We continue to await the return of Newspoll for the year, which I imagine might be forthcoming ahead of the return of parliament next week. With Essential Research having an off week in the fortnightly cycle, this leaves me with nothing to report on the poll front. Two bits of electoral news worth noting are that the Liberals won the supplementary election for the Victorian state seat of Narracan as expected on Saturday, confirming lower house numbers of 56 for Labor, 19 for the Liberals, nine for the Nationals and four for the Greens; and that Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles has announced that the by-election for the seat of Arafura, following the death of Labor member Lawrence Costa on December 17, will be held on March 18. With that, over to you.
Barney in Cherating says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 9:17 am
Vensays:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 9:03 am
…
For example, if you are a LNP staffer and get debt notice by mistake it is written off or cancelled.
Where is the evidence of this?
________________________________
Rachelle Miller gave evidence at the RC about how she was approached by a junior staffer in another Minister’s office about a robodebt debt notice that was wrong. She said she got the Departmental Liaison Officer to get someone in DHS to sort it out with the staffer.
Her point was that this was when she started to realise that maybe robodebt was not the good thing she thought it was.
To be fair to the staffer, I am sure this would happen in any political party. Indeed, people who have enough nous to engage an MPs office often get a fast-tracked resolution of a bad governmental decision.
The most questionable thing was the inappropriate use of the DLO, albeit only as a conduit.
UK Cartoons:
Peter Brookes on Shell’s record-breaking profits
Ben Jennings on Shell’s record-breaking profits
Matt on #BirdFlu
Dave Brown on #RishiSunak #GroundhogDay #TorySleaze #ToryCorruption #ToriesUnfitToGovern #GeneralElectionNow #RishiSunk
Andy Davey: Phew, good job these guys are in control of things #InterestRate #RishiSunak #RishiSunk
Christian Adams on #RishiSunak #Strikes #GroundhogDay #GroundhogDay2023 #RishiSunk
“Desantis is opening up a huge lead in the polling over Trump for 2024.
Frankly neither of them will be there in 2024.”
Do you think Biden will be?
Barney in Cherating @ #1804 Friday, February 3rd, 2023 – 9:17 am
Sworn evidence at the Royal Commission. Names, dates, the lot.
Victoria says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 9:23 am
Putin and his cronies believed that the west were going to respond to the invasion of Ukraine in the same way as they responded to crimea etc.
Some sanctions and firm words against the invasion.
It did not happen this time.
____________________________
He expected the invasion and decapitation of the Ukrainian government to be over quickly and thus a fait accompli. His biggest miscalculations were not the expectations of western responses but the incompetence of his own army and the fervent defence by Ukrainian civilians and military.
Looking at the debates in the west about how much military assistance to give Ukraine and in what form, it is clear that nobody would have taken military action against Russia if it had met its original objectives in the time frame it planned.
TPOFsays:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 9:28 am
Yep, this person had kept all their records which demonstrated that they had no debt.
In her evidence Miller said the DLO had been helping people who called the office.
The main difference with the staffer is that they were able to have things sorted out much more quickly and easily than other letter recipients.
The Lord’s Prayer was a feature of the opening of our local Show Committee meetings and was a major reason I usually didn’t attend and just ran my cattle section in absentia. It was a smallish rural town, the president was a practicing Catholic and a lovely bloke, but it was totally inappropriate to impose a prayer of any type on the meetings.
However the True Tone of things was encapsulated by the bit at the bottom of the meeting notices… “Ladies, please bring a plate”. ‘Nuff said!
“Looking at the debates in the west about how much military assistance to give Ukraine and in what form, it is clear that nobody would have taken military action against Russia if it had met its original objectives in the time frame it planned.”
I think that is fair, also the fact people who barely noticed Crimea but have become radicalised Ukrainian fans this time, while some of it is no doubt down to state propaganda of the US and to a lesser extent Australia, I.think a lot of it was earned by Ukrainian voices particularly early on.
