Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 55, Coalition 40, undecided 5 (open thread)

The latest Essential Research poll finds no indication of weakening support for the government or an Indigenous voice.

Federal voting intention numbers from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll have both parties down a point on the primary vote from a fortnight ago, with Labor at 33% and the Coalition at 30%, with the Greens enjoying a curiously timed three point surge to 17%, One Nation down two to 6% and undecided unchanged at 5%. Presumably reflecting the elevated result for the Greens, Labor is up two on the 2PP+ measure at 55% and the Coalition are down two to 40%, with undecided steady at 5%.

The poll also featured the pollster’s monthly “favourability ratings” for the two leaders, whom respondents rate on a scale of one to ten rather than provide straight approval and disapproval responses. Anthony Albanese’s results were little changed from late November, with 47% rating him seven or higher (up one), 27% from four to six (up one) and 22% from zero to three (down one), while Peter Dutton is respectively at 26% (down two), 31% (down one) and 35% (up two).

Support for an Indigenous voice increased two points to 65% with opposition down two to 35%, while 30% said they felt well informed about the proposal compared with 37% for poorly informed. Forty-three per cent rated that the country was headed in the right direction (down one), compared with 37% for the wrong direction (up one). The 300 respondents from New South Wales were again asked about approval of the state leaders, with Dominic Perrottet up four on approval to 51% and down three on disapproval to 33%, while Chris Minns at is steady at 38% and down two to 25%.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,009 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 55, Coalition 40, undecided 5 (open thread)”

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  1. Well you can defeather as many crows as u like (metaphorically of course, as we are all animal lovers here), if there is one thing worse than Collingwood…..and there is only one….and that is The Crows.

    Edit….Home time….thats enough banter for one day

  2. I have just had a catchup with a good friend who resides in Lidia Thorpe’s seat.

    They are disgusted totally with her behaviour (they voted for Lidia) but now regret their decision to support her campaign. Long term Greens and Dems supporters they are now turning to the ALP.

    A comment was “Lidia is charismatic but essentially a lightweight on policy and really is basically a lazy individual that will do nothing but 9 to 5 actually 10 to 4. Never seen in her office.”

    Interesting.

  3. I have just had a catchup with a good friend who resides in Lidia Thorpe’s seat.

    They are disgusted totally with her behaviour (they voted for Lidia) but now regret their decision to support her campaign. Long term Greens and Dems supporters they are now turning to the ALP.

    A comment was “Lidia is charismatic but essentially a lightweight on policy and really is basically a lazy individual that will do nothing but 9 to 5 actually 10 to 4. Never seen in her office.”

    Interesting.

  4. Grant_ExLibris says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 7:33 pm

    I have just had a catchup with a good friend who resides in Lidia Thorpe’s seat.

    They are disgusted totally with her behaviour (they voted for Lidia) but now regret their decision to support her campaign. Long term Greens and Dems supporters they are now turning to the ALP.

    A comment was “Lidia is charismatic but essentially a lightweight on policy and really is basically a lazy individual that will do nothing but 9 to 5 actually 10 to 4. Never seen in her office.”
    ________
    Lives in her seat? Never seen in her office? A lazy individual?

    Something smells like bullshit….

    The floor is yours Senator

  5. Holdenhillbilly @ #1041 Thursday, February 9th, 2023 – 7:13 pm

    Lidia Thorpe won’t rule out launching new political party as she doubles down against voice to parliament: Former Greens senator says she will be guided by activists and elders as she pledges to champion the Blak sovereignty movement (Guardian)

    I heard her interviewed by Raff Epstein. On one level convincing but on others unable to break away from her limited arguments/talking points

  6. 22yo, 1st test. And you walk out to face two of the best spin bowlers on a turning day 1 pitch in Nagpur.
    Oh well. Hope he bowls well.

  7. None of Your Beeswax @ #1047 Thursday, February 9th, 2023 – 7:17 pm

    Once this Collingwood Army is routed at the Battle of Adelaide Oval where they were surrounded and slaughtered while devouring a bunch of sick and wounded crows, The Port Adelaide Army appeared on the horrizon like Blucher at Waterloo and put them to the sword and they swore never to think that Black and White was exclusively theirs and Newcastle, Wests, LA Raiders Juventus and other tribes agreed

    I can arrange for brown paper bags full of cash from Princes Park sources to fund the Port army in any battle against the Collingwood army. Only too pleased to assist.

