Polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research (open thread)

Two new polls find Labor still with a commanding lead, but with Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings coming off their earlier peak.

The Age/Herald brings the monthly Resolve Strategic poll of federal voting intention, which has Labor down two on the primary vote to 40%, the Coalition up two to 31%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation down one to 5%. No two-party preferred is reported, but this would pan out to around 58-42 based on preference flows from last year, in from around 60-40 last time. Anthony Albanese’s approval rating (very good plus good) is down four on last month to 56%, with disapproval (very poor plus poor) up five to 30%; Peter Dutton is up one to 29% and down one to 45%; and Anthony Albanese’s lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister is 55-23, in from 55-20. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604. Further results published today including a finding that 50% expect economic conditions to worsen over the coming year, compared with 18% for improvement and 24% for staying the same.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll, which does not exclude undecided from its voting intention numbers, has Labor at 33% and the Coalition at 30% on the primary vote, both unchanged on a fortnight ago. The Greens are down three from an anomalous peak last time to 14% and One Nation are steady on 6%, with undecided at 8%. The 2PP+ measure had Labor down four to 51%, the Coalition up two to 42% and undecided up three to 8%. As noted in the previous post, Anthony Albanese’s approval is down two on a month ago to 53%, and his disapproval is up three to 34%. The full report, featuring questions on economic issues and interest rate rises, is here.

The Victorian Liberal Party’s administrative committee has as expected endorsed barrister Roshena Campbell as its candidate for the April 1 Aston by-election. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Campbell received 13 votes, with former state upper house MP Cathrine Burnett-Wake and oncologist Ranjana Srivastava on three each.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,968 comments on “Polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research (open thread)”

Comments Page 54 of 60
1 53 54 55 60
  1. @rupertmurdoch’s testimony was a huge win for Dominion’s central allegation:. “The people running the country’s most popular news network knew Trump’s claims of voter fraud during the 2020 election were false but broadcast them anyway.”

    “They endorsed,” Mr. Murdoch said under oath in response to direct questions about the hosts Sean Hannity, Jeanine Pirro, Lou Dobbs & Maria Bartiromo, a legal filing by Dominion said. “I would have liked us to be stronger in denouncing it in hindsight.

    Murdoch Acknowledges Fox News Hosts Endorsed Election Fraud Falsehoods

    The conservative media mogul made the remarks under oath last month in a $1.6 billion defamation lawsuit against Fox by Dominion Voting Systems.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/27/business/media/fox-news-dominion-rupert-murdoch.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

  2. Pi says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 8:14 am
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/large-scale-wind-and-solar-smash-output-records-on-main-grid/

    If you’re not paying attention to the explosion in renewables generation capacity in oz, you’re not really going to understand how transformative it really is becoming. In the past week, renewables achieved a new maximum of just over 10GW, which is over 10% higher than the record set six months ago, in September 2022. This isn’t just an isolated framing of numbers either; The capacity of 10GW is quadruple the maximum set five years ago. You read right; renewables capacity has doubled twice in five years.

    This isn’t slowing down either. I don’t think people realize even today how fast coal is going to be shuttered in oz. I’ll be very surprised if there are any coal generation facilities operational in 2030.

    In other news, SA only required 1.4% of its grid energy to be provided by gas in January.
    ———————————————————————————————-

    I too follow this issue very closely (daily) and I absolutely agree that many, and especially opponents (Coalition and supporters) have no idea of the speed of change occurring and the capacity being installed and the likely impact by 2030. It’s truly revolutionary.

    Because of their ignorance, wilful or otherwise, I’m entirely convinced opponents are unaware of what will happen almost overnight. To this end, I’m quite sanguine about their ridiculous attempts through the Coalition-friendly media to make asinine attempts to stem the flow of renewables. What they imagine to be a trickle is about to become a flood and they’re dreadfully ill-prepared mentally.

  3. Question: “About Fox endorsing the narrative of a stolen election; correct?”

    Murdoch: “No. Some of our commentators were endorsing it.”

    This disengagement strategy, between Fox and its commentators … on Fox News .. is bogus.

  4. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 10:10 am
    Question: “About Fox endorsing the narrative of a stolen election; correct?”

    Murdoch: “No. Some of our commentators were endorsing it.”

    This disengagement strategy, between Fox and its commentators … on Fox News .. is bogus.

    __________________________________________

    I could see that being a defence against a criminal charge against Fox or Murdoch, but the Dominion case is a civil case. Fox and Murdoch, through certain presenters, not only published these lies incredibly broadly but allowed these lies to continue to be published, pretty much until the day that they realised they were in the shit financially with the Dominion case being brought.

