The Age/Herald brings the monthly Resolve Strategic poll of federal voting intention, which has Labor down two on the primary vote to 40%, the Coalition up two to 31%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation down one to 5%. No two-party preferred is reported, but this would pan out to around 58-42 based on preference flows from last year, in from around 60-40 last time. Anthony Albanese’s approval rating (very good plus good) is down four on last month to 56%, with disapproval (very poor plus poor) up five to 30%; Peter Dutton is up one to 29% and down one to 45%; and Anthony Albanese’s lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister is 55-23, in from 55-20. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604. Further results published today including a finding that 50% expect economic conditions to worsen over the coming year, compared with 18% for improvement and 24% for staying the same.
The fortnightly Essential Research poll, which does not exclude undecided from its voting intention numbers, has Labor at 33% and the Coalition at 30% on the primary vote, both unchanged on a fortnight ago. The Greens are down three from an anomalous peak last time to 14% and One Nation are steady on 6%, with undecided at 8%. The 2PP+ measure had Labor down four to 51%, the Coalition up two to 42% and undecided up three to 8%. As noted in the previous post, Anthony Albanese’s approval is down two on a month ago to 53%, and his disapproval is up three to 34%. The full report, featuring questions on economic issues and interest rate rises, is here.
The Victorian Liberal Party’s administrative committee has as expected endorsed barrister Roshena Campbell as its candidate for the April 1 Aston by-election. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Campbell received 13 votes, with former state upper house MP Cathrine Burnett-Wake and oncologist Ranjana Srivastava on three each.
Thanks muchly BK
“ Australia will avoid a recession this year but for many households it will feel like one, some of the nation’s top economists have predicted while warning the Reserve Bank’s aggressive interest rate rises are the largest economic risk. Shane Wright and Rachel Clun expand on this.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-tipped-to-avoid-recession-this-year-but-it-will-still-feel-like-one-for-many-20230227-p5cnsm.html”
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It escapes many of our economists, journalists and the Coalition that this is in fact the standard feeling for many Australian households and casualised singles, regardless of which year it is. This experience is becoming increasingly common in our society. The fact that interest rates and inflation have increased in 2023 simply means that even more Australians than usual are experiencing this stress.
A Russian spy plane worth £274 million has been severely damaged by partisans in Belarus.
The A-50 aircraft, which is used to identify and track targets for military operations, was rendered non-operational after local resistance members used drones to drop explosives on it, according to reports.
The Belarusian regime has let its airfields and land be used by Moscow to stage attacks on Ukraine.
Aaron Newton @ 7.35pm
As a committed Labor partisan, I am glad that you can see the folly of the current ALP campaign in NSW.
The narrowing margins in the recent polls suggest that too many voters have very short memories of the scandals and maladministration which have been the hallmark of this corrupt and out of touch government.
Gee I must be imagining the poster I have in my window which is extremely negative towards Dominic Perrottet and imagining the negative grass roots and social media campaign that is going with it. Hmm, also the finding from the last federal election that negative TV advertising against Albanese and Labor didn’t work as well as it used to. I think some people are viewing campaigns too much through their aging eyes.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has outlined details of the “new Windsor Framework” agreed with the European Union to overcome trade barriers in Northern Ireland following Brexit.
The prime minister said the agreement was a “historic” and a “decisive breakthrough” that “delivers smooth-flowing trade within the whole of the United Kingdom, protects Northern Ireland’s place in our union and safeguards sovereignty for the people of Northern Ireland”.
The new deal includes:
Green and red lane trade routes – where goods staying in the UK will use a green lane to avoid customs bureaucracy, while goods moving to the EU will use a red lane
UK VAT and excise changes will apply in Northern Ireland – British products such as food and drink, trees, plants and seed potatoes will be available in Northern Ireland and pet travel requirements have been removed
A “landmark” settlement on medicines so drugs approved for use by the UK’s medicines regulator will be automatically available in every pharmacy and hospital in Northern Ireland
A new “Stormont brake” – to safeguard sovereignty in Northern Ireland. Stormont can stop changes in EU goods laws from applying in Northern Ireland. If the brake is pulled, the UK government will have a veto that will apply permanently
https://news.sky.com/story/uk-and-eu-agree-new-deal-on-northern-ireland-post-brexit-trade-rules-senior-government-source-12820788
https://reneweconomy.com.au/large-scale-wind-and-solar-smash-output-records-on-main-grid/
If you’re not paying attention to the explosion in renewables generation capacity in oz, you’re not really going to understand how transformative it really is becoming. In the past week, renewables achieved a new maximum of just over 10GW, which is over 10% higher than the record set six months ago, in September 2022. This isn’t just an isolated framing of numbers either; The capacity of 10GW is quadruple the maximum set five years ago. You read right; renewables capacity has doubled twice in five years.