  8. “nath says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 7:15 pm
    Alpo says:

    Pi, “member of the human lineage” is not the same as human. The differences between Homo sapiens and Homo erectus are enormous. That’s why they are classified as two different species
    _____________
    They are two species. But both species are human, from the Genus Homo. Get it?”

    You just don’t understand. Same genus is one thing, same species is a very different thing. Two different species of the same genus, when they hybridise, may not produce fertile offspring, do you know where mules (that are infertile) come from? They come from the crossing of two different species of the same genus: Horse (Equus caballus) and donkey (Equus asinus). Whereas members of the same species produce fertile offspring (horses with horses; donkeys with donkeys).

    You don’t call a donkey a horse, you don’t call a horse a donkey…. they are different, and yet they belong to the same genus: Equus. You call Homo sapiens human, you don’t call Homo erectus human.

    I am sure that with a modicum of effort you will understand… Oh, and btw, this is science not politics. Switch to the correct mode, please.

  9. laughtong @ #1063 Thursday, February 9th, 2023 – 7:37 pm

    Holdenhillbilly @ #1041 Thursday, February 9th, 2023 – 7:13 pm

    Lidia Thorpe won’t rule out launching new political party as she doubles down against voice to parliament: Former Greens senator says she will be guided by activists and elders as she pledges to champion the Blak sovereignty movement (Guardian)

    I heard her interviewed by Raff Epstein. On one level convincing but on others unable to break away from her limited arguments/talking points

    Of course she’s convincing, because she’s right !

  10. nath says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 7:36 pm
    Grant_ExLibris says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 7:33 pm

    I have just had a catchup with a good friend who resides in Lidia Thorpe’s seat.

    They are disgusted totally with her behaviour (they voted for Lidia) but now regret their decision to support her campaign. Long term Greens and Dems supporters they are now turning to the ALP.

    A comment was “Lidia is charismatic but essentially a lightweight on policy and really is basically a lazy individual that will do nothing but 9 to 5 actually 10 to 4. Never seen in her office.”
    ________
    Lives in her seat? Never seen in her office? A lazy individual?

    Something smells like bullshit….

    The floor is yours Senator
    ___________________
    This sounds like a scenario which is ripe for a Dr John tall tale….

  11. Frankly, calling Thorpe a ‘lazy individual’, despite all the evidence that she is quite active, feeds into a narrative about indigenous Australians that is disturbing.

  12. “It’s too bad that stupidity isn’t painful.”

    ― Anton LaVey
    ___________________________
    I think he had Alpo in mind.

  13. Alpo: “You don’t ”

    You don’t blather on like a numpty without backing up your opinion. Or, at least, I don’t.

    We’re done.

    nath: “finches”

    A guy wrote a great book about them once.

  14. zoomster says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 7:50 pm

    nath

    ‘Finch’ is not a species name – and there are birds commonly referred to as finches who aren’t regarded as true finches.
    ________
    Man is not a species name either. It derives from Homo (Man). Homo Sapiens are (Wise Man).

    Honestly, the fact that a teacher is disputing modern taxonomical classifications is very surprising.

  15. ISW has this fresh assessment of Russian offensive activity along the Kharkhiv-Lushansk front, indicating this year’s first major push from either side is likely on:

    “Russian forces have regained the initiative in Ukraine and have begun their next major offensive in the eastern Luhansk region, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said in its latest report.

    The commitment of significant elements of at least three major Russian divisions to offensive operations in this sector indicates the Russian offensive has begun, even if Ukrainian forces are so far preventing Russian forces from securing significant gains.”

    The pace of Russian operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line in western Luhansk has “increased markedly over the past week”, the ISW added.

