Polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research (open thread)

Two new polls find Labor still with a commanding lead, but with Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings coming off their earlier peak.

The Age/Herald brings the monthly Resolve Strategic poll of federal voting intention, which has Labor down two on the primary vote to 40%, the Coalition up two to 31%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation down one to 5%. No two-party preferred is reported, but this would pan out to around 58-42 based on preference flows from last year, in from around 60-40 last time. Anthony Albanese’s approval rating (very good plus good) is down four on last month to 56%, with disapproval (very poor plus poor) up five to 30%; Peter Dutton is up one to 29% and down one to 45%; and Anthony Albanese’s lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister is 55-23, in from 55-20. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604. Further results published today including a finding that 50% expect economic conditions to worsen over the coming year, compared with 18% for improvement and 24% for staying the same.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll, which does not exclude undecided from its voting intention numbers, has Labor at 33% and the Coalition at 30% on the primary vote, both unchanged on a fortnight ago. The Greens are down three from an anomalous peak last time to 14% and One Nation are steady on 6%, with undecided at 8%. The 2PP+ measure had Labor down four to 51%, the Coalition up two to 42% and undecided up three to 8%. As noted in the previous post, Anthony Albanese’s approval is down two on a month ago to 53%, and his disapproval is up three to 34%. The full report, featuring questions on economic issues and interest rate rises, is here.

The Victorian Liberal Party’s administrative committee has as expected endorsed barrister Roshena Campbell as its candidate for the April 1 Aston by-election. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Campbell received 13 votes, with former state upper house MP Cathrine Burnett-Wake and oncologist Ranjana Srivastava on three each.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,968 comments on “Polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 60
1 2 60
  1. Reposted from last thread:

    Good on the Poles for welcoming refugee Ukrainians with warm hearts and strong arms, and for President Biden for his prominent acknowledgement of them;

    “While Biden’s speech was a rallying cry for democracies in general, it was also a pledge of solidarity with Poland, which has emerged as a crucial ally of Washington and Kyiv over the past 12 months.

    He called on the Poles in the crowd to look at each other and acknowledge the enormity of their achievement in hosting more than 1.5 million refugees.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/21/joe-biden-russian-forces-disarray-year-war-ukraine

  2. And another!

    C@t, you certainly had the good oil yesterday on our country’s firm support for the exclusion of Russian and Belarusian athletes from the 2024 Paris Olympics:

    “MELBOURNE, Feb 21 (Reuters) – The Australian government said on Tuesday it was aligned with 34 other nations on the call for the International Olympic Committee (IOC) to ban Russian and Belarusian athletes from its competitions, despite not being marked as a signatory to the statement.

    The British government issued the joint statement on Monday on behalf of “more than 30 like-minded nations”, which held a summit addressed by Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy this month.

    Australia was a signatory to two statements on the matter which were agreed by “35 like-minded nations” last year but was the only one of those countries not represented in Monday’s new pledge.

    A spokesman for the Australian Sports Ministry told Reuters that Australia’s absence was an administrative error and that the government was in accord with the sentiments expressed in the statement.”

    https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/sports/australia-aligned-with-other-nations-russia-belarus-athlete-ban-2023-02-21/

    As I was hoping, just a simple mistake. I am very relieved this morning. It is important Russia not be afforded opportunities for propagandising their aggressive imperialist interests, and that they not be allowed to profit in competition from their elimination of so many Ukrainian competitors through their invasion and occupation.

  3. No two-party preferred is reported, but this would pan out to around 58-42 based on preference flows from last year,
    ———————————————————————–

    How long will this Labor honeymoon last, the corrupt media have been wishing for Labor’s honeymoon to have ended 4 or 5 months ago

  4. Vladimir Putrid is an out of control monster:

    Russian forces shelled a busy bus station in the southern Ukrainian port city of Kherson on Tuesday, killing at least six people and injuring scores more as Moscow kept up its bombardment of the city, Ukrainian officials said.

    Andriy Yermak, a top aide to President Volodymyr Zelensky, released a video and photos showing what he said was the aftermath of the attack, with storefronts torn apart and at least one body in the rubble.

  5. From The Guardian:

    There was perhaps only one truth spoken during Vladimir Putin’s two-hour state of the nation address: that Russia would suspend its participation in the New Start treaty with the US. The rest was yet another a trip down the rabbit hole into the Russian president’s parallel universe.