This isn’t slowing down either. I don’t think people realize even today how fast coal is going to be shuttered in oz. I’ll be very surprised if there are any coal generation facilities operational in 2030.
In other news, SA only required 1.4% of its grid energy to be provided by gas in January.
Thanks, BK.
It is good to see that Britain and the EU have come together on NI. There is a fair bit of kicking the can down the road, it looks rickety but with good will it should be made to work OK most of the time.
#weatheronPB
A sparse calm cool sky,
hides a restless energy.
Waiting. Stirring. Soon.
The problem I have with the Labor framing of migration reform issues is that we are not sustainable now. Every additional person we add, whether by birth or net migration, makes us less sustainable.
The migration Ponzi Scheme is supported by Labor, the Coalition and even the Greens who should know better.
I see that the usual covy of self-loathing westerners snarked the US for new interpretations of the available evidence on the source of Covid.
These are the same self-loathing westerners who have been untterly unable to acknowledge that the Chicommies have fucked over the relevant data and the relevant people and the relevant international inquiries.
None so blind.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. The Australian article on the RAAF buying UAVs is right. It is a good idea.
Questions of the production delay are (once again) valid? Why did Morrison fund the development of an affordable and world leading defence technology in Australia yet not fund its large scale manufacture? For Morrison and the brood of Liberals of his era, their hatred of Australian manufacturing led to quite irrational decisions.
On the plus side I thought Stan Grant on QandA last night was surprisingly good. Interesting to hear Sharon Burroughs speak on Putin, whom she has met several times through her ILO role.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-28/ukraine-russia-vladimir-putin-absolute-vitriol-q-and-a/102030776
Re NSW election advertising, this will be a short campaign. Can both majors be attempting a small target strategy at the same time?
Pi
Prices and wait times for EVs are falling.
One of the benefits of shutting down the climate wars was that it would unleash private capital. A billion for a battery in NSW is an example of this.
Let’s hope that the Greens don’t keep delaying the grid infrastructure spend that is absolutely vital to speeding the uptake of renewables.
Sydney train mask watch
Just the one child in a school uniform with a surgical mask on. Another using one as a chin strap.
Summary: More headphones than masks.
Soc
I had given up on Q&A because of Grant’s view that he WAS Q&A.
Did he submerge his ego and let the experts have a go?
If so, I might start watching it again.
Thanks for the Dawn Patrol BK
I note the Fiona Katauskas cartoon being Queensland focussed, yet the situation of supporting the Voice and not allowing UN inspectors into prisons is also a NSW situation.
Much thanks BK.
I concur with the academics in the conversation piece.
And i have felt it for ages. Biden will be the most consequential president of our time.
For eg. Imagine the Russian invasion had Trump been at the helm?
What actions woul China have taken? What about the middle east?
The EU?
The world order would truly be in a different place.
Doesnt bear thinking about really…..
Griff @ #2612 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 8:25 am
I think you’ve gotten to the heart of the issue. With the knowledge that most people don’t switch on to the decision-making process when it comes to who they will vote for until the last week or two or even less before the election, then it makes more sense to concentrate your resources to the back end of the campaign.
Boerwar @ #2610 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 8:23 am
This is exactly the conclusion the American investigators came to. That, with the obfuscation of the Chinese from the get go, it has been extremely difficult for investigators outside of China to get to the truth of the matter and they can only make conclusions with a low degree of certainty.
Good to see the investment in an autonomous ADF strategy. Good sense at last.
C@T
The official lying has not stopped. A couple of months ago, when thousands of Chinese people were dying daily and the hospitals were crammed with patients, the official number of deaths from Covid was one death.
But, what about the US…
Some posters simply cannot help themselves.
Did the US lie about WMDs in Iraq?
Of course.
Did China lie about the origins of Covied?
Snark, snark, snark: What about WMDs in Iraq?
