Polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research (open thread)

Two new polls find Labor still with a commanding lead, but with Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings coming off their earlier peak.

The Age/Herald brings the monthly Resolve Strategic poll of federal voting intention, which has Labor down two on the primary vote to 40%, the Coalition up two to 31%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation down one to 5%. No two-party preferred is reported, but this would pan out to around 58-42 based on preference flows from last year, in from around 60-40 last time. Anthony Albanese’s approval rating (very good plus good) is down four on last month to 56%, with disapproval (very poor plus poor) up five to 30%; Peter Dutton is up one to 29% and down one to 45%; and Anthony Albanese’s lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister is 55-23, in from 55-20. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604. Further results published today including a finding that 50% expect economic conditions to worsen over the coming year, compared with 18% for improvement and 24% for staying the same.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll, which does not exclude undecided from its voting intention numbers, has Labor at 33% and the Coalition at 30% on the primary vote, both unchanged on a fortnight ago. The Greens are down three from an anomalous peak last time to 14% and One Nation are steady on 6%, with undecided at 8%. The 2PP+ measure had Labor down four to 51%, the Coalition up two to 42% and undecided up three to 8%. As noted in the previous post, Anthony Albanese’s approval is down two on a month ago to 53%, and his disapproval is up three to 34%. The full report, featuring questions on economic issues and interest rate rises, is here.

The Victorian Liberal Party’s administrative committee has as expected endorsed barrister Roshena Campbell as its candidate for the April 1 Aston by-election. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Campbell received 13 votes, with former state upper house MP Cathrine Burnett-Wake and oncologist Ranjana Srivastava on three each.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,968 comments on “Polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research (open thread)”

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  1. Ahhh

    Capital Gains tax concessions

    Who changed these arrangements over Capital Gains Tax and Franking Credits?

    Along with tax cuts, where some rail against upcoming tax cuts?

    Perhaps they may put a focus on Family and Discretionary Trusts as well

  2. ‘Sceptic says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 12:17 pm

    Has there been any comment on why the RC closing witnesses are mainly PwC?’
    ————————————–
    I have no recollection about this. I did not turn my mind to it, either. Also, it was somebody else’s job.

  3. Sceptic

    I imagine PwC people might be asked about the report on Robodebt that they were engaged to write, nearly completed and never delivered. But were paid about $1 million
    The PwC guy who gave evidence a few weeks ago could offer no explanation as to why that happened or who canned it.
    Yesterday Tudge’s COS had not much memory of any of that. Which fooled nobody.

  4. ‘phoenixRED says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 12:17 pm

    New Dominion filings are ‘worst thing for the Fox News empire in years’
    …..’
    ————————–
    I appreciated Rupe’s attempt at an end run by acknowledging that SOME Fox staff ENDORSED the views. In England he killed off an entire newspaper to make a similar problem go away.

    It will be interesting to see whether he learned and what cut outs he has in place inside the Fox organization.

  5. In the UK the cap on energy prices is to be reduced – because the product cost is reducing

    But the cost to consumers – consumers who agree to direct debits to their bank accounts no less – will INCREASE because the government is lowering its subsidy to households

    And here was me thinking it is only Australia under the Albanese Labor government that had these problems

  6. Boerwar @ #2687 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 11:56 am

    ‘frednk says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 11:34 am

    alfred venison says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 11:08 am

    Seymour Hersh, “How America Took Out the Nord Stream Pipeline”.

    https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream

    alfred venison, this is what is needed for confirmation, a posting from a Russian troll. Thanks for confirming Russia blew it up and this is part of Russia’s misinformation campaign.’
    ===============================
    The tankie is not for turning but is good for a laugh.

    A Useful Idiot.

  7. Pueo @ #2710 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 12:42 pm

    Josh Butler @JoshButler

    breaking: Govt confirms superannuation changes

    “From 2025-26, the concessional tax rate applied to future earnings for balances above $3 million will be 30 per cent”

    “This is expected to apply to around 80,000 people” – 0.5% of people

    15% rate continues for balances under $3m

    https://twitter.com/JoshButler/status/1630380033889173504

    Yay! They ignored the fear and smear campaign. 😀

  8. One has to ask integrity since he is such a fan of the vicious lady, does he also
    hate the LGBTQI+ community (whom the Police are members of) whom she viciously
    attacked on Saturday? What is integrity’s position on Gay hate?

  9. Who here is actually displeased that Nord Stream 2 is out of action, hopefully for good? It was nothing but a syringe pumping Moscow’s malign influence right into the heart of Europe. Good riddance!
    🙂

  10. Roy Morgan @RoyMorganAus
    Latest Consumer Confidence: @ANZ_Research
    -Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 80.0 in late February.
    However, Consumer Confidence is still a large 19.2pts below the same week a year ago, Feb. 21-27, 2022 (99.2).

