Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 55, Coalition 40, undecided 5 (open thread)

The latest Essential Research poll finds no indication of weakening support for the government or an Indigenous voice.

Federal voting intention numbers from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll have both parties down a point on the primary vote from a fortnight ago, with Labor at 33% and the Coalition at 30%, with the Greens enjoying a curiously timed three point surge to 17%, One Nation down two to 6% and undecided unchanged at 5%. Presumably reflecting the elevated result for the Greens, Labor is up two on the 2PP+ measure at 55% and the Coalition are down two to 40%, with undecided steady at 5%.

The poll also featured the pollster’s monthly “favourability ratings” for the two leaders, whom respondents rate on a scale of one to ten rather than provide straight approval and disapproval responses. Anthony Albanese’s results were little changed from late November, with 47% rating him seven or higher (up one), 27% from four to six (up one) and 22% from zero to three (down one), while Peter Dutton is respectively at 26% (down two), 31% (down one) and 35% (up two).

Support for an Indigenous voice increased two points to 65% with opposition down two to 35%, while 30% said they felt well informed about the proposal compared with 37% for poorly informed. Forty-three per cent rated that the country was headed in the right direction (down one), compared with 37% for the wrong direction (up one). The 300 respondents from New South Wales were again asked about approval of the state leaders, with Dominic Perrottet up four on approval to 51% and down three on disapproval to 33%, while Chris Minns at is steady at 38% and down two to 25%.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,009 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 55, Coalition 40, undecided 5 (open thread)”

Comments Page 23 of 61
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  2. Nath @ 1949

    I don’t care what background Thorpe is. It is irrelevant.

    What is relevant is Thorpe’s work ethic which is dismal. A lazy individual. Works minimal hours and is not interested in local issues.

  3. zoomster says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 8:10 pm

    nath
    __________
    You should contact The Smithsonian and tell them they have got it all wrong, as well as every scientific department in the world. Tell them Professor Zoomster is on the phone.

    Early African Homo erectus fossils (sometimes called Homo ergaster) are the oldest known early humans to have possessed modern human-like body proportions with relatively elongated legs and shorter arms compared to the size of the torso.

    https://humanorigins.si.edu/evidence/human-fossils/species/homo-erectus

  4. “Asha says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 8:05 pm
    You’re an idiot, Alpo.”

    Oh dear, and now Asha is joining the Ignorant Mob…
    Enjoy the good company, Asha… and good luck, because stupidity may spread by contact.

  5. Grant_ExLibris says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 8:14 pm

    Nath @ 1949

    I don’t care what background Thorpe is. It is irrelevant.

    What is relevant is Thorpe’s work ethic which is dismal. A lazy individual. Works minimal hours and is not interested in local issues.
    _______
    She’s a Senator, moron. She doesn’t have a local electorate, nor does she have a local office for other random morons to gawk at.

  9. Nath @ 2017

    Thank you for your delightful reply.

    As I am now considered a moron I will slit my wrists.

    William – moderate this blog better please.

  11. “nath says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 8:15 pm”

    Again, you quote and either don’t read or don’t understand. Focus on this crucial cue: “human-like”…

    Do you get it?… “Like”, hence member of the same Genus… but not “same”, hence different Species….

    Now all the idiots who have dragged this conversation for far too long (and you know who you are). Accept it, you are completely out of your depth, just move on if you have any honesty left in you. If don’t have it, then piss off!

    And now it’s truly time to move on…..

  12. Steve777 @ Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 8:21 pm:

    “I see that we’ve moved on from Ukraine …”
    ==========

    Others wish! So, by the way, do Ukrainians. If only Putin would leave them alone.

  15. zoomster: “Wikipedia is not allowed as a reference material”

    I quoted encyclopaedia Brittanica. Are you one of those teachers that won’t allow that as a primary source?

  18. . sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 8:02 pm
    Bad week for government – LOL

    We have Scomo and Birmingham undermining Dutton, one of the Liberal frontbench resigning in disgrace, and Bandt losing a Senator.

    What do the public think?

    That the Murdoch poll is presented as a pie chart more or less in proportion to the reported polling numbers is telling.
    The beginning of the end?

  21. Oh, and no encyclopedia could be cited as a ‘primary source’.

    It is a secondary source.

    Encyclopedia entries should always be questioned. For example, the academic who wrote Encyclopedia Britannica’s entry on ‘Witches’ for a couple of decades (yonks ago) believed that witches (in the satan worshipping sense) had actually existed. EB thus recorded an outdated theory for many years after it had been discredited.

