As it usually does on Boxing Day, The Australian has published quarterly aggregates of Newspoll with state and demographic breakdowns, on this occasion casting an unusually wide net from its polling all the way back to July to early this month, reflecting the relative infrequency of its results over this time. The result is a combined survey of 5771 respondents that finds Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (a swing of about 3.5% to Labor compared with the election), 57-43 in Victoria (about 2%), 55-45 in Western Australia (no change) and 57-43 in South Australia (a 4.0% swing), while trailing 51-49 in Queensland a 3% swing).
Gender breakdowns show only a slight gap, with Labor leading 54-46 among men and 56-44 among women, with the Greens as usual stronger among women among men. Age cohort results trend from 65-35 to Labor for 18-to-34 to 54-46 to the Coalition among 65-plus, with the Greens respectively on 24% and 3%. Little variation is recorded according to education or income, but Labor are strongest among part-time workers and weakest among the retired, stronger among non-English speakers but well ahead either way, and 62-38 ahead among those identifying as of no religion but 53-47 behind among Christians. You can find all the relevant data, at least for voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack.
“Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk”
So put me down for none of that happening.
I see Mundine is taking the business line. Businesses that would be owned by him most likely. The money for the services he would provide, would go mostly in his pocket and not to making much of a difference on the ground, as is the Liberal way. Closing the Gap reports over the Coalition years have proven that their way of doing things has been an absolute failure. Advocating for it all over again simply speaks to Mundine’s self-interest.
Holdenhillbilly @ #1800 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 3:50 pm
Early days of course but the Aussie yield curve turned positive the week before Xmas. So who knows…..
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/the-bond-market-s-china-warning-for-australia-20200131-p53wgw
Boerwarsays:
Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 3:52 pm
Hh
I would prefer Kouk’s prediction of ‘no recession’ to mine of ‘recession’
_____________________
Given the Kouk’s track record, I would believe your prediction over his any day of the week.
His predictions never come true, especially on interest rate rises.
nath @ #1835 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 4:45 pm
Great. These are the last people we want hanging around.
Simon Henny Penny Katich @ Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 6:02 pm
The same people that put themselves on ice in times past 😉
So, in his last 10 matches – across all formats – express bowler Jhye Richardson has taken 25 wickets at an average of 13. He averages 22 in both test match cricket and first class cricket, at a strike rate of 48. In his last first class match he took 6 wickets at 10. Yet his older, slower and not as potent a wicket taker WA teammate, Lance Morris has the inside running to replace Starc in the Sydney test. Why? And why is the msm pumping Morris’s tyres like he’s the next big thing?
Griff @ #1843 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 5:25 pm
And from me also. Rest assured that I don’t take your posts either seriously or personally.
“A Y2K Project manager claiming it was a scam. Wonder how much he raked in.
And claims no systems failed!”
Although it was overhyped, the Y2K bug was real. Much of the code written using two digit years in dates, and there was a lot of it around, would have failed had it not been fixed before 2000, for example, calculating someone’s age to look up a premium rate or calculating the duration of a contract. Some of it was missed and had to be fixed afterwards. At the site where I worked, a print program thought that output created before 1/1/2000 was 99 years old and deleted it instead of printing it.
nath @ #1835 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 5:15 pm
These are probably the same people who assured us that nuclear fusion is 20 or 30 years away … 20 or 30 years ago … 🙂
Why would you pick Renshaw and keep Harris?
Ah, Jhye has missed a few first class matches this year – so perhaps had an injury issue before the Big Bash (and I also got his and Lance’s ages around the wrong way – Lance is just over a year younger: 24+ and to be fair, his first class strike rate – if not his average – is even better than Richardson’s – 42 balls a wicket). carry on.
“ Why would you pick Renshaw and keep Harris?”
Why have either?
Steve777 @ #1859 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 6:15 pm
Both can be true. No major systems failed because those of us in the industry knew it to be possible and took it seriously. But there were also lots of scammers around claiming “the end of the world is nigh!”.
Why would you pick Renshaw and keep Harris?
Mixing Gatorade is a specialized skill
January 1, 2050 is as distant in time as December 30, 1995. Doesn’t seem so long ago.
“So, in his last 10 matches – across all formats – express bowler Jhye Richardson has taken 25 wickets at an average of 13. He averages 22 in both test match cricket and first class cricket, at a strike rate of 48. In his last first class match he took 6 wickets at 10. Yet his older, slower and not as potent a wicket taker WA teammate, Lance Morris has the inside running to replace Starc in the Sydney test. Why? And why is the msm pumping Morris’s tyres like he’s the next big thing?”
I’m a very parochial WA supporter, and a season ticket holder of the scorchers. I’ve watched some one day and some shield this season, and I didn’t know he was even in the scorchers squad and I would have been 50:50 on his place in the Shield / One day WA team.
I don’t get it at all.
Renshaw should be earmarked to replace Warner whose only overseas test centuries since 2014 have been against Bangladesh.
Steve777 @ #1859 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 6:15 pm
Yep. I was fixing a system that was supposed to be replaced by a certain 3 letter system. After telling the client, “of course we can do that”, they then turned around after the contract was signed and admitted they couldn’t. No idea if there were any legal implications but I was grateful. At least for that 12 months.
It was luck that the system that failed wasn’t mission critical. Except to the people who used it.
“Yep. I was fixing a system that was supposed to be replaced by a certain 3 letter system”
Does that 3 letter system now have a fondness for Hana?
WeWantPaul @ #1870 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 6:37 pm
Been out of IT for a while now so had to look that up. ja
Boerwar says:
Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 5:07 pm
cronus
One key is to be ready to call out doctors who diagnose ‘ageing’ as a cause for something.
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+1, and this has long been a fault with regard to dementia. We know this because there is a proportion of very aged people who are as sharp as a tack, dementia is not inevitable. Equally it turns out that there are plenty of people with tau and and amyloid deposits that don’t have Alzheimers. Ageing is inevitable but for many of us I suspect that the quality of our ageing may be within our control to a certain degree.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 5:07 pm
Good comment Cronus 4.58
If I’m lucky enough to make it to 90yo, I would hope by then the law would allow me the choice of ending my life with dignity and peace.
Until then, may good health and good medicine be with us all.
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+100, there is dignity in choice and I too want that choice.
Re Oliver Sutton’s prize for celebrity sightings:
Sitting at the barber shop on Wednesday and looked out the window at a dude in an open-necked sports shirt who looked awfully like a recent Australian Prime Minister. My suspicion was confirmed when my barber called out: “Hello Malcolm, and Lucy.” He apparently is a regular at Brian the barber’s. It’s not surprising since it was in Rose Bay, and he was the local member.
But getting the coincidental “what are the odds?” prize.
Earlier this month I had to take my wife on an extremely urgent matter to the local Emergency Department. As we were being questioned in the Triage area, I looked out and saw, coming in at the same time, an old golfing buddy of mine, and our former G.P., —-as a patient.!
“Been out of IT for a while now so had to look that up. ja”
I’ve been on the edge of a project where the first bit involved some engagement with the three letter people, and man could they sell ice to someone dying of exposure in Antarctica. If the three letters couldn’t do something it wasn’t something anyone did.
Second stage of said project involved implementation team, I swear they only have one sentence: “We can’t do that.”
Simon Henny Penny Katich @ #1786 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 2:35 pm
Never had an issue with storage. If you serve it right after making it, the consistency will be similar to soft-serve. Chuck it in the freezer (or just keep dumping LN2 into it, I guess) and it’ll firm up nicely.
No gloves needed either. Leidenfrost will keep you safe, as long as you’re not doing anything that flirts with blatant stupidity.
WeWantPaul @ #1875 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 6:47 pm
Yes, I heard that one from a number of other people I knew working for various clients.
“We can’t do that”. Had that line down pat. I can’t for the life of me figure out how they got away with it.
I also did some BI work for a property maintenance company.
3 letter implementation team occupied an entire floor. They paid well apparently.
Happy New Year Bludgers and once again thank you all for your camaraderie. I have very much enjoyed the tête-à-tête in 2022 and plenty of cause to reflect. I happen to support the variety of subjects and opinions on the open thread and am grateful to all contributors. I’ve thought much more about things I otherwise might not have and of course we’ve discussed often our favourite political topics. Mostly of course thanks again to BK and William Bowe. We’re now heading out for a quiet New Years celebration so I look forward to catching up with you all in 2023, enjoy.
nath
Not sure if you were a watcher of Parks and Recreation (I suspect it would suit your sense of humour as it did mine)? The 7 second video.
