As it usually does on Boxing Day, The Australian has published quarterly aggregates of Newspoll with state and demographic breakdowns, on this occasion casting an unusually wide net from its polling all the way back to July to early this month, reflecting the relative infrequency of its results over this time. The result is a combined survey of 5771 respondents that finds Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (a swing of about 3.5% to Labor compared with the election), 57-43 in Victoria (about 2%), 55-45 in Western Australia (no change) and 57-43 in South Australia (a 4.0% swing), while trailing 51-49 in Queensland a 3% swing).
Gender breakdowns show only a slight gap, with Labor leading 54-46 among men and 56-44 among women, with the Greens as usual stronger among women among men. Age cohort results trend from 65-35 to Labor for 18-to-34 to 54-46 to the Coalition among 65-plus, with the Greens respectively on 24% and 3%. Little variation is recorded according to education or income, but Labor are strongest among part-time workers and weakest among the retired, stronger among non-English speakers but well ahead either way, and 62-38 ahead among those identifying as of no religion but 53-47 behind among Christians. You can find all the relevant data, at least for voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack.
“ And what you constantly ignore is what the electorate wants.”
Lols P1.
Of that mythical 80% of the electorate want action on climate change, 32% must have voted for the LNP at the last election (perhaps even your good self, no?) – either directly, or via allocating a preference – over Labor, Greens or even the Teals (also including other Teal like candidates).
The last time ‘real action on climate change’ was on the ballot, Tony Abbott won in a landslide.
Your facts are factoids.
Griff @ #1699 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 11:24 am
Yes we did. And what did we vote for?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/dec/28/australian-government-must-take-its-foot-off-the-gas-to-ensure-real-emission-reductions
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1701 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 11:31 am
Such a shame the polling says otherwise, isn’t it?
Nath, you’ve popped back up again. Tell us again that you think people taking up arms in resistance to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are “merchants of death”, like you did last night. Alternatively, take this opportunity to walk back your statement. Alternatively, crack a joke to soothe your ego like you often do. Alternatively, stick your head in the sand and ignore this comment.
“But then, young people don’t read newspapers.”
I try not to read the West at all, but obviously I’ll see some headlines in the shops and perhaps flip to the sports pages of the copy at work, but surely noone really reads Paul Murray. Well the way McGowan governs perhaps he does, but noone else.
P1
And since then, having taken action on climate change, the polls show greater support for Labor.
Which suggests that Labor is doing exactly what the (vast majority) of the electorate wants.
The voters want action on climate change as long as it costs them nothing.
Player One @ Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 11:33 am
Conflating an opinion poll with a vote on a psephology site.
Thanks for the lolz! Carry on 😉
You can justify your inaction however you like. But please don’t pretend inaction is what the electorate wants.
“And since then, having taken action on climate change, the polls show greater support for Labor.
Which suggests that Labor is doing exactly what the (vast majority) of the electorate wants.”
I’m not sure ‘taken action’ or the polling means what you say they mean.
The polling you rely upon, P1 may as well have asked respondents whether they were for Mother’s Day and Puppy Dogs.
When asked whether they support action on climate change that MAY actually cost them something personally (whether in truth or because of perceptions due to a LNP-MSM fear campaign) the punters quickly say: ‘yeah-nah, how good are franking credits’ and then proceed to do the dirty in the ballot box. As I said the other day, a majority of folk who say they are FOR action on climate change, simply aren’t prepared to pay the iron price.
I’m pretty sure there is some actual polling that demonstrates the gap between ‘aspirational’ declarations of love for all things environment and a change in attitudes once the hip pocket nerve is tweaked.
“doing exactly what the (vast majority) of the electorate wants” is a big stretch, zoomster.
Essential Report
Attitudes to Labor’s emissions reduction target
Jul’22
Q. …. do you think the 43% reduction target is a sufficient contribution from Australia to limit the impact of climate change?
