Federal voting intention numbers from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll have both parties down a point on the primary vote from a fortnight ago, with Labor at 33% and the Coalition at 30%, with the Greens enjoying a curiously timed three point surge to 17%, One Nation down two to 6% and undecided unchanged at 5%. Presumably reflecting the elevated result for the Greens, Labor is up two on the 2PP+ measure at 55% and the Coalition are down two to 40%, with undecided steady at 5%.
The poll also featured the pollster’s monthly “favourability ratings” for the two leaders, whom respondents rate on a scale of one to ten rather than provide straight approval and disapproval responses. Anthony Albanese’s results were little changed from late November, with 47% rating him seven or higher (up one), 27% from four to six (up one) and 22% from zero to three (down one), while Peter Dutton is respectively at 26% (down two), 31% (down one) and 35% (up two).
Support for an Indigenous voice increased two points to 65% with opposition down two to 35%, while 30% said they felt well informed about the proposal compared with 37% for poorly informed. Forty-three per cent rated that the country was headed in the right direction (down one), compared with 37% for the wrong direction (up one). The 300 respondents from New South Wales were again asked about approval of the state leaders, with Dominic Perrottet up four on approval to 51% and down three on disapproval to 33%, while Chris Minns at is steady at 38% and down two to 25%.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1000.
If Ukraine had kept the nuclear weapons, would they have been able to have maintained them and use them?
poroti at 11.28 am
Why didn’t Sportsbet donate to Shorten? They called him the winner in 2019.
”
Mavissays:
Friday, February 10, 2023 at 9:56 am
Ven, good to see you back posting.
”
Mavis
I really did not want to. But seeing that we were diversifying into fields like Anthropology and HMAS name calling I had to come back.
note the double standards all this fake outrage buy the media desperate in there failed campaign to undermine labor on integrity it is labor that backed in a ficac against liberal party opposition thethe story of Charlie taylordisapeared same with Stuart robbert aranging meetings with minister to benafit a cumpany get government contracts where is Wilkie demanding he resign as shadow minister in charge of financial survices the media completely droped it plus charlie tayler being federal liberal treasurer apoointed to lead a independent review
“FMD. If Rowland was a Minister in a Liberal government,especially SfM’s, there would have been a clamour in the Bludger Lounge calling for her to resign or return the money.”
Those who most hate the ‘same same’ perspective seem most keen to minimise the difference and minimise the standards.
If the voting public still awake to the corrupt behaviour by the media , they will notice this
NSW state election next month
Majority of the media is silent on Robodebt royal commission and other dodgy matters which involves Lib/nats
the media will propaganda against Labor Party members .
And since there will be by-election in Aston soon , the media will continue to repeat its corruption right up to when the Aston By-election is held
Simon Henny Penny Katich @ Friday, February 10, 2023 at 11:39 am:
“If Ukraine had kept the nuclear weapons, would they have been able to have maintained them and use them?”
================
Interesting counterfactual. Ukraine was certainly in one heck of an economic hole in the 1990’s – and still was to a lesser degree in 2021. (For the obvious reason, they are back to behind square one again right now.) So was Russia, so I would say the appropriate prior to go with would be “as able as Russia has (or has not) proven to be”.
But we are in very speculative territory here. It is possible that Ukraine’s possession of a Soviet legacy nuclear arsenal would have given the US and EU a very strong incentive to provide Ukraine with considerable financial and technical support to maintain that arsenal. This, in turn, might have enmeshed Ukraine much more strongly within the EU/NATO much sooner. Then, it is highly unlikely Russia would have attacked Ukraine’s sovereignty the way they have since 2014.
Whatever we decide on this question, though, the fact remains that the US and UK gave Ukraine security guarantees in return for Ukrainian nuclear disarmament. They ought to redeem their failure to honour that guarantee they gave then in this war now.
Rowland has taken a legal donation, when in opposition and disclosed it..