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=Parks+and+Recreation+someone+will+live+to+150+I+believe+i%27m+that+person&ei=zuqvY9iEFsqu4-EPxu-ryAw&ved=0ahUKEwjYo-3EsKP8AhVK1zgGHcb3CskQ4dUDCA8&uact=5&oq=Parks+and+Recreation+someone+will+live+to+150+I+believe+i%27m+that+person&gs_lcp=Cgxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAQAzoKCAAQRxDWBBCwAzoKCAAQ8QQQHhCiBDoFCAAQogQ6BAghEApKBAhBGABKBAhGGABQnQxY60pg9FFoAnABeACAAYwCiAGZIpIBBjAuMTUuN5gBAKABAcgBCMABAQ&sclient=gws-wiz-serp#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:784f47a3,vid:SJ2HXJQl9QI
Northconnex $9.06
M2 $9.05
Lane Cove $3.77
M5 $5.32
Cross City $6.50
M5 East which used to be free $7.98
M8 $7.98 which is why the M5 East now has a toll!
For some unknown reason the M4 wasn’t mentioned.
KY Jelly. Don’t leave home without it.
phylactella says:
Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 5:22 pm
Comment on Russia in the 1850’s:
Except for the last few words!!
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De Ja Vu?
AE
On subs some bits and pieces I came across lately:
English naval analyst HI Sutton just before AUKUs was announced rated his top five SSKs (diesel subs) in the world. The Attack we cancelled was third best.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWeg7OCGw4Y
Whilst multiple sources confirmed Macron has repeated the offer to build four SSKs for the RAN.
https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-says-france-submarine-offer-to-australia-still-on-the-table/
The offer that would be quickest to start by far, cheapest, least delivery risk and no risk of a capability gap would be to go back to building the French subs. This time we could start building the first couple of subs in France if ASC was not immediately ready.
Build four diesel Attack Class (Shortfin Barracuda) first, then transition to six or eight of the nuclear Suffren Class (Barracuda) as soon as possible. There would be a lot of commonality in components and more of the supply chain was already established in Australia for Attacks than exists for any other option. So most local work and least cost waste.
It would have the shortest start up time. The Attack design was mostly complete and the only design required would be a Suffren variant with US combat system. This would be a variation of the previous contract, which would also save a lot of time in negotiations.
Soc
One variation in the contract would be an increased component to cover off sovereign risk doing business with Australia.
“Yes, I heard that one from a number of other people I knew working for various clients.
“We can’t do that”. Had that line down pat. I can’t for the life of me figure out how they got away with it.”
I think on this project upper management / the board want the new system implemented in about 1/4 a reasonable timeframe, and so that means everything and only things absolutely out of the consultants box without anything done to fit it to the business at all (the implementation is not the three letter people, it is one of the big 4 accounting firms)
So ‘we can’t do that’ is kind of a position of power. Never the less the new system will be significantly less fit for purpose than the one it is replacing for many years.
Cat at 5.19 pm, Griff at 5.28 pm and zoomster at 5.41 pm
Many years ago Warren Mundine had some influence and did some good work while in Dubbo. He even moved there to help his wife’s career. But then his ego got the better of him, and of many in the media. The rest is history.
That was before he left the ALP. He was the National President at one time, for a year in 2006, but I understand it is largely a ceremonial-type post.
Earlier still, the author of this remarkable story, of an Aboriginal family’s long struggle in vain for justice over the death of their son in Wee Waa police custody in suspicious circumstances in 1981, said he had Warren Mundine’s support, for what it was worth. I was involved in supporting the family, and said his support was unlikely to be helpful.
https://shop.koorieheritagetrust.com.au/eddies-country-why-did-eddie-murray-die.html
Mundine’s views have been examined at length by Goot and Rowse in a 2021 article:
https://research-management.mq.edu.au/ws/portalfiles/portal/172989228/Publisher_version.pdf
I think they are overly generous to Mundine on two points: i) coherence, which he seems to lack enough of; and ii) his connections, especially through the RW media, which he has in spades, apart from the fiasco of his 2019 candidature for Gilmore. The authors note his connections, but not how much they just mirror Mundine’s huge ego.