This is absolutely bizarre. Remember that mass shooting at night at Michigan State University a couple of weeks ago? Here’s the statement issued in its wake by the University Admin:
After the tragic shooting at Michigan State University, Vanderbilt University’s Office of Equity, Diversity and Inclusion issued a touching statement of consolation and inclusivity.
“Another important aspect of creating an inclusive environment is to promote a culture of respect and understanding.” And: “[L]et us come together as a community to reaffirm our commitment to caring for one another and promoting a culture of inclusivity on our campus.” And: “Finally, we must recognize that creating a safe and inclusive environment is an ongoing process that requires ongoing effort and commitment.”
It’s the same nonsensical but warm sentiment said over and over—inclusive (7 times), community (5 times), safe (3)—and it kinda worked!
There was, however, one problem: At the very bottom of the statement was this reveal: “Paraphrase from OpenAI’s ChatGPT AI language model, personal communication, February 15, 2023.”
😐
If you look at the reasons given by Scotts for going into Receivership you will see the impact of inflation
Scotts is a trucking Company which was established in Mt Gambier by its founder to achieve the significant client base it had, then more recently bought by an Investment House,which proprietor appointed Receivers given the headwinds the Company was facing
Supply chain interruptions with produce and products destined for the likes of Woolworths plus the cost of fuel
Trucking Companies have always been problematic, with fixed outgoings being lease payments, fuel costs, vehicle maintenance costs, vehicle registration and insurance costs and wages a constant day upon day
Against variable income
And that is before you get to any debt the Investment House had to complete the purchase and any working capital facility it had to meet the recurring expenses pending receipts
But not all logistics Companies are going into Receivership
Scotts is one – and maybe due to its buyout being just too expensive for its business model
There are always reasons
The same with households faced with increased prices and increases in interest rates (the Cash Rate now at the LOW point of the GFC easing cycle, so higher but most definitely not high)
In the first instance it comes down to income and where I note a contributor refers to casualised workers, so workers working shifts
We were told that the lack of casual workers across hospitality waa a problem for the Industry – and was driving wages up
Workers could not be found – and we still see recruitment signs on shopfronts
The unemployment figure, useful only for trend, gives no hint of unemployment
Indeed, I know of Companies seeking to hire, including on a full time basis with again signs on window faces
They are having trouble finding people to interview – let alone the right people
Try engaging an electrician, a plumber or any tradesperson
No one is available on demand
We are in need of (discretionary) electrical works so “We are very busy Would 7AM on 14 March suit?”
Supply chains see a need to visit various supermarkets to purchase what you wish to purchase – if available
These are Pandemic times
Before you get to the price of petrol at the bowser, off a Crude price sitting in the USD80- range, so not historically high
But there are embargoes on Russia, a significant supplier hence there is competition for supply (witness gas, Australia being an alternate global supply source)
Then rents, where we read that AirBNP is seeing longer term rental stocks diminished – supply pushing long term rents up
So who is the AirBNP transitory (tourist) demographic?
Who is travelling, using their cars with petrol prices where they are at and staying in what were long term rental properties
And who are the proprietors of these properties, enjoying increased revenues on their properties?
These are just some of the questions behind the headlines, headlines where the contributor to this site says “many”
But how many is many?
Many are waiting for up to 12 months to take delivery of the new vehicle they have ordered
As always, there are some who prosper – and some who do not
So is the focus skewed to a certain demographic?
And, to be cynical, in support of the Coalition and “harder under an Albanese government”, which follows their every question?
These inflationary pressures are Global
Compare the inflation reading in Australia with elsewhere
Look at the Woodside result – and why
So a Dividend of $2.15 a Share
So Woodside versus Scott
Australian renewable energy engineer, Rosie Barnes from Engineering with Rosie, is now a host on the *fully charged* You Tube channel and explains the Australia’s energy situation.
The theme, Abundance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHA0pcMizQM
Boerwar,
As someone sagely observed about Russia, post the Cold War a detente with Russia enabled their integration into the global community, which they savagely took advantage of to enable their neo colonial goals and to fetter the West to their fossil fuels so as to mute their criticism. We are doing the same to China now, except as regards their manufacturing of products for the West.
And there have been apologists for Putin all along the way in the West and there are apologists for China now. And it is dangerous and it is reckless.
pukka,
She could have called herself, Rosie the Renewable Energy Riveter. 😉
Macca RB @ #2603 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 7:49 am
Or perhaps long enough memories to remember the scandals and maladministration which have been the hallmark of previous corrupt and out of touch Labor governments?