Lets compare it to the totally secret 1 million dollar Porter ‘legal trust’…… taken when he was a minister, with the donors completely unknown.
Global inflation is still very high but looks to have peaked. Global goods inflation is starting to decline, as supply chains improve and other upstream cost pressures ease; global energy prices have also stopped rising. However, services inflation remains high in many advanced economies, driven by resilient demand and rising labour costs. Most central banks have continued raising policy interest rates in order to return inflation to target. As tighter policy takes hold on demand, services inflation should also begin to ease.
China’s approach to containing COVID-19 was reversed abruptly in mid-December. The disruptions from the last phase of restrictions in November and the wave of illness in the following month led to weak activity in the December quarter. Since then, though, the Chinese economy has recovered quickly. Together with the Chinese authorities’ shift to a more growth-focused policy stance, the earlier opening of the Chinese economy has brought forward its recovery from what had previously been expected. This has added to growth in global demand in the near term, especially for some industrial commodities, and so is supporting Australia’s terms of trade and national income.
As is the case elsewhere, inflation in Australia is too high and is broadly based. CPI inflation reached 7.8 per cent over the year to the December quarter. Trimmed mean inflation was 6.9 per cent over the same period, which was higher than had been expected. The easing in global goods price pressures is not yet evident in retail prices here; consumer durables price inflation picked up in the December quarter, especially for clothing and vehicles. Services inflation also reached very high rates, with the prices of market services 7 per cent higher over the year. Rental markets are tight and growth in rents has been picking up.
Inflation is likely to have peaked around the end of 2022 and is forecast to return to the target range over coming years. The central forecast is for CPI inflation to decline to 4¾ per cent over 2023 and to around 3 per cent by mid-2025. The easing in global price pressures already underway is expected to flow through to domestic prices over time. In addition, slower growth in domestic demand and a moderation in labour market conditions are expected to reduce domestic inflationary pressures. The inflation forecasts have been revised up a little in the short term in light of recent stronger outcomes, but further out inflation is expected to be a touch lower than previously forecast. This reflects recent policy changes that have reduced the size of the expected increases in domestic electricity prices over 2023.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2023/feb/overview.html
Example of the media corrupt behaviour
Why is the media who focussing on Michelle Rowlands , not pressuring Dominic Perrottet to resign
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/09/liberal-donor-brother-of-angus-taylor-appointed-to-independent-nsw-body-by-coalition
Dominic Perrottet has defended his government’s appointment of a senior Liberal official – who made thousands of dollars in political donations to the party – as the chair of a New South Wales productivity council set up to provide independent advice on innovation.
After the previous government reneged on a deal with France, I’d be a bit worried on France reneging on us out of spite. I’d also be worried about alienating the UK and US – AUKUS is a done deal and those two countries are our longest term allies anyway. We can whine about what Morrison and co did but they did it.
For those interested in the contemporary situation around the Soviet nuclear weapons in Ukraine at the time of the Soviet Union’s break-up, I suggest this episode of Jeffrey Lewis’ podcast: https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1215097/deterrence-in-ukraine/
Wilkie might want to start focusing on his seat in stead ofcontinuing as a anti labor independent he clearly iscloser to the liberals while claiming to be a progresive had no problim with liberal donations Stauart robbertsmany conflicts but the first chance he gets to attack labor the old same same rubish he takes this was after the media failed to damage albanese buyclaiming he took to many vover seas trips then they used the covid chinarat tests to triy and repair the damage dutton had dun with chinease voters but that back fired in les then 24 hours when us uk japan followed and wold health organization backed the sensable desition now its a culture war on gambling atempting to claim labor is owned buy gambling
”
Aaron newtonsays:
Friday, February 10, 2023 at 11:28 am
tim costellow is clearly a liberal party acdevist he has no problim with the caseno no body was asking foor desbite actual money laaundering being uncovered not the vague n s w crime comition report saying money laundering could be occuring in pockies
”
Tim Costello is brother of Peter Costello, who is the head of 9Fax entertainment group which publishes SMH, Age and broadcaster of 2GB. SMH Alex Smith is writing stories on cashless card to be used in Casinos, which is idea of DoPe
Enough said.
