Federal voting intention numbers from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll have both parties down a point on the primary vote from a fortnight ago, with Labor at 33% and the Coalition at 30%, with the Greens enjoying a curiously timed three point surge to 17%, One Nation down two to 6% and undecided unchanged at 5%. Presumably reflecting the elevated result for the Greens, Labor is up two on the 2PP+ measure at 55% and the Coalition are down two to 40%, with undecided steady at 5%.
The poll also featured the pollster’s monthly “favourability ratings” for the two leaders, whom respondents rate on a scale of one to ten rather than provide straight approval and disapproval responses. Anthony Albanese’s results were little changed from late November, with 47% rating him seven or higher (up one), 27% from four to six (up one) and 22% from zero to three (down one), while Peter Dutton is respectively at 26% (down two), 31% (down one) and 35% (up two).
Support for an Indigenous voice increased two points to 65% with opposition down two to 35%, while 30% said they felt well informed about the proposal compared with 37% for poorly informed. Forty-three per cent rated that the country was headed in the right direction (down one), compared with 37% for the wrong direction (up one). The 300 respondents from New South Wales were again asked about approval of the state leaders, with Dominic Perrottet up four on approval to 51% and down three on disapproval to 33%, while Chris Minns at is steady at 38% and down two to 25%.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1000.
If Pi is too confusing for some people, feel free to use my real name:
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Rossmcg: “Just as long as they don’t expect him to remember much and don’t mind if he blames everyone else if things go awry.”
Are you kidding? That skillset is in high demand. PwC might be looking for partners?
That can’t be your name. Pi is irrational.
”Pi is irrational.” What, like a member of the Religious Right?
ar: “That can’t be your name. Pi is irrational.”
Why thankyou.
Is Tudge quitting politicvs as a move to ensure he keeps his pension etc? If I recall correctly, there was a loop hole for politicians to retain their pension regardless if they have quit? Anyone know?
.
I’m surprised that William hasn’t stepped in and stopped it. It’s pretty childish behaviour.
Someone did Bystander. You might want to delete that one, or at least not quote it. Both posts are removed. tis a well tended garden is pollbludger.
EDIT: alas, some are still struggling with the concept.
Nanva has been posibly the most invisable nsw labor secretary if he is elected to parliamenti it is hard to know what he would do apart from being a union oficial has he dun any thing else
“It was fun anyway…”
Mate. It was pathetic.
“German politicians and military chiefs suggest return of conscription”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/09/german-politicians-and-military-chiefs-suggest-return-of-conscription
Hmmm…. That doesn’t sound like a good idea at all.
The msm are setting this up as a “test” for Dutton, as they’re pretty sure Labor can’t win Tudges seat. So then he’ll “pass” the test.
It’s a bit of BS really. And narratives have a funny way of taking their own path.
“Zelenskiy wants jets. The west should think very carefully before giving them to him”
Interesting article by Simon Jenkins in The Guardian.
Yes, jets may be a problem. In my view, the major problem they would pose for a potential escalation of the conflict (which nobody in the West wants) is that they will give the possibility to the Ukrainian forces to attack deep inside Russian territory, which still can be done with missiles of course, but jets provide greater maneuverability and degrees of freedom to shift targets, etc. I don’t think that the Western allies of Ukraine want that to happen. The point is to help Ukraine to the extent that the Russians will be pushed out of the country, in order to cut their losses short, having kept all their original (pre-war) territory mainly protected from the effects of the war.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/09/zelenskiy-jets-west-ukraine-battlefield-peace
Alpo describes socialists as ‘far left.’ Using the same language as dear Peta Credlin et al. What a right winger he is.
“… Angus Taylor, asked his department to consider delaying telling voters about electricity price rises before the May election, then made the decision to do so.”
“… Scott Morrison, was informed by treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, that he had given Taylor power to delay notification of the price rise.“
I’m shocked, I tell you: shocked!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/10/angus-taylor-behind-decision-to-delay-energy-price-rise-report-until-after-2022-election
‘… Renee Leon, then secretary of the Department of Human Services, wrote to the federal [ombudsman] on 9 March 2019 …’
‘… Leon wrote that she was “concerned that your comments clearly imply that there is doubt as to the legality of the EIC [earned income compliance] system”, but the department’s view was “the legal position in relation to the program is not uncertain”.‘
(Leon is now vice-chancellor of Charles Sturt University …)
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/09/email-reveals-top-bureaucrat-pressed-ombudsman-to-delete-comments-questioning-robodebts-legality
Late to the party as usual.
