The Australian reports the first Newspoll for the year has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 55-45, from primary votes of Labor 38% (down one), Coalition 34% (down one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). Anthony Albanese is down five on approval to 57% and up four on disapproval to 33%, while Peter Dutton is steady at 36% and up one to 46%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 59-24 to 56-26.
There were further questions on the Indigenous voice to parliament, which found 56% in support (28% strongly and 28% partly) and 37% opposed (23% strongly and 14% partly). Extensive further detail on why respondents felt the way the did. The most favoured among listed of reasons for those opposed was that “it won’t help the issues facing Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians”. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1512.
Every single State, Territory and Federal Government, from Labor, Liberal and political coalition parties are supporting the Voice as we have previously heard. What a strong show of support in this photo from this article in the National Indigenous Times.
https://nit.com.au/03-02-2023/4887/every-premier-and-chief-minister-in-australia-unite-to-back-indigenous-voice-to-parliament
Griff @ #93 Monday, February 6th, 2023 – 8:51 am
I wonder if any Bludgers might remember a lively discussion we had here quite a few years ago, when the ABS under David Kalisch decided that “Big Data” was the way of the future. Some of us tried to point out the horrors that would inevitably ensue. Well, here we are …
I just googled David Kalisch expecting I might find he works for one of the departments involved in RoboDebt – it is certainly his love child.
But disturbingly, the truth is even more frightening – it appears he now works for the Electoral Commission in the ACT …
https://the-riotact.com/former-abs-head-appointed-as-electoral-commission-chairperson/493965
“Player Ones says:
Monday, February 6, 2023 at 8:56 am
If the Liberals do get exterminated in NSW, rather than just have to share power with the cross bench, then I wonder if we might see a truly unique phenomenon in Australia – a “race back to the middle” where both major parties decide to lurch to the left, to actually represent the electorate?
Wouldn’t that be one for the history books?”
Hey, Pooh1, you should read the “history books” that have been published already: the Liberal party is already split. Their “lurch to the left” is called the Teals. What’s left in the Liberal party is Dutton’s rabble that are hopelessly hard Neoliberal-Conservatives.
The Social Democratic evolution of the ALP has been speeding up since 2008. The Liberals, on the other hand, never got the memo and now they are fighting for survival against the ALP, Teals and even the Greens (have a chat with poor Trevor Evans, defeated LNP representative for the seat of Brisbane).
You and your “institute” are perfectly right to be scared to death about the future of the Liberal party. The problem is that they just don’t know where to go, and so a continuous and inevitable decline is expected. Who knows, if this goes on like that may be the Nationals will become the dominant members of the Coalition?…. Time will tell.
🙂
From the commentary, professional and otherwise, I am wondering how many actually read Chalmers’s essay. I did.
Most of the commentary is ignorant and distorted.
“This was big data meeting big government at its most heartless and impersonal. The human toll includes suicides linked to threatening letters demanding repayment of fictional debts amounting to tens of thousands of dollars.”
What utterly vacuous bullshit. The author of the text has taken a term that enough people don’t quite understand and blamed that nebulous thing, rather than looking at the true root cause.
It was not big data. It was incredibly thin data; it was incomplete data; it was imprecise data, it was overly smoothed data; there was not enough information in the data to make correct decisions; the data did not actually represent what its users claimed it to; the data was not fit for its intended purposes; and so on.
And it was what, one data point for each customer each year? I.e. not big.
It was the users of the data that did it.
This is an attempt at obfuscation, bootstrapped by the usual suspect.
timbo @ #98 Monday, February 6th, 2023 – 9:06 am
My view is they were just p0king the US to see what they would do. It’s a pretty innocuous piece of technology, and there’s plausible deniability in terms of it traveling the path it did, “we don’t control the wind”.
The use of a fighter plane and air-to-air missile to shoot it down over international waters was about the right response. Not a ‘do nothing’ outcome, and a very clear use of military hardware, ‘see, our missiles work’.
Player Onesays:
Monday, February 6, 2023 at 8:40 am
Torchbearer @ #82 Monday, February 6th, 2023 – 8:34 am
It is very well to say we have a democracy and Thorpe can vote how she likes, but those that put a number 1 in The Greens box on the senate form reasonably expected to be voting for greens policies.
I would expect you would find that most Green voters are more in touch with the Green policy platform than the voters of either major party are with their own.
And they don’t even have to go far to find out the details – as we see here on a daily basis, Labor Partisans are far more obsessed with the Green policies than they are with their own. Possibly with good reason – if you took away the party branding and the excess verbiage and just left in the policy mechanics, even Labor party members would be hard-pressed to separate many of their own key party policies from the Liberals.