Ven wrote, “you cannot drop her from ministry because there is perception of conflict of interest. In that case Move her to another ministry.”
Maybe not, but it does serve as an excuse to get rid of a hopeless performer. Though to truly achieve anything, one would need to ditch the totality of the NSW centre right faction.
mean while robo debt is a real scandle that tudge must have known about interestingly when morrison became pm he was shifted to population where he made little impact
Sportsbet donated $145,000- to the Coalition and $135,000- to the ALP
Fancy business donating to the ALP
Except most do albeit less than they donate to the ALP
Some banks no longer donate – to either Party
And that is before you get to Chairs – eg ANZ Banking Group – being Liberal Party members and on the Board of Cormack
Then you have the Chairs of media companies being Liberal Party members (with clout), starting with Costello, Stokes and Murdoch
Simply, political parties (and Independents) require funds, those funds attracted by seeking donations including at fund raising events
Those donating may present positions (Palmer) but the positions they promote may not be the outcome
They are however party to presentation – and the ultimate resolution
Gambling is a very big industry in Australia – witness the advertising- because it has an audience (so people who gamble including on election outcomes)
Some can afford to bet, others not so much
Bit the same with alcohol
Some can drink alcohol responsibly, others not so much (as current publicity informs)
Then you have politics where (as an example) Bail laws were delayed because an election was imminent and the change in Laws would become a political issue during the course of an election (so opposed by the Coalition and their media for perceived electoral appeal – and there is the irony)
”
Simon Henny Penny Katichsays:
Friday, February 10, 2023 at 11:39 am
If Ukraine had kept the nuclear weapons, would they have been able to have maintained them and use them?
”
I don’t know about that. But Putin would not have attacked Ukraine.
rowland as well as communications minister is also N S W labor party president it is perhaps this story is more designed to convince voters of the perseption that nsw labor is some how to influenced with gambling how evernot much evidence egzists to support the heralds campaign foor example labor set up the upper house committy in to berangeroo they dont want to talk about the health system and shortige of school teachers
rowland is also low profile and does not do many interviews the media likes to portray ministerswho dont do regular media as lazy forgetting that there is more to being a minister then just appearing on sky news
C@tmomma says:
Friday, February 10, 2023 at 10:04 am
Yes, Ven, that cartoon was posted earlier.
Worth posting again IMO.
It looks like Marles has been sucked in big time.
”
WeWantPaulsays:
Friday, February 10, 2023 at 11:42 am
“FMD. If Rowland was a Minister in a Liberal government,especially SfM’s, there would have been a clamour in the Bludger Lounge calling for her to resign or return the money.”
Those who most hate the ‘same same’ perspective seem most keen to minimise the difference and minimise the standards.
”
WWP
Was Rowland Communications spokesperson in opposition?
Major offensives usually have these attributes:
1. Attrition phase to take defensive parts of the Front out of play. Dnipro. Tick.
2. Psywar. Tick.
3. Massive artillery and missilery preparation. Tick.
4. Troops, equipment, munitions and food massed in depth. Tick.
5. Suitable conditions for mass movement? Hard, or frozen ground.
6. Attacks along a broad front or attacks on several broad fronts.?
Good points made by Robert Reich in The Guardian:
“Joe Biden has steadied the nation – why don’t his polling numbers reflect this?”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/09/biden-state-of-the-union-polling-numbers
One thing it’s the macroeconomic indicators, which may be truly good, and a very different thing is the lived experience of most Americans (or Australians, as the argument is valid whichever country we are talking about). Therefore, in order for Progressive, Social Democratic governments to truly attract the sustained support of the majority of voters (in spite of a media war against them), they must deliver real results for the people and deliver them in a sustained way, not just as a one-off.