I suppose HMAS Chocolate Starfish would be a bit shit.
HMAS Tamam Shud would look cool shooting the waves man.
And HMAS Sebastian Hardie might operate for Four Moments.
Clem Atlee @ 9.35am
Agree.
I can only make judgement regarding Michelle Rowland from her parliamentary and Question Time performance.
She may be a confident and effective local member.
My perception, from what I have observed, is that she appears to be a rather ineffectual minister and that she we would not be a great loss to the ministry.
However, I doubt whether she was aware of any donation from Sportsbet or any other donor to her campaign fund.
Using a ye olde U-2 spy plane to “scrutinise” the balloon before shooting it down – now that’s funny.
Chinese balloon was ‘clearly’ for spying, says US official
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/09/chinese-balloon-spying-state-department
‘Gina Rinehart’s company … was behind a $150,000 payment to the Liberal Party, transferred via a third party, and not declared by the mining giant …’
‘An email between two Sydney Mining Club employees … noted the money was not to be transferred to the club’s “high interest account” because “150k will be going straight out to the liberal party”.’
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-10/hancock-prospecing-to-liberal-party-sydney-mining-club/101915486
Good editorial by The Guardian here on the war in Ukraine:
“The Guardian view on arms for Ukraine: a battlefield race against time”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/09/the-guardian-view-on-arms-for-ukraine-a-battlefield-race-against-time
It’s clear that the war will end only when enough Russian soldiers have been killed, for somebody inside Russia to tell Putin to stop the carnage and withdraw, or to remove him and replace him with a more rational person. Hopefully, that will happen sooner than later, this year, and of course the weaponry that the West will supply the Ukrainians with will be crucial.
Burt Bacharach, the legendary composer of hits such as Say a Little Prayer and Walk on By, has died at the age of 94. According to a statement given to the Associated Press by his publicist Tina Brausman, Bacharach died on Wednesday at his home in Los Angeles of natural causes. Born in 1928 in Kansas City, Missouri, Bacharach won six Grammys and three Oscars and recorded 73 top 40 hits in the US and 52 in the UK.
“clem attlee says:
Friday, February 10, 2023 at 12:20 am
Alpo describes socialists as ‘far left.’ Using the same language as dear Peta Credlin et al. What a right winger he is.”
I am a Social Democrat, and therefore centre-left. For your information, a centre-left person these days is a Keynesian, mixed-economy capitalist who contrasts him/herself with the right-wing Neoliberalism and the far-left Marxism. You are welcome to read the thousands of my old posts that are available on the archives of The Guardian and Independent Australia, alongside my contributions here. There is enough to write a couple of doctoral theses at least.
If you call yourself a Socialist and define your views as Marxist then yes, you are far left. Which party I describe as far left in Australia? Answer: the Marxist Socialist Alliance!
Go and think about all that….
… News from the Land of the Freeish:
“Biden says Republicans ‘dream’ of Medicare and social security cuts: ‘Well, I’m your nightmare’ ”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2023/feb/09/biden-social-security-medicare-florida-republicans-desantis-live-updates
Not bad for a “senescent” man who is in the “pockets of the multinationals”, eh?
Oliver Sutton @ #1215 Friday, February 10th, 2023 – 4:33 am
The Coalition have got all the credibility of George Santos.
frednk
‘If the definition is the ability to have viable offspring and the genes are found in modern humans then clearly the answer is yes. But what is the definition?’
The definition is correct BUT if ‘he genes are found in modern humans then clearly the answer is yes’ is not.
Scientists regard distance in time as meaning that it’s not possible to have viable offspring.
Shared DNA also does not equal past matings. DNA can be inherited from a common ancestor, for example (we share DNA with other primates; we can’t have viable offspring with them).
As for the rest — horses are in the family ‘equus’ but not all creatures n the family ‘equus’ are horses.
All members of the family equus have common DNA but that does not mean any of them mated successfully with each other in the past – it simply means they share a common ancestry. (And if they did meet today could probably not mate successfully).