    The president stayed within well-trodden terrain: the war was started by the west, and Russia needs to protect itself from the war-mongering decadent west that opened the door to nazism in the 1930s and where today pedophilia is the norm and God is gender neutral. He promised financial benefits to war widows and the wounded, and praised the Russian economy’s robust performance under sanctions, in a country where automobile production is down 67% year on year and biometric passports can no longer be issued because of the lack of chips. He praised the dramatic drop in unemployment while businesses are suffering from a dire lack of human resources due to the twin blows of mobilisation and exile.

    It is impossible to know whether Putin will carry out his threats. But one thing is knowable: it is impossible to negotiate with someone who uses lies and blackmail to force his opponent’s hand, because nothing he says can be trusted. In his speech, Putin mentioned his efforts to bring the west to the negotiating table in late 2021 by the publication of two so-called security treaties – one between Russia and the US, and one between Russia and Nato. These were in fact ultimatums, insisting that Nato withdrew to its 1997 borders.

    Beyond the fact that Putin knew from the outset that these conditions were not acceptable to the US or to Nato, when one discusses a treaty the presumption is that both parties were involved in negotiating it, and both parties actually knew that a treaty was being drafted. By framing his 2021 ultimatum as a fake treaty (that he knew was untenable), Putin is in fact engaging in a sophisticated disinformation campaign. It laid the ground for his relentless attempts to recast the war in Ukraine as a war with Nato – which is now the main reason why the Russian population is not rising up against the war as the body bags start to come home.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/21/putin-military-failure-deep-delusion-dragging-russian-people-new-start-treaty?CMP=opinionuk_email

  6. C@tmomma @ Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 6:50 am:
    “Enough Already,
    Not good oil, good eyesight. I saw it on the ABC chyron yesterday. ”
    ===========

    D’oh! (Slaps own forehead.)

  7. The stoush over a suddenly vacated NSW Liberal upper house seat has descended into party-wide chaos, drawing in senior figures of the state government and former Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

    A plan by the moderate faction to install Liberal Women’s Council president Jacqui Munro into the Legislative Council seat appeared to be falling apart on Tuesday evening amid protests from other sections of the party.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/battle-to-fill-nsw-liberal-upper-house-seat-draws-in-former-pm-morrison-20230221-p5cma5.html

    If SfM is getting involved, just wait for things to get even more stuffed up!

  8. C@tmomma @ Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 6:55 am:

    “Vladimir Putrid is an out of control monster: ….”
    =========

    +1. He just loves seeing people killed. I don’t get anyone who apologises for him.
    😡