“Australia will avoid a recession this year but for many households it will feel like one”….
_____________________
It feels like one already in the Taylormade household.
C@tmomma @ #2619 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 8:35 am
However, this doesn’t stop the usual Chinaphobes here stating their nonsense with absolute certainty.
Latest reporting on the Fox news and Dominion voting machine saga.
——
A new Dominion court filing shows that Fox’s Rupert Murdoch admitted in his under oath deposition that Fox hosts endorsed the false notion of a stolen election.
Taylormade, stop buying take away coffee, eating avocado toast and get better job.
It’s that simple.
Gareth @ #2631 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 9:02 am
And be a bit more selective when choosing your parents.
Holdenhillbilly, 7:08am
This reminds me of customs and immigration checks on the Canada/US border. Anyone crossing that border in a private vehicle often faced long queues. Convenience stores existed on the US side to cater to people stuck in them. After a decade of submitting to this on a regular basis the entire family enrolled in the NEXUS scheme, which involved a further round of screening, background checks and fees. But it allowed us to use the NEXUS lane and drive through with a cursory wave to the person in the booth. No more passport checks. No more, “What are you coming to [country] for?” No more, “Why were you in [country]?” No more, “How long were you in [country]?” No more, “Are you bringing anything you need to declare?” No more mirrors under vehicles. No more, “Please exit the vehicle.” No more random searches. No more sniffer dogs. (I won’t go on.)
The point is that there is often a fast lane and a slow lane when you cross borders, and in 2016 Britons voted to move their entire country from the fast lane into the slow lane. The symbolism in green and red lanes is apt.
Player One – 8:35 am
It was amazing how they all seemed to miss the ‘low confidence’ bit about the claims. Check out what that rating officially means for the US ‘intelligence community’ .
Im thinking the timing of the report by the US Energy dept is no coincidence.
Oops, forgot link
.
Energy Dept. Concludes with ‘Low Confidence’ That Covid Came from a Lab Leak
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/energy-department-low-confidence-covid-lab-leak-1234687031/
Sir Jeffery desperately scratching for another reason that a Sinn Féin led administration can’t be formed at Stormont.
https://www.ft.com/content/18c0a953-f545-4e1a-93af-6b4b86bf13f5
UK Cartoons:
Patrick Blower on #DUP #Ireland #NIProtocol #Brexit #IrishBorder #SinnFein #NIAssembly #Stormont
Steve Bell: EU’s Ursula #vonderLeyen meets #KingCharle
Guy Venables on #foodshortages #vegetableshortage #tomatogate
Christian Adams on #NorthernIrelandProtocol #RishiSunak
Brighty on #BorisJohnson #RishiSunak
Morten Morland on #NorthernIrelandProtocol #DUP #BorisJohnson #RishiSunak
Shellbell
The “last resort” refers to a human decision to raise a debt based solely on the averaged income after attempts to find evidence. Not necessarily that the calculation was performed as the last step.
The calculation was performed earlier to flag *potential* debts, followed by attempts to gather evidence. If evidence was for then a debt was raised, if evidence was against then no debt was raised, if no evidence could be found for/against then a human made a decision. That decision is the “last resort”.
Such decisions were not automatic and it’s not clear how often they occurred, but any human decision to raise a debt on the sole basis of an averaged income was unlawful.
Robodebt was created by removing evidence gathering and the human. It systematically raised debts based solely on the averaged income. All those debts were raised unlawfuly. That includes those where evidence may have existed to support raising the debt, because no-one ever went looking for that evidence. The victim was expected to perform that function.
It went from questionable edge cases to every case and placed the burden on the alleged debtor because key features of the process were no longer being performed by the government.
Taylormaid, perhaps the fact that you sit on a site such as this all day, contributing your partisan dribble and being fed the never ending dribble of others, may be the reason you are experiencing hardship in the current Global economic climate
To quote Keating, “get a job”
You do not have to go too far to see a sign on a shopfront saying “Staff wanted”
It is interesting that the Restaurants I frequent with friends on a regular basis are all packed – in fact we now book the venue for our normal Friday lunch (where venue changes weekly by consultation as to where next week)
One of our number has taken the responsibility to make the booking
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 7:54 am
Gee I must be imagining the poster I have in my window which is extremely negative towards Dominic Perrottet and imagining the negative grass roots and social media campaign that is going with it. Hmm, also the finding from the last federal election that negative TV advertising against Albanese and Labor didn’t work as well as it used to. I think some people are viewing campaigns too much through their aging eyes.