If Biden’s and the Democrats’ policies keep improving the lives of the majority of Americans, he can be the Democratic party candidate in 2024 and smash whoever the Republicans put in front of him.
Venn @11.57pm.
Thanks Venn, you have beaten me to posting a similar comment.
It is about time for Aaron to do a couple (many) fact checks before he posts any more of his ill-informed drivel regarding Tim Costello and Andrew Wilkie.
After the way his precious princess, Julia, treated Wilkie in regard for parliamentary support, Aaron should feel fortunate that Wilkie supports any part of the ALP Government agenda.
By the way, Aaron, Andrew Wilkie is the member with the 2nd highest margin (20.82%) in the current parliament – a once safe Labor seat.
A longer-term cost of Russia’s unjustified invasion and occupation upon the people of Ukraine:
“A quarter of Ukrainians are at risk of developing a severe mental health condition as the country grapples with the year-long Russian invasion, a special adviser to the World Health Organization said.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/10/russia-ukraine-war-at-a-glance-what-we-know-on-day-352-of-the-invasion
For those dissing the Aussie cricketers … we were 2 for 84 before the 3rd wicket fell. Only 1 wicket behind what the Indians are now. There’s nothing to say we can’t emulate their 2nd session heroics in our second session bowling.
That said — the pitch and anti-inflammatory cream on the ball yesterday … yes I am an absolute tragic!
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cafsays:
Friday, February 10, 2023 at 11:54 am
For those interested in the contemporary situation around the Soviet nuclear weapons in Ukraine at the time of the Soviet Union’s break-up, I suggest this episode of Jeffrey Lewis’ podcast: https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1215097/deterrence-in-ukraine/
”
caf
I did not see the podcast but I know the reason why Ukraine was forced to relinquish its nuclear arsenal
1. US, UK and other European countries were afraid that Ukraine would not safeguarded them properly and effectively allowing terrorists to get hold of them.
2. They never envisaged or didn’t want to envisage that Russia would oneday attack Ukraine.
3. Other than the 5 permanent UN security council members, they did not want anyone else to have nuclear arsenal although they did not mind one particular middle-eastern country having them.
Why? Because they want to control the world.
“Reserve Bank causing households ‘too much pain’ with rate rises, says union chief Sally McManus”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/09/reserve-bank-causing-households-too-much-pain-with-rate-rises-says-union-chief-sally-mcmanus
I couldn’t agree more, Sally. And the pain is caused by the obtuse allegiance of the RBA to the Neoliberal crap. When Lowe goes this year, the Government must take the opportunity to press for a significant change in philosophical direction within the RBA, or the ALP’s “Values-based Capitalism” will just be remembered with derision by future generations.
“That said — the pitch and anti-inflammatory cream on the ball yesterday … yes I am an absolute tragic!”
Look, be kind, and give Jadeja a break.
No one want to see a swollen red ball.
Enough Already @ #1407 Friday, February 10th, 2023 – 11:19 am
One of us doesnt understand the meaning of counterfactual. Probably me as I didnt do very well at HSC English.
I wasnt just talking about cost. There are other practicalities. But I think Russia, even just after the fall of the USSR, were more than economically capable of maintaining and controlling the core of their arsenal.
There is no way the US, EU, NATO would have aided Ukraine in taking control of and maintaining their nuclear weapons at that time. For many reasons. Their political instability is just one. Saying Ukraine would have become closer to the EU if this happened is removing Ukrainian agency in this speculaiton. The closeness (or lack of) has a lot to do with Ukraine. There was a lot of ProRussia sentiment in Ukraine for a lot of the post independent period. And saying Russia wouldnt have invaded if Ukraine had them is also speculative. Putin may have had a way of nullifying that threat.
