Polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research (open thread)

Two new polls find Labor still with a commanding lead, but with Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings coming off their earlier peak.

The Age/Herald brings the monthly Resolve Strategic poll of federal voting intention, which has Labor down two on the primary vote to 40%, the Coalition up two to 31%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation down one to 5%. No two-party preferred is reported, but this would pan out to around 58-42 based on preference flows from last year, in from around 60-40 last time. Anthony Albanese’s approval rating (very good plus good) is down four on last month to 56%, with disapproval (very poor plus poor) up five to 30%; Peter Dutton is up one to 29% and down one to 45%; and Anthony Albanese’s lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister is 55-23, in from 55-20. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604. Further results published today including a finding that 50% expect economic conditions to worsen over the coming year, compared with 18% for improvement and 24% for staying the same.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll, which does not exclude undecided from its voting intention numbers, has Labor at 33% and the Coalition at 30% on the primary vote, both unchanged on a fortnight ago. The Greens are down three from an anomalous peak last time to 14% and One Nation are steady on 6%, with undecided at 8%. The 2PP+ measure had Labor down four to 51%, the Coalition up two to 42% and undecided up three to 8%. As noted in the previous post, Anthony Albanese’s approval is down two on a month ago to 53%, and his disapproval is up three to 34%. The full report, featuring questions on economic issues and interest rate rises, is here.

The Victorian Liberal Party’s administrative committee has as expected endorsed barrister Roshena Campbell as its candidate for the April 1 Aston by-election. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Campbell received 13 votes, with former state upper house MP Cathrine Burnett-Wake and oncologist Ranjana Srivastava on three each.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,968 comments on “Polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research (open thread)”

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  1. dm: “I have a feeling a suite of caps to tax expenditures are in the works. Super is clearly the first item on the agenda, with caps to negative gearing coming later.
    However, I don’t think franking credits will be in the mix for a while. Despite the ease implementing them and their effectiveness as progressive taxation tools, after Bowen’s complete and utter botching of the narrative in 2019, they won’t be reconsidered or discussed until after the next election. Plenty of other things to do in the mean time.”

    I reckon you’re right about franking credits, the cost of which will be dampened by the forthcoming recession.

    Negative gearing is the big ticket item, particularly in a time of rising interest rates (although rents are also shooting up through the roof, making it more difficult for landlords to record a loss on their investments).

    I still think superannuation is really tricky, particularly as returns have not been all that great over the past couple of years. So perhaps the stage 3 tax cuts are the easier kill. Or, to go back to my earlier suggestion, freezing indexation of the caps on low tax contributions and total tax free transfer into the pension phase, while also going ahead with the stage 3 tax cuts, will not have a particularly dire impact on anyone and is probably worth a try.

    Beyond this, I think Lars is correct in suggesting that large numbers of voters are going to be no more enthused than they were in 2019 about the idea of having their wealth taxed and redistributed to people who haven’t accumulated any. There is also a risk that any large-scale redistribution from subsidising the savings of superannuants to other forms of government expenditure could have a significant inflationary effect.

  2. I had an appointment yesterday afternoon so missed the brave Jeanne-Marie Blake’s appearance at the RC.
    Does anyone know if there is video footage of this?

  3. MelbourneMammoth says:
    Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 9:25 am
    All Putin has to do is hold out for the next two years.
    In January 2025, Trump will probably be US President, and have control of both houses of Congress. If Trump is indicted in some way, deSantis will probably win. A recent poll has him winning against Biden by about 5 points head-to-head and with a +3 net favourability rating (Harvard University).

    In a year or two, the political environment in the greater Pacific may look VERY different, especially if the economy tanks further and the referendum fails. We could be back to a Coalition government – and the most right-wing ever – sooner than most might think.
    ———————————————————————————————

    Be soothed, no matter how bad the economy gets (and I believe it will be well on it’s way back by 2025), those same people who rid themselves of the Coalition will not be returning in 2025. After all, neither the Coalition nor the voters have changed.

