The Age/Herald brings the monthly Resolve Strategic poll of federal voting intention, which has Labor down two on the primary vote to 40%, the Coalition up two to 31%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation down one to 5%. No two-party preferred is reported, but this would pan out to around 58-42 based on preference flows from last year, in from around 60-40 last time. Anthony Albanese’s approval rating (very good plus good) is down four on last month to 56%, with disapproval (very poor plus poor) up five to 30%; Peter Dutton is up one to 29% and down one to 45%; and Anthony Albanese’s lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister is 55-23, in from 55-20. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604. Further results published today including a finding that 50% expect economic conditions to worsen over the coming year, compared with 18% for improvement and 24% for staying the same.
The fortnightly Essential Research poll, which does not exclude undecided from its voting intention numbers, has Labor at 33% and the Coalition at 30% on the primary vote, both unchanged on a fortnight ago. The Greens are down three from an anomalous peak last time to 14% and One Nation are steady on 6%, with undecided at 8%. The 2PP+ measure had Labor down four to 51%, the Coalition up two to 42% and undecided up three to 8%. As noted in the previous post, Anthony Albanese’s approval is down two on a month ago to 53%, and his disapproval is up three to 34%. The full report, featuring questions on economic issues and interest rate rises, is here.
The Victorian Liberal Party’s administrative committee has as expected endorsed barrister Roshena Campbell as its candidate for the April 1 Aston by-election. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Campbell received 13 votes, with former state upper house MP Cathrine Burnett-Wake and oncologist Ranjana Srivastava on three each.
Cr Roshena Campbell is a regular columnist in The Age usually with pretty RW views on topics well outside her knowledge.
Pretty ineffective on Melbourne City Council from my understanding.
UK Labour lead is twenty-two points in latest results from Deltapoll. Fieldwork: 17th – 20th February
Sample: 1,079 GB adults (Changes from 10th – 13th February 2023)
Lab 50% (+2)
Con 28% (-)
Lib Dem 9% (+1)
Other 12% (-4)
National Press Club at 12.30PM on the ABC – Albo.
“ “If the Labor Party is changing the rules, and taxing and taxing and taxing your superannuation, why will people invest in super, it’s not just the people who have superannuation funds that will face high taxes,” he said.’
Oh dear. He we go again.
Hope the ALP is prpared for this shit this time.”
_____
Christ! If labor does it now, to take effect on 1 July 2023 then by the time of the next election it will be clear to everyone that the changes will only adversely effect a small portion of folk, so the ability of a scare campaign to amplify proposed and prospective changes into a general retirement tax or even a death tax is muted.
If Labor is to break election promises on measures to preserve and enhance the national revenue take, then now is the time. Forget scrapping S3 – $250+ billion over 10 years is chump change when compared to what can be gained by taking a surgeons scalpel through the host of Howard era tax concessions / tax expenditures (and that of his political progeny – Hockey/Morrison/Fry-the-planet). In fact – as I have long argued the Government should use “the carrot” of S3 to justify the excising of the fat from the tax concession racket: “a grand bargain”.
Another lovely intervention by the Commissioner re best available evidence.
The Commissioner, dripping with sarcasm, just remarked, “Another case of best available evidence. Mr Rosen?”
So the LNP candidate for Aston is a blow-in! By all indications will never live in the electorate.
Where is the outrage, remember Fowler, a new angle every day to dump on such insulting treatment of the local voters.
How long will it take to even mention it? Will the ABC invite her husband on to Insiders again?
The Commissioner has HAD ENOUGH!
She asked that if all robodebt victims had simply responded with a stat dec that they had properly declared their income, would all of thier debts would have been zeroed.
We will have reached peak News Corp if James Campbell in The Hun writes an article with the headline WHY YOU NEED TO VOTE FOR ME about his own wife.
Themunz,
Give it about 12 hours. I’m sure if she’s a new ltd columnist then there’s going to be STACKs off scomo/fberg boosting bullshit that she’s going to be slammed with.