What I find strange is the insinuation that the West has failed in its obligations. Short of WW3, they have done a lot to help Ukraine. More is clearly and urgently needed now Russia have more fully mobilised – but we arent talking significant escalation, just additional resources along the lines of that already given and already promised. Weapons, tanks, vehicles, equipment, clothing, finances, medical, engineering, stronger and tighter sanctions…. It is wise to speak softly of this additional assistance but step it up at the some time.
“Enough Already says:
Friday, February 10, 2023 at 12:08 pm”
The post-war reconstruction effort in Ukraine will have to be absolutely massive. But then, why is Putin using that scorched earth approach if he plans to annex those disputed regions of Eastern Ukraine?…. Perhaps, perhaps he knows that he will lose and just wants to make the “pain of victory” for Ukraine bigger?
Hmmm
IOC President, Thomas Bach, is another world figure doing Putin’s propaganda bidding, because he is personally close to him:
“Vladimir Putin and Thomas Bach: the unlikely Olympic power couple
… When Bach exited the auditorium in the Buenos Aires Hilton having been anointed president, a position he had targeted for decades, a phone was thrust into his hand and the first person to offer his congratulations was Vladimir Putin. …
… When Bach was elected, it was widely speculated that Putin’s support was a key factor. …
… Shortly before the Sochi Games got under way, amid concerns over human rights and the grotesque cost and corruption that came with the huge price tag, Bach praised Putin’s “great commitment” to the Games and the way he “set the pace in this great endeavour”. At the closing ceremony, Bach stood shoulder to shoulder with Putin and declared the most expensive Games in history “a real special experience”. He also personally thanked Putin for his contribution to the “extraordinary success of these Winter Games”
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/jul/25/rio-olympics-russia-drugs-vladimir-putin-ioc
Bach should redeem himself for his Sochi Putin-loving shame by quashing rumours the IOC will allow Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete at the 2024 Paris Games.
Scott says:
Friday, February 10, 2023 at 8:07 am
This comment is sickening
Rachelle Miller
@rachellejmiller
·
11h
Of course I’m deeply sorry for victims. I volunteered my story to #RobodebtRC to ensure it NEVER happens again. I’m acutely aware of my role, and I heard victims speak, which moved me to act. But I needed my job. I also had a huge debt to pay off. We do what we have to…
———————————————————————————————
Imagine if everybody applied Ms Millers morals. She’s little better than Tudge imo and lacking moral fibre.
Dandy Murray @ #1430 Friday, February 10th, 2023 – 11:48 am
Balls have sores and feelings too.
Went to the pharmacist today and the chap infront got some Vaseline and I wondered why the pharmacist didnt give it to me off the back of his hand why trying to look nonchalant about it.
JenAuthor
Please package that optimism and send it to Nagpur, asap.
Whatever happens, we are an ancient team and some trimming of the old guard is necessary.
Todd Murphy looks like a vastly better bowler than Lyon already, which presumably means that Lyon will be picked ahead of him for the indefinite future.
Can someone show Dandy Murray the door? 😆
Torchbearersays:
Friday, February 10, 2023 at 11:50 am
Rowland has taken a legal donation, when in opposition and disclosed it.
_____________________
You might want to double check she disclosed it. A link would be nice.
Here we go again,
Thanks for the comparison of donations to Labor and the Liberals by Sportsbet before the last election. Funny how we haven’t heard Tim Costello and the X Benchers bewailing the fact that the Liberals got more than Labor?
Oh, that’s right, they will likely justify it by using that old chestnut that the Liberals aren’t in power. 🙄
TaylorMade,
Every donation must be disclosed by law. But then, being a Liberal, that concept is elastic I guess. 😉
Ven says:
Friday, February 10, 2023 at 11:35 am
SHPK
“………….
Now, the important issue is – how many months should Jadeja and Kholi be been banned for ball tampering?
”
Did they tamper? I didn’t know that.
———————————————
They must have. How else could the team that is so good that it doesn’t need a coach be knocked over so easily.