The article is generally informative, and contains some revealing points, e.g. firstly, that Mundine once failed to get Labor pre-selection for Fowler:
“In 2004, Mundine challenged the sitting Labor member, Julia Irwin, for Labor
preselection in the federal seat of Fowler. The challenge was unsuccessful. Having
shown scant knowledge of the party’s preselection procedures, and relying on ‘senior
factional leaders’ (p. 246) rather than the local branches, Mundine covered for Head
Office’s failure to deliver for him by declaring his support for affirmative action”. (p 210)
And secondly, that Mundine is actually in favour of retaining racial discrimination in the Australian Constitution. This is scandalous, though the media haven’t yet noted it. The passage from Goot and Rowse, discussing the proposal under Gillard to eliminate racial discrimination from all Australian laws, reads:
“Along similar lines, Mundine’s commentary ‘was vicious’, Shireen Morris from the Melbourne Law School would later remark. She quoted Mundine as saying: ‘“I’m concerned about the impact the advancement clause will have on the cultural practice of taking child brides in some aboriginal communities”.’57 It would empower courts to overturn decisions by elected governments.58 From the February 2012 meeting that she and Mundine had attended, Morris concluded that Abbott and Brandis ‘wanted Parliament to retain its power to discriminate’, rather than accept a general equality provision, and Mundine ‘seemed to be nodding in agreement with Abbott and Brandis’. Cape York Aboriginal leader and Expert Panel member Noel Pearson, once debriefed, thought Mundine needed to ‘harden up a bit’. Mundine seemed ‘basically a minimalist’, like Abbott.” (p 220)
Shireen Morris shares with Mundine the distinction of being a failed third candidate for Labor Senate election in NSW. Otherwise, politically speaking, she is far superior.
Pearson must have used stronger language about Mundine, now a truly abysmal Tory lackey. He will not shrink from joining Hanson (and Latham) in opposing the Voice, but fear not, he lacks the ability to substantially influence the national political debate.
Boerwar
True. It might be an interesting experiment in quantify the cost to Australia of Liberal governments.
One difference this time is that, since both French designs are done, Labor could sign a contract with France to start building subs, not just design them. That would mean a lot more compensation than cancelling the previous contract, so a lot harder to cancel.
Happy New Year Bludgers. We are not going out – rarely do on NYE. Too many idiots with fireworks upsetting the dog.
Thank you for all the interesting conversations and stories that have keep me going this year.
C@tmomma @ #1793 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 2:45 pm
A sous-vide setup removes basically all of the uncertainty/skill from that process. 😉
Cronus says:
Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 6:57 pm
nath
Not sure if you were a watcher of Parks and Recreation (I suspect it would suit your sense of humour as it did mine)? The 7 second video.
________
Yes . v good show. But 150 years is nothing. I want to get to Alpha Centauri.
Taylormade says:
Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 5:53 pm
US stock market largest fall since 2008
European gas reserves at record high due to milder winter than usual
Gas prices in Europe lowest since Russian invasion
Coal prices due to fall rapidly due to gas surplus
Then possible repeat of China supply side inflation pressure due to Covid debacle.
2023 not looking bright, suggest canceling all digital subscriptions.
WeWantPaul I suspect they probably did implement the Financial module eventually. I think it’s probably the nature of broadcasting that their way of running the finance side and cost centre structure was bespoke. I didn’t need to go into the detail to do the Y2K upgrade but it might have been cheaper for them if they’d used the programming language properly and weren’t 2 major and a number of minor versions behind.
When I recompiled the system after upgrading to the latest version, a whole heap of things started to fail which added to delays while I found workarounds. I’m pretty sure they didn’t have a budget for that or time.
“He and his wife, Kathy Lette, probably come out here for Xmas with the Aussie family.”
Robertson and Lette are no longer together. She traded him in for a toy boy.
Evening all,
Here are my predictions for 2023 as follows. It is sadly mostly doom and gloom.
1. COVID will run rampant through China killing millions within six months particularly the elderly. The health system barely manages to hold on if not for martial law being imposed. The economy collapses in the second half of the year. Xi has several attempts by those opposed to his policies to remove him. This time in twelve months China is on the brink of total collapse. The world waits with anxiety.
2. Britain’s economy collapses and falls into a depression. Strikes across all sectors are a daily occurrence. Tens of thousands die due to a horrid winter. There is anarchy on the streets. King Charles dies suddenly.
3. Australia’s property prices fall 30 to 50%. People return to offices in droves due to soaring power prices. Petrol prices are at $3.05 a litre and above. Huge surge in public transport usage.
4. Twitter files for bankruptcy. Musk pleads for more time to raise capital.
5. Alan Joyce sacked as CEO as share price plummets following several close calls and a ‘hard landing’ which killed six people on a Melbourne – Sydney flight.
6. Mick Jagger dies.
7. Lockdowns in Victoria reintroduced to curb significant spikes in cases March through to April. These are more nuanced with week long, hard lockdowns. Cases signifcantly decrease as a result.