I would also bet there’s a lot of Anti-Dan, anti lockdown junk by her aswell. Just a hunch.
The Wage Price Index (WPI) rose by 0.8 per cent in the December quarter, which helped to lift annual growth to 3.3 per cent for the year ending December.
Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics, said: “The increase in hourly wage rates for the December 2022 quarter was lower than the increase for the September quarter (0.8 per cent compared to 1.1 per cent). It was, however, higher than any December quarter increase across the last decade. This follows on from the September and June 2022 quarters which were also higher than their comparable quarters back to 2012. In combination these quarterly increases have resulted in the highest annual growth in hourly wages since December quarter 2012.”
https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/annual-wage-growth-lifts-33-december-quarter-2022
Themunz says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 12:19 pm
So the LNP candidate for Aston is a blow-in! By all indications will never live in the electorate.
Where is the outrage, remember Fowler, a new angle every day to dump on such insulting treatment of the local voters.
How long will it take to even mention it? Will the ABC invite her husband on to Insiders again?
——————————————————————————————
Surely the Libs wouldn’t parachute a candidate into Aston, and particularly not one so closely related to News Corp, would they? 😯
Witness skewered.
Way back when legal aid lawyer for Materston said the reason for wiping her debt was they believed her affidavit. She just said she had reported accurately.
He had never seen that before.
Holmes asks if all people had to do to deal with matter was make a stat dec saying they had declared income correctly.
Answering her own question “that wouldn’t have a snowballs chance in hell” of being accepted.
Witness tries to explain breach of procedure in Masterton as sort of commonsense approach.
Really they were just desperate to not find themselves in front of a judge because there was Australian Government Solicitor advice they were in trouble.
What a tangled web they wove in their deception.
‘WeWantPaul says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 10:59 am
So firstly with all the inane and insane frothing at the mouth against Xi, we have Queensland changing the law to criminalise and lock up more children, where we know institutionalising children is a massive recipe for failure, wtf is wrong with Labor in Queensland, and we have NSW police raiding peaceful protesters and dragging them to jail in the middle of the night. Granted they were released after 4 hours on very strict conditions, rather than summarily executed, but NSW police seem to be so out of control on an insane level.
If we don’t like Xi shouldn’t we be moving our society away from the kind of things he believes in rather than incrementally embracing them?’
—————————–
LOL. You have NFI.
If you cross Xi you run the risk of getting a bullet to the back of the head. Naturally, fair is only fair, and your family is dunned for the cost of the bullet.
China does not publicize its execution numbers but it is thought that these are running well in excess of 5,000 a year. A disproportionate number of these turn out to be Xi’s political enemies.
You have a 99% chance of being convicted once you reach the trial stage. Once locked up you become cheap slave labour. Hard labour means hard labour. Plus, you need to keep an eye on your kidneys, etc, because the prisons have repeatedly been targeted for organ ‘harvesting’.
Other than the old bullet in the back of the head routine, people just disappear. No questions expected or answered!
If you are a Uigher, ALL of the above bets are off. Millions of families, men, women and children have been utterly shattered.
Posted without a comment from me
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/22/media-companies-lose-bid-to-name-high-profile-man-charged-with-queensland
Super (and indeed our whole system of retirement income) badly needs reform.
Super was bastardized to a stupendous extent by Howard and Costello.
Morrison turned it into a short term sugar hit lolly bag for which the dudded punters will, in due course, pay with an impoverished retirement.
Meh. Just another complete Coalition shambles that needs reform.
Let’s cross fingers that the the dynamic duo of Dutton and Bandt won’t delay, block, or otherwise fuck up this reform along with all the other reforms they are delaying or blocking completely.
Trump Grand Jury
Asked whether the jurors had recommended indicting Mr. Trump, Ms. Kohrs gave a cryptic answer: “You’re not going to be shocked. It’s not rocket science,” adding “you won’t be too surprised.”