Yes: 44%
No: 40%
Unsure: 16%
https://essentialreport.com.au/tag/emissions-targets
The proper marketing frame is polling that frames willingness-to-pay graduated amounts for differing levels of climate action. These consistently show that Australians have a major aversion to personally paying anything or much at all for climate change action. They are very willing for others to pay, though.
There is a cross check on this. Research shows that people who want action on climate change have, on average, the same emissions behaviours as their controls. Again, the principle is that they are all for climate action – provided somebody else does it. In this respect it could reasonably be argued that the Greens Party is infested with finger-pointing hypocrites.
A final cross check relates to taxation. In the last election something like 88% of voters voted for parties which support the same or reduced levels of taxation. They voted FOR 43/30 because they were led to believe that it would not cost them, personally, a brass razzoo.
In the only poll that counts, the party that ostentatiously supports radical increases in taxes and in climate action failed to persuade 9 Australians out of 10.
WWP
Murray is an anachronism in The West Australian . A hangover from the past.
When stokes hired De Ceglie as editor from Murdoch the paper immediately veered into comic book territory.
Photoshopped images on front pages, pun headlines, the pregnant wives of what are perceived to be celebrities. And an obsession with bikies.
Over successive rounds of redundancies older experienced reporters were shunted as were most sub-editors. De Ceglie is said to have boasted how he got rid of the old school.
The new breed trawl social media for “news” and the whole paper is skewed to a younger audience. Who probably dont buy it but may subscribe to its online service.
Murray is 70ish. He can remember Whitlam and his weekly column seems aimed at that demographic. The western suburbs seniors.
A a footy fan my main interest was reading what chief football writer Mark Duffield had to say. He is one of the better informed in the game. He took redundancy in November, apparently after harsh words with De Ceglie who made a comment about his age.
There is one less reason to look at it. Might be least nail for me.
Steve777 @ #1707 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 11:12 am
Cost. Depends on your definition. Plenty of people will accept some level of additional expense if they can easily afford it. Some who cant afford it will accept some level of inconvenience in the transition and perhaps even in the long run if they have enough time in their lives.
Yet the clincher is that few of us can afford the costs and inconveniences a +2°C warmer planet will create.
There isnt an option here. Governments must encourage transition (now urgent) in an orderly and somewhere near fair way. But governments in democracies are beholden to many things, further complicated by our international system of competing sovereign interests. That both domestic and international complications seem impossible to overcome in a timely manner for something so dire speaks volumes about both systems.
MacArthur – I dont care if you incessantly post about Ukraine- Russia War, but I do think you do owe people an explanation about why you are so zealously interested in the issue.
Your zeal is obviously personal – what’s the driver for you?
The election manifesto of the comedian turned politician was to rid the government of entrenched corruption, unite the Russian speaking territories within the border of Ukraine with the Ukrainian speaking territories and to negotiate a peace with Putin
And you could be excused for adding that these resolutions were to reflect the positions of the Ukraine President – plus Ukraine will embrace NATO (read the USA)
For every action there is a reaction
As in the South China (yes, China) where Chinese military planes are coming into close contact with USA military planes
Meanwhile a far right government in Israel is embracing the occupation of yet more territory, adding to the refugee numbers in the Region
Not that I am anything but critical of Russia bombing the begezuss out of a Region of Ukraine it rehabilitated after the impact of the German military in WW2, because there has to be a better resolution than causing the deaths and destruction we see no matter where on the Globe we inhabit
But when you read some of the contributions on this site (which is the only social media site I view), you really have to wonder about some in the community we seek to survive in
Attack dogs get attack dogs
Every action has a reaction
Hopefully the election of Labor governments over Coalition governments (not that Labor does everything right because they do not but government has limitations) is a result of the filtering down of the education agenda Whitlam introduced, so one in education embraces the next generation and so on
And that investment in education sees an improved society and improved outcomes (which I trust is the reason main stream media influence no longer exists)
The numbers which embraced spread interruption strategies then vaccination is a positive
So science won – despite loud voices in opposition and the media coverage they were afforded over science
Simon Henny Penny Katich @ Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 12:05 pm
This is the real tragedy. Participatory democracy is reliant on a well-informed electorate. Our Fourth Estate is moribund.