  5. Kim Beasley has a well written article on defence funding here.
    He has some interesting historical perspectives compared to when he was defence minister in 1987. Then Australia spent a higher % of GDP on defence, and the navy had 17 fully armed warships instead of 11 now.
    https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/affording-australias-defence/

    Looking at the length of time this higher spend may need to be sustained raises the obvious question: should we be resurrecting a government owned aircraft factory and munitions factory?

  6. TPOF @ #2657 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 10:18 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 10:10 am
    Question: “About Fox endorsing the narrative of a stolen election; correct?”

    Murdoch: “No. Some of our commentators were endorsing it.”

    This disengagement strategy, between Fox and its commentators … on Fox News .. is bogus.

    __________________________________________

    I could see that being a defence against a criminal charge against Fox or Murdoch, but the Dominion case is a civil case. Fox and Murdoch, through certain presenters, not only published these lies incredibly broadly but allowed these lies to continue to be published, pretty much until the day that they realised they were in the shit financially with the Dominion case being brought.

    I also note that Rupert Murdoch is being verbally tricky with his answers here. He is referring to the general ‘Fox’ business, which includes multifarious subsidiaries, as opposed to answering the question that was asked, about Fox News commentators.

  7. Socrates – when did Murdoch and Fox not support the Republican Party? They have been insanely partisan since creation. The late and unlamented Roger Ailes worked for Nixon, Reagan and Bush before being tapped by Murdoch to be the founding CEO of Fox and it showed from day 1. The whole thing was always built on the “Big Lie” theory, using fair and balanced as their motto while being anything but; O’Reilly’s “No Spin Zone” which was wall to wall right wing spin, etc.

  8. This is an absolutely freaking fantastic discussion/ interview with Simon Rosenberg, the Democratic pollster that correctly predicted the results of the 2022 Midterms in America. Here he is speaking about how he is getting out of that business and into attempting to create a new Progressive ecosphere to counter that which Conservatives and the Republican Party … and Rupert Murdoch … have built up into the information juggernaut it is today. An informative analysis of the intersection between the information space and politics:

    https://youtu.be/jautN–zqlk

  9. @socrrates:

    “ Looking at the length of time this higher spend may need to be sustained raises the obvious question: should we be resurrecting a government owned aircraft factory and munitions factory?”

    Perhaps we should be taking a leaf out of the Türkiye playbook: concentrate defence manufacturing on a series of ‘core’ requirements, and supplement that with a series of ‘off the shelf’ purchases, using open architecture design, fusion and interoperability to make the whole lot work together.

    I suggest we concentrate our manufacturing effort on shipbuilding [subs, patrols boats-corvettes/light frigates-heavy frigates/destroyers & buy the rest: ie. replenishment ships, LHDs and any specialist kit like ice breakers etc], plus light armoured vehicles, plus drones [submersibles and UAVs], missiles and other munitions. Much of what is required is already there, in part, it just needs to be put together in a structured way that makes sense.

  10. How is Elon fanboi, nath, going to explain this away?

    “Musk defends ‘Dilbert’ creator, says media is ‘racist against whites’.”

    😐

  11. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 10:39 am

    This is an absolutely freaking fantastic discussion/ interview with Simon Rosenberg, the Democratic pollster that correctly predicted the results of the 2022 Midterms in America. Here he is speaking about how he is getting out of that business and into attempting to create a new Progressive ecosphere to counter that which Conservatives and the Republican Party … and Rupert Murdoch … have built up into the information juggernaut it is today. An informative analysis of the intersection between the information space and politics:

    https://youtu.be/jautN–zqlk
    ____________

    One small quibble: I definitely would not characterise the right wing as having anything to do with an “information” juggernaut.

    Propaganda? Misinformation? Sure, it a little generous to the “juggernaut”.

  12. And with Murdoch being IN the media

    An observation

    Car parking around the inner Eastern train stations is sparse – so not many cars in the car parks at all

    I understand this continues along those train lines

    The reason is level crossing works which have physically commenced on those lines – and more inner City

    So train commuting has reduced significantly – the disruption to last some 3 months

    The Costello rag publishes someone from Germany, in Melbourne after 10 years or so saying they expected a “European” public transport system but that there was no improvement

    Then saying a Liberal government bought in armed guards on trains – as a positive

    Well, across Melbourne and the State, major transport works are in progress

    They have start dates and completion dates

    Currently, across the Eastern suburbs there are more vehicles on the grid locked roads because of level crossing works

    And train station car parks are empty

    But the Costello rag publishes who it publishes

    Typical

  13. Leon: “We were never given a reason for our termination, Commissioner, but I did think that there was some commonality amongst the five Secretaries who were terminated, which was that we did believe in frank and fearless advice.”

    Enough said.