I have have a prerelease game.being created by Ukrainian developers who give updates, I listened to podcasts/ interviews with Ukrainians on the ground after the invasion. It was very impressive and interesting stuff. More importantly it was very relatable.
It is why it is so important to keep the victims of crimes against humanity (refugees, Palestine etc) unknown and largely unrelatable.
WeWantPaul says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 9:16 am
‘I thought we are living in a ‘Secular’ country and not in a Theocracy.’
You might need to have a chat with your King, Chuck III head of the Church of England about that.
____________
You’re fooling yourself! We live in a dictatorship: a self-perpetuating autocracy…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8bqQ-C1PSE
TPOF
Without the support of the west, Ukraine would ultimately fail. This is despite the Russians being incompetent.
WWP
Yes at this stage I do expect Biden to be there.
“You’re fooling yourself! We live in a dictatorship: a self-perpetuating autocracy…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8bqQ-C1PSE”
When is it my turn to act as sort of executive for a week!
“WWP
Yes at this stage I do expect Biden to be there.”
I think you are probably right, but I don’t think it is certain.
WWP
Of course. Nothing is certain.
From The Guardian blog:
“New South Wales opposition leader, Chris Minns, will give former deputy premier, John Barilaro, 24 hours to explain why his office meddled in a $100m bushfire recovery grants scheme, before referring him to the corruption watchdog.
Minns told 2GB the former Nationals leader needed to explain why his office created new rules for the black summer scheme that saw Labor electorates miss out entirely.
He said:
If we don’t get answers today, and I mean in the next 24 hours, I do believe it needs to be referred to the Icac to determine what happened here.
It’s a basic fact of Australian life that if you’re in a disaster zone, and you need help from your own government, it will come – it doesn’t matter which party you voted for at the last election.
A report from the state’s Auditor General found the Bushfire Local Economic Recovery program lacked transparency and Barilaro’s office had made decisions beyond its remit.”
Such fun!
Jordan Shanks has gone radio silent since his house got bombed.
One of his biggest enemies was John Barilaro.
Not suggesting that one has to do with the other. Lol
Victoria says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 9:49 am
TPOF
Without the support of the west, Ukraine would ultimately fail. This is despite the Russians being incompetent.
_____________________________
Not arguing that Victoria. I’m rarely into alternative histories, but I do like to look to the past to inform the present. Two things come out of that. First, if Putin had achieved his objectives within a month the west would have imposed relatively heavy sanctions, but would have not gone further. Secondly, if Putin had achieved those objectives he would have gone further – at least to the extent of the old Soviet Union.
”
Cronussays:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 7:25 am
Oliver Sutton says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 7:13 am
The haughty Lord Downer has taken a swipe at Penny Wong.
Yes, Downer, the East Timor bugger.*
(* as in ‘one who bugs’: but you already knew that, right?)
——————————————————————————————
Sounds exactly like this bugger:
“The then deputy secretary in foreign affairs and trade said there was no need for an official history on East Timor because it was not the job of the people to know these things and that I was not to ‘speak to the minister [for foreign affairs Alexander Downer] about it’.”
https://www.themandarin.com.au/210195-government-accused-of-silencing-australias-official-war-history-on-east-timor/
”
No wonder Federal Public Sector boffins think they need to serve and protect LNP politicians after John Howard came to power. It is because of following reasons.
1. The night of long knives Soon after Howard gained power when number of FPS senior bureaucrats were sacked and then stacked with idealogical boffins.
2. LNP was in power for 20 out of last 26 years. So bureaucrats think ‘why bother ‘.
3. A lot of bureaucrats are on fat contracts rather than permanent employment
4. A lot of PS work was given outside consultants.
5. Our Senior bureaucrats became ‘Fat cats’
Hence they became HMV .
“WeWantPaul says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 9:29 am
“Desantis is opening up a huge lead in the polling over Trump for 2024.
Frankly neither of them will be there in 2024.”
Do you think Biden will be?”
