The Age/Herald brings the monthly Resolve Strategic poll of federal voting intention, which has Labor down two on the primary vote to 40%, the Coalition up two to 31%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation down one to 5%. No two-party preferred is reported, but this would pan out to around 58-42 based on preference flows from last year, in from around 60-40 last time. Anthony Albanese’s approval rating (very good plus good) is down four on last month to 56%, with disapproval (very poor plus poor) up five to 30%; Peter Dutton is up one to 29% and down one to 45%; and Anthony Albanese’s lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister is 55-23, in from 55-20. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604. Further results published today including a finding that 50% expect economic conditions to worsen over the coming year, compared with 18% for improvement and 24% for staying the same.
The fortnightly Essential Research poll, which does not exclude undecided from its voting intention numbers, has Labor at 33% and the Coalition at 30% on the primary vote, both unchanged on a fortnight ago. The Greens are down three from an anomalous peak last time to 14% and One Nation are steady on 6%, with undecided at 8%. The 2PP+ measure had Labor down four to 51%, the Coalition up two to 42% and undecided up three to 8%. As noted in the previous post, Anthony Albanese’s approval is down two on a month ago to 53%, and his disapproval is up three to 34%. The full report, featuring questions on economic issues and interest rate rises, is here.
The Victorian Liberal Party’s administrative committee has as expected endorsed barrister Roshena Campbell as its candidate for the April 1 Aston by-election. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Campbell received 13 votes, with former state upper house MP Cathrine Burnett-Wake and oncologist Ranjana Srivastava on three each.
Has Mr. Ffrench thrown himself under the bus?
MelbourneMammoth @ #150 Wednesday, February 22nd, 2023 – 1:53 pm
Awww, diddums.
Is Campbell a blow in? Yes
Will affect her chances? Maybe.
It will have put some of the local Liberal party members noses out of joint. Without doubt some of them were planning on replacing Tudge when he retired. Others will be annoyed because they merely didn’t get a choice in their candidate.
That said as it is a by-election the party will be able to call upon members from elsewhere in Melbourne to make up for any reduction in local effort. In a general election, there is more reliance on the local party to work the campaign as the state party has to deploy what extra resources they have on all the little spot fires that occur when you have dozens of candidates blundering their way through 5 weeks of being in the spotlight.
Then of course there is how the local voters feel about a person who has declared that they have spent their entire life living in the inner city since the age of 20 representing them. All areas have an element of local pride, but it is usually stronger in those areas that have existed for awhile and less in the brand new areas. Aston is one of those areas that has been around for awhile and therefore there is a bit of local pride, being in the foothills of the Dandenongs.
This is the type of rubbish reporting we get from our media.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-21/labor-stop-people-raiding-their-superannuation-tackle-tax-breaks/102000680
Nowhere does it distinguish between SMSF’s and the rest of the sector.
I would expect that almost all super accounts with more than $1 million are in SMSFs.
How those funds are invested are subject to rules but they may never include the super funds “sector”.
The “funds sector” services all those not with SMSFs.
In the funds sector “Industry Funds” have outperformed the rest of the sector both in terms of gross returns and fees.
Employers duding their employees is a very big problem with very minor penalties.
Labor always has a mandate to protect workers interests.
An interesting discussion here.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/21/war-in-ukraine-defining-new-world-order-says-thinktank
I note how the establishments senior Kings Guard writer David Crowe and the Resolve pollster frame their questions as a red shirt v blue shirt choice.
In the big picture, the reality is there’s only a cigarette papers difference in policy between the two.
Such a convoluted polity controlled by the big corporations and designed to screw the majority of the population.
Former Bowman MP Andrew Laming is considering a comeback in state politics. Its reported he’s considering running for preselection for state seat Oodgeroo held by the LNP’s Mark Robinson. He won’t be in contention for the marginal seat of Redlands though. Robinson has never really been seen a star performer in the state LNP. He put his hand up for the LNP leadership once in 2017, but he was no chance of becoming leader.
