As it usually does on Boxing Day, The Australian has published quarterly aggregates of Newspoll with state and demographic breakdowns, on this occasion casting an unusually wide net from its polling all the way back to July to early this month, reflecting the relative infrequency of its results over this time. The result is a combined survey of 5771 respondents that finds Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (a swing of about 3.5% to Labor compared with the election), 57-43 in Victoria (about 2%), 55-45 in Western Australia (no change) and 57-43 in South Australia (a 4.0% swing), while trailing 51-49 in Queensland a 3% swing).
Gender breakdowns show only a slight gap, with Labor leading 54-46 among men and 56-44 among women, with the Greens as usual stronger among women among men. Age cohort results trend from 65-35 to Labor for 18-to-34 to 54-46 to the Coalition among 65-plus, with the Greens respectively on 24% and 3%. Little variation is recorded according to education or income, but Labor are strongest among part-time workers and weakest among the retired, stronger among non-English speakers but well ahead either way, and 62-38 ahead among those identifying as of no religion but 53-47 behind among Christians. You can find all the relevant data, at least for voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack.
@andrew_earlwood your observations @ 9.39am are a little unnerving. Based on postings here, I understood that c@t was a person of some influence in local Labor. With postings like that against someone like Hugh White I do hope it is of limited influence.
In reality, during the rantings of the previous Government and the cheerleading of the Victorian ALP cos players (with some amplification from Latika Bourke and the Nine Paper) Hugh White was prepared to stand up against the orthodoxy and articulate a well reasoned alternative. That took guts. He deserves some acknowledgement and gratitude for that not scorn that he is an enemy of Labor from someone of influence like c@t.
Well he was ambasada back in the 1970s so i dont see how credable he is at least duttons stratigy of making relaetions worse with china has failed desbite there bad human rights record hue white is corect that us concern and the likes of aspi is not human rights it is to cover up that China will replace us as supper power desbite the spinn off morrison this has been prodicted since rudd was pm and in order to keep the myth of us going they use china as the enimy they had no problim with the human rights in tabet in 2008
Happy new year and yeah this:
“Nath was doing well there until number 4.”
Who knows what Mark Arbib is up to?
I just read in the SMH gossip column that he has left Packer’s employ
‘Oakeshott Country says:
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 11:26 am
BW
As Australia had not adopted the Statue of Westminster, RGM was speaking the truth; UK could and did declare war on our behalf. The situation in the two dominions that had adopted the statute was quite different.’
————————–
Thank you for that. I had not known. I dare say the outcome, and the sentiments, would have been the same either way. It does flag the risks to our sovereignty, in relation to war decision-making, of having US forces bases in Oz.
“ Who knows what Mark Arbib is up to?
I just read in the SMH gossip column that he has left Packer’s employ”
I bumped into him and had a quick chat two weeks ago at the Callala Bay Triathlon festival – he was doing the Super Spint Triathlon (I think he one his age group) and I did the ‘Aquabike’ (swim & bike; no run) where I placed a distant second in my age group. We didn’t talk about politics or work.
Ratification of the Statute of Westminster by Australia had to await the coming to office of a Labor Government.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 11:48 am
I bumped into him and had a quick chat two weeks ago at the Callala Bay Triathlon festivalWe didn’t talk about politics or work.
_______
Well what would be the point. He’s only ever been interested in one side of politics; the Mark Arbib side.
Arbib was also revealed by wikileaks to be a U.S ‘protected source’. You could have asked him about that.
I suspect he will continue to move up in the corporate world but if not he could look after Joe’s sweet shop (Crazy for Candy, Burwood Westfield) as I understand that the proprietor may shortly be going for a very long holiday.
(I also wonder if McClymont mistyped sweet shop for sweat shop)
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-candyman-the-cabinet-minute-and-the-criminal-charges-20220719-p5b2x5.html
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 8:56 am
George Mega sees it. Albo has become a Teal.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-lines-up-to-ride-a-global-progressive-wave-20221230-p5c9ep.html
I hope traditional Labor voters continue to remind him to go back and pick up those he’s left behind living in poverty.
The Labor party has traditionally been the party of Labor. As we don’t have a working poor in Australia; why do you consider those without a job a particular problem for Labor?
Social cohesion is a problem for all, why do you consider it a particular concern for a traditional Labor voter?