  22. I apologise. For being a person that makes people go certifiably mental trying to prove me wrong about the most trivial minutae because they feel like they’ve been slighted in the past.

    But the fact that you’ll argue the definitions of words developed over centuries and used extensively in science, backed up by primary sources, in order to argue that black is white? When your argument is the feels vs the Latin etymology of words as implemented in biology and anthropology? Jeepers… let it go.

  23. zoomster now is a good time to cite your references that Homo Erectus etc are not human. If you have any. Perhaps you and Alpo have a joint paper on hand.

  25. I stayed off PB today (bar a single post cause I got twitchy)

    How has the upcoming bielection been sliced?

    Kevin Bonham posted on Twitter that he’d be surprised if Labor won Tudges old seat. With a margin of 2.8% to the Libs, an expected swing against incumbent governments of 1%, and almost zero personal Tudge vote.

    The counter factuals in my mind are; the Federal Libs and Vic State Libs have almost no one who can assist a local candidate to campaign, the LOTO can not step foot in Victoria, the Libs have had their fund raising power base gutted by the Teals, the Greens just pissed off their own voters, State Labor is riding high in Victoria, and Federal Labor are doing alright.

    So I’m not bullish on a Labor win, but it would be a nice pick up and not outside the realms of fantasy.

    And if Josh runs its all over for PD.

  28. Zoomster:

    Well, yeah, but whether or not Wikipedia is recognised as a primary source by schools has little bearing on whether or not that particular article on archaic humans should be taken seriously.

    It’s 2023. Wikipedia is maintained by a legion of pedantic nerds obsessed with veracity. Most vandalism is reverted in minutes. Unless the article is on a very obscure topic or is riven with “citation needed” and “this article has multiple issues” infoboxes, you can generally rely on Wikipedia’s accuracy. Saying “lol, Wikipedia” in response to it being brought up as a source strikes me as a very 2006 way of thinking.

  30. Asha

    More lazy.

    I use wikipedia a lot, but if I prefer to track down the source of information when I can – even with articles, I’ll try and go to the original information when I can.

    With wikipedia, I encourage my students to use the footnotes to track the original source of the info and use that.

  33. sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 8:45 pm
    Lars

    The Taylor Family are first up at FICAC
    _________________________-
    I remember when Greiner set up NSW ICAC it was going to claim all sorts of Labor scalps especially Richo. It never laid a finger on Richo yet it claimed its creator Greiner.

    Better than even chance similar happens with FICAC.

  34. Zoomster:

    Asha

    More lazy.

    I use wikipedia a lot, but if I prefer to track down the source of information when I can – even with articles, I’ll try and go to the original information when I can.

    With wikipedia, I encourage my students to use the footnotes to track the original source of the info and use that.

    Wait, hold on, I thought this argument was about whether or not homo erectus and similar hominids are considered humans by the scientific community, not whether or not Nath is lazy.

    My point was that any Wikipedia article worth a damn has its own primary sources: the footnotes. And the relevant footnotes in both that article and articles on homo erectus and neanderthals and homo habilis and the like feature examples of experts in the field describing them as early or archaic humans. Which kind of confirms Nath’s argument, wouldn’t you think?

    Is that article incorrect? What did they get wrong? Can you provide sources that contradict the ones provided by those Wikipedia articles?

  36. Grant_ExLibris says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 8:14 pm
    Nath @ 1949

    I don’t care what background Thorpe is. It is irrelevant.

    What is relevant is Thorpe’s work ethic which is dismal. A lazy individual. Works minimal hours and is not interested in local issues.
    _________________________________________________________
    I don’t really care what background Lidia Thorpe is from either. Nor do I care if she’s lazy or if she has the work ethic of a Trojan.
    What I do care about is that Thorpe won a Senate seat campaigning for the Greens and continues to hold that seat, even though the voters who put her there clearly wanted a Greens representative.
    Thorpe is more than entitled to campaign for “Black sovereignty”, whatever that might be, and to seek election to any parliament to that end. She is not entitled to use another party and its supporters in the way she has.
    There were signs of her destructiveness and self-importance as far back as 2020, when she was first selected by the Greens to fill their Senate vacancy. “It is my people that have put me here,” Thorpe told The Age. “The Greens just stamped it.”
    What sort of delusional statement was that? Who exactly are “my people” and how did they put her into the Senate? Did they use magic? Don’t the Greens get any credit at all?
    Thorpe just wants a platform from which she can sprout her views and she doesn’t care who she duds along the way.
    Hopefully she will vote the right way in the Senate more often than the wrong way, but her eventual departure from politics should be a moment of immense relief for the progressive side of politics.