“Former Bowman MP Andrew Laming is considering running for one of three state seats, including Oodgeroo held by the LNP’s Mark Robinson since 2009.
Mr Laming was asked about his plans to take on the blue-ribbon LNP seat after announcing he would host a dinner forum inside the Oodgeroo electorate at Wellington Point to discuss youth justice next week.
The long-serving Liberal MP, who decided not to recontest the federal seat of Bowman at last year’s federal election, missed his chance to be nominated as a candidate for preselection in the seat of Redlands last week.
However, he said he was still keen to contribute within Redland city and would also consider the state seats of Springwood or Capalaba, which overlap the city boundaries.
LNP nominations for preselection for the state seat of Redland closed on Friday.
The bayside electorate is one of five state seats for which the party has opened nominations.
It is expected that the LNP will endorse former Redland Chamber of Commerce president Rebecca Young as its candidate for the seat of Redlands, currently held by Labor’s Kim Richards.
Mr Robinson said it would not be appropriate to comment on LNP preselection and phone calls to Liberal National Party headquarters went unanswered.
“I’m committed to helping or running in the 2024 State election, but it’s still very early days,” he said.
Mr Laming, who has reportedly made numerous phone calls to LNP preselectors this year, said he was in constant touch with Mr Robinson, who was unavailable to make Monday night’s youth justice forum.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/questnews/redlands/andrew-laming-eyes-off-state-seats-after-missing-lnp-nomination-in-redlands/news-story/24ff29d022edaa4233db799cb7bd6a85
Boerwar @ Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 2:00 pm
“An interesting discussion here.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/21/war-in-ukraine-defining-new-world-order-says-thinktank”
==============
BW – yes, Cronus and I were discussing this upthread a bit. What do you think of the way India sticks out like a sore thumb in its public’s decisiveness on the question of “negotiate now for peace” versus “war until Russia expelled”?
Enough Already says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 1:40 pm
Cronus @ Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 1:31 pm:
=================
Yes, I can’t see this ending without a DMZ between Ukraine and Russia. Hopefully, such a DMZ will be within two lines, equal distances either side of the internationally recognised border between the two countries. Right now, I don’t think events have shaken out sufficiently to permit any valid judgements on just where such lines will be, but that’s my hope.
Edit: question – how wide do you think the eventual DMZ will need to be?
———————————————————————————————
In many ways the width of a DMZ (or similar) is less relevant now than it might’ve been 50-60 years ago. The intention used to be to render attacks by infantry and armour difficult through depth but this became a moot point with the advent of long range missiles.
In any event, if an attacker is sufficiently serious to launch an attack through such a zone (ie: Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982 and again Israel’s Operation Grapes of Wrath in Lebanon in 1996) were both examples whereby an attacking force merely ignored UN forces and agreed mission boundaries.
If the ‘DMZ’ is too large it requires too many forces to patrol. It’s probably better to be prudently placed to allow for the best possible observation of both sides which doesn’t always accord readily with existing geographical boundaries so the DMZ may be different widths at different locations.
Northern, Eastern and Southern Ukraine is a very long border so I suspect that the DMZ would be as narrow as feasible, perhaps only a couple of kilometres wide in parts to ensure space between the two nations. Even so, an international force would likely exceed 50k soldiers fully armed and with protective equipment and vehicles initially. Another financially costly undertaking by the international community and still not without risks.
Boerwar @ #155 Wednesday, February 22nd, 2023 – 1:30 pm
There has been talk for some time of the global economic order being upturned by China and the emerging economies. Not just the economic share, but in far more fundamental economic ways. This is/was partly driven by some pretty unpleasant US international policies (Washington consensus) and the behaviour of many multinationals. However, the US has generally had wise diplomatic antenna and clever enough to readjust its position to maintain its supremacy. And as much as people talk about India and CHina rearranging the fundamentals, the world (including powers in those countries) isnt just going to jump to that call – China and India do not tick the boxes that the US does when it comes to what the major and minor stakeholders look for.