_____________________
Ahh yep the old Greens trope that the Liberals and Labor are no different to each other. Bit difficult to run that line now that the Greens and Liberals are on unity ticket to undermine the Voice and secure a “No” vote. All about owning Labor at the end of the day, I suppose.
[‘The cost of the NSW government’s new fleet of Spanish-built passenger trains is set to blow out by more than $1 billion – doubling the bill for taxpayers – because the state’s transport bureaucracy botched the handling of the project, which is running three years late.
A highly confidential report by Infrastructure NSW, the government’s independent adviser, is scathing of Transport for NSW for inadequate planning, weak oversight and failing to heed warnings which have led to the project suffering a “significant cost and schedule blowout”.
“Poor scoping, cost overruns, schedule delays and unmitigated risks are key features of this project,” the report says. “It is expected that the costs to complete will easily exceed the existing budget by more than $1 billion.”
Creating a major headache for the government weeks out from the state election, a blowout in the cost of the 29 trains and infrastructure upgrades to almost $2.5 billion will double the bill, which had been estimated in last year’s budget at $1.26 billion.
The first of the new trains were meant to start running on key interstate lines from Sydney to Melbourne, Brisbane and Canberra, and across NSW last month. However, internal forecasts show it could be as late as December 2025.
“There is no way that the project can recoup the lost schedule or be delivered within budget,” the Infrastructure NSW report warns.’]
Very bad timing for Perrottet. And then there’s his icare baby, and a pic of his 21st may mysteriously appear from the ether.
Whoops:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/secret-report-reveals-1-billion-plus-cost-blowout-in-bungled-nsw-trains-project-20230203-p5chpo.html
“JenAuthor says:
Monday, February 6, 2023 at 9:17 am
From the commentary, professional and otherwise, I am wondering how many actually read Chalmers’s essay. I did.
Most of the commentary is ignorant and distorted.”
Well, of course I did too. I fully agree that you should never comment on something you are clueless about!… It’s definitely a very good habit.
🙂
Dandy Murray @ Monday, February 6, 2023 at 9:19 am
You speak truth 🙂
In discussing the Robodebt Royal Commission, I was asked how did they know it was 2000 suicides- I accepted what I’d read, but does anyone know the answer?
Its not the first time chinese weather balloons flew over US space.
—-
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattnovak/2023/02/04/yes-chinese-spy-balloons-flew-over-the-us-when-president-trump-was-in-office-too/?sh=276f91ba3ea3
The one thing that I note about the Chinese Weather Balloon, is that nobody has said what has happened to the device upon its hitting the ground?
Did they recover the hardware? My bet is that the Chinese have got their hands on an old DVD of Independance Day and want to try uploading a virus when the balloons tech is connected to the US defence departments IT systems…
Alpha zero
Us Military was able to garner data whilst it was flying over.
Morning all. Best wishes BK and please have a rest.
As I suggested last night there is a very clear message for Lidia Thorpe in these Newspoll numbers on the Voice. Support for Yes among Greens voters is highest of any group – 81%. Thorpe’s position is untenable if she continues.
I also wanted to add my support to this measure, which could generate badly needed tax revenue. Remove the fuel tax subsidy on mining and truck transport. It is contrary to GHG targets, very costly, and no longer needed. Smarter miners are already buying electric haul pacs. We have a shortage of truck drivers and ought to be encouraging a shift from road back to rail freight.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/05/labor-urged-to-halve-8bn-a-year-in-fuel-tax-credits-for-trucks-and-heavy-vehicles
Plus we need the revenue and miners are swimming in cash. It isn’t a new tax, just removing a tax deduction.
“S. Simpson says:
Monday, February 6, 2023 at 9:21 am
…Ahh yep the old Greens trope that the Liberals and Labor are no different to each other. Bit difficult to run that line now that the Greens and Liberals are on unity ticket to undermine the Voice and secure a “No” vote. All about owning Labor at the end of the day, I suppose.”
A note of caution, S. Simpson (in case it’s needed): Pooh1 is NOT a Greens supporter! He is a Liberal, most likely paid by a “think tank” friendly to the Liberal party. His deceptive “Greens style” is just designed to convince some readers that the ALP has strong enemies on the Progressive side, and therefore Progressives are a “mess”. The ultimate objective is to promote such a level of hatred for the ALP in some left-wingers, that they will preference the ALP below their local Coalition party. Poor Pooh1, however, seems to have missed the memo: The vast majority of Greens voters preference the ALP above the Coalition, the vast majority of ALP voters preference the Greens above the Coalition.
5 days ago we were told the Greens were heading to a retreat to work out their position on the Voice. 5 days later there is nothing, other than that Lidia Thorpe didn’t attend in person (as presumably she had other priorities than attend partyroom meetings). At the moment the Greens are effectively leaderless.
Gettysburg1863 @ #38 Monday, February 6th, 2023 – 9:03 am
It’s what happens when your argument falls to bits and is left in tatters.
Mavis
“ A highly confidential report by Infrastructure NSW, the government’s independent adviser, is scathing of Transport for NSW for inadequate planning, weak oversight and failing to heed warnings which have led to the project suffering a “significant cost and schedule blowout”.
While not defending Perrottet, this sort of mess comes about from several fixable policy blunders.
– lack of technical skills in State transport departments due to cutting engineers
– lack of consistent technical standards for rail rolling stock (light and heavy) in Australia. None for light rail, different in every State for heavy rail.
– decline in local rail manufacturing leads to foreign builders who don’t understand tevhnical requirements.
We saw a similar mess on trains in Qld under Campbell “Can’t do” Newman.
[‘The NSW government’s proposed gambling reform policy would ensure all poker machines in the state become cashless by 2028.’]
An awful amount of money laundering will occur in the meantime. Not good enough Dom!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-06/nsw-gambling-reform-agreement/101934094
[‘Ukraine’s defence minister, under pressure from a corruption scandal, is to be reshuffled into another government job as Russian forces close in on Bakhmut amid heavy fighting, a close ally of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has announced.
The position of Oleksii Reznikov, one of Ukraine’s better-known figures internationally, has been under threat after it emerged the defence ministry paid twice or three times the supermarket price of food to supply troops on the frontline.’]
War and the black market have a long history.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/05/talk-of-resignation-and-retreat-swirls-in-ukraine-as-bakhmut-enters-endgame
Cartoons:
David Rowe:
Megan Herbet:
US Cartoons:
UK Cartoons:
S. Simpson @ #116 Monday, February 6th, 2023 – 8:31 am
Indeed. And that is also why it is disingenuous now to claim that there should be no party politics in support for the Voice. Why else did Bandt (as leader it had to be his decision) call this meeting if not to unify his party?
Socrates
My observations of Lidia Thorpe from way back when. Before she was even a senator.
In a nutshell…..
Narcissist.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is approaching the one year mark.
Surely the oligarchs and Russians generally,want Putin to exit stage left by now.
Socrates:
Monday, February 6, 2023 at 9:34 am
Agree, no better evidenced than by defence procurement, though the buck stops with the relevant minister.
Dandy Murray @ #104 Monday, February 6th, 2023 – 9:19 am
You appear to have missed the point entirely. “Big Data” is not about the quantity of data, it is about data matching between previously separate data sources, and how this can be used and abused.
I can’t think of a more clear-cut example of how badly this can go wrong than RoboDebt.
Ven was right (about one thing at least).
Looks like the NSW Clubs has done a deal with the Government and left the ALP out in the cold.
Does NSW Labor jump on board with the deal – or hold on for an unloved ‘trial’. Hilarious.
But of course this hasnt stopped the GOP spewing crapola.
—–
Jim Sciutto
Notable: US officials say they were able to block the balloon from gathering intel during its overflight of the US, while the US military was able to turn the tables, so to speak, to gather intel on the balloon itself and its equipment.
Interesting. I can tell how effective my posts are by the level of snark that they generate.
Today we are about a 4.5 on the snark-o-meter, and rising.
Its hilarious watching the right wing media in the US spruiking for Ron Desantis ahead of Trump. Either way they are onto a loser. Lol
Mavis
True re defense too. You often see defense projects with vague technical requirements that can be twisted to justify selecting any option. So we often buy duds.
What does “regionally superior” mean? Quieter than a Chinese sub? Or a Russian sub? Or as quiet as the world’s best? Big difference in cost depending on the answer. The failure to specify requirements in detail also leads to increased risk of failure.
The vagueness does not help security, since we are buying foreign designs everyone knows about. It only helps the bureaucrats hide failure.
Player One @ Monday, February 6, 2023 at 9:43 am
Wow! So wRONg this morning, it has moved from funny to slightly worrying.
R U OK?
F.A.S.T. Warning Signs
Use the letters in F.A.S.T. to spot a Stroke
F = Face Drooping – Does one side of the face droop or is it numb? Ask the person to smile. Is the person’s smile uneven?
A = Arm Weakness – Is one arm weak or numb? Ask the person to raise both arms. Does one arm drift downward?
S = Speech Difficulty – Is speech slurred?
T = Time to call 000
Lars Von Trier:
Monday, February 6, 2023 at 9:44 am
Perrottet has more on his plate than a free seafood smorgasbord whereas Minns is blissfully counting down to March, 25.
Oh P1, do you actually believe that?
It was simple, small and uncomplicated data.
The data users made the errors.
Anyone who blames the data is trying to hide the reasons for its misuse, the people who misused it or those who signed off on its misuse.
Oh P1, do you actually believe that?
It was simple, small and uncomplicated data.
The data users made the errors.
Anyone who blames the data is trying to hide the reasons for its misuse, the people who misused it or those who signed off on its misuse.
Ahem… but it was worth repeating.
Oh, oh … I feel a disturbance in the Force.
unAustralian: Opposition leader the Dark Lord Peter Dutton has warned his colleagues not to challenge him for the leadership after the latest polls revealed that he had made little to no ground on the Government in a year.
”Politics is not a popularity contest you know, said the Dark Lord. ”A lot of people do like me, for instance my Mum thinks I’m tolerable and my wife and kids like me too.” ”And have you ever heard Sky News after Dark, those freaks worship me.”
The Guardian Watch:
Warning, comments are open today on TG Live thread….
See you there….
🙂
Holdenhillbilly @ Monday, February 6, 2023 at 9:54 am
Timing! 🙂
Alpo @ #140 Monday, February 6th, 2023 – 9:56 am
Do folk use their PB names in the G? I don’t but was curious.
Dandy Murray @ #135 Monday, February 6th, 2023 – 9:53 am
I would explain it again, but if you missed it the first two times then I am guessing there is little point, and it would just bore everyone else.
“Player One says:
Monday, February 6, 2023 at 9:54 am
Oh, oh … I feel a disturbance in the Force.”
Dear me, Pooh1, make sure that you wear adult nappies. You don’t want your disturbance to make a mess all over the place here…
Yup. Snark-o-meter just jumped to 7.5!
OK, I have caught up and as far as I know my request for an explanation of the “Truth” component remains unanswered apart from a little waffling about historical massacres which nobody denies happened and which can be further researched already for anybody who wants to.
I would like an answer on this because if the minds of PB can’t explain to a relatively friendly person like me what the Truth bit is about and why we need a commission for it, i expect it will be hard to explain to the general public.
As I said in my comment yesterday, I’m supportive (as I am for the Voice) on the basis that the Uluru statement asked for it and I am supportive of giving Indigenous people what they think will work instead of yet another white man intervention. But that doesn’t mean I understand what it is meant to do or why it is wanted.
“Mostly Interested says:
Monday, February 6, 2023 at 9:56 am
Alpo @ #140 Monday, February 6th, 2023 – 9:56 am
Do folk use their PB names in the G? I don’t but was curious.”
In TG I am “Alpo88” in case you want to know. They requested a longer name than “Alpo”, and “88” is simply the year when I came to Australia (“1988”) from somewhere in the EU.
Boerwar says:
Monday, February 6, 2023 at 8:23 am
The Greens have announced that this week they will announce their formal position. I predict:
1. The Greens emphasize that Indigenous First Nations have not ceded sovereignty and that this has the complete sympathy of all Greens.
2. The Greens want a Treaty Now! Labor is deliberately holding back from this.
3. The Greens want more detail on the Voice Referendum but Labor is holding back.
4. The Greens have been negotiating with the Labor Government. As a result the Greens have forced the Labor Government to do more practical stuff against the worst instincts of the Labor Party Same Old Same Old. This is still not good enough, cos Labor bad, but the Greens are the true friends of First Nations, so there!
5. The Voice must be grassroots based and not top down. Again, Labor did not have a clue about this and thank goodness for the Greens. When it comes time to legislate the Voice, the Greens will abuse the BOP in the Senate to make sure that the Voice reflects 100% the demands of Grassroots Senator Thorpe.
7. Despite serious serious ongoing concerns about the many failures of the Labor Government, the Greens and against the worst inclinations of the Labor Government, the Greens will sort of support the Yes case but, but, but, Treaty Now!
8. Given the special circumstances of Bandt’s leadership embarrassment, the Greens’ Official Spokesperson on First Nations is free to continue to say what they want to, up to, and including, trying to sink what the rest of the Greens are trying to achieve.
———————————————————————————————-
Seems like a highly likely summary meaning though that the only Greens voice actually being heard, regardless of what is decided will be Thorpe’s. She is the spokesperson, the authority on the subject in her party. Bandt is fast becoming a diminished entity and is unlikely to lead a disunited Greens party into the next election. He lacks the moral courage necessary of a leader to make difficult decisions.
I don’t use my PB nom on other fora because I was on other fora with other noms before I came to PB. But Mavis has worked me out. 🙂
@Mostly Interested: No, my Guardian screenname was repeated from a now-defunct site I frequented in my youth where it was literally chosen by a randomiser. I don’t use that name anywhere else including PB, my Guardian account registration is really really old at this point. I also don’t bother commenting much on the Guardian anymore.