Oakeshott Country says:
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 11:57 am
I suspect he will continue to move up in the corporate world but if not he could look after Joe’s sweet shop (Crazy for Candy, Burwood Westfield) as I understand that the proprietor may shortly be going for a very long holiday.
(I also wonder if McClymont mistyped sweet shop for sweat shop)
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-candyman-the-cabinet-minute-and-the-criminal-charges-20220719-p5b2x5.html
_________
Fascinating story that. You have to hand it to the Obeids, they don’t play for peanuts. Most Australian politicians would do almost anything for 10k and some free food.
Boerwar at 9.49 am
Commiserations for your household. Don’t take a negative RAT at face value. Be ready with your prescription for anti-virals. I have an old friend, senior to you, in Bicton near Fremantle who contracted Covid in October. After two negative RATs he doubted those. He chased up a PCR at one of the three remaining sites in Perth, confirming his Covid. He said the symptoms started to diminish quite quickly upon taking the anti-virals.
Pity the poor Chinese, who cannot access such medicines, except for those in the elite who have their private stockpiles. The timing of the opening up there is a disaster. See:
https://www.ft.com/content/fb879510-c2bb-4a04-8e36-182078ae15ec
‘Despite heavy controls on public dissent, Chinese censors have struggled to staunch the flood of complaints on social media. Most have focused on the lack of forewarning or preparation for China’s thinly resourced healthcare system ahead of the reopening.
“If [China] opens at the end of the year, then what is the reason for so many cities being closed down for three months this year?” said one social media user. “Why choose to open up in winter when the virus is the most active and the people’s immunity system is weakest?”’
What is it that people have so much difficulty understanding the Albanese Labor Government that they frame what is happening as ‘Albanese has become a Teal.’ I call bullshit.
For starters, the Teals have no common ideological framework. They are united by a bit of fire in the belly about women’s equity, climate change action and integrity. Beyond that their political mainsprings are all over the shop. Steggall, for one, declared loudly that ‘Albanese was worse than Morrison.’
Several of the Teals have indicated they would support a Coalition government. Several of the Teals are basically Liberal elite defectees. Several of the Teals could loosely be defined as pro business and anti-union. They come from connected, established families. They are wealthy. They are better educated than the average population. None of them come from a union background. None of them come from working class families.
What did happen?
Several of the Teals adopted Labor values and Labor policies while decrying Labor as being the same as the Liberals. But follow the money. With climate change, integrity and women’s equity issues done, the Teals will be trying to scupper or weaken legislation that favours unions and workers in favour of business.
As Pocock has already demonstrated.
Dr D
Thanks for the advice and for the thoughts. All our festive season arrangements have been deranged and we have our fingers crossed that the person who is positive does not go on to develop further symptoms.
I feel very sorry for the people of China.
I have a general feeling that our shutdowns gave time for most people to get vaccinated and am a bit shocked that the authorities in China did not get everyone, particularly the aged, vaccinated properly when they had the chance.
It is almost as if they panicked when the Shutdown Protests erupted. Perhaps these were much worse than reported in the West?
OH, and self have both had the four shots but we are thinking that maybe we were too diligent and got in too early. We have been diligent social distancers, mask wearers and jabbees while thinking all along that it would probably be family contacts that the virus would exploit as vectors…!
Nath
In all this, the one I don’t understand is McDonald – he was the one who was vital in facilitating the mining licenses which would have given hundreds of millions to the Obeid family and Maitland but his cut was relative peanuts, a few free good meals, top shelf wine and a massage from “Tiffanie” (who later told ICAC that “ she was not a qualified masseuse and there was no massage table or lotion in the Four Seasons hotel room”)
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/ian-macdonald-and-a-prostitute-called-tiffanie-icac-finds-former-minister-acted-corruptly-20130731-2qyaf.html
He will likely die in jail – how did he think this was worth it
frednk @ #2061 Sunday, January 1st, 2023 – 11:01 am
The Coalition treats the jobless with unmasked contempt. If Labor does no better, who will?