  14. Renee Leon is the epitome of the standard one expects from senior public servants: articulate, considered, above all very clear and assured of their role and their responsibilities
    ___________
    the other barney
    Exactly! And that is why she was fired.
    There will be some fascinating stuff come out today that will greatly inform the commission’s report.

  15. A witness the other day told how Robert only wanted oral briefing on one of the issues related to Robodebt. It was a specific instruction.
    And Leon says this was the culture!

  16. ‘BK says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 11:27 am

    Leon says there were her and four other depsecs terminated for “giving frank and fearless advice”.
    FFS!!!!!!’
    ————————————-
    Good to hear that there WERE some APS heroes.

  17. ‘poroti says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 9:10 am

    Player One – 8:35 am

    However, this doesn’t stop the usual Chinaphobes here stating their nonsense with absolute certainty.

    It was amazing how they all seemed to miss the ‘low confidence’ bit about the claims. Check out what that rating officially means for the US ‘intelligence community’ .

    Analytic confidence
    Low confidence generally means questionable or implausible information was used, the information is too fragmented or poorly corroborated to make solid analytic inferences, or significant concerns or problems with sources existed. ‘
    ——————————-
    In relation to ignoring the ‘confidence’ signal, absolute cods.

    I pointed out that we will never know because the Chicommies have made, are making, and will make absolutely sure that no-one knows the truth. They did this by lying, by disappearing relevant people, by ensuring that only ‘good’ data was accessible and by disappearing bad data.
    They are STILL lying. At the height of the covid epidemic, when thousands were dying daily, the Chicommies reported ONE death.

    The notion that ONLY the US lies is so absurd as to be absolutely pathetic.

    The notion that the truth about Covid can be ignored because whatabout WMD in Iraq is the usual self-loathing western dumb as batshit routine.

    The reality is that Covid has killed more than all (Western) wars since WW2 combined. Well ‘worth’ lying about.

  18. ‘frednk says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 11:34 am

    alfred venison says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 11:08 am

    Seymour Hersh, “How America Took Out the Nord Stream Pipeline”.

    https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream

    alfred venison, this is what is needed for confirmation, a posting from a Russian troll. Thanks for confirming Russia blew it up and this is part of Russia’s misinformation campaign.’
    ===============================
    The tankie is not for turning but is good for a laugh.

  19. https://thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2023/02/27/russia-china-ukraine-war-australia/
    Kohler says he has three big questions about Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, but he ends on a fourth.

    #1: Why is Russia still a permanent member of the UN Security Council?
    Kohler: Russia can’t be removed. It’s that way on purpose. Try something else.
    Me: The only way to remove Russia from the Security Council is to remove either Russia from the world or the Security Council from the UN. As Kohler says, try something else.

    #2: Will a cornered Putin use nuclear weapons?
    Kohler: Who knows? Who still trusts this guy? He listens to myths.
    Me: What does it mean to “corner” Putin? The word feels like propaganda. No answer is possible. Next question.

    #3: Will China escalate?
    Kohler: China supports Russia to legitimise authoritarian rule, and while Russia has underachieved there, Russia is still an export market.
    Me: Maybe we can view the recent (flawed) peace plan as an attempt by China to find a new balance point between supporting Russia and pissing off Europe and North America.

    #4: How will this affect us in Australia?
    Kohler: Badly.
    Me: Poorly.

  20. Boerwar

    Being sacked by Morrison for doing your job maybe helps you recall what went on. And she doesn’t have a reputation to protect having come late to the show.

  21. ‘Rossmcg says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 12:09 pm

    Boerwar

    Being sacked by Morrison for doing your job maybe helps you recall what went on. And she doesn’t have a reputation to protect having come late to the show.’
    ————————————-
    Yep.

  22. Rossmcg says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 12:09 pm
    Boerwar

    Being sacked by Morrison for doing your job maybe helps you recall what went on. And she doesn’t have a reputation to protect having come late to the show.

    ____________________________________

    She will still face some challenging questions about dealings with the Ombudsman, etc

  23. New Dominion filings are ‘worst thing for the Fox News empire in years’: MSNBC host

    New filings released by Dominion Voting Systems in their $1.6 billion lawsuit against Fox News are a massive problem for the network, as well as for its billionaire owner Rupert Murdoch, MSNBC’s Ari Melber reported

    “Whether you count Mr. Murdoch out or not, what we’re seeing, filing after filing, day after day, is a case where there is so much mounting evidence that if this does get to trial, that might be the worst thing for the Fox News empire and Rupert Murdoch that we’ve seen in years, and according to the plaintiffs, that would be a very good thing indeed for restoring some standard of truth and accountability in our polarized politics and media at a time when people are trying to literally overthrow the government, commit sedition, and kill innocent Americans in the name of lies that they often heard on Fox News.”

Comments Page 54 of 60
1 53 54 55 60

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *