Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July to December (open thread)

Relatively modest leads for the Coalition among Queenslanders, Christians and those 65-and-over, with Labor dominant everywhere else.

As it usually does on Boxing Day, The Australian has published quarterly aggregates of Newspoll with state and demographic breakdowns, on this occasion casting an unusually wide net from its polling all the way back to July to early this month, reflecting the relative infrequency of its results over this time. The result is a combined survey of 5771 respondents that finds Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (a swing of about 3.5% to Labor compared with the election), 57-43 in Victoria (about 2%), 55-45 in Western Australia (no change) and 57-43 in South Australia (a 4.0% swing), while trailing 51-49 in Queensland a 3% swing).

Gender breakdowns show only a slight gap, with Labor leading 54-46 among men and 56-44 among women, with the Greens as usual stronger among women among men. Age cohort results trend from 65-35 to Labor for 18-to-34 to 54-46 to the Coalition among 65-plus, with the Greens respectively on 24% and 3%. Little variation is recorded according to education or income, but Labor are strongest among part-time workers and weakest among the retired, stronger among non-English speakers but well ahead either way, and 62-38 ahead among those identifying as of no religion but 53-47 behind among Christians. You can find all the relevant data, at least for voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,276 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July to December (open thread)”

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  1. Dr Doolittle,
    Anyone who can even conceive in their own Indigenous mind that other Indigenous Australians are capable of being ‘too Aboriginal’ is incapable of being an honest broker in the campaign. Warren Mundine is beginning his campaign from a position of being inherently against the aspirations of his own people.

    Honestly, the only reason he is given a platform at all is because he is forcefully inserted into the campaign by the Coalition. He, and now Jacinta Price, are the Right Wing avatars for Indigenous Australia. I get that Indigenous Australians are allowed to be conservative of disposition, however I simply find the arguments that these two are proffering against The Voice to Parliament have nothing whatsoever to do with a traditional conservative mindset. Actually, I believe they are both coming from an opportunistic mindset antithetical to the traditional egalitarian values of Indigenous Australia.

  4. Socrates @ #1950 Saturday, December 31st, 2022 – 10:35 pm

    Sorry if I’ve put a downer on the evening. I wish all bludgers a happy new year.

    You’re cool for school, Soc. 🙂

    You are nowhere near, not even in the universe, of belittling blog behaviour, that Lars von Trier and Andrew_Earlwood inhabit. They can’t help themselves. They have to find a way to denigrate myself and other contributors when they comment. It used to hurt me. Not anymore. I just feel pity for them now, smile and carry on. 🙂

    I hope you have a Happy New Year, Socrates. And Xanthippe too. And I believe that SA manufacturing industry will too. 🙂

  6. Just popped in to say happy new years to you all. Take care of yourselves and your family. Good to see you again beguiledagain. Thanks for the blog Monsieur Bowe.

    I have high hopes for this year before us.

  7. Socrates at 10.35 pm

    Not at all. Now that you mention old Fishnets, he opposes the Voice. He recently spouted all the conventional arguments against the Voice, speaking to the Liberal base (excluding Higgins and Kooyong these days). See:

    https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/a-new-era-of-discrimination-alexander-downer-slams-voice-to-parliament-outlines-challenges-centreright-parties-must-address/news-story/1513833e382a2825787fc831ab6cdb7c

  10. Happy New Year bludgers! I haven’t commented much here I know, but I want everyone to know how much I enjoy reading the daily banter and the diversity of topics for discussion. This blog really is unique in that way and I find it very refreshing.

    I’m heading back to my childhood stomping ground in northern Victoria, spending a couple of weeks with my wife and kids on the family farm which my older brother and his family have run since my dad retired 5 years ago. I intend to spend every day taking in the sounds and smells (even the stinky ones!) and making the most of a slower, meaningful life on the land for the next two weeks.

    I wish everyone here all the best for 2023!

  11. ”
    Dr Johnsays:
    Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 10:43 pm
    Socrates all the best to you and a great 2023.
    No downer here and you have done well even though punchin’ well below your weight range.
    ”

    Currently I am blogging while travelling in a train from Strasbourg to Stuttgart. Oh the wonders of Internet and WiFi.
    How should I punch Dr. John? 🙂

  13. “ A26 a very interesting boat.”

    The A26 is a nice glossy brochure. It hasn’t even progressed to the design stage that the Attack class was at when that program was canned, let alone where the Type SG 212 is at now, or where the Japanese seem to have taken their evolved Soryu class.

    Earlier this year, once it became apparent that AUKUS was a pure Morrison stunt, C@t attempted her version of a pivot – from outright enthusiastic proponent of the wunderwaffe on offer – to a predictor that that was where we’d end up under Sir Charles Marles. No shit Sherlock: the fix is in, and Marles has been promised a whole squadron of Virginia Class snowcones by Lloyd Austin. We’ll never end up actually getting any real SSN subs tho- we just don’t have the … heft … to pull that off. Not under AUKUS anyways. We will provide a bunch of additional American bases tho: american strategic bombers and american nuclear subs – all doing American … stuff … while feckless Australian politicians line up to mindlessly salute the (American) flag.

  14. You really are a steaming pile of crap, Andrew_Earlwood. Do you always ascribe motivation to people when you have nfi? Sure seems like it to me. I pity you and your nasty personality, I really do.

  15. Happy New Year, whenever it may occur for you.

    My pious ejaculation is that in 2023 that the vAustralian environment and Australian children are honoured, nurtured and protected from the policies of our creepy fpoliticians.

  16. ”
    Late Risersays:
    Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 10:47 pm
    Croatia joins the Shengen zone and adopts the Euro.
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/31/croatia-to-switch-to-euro-enter-passport-free-schengen-zone
    ”

    LR
    What I noticed in Europe is that countries, which switched to Euro need to have economies of about atleast 70% of advanced economies of Germany and France. Otherwise people of those countries that adapted will find the goods they usually buy suddenly very expensive.
    What I found was that the goods that are sold in modest townships of France are expensive when compared to Sydney, Australia.
    I did not find much price difference between big cities and smaller cities of France.
    So what is happening is that although there are huge number of tourists, I mean really huge, I found a lot of shops are not having buying customers.

  17. Thanks C@t! Exactly the sentiment for my homecoming! Irrigated pastures instead of cane fields, but I did see Friesians in the clip, so very reflective of the things that make home in the country so special to me! All the best to you and yours for 2023!

  18. Ven at 11.02 pm

    You jumped over the primary question – whether you should even contemplate punching anyone, metaphorically or otherwise. Certainly not. As Mavis will tell you, anger in action ain’t no good for health.

    Better to ask Dr John for his odds on Sunak winning the next UK election. Whatever the odds he gives you, better to decline.

    Tories stuck on 24% via YouGov before Xmas. No sign of any festive season bounce. It could get messy for Sunak well before 2025 – a downer like Downer.

  19. Ven, have you spotted where locals do their shopping as a comparison? The Euro is a strong currency. And of course, many tourists might be visitors from other Euro states. It might be complicated. Anecdotally, I don’t travel any more, but when I did, I found Germany surprisingly expensive relative to the US, Canada and Australia. (BTW. My birthplace is just outside Stuttgart.)

    Safe travels!

  20. Why are you trying to back out of what you’ve written on this blog, C@t? Why so sensitive?

    In September 2021, Morrison cut off Australia’s right hand with his left. And you cheered.

    My first post summed up my prediction at the time of the AUKUS announcement in one word: catastrophe. Nothing has changed really, has it? I was hopeful that maybe … just maybe … a pivot back to sanity would prevail … but I fear the fix is well and truly in and we are … stuck. Catastrophe.

    along the way, it wasn’t just me you were – and still are presumably – prepared to put in the bin in pursuit of your ‘let’s kick Xi in the cods with NUCS!!!’ Stratagem. Keating. In the bin. Hugh White. Bin. Stephen Fitzgerald. Binned. The memory of Gough. The very institutions of the modern labor party. Bin. Bin. Bin. You were all the way with the victorian wolverines. A deadset embarrassment to everything that a modern progressive Social Democratic Party stands for. Or should.

    What a glass jaw you have. Full in equal measure of bile and self pity.

    but. it’s festivus. So … happy new year comrade C@t.

  22. Socrates:

    Now that my dog problems have been resolved, I’m from the old school: one shouldn’t speak ill of the dead unless they’ve been personally or vicariously untowardly affected by the late Pope. If I were touched up by a priest, I can appreciate their lifelong scars. The worst I was personally subjected to was a senior scout who flashed his dick. I have immense empathy for those who’ve been subjected to worse but to pile on Benedict is in my firm view over the top.

  24. Like Bart Simpson said “I see it but I don’t believe it”

    https://thehill.com/homenews/3785645-sean-hannity-admits-in-deposition-he-didnt-believe-trump-voter-fraud-claims/

    “Sean Hannity admits in deposition he didn’t believe Trump voter fraud.

