As it usually does on Boxing Day, The Australian has published quarterly aggregates of Newspoll with state and demographic breakdowns, on this occasion casting an unusually wide net from its polling all the way back to July to early this month, reflecting the relative infrequency of its results over this time. The result is a combined survey of 5771 respondents that finds Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (a swing of about 3.5% to Labor compared with the election), 57-43 in Victoria (about 2%), 55-45 in Western Australia (no change) and 57-43 in South Australia (a 4.0% swing), while trailing 51-49 in Queensland a 3% swing).
Gender breakdowns show only a slight gap, with Labor leading 54-46 among men and 56-44 among women, with the Greens as usual stronger among women among men. Age cohort results trend from 65-35 to Labor for 18-to-34 to 54-46 to the Coalition among 65-plus, with the Greens respectively on 24% and 3%. Little variation is recorded according to education or income, but Labor are strongest among part-time workers and weakest among the retired, stronger among non-English speakers but well ahead either way, and 62-38 ahead among those identifying as of no religion but 53-47 behind among Christians. You can find all the relevant data, at least for voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack.
Hh
I would prefer Kouk’s prediction of ‘no recession’ to mine of ‘recession’.
I think, despite his bravado and attempting to project strength to the world at large, Xi Xinping is going to have to deal with a difficult situation at home next year. Across many facets of the Chinese economy and society.
C@tmomma @ #1793 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 3:15 pm
Still freaks me out. I pushed it to the limit last time and it was like Kramer driving the car out of fuel.
I still raise all recent retail shoppers with my meeting up with a fully suited Geoffrey Robinson pushing a trolley in my local Woolies a couple of weeks ago.
Given he resides in England.
Mr Dutton is striding around Mooa National Park of an AM
Dr John @ #1757 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 3:56 pm
He and his wife, Kathy Lette, probably come out here for Xmas with the Aussie family.
I meant to include this informative EV article in the Dawn Patrol this morning. Soz.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/big-name-brands-set-to-launch-electric-vehicles-in-australia-in-2023-20221230-p5c9ga.html
um C@t u obviously dont know that Robertson and Lette divorced some years ago. That’s the problem with reposting and passing off I guess if you dont really follow something.
Griff @ #1764 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 2:05 pm
Oh look, another entry for the stupidest comment ever posted on this site. And I think this one is even better – why, it is almost as if you have absolutely no clue what PB is about.
I think we should make this an annual award, and since it’s almost the end of the year there is a pretty good chance this one will be the winner!
C@
Been divorced for a while now.
zoomster at 3.49 pm
Do you have a train station nearby, off the main line? It’s a long way from Boree Creek:
https://www.federationcouncil.nsw.gov.au/News-Media/Tim-Fischer-AC-memorial-sculpture-unveiled
The grass is starting to get aggressive out there. But as I depart to push my little mower, I would like to note that from personal experience, “roaring” is one thing EVs don’t do. (As per my encounter with one last week.)
You win today’s spot-the-celebrity round, Dr J.
You have oligarchs falling out of windows like flies, Russia is not yet burning but the fire have started to be lit.
I think the end of this war will depend on the same conditions that ended the Afghanistan/ Russian war and the participation of Russia in the first would war. Who shoots Putin is the unknown.
zoomster @ #1809 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 3:33 pm
SARCASM ALERT
cTAR1 was very fond of Kathy Lette.
END OF SARCASM
frednk @ #1767 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 4:10 pm
Or finds an open window that he just happens to be too near.
But they are thugs and criminals in the Russian government and they employ the Russian Mafia to do their dirty work for them, so it’s not guaranteed that anything at all will happen to Putin. He has instituted more stringent gun laws than we have, so the number of guns in private hands is strictly limited. However, there’s probably going to be some coming back from Ukraine that he doesn’t know about, so …
Lars Von Trier @ #1761 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 4:02 pm
Oh dear, I don’t follow the social pages or read No Idea. 😐
I take that as a badge of honour, quite frankly.
How would you know about Russian gun laws C@t? Sounds like another thing you’ve repurposed for passing off credit.
C@t
Even Mafia bosses die.
Oliver Sutton says:
Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 4:07 pm
You win today’s spot-the-celebrity round, Dr J. Oliver
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Thanks Oliver but I apologize I got his surname wrong when I posted as I was watching a Mooney Valley horse race with a financial interest at the same time.
Geoffrey’s last word was ‘thanks’ I remember.
As an aside I have a very intelligent mate whom actually recruited Julian Assange into a ‘computer group’ many years ago.
Perhaps somewhat the same territory that is involved with the current(?) secret trial being conducted about unspecified charges against unspecified Greens’ Party members.
‘…
On 3 March 2022, Giggle’s lawyers at the Feminist Legal Clinic responded to the complaint, saying Tickle was “considered male” based on her appearance in the selfie and that this was why she had been removed.