Lars Von Trier @ Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 12:06 pm:
“MacArthur – I dont care if you incessantly post about Ukraine- Russia War, but I do think you do owe people an explanation about why you are so zealously interested in the issue.
Your zeal is obviously personal – what’s the driver for you?”
===============
Lars, I’ve mentioned this before, several threads ago now, my wife’s family are from Ukraine, though she herself was born here. My children are therefore half Ukrainian and proud of it. My in-laws are all very upset about this invasion, as you’d expect. Her grandparents on one side fled Europe after WW2, having met in the German forced labour camp they were taken to.
The Australian political realm and media is packed with people like this.
And just one other observation
Immigration bought with it entrenched political views, particularly among those who immigrated from European Nations with right wing political biases
The older generation is in decline in numbers, replaced generally significantly with more progressive generations (plural) courtesy also of education, not blind faith to an ideology and those who promote those ideologies
Nothing is the same today as it was yesterday
Ok tks MacArthur.
So my question is the West of the Country ie Lviv etc is clearly pro-NATO but the Donbass region and Crimea is pro-Russian. The former pro-Russian President Yanukovich had most of his support from these regions.
Basically voting shares peaked in the West and progressively declined as you moved East for the pro-Western candidate for the last 30 years.
If one group doesnt want to be part of a multi ethnic state – what should happen to that group? Do they have any right to self-determination? Or if two groups are irreconcilable what then?
Griff (and Simon K)
“This is the real tragedy. Participatory democracy is reliant on a well-informed electorate. Our Fourth Estate is moribund.”
It does make a difference over time. It requires constant effort, but can be overcome.
My brother is a mechanical engineer and lives in central Qld, where the local Murdoch/Ninefax media (paper and TV) makes the Courier Mail look left wing. A few years ago I got him a subscription to Crikey for Christmas, which he liked and subsequently renewed.
Until then he had no idea of local shenanigans like local LNP rep Matt Canavan’s brother having a large personal investment in a coal venture.
From recent conversations he now strongly supports the Qld government’s move to build renewable power on the Fraser coast and elsewhere. I’m sure awareness of the vested interests shifted his opinion. And his kids all strongly support climate action 🙂
If I was going out with a Ukrainian woman I would be as fierce as Macarthur.
When you get your old fella caught up in an international conflagration there is nothing else to be done but go full steam ahead.
Sohar
“The Australian political realm and media is packed with people like this.”
“Dunning–Kruger effect – a type of cognitive bias where people with little expertise or ability assume they have superior expertise or ability.”
So true. I was thinking of Bruce Lehrmann, 23 year old Arts degree dropout and senior advisor to the Defense minister, who thought that having drinks with people in Defense firms made him a player in the industry.
Plenty of people talking about nuclear submarines in the past year have demonstrated their ignorance on camera too. First it was Bandt talking about “floating Chernobyls”, Dutton talking about the US being able to supply Australia SSNs “off the shelf”, and Morrison explaining why we couldn’t take the French nuclear subs because we “couldn’t refuel them” and they were “inferior”. Some Admirals tried to suggest that we wouldn’t need to maintain the reactors of the US or UK ones for 30 years. All wrong.
Socrates @ Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 12:33 pm
Kudos! I have gifted a Saturday Paper subscription in the past, but not strategically as you have. I shall now think about who to target 🙂
this dimetrey yung liberal president cant seem to explain whiy power broker Matt kean could not get any candadate preselected foor the state elexction yet acording to alix smith he is the key power broker if he cant even get a so called moderit female candadate in the upper house how can we trust him on his climate targit he might have rath and poulis but if the party membership is not listoning to him whiy should we liston to chug palmer
Lars
Even in the east of Ukraine, at the 2019 election Zelensky (green areas in map below) won a clear majority of the vote. The only exceptions were Crimea and Donbass, which were not able to vote. A significant number of ethnic Russians have left Ukraine since the 2014 invasion.
