Polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research (open thread)

Two new polls find Labor still with a commanding lead, but with Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings coming off their earlier peak.

The Age/Herald brings the monthly Resolve Strategic poll of federal voting intention, which has Labor down two on the primary vote to 40%, the Coalition up two to 31%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation down one to 5%. No two-party preferred is reported, but this would pan out to around 58-42 based on preference flows from last year, in from around 60-40 last time. Anthony Albanese’s approval rating (very good plus good) is down four on last month to 56%, with disapproval (very poor plus poor) up five to 30%; Peter Dutton is up one to 29% and down one to 45%; and Anthony Albanese’s lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister is 55-23, in from 55-20. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604. Further results published today including a finding that 50% expect economic conditions to worsen over the coming year, compared with 18% for improvement and 24% for staying the same.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll, which does not exclude undecided from its voting intention numbers, has Labor at 33% and the Coalition at 30% on the primary vote, both unchanged on a fortnight ago. The Greens are down three from an anomalous peak last time to 14% and One Nation are steady on 6%, with undecided at 8%. The 2PP+ measure had Labor down four to 51%, the Coalition up two to 42% and undecided up three to 8%. As noted in the previous post, Anthony Albanese’s approval is down two on a month ago to 53%, and his disapproval is up three to 34%. The full report, featuring questions on economic issues and interest rate rises, is here.

The Victorian Liberal Party’s administrative committee has as expected endorsed barrister Roshena Campbell as its candidate for the April 1 Aston by-election. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Campbell received 13 votes, with former state upper house MP Cathrine Burnett-Wake and oncologist Ranjana Srivastava on three each.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,968 comments on “Polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research (open thread)”

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  1. BSF, yeah, I was following it. Well done kiwis!

    The run-out of Brook* without facing a ball will be looked at over and over again.

    *If you don’t know who he is, check him out.

  2. alfred venison @ Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 2:08 pm:
    ===================

    Alfred, do you think the decommissioning of Nord Stream 2, however it was done, is a good thing or a bad thing?

  3. Is someone going to inform Robert that legal advice from the Governments Solicitor General is not” just legal advice” he had obligation to act.. is it malfeasance in office.
    It didn’t need the AG to remind him.

  4. So, the Shadow Assistant Treasurer does not give much of a toss for the legal opinions of the AG. Mind you, he may have been undergoing a fast at the time.

  5. Boerwarsays:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 2:21 pm
    Wowzer! Leon stopped the program in defiance of the Government!

    She should get an AO for that sort of thing. Proper courage. Especially with that bully Sfm as PM. The pressure would have been incredible.

  6. mikehilliard says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 2:23 pm
    BW

    And sacked her the next day?

    _______________________________

    Not long after. And it appears from a quick look at Wikipedia that it was the lovely Ms Cash who found Ms Leon too balanced in the advice she was providing.

  7. Rossmcg says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 12:57 pm
    So the super supertax is a thing. From 2025

    Why wait so long?

    Mandate?

  8. Rex Douglas
    Will be interesting how it will washout re Labours vote share at the next general election.

    He couldn’t do any worse than that deadshit Corbyn. There wasn’t many red bits left on the UK map after that goddamn socialist was through pissing off voters.

    Shogun thinks Corbyn-san should do the most honourable thing and perform political seppuku before the next election.

  9. Guardian blog..

    Robodebt inquiry told DHS secretary took ‘credit’ for scheme

    The former secretary of the Department of Human Services, Renee Leon, has told a royal commission her predecessor Kathryn Campbell took “credit” for the robodebt scheme.

    Appearing at the inquiry on Tuesday, Leon, who replaced Campbell in October 2017 and held the role until December 2019, said her relationship with her predecessor was initially collegial but became “difficult” as time went on.

    Leon said when she took on the position at DHS in October 2017, she was aware of deep cultural problems at senior levels at the department. She said she was told officials sometimes yelled at each other, publicly shamed one another, and there was concern about raising bad news.

    She said:

    You end up with a situation where people are afraid to raise risks or say something negative because they might get humiliated or yelled at.
    Leon said she tried to make clear “no one would get shot” for bringing her bad news, adding, “It’s much better to find out, than to find out afterwards, as I discovered.”

    Leon said she had been “shocked” to read the solicitor-general’s advice in the middle of 2019 that found the robodebt scheme was unlawful.

    In 30 years as a public servant, I have never discovered that I’d been administering a program of the scale that was unlawful.
    Campbell has told the commission she was involved in an early brief for the robodebt proposal in 2015, but did not see the plan through the budget process. She has said she regretted not seeking external legal advice but added the scheme’s legality was primarily the Department of Social Services’ responsibility, because it managed social security law.

    Leon was asked about her understanding of where the robodebt proposal had come from.