…’
I am not sure how that is going to play out in a real court.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/dec/31/transgender-woman-sues-female-only-app-giggle-for-girls-for-alleged-discrimination
Cat
WAs’s Paul Murray was a political journalist who worked mainly for The West Australian eventually becoming its editor.
He then had a spell as a shock jock on Perth radio.
He left that a over a decade ago and has a weekly column in the paper for many years, usually devoted to attacking Labor.
Dr Doolittle
His wife’s property is about 10k out of town – it became their base after the marriage.
His children were educated in Victoria, because they judged the NSW system wasn’t up to standard.
…I was once a passenger in his car on a drive up to Mt Buffalo. Journo/mate of Tim’s in the front seat. A very enlightening conversation to listen in to.
Tim did a perfectly crafted sound bite for the journo, who said he’d put it straight out there.
No, Tim advised, wait until the evening – then the grab will be on Macca’s first thing, and run all day.
And it was so.
Brain May, who holds a doctorate in astrophysics & is a guitarist in an obscure British rock group, has been created a knight bachelor in Charles’ New Year’s Honours list. (Chance for you yet, D & M). And rumour has it that Jagger’s knighthood was opposed by the Queen as he allegedly had an affair with her sister & was anarchic, marking his nomination as being “Not suitable” but Blair won the day.
Lars Von Trier @ #1771 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 4:17 pm
I see the insipid and pusillanimous little pustule that is Lars von Trier thinks he has found his line and length against me. I now, ‘repurpose for passing off credit’, whatever the hell that little word salad is supposed to mean?
Fyi, obsessive little squirt (and it took me 2 seconds to google it-something I suggest you do before you shoot your stupid little mewling mouth off next time, Liars:
https://www.rbth.com/lifestyle/328459-gun-culture-in-russia-and-us
Now, I thought I was supposed to be leaving you alone? Well, why don’t you do the same for me? You’re not having much success in trying to tear me down, quite frankly.
Boerwar at 3.47 pm re Voice
Bandt will vote Yes, and campaign for Yes, simply because most Greens voters want Yes to win. No amount of unimpressive interpretive gymnastics by him will avoid that.
So exclude Bandt and replace with Hanson, clearly the firebrand of the No campaign.
Littleproud was summed up forever by Rowe’s cartoon, “Chicken Little”, when he did not “have a go to get a go” at the Nats leadership during the ProMo malaise.
Dutton remains on the fence, albeit leaning toward No. He will be forced to declare his intentions sooner rather than later, perhaps by late Jan.
Why does he hesitate? Because he’s in a lose-lose position. Oppose the Voice and it wins, even if not in Qld, and he’s history, particularly since his party will not be united.
There are 27 Lib MHRs excluding Qld. Mug shots at:
https://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Members/Members_Photos?party=288
Of those at least 6 are likely to support the Voice: Archer, Broadbent, Coleman, Fletcher, Leeser and probably McKenzie (Flinders). Possibly some others as well, plus a number of Senators (e.g. Birmingham, Payne, Liddle).
What happens if Dutton eventually supports Yes? He minimises his potential political losses, so don’t rule it out until he clearly does.
Now, even if you have Dutton leading most of the LNP against the Voice (but far from all, i.e. with around 20% of LNP MPs likely to support the Voice come what may), what will that do to the Hanson-led media-promoted megaphone of Vote No if Don’t Know?
It does not increase the chances of No overwhelmingly. Think about it state by state. Given the Liberal Tandemites in the WA LA, although most WA Lib members would be inclined to oppose the Voice, their influence these days is greatly diminished. Likewise in SA, except that many SA Libs (or perhaps half) may actually support the Voice.
For the Voice to lose, there need to be 3 states that fail. Qld is the obvious candidate, but it’s not clear which state might be the second, let alone the third. The Lib Premier of Tassie, Rockliff, will be campaigning for the Voice. Perrottet would too, except that he is likely to be doing that from Opposition in NSW.
Victoria is highly likely to vote Yes. In 1967 there were pockets of entrenched racism in country NSW (Kempsey) as well as WA (Kalgoorlie), but, currently, it’s hard to see the Voice vote failing in any of NSW, Tassie, SA or WA. That would leave Qld as the outlier, but even in Qld the No vote might not succeed. Remember, that assessment contains a margin for error: assuming Victoria votes Yes, and Qld No, then two of the other states must vote No for the Voice to fail. NSW might be the most wobbly, but it’s far from Qld, and even if NSW fails then numerically it would be balanced by Victoria, and those other three states (WA, SA and Tas) look strong for Yes because of state-based factors.
While most of your other predictions are objective enough, reassess the odds re Voice. Late Riser, with the advantage of living in the most backward state, Qld, may be right.
Boerwar same same-ing Bandt and Hanson is one of many absurd narratives he likes to peddle.
C@t the link you have posted to is Russian State Television – Novosti. Russian state propaganda has been discredited pretty much everywhere.
In any event it doesnt say what you claimed – having zero reference to Australian gun laws or comparison.
Much like your hilarious example with the ill-named MacArthur yesterday – you should acknowledge your mistake and withdraw your post.
Dr D
I think that is a very good analysis. Slight cavils:
IMO, we have yet to see the full force of nastiness on the No side. It is going to get vicious.
Bandt’s contribution is currently a negative because it helps legitimate other naysayers of various degrees.
I hope you are right and that Bandt and the Greens get their act together asap.
Can I just wish all readers of the blog and safe, happy and peaceful 2023.
It’s been a stressful year for political junkies in Vic with two crucial elections but thankfully both went the way I had realistically hoped.
My hope is that next year will see those left behind living in poverty will be picked up and embraced.
…and a reminder that being aspirational doesn’t mean being a greedy selfish anti-social prick.
🙂
Personal lesson for 2022.
Like many of us I learned a myriad of things throughout the year on a variety of subjects but the one that stuck with me was related to physical health, it’s called back casting. In short, rather than planning forward, this imagines how a person wants to be in their last decade and works backwards to achieve this.
This is related to things individuals have a level of control over as opposed to genes, Alzheimers or existing major ailments or illnesses etc that might otherwise preclude us from taking certain action.
In my case for example, assuming I live into my mid 80s and am lucid (my hope), I wish to be able to exercise, walk unaided, live entirely independently, lift and hold a great grandchild unaided and provide some assistance to others. Accordingly, I’ll need to undertake certain exercises involving strength and lifting as well as aerobic and balance to achieve this.
Whilst this is not in itself monumental, it’s different from looking forward and assuming a natural decline. There is a sphere of thought that elements of the boomer generation can be the first to achieve (on a slightly larger scale) centenarian status through targeted activity and reasonable diet rather than relying on genes or telomeres which currently decide longevity.
Is it better to be poor and unhappy than rich and unhappy?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/dec/30/im-a-therapist-to-the-ultra-rich-trust-me-when-i-say-glass-onion-is-not-as-far-fetched-as-you-think
cronus
One key is to be ready to call out doctors who diagnose ‘ageing’ as a cause for something.
Good comment Cronus 4.58
If I’m lucky enough to make it to 90yo, I would hope by then the law would allow me the choice of ending my life with dignity and peace.
Until then, may good health and good medicine be with us all. 🙂
Some people say if you have enough money and can make it to 2050 in reasonable shape, immortality is a good possibility.
Just watched the end of an ABC program about the Y2K bug.
A Y2K Project manager claiming it was a scam. Wonder how much he raked in.
And claims no systems failed!
Lol. I know of one.
Wonder if they thought to ask the system admin staff?
Spare Microvax can be useful.
Boerwar at 4.56 pm
Shoebridge is likely to see to it pronto. He knows the NSW electoral situation very well, including the fact that ambivalence about the Voice could cost the Greens votes in March. Don’t be surprised if Shoebridge comes out strongly for the Voice by the last week of Jan, followed by most if not all of the Greens party room, especially if Dutton chooses No. Already the Nat decision (excluding the sensible Nats in WA) has not really helped No much; in fact, on balance, it has harmed No, because it has highlighted the fact that the Tories are not united on the Voice and never will be.
Obviously the No spruikers will be trying hard to cause havoc, but they risk being seen as a backward-looking rabble. Note that the government is modifying the machinery, i.e. standard public info stuff for a referendum, for running the campaign in the media. This will ensure that the Yes campaign gets more exposure than the No campaign, just because there is a limit to how much most Australians will listen to a Hanson rant.
The No spruikers will not get the previous position of an open platform to campaign on (for all previous referenda except 1967 re Rights for Aborigines, when there was no No campaign because there were no dissenting votes to the enabling legislation). This will in effect privatise the Opposition to the Voice. It will be led by Hanson, who will see it as an exercise in consolidating her party’s vote, oblivious to the fact that there will be no state elections for almost a year after the Voice referendum.
If you want to win a national vote and also win in 4 states, having Hanson as the most vociferous opponent of the Voice is no bad thing. Her nutters have a 5% minimum even when completely disorganised and hostile to the media (WA election in 2017), but they are nowhere near capable of influencing majority opinion against the Voice.
Lars Von Trier @ #1781 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 4:54 pm
Don’t try and mischaracterise my post, Liar. I was referring to Russian gun laws being tightened by Putin.
Putin used a school shooting to introduce tougher gun laws in Russia:
https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Russia-Toughens-Gun-Control-20210702-0019.html
Published 2 July 2021
The amendments also include provisions preventing an owner to keep and bear arms
Sounds tougher than our gun laws to me.
Now, if you don’t mind, if you could take your unnatural obsession with me and shove it I would appreciate it. You’ve already made too many gross and unsubstantiated assertions about me for one lifetime and I respectfully request that you take your unnatural obsession and apply it to something else. It seems to me you get sadistic pleasure out of that sort of thing.
Dr Doolittle,
Why do you think Warren Mundine has nailed his colours to the ‘No Voice’ mast?
I picked out my ancient copy of Tolstoy’s “Tales of Army Life” and started to read it.
About his time in the Russian Army in Crimea.
Hang on, this sounds familiar!!
Then looked up the Crimean War in Wikipedia:
https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Crimean_war
plus ça change…
Comment on Russia in the 1850’s:
Except for the last few words!!
Dr D & BW. Please do not to take my guesses at the future too seriously, as I don’t get out much. But on the Voice, my thoughts are entirely emotional. I tell myself that surely, I am not alone in this. It is such a simple thing, and it says so much. It harms no-one and can help so many.
Player One @ Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 4:03 pm
“”Griff @ #1764 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 2:05 pm
In this instance, are you seriously unable to discern the difference to how people respond to an opinion poll and how they vote?”
Oh look, another entry for the stupidest comment ever posted on this site. And I think this one is even better – why, it is almost as if you have absolutely no clue what PB is about.”
I think we should make this an annual award, and since it’s almost the end of the year there is a pretty good chance this one will be the winner!”
Simple repetition of personal abuse. Sadly there is nowhere to go in helping you and I shall only be providing more grist for your mill. Carry on, Your Majesty 😉
That said, I hope you have a Happy New Year! Everyone needs some kindness.
When your in a hole quit digging c@t
Here’s the fact check on the website your now trying to cite to cover your tracks:
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/telesur/
Looks like some sort of weird Venezuelan agitprop outfit.
Anyways your obviously not going to own up, I’m leaving it here.
C@tmomma @ Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 5:19 pm
“Dr Doolittle,
Why do you think Warren Mundine has nailed his colours to the ‘No Voice’ mast?”
I think it was when Thorpe was still being vocal. See:
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/indigenous-leader-nyunggai-warren-mundine-and-greens-come-together-to-oppose-the-voice-to-parliament/news-story/a93e9ceee1665b707fd3f1ffa6e9eda7
But who knows what Mundine will say next?
Lars Von Trier @ #1797 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 5:26 pm
Attacking the messenger, ie the website, when it’s the laws that Putin brought in in 2021 that are the point, is a lame way to fail to admit I’m right and you’re wrong. But that’s you all over.
If you really want to prove you’re right and I’m wrong disprove the substance. Show that those laws were never enacted by Putin. Especially this:
The amendments also include provisions preventing an owner to keep and bear arms
I’ll be waiting. I have no need to help YOU keep digging the hole you have obviously dug for yourself either. 😐
Mundine seems to post anti Voice stuff almost daily on twitter.
He’s not sitting on the fence.
zoomster @ #1800 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 5:38 pm
Yes, I think he believes that every Indigenous Australian can fight their way to the top like he has been able to, without needing The Voice. Though I wouldn’t know what he’s actually saying because I don’t believe a Labor Rat should be given the time of day, let alone Twitter impressions.
e.g.
‘
Nyunggai Warren Mundine AO
@nyunggai
·
Dec 30
I read it. It’s a massive nightmare bureaucracy. It will costs a fortune. Monies better spent on the ground, in the regions and remote areas where their is a massive gap to be closed. Welfare to be treated on a needs bases. Land reform so ppl can own their own homes. Economic’
Nyunggai Warren Mundine AO
@nyunggai
·
Dec 30
Reform, education, jobs via infrastructure, investment and businesses. And we already have & had voices to Parliament for the past 50 years & failed.
Nyunggai Warren Mundine AO
@nyunggai
·
Dec 29
Why the corporates are supporting the Voice is because they have been advised by one side of the debate. Jacinta & I tried to put an other side to them but companies such
@KPMG
refused.
There are factors impacting economic performance regardless of where you live across the Globe
To cherry pick the impact based on any particular Nation is not the World we live in
I have contacts at BNY Mellon and where their outlook has served me well across the journey
They continue to provide advice across the conversations we frequently have
If you are going to rely on using Google to inform then source of opinion is central
You can Google BNY Mellon for their updates, noting they are not widely reported
There is a 70% chance of a Global recession, but it is anticipated to be mild
Volatility will remain across early 2023 because the impact is not fully factored in
There is also the movement in Yields which give an alternate to Equity Markets and these movements giving (again) a traditional ballast viz a viz Equity Markets
This ballast has been absent for some period of time now so whilst the impact of Yield up, price down has impacted significantly there are better days coming