    Citing Russian sources, the thinktank said reports claim that Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian defensive lines and making marginal advances along the Kharkiv-Luhansk border, particularly northwest of Svatove near Kupyansk and west of Kreminna.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/feb/09/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskiy-to-lobby-eu-leaders-in-brussels-nato-chief-warns-moscow-is-preparing-new-offensive-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-63e449dd8f0827de5749030f#block-63e449dd8f0827de5749030f

    It would be good to know the weather/terrain conditions there right now. I would have thought this was too early in the year for hard ground conditions conducive to offensive operations against well dug-in defences, given the absence of significant freezing this winter.

  16. Cronus: “I think we’ve mistaken the Collingwood Army, aren’t they really just the hordes of orcs from Lord of the rings?”

    This is like one of them pictures that tests colour blindness, isn’t it?

  17. “nath says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 7:47 pm
    Alpo, your idiocy is astounding. What about the over 200 different species of finches? Yet they are all Finches.”

    Finches is a common name that is used for the members of the Family Fringillidae. Now, Humans belong to the Family Hominidae. Members of the family Hominidae: humans, chimpanzees, gorillas, and orangutans. Therefore, according to you, orangutans are human…

    Have a nice sleep….

  18. Cronus @ Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 7:46 pm:

    “Russia’s Wagner mercenary group has stopped recruiting prisoners to fight in Ukraine, Wagner’s founder Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Thursday.”

    Interesting.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-09/russia-wagner-mercenaries-halt-prisoner-recruitment-campaign/101954206
    =================

    Cronus, this is VERY interesting! ISW have this assessment on their latest report, dated yesterday (so before this latest development you’ve posted):

    “The Wagner Group is reportedly resorting to more coercive tactics in its campaign to recruit prisoners, possibly in response to declining numbers of recruits since autumn 2022. Independent Russian outlet Agentstvo reported on February 8 that Russian lawyers and human rights activists stated that Wagner Group representatives and Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs and Federal Security Service (FSB) officials are threatening prisoners in Samara and Rostov oblasts, Krasnodar Krai, and the North Caucasus with new criminal cases if they refuse to volunteer with the Wagner Group in Ukraine. One of the lawyers reportedly stated that fewer convicts have agreed to volunteer with the Wagner Group in an unspecified recent period because of information about its high casualties, supporting ISW’s previous assessment that Russian convicts’ resistance may have caused a decline in the Wagner Group’s prison recruitment campaign. The Wagner Group will likely continue these more coercive practices as it seeks to replenish its forces in Ukraine with more convict recruits following months of highly attritional human wave attacks in eastern Ukraine.”

    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-8-2023

    I assume this was correct as of yesterday. If so, it tells me that this latest announcement is the result of Wagner’s failure to achieve the recruitment goals they have been assessed as having pursued up until very recently. If so, it augurs very poorly for any future mobilisations the RF Armed Forces amy attempt.

  19. “Lars Von Trier says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 7:49 pm
    “It’s too bad that stupidity isn’t painful.”

    ― Anton LaVey
    ___________________________
    I think he had Alpo in mind.”

    Is that all what your mind can produce as a “contribution”?… Oh dear, the Liberals are truly doomed.

  20. Bad week for government – LOL

    We have Scomo and Birmingham undermining Dutton, one of the Liberal frontbench resigning in disgrace, and Bandt losing a Senator.

    What do the public think?

  21. In fact there is a current debate that proposes that homo erectus and homo sapiens should be regarded as members of the same species, Home Erectus Sapien and Homo Sapien Sapien.

    The category archaic human lacks a single, agreed definition.[9] According to one definition, Homo sapiens is a single species comprising several subspecies that include the archaics and modern humans. Under this definition, modern humans are referred to as Homo sapiens sapiens and archaics are also designated with the prefix “Homo sapiens”. For example, the Neanderthals are Homo sapiens neanderthalensis, and Homo heidelbergensis is Homo sapiens heidelbergensis. Other taxonomists prefer not to consider archaics and modern humans as a single species but as several different species. In this case the standard taxonomy is used, i.e. Homo rhodesiensis, or Homo neanderthalensis.[9]

    The evolutionary dividing lines that separate modern humans from archaic humans and archaic humans from Homo erectus are unclear.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archaic_humans

  22. According to the UK MoD, Russia has likely missed its opportunity for offensive operations over forzen ground over winter (such as it was), and that snow melts and consequent mud are the order of the day going forward, with its worst around mid-to-late March:

    “The latest British intelligence assessment suggests that freezing weather conditions, including frozen ground, has meant there has likely been little change in cross country mobility (CCM) conditions in eastern Ukraine in recent weeks.