“We definitely started with the first phone call, the call to Secretary Raffensperger that was so publicized,” said Ms. Kohrs, whom The Associated Press first named and spoke with on Tuesday about the election meddling investigation.
“I will tell you that if the judge releases the recommendations, it is not going to be some giant plot twist,” she added. “You probably have a fair idea of what may be in there. I’m trying very hard to say that delicately.”
After the break, the commissioner comes back with legal icing on the cake of her previous intervention. She means business!
Lots to unpack in this revealing opinion survey across several countries about attitudes to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, from the the European Council on Foreign Relations:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/21/war-in-ukraine-defining-new-world-order-says-thinktank
First, a little on the ECFR: “ECFR is a private not-for-profit organization that relies on donations. It was originally established with the support of Open Society Foundations, Communitas Foundation and Fundación Para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior”.
Now, the finding I want to focus upon measured public support for “war until Ukraine recovers its territory” versus “negotiated peace ASAP with Ukraine giving up land to Russia”:
EU: UKR to regain all territory 38%; UKR to give RUS land to stop war 30%; neither 32%
UK: UKR to regain all territory 44%; UKR to give RUS land to stop war 22%; neither 34%
China: UKR to regain all territory 23%; UKR to give RUS land to stop war 31%; neither 46%
India: UKR to regain all territory 30%; UKR to give RUS land to stop war 54%; neither 16%
What stands out is India’s strong leaning towards “peace ASAP, through UKR giving RUS land if necessary”. No other public measured here expresses such a decisive view as this. I wonder how India’s own experience of such a dispute on their own border (Kashmir) has generated such a decisive response. For this to be true, they must see Russia as being in a analogous position with respect to Ukraine as they have with respect to Kashmir. (I wonder, also, if this would entail them seeing Pakistan as analogous to “the West” in this comparison?)
Whatever, I note that India seems as unable to see legitimate agency for Ukraine as they are to seeing legitimate agency for Kashmiris.
Mr Ffrench has just thrown Ms Campbell and Ms Golightly under the bus, saying that her presence would likely have changed the dynamics in such a way that would prevent the proper evaluation of issues. He indicated that the culture and environment at the time would have inhibited this.
WOW!
Enough Already says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 12:39 pm
Lots to unpack in this revealing opinion survey across several countries about attitudes to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, from the the European Council on Foreign Relations:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/21/war-in-ukraine-defining-new-world-order-says-thinktank
First, a little on the ECFR: “ECFR is a private not-for-profit organization that relies on donations. It was originally established with the support of Open Society Foundations, Communitas Foundation and Fundación Para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior”.
Now, the finding I want to focus upon measured public support for “war until Ukraine recovers its territory” versus “negotiated peace ASAP with Ukraine giving up land to Russia”:
EU: UKR to regain all territory 38%; UKR to give RUS land to stop war 30%; neither 32%
UK: UKR to regain all territory 44%; UKR to give RUS land to stop war 22%; neither 34%
China: UKR to regain all territory 23%; UKR to give RUS land to stop war 31%; neither 46%
India: UKR to regain all territory 30%; UKR to give RUS land to stop war 54%; neither 16%
———————————————————————————————-
Of course I’m no seer but as this conflict shows little sign of being resolved within the next 2-3 years (by my estimation) it’s likely that the figures suggesting negotiation will likely increase during this period. It’s also fairly certain that the tempo of the war cannot be maintained by either side nor can the tempo of supplies by Ukraine’s supporters. IMHO it’s unlikely that Russia can win the war though it can continue to impose enormous damage on Ukraine. Equally, it’s unlikely that Ukraine can inflict enough damage on Russian forces to compel Putin to withdraw to borders as defined prior to 2014.
If my analysis is correct or even close to correct, it’s highly likely that at some stage in the future both sides will be forced to negotiate and neither will be satisfied with the outcome. Victory wi not be the victory perceived or desired by either side. This is the nature of wars that cannot be unequivocally won militarily as exhaustion on all sides, including supporters, sets in.