  37. I can’t see how NSW ICAC would have ever claimed Richardson (how is he still alive) since he was operating mostly at the federal level.

  38. Trump facing Biden (again!) in 2024?

    “Nikki Haley presidential run would sink DeSantis and hand Trump victory – poll
    Yahoo News/YouGov survey finds that an additional Republican candidate would split the vote in former president’s favor”
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/09/nikki-haley-presidential-run-ron-desantis-donald-trump-poll

    I mean, I am sure that religious democrats are already praying for that to happen!
    Go Trumpy… run… run… run again!
    Ha, ha, ha…

  39. “Volodymyr Zelenskiy is expected to call on European leaders to speed up the delivery of weapons to help his country repel Russia’s invasion, and not put unnecessary obstacles in Ukraine’s path to EU membership, when he attends a special summit in Brussels on Thursday.”…
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/09/zelenskiy-pushes-for-swift-eu-membership-in-first-trip-to-brussels-since-invasion

    Volodymyr, I am sure that there is a seat in both the EU and NATO for Ukraine, but you surely understand that the seat cannot be made officially available until the war is over. Therefore, you are right, NATO and your other allies should speed up the delivery of military aid so that the Ukrainian Spring offensive will mark the beginning of the end of this demented Putin’s adventure in Ukraine.

  42. Republican primaries start in February 2024. I expect most candidates will have dropped out by then – they are just hoping either Trump or DeSantis weakens over the next year. (Yes, that means we have a year of posturing before anybody in the US gets to vote – so much fun…)

  43. Richardson was State Secretary of the NSW Labor Party…

    Was Richo’s alleged involvement in the bashing of Peter Baldwin by Tom Domican a federal matter?

    And his alleged involvement in the torching of Alpine Offset a federal matter?

    Then there was the ‘love boat’ matter?

    What is it about Graham Richardson? The garrulous, gregarious 54-year-old with the bouffant hair and taste for the high life seems unable to go for more than a few years without a fresh scandal breaking around him. Perhaps it’s the company he keeps. His mates, and he has many, are often to be found at the centre of some of the country’s biggest controversies, and when the spotlight turns on them, there’s Richo, too.

    For a time, it seemed the former political heavyweight and adviser and lobbyist for Kerry Packer had managed to get beyond more than two decades of notoriety (over issues as varied as his dealings with the infamous Nugan Hand bank, the Love Boat scandal, and the so-called Marshall Islands affair, for starters). Now he’s back in the headlines – this time, hitched to his close mate, celebrity stockbroker Rene Rivkin.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-fixer-in-a-fix-20031213-gdhzni.html

  44. Oh dear, this is funny:

    “A world in which your boss spies on your brainwaves? That future is near”
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/09/boss-spies-brainwaves-dystopian-future

    Liberal Party Headquarters.
    Team Leader: Switch on our Poster A, let’s see how the brainwaves are going.
    Technician: Sorry Sir, it’s all flat here.
    Team Leader: What? A member of the Enemy Group killed Poster A?
    Technician: No Sir, he is still alive and well, but it’s just all flat.
    Team Leader: I don’t understand, do you have records of previous measurements?
    Technician: Yes Sir, they are right here.
    Team Leader: So?
    Technician: Just the same, it’s all flat.
    Team Leader: How do you explain that?
    Technician: Sir, I am afraid that our recruitment agency has been branch stacked and selection is not what it used to be.

  46. “Steve777 says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 9:11 pm
    “A test for Dutton””

    Indeed, that’s an important test for Dutton, alongside the coming NSW state election. If those end up being two losses for the Liberals, where is Dutton’s leadership going to go?

  48. I always remember Richo at a NSW Parly inquiry being asked about a lobbying contract – and saying basically ” no need for a contract, its all in my head” with a Chesire Cat grin.

    Too cunning to ever caught up in any problem of that nature IMO.

  49. Well, at least Scholz’s words are fine:
    “Scholz said it was clear that Moscow would not win, and assured Ukraine its future was in the EU, saying Ukraine was part of the “European family”. “Putin will not achieve his goals – not on the battlefield and not through a dictated peace.””

    Now, my dear Olaf, back up those good words with powerful weapons for Ukraine, because without those Putin may achieve his goals.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/09/russia-ukraine-war-at-a-glance-what-we-know-on-day-351-of-the-invasion

  50. The Guardian Sport blog..

    The fantastically named Reverend Frinton Bojangles is in touch:

    “As an England fan, have to acknowledge how good that was – 162-5 to 177 all out is world class…”

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