    Fox News host Sean Hannity admitted under oath that he “did not believe” for “one second” there was mass voter fraud in the 2020 election.

    Hannity’s testimony was included in court depositions released on Wednesday in the Delaware Superior Court, according to The New York Times. The depositions were part of a $1.6 billion defamation lawsuit against Fox News brought by Dominion Voting Systems.

    Hannity was responding to a question in the deposition on whether he believed the false claims made by former President Trump’s attorney Sidney Powell in November 2020.

    Powell told Hannity then that there was widespread fraud in the 2020 election and that voting machines manufactured by Dominion Voting Systems helped steal the election by switching votes.

    “I did not believe it for one second,” Hannity said in the released deposition, according to the Times.”

  25. Well I survived the Fugu and sparkling Sake. We have decided to mark the coming New Year on Queensland time then off to bed. Happy New Year Bludgers and more victories for Democratic Socialism.

  28. Well, 2023 has arrived in Brisbane. Let’s hope it is a good year. And spare a thought for Ukraine tonight, where the bombs are raining.

  31. Yes that does mean I wish ct, taylormerde, eleventy rex, and lard, a Happy New year (hee hee),
    because without them, PB would be Sooooo boring* (as they are a fucking hoot!)

    * boring but really interesting because of everyone else

  34. Happy New Year, all.

    ‘John Howard overrode George Pell’s objections to allow research using surplus IVF embryos’

    ‘Cabinet papers 2002: PM lifted ban despite opposition of conservatives and religious leaders, including then Archbishop Pell’

    As they say in the classics: ‘Get your rosaries off our ovaries!’

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jan/01/john-howard-overrode-george-pells-objections-to-allow-research-using-surplus-ivf-embryos

  36. Happy New Year, one and all.
    And a special thanks to the likes of Socrates, Itza( if you’re lurking) , BK , Upnorth, Cronus , D&M , etc., for being such great company in the PB lounge.

  37. ”Well, 2023 has arrived in Brisbane.”

    Eventually. It was an hour late.

    2023 dawns mild, humid and overcast in Sydney with showers lurking about.

  39. Hi C@t
    No. I am quite spent at the moment and might take a few more days off.
    It’s a very slow news period anyway – apart from yesterday when there were a number of good, reflective pieces that appeared.

  43. Happy New Year BK, C@T, Quasar, Davo, Socrates, Boerwar, Upnorth and so many other Bludgers.
    A nice quiet restaurant meal for us last night away fro major festivities. I was hoping that we’d soon be replacing fireworks with laser light shows on NYE but perhaps not. Pity, our dogs hate the fireworks and I think of them as being very 20th century and unenvironmental.

  44. Good to see you holding hands with John Howard’s mate, Hugh ‘Weapons of Mass Destruction’ White, Andrew_Earlwood. Says it all, really about you. You’re prepared to find common cause with the Anti Labor enemy and any port in a storm, just because that person agrees with you. Sad. And to try and use historical antecedents to again try and prove your current point, as I don’t know what Gough’s laudable moves 50 years ago have got to do with the China of Xi Xinping now? Thank goodness Penny Wong, Anthony Albanese and Richard Marles aren’t on the China appeasement boat with you and have been able to show strength in making it clear to Xi that they are open to resolving our Trade differences but that doesn’t mean they also don’t go forward with the AUKUS Alliance. Which is such a mistake, apparently, other countries want to join it.

    And nothing says how mistaken you are than to see Xi and Putin going forward with their plans to try and dominate the world. There’s nothing so much as that which says that there needs to be a robust defense and geopolitical counter-balance and I have no shame in admitting that we need to protect our wonderful country by aligning with like-minded democracies around the world and in the region.

    Oh, and if Gough were alive today he’d probably agree with me. His supreme intelligence would never have seen him have the blinkers on about China, as you have Andrew_Earlwood, and he would have been modifying his position accordingly as the leadership and the situation in China morphed.

    But you go back to your comfy armchair General Earlwood with Hugh and Stephen and Paul (who also made an egregious mistake to advise the Liberals to kick the Indigenous performers out of Barangaroo) and continue to believe that a woman can’t possibly know as much as you. You sad bunch of old men. What is that saying about people who know everything and have learnt nothing? 🙂

  45. Cronus @ #1958 Sunday, January 1st, 2023 – 7:33 am

    Happy New Year BK, C@T, Quasar, Davo, Socrates, Boerwar, Upnorth and so many other Bludgers.
    A nice quiet restaurant meal for us last night away fro major festivities. I was hoping that we’d soon be replacing fireworks with laser light shows on NYE but perhaps not. Pity, our dogs hate the fireworks and I think of them as being very 20th century and unenvironmental.