NATO will not allow Russia to win as it’s clearly detrimental to NATO’s interests but nor is it willing to destroy Russia’s military industrial complex as this would mean attacking Russia on a significant scale and likely lead to continental warfare as Russia subsequently sought to defend itself. Equally, Russia will not attack a NATO country for fear of initiating a war it knows it cannot win against NATO.
We’re back to talking about fear and loathing in the DHS.
People maybe were afraid to speak up because leadership was determined to proceed.
Golighlty and Campbell under the bus.
Again.
Further to the ECFR survey reported in https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/21/war-in-ukraine-defining-new-world-order-says-thinktank:
“In India, for example, 87% of respondents said they regarded the US as an “ally” or “partner”, while 82% felt the same about the EU, 79% about Russia and Britain, and 59% about Turkey. Only China was seen as a “rival” or “adversary” (75%).”
Clearly, Indians do not want a world polarised between NATO and Russia. This is a laudable desire. Unfortunately for Ukraine, it looks like Indians are prepared to see Ukrainians gifted to Russia as the price that might have to be paid for a detente.
Ding! Dong! The cat’s been belled by Mr FFFFrench!
People maybe were afraid to speak up because leadership was determined to proceed.
Golighlty and Campbell under the bus.
Again.
_____________
Which leads to the obvious question of why were they so inclined.
Golightly is convenient. Campbell is still able to defend. She is the lynchpin.
BK
I wonder if when Ms Campbell returns she will have read the room and will persist in her “I didn’t know” defence.
Perhaps at some time counsel assisting may indicate to her that she may be subject to (very) adverse findings and she might need a better explanation.
edit: and Musolino is in it up to her eyebrows.
BK says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 1:07 pm
Ms. Campbell being a darling of the Liberal Government.
Was Ms. Campbell idyllically driven to support Governments desire to blame & punish the victim
Cronus @ Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 1:05 pm:
“Of course I’m no seer but as this conflict shows little sign of being resolved within the next 2-3 years (by my estimation) it’s likely that the figures suggesting negotiation will likely increase during this period.”
===============
Cronus, yes, I see these “negotiate” numbers as more of a floor and the “press on” numbers as more of a ceiling, than the reverse. I do think it remains to be seen how solid support for either position is, though, in the light of battlefield developments over the coming spring/summer. A sudden and large advance by Ukraine would likely see support for “negotiate” slip, as I think that support is largely based on the judgement that Ukraine’s task of territorial liberation is beyond them. Conversely, continued stalemate would likely see “press on” support slip, as that support presupposes an actual viable pathway to a Ukrainian military expulsion of Russian forces.
S. Simpsonsays:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 12:22 pm
We will have reached peak News Corp if James Campbell in The Hun writes an article with the headline WHY YOU NEED TO VOTE FOR ME about his own wife
_________________________________
It would seem – For Labor stooges a woman is only an extension of her husband. Appalling sexism.
Proud Boys’ efforts to call Trump to their defense will blow up in their faces: prosecutor
As they stand trial for seditious conspiracy over their role in the January 6 attack, members of the far-right group the Proud Boys are trying to subpoena former President Donald Trump as their “star witness” — but that effort is doomed to fail, wrote former federal prosecutor Glenn Kirschner on Tuesday for MSNBC.
Trump has previously made public statements encouraging the Proud Boys, famously telling them to “stand back and stand by” in a presidential debate. And he has been accused by Democratic officials and some Republicans of inciting the Capitol attack by pushing election conspiracy theories and telling people to “fight like hell” at a speech on the National Mall just ahead of the riot or “you’re not going to have a country anymore.” The former president has subsequently claimed he never meant this literally.
The Proud Boys are not alone; numerous other January 6 defendants have tried to excuse their crimes by claiming Trump gave them permission, or somehow tricked them, into storming the Capitol. So far, judges have granted little if any leniency in response to this argument.
Rossmcg
As this has been unfolding I have been thinking that the Commission will put it to Campbell that, in her own interests, it would be better for her to come clean.
Doesn’t live in the area.
Selected by the central committee.
Does Roshena Campbell’s selection by the Liberal party constitute parachuting into the eat.
Is she going to be crucified as KK was?
Come on Lars Von Trier, I expect column inches on the parachuting of candidates.
The local branch did not get a vote. Is there still a local branch has to be answered first.
BK
yep. I am of the view that Campbell and Golightly went so far down the rabbit hole to do what the government wanted that when it went pear shaped their only response was to try and tough to out.
They would have known that the Government would back the program no matter what (as they did).
To ignore the mounting criticism and legal challenges as they did and try and cover up and obfuscate shows how corrupted by the system they, and some of their subordinates, had become.
Enough Already says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 1:14 pm
Cronus @ Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 1:05 pm:
“Of course I’m no seer but as this conflict shows little sign of being resolved within the next 2-3 years (by my estimation) it’s likely that the figures suggesting negotiation will likely increase during this period.”
===============
Cronus, yes, I see these “negotiate” numbers as more of a floor and the “press on” numbers as more of a ceiling, than the reverse. I do think it remains to be seen how solid support for either position is, though, in the light of battlefield developments over the coming spring/summer. A sudden and large advance by Ukraine would likely see support for “negotiate” slip, as I think that support is largely based on the judgement that Ukraine’s task of territorial liberation is beyond them. Conversely, continued stalemate would likely see “press on” support slip, as that support presupposes an actual viable pathway to a Ukrainian military expulsion of Russian forces.
—————————————————————————————-
Barring unforeseen circumstances that are not implausible, it’s unfortunately a highly complex and vexed situation with few practical, entirely satisfactory outcomes. Sadly, even if Ukraine was to undertake a highly successful Spring/Summer offensive, this might only be sufficient to force Russia to the negotiating table with Ukraine at least being able to negotiate from a position of equals rather than from a position of weakness.
Adding to the complexity is that neither side will willingly engage in negotiations but rather, will need to be ‘persuaded’ to do so by selected representatives of the international community. Ironically, this may require China to persuade Russia and America/NATO to persuade Ukraine. This scenario requires a lot more water to flow under the bridge. It’s unlikely that peace will ever be declared but rather that a hiatus via a DMZ be imposed.
Just on super changes without taking it as a policy to an election, a few points:
1. What a load of horseshit
2. There are numerous examples during the MTM years of fiddling with super settings, such as capping at $1.6m; determining that defined benefits would be calculated at 16x annual benefit for the sake of the cap; numerous fiddling with concessional benefit limits; relaxing what could and couldn’t go into SMSF funds etc etc
3. Any ‘tightening up super rorts’ as a policy for an election will descend into the trademark hysterical scare campaign by Murdoch and his running dogs – tax your retirement, Labor wants to empty out your life savings, the economy will collapse…. Writes itself.
4. The Liberals and Murdoch goons need to just keep whingeing and suck it up.
5. If the Parliament as elected agrees capping tax concessions at $3-5 million, that’s what our system of government allows for.
Re: submarines, I’m no defence expert, but I understand the RAN has a proud history of quality second hand purchases from a bankrupt UK.
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/worldtoday/thousands-ferried-out-to-hmas-choules/11839310
Mr ffFrench just threw Ms Mussolino under the bus – European rivalries?
From Federal to SA politics Santos made $3 billion after tax in 2022 a 220% increase in profit!
https://indaily.com.au/news/business/2023/02/22/santos-profit-windfall-as-energy-demand-and-prices-rise/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=InDaily%20Lunchtime%20%2022%20February%202023&utm_content=InDaily%20Lunchtime%20%2022%20February%202023+CID_047fa46ba8cc7c7233aeb200123023b1&utm_source=EDM&utm_term=READ%20MORE
Regardless of debates over climate change SA gas royalties must go up. Preferably a sliding scale to reflect windfall profits. Talk to WA!
If Malinauskas needs a billion for health he has just found it.
Lars Von Trier @ #132 Wednesday, February 22nd, 2023 – 1:14 pm
S0 far nothing about this on the Herald Sun landing page. Give them time though!
Cronus @ Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 1:31 pm:
=================
Yes, I can’t see this ending without a DMZ between Ukraine and Russia. Hopefully, such a DMZ will be within two lines, equal distances either side of the internationally recognised border between the two countries. Right now, I don’t think events have shaken out sufficiently to permit any valid judgements on just where such lines will be, but that’s my hope.
Edit: question – how wide do you think the eventual DMZ will need to be?
‘MelbourneMammoth says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 9:54 am
“Shame that Labor PM is effectively a tory.”
– Didn’t you know that “Tony Blair” is an anagram of “Tory in Lab.”
Every Labo(u)r prime minister in the Western World since Hawke has been effectively a Tory. Even Jacinda Ardern. Elections in the modern neoliberal era have never been a choice between the centre-left and centre-right; they have been between the centre-right and far-right – and the fulcrum moves further to the right with each passing year.’
=========================================
You are 100% correct, of course. The lines in the sand are becoming more and more clear.
I do hope the Greens stop their feckless and meandering pandering to the Tories.
The Greens MUST support a Treaty before a Voice. We have heard nothing but Treaty Now! from Bandt. Time to show some true Greens grit! Fuck the Voice which is nothing but a Tory truk, comrade! Treaty Now!
The Greens MUST block all the Tory attempts to reach 43/30 because this is a FAKE target and even it were not a FAKE target it is not nearly good enough. It is time for the Greens to show true Greens grit and join with the other Tories to block any and all Tory attempts to pretend to take climate action.
The Greens should absolutely refuse to join any vote for the Tories until the Tories destroy the following industries: defence, gas, cotton, almond, olive, horse racing, rodeos, dairy, feed lots, cattle, sheep, uranium and coal. Oh and do not forget glyphosate. All these are unmitigated same old, same old EVIL TORY TRUCS.
The Greens MUST continue to delay and block any and all attempts by the Tories to do anything for aged people, lower paid workers or women or refugees or the environment. Because it is ALL TORY SAME OLD SAME OLD.
I do wish the pathetic, gormless, gutless and shouting parliamentary Greens would stop mouthing anti-Tory truths and start acting like they actually believed more in their principles than in their quarter of a million year TORY-DELIVERED pay packets.
I notice that a truckload of suddenly brave and courageous witnesses are prepared to throw Ms Golightly under a bus, post mortem.
Such heroes.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #104 Wednesday, February 22nd, 2023 – 12:12 pm
Only a chump would fall for that one.
Here it is in terms you might understand …
Stage 3 tax cuts = cost of Australia addressing global warming. Plus chump change.
Still don’t get it? Then how about this one …
Stage 3 tax cuts = cost of 2 dozen nuclear submarines. Plus chump change.
Surely that last one is of interest to your mates in the Tankies and Subbies Union?
Go Albo go National Press Club!!
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 1:44 pm
I notice that a truckload of suddenly brave and courageous witnesses are prepared to throw Ms Golightly under a bus, post mortem.
Such heroes.
_______________________________
From what I know of Golightly, through the RC and otherwise, she was a workplace psychopath. It’s a great shame she died because she should be front and centre in answering for Robodebt in this Royal Commission. Campbell is still well and truly breathing though and I cannot see her coming off lightly.
This RC must be more that looking for as many people to blame as possible. It really has to go to changing the culture of the APS that has been so distorted and deranged since the rodent took power and sacked 6 secretaries (one of them allegedly by accident).
I want my stage 3 tax cut. It will go some way towards making up for the interest I pay for my mortgage. I have endured enough suffering and rental to save up for a deposit for a modest house which I finally bought at the age of forty-one. Me and my fellow battlers with a “1” in front of their annual wage are NOT rich. We are not even “well-to-do”. Maybe phase out the cut for the really high earners (400k and above).