Supplementary elections, by-elections and no polls (open thread)

Minor electoral events from Victoria and Northern Territory in lieu of new polling news to report.

We continue to await the return of Newspoll for the year, which I imagine might be forthcoming ahead of the return of parliament next week. With Essential Research having an off week in the fortnightly cycle, this leaves me with nothing to report on the poll front. Two bits of electoral news worth noting are that the Liberals won the supplementary election for the Victorian state seat of Narracan as expected on Saturday, confirming lower house numbers of 56 for Labor, 19 for the Liberals, nine for the Nationals and four for the Greens; and that Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles has announced that the by-election for the seat of Arafura, following the death of Labor member Lawrence Costa on December 17, will be held on March 18. With that, over to you.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,405 comments on “Supplementary elections, by-elections and no polls (open thread)”

Comments Page 38 of 49
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  1. C@tmommasays:
    Friday, February 3, 2023 at 6:38 am
    Of course he did.

    Former deputy premier John Barilaro approached the chairman of ClubsNSW George Peponis and other industry leaders to back him in a bid to become the new boss of the embattled lobby group.

    Barilaro contacted Peponis and gaming industry figures this week in the aftermath of the bombshell sacking of chief executive Josh Landis, who linked Premier Dominic Perrottet’s Catholic faith to the cashless gaming crackdown.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/barilaro-sounded-out-prospects-to-become-new-boss-of-clubsnsw-20230202-p5chjj.html

    Now this is sickening.


  2. Confessionssays:
    Friday, February 3, 2023 at 6:46 am
    C@tmomma @ #1814 Friday, February 3rd, 2023 – 6:38 am

    Of course he did.

    Former deputy premier John Barilaro approached the chairman of ClubsNSW George Peponis and other industry leaders to back him in a bid to become the new boss of the embattled lobby group.

    Barilaro contacted Peponis and gaming industry figures this week in the aftermath of the bombshell sacking of chief executive Josh Landis, who linked Premier Dominic Perrottet’s Catholic faith to the cashless gaming crackdown.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/barilaro-sounded-out-prospects-to-become-new-boss-of-clubsnsw-20230202-p5chjj.html

    Is this guy STILL looking for a job?!

    People like him are unemployable in private sector or in public sector where a proper selection criteria is applied.


  3. Scepticsays:
    Friday, February 3, 2023 at 6:55 am
    There was a post yesterday where Scott Ritter had stated the Ukrainian army had initially fielded an army of 700,000 & would now struggle to field 200,000…. Today the Ukraine announced they have an army of 1 million & that Russian loss had reached 500/ dat in the Donbass

    Don’t wast your time with Scott

    Truth is the first casualty in a war. So don’t waste time listening to propaganda on both sides.
    One thing appears certain based on certain facts.
    A lot of Russian soldiers are killed and Ukraine infrastructure appears to be in ruins.

  4. Ven

    Truth is the first casualty in a war. So don’t waste time listening to propaganda on both sides.
    One thing appears certain based on certain facts.
    A lot of Russian soldiers are killed and Ukraine infrastructure appears to be in ruins.

    _______________________________________

    The other thing that is certain is that this was an unprovoked invasion where all the fighting and destruction has taken place on Ukrainian soil.


  5. Phil Coorey reckons up to $3 billion in promised power price relief for householders will be rebadged as a cost-of-living centrepiece in the May budget, after design complexities and disagreements pushed back the intended rollout date beyond April.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/budget-to-contain-3b-of-rebadged-power-price-relief-20230202-p5chb2

    Coorey never used this kind of language (a language of a sceptic) while describing any of LNP schemes in last 9 years. For example, the the asset write-off tax bribe to Tradies has been described as Tax relief for struggling Tradesmen.

  6. #WestheronPB. Today feels different. It’s as warm as recent days. So what’s changed? The humidity is way down, below 50%. Forgot that was even possible.

  7. The actions of John Barilaro to restrict emergency grants to bushfire victims to only those living in LNP electorates were absolutely despicable. Talk about kicking people when they are down! There was a similar pattern with Federal relief funds going only to flood victims in LNP electorates in northern NSW in early 2022, was there not? The ALP certainly pisses me off from time to time, but the consistent contempt the LNP shows for Australians who aren’t part of their tribe ensures they will always be last on my ballot paper.

