo essay on fat Liberals.

  48. Simon: “Peter should marry Amanda Rishworth for a ripping surname.”

    Annastacia Palaszczuk was married to George Megalogenis way back.

    No children, sadly: a missed opportunity for an impressive double-barrelled surname.

  49. Player One @ Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 11:15 am
    “Barney in Belair @ #1688 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 10:58 am

    What you constantly ignore is what the electorate will accept.
    And what you constantly ignore is what the electorate wants.”

    Welcome back, Your Majesty! Just who is the electorate in your mind? Didn’t we just vote? 🙂

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