There must have been something underhand – or under-arm?
Simon Henny Penny Katich @ Friday, February 10, 2023 at 12:19 pm:
====================
SHPK, first just quickly on “counterfactual”: “relating to or expressing what has not happened or is not the case.” In this case, hypothesising how events would have developed had Ukraine kept its nuclear arsenal in the 1990’s.
Secondly: “There is no way the US, EU, NATO would have aided Ukraine in taking control of and maintaining their nuclear weapons at that time.” Your paragraph here presents a good argument against the possibility I mentioned. I going to remain undecided on this point, rather than commit to asserting the possibility I raised.
Thirdly: “What I find strange is the insinuation that the West has failed in its obligations. Short of WW3, they have done a lot to help Ukraine.” Sorry, I think I didn’t present the US/UK’s moral failure towards Ukraine clearly. I meant their failure to secure Ukraine against Russia’s illegal seizure of Crimea in 2014, or to adequately support Ukraine in quelling the Russian-agitated separatist movements in Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014-22. I agree the US and UK have stepped up since Feb 24, 2014. My point is they were, and remain, morally obliged to do so to the extent necessary to restore Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty.
–Imagine if everybody applied Ms Millers morals. She’s little better than Tudge imo and lacking moral fibre.
Cronus,
No shit! And didn’t we give her 500K for …. undisclosed …
~But I needed my job. I also had a huge debt to pay off. We do what we have to~ Like every evil shit from big tobacco to nazi scientists. Just fucking crazy she has no insight to see how bad that is to say.
porotisays:
Friday, February 10, 2023 at 11:28 am
FMD. If Rowland was a Minister in a Liberal government,especially SfM’s, there would have been a clamour in the Bludger Lounge calling for her to resign or return the money.
_____________________
Just imagine C@ts response.
She would have been frothing at the mouth with rage.
the 9 grand meal paid by Sportsbet which Rowland enjoyed at Rockpool must have been one for the ages. Probably Yellowfin Tuna all round, but even then, to get to 9k must have involved some serious wine.
Corporate donations inately degrade democracy, they are a bad thing.
The Corps are not humans they do not do it out of a sense of national obligation, they are investing in advantaged access and more.
All the what about and look over there attempts in the world won’t change this.
The cross bench and teals have branded themselves with the anticorruption torch and think it is popular so they will overegg every possible pudding. But they will largely be right whenever they attack what is lawful but innately corrupt.
Twice this week the ALP have been pinged for lack of transparency/ lawful corruption, if they don’t lift their game it will just grow.
Unlucky for them the LNP hates industry superfunds that kind of effort to hide and make less transparent would normally work with bipartisan support, it would still be a corruption of democracy, and the cross bench are serving us all pointing this out.
Due to the shitty disclosure laws, Serious players on both sides are no doubt being fed some quality food by our big corporations without any of it having to be disclosed.
Rowland’s feast at Rockpool is no doubt a weekly occurrence around the country.
Ahhh cream for swollen balls – very 1999 Lance Armstrong…
https://www.nytimes.com/1999/07/22/sports/cycling-armstrong-is-engulfed-by-a-frenzy-over-salve.html
Why would he take cream from a team-mate (not very Covid Safe) and not the jar/tube?
What if the “cream” was Grippo?
I demand biopsies of his spinning finger are taken in order to clear this up. Yes it might bugger his bowling a bit in the second innings…
At least with someone like George Christensen you can just show up with a bucket of KFC.
Shorten, usually prefers servo pies, so no biggie there either.
“Due to the shitty disclosure laws, Serious players on both sides are no doubt being fed some quality food by our big corporations without any of it having to be disclosed.
Rowland’s feast at Rockpool is no doubt a weekly occurrence around the country.”
We need much tighter rules on who can donate to who and when, and in this day and age there is no reason there should not be a continuous disclosure with heavy fines levied automatically with no remission if full disclosures lag donation by more than 7 days.