  8. Snappy Tom @ #1650 Friday, February 3rd, 2023 – 8:10 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Friday, February 3, 2023 at 7:51 am

    aaron newton,
    Tolls are the sleeper issue of the NSW state election, to be sure. Labor has been campaigning hard in Western Sydney about it.

    But what do the Liberals do in response? Announce another bleeding sports stadium! Who can afford tickets to their favourite sports when you are spending your money on tolls!?!
    ____________

    Which stadium/white elephant did they announce?

    I was thinking about this:

    Stuart Ayres (@stuartayresmp) / Twitterhttps://twitter.com › stuartayresmp
    Great to be at the home of the Penrith Panthers announcing $28 million in WestInvest funding. ✓ $7m to transform a former landfill site into new sporting …

  9. TPOF @ #1658 Friday, February 3rd, 2023 – 8:27 am

    Ven

    Truth is the first casualty in a war. So don’t waste time listening to propaganda on both sides.
    One thing appears certain based on certain facts.
    A lot of Russian soldiers are killed and Ukraine infrastructure appears to be in ruins.

    _______________________________________

    The other thing that is certain is that this was an unprovoked invasion where all the fighting and destruction has taken place on Ukrainian soil.

    And I just read that Lavrov has started threatening Moldova on behalf of Putrid Putin:

    Russia’s top diplomat said the actions of Western nations could soon turn Moldova into the “next Ukraine,” according to TASS.

    Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Moldovan President Maia Sandu of being “eager to join NATO.” Sandu, Lavrov said, is “ready to unite with Romania and in fact, to do almost anything.”

    Romania is a member of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which was created to provide collective security against Russia.

    Lavrov’s comments appeared to echo complaints Russian President Vladimir Putin made about Ukraine and NATO when announcing Russia’s invasion into Ukraine last year. Putin cited the expansion of the alliance and Ukraine’s interest in joining NATO as “fundamental threats” against Russia in his speech justifying invasion.

    “Further expansion of the NATO infrastructure… are unacceptable for us,” Putin said at the time.

    Lavrov’s comments come as western officials warn that Russia may be gearing up for a new offensive nearly one year into the war in Ukraine. It’s not the first time tensions have flared over whether Russia might be eyeing Moldova as an extension of the conflict in Ukraine.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/top-russian-diplomat-sergei-lavrov-threatens-moldova-is-the-next-ukraine

    They are monsters. 😡

  10. Having finally paid off all my HECS I’m not keen to add to it. But if I had my time over again, I wish I’d done a Liberal Arts degree for my first one.

    Anyway I discovered long form podcasts during the lockdowns and started to fill my brain with stuff other than science and business.

    One I’ve listened to twice now is the History of Liberalism, which travels through the big thinkers on political theory between the 14th and 19th centuries. At only 20 episodes long its very digestibile.

    Main site
    https://historyofliberalism.wordpress.com?theme=light&utm_source=a_share

    Castbox’s link (the pod app I use)
    https://castbox.fm/va/120212


  11. Covering the Pell funeral, Jordan baker writes, “Those whose lives were destroyed by abusive priests, and who hold Pell responsible for the church’s failure to act, may have hoped Pell’s influence and his strident brand of Catholicism would die with him. But if Abbott has anything to do with it, the cardinal’s influence will live on as a symbol of Catholic defiance. The era of Pell the man is over, but that of Pell the martyr may be just beginning.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/as-pell-the-man-is-laid-to-rest-pell-the-martyr-rises-20230202-p5chi2.html

    Jordan Baker seems to say that for good people ” Heads I lose and Tails you win”

  12. zoomstersays:
    Friday, February 3, 2023 at 8:44 am
    We’re looking at a top of 16 degrees today.
    _____________________
    Good detecting weather. No EMI
    Hope it sticks around for the weekend.

  13. Before ‘Western Civilisation’ became a burming red flag for racism, was there ever a time it stood for something other than the racism of colonialism?


  14. The Australian’s editorial begins with, “As a reflection of the cowardice that tends to afflict members of our political class, it would be hard to go past the non-appearance of Anthony Albanese, Dominic Perrottet and other political figures at George Pell’s funeral in Sydney on Thursday. Given their offices, both men should have been there.”
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/editorials/leaders-lacked-courage-on-pell/news-story/98e465d3b0735967d02f276faf3139e1?amp

    So Murdoch Press is saying that you cannot have separation of Church from State in any instance.
    I thought we are living in a ‘Secular’ country and not in a Theocracy.

