Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 55, Coalition 40, undecided 5 (open thread)

The latest Essential Research poll finds no indication of weakening support for the government or an Indigenous voice.

Federal voting intention numbers from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll have both parties down a point on the primary vote from a fortnight ago, with Labor at 33% and the Coalition at 30%, with the Greens enjoying a curiously timed three point surge to 17%, One Nation down two to 6% and undecided unchanged at 5%. Presumably reflecting the elevated result for the Greens, Labor is up two on the 2PP+ measure at 55% and the Coalition are down two to 40%, with undecided steady at 5%.

The poll also featured the pollster’s monthly “favourability ratings” for the two leaders, whom respondents rate on a scale of one to ten rather than provide straight approval and disapproval responses. Anthony Albanese’s results were little changed from late November, with 47% rating him seven or higher (up one), 27% from four to six (up one) and 22% from zero to three (down one), while Peter Dutton is respectively at 26% (down two), 31% (down one) and 35% (up two).

Support for an Indigenous voice increased two points to 65% with opposition down two to 35%, while 30% said they felt well informed about the proposal compared with 37% for poorly informed. Forty-three per cent rated that the country was headed in the right direction (down one), compared with 37% for the wrong direction (up one). The 300 respondents from New South Wales were again asked about approval of the state leaders, with Dominic Perrottet up four on approval to 51% and down three on disapproval to 33%, while Chris Minns at is steady at 38% and down two to 25%.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,009 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 55, Coalition 40, undecided 5 (open thread)”

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  1. SNP ‘would overtake Tories in snap Westminster election’
    Exclusive poll of 28,000 people for The Telegraph finds Conservatives would slump to 23 per cent of the vote
    The Conservatives would be relegated to Westminster’s third party behind the Scottish National Party in a snap election, new polling for the Telegraph has found….

  2. From The Guardian:

    “The Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said there was no sign of Russia preparing for peace. “On the contrary, Moscow is preparing for new military offensives,” he said during a joint press conference with the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken.”

    Yes, I believe that. Putin still has enough room to dream about a “final victory”. His problem is that he hasn’t made any major gains so far. And that’s why I keep repeating that the Spring offensive will be decisive for both Ukraine and the war. A victorious Spring-Summer for the Ukrainians will finally tell the Russian Generals and other Men of Influence in Moscow that it’s over and it’s better to end this mess. The usual “geniuses” will be in charge of putting together the most honourable exit strategy possible and there is where the Ukrainians and Western allies should shift to a more helping strategy. Dreaming of total Russian humiliation is not a good idea.

  3. As the origin of humans is going a pretty solid revolution at the moment ( a fascinating topic) it would be a game person who claimed absolute knowledge. Nath stepped up to the plate I see.

    Homo erectus is not Homo sapiens that is for sure.

    But
    https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2011/09/it-wasnt-just-neanderthals-ancient-humans-had-sex-other-hominids/338117/

    Hybrid vigor is something well understood by those involved in breeding commercial animals.

  4. “How much of the anti – Tory vote is racist against Sunak? I reckon some percentage would be racist Tory.”

    Starmer is effectively a tory, he’d be very easy for tory’s to vote for.


  5. Alpo says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 9:37 pm


    Dreaming of total Russian humiliation is not a good idea.


    Perhaps Russia needs a good kick up the ass, it did wonders for Germany and Japan.

  6. I’ll get out my electron microscope to look for a violin small enough to play a tune that expresses the full extent of my sadness at Tudge’s departure from politics: https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/andrew-bolt/alan-tudge-and-his-family-have-been-placed-in-a-mediamoulded-nightmare-barnaby-joyce/video/c16760811fbf1a7688457146cc8c29de

    Will Newscorp apologise to the families of the victims of its many sliming campaigns over the years? For that matter, will Tudge apologise to the families of the victims of Robodebt? Rhetorical questions of course.

    Tudge is a slimeball. The Parliament and the nation are well rid of him from public life.

  7. “poroti says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 9:25 pm
    sprocket_ at 9:19 pm
    Richo is the epitome of NSW Labor . Sadly for the nation he was not an aberration. Vote 1 the Rum Corp .”

    Richo’s times were the times of the Neoliberal-ALP, and yes, NSW is the cradle of Neoliberalism, for both the ALP and the Liberal party… I guess that some residual stuff may still be going around in the NSW ALP, but surely the stench is not nearly as strong as it was in the 1990s-early 2000s.