So yes, the order does and will get stirred and the US would be wise to adjust to it. But overturning the order would more likely come from malaise within. Which is why some international actors are trying hard to disrupt US politics.
Enough Already says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 2:07 pm
Boerwar @ Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 2:00 pm
“An interesting discussion here.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/21/war-in-ukraine-defining-new-world-order-says-thinktank”
==============
BW – yes, Cronus and I were discussing this upthread a bit. What do you think of the way India sticks out like a sore thumb in its public’s decisiveness on the question of “negotiate now for peace” versus “war until Russia expelled”?
——————————————————————————————-
Because of their sheer size, India is one of very few nations that can literally afford to be non-aligned. It suits its culture and most importantly its economy to do so. There is no real imperative (at this point) for it to choose friend from foe so it won’t, the status quo suits it. It’s this ambiguity that makes it an unreliable defence partner and nor does it really seek to be in a defence partnership which immediately raises questions about the effectiveness of the QUAD. India can afford to be all about India.
Albo is at pains to tell everyone how powerless the Voice to parliament will be.
That’s the big part of the problem re the lack of self-determination..
Only truth and treaty will address this.
LOL Rex Douglas
Start with legislating the purpose of superannuation – which the government has done
There is a prescribed minimum Allocated Pension draw, that prescribed minimum increasing as you age
Your balance multiplied by the prescribed minimum equals your Allocated Pension (and you can take more than the minimum)
Successively, due to the GFC then the Pandemic, the minimum has been halved (and remains halved currently)
The reason for this is that the double whammy of falling markets reducing your accrued balance then the taking of an Allocated Pension, so your balance going backwards means a reduced Allocated Pension
So successive governments have given consideration to sustainability (and not paying the Aged Pension or part Aged Pension with benefits)
What is too much?
Good question
You of course to aspire to continue to live your lifestyle post retirement – in fact even live a better life style because you are not going to a place of business every day, so, for one, you may travel more because you have the freedom to do so
Hence you provision for retirement- assisted by government and 15% tax rates on contributions and earnings
Plus YOUR (because it is your money) Allocated Pension is tax free to a certain balance in the fund (as is the Aged Pension)
And everyone is different
Hence the comment “good question”
What you do not do is to bring people down to a lowest common denominator (as the Greens propose)
What is interesting is that the government has very recently changed eligibility for a Commonwealth Seniors Health Care Card to a joint income of $144,000- per annum
That income excludes Franking Credits
So, rule of thumb, $3 Million (so both partners with $1.5 Million each) at 5% PA delivering $144,000- PA (tax free)
This is also around the $1.6 Million cap per account – above that paying 15% tax on earnings in the Fund
The ALP back in the day put forward a tax rate of 15% on any income of over $100,000- PA (to be indexed to inflation)
So the first $100,000- of your Allocated Pension tax free, then 15% tax on any figure over this
Unfortunately, because the ALP put it the Tories rejected it – hence the unwieldy $1.6 Million cap (indexed)
Does anyone have a feel for how influential GetUp is these days?
I get their emails, and have been trying to decode whether they will support “The Voice”.
On their latest email, I divine that the answer is “Not unless the referendum question is developed by the GetUp indigenous team themselves, and the parliament agree that this is the question on the ballot paper to which we answer yes or no”.
The more the narrow lefties tell the world that the Voice is powerless the more right-wing bullshit about a third chamber of Parliament is knocked on the head.
Go you good thing Rex!
So cracking down on super – lasted all of about 24 hours.
capital can rest easy.
The Commissioner is on a roll, showing bloodhound tendencies.
BK
I reckon when former Chief Justice says “this is in breach of policy” government lawyer should agree.