——————————————————————————————-
Hi C@T
Watching the NSW from afar, and noting I have only a very limited familiarity with its politics, unlike the VIC elections, I’m finding it harder as an outsider to get a strong feeling for the outcome of the upcoming election and the vibe of voters.
This makes it simultaneously intriguing and frustrating. Even more so because it’s impossible to trust media coverage of the election, particularly because of their recent atrocious history in reporting and attempting to sway elections.
pukka @ #2624 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 8:42 am
Ya gotta laugh at this “Superpower” nonsense. The only “superpower” Australia has is in ignoring reality and fooling themselves. Oh, and “mining” – which is really what the “abundance” in the title refers to.
However, in amongst the usual Best In The World(TM) bullshit, there are a couple of interesting snippets:
– The Labor target of 82% came from existing industry projections of what would happen anyway, and not the other way around (see the video at the 3:00 mark). In other words, Labor’s 82% target is yet another “zero ambition” policy.
– The makers of this video seem unaware that the Suncable project has collapsed because of technical and financial non-viability. In other words, we are not going to be a “Superpower” except in exporting minerals and fuels.
Boerwar
I haven’t watched QandA for a while for the same reasons as you.
That being said, while I did not see all of last night’s QandA, last night it was a good panel and Grant gave them a chance to speak. Worth watching IMO.
Dominion arent mucking around
—
In an explosive new court filing, Dominion claims to have evidence that Rupert Murdoch provided Jared Kushner with ADVANCE COPIES OF BIDEN’S ADS BEFORE THEY WERE MADE PUBLIC
The day before Jan. 6 attack, top Fox execs discussed whether to make primetime hosts dispel election lies
Among the key comments revealed by Dominion Voting Systems in their court filing Monday was the revelation that News Corp. chairman Rupert Murdoch and Fox News CEO Suzanne Scott discussed whether or not they should dispel some of the lies about the 2020 election on Jan. 5, 2021.
Question: “In fact, you are now aware that Fox endorsed at times this false notion of a stolen election?”
Murdoch answer: “Not Fox, no. Not Fox. But maybe Lou Dobbs, maybe Maria, as commentators.”
Question: “We went through Fox hosts Maria Bartiromo, yes?”
Murdoch answer: “Yes. C’mon.”
Question: “Fox host Jeanine Pirro?”
Murdoch answer: “I think so.”
Question: “Fox Business host Lou Dobbs?”
Murdoch Answer: “Oh, a lot.”
Question: “Fox host Sean Hannity?”
Murdoch: “A bit.”
Question: “About Fox endorsing the narrative of a stolen election; correct?”
Murdoch: “No. Some of our commentators were endorsing it.”
Question: “About their endorsement of a stolen election?”
Murdoch: “Yes. They endorsed.”
https://www.rawstory.com/fox-news-rupert-murdoch-mike-lindell/
On media not worth watching, Murdoch in USA really has jumped the shark, and based on this tweet is actively helping Republican campaigns.
MeidasTouch@MeidasTouch·51m
“BREAKING: Rupert Murdoch and Fox colluded with Jared Kushner and the Trump campaign and provided Kushner with access to “Fox confidential information about Biden’s ads, along with debate strategy” and gave Kushner a preview of Biden’s ads before they were public.”
Murdoch and Putin: two serial influencers of US elections.
Player One says:
Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 9:44 am
Ya gotta laugh at this “Superpower” nonsense. The only “superpower” Australia has is in ignoring reality and fooling themselves. Oh, and “mining” – which is really what the “abundance” in the title refers to.
_______________
This is Heresy. Australia will be a renewable Superpower, for 3 important reasons
1. It is Labor policy to do so.
2. Australian sunshine is superior to overseas sunshine, by quite a large margin in fact.
3. The sun shines out of Australia’s arse, which is very handy.
P1 you really should start listening to people that know something about the issue.
Fox together with Murdoch and the Trump whitehouse, colluded and coordinated their misinformation campaign.
Meanwhile tucker carlson is the mouthpiece for Putin and co.
The traitors arent even pretending anymore.