In earlier elections , the proportion of eastern Ukrainians that have supported pro-Russian candidates was going steadily down. For example, in 2010 Yulia Tymoshenko, the pro-Europe candidate, did not win a majority in the Donbas (red areas in the map below).
Pro-Russian groups in the Donbas threatened violence to force the closure of polling booths in the 2014 election. I would say we have no credible evidence that the majority of Donbas residents want to be part of Russia now.
It is true that historically there were more Russian speaking Ukrainians in the east, Polish speaking in the west. But the war has changed that a lot.
There’s more to Dunning-Kruger.
#2 Many experts have forgotten what they did not know, and forgotten how they learned what they now know, and consequently assume that what they know should be obvious to everyone. You can see the frustration and responses that generates on Twitter and elsewhere. I suspect this is one reason why attacks on “elites” are successful.
#3 Others that do recall how hard it was are unsure that they have mastered their evolving topic and hesitate to argue with certainty. It’s an academic tradition to explore uncertainty.
Please!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/30/andrew-tate-detained-in-romania-on-organised-and-charges
Lars, you’re welcome, and good points you’ve raised for discussion. A few not-fully-formed thoughts:
1. A respected system of international law is a precondition for any just implementation of national self-determination. Russia’s violation of this from 2014 to now needs to be reversed first.
2. There has been one, and only one, legitimate vote in Ukraine to measure popular support to either leave Russia or to stay, in 1991. In it, every oblast voted for independence, even Crimea (just). As things stand, that is the popular will, until there is a real referendum which decided otherwise. But for that to occur, condition 1 above must first be met.
3. Self-determination votes are generally only necessary or desirable when there is irreconcilable ethnic conflict. But in Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian ethnic tensions are almost entirely a product of Putin’s genocidal persecution of Ukraine, Ukrainians and Ukrainian-ness. In the 1990’s, such tension was no more than is common in many multi-ethnic pluralist states. Remove Putinism and the ethnic tensions will die down.
Socrates re
From memory, the last ALP government approved the widening of the M2 conditional on the blackban on competing public transport being lifted and extended the toll rights expiry date.
Same for the M5 except I don’t think there was a competition ban.
The M4 is on to its second toll on a section of road that has been paid for twice already.
The section of road that merges to and from Parramatta Rd is dangerous and an utter disgrace. There has been at least 1 fatal accident at the Church St exit.
Obviously intended to trap and/or discourage use of the free alternatives.
There’s been a sh$tload of money spent on on and off ramps from Parramatta to Penrith and lots of overhead gantries. Wonder if they’ve been prewired for toll tags?
I picked my daughter up from Yagoona recently in the peak hour and decided to use the tolled section.
It was probably better than Parramatta Rd but for close to $10 each way it would want to be.
Of course past Parramatta it was a carpark. Induced demand in action.
It is understandable that areas with majority Russian speakers should want to be governed by a Russian speaking head of state.
There is a domain in which individuals who can afford it can demonstrate that they can, and will, behave consistent with their averred climate action wants: air travel.
Globally, air travel generates 5% of the world’s emissions. Further, that 5% is generated by the top 5% of globally wealthy individuals. Further, 99% of air travel is discretionary. Further, it requires no new technology to stop these emissions. Further, it requires no major new investments to stop these emissions.
Should be a doddle for the committed?
Should be one of the highest priority for action according to the Greens Party?
Thunberg was feted because she traveled by slow boat. So the feters sort of got what it was all about.
But those who were feting Thunberg? Were they sniggering into their sleeves?
The Greens Party should:
1. Advocate for an immediate ban on all but the most urgent air travel.
2. Introduce legislation to parliament accordingly.
3. immediately ban all but emergency travel by their members and their reps.
Socrates @ Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 12:59 pm:
Thank you, you beat me to it.
Steve777 @ #1637 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 10:46 am
And well-informed people don’t believe a word Paul Murray says.
Aqualung 1.08
Thanks. I haven’t worked directly on any Sydney toll road projects for a few years now as I prefer to avoid such work. I agree on the problem of induced demand.