That reminds me that once I invited a well-known scientist to come to a conference I was co-organising. At the time he was 79 years old. He looked at me and said: I don’t know, I may not be alive by then. He eventually came and all went well… I realised that, eventually, he did pass away, last year, at the age of 91!
Never ever misunderestimate the capacity of anybody to stay alive…
”
Cronussays:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 7:35 am
Hi C@T
I’ve noticed that Chalmers has been given a real walloping by the AFR and The Australian. After decades the Coalition and their media shills continue to support the clearly failed neo-liberal economic strategies despite unambiguous evidence of increasing inequality.
I think their greatest concern must be that Chalmers is, by definition, calling out this failed strategy and its champions for what they are. Time for a new direction that redresses the imbalance. The logic of continuing along the same old economic road is indefensible.
”
Cronus
Albert Einstein said that doing the same thing and expecting a different result is the definition of lunacy.
But I think LNP and its Media and Industry allies wanted exactly the same result we have now. I think they are spectacularly successful in their objectives.
Barilaro sounded out prospects to become new boss of ClubsNSW
Former deputy premier John Barilaro approached the chairman of ClubsNSW George Peponis and other industry leaders to back him in a bid to become the new boss of the embattled lobby group.
Fantastic news.. John is eminently qualified for the position.. being a corrupt grafter after all..
Explain bushfire grants or I’ll refer your office to ICAC, Minns tells Barilaro
”
Barney in Cheratingsays:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 9:11 am
Vensays:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 8:58 am
”
Meanwhile, a group of Victorian councillors has written to the state government calling for guidelines to end Christian prayers in local council meetings. Wendy Touhy tells us that the letter, sent on Tuesday and signed by 21 councillors from across the state, argues widespread use of a single faith’s prayers at the start of meetings is “inconsistent with the multicultural and multi-faith diversity of the communities the council represents”.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/councillors-push-for-end-to-inappropriate-christian-prayers-at-meetings-20230202-p5chf5.html
”
I don’t want Christian prayers to end but prayers from Geeta, Quran, Jewish, Buddhist and Sikh religious scriptures to be included.
Why?
There are many more religions, why just them?
Why not replace prayers with a period of silent reflection where those present can reflect in whatever way is relevant to themselves.
”
Why?
1. They would realise nothing special about Christian prayers when compared to other religions prayers.
2. After spending time on prayers than work at the start of each session, everyone may say enough is enough.
“Never ever misunderestimate the capacity of anybody to stay alive…”
Indeed, and after the Nov elections I would have said bar death or very serious illnee Biden would run, now he has to manage the document thing.
I half suspect the idiot republicans and their Hunter stuff might well buttress his position.
”
Barney in Cheratingsays:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 9:17 am
Vensays:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 9:03 am
…
For example, if you are a LNP staffer and get debt notice by mistake it is written off or cancelled.
Where is the evidence of this?
”
Didn’t you listen to Rachel Miller deposition and/ or evidence?
This morning I heard an interview by Rod Quin on ABC ‘Overnights’ with Prof. Erica Charters , a historian , discussing war, disease , epidemics , etc. Fascinating.
This is one of her articles on Covid :
https://www.theguardian.com/profile/erica-charters
Thanks for the roundup, BK.
The older you are, the longer you live – is statistically proven.
https://news.stanford.edu/2018/11/06/lifespan-increasing-people-live-65/
Thanks Dr Doolittle re the recently published East Timor history.
A worthwhile short interview with Craig Stocking (Official Historian), the clearly thorough book will no doubt be concerning to some politicians of the time (Downer I’m looking at you) and an eye opener for the Australian electorate today as to the fact that the narrative sold publicly at the time differed significantly from the facts, surprise. Stocking notes too that the scale of geo-strategic risk to Australian from a potential loss in East Timor was the greatest at any time (up until now) of any operation since 1945.