The Commissioner, at the end of that classic drive-by, admitted to her exasperation.
mundo @ #100 Wednesday, February 22nd, 2023 – 11:58 am
And it looks like you’ll be there to be their Desdemona supporter again. 😐
(Desdemona’s tragic and eventually fatal flaw, was that when faced with adversity, (s)he crumbled)
Rossmcg
The Commissioner is magnificent!
So readers can believe what disinformation being peddled by the Lars Team, or take Albo at his word on superannuation…
One of the things that we have said is that if you look at projections going forward, potentially the concessions in superannuation will be higher cost to the budget than the aged pension is down the track. Now, it is right to look at sustainability of progress.
We said that we would not have any major changes in superannuation, and that is certainly our intention. But we’ll receive the review and the report into superannuation. We think that it is important that this continue, and that we do have a debate about the purposing of superannuation, of reinforcing what it is there for, as opposed to, we saw during the election campaign, a last minute, or last week commitment or promise from the Coalition. One that we rejected and one that we won’t be proceeding down that track with.
Michelle Grattan from The Conversation pressed the PM further on superannuation:
Just to take up this question of the purpose of superannuation – if and when you get a definition of that purpose, a new definition, would that rule out the sort of policy that the Coalition offered? In other words, would that purpose be legally tight? Or would there still be flexibility for that sort of promise?
Albanese:
Well, that’s something that pre-empts us receiving it, and then determining how we will proceed once we have that.
If you look at what occurred during the pandemic, where, for so many people, particularly younger people, and younger women, they were left with zero in their superannuation accounts because money was withdrawn during that. Now, that was a tough time. But down the track, that is going to cost much more for those people and for their quality of life than the amounts that were withdrawn, which is why we expressed concern at the time about how that was being used.
So, we’ll receive the report. One of the things about my government is that sometimes to the frustration of some people in this room, and I understand that you’ve got a job to do as well. But our job is to act in an orderly fashion, to receive advice, to consider it through a proper cabinet process and then to make announcements. And that was part of the theme I hope came through in the speech today. It is a different way of trying to frame the way that government acts beyond the 24-hour media cycle, and sometimes, that can cause political issues. But I think it’s a price worth paying because you get better policy and outcomes if you react that way. And that’s how we intend to deal with this issue as well.
Russian units keep targeting Ukrainian civilians:
“ Russian forces fired at a center of Kherson with Grad MLRS, killing at least five people and injuring 16 others, including a 16-year-old girl, Kherson Oblast Military Administration reported on Feb. 21.
According to the military, the attack targeted Kherson’s residential areas, critical infrastructure facilities, a local market, a kindergarten, a hospital, a bus stop, garages, and cars.”
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/update-5-killed-16-wounded-in-russian-shelling-of-kherson-on-feb-21
They Just Won’t Stop.
I haven’t watched the whole thing, but is it fair to say that Mr Fffrench was brought in to kill and bury RoboDebt?
Ukrainian military, Ukrainian partisans, disgruntled Russians or careless smokers strike deep behind Russia’s lines:
“Eleven explosions were heard in Russian-occupied Mariupol on the evening of Feb. 21, Mariupol City Council reported.
The first explosion was reportedly heard at around 10:30 p.m.
Preliminary information indicates that Mariupol’s Zhovtnevyi and Kalmiuskyi districts were likely hit, according to the city council.
The impact of the explosions is currently being verified.”
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/explosions-heard-in-mariupol
Cronus, EA
The major axes have always been Pakistan/China and India/Russia with the US vacillating.
Now that Pakistan has figured out that any war with India is a lose, THE existential threat to India is China and not Russia. China has nibbled away at Indian territory. It currently claims significant swathes of India. It is engaged in highly-threatening strategic road building, the infiltration of Bhutan and active destabilization of the security situation in India’s Northeastern provinces. Further the belt and road initiatives into South-east Asia, particularly in Ceylon and Myanmmar as well as the now-constant presence of PLAN units in the Indian Ocean, are a direct practical increase in China’s strategic encirclement of India.