Do you think there is an appetite within NSW DfT to review policy on toll roads? If the current toll deals were left to expire rather than rolled over again, then NSW DfT could gradually move to a fairer road pricing scheme.
Of course, the huge cost of Westconnex will lock part of the network into tolls for another 30 years.
Rolling over toll road concessions to the incumbent really is the worst form of private ownership of public assets. It reinforces existing monopolies and does not guarantee the taxpayer gets the best price for the asset.
People looking for individuals to solve systemic problems are either totally dishonest or completely stupid. It was always a con by the evil for the weak of mind, and it remains exactly that.
Plastic bags in WA are a great example, individually it was never going to be solved. Along came a systemic solution to a systemic problem and like magic almost no plastic bags at all.
It is amazing. Not.
Paul Murrays heroes are now a party of losers and becoming irrelevant.
Airtravel is not the low hanging fruit. It needs more than individual responsibility.
However, yes indeed-i-do it is something where the damage can be reduced here and now. Proper offset programs, monitored and regulated for long term benefit – with harsh greenwashing penalties. Reduce the need for travel – so much business and political air travel is perky rather than efficient use of time and resources. Stop kidding yourselves – zoom is good enough for most of that. And….. you could do it for parliament to. Revolutionise our parliaments with zoom from local libraries and get the resources to the local MPs in other ways – reducing trips to Canberra to maybe twice a year.
Griff @ #1708 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 11:43 am
Well, I think this may be a candidate for one of the stupidest comments ever posted here.
‘WeWantPaul says:
Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 1:18 pm
People looking for individuals to solve systemic problems are either totally dishonest or completely stupid. It was always a con by the evil for the weak of mind, and it remains exactly that.’
====================================
People who routinely use abusive language… oh, wait.
The Greens are a Party.
There is NOTHING stopping the Greens Party from adopting a policy to ban air travel in Australia for all except emergency needs. Nothing that is, except the Greens apparently have zero appetite for this particular policy. One can’t help thinking that, while they are advocating the destruction of half a dozen rural and regional industries, the Greens have no appetite for a policy that would actually affect THEM.
Even if the Party fails them, there is nothing stopping strong minded Greens individuals from walking their talk. After all, if Greens individuals adopt vegan or vegetarian diets out of climate-saving principles, then there is nothing stopping them from extending planet-saving behaviours to avoiding flight.
But the Greens have adopted a clever little out that absolves them of personal responsibility for anything other than stunting, advocating, blocking, slowing down and yelling from the rooftops.
“The new breed trawl social media for “news” and the whole paper is skewed to a younger audience. Who probably dont buy it but may subscribe to its online service.”
Would be interesting to see actual subscription numbers and revenue.
WWP
LOL.
Plastic bags = air travel!
So.
Why ARE the Greens silent on air travel but noisy on just about everything else?
The official, soothing, view of China’s current management of Covid. I seem to recall that they did report a single death a couple of days ago but this report does not delve into that statistic:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/dec/30/china-covid-response-pandemic-science-guidelines-vaccine
P1
“Let’s hope the new year actually delivers us something new in Australian politics.”
Did someone at Specsavers say take my money yet ?
International travel is essential in developing a global ethos of sustainability and respect for the varied environments across the planet. It’s also vital in getting to Hawaii and Aspen.
Socrates (AnonBlock)
Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 1:16 pm
Something needs to be done and I don’t think I’m saying anything controversial by pointing out that a private monopoly is not the answer. It is in fact the worst possible solution especially when idiots in government sign off on ridiculous pricing mechanisms based on a percentage or CPI whichever is greater.
Bob Carr discovered how hard it is to break these contracts hence the M4 and M5 toll cash back scheme. The M4 part is now gone.
I have no problem with tolls but ALL of the tolls should have gone to the government not private monopolies.
Get the private sector to build it but borrow and pay them in full and have proper oversight so that we don’t get ripped off. My understanding is that tunnelling here carries some sort of Australian hicks tax and our governments prove them right by signing off.