An interesting couple of interview quotes from Stocking:
“There was coordinated violence orchestrated by Indonesia and it’s something that some people don’t want to hear. It’s not new information, you could google the UN website and pull up the same reports we saw that make it abundantly clear …….. the Indonesians conducted a number of their own trials including of serving officers making this clear. Jakarta signed a document at a truth and reconciliation committee with Dili that points this out in granular detail. None of this is new, if there’s discomfort it’s the fact that it’s being presented to the Australian public as a bit of a corrective ….”
“The very large ADF deployment to East Timor was the precise opposite of what government policy was trying to achieve throughout the period which was to keep East Timor as part of Indonesia………..Australia tried not to be involved in East Timor and this is just historical truth. What we had was a divergence between government policy and public wishes.”
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2023/feb/02/mark-e-smith-fall-members-house-of-all-martin-bramah
‘It’s a homage to what Mark E Smith taught us’: ex-Fall members House of All deny exploiting band’s legacy
This youtube comment on the band is hilarious..
“The Fall aren’t so much a band, more a well-intentioned 1970’s Manchester Council unemployment initiative that has snowballed out of control.”
“sprocket_says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 10:30 am
The older you are, the longer you live – is statistically proven.”
The two greatest hurdles of old age are the 60s (when many diseases with a strong genetic base may manifest themselves)… and then the 70s (when the body is suffering the ravages of old age). If you get into the 8os, cheer up, as you may make it up to the 90s and, for some people, beyond.
The issue, of course, is to reach old ages in decent body and mental conditions and still with a strong will to live and do things.
Anyway…. Good luck, everybody!
Ven says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 8:53 am
”
The Australian’s editorial begins with, “As a reflection of the cowardice that tends to afflict members of our political class, it would be hard to go past the non-appearance of Anthony Albanese, Dominic Perrottet and other political figures at George Pell’s funeral in Sydney on Thursday. Given their offices, both men should have been there.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/editorials/leaders-lacked-courage-on-pell/news-story/98e465d3b0735967d02f276faf3139e1?amp
——————————————————————————————
And since when is standing against the protection of paedophiles and their movement around the country cowardice? Sounds like the only appropriate display of accepted majority values to me. The majority rightly will never eulogise such abhorrent behaviour. The longer the Coalition more broadly and the Murdochracy continue to highlight and support this behaviour, the quicker public support for them will diminish.
Who here thinks it is right to demand that Ukraine, or Moldova, or any other independent country, run all their foreign policy decisions past Moscow for approval? That is what the Kremlin is demanding of those countries, and has been for the past 23 years. And the penalty Moscow exacts from those countries for resisting that demand? Catastrophic, genocidal invasion. With mass killing, torture, rape, destruction and looting. Anyone who thinks Moscow has even the slightest just cause in this invasion has a seriously screwed up moral compass.
According to the Party Room podcast Senator Lidia Thorpe isn’t at/didnt attend the Greens retreat to decide their position on the Voice referendum.
So how does that work if they don’t have their FN spokesperson in the room to decide such an important FN matter?
At around 22 minutes:
https://castbox.fm/vb/567724836
”
WeWantPaulsays:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 9:40 am
“Looking at the debates in the west about how much military assistance to give Ukraine and in what form, it is clear that nobody would have taken military action against Russia if it had met its original objectives in the time frame it planned.”
I think that is fair, also the fact people who barely noticed Crimea but have become radicalised Ukrainian fans this time, while some of it is no doubt down to state propaganda of the US and to a lesser extent Australia, I.think a lot of it was earned by Ukrainian voices particularly early on.
I have have a prerelease game.being created by Ukrainian developers who give updates, I listened to podcasts/ interviews with Ukrainians on the ground after the invasion. It was very impressive and interesting stuff. More importantly it was very relatable.
It is why it is so important to keep the victims of crimes against humanity (refugees, Palestine etc) unknown and largely unrelatable.
”
On the topic of relatable/ unrelatable, a prime US Example.
For Vietnam war, US soldiers were conscripted from all over the country. The effect of that was that there was atleast one soldier from every village, town and city of USA in Vietnam war and there was death or other war casualty from every village, town and city of USA. So the losses were deeply felt through out the country and the opposition to the war increased as days went by. Also, the media which had people like Walter Cronkite, covered the war extensively and objectively. Hence, total revulsion to the war and USA at the end of the war.