  8. It’s either, fight or die, for Vladimir Putin.

    Or flight?

    I keep wondering whether he will flee to a sympathetic country in South America, or Africa, or Syria, once he clearly sees the writing on the wall. He seems to know all about making Russian ships go dark. I’m thinking a light plane to somewhere, under the radar, then somewhere else, in small hops, might allow him to make a getaway.

  9. ”How much of the anti – Tory vote is racist against Sunak? I reckon some percentage would be racist Tory.”

    After decades of dogwhistling, racists mostly vote Tory. Mr Sunak must be a real problem for that cohort of Tory voters.

  10. Alpo @ #1162 Thursday, February 9th, 2023 – 9:47 pm

    “poroti says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 9:25 pm
    sprocket_ at 9:19 pm
    Richo is the epitome of NSW Labor . Sadly for the nation he was not an aberration. Vote 1 the Rum Corp .”

    Richo’s times were the times of the Neoliberal-ALP, and yes, NSW is the cradle of Neoliberalism, for both the ALP and the Liberal party… I guess that some residual stuff may still be going around in the NSW ALP, but surely the stench is not nearly as strong as it was in the 1990s-early 2000s.

    It’s not.

    I swear, some people get all excited about the Graham Richardson/Eddie Obeid era, like Americans get excited about Trump.

    It took a while to expunge the vast majority of it, but you can never say never, I guess.


  11. Pi says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 9:44 pm

    frednk: “Homo erectus is not Homo sapiens that is for sure. ”

    The argument is whether they are ‘human’. Which they are. By definition.

    If the definition is the ability to have viable offspring and the genes are found in modern humans then clearly the answer is yes. But what is the definition?

    Not god, machine or animal is clearly not very helpful.

  12. Denis Shanahan is a mind reader now:

    “ “There was a palpable feeling in the House of Representatives of sadness, and
    you could see MPs thinking, ‘yes, my family.

    “I could see Labor members, some thinking, yes, the cost that our families pay
    for their political careers – I think that’s the general message here.”

    _________

    ‘Yes. My family.’ What i think about when I’m shagging my media advisor whilst we both devise ways to legitimise the industrial scale victimisation of the most vulnerable for base political purposes.

    Yep. What Labor MPs were thinking Denis. oh … so so sad for Tudge.

  13. Sprocket. If you go to the Bludger fest in May, and I hope to be there, look me up and ask for some real blood and guts re Richo. The Rum Corp in living colour.

  14. frednk: “If the definition”

    When discussing ‘definitions’, how about sticking with dictionaries, yes?

    https://www.wordnik.com/words/human

    noun A member of the primate genus Homo, especially a member of the species Homo sapiens, distinguished from other apes by a large brain and the capacity for speech.

  15. “Lars Von Trier says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 9:40 pm
    How much of the anti – Tory vote is racist against Sunak? I reckon some percentage would be racist Tory.”

    Oh dear, would you believe it? Now the Tories want to win the next UK general election arguing that if you don’t like Rishi you are a Racist!
    That’s a sign of complete desperation, Lars… tell your mates in the UK not to even try it.

  16. wasnt richardson the reason Eddey obead get a upper house in the first place after the aligations turned out to be true which were reported for years Richardson should had lost his credability plus his many questionable linkseve to a property developer sentensed yet he continues to pop up on sky telling labor how it maust be like the liberals and joining in the myth that some how kenealy was responsible forlabors declins when it was realy him with out himsum one else would have got the upper house spot and labor would be in opposition for 11 years but now he is working for liberal michael photios

  17. “WWP and poroti are both wrong of course.”

    I assume that is both your conclusion and all your supporting evidence in that post.

    Unusually civil of you too.

    Less honest than Morrison and throughly right wing.

    You might be right though a labor leader that won’t support strikes is worse than your bog standard tory.

  18. its suprising he is still presented in the media as powerfull as he has not been a politician foor decades and has speent most of that time attacking labor arguing theyare to progresive yet he is still allowed to be a member of the party

  19. Andrew_Earlwood at 9:54 pm

    WWP and poroti are both wrong of course.

    Naturally, as questioning the perfection of NSW Labor is positively blasphemous .

  20. “C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 9:50 pm”

    Well, you know the NSW ALP a million times better than I do, so I am happy to get your advice on this. My point is mainly about the comparison between the ALP as it was in Richo’s times and as it is right now, under the Minns’ leadership (at the state level) and under Albo’s influence at the federal level.