In the case of humans, we talk about other hominid species as if they are ancestors. The chances are that they aren’t, it’s just convenient short hand.
A homo erectus found out of Africa is very unlikely to be an ancestor – they would have had to travel back to Africa to be so.
(I’ve done a lot of reading on paleoanthropology and have to say it’s one of those areas where a little knowledge makes you doubt some of the conclusions – there are some very sloppy thinkers in the field…)
“The Republican-dominated Mississippi house of representatives has passed a bill to create a separate, unelected court system in the city of Jackson that would fall outside the purview of the city’s voters, the majority of whom are Black.
The bill, which local leaders have likened to apartheid-era laws and described as unconstitutional, would also expand a separate capitol police force, overseen by state authorities. The force would expand into all of the city’s white-majority neighborhoods, according to Mississippi Today. Jackson’s population is over 80% Black.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/08/jackson-mississippi-republicans-unelected-court-system
Hey, wait a minute, according to the usual idiots, some of whom post here, it’s the Democrats who are a danger to American “democracy”… Pissing on somebody’s deep beliefs is regarded as very “bad taste” in some quarters….
We’re all forgetting the whole point of AUKUS in the first place:
HMAS Spin Doctors
Chinese balloon part of huge spy program, US officials say
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2023/feb/09/biden-social-security-medicare-florida-republicans-desantis-live-updates
The Defence department has said that they have detected no balloons over Australia.
zoomster: “A homo erectus found out of Africa is very unlikely to be an ancestor – they would have had to travel back to Africa to be so. ”
Ya got source for that zoomster? Methinks ya don’t, cuz that’s not true. The geneology of humanity has long since intertwined, many times over, from all edges of where we spread from. We are just as likely to have a common ancestor from Indonesia, China, or Europe. In fact, all humans have common ancestors from everywhere. When scientists say that humans came from Africa (still a bit of debate on that BTW) they are talking about homo-erectus. No-one knows where homo-sapiens first gained a foothold. The start of ‘civilization’ is generally thought to be where India is today. And that time since the birth of ‘civilization’ is the tiniest little fraction of humanity.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/feb/09/ukraine-athletes-ioc-of-kowtowing-to-russia-paris-olympics-2024
HMAS Lubricated Goat?
Slippery l’il f****er
Geetroit @ #836 Friday, February 10th, 2023 – 7:03 am
Slips through the water with the greatest of ease and can go anywhere. 😀
Hah!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/09/crazy-interesting-findings-by-australian-researchers-may-reveal-key-to-covid-immunity
Poor old Bob Nanva. Desperate for the job. Did all he could to big himself up for it. His supporters the same. Then it was let me out of here. But give me something first. Its a real shame.
I keep seeing posts about a bludger fest in May? Is this a PB conference or event or something. What are the details?
Pi
As I said, carrying similar DNA does not tell you much. Of course all modern humans share similar DNA, as they have 100% shared ancestry.
As for references, here’s one from a source you used earlier –
‘H. sapiens is thought to have evolved in Africa. ‘
…with a pretty thorough catalogue of the oldest known remains, all from Africa.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/Homo-sapiens/Origin
Noting the comments on sourcing the other day, some of you may find Retraction Watch of interest, https://retractionwatch.com/.
Leaderboard, https://retractionwatch.com/the-retraction-watch-leaderboard/
Or here’s a story based upon it, https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/the-top-retractions-of-2020-68284
I note intel services have a whole grading system for evaluating intel, based on source, method, likelihood, verifiability etc, though this is from Wiki, 🙂 , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_source_and_information_reliability, not that that stopped …
“Pi says:
Friday, February 10, 2023 at 7:00 am
zoomster: “A homo erectus found out of Africa is very unlikely to be an ancestor – they would have had to travel back to Africa to be so. ”
Ya got source for that zoomster? Methinks ya don’t, cuz that’s not true. The geneology of humanity has long since intertwined, many times over, from all edges of where we spread from. We are just as likely to have a common ancestor from Indonesia, China, or Europe. In fact, all humans have common ancestors from everywhere.”
Still pissing against the wind on topics you don’t know anything about? The African origin of Homo sapiens is as strong as it gets, and it comes from both fossil evidence and DNA evidence. You are welcome to read Ayala and Cela-Conde’s (2018) book: “Processes in Human Evolution”. From Africa, H. sapiens then migrated elsewhere (e.g. to Europe; Asia) in different waves over time.
zoomster: “As I said, carrying similar DNA does not tell you much.”