  4. I think it’s silly to allow speculation on Superannuation.

    We have seen how allowing the NO campaign for the Voice to be publicised over January has started to sway voters. Most people are influenced by the first view they get and are rarely swayed. EG you make up your mind about a person within 30 seconds of meeting them, you won’t change your opinion unless presented with lots of incontrovertible proof

    Superannuation needs a strong campaign citing that super tax concessions cost more than aged pension, that super pensions are tax free
    What % of retirees rely on aged pension or recieve a part pension & so are unable to participate in these rorts/tax benefits, is it 80%

    There is an urban myth that many millionaires have organised their affairs so they can collect the aged pension while living in their mansions exempted from aged pension asset test. I heard a greek migrant couple on aged pension have 5 houses in Albert Park.
    That’s a lot of effort dealing with
    centrelink for $23,556 sgl/ $36,712 couple per annum
    as opposed to
    super $80,000/$160,000

  5. Morning all. A delayed thanks for the roundup BK.

    Chalmers gave Pat Karvalas on ABC RN an excellent answer on capping super this morning.
    “ RN Breakfast’s host, Patricia Karvelas, mentions the Grattan Institute proposal of removing tax concessions for people with super balances above $3m. Does Chalmers think that is achievable?

    Well, it depends on your definition of achievable obviously, I’m aware of those Grattan Institute proposals. They’ve been engaged in the national debate about superannuation for some time. And if you think about that example that you gave, I’ve got a slightly different one … the average balance in super is about $150,000 I think, but for less than 1% of people in the system, they’ve got balances higher than $3m.”

  6. Lots of takeaways from today’s (yesterday afternoon’s, GMT) episode of the UK Telegraph’s podcast “Ukraine: The Latest”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7mMrv09k3I

    A few bullet points:

    1. Putin’s rambling speech showed someone so divorced from reality about the causes and nature of the war he launched in Ukraine that he simply cannot be negotiated with;
    2. China, India and Pakistan should have had it made clearer to them by the West that subversion of sanctions upon Russia on their part would provoke severe economic consequences upon them;
    3. The ‘Valentine’s Day Massacre’ of a crack Russian unit by Ukrainian artillery near Vuhledar shows everything that has been misconceived about Putin’s overruling of the sensible advice of the likes of Surovikin

  7. 10 years ago, this would have been a good idea …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-22/alinta-calls-for-new-gas-plant-in-wa-amid-coal-exit/101992258

    Now? Not so much. We’ve left it too late. But I also note we are now hearing the same panicked cries of “impending blackouts!” and “looming grid failure!” in the eastern states as well.

    If one was a cynical person, one might be tempted to think that the Cartel had orchestrated and delayed the exit from coal specifically to make us dependent on their gas instead.

  8. Quasar @ #52 Wednesday, February 22nd, 2023 – 10:05 am

    I had an appointment yesterday afternoon so missed the brave Jeanne-Marie Blake’s appearance at the RC.
    Does anyone know if there is video footage of this?

    It will be up on a link like this some time today.

    https://robodebt.royalcommission.gov.au/publications/hearing-day-32-20-february-2023

    It is: hearing-day-33-21-february-2023

    If you follow down the options from the robodebt royal commission home page, via

    Hearings – Hearing Block 4 – Webcast/Video (right at the bottom)

    you will find full videos of every day.

  9. That Valentine’s Day attack on Vuhledar:

    “Desperate to break through Ukrainian defenses around Vuhledar, a major strongpoint in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, the Russian army deployed at least one of its precious TOS-1A thermobaric rocket launchers.

    The Ukrainians blew it up. Dramatically. A TOS-1A is a 24-pack of 220-millimeter “flamethrowing” rockets mounted on a tank chassis. Hit a TOS-1A, and it’s likely to explode in a billowing fireball and scatter flame and rocket-parts in all directions.