If anything, Russia has some sort of strategic value as a source of weapons and as a counterweight to China.
IMO, the QUAD is a geo-strategic nonsense.
A big development out of the US, if true:
“ The U.S. is inclining toward sending long-range missiles and fighter jets to Ukraine, Michael McCaul, the Republican chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said, according to Reuters.
McCaul said the Biden administration and the National Security Council have yet to decide “how fast and what weapons” to deliver to Ukraine.
“But I’m seeing increasing momentum towards getting the artillery and planes in,” he said. “And in any event, we can start training the pilots now, so they’re ready.”
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-momentum-shifts-in-us-toward-providing-ukraine-with-long-range-missiles-fighter-jets
Signs that the West is starting to realise that Putin has launched a war which is existential, not only for Russia and Ukraine, but for the whole rules-based international order.
Those GRADs are a bit like a huge shotgun. They don’t know exactly where the individual rockets are going to land.
Prigoshin would presumably be eschewing window-cleaning as his next career move:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/22/wagner-mercenary-group-yevgeny-prigozhin-russia-army-chiefs-treason-ammunition-ukraine-war
Stuart Robert was told in July 2019 that the pressure was mounting. Witness said his response was “an opinion is just an opinion.”
he recalls that very clearly.
That sounds like Brother Stu. Thick as.
Well imagine if Rudd/Gillard had persevered with the mining tax – would have been a wonderful source of revenue for the budget.
As soon as Gina got up on the back of the Ute to demonstrate – Labor squibbed it.
Now super rorts – a touch of adverse publicity on super changes – Labor squibs it again.
Tell me this government isnt Swan 2.0. Meanwhile inflation and rates continue their upward march.
MM,
I hear where you are coming from, but I don’t agree.
That said, I am pretty confident that Labor are not going to wholesale scrap the S3 tax cuts, so it’s easy for me to claim the moral higher ground here.
“Maybe phase out the cut for the really high earners (400k and above).”
Now, that is a distinct possibility!
Rossmcg,
Stuart Robert is not thick, he’s venal as.
Will be interesting to see where Wagner goes from here. The age old problem with mercenary armies is that they’re susceptible to join the other team if the risk:reward is better.
Stay in the war on the losing side, where your allies are refusing to supply you and definitely have ‘just in case’ plans to assassinate you? Or come to an arrangement with Ukraine. One week going ‘red wedding’ on the Russian army, and then the USA sends you a shit load of money to piss off to the other side of the world somewhere
One more for ICAC…
Sydney’s growing pains: land rezoning a potential billion-dollar deal for developers after local council sidelined…
Within days of becoming minister for planning for the second time in December 2021, Roberts met with Walker Corp, which now employs Rob Vellar, the minister’s former chief of staff from 2015 to 2018, when he was previously in charge of planning.
It is not known if Vellar attended the meeting or was informed of the content of the discussion. Robert’s diary disclosure simply lists it as an “introductory meeting”. Neither Vellar nor Roberts responded specifically to questions from Guardian Australia querying if Walker Corp had lobbied the minister, although the department was clear that no lobbying by any developer affected decision making.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/21/sydneys-growing-pains-land-rezoning-a-potential-billion-dollar-deal-for-developers-after-local-council-sidelined
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 2:59 pm
So cracking down on super – lasted all of about 24 hours.
capital can rest easy.
——————————————————————————-
Or alternatively, the whinging and whining by the lobby groups and 1% lasted just 24 hours. Labor can rest easy.
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 3:45 pm
Rossmcg,
Stuart Robert is not thick, he’s venal as.
———————
the 2 aren’t mutually exclusive
Cronus
I am confident Labor will do something about the large sums in SMSFs that are more to do with tax and estate planning and reduce the incentives for others to accumulate them.