8. Voice fails in Parliament due to Greens + LNP + Teals + Independents going against the ALP.
9. PM calls snap election and romps home. LNP reduced to a ‘rabble’. Dutton kicked out. Teals considered the ‘new’ Liberals.
10. Russia launches missile strike to Ukraine… go off course and destroy several British Airways jets killing hundreds. Doomsday clock moved to 1 second to midnight. The world waits. Britain destroys several Russian ships and announces they will ‘destroy’ Moscow with nuclear weapons.
11. Nuclear missile misfires in North Korea… thousands killed. The first example of a nuclear warhead being exploded in recent memory with the results shown to the world.
12. Man circles the moon in NASA’s ‘Apollo Mk II’ capsule.
13. Geelong wins the AFL 2023 flag.
Hola Socrates.
You might remember my suggestion – on day one of the AUKUS announceable – that the federal government should have proceeded with the Block One (4 boat build) of the Attack class program, add in France to the tripartite technology sharing agreement announcement of the day (I can still recall C@t blathering on about AI and Interoperabiulity – oblivious to the that that most of the high end senor kit on offer was actually a product of anglo-french development over the past 20 years) and conducting a proper feasibility study involving those three nations as to future SSNs. Obviously, that would have effectively given the ultimate contracts (both the SSK interim and final SSN) to the French as prime contractors. The reasons that was verboten seem to have a lot to do with the grima worm-tongued advisings of the four retired US submarine admirals that were advising Morrison and Dutton (who also had massive conflicts of interest), and the antipathy that certain sections of the RAN brass (mainly former frigate commanders like Admiral Byng, certainly not shared by the actual submariners in the RAN) felt towards the French, in combination with their forelocktugging propensity felt toward the Brits.
What a hot mess.
Pretty lame to just make predictions for 2023 based on what you want to happen. Having said that, here are mine:
1. Bill Shorten is ‘managed out’ towards the end of the year to a European ambassadorial post.
2. Boerwar is violently removed to an elderly maximum security twilight facility without internet access.
3. Putin is overthrown in March. It is revealed that Elon Musk is the real ruler and Putin has been his puppet all along.
4. Collingwood wins the 2023 AFL Premiership initiating a run of 4 Premierships to rival the great Collingwood team of 1927-30 known as ‘the Machine’. Collingwood Coach Craig McCrae is procalimed ‘Restitutor Orbis’.
Yes of course Nath you right wing fascist troll.
Nath was doing well there until number 4.
Lars Von Triersays:
Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 4:02 pm
um C@t u obviously dont know that Robertson and Lette divorced some years ago. That’s the problem with reposting and passing off I guess if you dont really follow something.
~~~~~
What a comment to bring in the new year and close out the old one. It could possibly take out the best observation on this blog for 2022. C@t and random google links go hand in hand.
Although I still reckon the famous ive seem the secret chinese plans to invade australia 500 years in the making posts as the best ever c@tism.
Well folks Happy New Year in a couple of hours. The Upnorth family has been enjoying the snow and tucker in the Land of the Rising Sun. Best wishes of health and happiness to all Bludgers.
As promised the secret votes for “Poster of the Year” have been counted and one lucky Bludger will soon win the Grand Prize of Taylormades left ball courtesy of a Katherine Deves wedge.
Dr John was looking after the tote. Despite some rippers and some prodding by Dr John, sorry C@t you haven’t won.
BK has come bloody close with all his prizes for post of the day (Dawn Patrol) and some extras (again cobber sorry about Jasper).
Mavis and Shellbell – our Legal Eagles flew high but didn’t push out the winner.
Nath, Boerwar, Andrew Earlwood and Socrates all got runs on the board but no Cigar. Pageboi and The Old Goat came and went and came again. Always welcome.
Later Riser and D&M threw their weight around along with our Lord and Master whom we thank William Bowe.
Ladies and Gentlemen. E.G. Theodore has counted the brown envelopes and the 2022 poster of the year – with a special mention for his constant humour with a citation for sourcing the funniest polling during the Victorian Election is ………. Taylormade!
Well done cobber. From “Right Field” you are the poster of the year. You win back that left ball of yours. Congratulations.
Keep up the funny posts in 2023. LOL Taylormade.
Now I’m off to eat Fugu and have a few droops of Sparkling Sake. Love youse All!
Have a good one Upnorth and to all other non crazies. It’s a vodka night for me, with a blunt or 2 or 3 or 4.