    But the irony of Murdoch Press is that WSJ criticises Indian government because it thinks the government mixes religion with politics and hence want regime change in India.


  15. Meanwhile, a group of Victorian councillors has written to the state government calling for guidelines to end Christian prayers in local council meetings. Wendy Touhy tells us that the letter, sent on Tuesday and signed by 21 councillors from across the state, argues widespread use of a single faith’s prayers at the start of meetings is “inconsistent with the multicultural and multi-faith diversity of the communities the council represents”.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/councillors-push-for-end-to-inappropriate-christian-prayers-at-meetings-20230202-p5chf5.html

    I don’t want Christian prayers to end but prayers from Geeta, Quran, Jewish, Buddhist and Sikh religious scriptures to be included.

  16. Having finally paid off all my HECS I’m not keen to add to it. But if I had my time over again, I wish I’d done a Liberal Arts degree for my first one.

    Ha. Yes indeed. The only reason I didnt finish my second degree (Development Studies and Politics) was because I couldnt afford it. The only reason I started posting on here more regularly was because I couldnt finish that degree (I started positing on here to improve the speed of my essay writing).


  17. Covering the robodebt royal commission, Luke Henriques-Gomes writes that Christian Porter has insisted someone in one of the two government departments responsible for the robodebt scheme assured him it was legal, while telling a royal commission he did accept some responsibility for the scandal. (Underneath all of what we have seen so far is the essentially unanswered question of what drove these people to do what they did and did not do).
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/02/christian-porter-tells-inquiry-someone-in-department-assured-him-robodebt-was-legal-but-i-cant-recall-who

    What drove them?
    Idealogy to shaft and mentally torture poor people who they consider to be ALP voters.
    For example, if you are a LNP staffer and get debt notice by mistake it is written off or cancelled.

  18. UK Defense Minister Ben Wallace has confirmed Marles’ comments that the AUKUS sub build will be a “trilateral partnership”. Since the UK is not involved in the potential US sub choices, Virginia or SSNX, this all but guarantees the RAN will build the following UK SSNR class with a US combat system.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/aukus-submarines-likely-to-be-tri-nation-project-uk-defence-secretary-20230202-p5chbk.html

    Hopefully in the not too distant future Albo can negotiate a fair price with Keir Starmer 🙂

  19. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, February 3, 2023 at 8:32 am

    Snappy Tom @ #1650 Friday, February 3rd, 2023 – 8:10 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Friday, February 3, 2023 at 7:51 am

    aaron newton,
    Tolls are the sleeper issue of the NSW state election, to be sure. Labor has been campaigning hard in Western Sydney about it.

    But what do the Liberals do in response? Announce another bleeding sports stadium! Who can afford tickets to their favourite sports when you are spending your money on tolls!?!
    ____________

    Which stadium/white elephant did they announce?

    I was thinking about this:

    Stuart Ayres (@stuartayresmp) / Twitterhttps://twitter.com › stuartayresmp
    Great to be at the home of the Penrith Panthers announcing $28 million in WestInvest funding. ✓ $7m to transform a former landfill site into new sporting …
    ____________

    Another ‘shovel-ready’ project?

    Here’s my rant: Sydney has the worst approach to sports venue planning in the nation.

    Case in point: the SCG/SFS Trust, for a significant period of time, wanted the 42,000 seat Football Stadium replaced with a 55,000 seat venue. Why such a large capacity? Wouldn’t be an attempt to take fixtures like rugby union tests away from the Olympic stadium, would it?

    Problem 1: Sydney’s culture is based on competition, so let’s try and have two venues way bigger than any football event other than the rare ones: grand finals, state of origin, rugby union tests plus one or two others.

    Problem 2: For decades, Sydney sporting crowds have been ‘soft’ in their attendance patterns. To this day, rugby league attracts half the average crowd of an AFL game. When the first Sydney Football Stadium was designed in the 80s, it was pitched at a 40,000 capacity. This at a time when Melbourne had the 90,000 capacity MCG and 75,000 capacity VFL Park.

    Every other city in the country (except the sporting graveyard known as the Gold Coast) has major venues which are frequently more than half full, even for run-of-the-mill ‘club games’. Have a look at the crowd at Suncorp Stadium next time the Broncos host a lesser opponent – like, say the Bulldogs. The crowd will at least look half full – in a 52,000 seat venue! Not just Brisbane – rugby league centres like Townsville, Newcastle etc often at least half fill their venues. In the AFL world, only Western Sydney and Gold Coast struggle with attendances.