Oakeshott Country says:
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 12:23 pm
Nath
In all this, the one I don’t understand is McDonald – he was the one who was vital in facilitating the mining licenses which would have given hundreds of millions to the Obeid family and Maitland but his cut was relative peanuts, a few free good meals, top shelf wine and a massage from “Tiffanie” (who later told ICAC that “ she was not a qualified masseuse and there was no massage table or lotion in the Four Seasons hotel room”)
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/ian-macdonald-and-a-prostitute-called-tiffanie-icac-finds-former-minister-acted-corruptly-20130731-2qyaf.html
He will likely die in jail – how did he think this was worth it
____________________
I’d suggest that he was to be looked after later. Although we don’t know how good Tiffanie is.
nath: “Most Australian politicians would do almost anything for 10k and some free food.”
Arfur See-No-Donors was angling for a multi-million windfall from Sydney Water.
Such a lack of talent .. all in one spot at the same time
I hear that Tiffanie does a good breakfast, nath.
A French breakfast: a roll with a little honey.
So, I’ve taken 10 pages of notes on the Fitzgerald ‘Whitlam Oration 2017’. It’s going to take some time to type it all up. 😀
First of all I’m going for a walk because I’ve been sat in a chair all morning!
I’m starting to think that this C@t versus Earlwood thing is contrived for the amusement of the protagonists: people can’t be that angry for no reason…
Boerwar @ #1743 Sunday, January 1st, 2023 – 12:19 pm
Boerwar
If you can get access to a GP, and the positive person is likely eligible, the antivirals worked a treat on us. Having said that OH is still showing a slight positive on a RAT done yesterday. 2.5 weeks after the initial positive. We are both feeling fine though
From c@t a couple of pages back:
“I get that Indigenous Australians are allowed to be conservative of disposition, however I simply find the arguments that these two are proffering against The Voice to Parliament have nothing whatsoever to do with a traditional conservative mindset.”
Yup, “Indigenous Australians” as a demographic do, like any demographic, cover a full spectrum from good people who want to do good in the world, all the way to arseholes who just want what they want and Fwark everyone else. Pretty normal human condition stuff actually.
On the Voice, it certainly represents and opportunity for the more arsehole end of the spectrum (of a lot of different demographics) to up their brand recognition and lock in their ilk. Sad.
And I really do think that for some of the Indigenous people coming out and opposing the Voice its fundamentally about them preserving what they see as their positions and influence in politics. They don’t want a Voice to Parliament because THEY want to be the Voice to Parliament. Bugger broad representation, they have their constituencies and supporters, they will keep them happy above all else, and they will prioritize being LOUD over actually getting anything real done.
I’ve watched a lot on opinions about the Voice, and seems to me that the costs are nuthin compared to the value of an Indigenous Voice that CANT be silenced by the Govt of the day.
Yup, it cant compel the Govt to do anything, but the Govt will have to account for itself if there are ever strong differences in what the Voice puts forward and Govt policy. FFS, we just had an election that was at least somewhat about accountability and transparency. Shit not getting ignored and swept aside. I think Indigenous Voice to Parliament is a step on the way to actual reconciliation in Australia which probably wont end up being whatever people debating now think it will be. But Voice means that Indigenous people WILL be heard and have an influence.
Roll on the Referendum. 🙂
E. G. Theodore @ #2073 Sunday, January 1st, 2023 – 12:52 pm
Earlwood is a Prosecutor, EGT. I don’t like my own opinions being dismissed out of hand because I don’t agree with the power elites. ‘Nuff said. 😀
Sceptic:
I’m no flag expert, but it looks to me as if this event is actually only a one-flagger: one Australian flag plus the ensigns of the three services (though I can’t see any of the Chair Force light blue, which would be a giveaway)
A one-flagger! Imagine that today such would be something as minor as an announcement that the infamous red carpet has been sold off to Clive Palmer!
Happy New Year OC.
Is 2023 the year of the great reformer in Sussex Street? A New Labor Government in NSW which will turn the page on the bad old days?
Less than 90 days till we find out.
thankyou for that lr.