2. But when it came to Iraq war 2, there was no conscription and hence not everyone in USA was effected. The body bags were brought back quietly and the media was embedded with war machine. Also, there was a new phenomenon called Fox News and it’s commentators, which was not objective. BTW, by the time people realised the damage the Iraq war 2 has done it was way too late for USA and middle east
Added to that USA started GFC
From then on, it is all downhill for USA. The rest as they say is history.
The Australian’s editorial begins with, “As a reflection of the cowardice that tends to afflict members of our political class, it would be hard to go past the non-appearance of Anthony Albanese, Dominic Perrottet and other political figures at George Pell’s funeral in Sydney on Thursday. Given their offices, both men should have been there.”
________________________________________
Actually, I think it took political courage, not cowardice, to stay away.
At last some sensible analysis and comment on Ukraine. Thanks Victoria, TPOF and Paul.
Ven says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 9:03 am
”
Covering the robodebt royal commission, Luke Henriques-Gomes writes that Christian Porter has insisted someone in one of the two government departments responsible for the robodebt scheme assured him it was legal, while telling a royal commission he did accept some responsibility for the scandal. (Underneath all of what we have seen so far is the essentially unanswered question of what drove these people to do what they did and did not do).
——————————————————————————————
Porter doesn’t know who assured him it was legal and did nothing to confirm this legality. Incredible lack of curiosity for a supposed sharp legal mind. Certainly not what would be expected of a federal Attorney General.
“Leon says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 10:48 am
At last some sensible analysis and comment on Ukraine. Thanks Victoria, TPOF and Paul.”
Leon, never forget that defining “sensible analysis” as: “Whatever confirms my own prejudices”, is not really smart. A signature of sensible analysis is also the capacity to prove you wrong and allow you to change your mind.
Perhaps in the end the Liberal incompetence will save us money as we will realize, we don’t need several billion dollars of submarines before we order them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJT8CNfd8NE&ab_channel=RICHUS
“TPOF says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 10:47 am
The Australian’s editorial begins with, “As a reflection of the cowardice that tends to afflict members of our political class, it would be hard to go past the non-appearance of Anthony Albanese, Dominic Perrottet and other political figures at George Pell’s funeral in Sydney on Thursday. Given their offices, both men should have been there.””
Is The Australian calling Perrottet a “coward” right on the verge of the NSW state election?
Great, I love it!!
________________________________________
Actually, I think it took political courage, not cowardice, to stay away.
TPOFsays:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 9:57 am
Victoria says:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 9:49 am
TPOF
Without the support of the west, Ukraine would ultimately fail. This is despite the Russians being incompetent.
_____________________________
Not arguing that Victoria. I’m rarely into alternative histories, but I do like to look to the past to inform the present. Two things come out of that. First, if Putin had achieved his objectives within a month the west would have imposed relatively heavy sanctions, but would have not gone further. Secondly, if Putin had achieved those objectives he would have gone further – at least to the extent of the old Soviet Union.
==========================
TPOF & Victoria, you are both absolutely right in your observations here. And I’ll add a third: if the US, UK and Russia has taken their 1994 Budapest Memorandum security guarantees to Ukraine seriously, this war wouldn’t have happened at all. It is outrageous that those three countries effectively stole from Ukraine the very sort of deterrent that Russia now uses as a shield against punishment for their current aggression against Ukraine. The US and UK have a deep moral obligation to guarantee Ukrainian safety, sovereignty and territorial integrity. And Russia should be made to pay a very steep price for its treacherous bastardry.
Cronus
Commissioner Holmes asked Porter that very question.
how come he didn’t look at it from a lawyers perspective?
He fudged the answer, saying that he thought it was an administrative issue, not a legal one.