  9. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Australia must cement a far-reaching alliance on nuclear-powered submarines to ensure its security at a time of profound uncertainty in the region, Anthony Albanese will declare in a speech today defending the $100 billion pact with the United States and the United Kingdom. David Crowe reports.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/aukus-the-single-biggest-leap-in-defence-capability-albanese-20230221-p5cm43.html
    Greg Sheridan is hopeful that Albanese will do the right thing for the country with respect to defence.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence/more-than-submarines-this-is-about-the-future-anthony-albanese/news-story/e3caab429436009a1b0253b0da4a1b72?amp
    Andrew Tillett tells us that Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil wants to cut red tape, such as forcing employers to advertise jobs locally, as part of a pro-business shake-up. And she also wants to shift the balance from relying on temporary foreign workers in favour of permanent migration, saying the “temporariness” of the system was a “huge missed opportunity”.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-plans-fix-for-broken-migration-system-20230221-p5cm5z
    According to Rachel Clun, key crossbenchers are open to backing Jim Chalmers’ ambitions to roll back superannuation tax concessions, with independent senator David Pocock saying there were easy wins in reforming the retirement saving system. The crossbenchers’ qualified support for retirement tax reform would boost the government’s chances to push through legislation that would also enshrine a definition for superannuation that restricts its use to retirement income.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/easy-wins-crossbench-senators-swing-behind-superannuation-tax-overhaul-20230221-p5cmaz.html
    Just now that system is effectively upside-down, favouring multi-millionaires and blocking younger Australians from building wealth for themselves in retirement. If an “equitable and sustainable” system is the stated ambition of the government, then making these six simple changes would be the best place to start, suggests James Kirby.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wealth/six-ways-to-sort-out-upsidedown-super-system/news-story/5ea7f342826daa23b3db2608734b1531?amp
    The stoush over a suddenly vacated NSW Liberal upper house seat has descended into party-wide chaos, drawing in senior figures of the state government and Scott Morrison, writes Tom Rabe who says a plan by the moderate faction to install Liberal Women’s Council president Jacqui Munro into the Legislative Council seat appeared to be falling apart overnight amid protests from other sections of the party.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/battle-to-fill-nsw-liberal-upper-house-seat-draws-in-former-pm-morrison-20230221-p5cma5.html
    Paul Kelly reckons that Albanese has a choice: engage or see the Voice voted down.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/albaneses-choice-engage-or-see-voice-voted-down/news-story/decc94f3ee68f5f90b81bb7656029e94?amp
    The housing industry fears new home construction will fall to a ten-year low, while there are warnings rents will soar more than 11 per cent over the coming year.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rent-shock-ahead-as-warnings-grow-of-bust-in-new-home-market-20230221-p5cmas.html
    Paul Bongiorno says that Peter Dutton is now facing his moment of truth in the Aston by-election.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2023/02/22/paul-bongiorno-peter-dutton-aston-by-election/
    Peter Martin says that the banks won’t pass on benefits to savers unless we make the do it.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8094543/the-banks-wont-pass-on-benefits-to-savers-until-we-make-them-do-it/?cs=14258
    Luke Henriques-Gomes takes us through the harrowing evidence to the royal commission by a long-serving Centerlink employee. It provides an insight into the corrosive influence of the government of the time. Effing disgraceful!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/22/i-cant-forget-frontline-worker-gives-searing-indictment-of-robodebt-as-architects-of-scheme-due-to-give-evidence
    And he report that a top departmental lawyer has admitted he didn’t turn his mind to the consequences for welfare recipients of continuing the robodebt scheme while awaiting further legal advice, despite what he conceded was “undesirable uncertainty” about its legality throughout 2019.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/21/government-lawyer-did-not-turn-his-mind-to-significant-consequences-of-continuing-robodebt-inquiry-told
    Lisa Visentin and Matthew Knott report that ASIO boss Mike Burgess has warned Australians to be vigilant as he revealed the nation is experiencing the highest level of foreign interference, espionage and terrorism in its history, surpassing the Cold War, September 11 and the height of the Islamic State caliphate.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-feels-like-hand-to-hand-combat-asio-boss-warns-on-spy-hives-foreign-interference-20230221-p5cm9t.html
    Just as we did before the Black Summer fires, we are issuing a threat warning now. Unlike last time, we now have a government that just might listen, writes Greg Mullins.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/as-la-ni-a-wanes-what-follows-could-be-even-worse-20230221-p5cm9h.html
    A local Liberal councillor at the centre of a statewide search to face a parliamentary inquiry for questioning, along with her son and Premier Dominic Perrottet’s brother, has failed to appear at a council meeting last night, writes Lucy Cormack. The drama continues.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/liberal-councillor-a-no-show-at-hills-council-meeting-as-statewide-search-for-witnesses-continues-20230221-p5cm9y.html
    The economic case for investing more public money in early childhood education and care is well understood. But reform won’t work unless carers can earn more, argues Ross Gittins.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/missed-the-masterplan-to-supercharge-the-economy-it-s-child-s-play-20230221-p5cm7h.html
    Greater use of credit cards and a rise in unpaid bills being chased by debt collectors continues to paint a picture of households feeling the squeeze, explains John Collett.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/planning-and-budgeting/unpaid-energy-water-bills-up-30-per-cent-in-further-sign-of-tough-times-20230216-p5cl3f.html
    At 4:55 pm yesterday afternoon, Tanya Plibersek approved another Santos fracking project to go ahead in Queensland’s Surat Basin. No announcement or fanfare, and only a single researcher keeping a close eye picked it up, reports Callum Foote.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/santos-wins-fracking-approval-for-towrie-gas-development-from-environment-minister-tanya-plibersek/
    The Victorian government’s “controlled trials of e-scooters” in three inner Melbourne councils and Ballarat appear anything but controlled. Already allowed to run longer than it was intended, the trial has been beset with problems and negative publicity. The private, for-profit operators and their supporters have painted a rosy picture of e-scooters as a panacea to many of our transport problems. In the process they have glossed over the many negatives, argues Ben Rossiter.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/jet-skis-of-the-city-why-melbourne-s-e-scooter-trial-is-not-working-20230221-p5cmbz.html
    Australia needs a new plan to keep rural banks open before they all get turned into cafes, urges Gabrielle Chan.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/21/australia-needs-a-new-plan-to-keep-rural-banks-open-before-they-all-get-turned-into-cafes
    In the combined 200-year history of Australia’s two large supermarket chains, they have never been led by a woman. On Tuesday, Coles broke that ignominious bicentennial drought, reports Elizabeth Knight.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/it-s-only-taken-200-years-for-the-first-woman-to-run-a-large-supermarket-chain-20230221-p5cm8g.html
    Despite grim assessments by environmental scientists, the NSW Government continues to turn its back on the environmental devastation sweeping the state, writes Sue Arnold.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/perrottet-government-remains-ignorant-as-nsw-forests-vanish,17256
    Ross Homel tells us why locking up youth offenders fails to reduce crime – and what we should be doing instead. He says, “Contrary to political rhetoric in Queensland, incarceration does not rehabilitate young people. It only exposes them to more violence.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/21/why-locking-up-youth-offenders-fails-to-reduce-and-what-we-should-be-doing-instead
    The Age’s editorial says that the AFL’s drugs policy should encourage greater transparency.
    https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/afl-drugs-policy-should-encourage-greater-transparency-20230220-p5clza.html
    Here’s part 2 of Josh Lyons’ series on what war with China would look like for Australia.
    https://johnmenadue.com/what-would-war-with-china-look-like-for-australia-part-2/
    Vladimir Putin’s rambling, almost two-hour state-of-the-nation address signalled little more than he is willing to let thousands of Russian citizens die on the battlefield and suffer at home for as long as it takes to carve up the Ukrainian state, writes Rob Harris who says it is hard take Putin seriously as a family friendly moral crusader when his troops have raped and pillaged their way across sovereign nations, his political opponents have been assassinated or incarcerated, and he continues to send thousands of young Russian men to a pointless death.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/fear-and-loathing-in-moscow-putin-lays-out-a-paranoid-vision-of-the-world-20230222-p5cmf7.html
    After a year of military failure, Putin has retreated deep into delusion – dragging the Russian people with him, writes Samantha de Bendern.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/21/putin-military-failure-deep-delusion-dragging-russian-people-new-start-treaty
    If there was ever any doubt about Joe Biden’s unwavering support for Ukraine, he put it to rest the moment he arrived at Kyiv’s Mariinsky Palace after travelling 10 hours by train from Poland in the dead of the night, writes Farrah Tomazin who provides us with the three reasons Biden risked everything to get to Kyiv.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/the-three-reasons-biden-risked-everything-to-get-to-kyiv-20230221-p5cm56.html
    Joe Biden has claimed Vladimir Putin’s year of war against Ukraine has left behind “burned-out tanks and Russian forces in disarray” but he also warned of “very bitter days” ahead in the defence of democracy in eastern Europe.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/21/joe-biden-russian-forces-disarray-year-war-ukraine