  21. lvts coment is probaly the worst post today itit is not worth responding to acsept to say Sunack was so popular that first the membership stuck with johnson then first voted foor liz trus before the mps relucdintly finaly backed sunack he was never the pick of the party members so if theydid not eavin want him to be leader how is the publick raceist for making the same judgement

  22. ‘Naturally, as questioning the perfection of NSW Labor is positively blasphemous”

    Starmer has a link to NSW labor? I knew he was a liar and a tory, but I didn’t think he was corrupt and incompetent as well?

  23. AE
    I’m looking at Tudge talking about his family and I’m thinking “he’s got two teenage daughters and a six year old son. I wonder what the property settlement cost him.”
    He’s gunna need a well paid job and given his effort at the RC … well I guess there will be a liberal mate somewhere who will give him a leg up.
    Just as long as they don’t expect him to remember much and don’t mind if he blames everyone else if things go awry.

  24. “ Naturally, as questioning the perfection of NSW Labor is positively blasphemous .”

    Im not sure Sir Keir is a member of NSW Labor. … although Chrissy ‘Anchorman’ Minns is. … you’ll note that I’ve not been backward in my questioning of the bona fides of the bouffant one.

  25. Geetroit @ 3.52pm
    Antony Green notes that last time a Federal Government won a seat off an Opposition in a by-election was 1920.
    ………………………………………………………………………
    Funny that. The last time Australia had a pandemic similar to COVID was in 1920.
    The longer a record stands, the more likely it will be broken, sooner than later.
    I predict that the 102 year old record will not get to 103 years.
    Albo and Labor need to hit the Coalition low and hard and show the voters what an utter rabble Tudge, Morrison, Joshie, Porter et al really were.
    Take no prisoners!

  26. “ Everyone loves a winner AE. You will too if he wins. If. Hard hill to climb.”

    Nope.

    I’ll take some cold comfort in the end of this shitful spivocracy with the defeat of the LNP. That’s assuming that Minns has the gumption to do anything about it structurally. Unlikely given how every meaningful party reform of the past decade was trashed to plant his lazy arse in the foreman’s seat.

  27. Could people take a bit more care to correctly reference p1 vs pi?

    Not doing so confuses the heck out of the less intelligent posters here, such as ALPo.

  28. “frednk says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 9:43 pm
    Perhaps Russia needs a good kick up the ass, it did wonders for Germany and Japan.”

    Fred a German/Japanese-1945-style humiliation for Russia in 2023 is just an impossibility. Even beyond the issue of the nuclear arsenals, there is the invasion of the Russian territory if you want to subjugate them in the way the Germans and Japanese were subjugated…. That’s pure madness. It won’t happen. The West only needs to help Ukraine kick the Russians out of Ukranian territory. That’s feasible, even if Putin is telling himself and his generals that it won’t happen.

  29. “Player One says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 10:18 pm
    Could people take a bit more care to correctly reference p1 vs pi?

    Not doing so confuses the heck out of the less intelligent posters here, such as ALPo.”

    My dear Pooh1, as you know it’s very easy for everybody here: Pooh1 vs Piss.
    Where is the confusion? Just in your head…

  30. NSW Right General Secretaries since 1980 – Richardson, Loosley, Della Bosca, Roozendahl, Arbib, Bitar, Thistlethwaite, Dastyari, Clements, Murnain, Nanva, ?

    Disgraced in one form or another – six of them. Two or three more probably got lucky.

    Ethics aside, competent political operators and campaign managers – six (Richardson, Loosley, Della Bosca, Roozendahl, Arbib, Dastyari). The rest barely adequate.

    Trend line, down, down, down.

  31. … and given that the interest seems to have shifted to NSW politics, let’s recap the polling results for the coming NSW state election for the month of January (2013):

    Pollster…………………………..Coalition…….ALP…..Greens…….SFF…….Others………2PP
    Resolve Strategic……………..34%…………..37%……12%……….2%……….16%…………NA
    YouGov……………………………..33%…………..39%……11%……….NA…………17%…….44% Coalition vs 56% ALP

    As far as polling results are concerned… so far, so good.
    🙂

  32. “nath says:
    Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 10:40 pm”

    Are you still on that topic nuts? About which you know absolutely nothing, alongside your other little mates?… We have all moved on, join us and contribute something to justify your poor salary.

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