    That’s exactly what happened on or before Valentine’s Day, when the Ukrainian army’s 72nd Mechanized Brigade struck a TOS-1A outside Vuhledar. As Ukrainian cameras recorded from the sky and the ground, the Russian launcher burst like a giant firework. …

    … In just one bloody, chaotic day two weeks ago, the Russians lost 30 or more armored vehicles around Vuhledar. Their losses only deepened in the following days. The Russians have deployed at least three brigades around Vuhledar, and it seems two of them—the 40th and 155th Naval Infantry Brigades—are on the edge of combat-ineffectiveness. …

    … It’s unclear exactly how many TOS-1As the Russians have left. Regardless, they were willing to risk at least one of the precious vehicles escalating their assault on Vuhledar. A TOS-1A can cost up to $7 million to build. …

    … In Soviet doctrine, a TOS-1 deploys with tanks as escorts. “Doctrinally, the TOS-1 was envisioned to decimate a large area, by charging ahead, while under the protection of tanks, launching its rockets in rapid succession (all [24 or] 30 rockets in 7.5 seconds), and then returning to the rear for rearmament and redeployment,” Grau and Charles Bartles explained in their definitive The Russian Way of War.

    It’s not clear the Russians are sticking to that doctrine. It seems there were no escorting tanks in sight when the Ukrainians blew up that TOS-1A outside Vuhledar. Which, of course, might be why the Ukrainians were able to hit the thermobaric launcher.”

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/18/when-russian-troops-got-stuck-in-a-minefield-near-vuhledar-they-deployed-a-flamethrower-rocket-launcher-the-ukrainians-blew-it-up/?sh=329daca277e5

  10. Socrates: “Chalmers gave Pat Karvalas on ABC RN an excellent answer on capping super this morning.”

    Sort of, but he’s continuing to play the game of setting hares running rather than articulating a clear position. His reference to the average balancebeing around $150k will immediately put a shiver down the spine of anyone with a holding significantly larger that this amount, not to mention their relatives, friends, etc.

    I think it’s pretty reasonable for all of us to expect a fair bit more clarity from the Government as to exactly what sort of changes they are considering. They’ve appointed umpteen review processes over the past 12 months, but nothing in relation to this issue. There’s a fair bit of glibness and arrogance in the way they are talking about changes that would affect many people’s lives.

  11. MB @ 10.02

    Beyond this, I think Lars is correct in suggesting that large numbers of voters are going to be no more enthused than they were in 2019 about the idea of having their wealth taxed and redistributed to people who haven’t accumulated any. There is also a risk that any large-scale redistribution from subsidising the savings of superannuants to other forms of government expenditure could have a significant inflationary effect.

    _______________________________________

    The big difference is that in 2019 Labor was in Opposition – now it is in government.

  12. meher baba @ Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 10:24 am

    “Sort of, but he’s continuing to play the game of setting hares running rather than articulating a clear position. His reference to the average balancebeing around $150k will immediately put a shiver down the spine of anyone with a holding significantly larger that this amount, not to mention their relatives, friends, etc.

    I think it’s pretty reasonable for all of us to expect a fair bit more clarity from the Government as to exactly what sort of changes they are considering. They’ve appointed umpteen review processes over the past 12 months, but nothing in relation to this issue. There’s a fair bit of glibness and arrogance in the way they are talking about changes that would affect many people’s lives.”

    For a poster interested in policy debate, I would have thought you would also be a fan of the government engaging in policy debate. Does that make you glib and arrogant too? 🙂

  13. @L’arse:

    “So the claims about $5bn wasted on French subs was electoral BS from Labor? They obviously would have done exactly the same thing.”

    _____

    Huh?

    So, you are saying in effect that Labor would have spent 8 years ‘messing about in boats’, before signing off on a feasibility study in lieu of an actual program, only – possibly, we shall see – to be saved at the last moment by the UK government, who is broke, and hence willing to sell us two brand new SSNs?