    Greater Sydney needs one or maybe two football-compatible stadia able to host large crowds. Instead it has three (Olympic [83,000 capacity], SCG [45,000+], SFS [45,000]) plus one ‘medium-sized’ (Parramatta [31,000]) and another medium on the way (Penrith).

    Melbourne, with clearly greater average crowds across many sports, has three modern, larger venues: MCG [100,000], Docklands [55,000] and the Rectangular Stadium [30,000].

    The other major cities have two larger venues.

    Sydney has a collection of under-utilised money-suckholes.

    Next rant: too many of Sydney’s venues are poorly located!!! (Whole other can of worms!!!)

    A recent missed opportunity was one architect firm’s proposal to build the new/replacement SFS above the railway tracks just south of Sydney’s Central Station…

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/12/bold-plan-to-build-new-sydney-stadium-suspended-above-central-station

    My preference would’ve been a 70,000 seat roofed venue replacing both the SFS and Olympic stadium. I did email the idea to the govt, with predictable results…

    Okay, I think I’m done with this particular rant…

  20. At my second crack at uni (the first in the 90s was very successfully conducted in the uni bar, not so successfully in the exams hall) I fell trap to John Howard’s HECS trap, where you traded in about $7,000 per annum for $14,000 but then had to pay the full amount back. Whilst I had summer fruit picking work and a casual semester job in a book store I couldn’t afford the cost of living (early 2000s).

    That one was a bitch to pay back.

  21. From The Guardian:

    “Dutton accuses PM of withholding voice detail for political gain”

    Oh dear….

    Dutton: I want more details about the Voice.
    Albo: I have given you all the details you have asked for…
    Dutton: Nah mate, I know that you are withholding voice details and you are doing so for political gains…
    Albo: What about you being in denial for political gains?


  22. Anthony Albanese’s electoral success and the quiet competence of Labor’s administration has not gone unnoticed by the commentariat and political analysts here in the UK. A sea change from the noisy and brash Morrison days, writes John Fitz from the Cardiff University.
    https://johnmenadue.com/lessons-for-uk-labour-from-australia/

    “the quiet competence of Labor’s administration”.
    That is what is bugging LNP and so-called MSM. That is reason they are behaving like silly buggers or a ‘cat on hot tin roof’

  23. Vensays:
    Friday, February 3, 2023 at 8:58 am


    Meanwhile, a group of Victorian councillors has written to the state government calling for guidelines to end Christian prayers in local council meetings. Wendy Touhy tells us that the letter, sent on Tuesday and signed by 21 councillors from across the state, argues widespread use of a single faith’s prayers at the start of meetings is “inconsistent with the multicultural and multi-faith diversity of the communities the council represents”.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/councillors-push-for-end-to-inappropriate-christian-prayers-at-meetings-20230202-p5chf5.html

    I don’t want Christian prayers to end but prayers from Geeta, Quran, Jewish, Buddhist and Sikh religious scriptures to be included.

    Why?

    There are many more religions, why just them?

    Why not replace prayers with a period of silent reflection where those present can reflect in whatever way is relevant to themselves.

  24. Barney in Cherating says:
    Friday, February 3, 2023 at 9:11 am

    Vensays:
    Friday, February 3, 2023 at 8:58 am


    Meanwhile, a group of Victorian councillors has written to the state government calling for guidelines to end Christian prayers in local council meetings. Wendy Touhy tells us that the letter, sent on Tuesday and signed by 21 councillors from across the state, argues widespread use of a single faith’s prayers at the start of meetings is “inconsistent with the multicultural and multi-faith diversity of the communities the council represents”.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/councillors-push-for-end-to-inappropriate-christian-prayers-at-meetings-20230202-p5chf5.html

    I don’t want Christian prayers to end but prayers from Geeta, Quran, Jewish, Buddhist and Sikh religious scriptures to be included.

    Why?

    There are many more religions, why just them?

    Why not replace prayers with a period of silent reflection where those present can reflect in whatever way is relevant to themselves.
    ____________

    +1

    Although, in America someone would probably take parliament to court for favouring one religion (Quakers, whose gatherings are mainly silent) over the others!