    Thank you, Cronus! Back at you for a Happy New Year! I had the same thought myself about the fireworks last night as I watched them on the television. They always promise that this year is going to be the best ever and new and different, but it just ends up being the same old, same old, music with big bangs and the same sort of fireworks as last time.

    And not only dogs, but horses don’t like the noise either. Not to mention Autistic humans, like the lady my son looks after. Yes, we should move on to a more environmentally friendly way to ring in the New Year. The 700 people in the Pub Choir singing Auld Lang Syne was the highlight for me last night, not the fireworks.

  46. Should auld bludge-quaintance be forgot
    And never brought to mind…

    That’s the cue for Happy New Year. I was with Mrs Avenger, and a coterie of fine friends, when the midnight hour turned to silver and gold with fireworks on the ABC, so I belatedly wish you all the best for the coming 12 months.

    My wish is slightly more sincerely aimed at some Bludgers than others, but I will refrain from pulling out the magic mirror from Romper Room and saying who I can see, as that can lead to disappointment. Miss Helena never said my name once, and it’s not like I was called Zebedee! Paul was an extremely common name for kids born in the mid-sixties!

    I think it was Miss Helena in Sydney. There was a different Romper Room, with a different host, in every city, and I’ve just discovered Newcastle had the only regional Romper Room. No fast train, but at least they got their own Romper Room. Stand tall, Novocastrians.

    I just took one sneaky peak into the magic bloggy bludgy mirror and I saw Mr Bowe, without whom PB would never have existed. Cheers WB!

  47. I’m getting together something approaching a Dawn Patrol. Though it’s probably more appropriately titled A Casual Stroll in the Morning Patrol today. 🙂

  49. Red wave? What red wave.

    This lengthy NY Times article examines the rise of partisan polling, and the consequences. The Trafalgar Group and Insider Advantage in particular are fingered for Republican cheer leading…

    In the election’s immediate aftermath, the polling failures appeared to be in keeping with misfires in 2016 and 2020, when the strength of Donald J. Trump’s support was widely underestimated, and with the continuing struggles of an industry that arose with the corded home telephone to adapt to the mass migration to cellphones and text messaging. Indeed, some of the same Republican-leaning pollsters who erred in 2022 had built credibility with their contrarian, but accurate, polling triumphs in recent elections.

    But a New York Times review of the forces driving the narrative of a coming red wave, and of that narrative’s impact, found new factors at play.

    Traditional nonpartisan pollsters, after years of trial and error and tweaking of their methodologies, produced polls that largely reflected reality. But they also conducted fewer polls than in the past.

    That paucity allowed their accurate findings to be overwhelmed by an onrush of partisan polls in key states that more readily suited the needs of the sprawling and voracious political content machine — one sustained by ratings and clicks, and famished for fresh data and compelling narratives.

    The skewed red-wave surveys polluted polling averages, which are relied upon by campaigns, donors, voters and the news media. It fed the home-team boosterism of an expanding array of right-wing media outlets — from Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast and “The Charlie Kirk Show” to Fox News and its top-rated prime-time lineup. And it spilled over into coverage by mainstream news organizations, including The Times, that amplified the alarms being sounded about potential Democratic doom.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html

  50. FT writers’ predictions for the world in 2023

    Like many observers, the FT got its biggest call for 2022 wrong. Though we acknowledged it might be wishful thinking, our Europe editor Ben Hall suggested last year there was no rational case for Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine. Logic, sadly, proved no bar to the Russian leader’s calamitous gamble.

    If we were hopeful last year that war would be avoided, Tony Barber is pessimistic about the chances of a lasting ceasefire in 2023.

    And David Sheppard forecasts, on balance, that Europe will experience blackouts as Moscow squeezes natural gas exports.

    Given mounting concerns, we ask again this year if China will invade Taiwan, adding the possibility of a blockade.

    In all, five FT predictions for 2022 missed the mark. We were wrong in calling an end to the “great resignation”; Tesla’s shares fell, thanks in part to Elon Musk’s Twitter escapades; and the Democrats retained the US Senate. We judged incorrect Clive Cookson’s forecast that a more infectious Covid variant than Omicron would emerge, though sub-variants did, and China’s reopening has sparked new concerns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/9784cc74-1193-4e1b-bf61-8ecaf19f569e

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