“Also, you can do worse than to read this once a day for a week, then once every week for a month. Let it sink in.
https://ulurustatemdev.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/UluruStatementfromtheHeartPLAINTEXT.pdf
“Our Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander tribes were the first sovereign Nations of the Australian continent and its adjacent islands … This sovereignty is a spiritual notion … It has never been ceded or extinguished, and co-exists with the sovereignty of the Crown. … With substantive constitutional change and structural reform, we believe this ancient sovereignty can shine through as a fuller expression of Australia’s nationhood. … We call for the establishment of a First Nations Voice enshrined in the Constitution. … We seek a Makarrata Commission to supervise a process of agreement-making between governments and First Nations and truth-telling about our history.“”
C@t
Earlwood may well be a persecutor, but a (then) persecutor (now district court judge) once told me that with gentle handling witnesses will happily answer the first seven of ten questions, then if they are feeling comfortable they’ll mistakenly answer the eighth…
a r says:
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 12:25 pm
frednk @ #2061 Sunday, January 1st, 2023 – 11:01 am
The Labor party has traditionally been the party of Labor. As we don’t have a working poor in Australia; why do you consider those without a job a particular problem for Labor?
The Coalition treats the jobless with unmasked contempt. If Labor does no better, who will?
So perhaps a few arguments as to why they should ( just as the Liberal should), instead of claiming they must.
The Mundine/Price argument essentially is you can’t have both, a Voice to Parliament + direct support on the ground. Rubbish argument.
The Albanese Govt position of you can’t progress the treaty process until you have a VtP is lame as well.
Of course you can do all of the above, if you REALLY want to.
frednk @ #2061 Sunday, January 1st, 2023 – 12:01 pm
So modern Labor is still just a union based party.
That’s about as sustainable as the Libs being a Christian based party.
V.true Rex D.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 1:37 pm
….
So modern Labor is still just a union based party.
That’s about as sustainable as the Libs being a Christian based party.
Is all Labor a member of a union? I don’t think so.
I’d like to see socialist leftie Albo and his Govt buy back majority control of QANTAS.
Should never have been privatised.
Rex Douglas says:
So modern Labor is still just a union based party.
That’s about as sustainable as the Libs being a Christian based party.
________
Especially so, considering that the largest ALP affiliated union, the SDA consists of supermarket check out chicks, kids at Macdonalds and KFC, who have been diddled by their union for decades.
Doesn’t make a great advertisement for either unionism or the ALP.
According to PB Labor partisans you’d think so.
See new Tweets
Conversation
Political Alert
@political_alert
The Australian Government will introduce pre-departure testing for COVID-19 for people travelling to Australia from the People’s Republic of China including Hong Kong and Macau
@Mark_Butler_MP
From 12:01am on Thursday 5 January 2023, travellers will be required to undertake a COVID-19 test within the 48hrs prior to travel and show evidence of a negative test result when travelling to Australia #auspol
Rex I have to disagree re Qantas. Why would the government get into running an airline? Might as well get back into owning butcher shops.
‘Sceptic says:
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 12:42 pm
Such a lack of talent .. all in one spot at the same time
…..’
—————————
Too easy. And, IMO, wRONg.
Hill is the best environment minister Australia has ever had.
(If Plibersek achieves what she has said she would deliver she might outshine Hill.)
I also have considerable admiration for Angus Houston.
Cosgrove is no slouch, either.
nath @ #2091 Sunday, January 1st, 2023 – 1:57 pm
I believe essential services should be Govt owned for the people, not for private profit.
I consider air travel an essential service. Butcher shops are not.
The Government should shut down the air industry.
5% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. It would instantly turn 43/30 into 48/3o!
Most of the actual function is to enable the 5% of the world’s wealthiest people make themselves wealthier or to indulge themselves in various ways. Much of the rest is about adding miles to food miles.
I am sure that even the Greens could be shamed into supporting the Government on this.
Boerwar @ #2092 Sunday, January 1st, 2023 – 1:59 pm
Gawd, a conservative lovefest here…
Rex
Air travel is not a essential service and is well serviced by air carriers.
Rex Douglas says:
I consider air travel an essential service.
__________
I don’t see how. But I’m a core business kinda guy. Once child poverty and homelessness is at about 0% then we can see what else the government can do for people.
Has Houston found MH370 yet …?
Without fanfare.
I am glad about this. At the same time though it reminds me of my confused grief from so many years ago. The world is a better place today.
laughtong
Thanks. The positive person is ineligible for the anti-virals, unfortunately. Too young! Age discrimination?
Jacinta Price is a positive for the indigenous community because the biggest mistake in the 1990s was the lack of conservative indigenous leaders and that put Howard and many conservatives offside.