  25. Oh dear, Putin, a man in denial…

    “Stalingrad events see Putin warn of response to western ‘aggression’.
    Drawing parallels with second world war, Putin said: ‘A modern war with Russia will be completely different’”
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/stalingrad-events-see-putin-warn-of-response-to-western-aggression

    Vlad, you are the aggressor in Ukraine, you are the Nazi-equivalent, and you will be kicked out of Ukraine. Don’t worry about the safety of internationally acknowledged Russian borders. Nobody is interested in invading real Russia. Ukraine, however is NOT Russia!…. Get out of there, and stop uselessly sacrificing innocent young Russian lives and also Ukrainian lives.

  26. ‘I thought we are living in a ‘Secular’ country and not in a Theocracy.’

    You might need to have a chat with your King, Chuck III head of the Church of England about that.

  27. Vensays:
    Friday, February 3, 2023 at 9:03 am


    For example, if you are a LNP staffer and get debt notice by mistake it is written off or cancelled.

    Where is the evidence of this?

  28. Words I was not ready to hear:

    “The Mark Knight one is pretty funny”

    But lo and behold, it wasn’t entirely untrue.

  29. Snappy Tom

    Some bludgers from NSW have mentioned recently that the upgrades or renovations at the Allianz stadium was not money well spent.

  30. The government has been monitoring a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon that has been hovering over the northern U.S. for the past few days, and they have discussed shooting it out of the sky, according to two U.S. officials and a senior defense official.

    “The United States government has detected and is tracking a high-altitude surveillance balloon that is over the continental United States right now,” Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told NBC News. “We continue to track and monitor it closely.”

    “Once the balloon was detected, the U.S. government acted immediately to protect against the collection of sensitive information,” Ryder said.

    The high-altitude balloon was spotted over Billings, Montana, on Wednesday. It flew from the Aleutian Islands, through Canada, and into Montana. A senior defense official said the balloon is still over the U.S. but declined to say where it is now.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/02/suspected-chinese-spy-balloon-found-over-northern-us.html

  31. Q: I am looking forward to a post-Putin Russia that can enjoy peace and prosperity.

    Indeed. The ‘West’ has quite a respect if not admiration for Russia- its music, architecture and art is the height of human achievement, as are its successes in space, engineering, on the battlefields of WW2 and sport….I have travelled widely there and it is fascinating on so many levels.

    Putin confecting hatred is tragic for its people, and the world. It is sad the direction it has taken in the post Soviet Era.

  32. BinC

    Why not replace prayers with a period of silent reflection where those present can reflect in whatever way is relevant to themselves.

    _______________________________________

    Absolutely, or welcome to country.

    I don’t see what difference prayers make anyway. They all start acting like self-interested arseholes once proceedings start.

    As an aside, I am kind of surprised by the large number of affirmations by witnesses at the RC (politicians aside).

  33. Putin and his cronies believed that the west were going to respond to the invasion of Ukraine in the same way as they responded to crimea etc.
    Some sanctions and firm words against the invasion.
    It did not happen this time.

    Putin was shocked to experience a united Europe, USA and other allies.

    Putin can’t and won’t accept they are losing.

    As I mentioned recently, the propaganda unit on Russia Today have been ramping up the threat of nuclear warfare being the only option now.

  34. Q: You might need to have a chat with your King, Chuck III head of the Church of England about that.

    Yet another reason to ditch the monarchy….

  35. “Florida governor Ron DeSantis announced plans this week to block state colleges from having programs on diversity, equity and inclusion, and critical race theory in his latest attack on Black and LGBTQ+ people in the public education system.

    The second-term governor, who is widely expected to launch a 2024 White House bid in the late spring or early summer, previously blocked a new advanced placement course on African American studies from being taught in high schools, saying it violates state law, and championed a “don’t say gay” law prohibiting lessons about sexual orientation or gender identity in the state’s primary schools.”

    DeSantis vs Trump: A desperate race to the bottom for the GOP nomination…

    Trump: I am worse than you, I deserve the nomination.
    DeSantis: Not at all, I am far “worser”….

  36. “Q: I am looking forward to a post-Putin Russia that can enjoy peace and prosperity.”

    I too am looking forward to a post-Putin world and Russia, but Russia can not expect peace and prosperity, the form of capitalism imposed on it / implemented by it created the oligarchs and Putin, watching the self destruction of the UK highlights the innate contradictions of a once great empire in fast decline, and while Russia’s ‘great’ empire is both more recent and more complicated than the UK’s ‘let’s go everywhere, steal everything and it doesn’t matter how many we kill’ it is surely in decline.

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