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    David Rowe

    Matt Golding




    Glen Le Lievre

    Mark Knight

    Dionne Gain

    Cathy Wilcox

    John Shakespeare

    Spooner

    From the US




  10. UK Cartoons:
    Martin Rowson on Vladimir Putin’s fictions

    Dave Brown on #Putin #Lukaschenko

    Patrick Blower on #Putin #BideninUkraine

    Matt on #northernirelandprotocol

    Martyn Turner on #Putin #UkraineWar #SpecialMilitaryOperation #PutinSpeech

    Christian Adams on #Putin #UkraineWar #SpecialMilitaryOperation #PutinSpeech

    Morten Morland on #Putin #UkraineWar #SpecialMilitaryOperation #bideninkyiv

  11. how could the preselection be falling apart just because allex hawkes faction via morrison is causing problims is this how Hawke desbite aparently the smallist faction secured the top winable spots on the upper house ticket for mclaron jones whoes term did not even run out and ray williams preselection desbite undermining perotits brtothhers and hills cowncil allies

  12. is this how hawke managed to get mclaron jones the top spot on upper house ticket desbite having four years left on her term plus managed to save Ray williamsdesbite basickly causing masive problims for perottit and his brothers and his allies onhills shier cowncil never heard of a sitting mp attack there own leader and be re selected

  13. The Age 21/02
    Communications Minister Michelle Rowland has declared she will not accept any more donations from gambling firms like Sportsbet and conceded the public expected better behaviour from elected officials.
    _____________________
    Took a while, but looks to have finally sunk in.