    These conditions are “likely to be at its worst, with extremely muddy conditions, over mid- to late-March” the UK Ministry of Defence added.

    “Commanders on both sides will highly likely seek to avoid scheduling major offensives at such times.

    “However, perceived political or operational opportunities can override such concerns, as demonstrated by Russia launching its invasion in late-February 2022.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/feb/09/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskiy-to-lobby-eu-leaders-in-brussels-nato-chief-warns-moscow-is-preparing-new-offensive-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-63e449dd8f0827de5749030f#block-63e449dd8f0827de5749030f

    Again, if events on the ground have overtaken this assessment via a political decision from the Kremlin, it will be a strong indication that the Kremlin is ignoring operational reality in its strategic decision making.

  23. “Pi says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 7:52 pm
    Alpo: “You don’t ”

    You don’t blather on like a numpty without backing up your opinion. Or, at least, I don’t.”

    Another “stellar” contribution, this time from Piss (note the inevitable change from respect to derision… you deserve it, Piss!).

    Now Piss, you are welcome to join Nutty, and L’arse and go to sleep, this biological conversation is way beyond your collective intellectual capacities…

    We’re done.

  24. Peter Dutton campaigning in Melbourne would be interesting indeed. I assume it is fairly safe to say that if the Liberals lose Aston then any small chance of them winning in 2025 all but evaporates.

  25. Another report strongly indicating that the Russian push for 2023 is now under way:

    “Russian forces have significantly stepped up attacks in eastern Ukraine and are trying to break through Ukrainian defences near the town of Kreminna, a regional governor has said.

    Serhiy Haidai, governor of the Luhansk region, said Ukraine’s military were holding their ground near Kreminna, which Russian forces have held for months, but said they needed more weapons and ammunition to hold out, Reuters reports.

    “I can confirm that there has been a significant increase in attacks and shelling. And it is in the direction of Kreminna that they are trying to build on their success by pushing through out defenders’ defences,” he told Ukrainian television.

    “So far they have had no significant success, our defence forces are holding firmly there.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/feb/09/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskiy-to-lobby-eu-leaders-in-brussels-nato-chief-warns-moscow-is-preparing-new-offensive-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-63e449dd8f0827de5749030f#top-of-blog

    Again, I hope this indicates that political considerations are pushing the Kremlin into making operationally dubious strategic decisions.

  26. justif01:

    The Australian is already billing it as a test for Dutton:

    There is already a rush of factional suggestions who should run in the Melbourne seat of Aston, including Josh Frydenberg. Whoever is preselected, Peter Dutton needs a victory.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fcommentary%2Falan-tudge-exit-makes-aston-a-mustwin-byelection-for-peter-dutton%2Fnews-story%2F5d76b4d43550a309e52f62f7123b2680&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=dynamic-high-test-score&V21spcbehaviour=append

  27. “nath says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 8:03 pm
    In fact there is a current debate that proposes that homo erectus and homo sapiens should be regarded as members of the same species, Home Erectus Sapien and Homo Sapien Sapien.”

    nath, did you even understand the stuff that you cut and pasted? Nowhere there it says that “homo erectus and homo sapiens should be regarded as members of the same species, Home Erectus Sapien and Homo Sapien Sapien.”… Homo erectus and Homo sapiens are not, and nobody has ever suggested they are, the same species!

    Allow me to teach you, in your totally confused mind you are probably referring to the comparison between Humans and Neanderthals. There are arguments to regard both as members of the same species (but different sub-species): Humans: Homo sapiens sapiens; Neanderthals: Homo sapiens neanderthalensis. But that’s still disputed.

    Now please, just go to sleep.

  28. “J J Hall says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 8:09 pm
    Give it a break, Alpo.”

    I can only hope that the information provided may be of interest to some of the readers. Of course, I don’t hold any hope that Piss, Nuts and L’arse will profit from it in any way.
    But you are right…. enough of this.

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