I thought lawyers looked at everything from a legal perspective.
sprocket_ @ #1927 Friday, February 3rd, 2023 – 10:30 am
Actually, the article says precisely the opposite, for those who make it to 65. Each generation lives an average of three years longer than its parent generation, provided that an individual attains 65 years. Thus the younger sets live longer.
NSW Labor leader Chris Minns says he will give John Barilaro 24 hours to stump up and answer questions about why his office intervened in a $100 million bushfire recovery program, or he will refer the matter to the corruption watchdog.
The ultimatum follows a scathing investigation by the NSW Auditor-General into the Bushfire Local Economic Recovery program released on Thursday, which found a lack of transparency in funding projects, as well as Barilaro’s office making decisions outside its remit.
Former NSW Supreme Court judge Anthony Whealy, KC, backed the call for a corruption probe and said the Independent Commission Against Corruption need not wait for a referral.
“If it was a deliberate decision made for political gain it would easily fall within the definition of corrupt conduct in the ICAC legislation. Therefore, it should be referred and considered by ICAC,” he told the Herald. “I say, prima facie, the auditor-general report reveals sufficient evidence to warrant an initial investigation by ICAC into the matter.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/explain-bushfire-grants-or-i-ll-refer-your-office-to-icac-minns-tells-barilaro-20230203-p5chn1.html
“Added to that USA started GFC
From then on, it is all downhill for USA. The rest as they say is history.”
Perhaps I’m returning to my centrist roots (I’m not) but I’ve really enjoyed both ‘The Rest is History’ and the ‘Rest is Politics’ podcasts.
Not as much as American Prestige!
https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/01/31/supplementary-elections-by-elections-and-no-polls-open-thread/comment-page-39/#comment-4056341
Hmm. If you want to talk about someone would they be invited? Or. If they didn’t attend would you end up talking about them? If true it bodes poorly for the senator.
Vensays:
Friday, February 3, 2023 at 10:24 am
Yes, see my previous response.
“I thought lawyers looked at everything from a legal perspective.”
I summarily reject the implication of this assertion at this point of time and henceforth.
WWP, TPOF, Victoria:
Another thought on why this current Russian effort to carve off some of its neighbours has gone so very differently for them than Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 is the very spirited and determined military resistance Ukraine under President Zelenskyy put up in late February and throughout March, before any real Western military assistance was able to arrive (or in many cases even decided to be sent). And this is largely due to Ukrainian efforts to weed out corruption in their military and across their associated supply industries. In 2014, Ukraine ceded Crimea without any resistance predominantly because Russia had bought off enough figures in Ukraine’s political, military and industrial spheres to ensure capitulation. This happened to a much lesser degree last year. (Question marks still linger over the Russian capture of Kherson, which I’m sure Kyiv will vigorously purse once the war is over.)
It is no surprise that, with the initial shock of the invasion last year and the subsequent exhilaration of Ukraine’s counteroffensives last autumn now passed, a great deal of local Ukrainian attention has switched to their war on corruption. I know the US, NATO and EU are requiring Ukraine to take this problem seriously, but there has been considerable local enthusiasm for this effort ever since Putin’s puppet Yanukovich was ousted in the 2014 Revolution of Dignity.
For those setting up for the Robodebt RC today, here is something to think about for the next block of hearings when the Ombudsman’s Office will be examined.
The role of the Ombudsman is to actually inquire into all aspects of the administrative issue it is examining. Yet it did not take independent investigation into the legal underpinning of the whole scheme. We have heard other evidence which appears to amount to the OO actually being suborned into the DHS/DSS groupthink, to the point of adopting DHS text as part of its report, but because we have not heard from them I am curious to know why they failed their duty.
And I am strongly of the view that they, along with so many others involved, failed their duty. I sort of understand why – fear, self-promotion, lack of attention, etc. But the Ombudsman exists to robustly examine allegations of maladministration. It’s why they are there. They failed their central duty it seems to me. And I cannot see why. Certainly they were overworked, but so was everyone. That will, I think be the most interesting evidence in the fourth block.