Sure it does. It tells you that common ancestors are spread across millions of years.
From YOUR source zoomster;
“No consensus has developed on exactly where this find fits into the human family tree (or, more appropriately, “family bush”), but, even if it is a hominin, it is highly unlikely to be a direct ancestor of H. sapiens.”
If you bothered to read your source, you’d find it confirms what I said.
“Historically, this process has been considered a more or less direct series of assumed improvements within a single lineage that eventually culminated in the burnished “perfection” of H. sapiens. As flattering to the modern human ego as this picture may be, it is evidently quite wrong. Instead, human evolution has been throughout its long history a matter of experimentation, with new species being constantly spawned and thrown into the ecological arena to compete and, more often than not, become extinct. Viewed this way, H. sapiens is simply the last surviving twig on a vast and intricately branching bush, rather than the sole occupant of a summit that has been laboriously climbed and, by extension, somehow earned.”
“Once modern human body proportions had been achieved, such species could indulge their newfound wanderlust. By about 1.8 mya hominins, previously confined to Africa, had roamed as far afield as China and Indonesia.”
…and, as I’ve said, homo erectus may not even be an ancestor.
We tend to look at genealogies in linear terms (A led to B led to C led to D) but evolution isn’t that tidy.
Most ‘family trees’ for species are bushy, with numerous end points (a bit like if you did a true map of the descendants of one of your ancestors – there’d be various branches leading to Smiths, Cooks, Jones and possibly Ngs and Shahs. Some branches would end with no descendants at all).
Ours has one end point – us.
That’s incredibly unusual, and leads to linear thinking (“X has human characteristics, therefore X is a human ancestor” when at most it should be “X has human characteristics, therefore X is part of the family tree. We may not be descendant from X.’)
We should expect our family tree to be just as messy as that of any other modern species, including ones which looked similar, shared some DNA and yet were not able to interbreed with our ancestors.
One for zoomster:
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/feb/09/discovery-ancient-stone-tools-prehistoric-mystery-whodunnit
Pi
Um, yes, it does confirm my arguments (our posts overlapped, but mine says what your extracts say).
As it pretty clearly says, human evolution is not linear and we can’t assume that just because we’ve found a hominid that shares characteristics with us, that it’s an ancestor.
Thank you.
zoomster says:
Friday, February 10, 2023 at 6:41 am
zoomster, you need to look at the current papers, not what is being written in books. The whole field is going through a revolution. As to DNA still being there. They are well past knowing if it is before or after a supposed split, that is what is causing the revolution. Assumption based on bones is not being supported by DNA studies.
Boer
A few decades ago statements such as ‘Only humans can make tools’ were accepted truths — and clearly wrong!
Thanks for the article.
The dimension of the earthquake tragedy in Turkey and Syria is pretty shocking:
“Turkey-Syria earthquake: death toll passes 20,000 as rescue efforts enter fourth night – latest news”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/feb/09/earthquake-turkey-syria-in-turkiye-2023-live-updates-latest-news-maps-quake-death-toll-kahramanmaras
frednk
I will accept that admonition.
“Rather than a tree with separate branches or a trellis, human evolution was probably more like a braided stream, a concept traced to paleoanthropologist Xinzhi Wu of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing, who used a river metaphor to describe patterns of human evolution in China. ”
https://geneticliteracyproject.org/2021/09/28/the-notion-of-humankinds-african-origins-unifies-researchers-human-evolution-is-like-a-braided-stream-fossil-and-dna-evidence-suggests/
“zoomster says:
Friday, February 10, 2023 at 7:29 am
Boer
A few decades ago statements such as ‘Only humans can make tools’ were accepted truths — and clearly wrong!
Thanks for the article.”
Tool use and tool making has been known even in wild chimpanzees for at least three decades now.
Just as an example, have a look at:
Boesch and Boesch (1990). PDF available here:
https://www.eva.mpg.de/fileadmin/content_files/staff/boesch/pdf/fol_prim_tool_use_making.pdf
us.
The big question, what is us? It is now becoming clear that different locations have different percentages of Neanderthal genes. They are now arguing there was gross mating between us and erectus.