    Come in spinner. What likely would have happened if labor won the 2013 election is an initial commitment to build the first four boats using either the Type 216, or A26 or a further evolution of the Collins as a baseline design with the then joint venture ThyssenKrupp-Kockums being the prime partner with the ASC and the four hulls being laid down between 2015 & 19 (this was always ‘the plan’ until Abbott, then Turnbull got involved).

    THEN, if the government of the day truly received the critical advice that we must pivot to nuclear submarines, the feasibility study would have kicked off in 2021/22 involving a consideration of all three western nuclear submarine powers. If Sunuk was truly prepared to sell us two SSNs NOW, and build us another this decade (as seems to be the case), that would have effectively clinched the deal, as now. However, in the meantime we would also have a fleet of at least four new SSKs coming into service this decade, which would form the spine of the fleet until our whole SSN fleet finally rolled out in the late 2040s/early 2050s (noting that even with 3 SSNs provided as ‘starters’ by UK, it will in all likelihood still take a minimum of two decades to go from effectively zero to possessing a mature nuclear submarine capability, taking into account the time required to gain the knowhow required to build at least the front half of a nuclear boat, and the ability to undertake basic maintenance of the whole boat in australia).

    If you want to play so retrospective ‘sliding doors’ horseshit, you should at last get real. The Liberals blew a decade and $5 billion dollars. It seems like it was Albo and Marles who pulled this one out of the fire – and that is only true IF it turns out that the Brits are actually prepared to release the Agamemnon and Agincourt to us this decade: otherwise the whole capability gap thing still looms as large as ever.

  14. Beyond this, I think Lars is correct in suggesting that large numbers of voters are going to be no more enthused than they were in 2019 about the idea of having their wealth taxed and redistributed to people who haven’t accumulated any.

    So the rich, who have accumulated wealth via favourable tax changes brought about by Coalition governments should have those advantages set in aspic forevermore so they can keep accumulating wealth at the expense, literally, of the poor?

    Well, those voters can be as unenthused as they like because that, there, is your rusted-on Liberal-voting base.

  15. Liberals introduced the $1.6million cap on tax free super with little fanfare, it’s increased to $1.7 million tax free per person with unlimited amounts in accumulation accounts with earnings taxed at 15%. I can see the cap on super being set at $3.5 million so surviving partner not having to reorganise affairs

    “Average super balance is $150,000”, that means the median superannuation balance at retirement would be $80,000 – may as well withdraw it all to pay off mortgage, buy new car. Indicates waay more than 50% retirees on full aged pension

    I think wishy washy announcements just give the opposition time to oppose

    When John Howard’s Treasurer Peter Costello made superannuation earnings tax free for beneficiaries over 60, my accountant said “This can not last, it’s unsustainable – enjoy it while you can”

    I expect that superannuation pensions might be treated like public service pensions attracting income tax less 15%

  16. So firstly with all the inane and insane frothing at the mouth against Xi, we have Queensland changing the law to criminalise and lock up more children, where we know institutionalising children is a massive recipe for failure, wtf is wrong with Labor in Queensland, and we have NSW police raiding peaceful protesters and dragging them to jail in the middle of the night. Granted they were released after 4 hours on very strict conditions, rather than summarily executed, but NSW police seem to be so out of control on an insane level.

    If we don’t like Xi shouldn’t we be moving our society away from the kind of things he believes in rather than incrementally embracing them?

  17. What is Chalmers playing at from a political communications perspective? I understand that superannuation tax policy needs reform and change. But starting the conversation without saying what you are planning to do is really dangerous and quite dumb from a political communications viewpoint. The scare campaign is already in full swing and it does not take much for it to take hold and once it has a foothold it is unrecoverable. I hope he can pull up lest genuine reform which is badly needed will be lost before he even utters what he wants to do.

  18. I’d be putting my money on a limit to Salary Sacrifice into Super being set as well. Also, the number of Investment Properties that can be held in SMSF and just, in general. They’re all rorts for the wealthy.

  19. ““Average super balance is $150,000”, that means the median superannuation balance at retirement would be $80,000 – may as well withdraw it all to pay off mortgage, buy new car. Indicates waay more than 50% retirees on full aged pension”

    The failure to consistently raise the rate of superannuation is a huge policy failure, that and betting the countries retirement savings on volatile markets where individuals not corporations or the State carry all the risk. I did ask Kouk whose stupid idea that was, he didn’t respond surprisingly

  20. “I hope he can pull up lest genuine reform which is badly needed will be lost before he even utters what he wants to do”

    If only they’d had 10 years in opposition to develop a policy framework, that they sold to the electorate.

  21. TPOF says:
    Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 10:24 am
    MB @ 10.02

    Beyond this, I think Lars is correct in suggesting that large numbers of voters are going to be no more enthused than they were in 2019 about the idea of having their wealth taxed and redistributed to people who haven’t accumulated any. There is also a risk that any large-scale redistribution from subsidising the savings of superannuants to other forms of government expenditure could have a significant inflationary effect.

    _______________________________________

    The big difference is that in 2019 Labor was in Opposition – now it is in government.
    ——————————————————————————————-

    It is undeniable that the times are a changin but the Coalition and their supporters either don’t recognise this, understand it or being in denial, insist upon fighting the last war as though nothing has changed.

  22. sprocket_ says:
    Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 9:07 am

    Honeymoon over? Why does the data not support the headline…

    Labor’s primary vote is 15% above the May election; and Albo is creaming the pug ugly Dutton in PPM.

    Am I missing something?
    ____________

    Morning all and thanks BK.

    Ms Snappy and I now reside in Brisbane…surrounded by boxes of our stuff…ugh!

    Sproc, the “honeymoon is over” because of one or both of two reasons…
    1. ALP primary vote “plummeted” from 42 (previous Resolve) all the way down to 40% AND Albo’s approval plunged by a similar-ish amount. ALP is clearly on thin ice!
    2. At least one mainstream media outlet declared the honeymoon to be over. Evidence is irrelevant.

  23. Sohar @ #38 Wednesday, February 22nd, 2023 – 9:31 am

    This probably helps explain the Liberal’s Aston preselection stitch up:
    “She is a Melbourne councillor, barrister, columnist, married to News Corp editor James Campbell”

    Here’s a head shot of Roshena Campbell Is there a large Indian demographic in Ashton? This was reported on The Australia Today website; The Australia Today is dedicated to news, analysis and opinions from Australia focused on multicultural communities and the Indian subcontinent.

    If you didnt know that she is a Melbourne councilor, barrister, columnist, married to News Corp editor James Campbell, as a local voter and just looked at her election posters you might be fooled into thinking she represents a wider demographic than just ‘lawyer inside News Ltd camp’. Who is that demographic anyway?

    What’s her record on the Melbourne City Council?

  24. Current superannuation policy was designed when you worked continuously from age 15 to age 67.

    It doesn’t work for women who take time out to raise children, care for elderly relatives
    It doesn’t work for people who are thrown on the scrap heap at age 50, unable to find another job and unable to access working age income support payments until they have exhausted their savings. By the time they reach pension age they are hungry, with poor teeth and generally in poor health

    So I don’t think the pool of superannuation savings from the general worker is going to increase any time soon

    I am pleased that employers contribution to superannuation is paid from first dollar earned because many low paid women were getting few shifts a month to earn under $450 a month when super contribution kicked in. Especially rife amongst cleaners and nursing staff in aged care, who were forced to work over multiple sites to earn a living

  25. The Age 22/02
    A former Labor minister misused his position on a government board to lobby on behalf of a Chinese-backed consortium for a $31 billion “super-city” in Melbourne’s west, and, in lieu of payments for his work, solicited donations for the 2018 election campaign of his daughter, Northcote MP Kat Theophanous.

    The Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission on Wednesday morning tabled its report, titled Operation Clara, after a three-year investigation into the corrupt conduct of Theo Theophanous.
    _____________________
    Have always thought he was a pretty grubby sort of character.

  26. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 10:49 am
    Beyond this, I think Lars is correct in suggesting that large numbers of voters are going to be no more enthused than they were in 2019 about the idea of having their wealth taxed and redistributed to people who haven’t accumulated any.

    So the rich, who have accumulated wealth via favourable tax changes brought about by Coalition governments should have those advantages set in aspic forevermore so they can keep accumulating wealth at the expense, literally, of the poor?

    Well, those voters can be as unenthused as they like because that, there, is your rusted-on Liberal-voting base.
    ——————————————————————————————

    It’s a numbers game and the amount of voters with massive superannuation holdings are a minority. They’ll make a lot of noise but again, the times and electorate have changed and the majority will see through the lobbyists and their message in the Australian, AFR and Sky News.

  27. James Campbell is editor of the Herald Sun which boasts the largest circulation in Victoria, much much larger than the Age which is much larger than The Australian – Rupert’s vanity project

    Always has the truth on the back pages and lies towards the front

  28. The superannuation propaganda by the corrupt media units , will fall flat like during the 2022 federal election campaign, the Gaffe

    The superannuation propaganda is a look away from Robodebt royal commission

  29. Taylormade says:
    Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 11:11 am
    The Age 22/02
    A former Labor minister misused his position on a government board to lobby on behalf of a Chinese-backed consortium for a $31 billion “super-city” in Melbourne’s west, and, in lieu of payments for his work, solicited donations for the 2018 election campaign of his daughter, Northcote MP Kat Theophanous.

    The Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission on Wednesday morning tabled its report, titled Operation Clara, after a three-year investigation into the corrupt conduct of Theo Theophanous.
    _____________________
    Have always thought he was a pretty grubby sort of character.

    ———————–

    Taylormade what you do call Morrison and his cronies conduct during the illegal robodebt

  30. Mr sparkes, the DHS lawyer who said it was ok to ignore an AAT ruling on Robodebt, gets a mention at the RC.
    I wonder if he is to make the witness list.
    The words contempt of the tribunal were used today.
    He might have a fun time with commissioner Holmes.

  31. There is currently aprroximately 9,500 Australian Citizens over 18 in Aston who have South Asian heritage (4,500 Indians, 3,000 Sri Lankas and 2,000 others). So they represent about 9% of voters.

  32. The witness Roser agrees with Scott’s summation that the view was there was no need to get legal advice because the government had decided to process with the scheme using averaging.
    A very telling statement!

  33. wranslide @ #73 Wednesday, February 22nd, 2023 – 10:59 am

    What is Chalmers playing at from a political communications perspective? I understand that superannuation tax policy needs reform and change. But starting the conversation without saying what you are planning to do is really dangerous and quite dumb from a political communications viewpoint. The scare campaign is already in full swing and it does not take much for it to take hold and once it has a foothold it is unrecoverable. I hope he can pull up lest genuine reform which is badly needed will be lost before he even utters what he wants to do.

    The government needs to keep reminding voters there’d be no 3.3 trillion dollar super sector without the ALP.

  34. ‘Opposition Leader Peter Dutton says hard-working people don’t want their retirement savings taxed.’
    or Opposition leader says voters should remember that the Liberal party never supported compulsory super and if it weren’t for the Labor party there’d be no super to tax.

  35. mundo – Yes, I mangled that one. Look I even misspelt approximately. It was because I was looking up the data at the same time as typing.

  36. Now talking about the Masterton Federal Court challenge.
    Department seemed keen to keep it out of court.
    They did, folding at the door on the day and wiping her debt.
    Sus?
    You bet.

  37. ‘“If the Labor Party is changing the rules, and taxing and taxing and taxing your superannuation, why will people invest in super, it’s not just the people who have superannuation funds that will face high taxes,” he said.’

    Oh dear. He we go again.
    Hope the ALP is prpared for this shit this time.

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