All they’ve done today is, I think, say they’re not going to engage in running commentary where they are asked by a different reporter every other hour to rule this in or rule that out.
I regard that as sensible, not capitulation.
Lars von Trier
. Meanwhile inflation and rates continue their upward march.
Well, idiot, this ‘upward march’ is largely due to the squillions of dollars your good mates Morrison and Frydenberg poured into the economy during their last term in government. Remember that? Think “Back in the Black”.
The SACA’s put up a good contest but the Vic’s get the better of them, as you’d expect.
Sensible changes to superannuation are
current cap for tax free super is $1.7 million per person
can have excess in accumulation paying 15% tax on earnings
1. I can imagine that funds in accumulation will be capped at twice the current cap for tax free super so widows can roll their dead partners super back into accumulation
2. super funds pensions taxed at marginal income tax rates less 15%
Labor grow some balls!
Voice Endeavour says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 3:52 pm
Will be interesting to see where Wagner goes from here. The age old problem with mercenary armies is that they’re susceptible to join the other team if the risk:reward is better.
Stay in the war on the losing side, where your allies are refusing to supply you and definitely have ‘just in case’ plans to assassinate you? Or come to an arrangement with Ukraine. One week going ‘red wedding’ on the Russian army, and then the USA sends you a shit load of money to piss off to the other side of the world somewhere
———————————————————————————————
Having lost 30k of its convicts killed and typically three times that number injured means Wagner has lost approximately 100k soldiers. I wonder just how many now remain and are effective. I recall the Chechens (to the east and south) are hostile to Wagner and given Putin’s recent ambivalence towards Wagner, renders Warner’s situation as somewhat perilous. I’m not sure Yevgeny Prigozhin realises that his penchant for profile and notoriety is anathema to Putin and his failure at Bahkmut makes Prigozhin expendable. There can be only one Highlander.
What’s going to happen to airport at Badgery’s Creek?
I understand there will a bus service between Badgery’s Creek and Mascot like Macquarie Airports runs the bus service from city to Tullamarine and Avalon which gets caught in traffic on Fridays especially long weekends
I understand intrastate planes will use Badgery’s Creek
International and interstate planes will use Mascot
So if I fly from Melbourne to Newcastle, I would fly to Mascot then catch a bus to Badgery’s Creek to catch a Newcastle plane. The bus journey airport to airport would take 2 hours?, the train takes 2.5 hours
I believe the super account limit is increasing to $1.9M on 1/7/23.
Rossmcg says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 4:04 pm
Cronus
I am confident Labor will do something about the large sums in SMSFs that are more to do with tax and estate planning and reduce the incentives for others to accumulate them.
All they’ve done today is, I think, say they’re not going to engage in running commentary where they are asked by a different reporter every other hour to rule this in or rule that out.
I regard that as sensible, not capitulation.
——————————————————————————————
Agreed, I suspect the Coalition and its minority of supporters are unable to identify calm and mature governance for what it is. They see everything in terms of fear and extremes, it’s all they know, everything is Henry Penny chicken to them.
“What’s going to happen to airport at Badgery’s Creek?
I understand there will a bus service between Badgery’s Creek and Mascot like Macquarie Airports runs the bus service from city to Tullamarine and Avalon which gets caught in traffic on Fridays especially long weekends
I understand intrastate planes will use Badgery’s Creek
International and interstate planes will use Mascot
So if I fly from Melbourne to Newcastle, I would fly to Mascot then catch a bus to Badgery’s Creek to catch a Newcastle plane. The bus journey airport to airport would take 2 hours?, the train takes 2.5 hours”
That is just really bad government. It is insane.
billie @ #195 Wednesday, February 22nd, 2023 – 3:45 pm
Take a direct Melbourne to Newie flight?
Or wait for Cuds train to Newcastle.
Isnt there meant to be a train to Western Sydney Airport?