  11. ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research

    Consumer confidence fell slightly from the week before. Among those paying off their mortgage confidence dropped sharply (-4.4pts) to its lowest since early Apr 2020, to 11pts below the average for all housing cohorts.

  12. Chalmers clarifies some of those numbers around super:

    The average superannuation balance is about $150,000. And the few people with balances above $3 million hold an average of almost $6 million in their accounts.

    As the prime minister said, 17 people have got more than $100m, one person has got more than $400m.

    $100m fund earning a 5% return receives a tax break upwards of $1.5 million a year, compared to a return outside of super if it was taxed at the marginal rate.

    It takes 100 average wage earners paying the average amount of tax to pay the tax break for that simple super account every year.

    100 ordinary people to fund with their taxes the tax break on someone with $100m in super.

    Every dollar spent on a tax break with tens of millions of dollars in super is a borrowed dollar that makes the deficit bigger.

    There will still be tax concessions for you, they just won’t be quite as generous as they were before.

  13. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced tax on superannuation earnings for balances over $3 million will double from 15 per cent to 30 per cent from 2025.

    “This proposal does not change the fundamentals of our superannuation system,” Albanese said.
    Treasurer Dr Jim Chalmers and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the tax change will take effect from July 1, 2025.

    “99.5 per cent of people with superannuation aren’t affected by this reform, and a few thousand people will be impacted by this”.

    Albanese said the changes will take effect from July 1, 2025, and will bring in the government about $2 billion in additional tax over a four year period. “This is an important reform,” he said. The announcement came after a tax expenditure report found tax breaks on superannuation will be worth more than $50 billion this financial year.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tax-on-superannuation-balances-over-3-million-to-double-20230228-p5co7o.html

  14. Redfield & Wilton Strategies: UK Labour leads by 27%, ties largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.
    Changes +/- 18 February
    Labour 51% (–)
    Conservative 24% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
    Reform UK 7% (+1)
    Green 5% (–)
    SNP 3% (–)
    Other 1% (–)

  15. Tanya Plibersek @tanya_plibersek
    Just in case he’s forgotten – this is me with Angus Taylor on Sunrise in 2016. Here’s what he said when the Libs increased taxes on super in govt: “it’s totally inappropriate that someone who has contributed millions + millions of dollars continues to get those 15% concessions”

  16. Rossmcg says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 12:57 pm
    So the super supertax is a thing. From 2025

    Why wait so long?

    _____________________________________

    Seems to me it is political positioning to put the Opposition into a corner. A bit like Stage 3 tax cuts in reverse.

  17. Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his evening address on 27 February:

    “This [Iranian drone attacks] is precisely why we need the aircraft component of air defence — modern combat aircraft, so that the entire territory of our country can be protected from Russian terror. Air defence is complete when it is provided, in particular, by aircraft. Modern aircraft.

    Our pilots, together with our anti-aircraft fighters and all the soldiers and specialists of our Air Force, are doing a great job. But we will be able to fully protect the sky [only – ed.] when the aircraft taboo in relations with our partners is removed.”

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/27/7391282/

    Time we stopped jumping at shadows from Russia and the helped shield Ukrainian civilians from these cowardly terror attacks.

  18. “$100m fund earning a 5% return receives a tax break upwards of $1.5 million a year, compared to a return outside of super if it was taxed at the marginal rate.

    It takes 100 average wage earners paying the average amount of tax to pay the tax break for that simple super account every year.

    100 ordinary people to fund with their taxes the tax break on someone with $100m in super.”

    Now THAT is some well-workshopped messaging!

  19. Explosive dossier sets scene for NSW poll battle

    – Secretive far-right operation in “all corners of NSW”
    – Hard-right “Christian” scheme tied to “missing” Liberal figures
    – Close ties with ultra-conservative Opus Dei sect
    – Events hosted by at least 14 prominent figures, including Abbott
    – Media “blind eye” to group’s operations

    A string of Liberal Party members — two of them on the run from the law — are allegedly behind a secretive, far-right “Christian” group created to influence “public policy” inline with an extreme sect of Catholicism.

    A NSW parliamentary inquiry has tabled an explosive, 79-page dossier shedding light on the clandestine group — called the “NSW Reformers” — including its use of former Prime Minister Tony Abbott and shock jock Alan Jones to recruit members.

    The highly-detailed dossier includes hard evidence about the operations of the secretive group and draws on information from a wide range of sources, including since deleted webpages recovered via web archive site Wayback Machine.

    No source is given for the dossier, which was tabled in the NSW upper house inquiry by NSW ALP MP John Graham.

    The dossier contains a deleted NSW Reformers webpage says the group was created in 2018 by Ellis to “reform this great state” of NSW, including by having hard-right policies around abortion “reflected in public policy”.

    “On starting NSW Reformers, Christian’s intention was to see the NSW Reformers act as a voice within the Liberal Party to work as a united and coordinated Christian voice,” says the deleted webpage.

    “For years, we have seen the slow erosion of (Christian) values, which has in turn effected the rights of everyday Australians in areas such as faith, life and speech.

    “As such we seek to reform this this great state by adding a Christian voice to it,” it states.

    And lots more besides here:
    https://theklaxon.com.au/ztem-7/

  20. July 1 2025 is after the next election (or thereabouts)

    The Liberals can campaign on restoring 15% tax lurk for people with more than $3m in super.

    Good luck with that

  21. There’s not much more room left under the bus now Campbell and Morrison and his ministers are there.
    We are seeing a huge, emotional and constructive outpouring from Prof Leon.

  22. Campbell just cops it again from Leon.
    may have been “rewarded” with foreign affairs and trade when she had no background in diplomacy.
    We’ve seen her diplomacy in action.

  23. Professor Leon paints a clear picture of the vindictiveness of the Govt to staffers who don’t comply with their requirements.

  24. Leon has not just thrown Campbell under the bus, but added lead weights so Campbell could not move while the bus moved forward and back over her.

  25. Keir Starmer has banned a number of affiliated organizations from the Labour party, including peace, environmental, trade union and anti nuclear groups. However the one of most note, was a Jewish group. Seems it’s only anti antisemitism when Corbyn is accused of it. These were clearly the wrong Jews to have in the party, you know the ones who recognize Palestinian rights!

  26. ‘clem attlee says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 1:42 pm

    Keir Starmer has banned a number of affiliated organizations from the Labour party, including peace, environmental, trade union and anti nuclear groups. However the one of most note, was a Jewish group. Seems it’s only anti antisemitism when Corbyn is accused of it. These were clearly the wrong Jews to have in the party, you know the ones who recognize Palestinian rights!’
    —————————————————
    What is the name of the ‘Jewish Group’?

  27. clem attlee says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 1:50 pm
    What is the name of the ‘Jewish Group’?

    Jews for Labour or sosmesuch. I will look it up.

    ___________________________________

    Jews for Jesus? (Yes – they really do exist!)

  28. I just had a very cursory look at the Australian Constitution. There doesn’t appear to be many references to how the public service should operate.

    I wonder if a PB’er with legal knowledge could comment on the appropriateness of using the opportunity when we go to the polls to vote on the Voice, we also vote on an addition to the constitution that separates the public service from the Executive.

    As I understand it we have three pillars of government – the parliament, the executive, and the judiciary, and that these three pillars should provide checks and balances on the other two.. Why not a fourth pillar, an independent public service?

    Revelations at the robodebt royal commission show us how the LNP used appointments, non appointments, and transfers to ensure they had lackeys on hand to implement their illegal schemes.

  29. I doubt that dossier will go far. It is amazing the cover which is being run for these people by some of the mainstream press. To be fair to Hadley he has been right onto it and running daily stories and opinion offerings about where these people have gone and it being disgraceful. However, his stablemate masthead, the SMH (which even the Australian called out yesterday for its daily campaigning for Perrottet on pokie reform) is silent.

    Leaving aside the political nature of the inquiry (as it is the upper house) these allegations came from the Liberals and the fact people involved continue to hide and evade process servers is an affront to our democracy. Come on – this is scandalous stuff and yet Perrottet is able to run his ‘I am working hard etc’ line on a daily basis. One of them is a serving Liberal Councillor who is not performing her council duties to avoid getting served. How is that acceptable for the leader of the Liberal party? I heard one of the 9 reporters (not the usual political reporter) try to question Dom about where his brothers were repeatedly and he just kept running the same line. Of course, she cannot make him answer the question but something is rotten here.

  30. C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 12:36 pm
    Boerwar @ #2687 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 11:56 am

    ‘frednk says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 11:34 am

    alfred venison says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 11:08 am

    Seymour Hersh, “How America Took Out the Nord Stream Pipeline”.

    https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream

    alfred venison, this is what is needed for confirmation, a posting from a Russian troll. Thanks for confirming Russia blew it up and this is part of Russia’s misinformation campaign.’
    ===============================
    The tankie is not for turning but is good for a laugh.

    A Useful Idiot.

    better than being a Useless Idiot

  31. Cricket followers: Check out the result from NZ. The Kiwis won by a 1 run after being forced to follow on. Only the 4th time in history that a team has won a test after being forced to follow on.

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