  14. “This will be the single biggest leap in our defence capability in our history. Yet AUKUS is about much more than nuclear submarines, or even technological interoperability. AUKUS is about the future.
    _____________________
    Looks like Albo is a massive convert to AUKUS and nuclear submarines. So much for the French.
    How about the creation of AUKUS as an achievement Granny. Albo’s all for it.

  15. So the claims about $5bn wasted on French subs was electoral BS from Labor? They obviously would have done exactly the same thing.

    And you wonder why people are cynical about electoral politics?

  16. Oliver Sutton

    Hey Ho, the automatic anti-Western snark comes readily to the lips!

    Here is what you are actually talking about. But you knew that.

    间谍蜂巢

  17. So the claims about $5bn wasted on French subs was electoral BS from Labor? They obviously would have done exactly the same thing.

    ____________________________________

    The waste was entering into the stupid contract without doing proper homework. A Coalition speciality.

  18. The last open thread had a remarkably short life, which I didn’t pick up on until now. So here is a reposting of my comments there re the Roald Dahl kerfuffle.

    You can’t really blame Puffin Books and whoever holds the publishing rights (apparently Netflix? or did I misread something) for taking pre-emptive action to avoid Dahl’s books being cancelled. The woke brigade can’t keep books out of the bookshops, but they wield an increasingly powerful influence over what appears on the shelves of school and local libraries, which are a crucial part of the marketing strategy for any children’s book.

    If you don’t like this stuff, it’s no good complaining to the publishers. The real villians are the government and municipal bureaucrats who try to impose their woke agenda on schools and libraries and, consequently, the politicians who appoint those bureaucrats.

    However, like me, most of you would be unlikely to change your vote over such a minor issue. So I’m afraid we’ll all have to put up with quite a bit more of this until perhaps the ardour of the woke warriors starts to fade a little bit.

    A slightly disturbing feature of the changes to Dahl’s books is that apparently it’s no longer acceptable in Wokestan to make fun of people for being fat or bald. Well, there goes three thousand years of comedy history straight out the window: Aristophanes, Terence, Plautus, Shakespeare, Gilbert and Sullivan, the Marx Brothers, etc, etc.

    I also didn’t much appreciate the imposition of woke rules even onto the reading choices of the characters of Dahl’s novels: eg, Matilda is now prohibited from reading Rudyard Kipling and is instead required to read Jane Austen. I guess it was only a concern to avoid appearing anachronistic that the censors didn’t have her reading the collected works of Ibram X Kendi.

  19. Honeymoon over? Why does the data not support the headline…

    Labor’s primary vote is 15% above the May election; and Albo is creaming the pug ugly Dutton in PPM.

    Am I missing something?

  20. re Aston by-election

    Pundits would be advised to remember that Chinese do not automatically like Indians and Sri Lankans because they are all Asian
    Presumably the Liberal selectors have compared the number of Chinese to Indian names on the electoral

  21. meher baba

    Republican Florida Governor Ron De Santis is forging his image as anti woke by banning books in schools and libraries. What say you?

  22. Taylormade says:
    Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 8:41 am
    “This will be the single biggest leap in our defence capability in our history. Yet AUKUS is about much more than nuclear submarines, or even technological interoperability. AUKUS is about the future.
    _____________________
    Looks like Albo is a massive convert to AUKUS and nuclear submarines. So much for the French.
    How about the creation of AUKUS as an achievement Granny. Albo’s all for it.

    ——————————–
    LOL Taylormade

  23. ” Why does the data not support the headline…”

    Maybe more pertinently, why is the headline unsupported by the data upon which it is purportedly based?

  24. Elections as weddings is a fun metaphor. In reference to Dan Andrews, someone smarter than me recently said, “That’s not a honeymoon, that’s a marriage.” You might say it’s looking promising for Anthony Albanese.

    There’s a question for the headline writers though. Is 9 months of happiness a merely honeymoon? What about 10?

  25. I note that superannuation debate is still running in the press. Labor appears to have adopted the timeworn tactic of setting a few hares running, and then keeping mute while others discuss the issue, and presumably also running some polling and focus groups to try to find out how much people care about any possible changes.

    I’m not sure that this going to be really helpful to them, as I think superannuation is a bit of a slow burn issue for most people, who will take quite a while to become aware of what the changes mean for them.

    The big risk is, of course, a repetition of the furore following Gillard’s concession that, although she had promised during the election that there would be no carbon tax, she was now imposing one. Australian voters have shown consistently that they greatly resent being taken for mugs by politicians who promise one thing and then do another.

    Labor presumably has plans as to how they might spin any changes to super: the strategy is presumably to draw a line in the sand and say, beyond this line any superannuation accumulated is surplus to requirements to fund anyone’s retirement and can therefore be taxed. And all of this will be justified by legislation enshrining the purpose of superannuation as funding a “dignified” retirement or whatever.

    I reckon that, unless they are intending to make a monumental change to the superannuation system which will given them tens of billions of additional dollars in taxation revenue, the rewards likely to come from this strategy are greatly outweighed by the risks. It seems to me that it would give Dutton too much to work with.

    Any changes to superannuation taxation rules – beyond the low-hanging fruit of targeting the small number of people with more than $5m in their accounts – are going to affect the lives of large numbers of people in all sorts of ways, creating all sorts of alleged mini-injustices and hard luck stories that will just keep on giving and giving to the Opposition. Things like, “this person dying of cancer was about to withdraw all of thir funds from super and used them to visit their long-lost sister in Paraguay but now the government will take a big bite of those funds in tax and they can’t afford to go.” Or, “this person sold their house in order to put some funds into super and now the government is stepping in and taking a big bite of those funds.” The superannuation system is so complex that it’s difficult to know how many cases like this there might be.

    The simpler, possibly lower risk, alternative if the Government wants to renege on election promises and save some money is not to deliver the stage 3 tax cuts. I suggested yesterday that the superannuation thing might be a feint. I note Nick McKim has suggested that scrapping the tax cuts could be a better solution than mucking around with super. Another possible short-term measure that I reckon the government could get away with is to defer for one or two years the current caps on low tax contributions (which I think is currently $27.5k per annum) and on transfer into pension phase (currently $1.7k).

    Anyway, this is highly interesting to watch. Perhaps some good reforms might emerge from it, but there be dragons lying in wait.

  26. All Putin has to do is hold out for the next two years.
    In January 2025, Trump will probably be US President, and have control of both houses of Congress. If Trump is indicted in some way, deSantis will probably win. A recent poll has him winning against Biden by about 5 points head-to-head and with a +3 net favourability rating (Harvard University).

    In a year or two, the political environment in the greater Pacific may look VERY different, especially if the economy tanks further and the referendum fails. We could be back to a Coalition government – and the most right-wing ever – sooner than most might think.

  27. Steve777, the answer lies in the age of the headline. Like something at the back of the fridge, at some point a hard choice must be made.

  28. This probably helps explain the Liberal’s Aston preselection stitch up:
    “She is a Melbourne councillor, barrister, columnist, married to News Corp editor James Campbell”

  29. Victoria: “Republican Florida Governor Ron De Santis is forging his image as anti woke by banning books in schools and libraries. What say you?”

    RDS is an extremely unappealing character: a highly-educated man who is playing at being a MAGA. I think he will ultimately prove unconvincing to the morons who voted for Trump and I don’t expect to see him as the candidate in 2024.

    Re his anti-woke stuff (which I didn’t think was mainly about banning books, but whatever). As I tried to say in my earlier post, I feel unhappy about the continuing woke crusade without considering it to be a major political issue that would ever seriously affect the way I vote (apart from confirming in my mind that I will never again vote for the Greens). So I don’t think it is helpful for politicians to stir up the issue in a major way: except perhaps in relation to the extreme forms of the BLM craziness that might lead to known violent criminals going unpunished (which saw the recall of the San Francisco DA and his replacement by a sensible Democrat).

    So I’m hoping to see the demise of RDS’s presidential ambitious in the near future.

  30. Victoria

    You are correct.
    They will not be President in 2024. One of them will most likely be present in late January 2025.
    Lol
    (I won’t be laughing then, if I’m still alive.)

    One consolation is that there will probably be a Labour prime minister in Britain. But then only because the racist silent majority couldn’t stomach voting for a non-white Tory.

  31. Meher baba

    Its not just about banning books. Its the dont say gay legislation and attempt to control disney, and not forgetting the stunt of sending migrants to Marthas vineyard.

  32. Yeah Labor should go for it. Australians want to pay more tax and fund social programs and spending for other people. Sky is the limit.

    As sprocket points out its a permanent realignment. What could possibly be wrong with that?

  33. “One consolation is that there will probably be a Labour prime minister in Britain. But then only because the racist silent majority couldn’t stomach voting for a non-white Tory.”

    Shame that Labor PM is effectively a tory.

  34. “Shame that Labor PM is effectively a tory.”

    – Didn’t you know that “Tony Blair” is an anagram of “Tory in Lab.”

    Every Labo(u)r prime minister in the Western World since Hawke has been effectively a Tory. Even Jacinda Ardern. Elections in the modern neoliberal era have never been a choice between the centre-left and centre-right; they have been between the centre-right and far-right – and the fulcrum moves further to the right with each passing year.

  35. “I note that superannuation debate is still running in the press. Labor appears to have adopted the timeworn tactic of setting a few hares running, and then keeping mute while others discuss the issue, and presumably also running some polling and focus groups to try to find out how much people care about any possible changes.”

    I think you have worked it out.

    I have a feeling a suite of caps to tax expenditures are in the works. Super is clearly the first item on the agenda, with caps to negative gearing coming later.

    However, I don’t think franking credits will be in the mix for a while. Despite the ease implementing them and their effectiveness as progressive taxation tools, after Bowen’s complete and utter botching of the narrative in 2019, they won’t be reconsidered or discussed until after the next election. Plenty of other things to do in the mean time.

  36. Taylormade says:
    Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 8:41 am
    “This will be the single biggest leap in our defence capability in our history. Yet AUKUS is about much more than nuclear submarines, or even technological interoperability. AUKUS is about the future.
    _____________________
    Looks like Albo is a massive convert to AUKUS and nuclear submarines. So much for the French.
    How about the creation of AUKUS as an achievement Granny. Albo’s all for it.
    ———————————————————————————————

    AUKUS, same allegiances, different name. It’s just a rebadging, not an achievement.

  37. Lars Von Trier says:
    Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 8:53 am
    So the claims about $5bn wasted on French subs was electoral BS from Labor? They obviously would have done exactly the same thing.

    And you wonder why people are cynical about electoral politics?
    ———————————————————————————————-

    I suspect totally failed, corrupt and incompetent governance by nine years of Coalition government did all the damage leaving Australian politics a smoking ruin.

  38. BK @ #10 Wednesday, February 22nd, 2023 – 7:28 am

    At 4:55 pm yesterday afternoon, Tanya Plibersek approved another Santos fracking project to go ahead in Queensland’s Surat Basin. No announcement or fanfare, and only a single researcher keeping a close eye picked it up, reports Callum Foote.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/santos-wins-fracking-approval-for-towrie-gas-development-from-environment-minister-tanya-plibersek/

    You have to wonder when some of the Labor Partisans here are going to open their eyes … and their minds … 🙁

    The development of the 116 wells, each requiring up to 2.5 hectares of land cleared, will be in a 8,678 hectare area and have an operational life of approximately 30 years.

    It was recommended that the project be subject to environmental assessment before approval by the minister.

    Public comments as part of the assessment noted impacts on water resources, threatened listed species and communities, and underestimated risk to migratory species. The department noted further that “without appropriate management the proposed action is likely to result in significant impact to water resources. The department notes that there are existing management frameworks that may be suitable to apply to the proposed action.”

    While the environmental assessment opened the project up to public submissions, Plibersek has appeared to let Santos change the wording of their assessment after submissions were closed.

    Few of us here will still be around in 30 years … but the emissions from these 116 new wells will be.

  39. Victoria says:
    Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 9:10 am
    meher baba

    Republican Florida Governor Ron De Santis is forging his image as anti woke by banning books in schools and libraries. What say you?
    ———————————————————————————————-

    I’m just waiting for his next move, burning them, Kristallnacht style.

Comments Page 1 of 60
1 2 60

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *