Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 55, Coalition 40, undecided 5 (open thread)

The latest Essential Research poll finds no indication of weakening support for the government or an Indigenous voice.

Federal voting intention numbers from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll have both parties down a point on the primary vote from a fortnight ago, with Labor at 33% and the Coalition at 30%, with the Greens enjoying a curiously timed three point surge to 17%, One Nation down two to 6% and undecided unchanged at 5%. Presumably reflecting the elevated result for the Greens, Labor is up two on the 2PP+ measure at 55% and the Coalition are down two to 40%, with undecided steady at 5%.

The poll also featured the pollster’s monthly “favourability ratings” for the two leaders, whom respondents rate on a scale of one to ten rather than provide straight approval and disapproval responses. Anthony Albanese’s results were little changed from late November, with 47% rating him seven or higher (up one), 27% from four to six (up one) and 22% from zero to three (down one), while Peter Dutton is respectively at 26% (down two), 31% (down one) and 35% (up two).

Support for an Indigenous voice increased two points to 65% with opposition down two to 35%, while 30% said they felt well informed about the proposal compared with 37% for poorly informed. Forty-three per cent rated that the country was headed in the right direction (down one), compared with 37% for the wrong direction (up one). The 300 respondents from New South Wales were again asked about approval of the state leaders, with Dominic Perrottet up four on approval to 51% and down three on disapproval to 33%, while Chris Minns at is steady at 38% and down two to 25%.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,009 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 55, Coalition 40, undecided 5 (open thread)”

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  1. ‘Socrates says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 5:29 pm

    All fair enough. A war canoe full of Maori coming over the Tasman could be a bit scary. But then I suppose any decent SSN could sink it by ramming
    ….’
    ——————————–
    One of the notions that intrigues me is whether Polynesian navigators ever made it to continental Australia.

  2. BW: “One of the notions that intrigues me is whether Polynesian navigators ever made it to continental Australia.”

    It’s a mistake to think that there wasn’t travel and trade amongst the different parts of the south pacific throughout their entire history. It’s not like the fishing people of Indonesia and PNG wouldn’t have noticed a whopping big continent just south of them. There’s strong evidence that the entire archipelago was occupied by early humans from 500K to 2m years ago.

  3. Boerwar

    “ One of the notions that intrigues me is whether Polynesian navigators ever made it to continental Australia.”

    Fascinating question. When you consider they got as far as Pitcairn and Easter Island you would think they must have. We know that the Polynesians had boats capable of ocean travel three thousand years ago. So I find it hard to believe they missed Australia.

    And if you ever meet a Torres Strait islander, their culture is a diverse mix of various sea traders going back way before Cook. Plus we know Timorese at least visited the Tiwi islands regularly. So I think it is a certainty.

    Australia was fully inhabited by the various Aboriginal peoples. Its a fair bet they traded with them.

  4. Socrates says:

    Australia was fully inhabited by the various Aboriginal peoples. Its a fair bet they traded with them.
    __________
    And yet none of the Polynesian domesticated animals, namely pigs and chickens were here.

  5. The teals have damage the likes of Wilkie politically , he is not the enforcer as he was previously

    Nonsense. Wilkie more or less is a teal these days. He even has Climate 200 funding.

  6. nath: “And yet none of the Polynesian domesticated animals, namely pigs and chickens were here.”

    Hard to transport in a boat, and not necessary when you have an endless supply of fish.

  7. Nath:

    Steve Price doesn’t approve of women wearing fake eyelashes under any circumstances whatsoever. Sky News is amazing stuff.

    The great thing about Sky is that they focus on the issues that really matter.

  8. Pi says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 5:56 pm

    nath: “And yet none of the Polynesian domesticated animals, namely pigs and chickens were here.”

    Hard to transport in a boat, and not necessary when you have an endless supply of fish.
    ______
    they transported them all the way to Hawaii!

  9. nath says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 5:51 pm
    Steve Price doesn’t approve of women wearing fake eyelashes under any circumstances whatsoever. Sky News is amazing stuff.
    ——————————————————————————-

    The dinosaurs are lashing out as the comet approaches.
    Price might want to reflect on why so few millennials onwards watch such rubbish or vote accordingly.

  10. ‘Pi says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 5:48 pm

    BW: “One of the notions that intrigues me is whether Polynesian navigators ever made it to continental Australia.”

    It’s a mistake to think that there wasn’t travel and trade amongst the different parts of the south pacific throughout their entire history. It’s not like the fishing people of Indonesia and PNG wouldn’t have noticed a whopping big continent just south of them. There’s strong evidence that the entire archipelago was occupied by early humans from 500K to 2m years ago.’
    —————————
    …mistake… = straw man.
    1. We know that there were a couple of centuries of trade between Makassans and northern First Nations.
    2. We know that there were trade connections in the Torres Strait. As far as we know these were micronesian rather than polynesian.
    3. The evidence for human occupation in continental Australia is less than 100,000. There is some bio-geographic evidence (change to burning patterns/spread of eucalypts) for the original settlement of continental Australia being 60-70,000 years ago.
    4. I am not aware of any evidence at all that humans were round about the whole archipelago 2 millions BP. I would like to see the evidence for your assertion of 500,000 BP.

    Socrates
    There was a polynesian altar and there was an old wreck of a polynesian boat on Norfolk Island when europeans first checked it out. There were no living Polynesians. Polynesian rats are present.

    This is probably the closest proven evidence for polynesian contact with continental Australia. Prevailing winds and prevailing currents are a possible ‘reason’ for not getting any closer. We don’t know. Indigenous dreaming stories might be a potential source of clues.

  11. Socrates says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 5:29 pm

    “Wars are usually only sought by those who have no intention of fighting them themselves.”

    I’m taking this out of your context (I think) but this seems to be apposite for a few of the regulars here.

  12. I have always wondered if the Roman galleys ever made it to Australia…..they were know to be skirting the land around the northern Indian Ocean and around the Indian sub continent as far as Burma/Myanmar….probably not….but wouldnt mind finding a stash of Roman coins on the Pilbera Coast….that would be something

  13. Colonization/exploration voyages usually carried polynesian basic commodities as a matter of course. Pigs, bananas, taro and sweet potatoes were usual.

  14. Asha says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 5:55 pm
    The teals have damage the likes of Wilkie politically , he is not the enforcer as he was previously
    Nonsense. Wilkie more or less is a teal these days. He even has Climate 200 funding.

    —————-

    His vote isn’t doing to damage Labor , as it would in a minority government

  15. Chapeau nath. You have united all of Bludger on our submarine policy. Is this our version of a Makarrata commission?

    HMAS Midnight Oil:
    https://youtu.be/SAFv2NEE-_c

    HMAS Cold Chisel:
    https://youtu.be/dTjvG4WJD_A

    HMAS Red Gum:
    https://youtu.be/mGDhzVi1bqU

    HMAS AC/DC:
    https://youtu.be/v2AC41dglnM

    HMAS Angles:
    https://youtu.be/aozgp2Od7b8

    HMAS Daddy Cool:
    https://youtu.be/oQfAZVsz6KM

    And of course, HMAS Tim Minchin:
    https://youtu.be/EtHOmforqxk

  16. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 6:10 pm

    Chapeau nath. You have united all of Bludger on our submarine policy. Is this our version of a Makarrata commission?
    ________
    I fixed it. I’m a fixer.

  17. Nath

    Good question re the Polynesian pigs and goats. Their ocean going canoes were certainly big enough to carry them as your Hawaii example proves.

    The Polynesians were culturally distinct from the Aboriginals, who over three waves of settlement dating back over 40,000 (60,000?) years. I understand the Aboriginals were originally a Melanesian people, though obviously diverged over a long period. So maybe it was as simple as: “this is our place, we’ll trade with you but keep your animals out.” I don’t know I’m just guessing on why not.

    I did some Anthropology subjects when I did a BA back in the 1990s. I was working in road planning and after Mabo understanding Aboriginal settlement, heritage and tenure was more important. It was amazing then how little we knew of the pre-European settlement history of Australia. But I’m sure (hope?) knowledge has moved on since.

    Wouldn’t it be great to have a world class museum of Aboriginal culture and history in Australia? We have an anthropological history that makes the cro-magnon caves in Spain and France trivial by comparison. But we don’t study it or celebrate it.

  18. “Pi says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 6:07 pm
    BW: “I am not aware of any evidence at all that humans were round about the whole archipelago 2 millions BP.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Java_Man

    Pi, the only “humans” are Homo sapiens. The so-called “Java Man” is Homo erectus, a closely related but different species. Homo sapiens did evolve eventually from H. erectus, but in Africa. I know that some Japanese geneticists argue that H. sapiens may have independently evolved in Asia as well from H. erectus, but the currently accepted theory is that H. sapiens evolved in Africa and then spread elsewhere, including Asia.

  19. Socrates @ #995 Thursday, February 9th, 2023 – 6:15 pm

    Nath

    Good question re the Polynesian pigs and goats. Their ocean going canoes were certainly big enough to carry them as your Hawaii example proves.

    The Polynesians were culturally distinct from the Aboriginals, who over three waves of settlement dating back over 40,000 (60,000?) years. I understand the Aboriginals were originally a Melanesian people, though obviously diverged over a long period. So maybe it was as simple as: “this is our place, we’ll trade with you but keep your animals out.” I don’t know I’m just guessing on why not.

    I did some Anthropology subjects when I did a BA back in the 1990s. I was working in road planning and after Mabo understanding Aboriginal settlement, heritage and tenure was more important. It was amazing then how little we knew of the pre-European settlement history of Australia. But I’m sure (hope?) knowledge has moved on since.

    Wouldn’t it be great to have a world class museum of Aboriginal culture and history in Australia? We have an anthropological history that makes the cro-magnon caves in Spain and France trivial by comparison. But we don’t study it or celebrate it.

    We can’t afford it after funding the AWM.

  20. There is $80 million going to an Indigenous art gallery in Alice Springs. In the context of a national Indigenous museum this is sort of a bit weak, IMO.

    I agree that a proper national First Nations museum/history/culture/art is badly lacking.

    Perhaps First Nations negotiators could bung that in as a line into the Treaty?

  21. Pi

    Wikipedia authors are not necessarily scientists.

    It’s more correct to identify the fossils – as the article goes on to do – as hominid.

    I note there is no reference attached to the ‘human fossil’ reference, so it’s hard to check whether the author/s of the entry were quoting scientists.

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