    She told the commission:

    It was spoken of and understood to have been the concept of the Department of Human Services… Kathryn did tend to credit for it, though that could just be because secretaries tend to take credit for the work of their department. But I understood it to be something she thought of.
    And in my early dealings with her, in the first six months of the role, I remember talking to her about the need for [budget savings]. She had recommended to me I should look further in the compliance area, because that was where there was money to be found, and she had had great success in doing that by coming up with the online compliance interventions and associated data-matching ideas.
    Campbell is expected to give evidence again at the commission.

    The inquiry continues.

  10. Oh absolutely. How it occurred to nobody with influence that Campbell was likely to get absolutely shredded over Robodebt when giving her privileged access to Aukus deliberations amazes me. She really should have been sacked at the change of government.

  11. BSF at 2.10 re Test cricket teams winning when following on…

    Of the 4 matches where this happened, Australia (off the top of my head) lost 2, in England 1981 and in India 2001. I don’t blame us for basically never enforcing the follow on!

    Hats off to the Kiwis!

  12. Re revelations from Robodebt RC…

    Did the Coalition think they’d be in government forever?

    Like, I’m disgusted (and unsurprised) by Robodebt. What amazes me is how much evidence and how many witnesses they left behind.

    At least the Nazis tried to burn all the incriminating documents and shoot surviving witnesses…

  13. Snappy Tom @ #2779 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 2:02 pm

    Re revelations from Robodebt RC…

    Did the Coalition think they’d be in government forever?

    Like, I’m disgusted (and unsurprised) by Robodebt. What amazes me is how much evidence and how many witnesses they left behind.

    At least the Nazis tried to burn all the incriminating documents and shoot surviving witnesses…

    They obviously think they haven’t done anything wrong. Which is seriously scary

  14. We lost a follow on test in 1894 in Sydney when, according to legend, the leading Pommie bowler, Bobby Peel, was pissed as prior to play and had to be put under a cold shower.

  15. TPOF @ #2723 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 1:17 pm

    Rossmcg says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 12:57 pm
    So the super supertax is a thing. From 2025

    Why wait so long?

    _____________________________________

    Seems to me it is political positioning to put the Opposition into a corner. A bit like Stage 3 tax cuts in reverse.

    Yes, it just occurred to me that this is a set up for the next election campaign. The Coalition, the party who are campaigning for the benefits for the ultra wealthy V Labor, the party for Hard Working Not Particularly Wealthy Families. 🙂

  16. Bobby Peel’s first class career ended when, instead of going for a slash outside the off stump, he had one in the middle of the pitch.

  17. Griff @ #2432 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 1:06 pm

    Does this mean Meher Baba will stop posting again for a while?

    I have found that reminding MB that they insisted that people approached by police were treated the same way, regardless of their skin colour, can result in that person retracting into their carapace. They insisted same, despite the finding by the Victorian Coroner that an indigenous woman who was found sleeping on a Ballarat – Melbourne train was negligently treated when she died in a police cell, to which she had been taken, deposited and ignored, on the same day that police transported a white woman, who was drunk, after removal from the same train, to her home.

    Meher Baba is a person of limited reasoning power, virtually no analytical ability, and a bunch of ingrained prejudices, particularly towards members of our society who have been unfortunate in their early life environment.

  18. Ajm at 3.07 re Coalition not thinking they did anything wrong on Robodebt…

    At least the Nazis recognised that OTHERS would think they were doing (galactically) wrong things, which is why they belatedly tried to “eliminate” the evidence.

    Trying to get myself inside the Coalition world-view…Robodebt wasn’t wrong (because welfare cheats, presumably)…anyone who thinks Robodebt was wrong is “soft on welfare cheating”(?!!!)… so, the Coalition doesn’t have a moral problem, everyone else does???

    At the Nuremberg trials, a decisive witness was the Auschwitz commandant (Hoess, I think). He spoke with matter-of-fact pride about the efficiency of the camp. Will we find a Robodebt equivalent?

  19. Renee Leon is a bureaucratic force of nature who clearly enjoys her revenge served cold. Cut her career teeth in Attorney Generals so comfortable and clinical in this setting. Fun fact: her domestic partner back then was the equally formidable press gallery maven Margo Kingston. Long since gone separate ways but Margo will be cheering her on here.

  20. alfred venison @ #2749 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 2:08 pm

    C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 12:36 pm
    Boerwar @ #2687 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 11:56 am

    ‘frednk says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 11:34 am

    alfred venison says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 11:08 am

    Seymour Hersh, “How America Took Out the Nord Stream Pipeline”.

    https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream

    alfred venison, this is what is needed for confirmation, a posting from a Russian troll. Thanks for confirming Russia blew it up and this is part of Russia’s misinformation campaign.’
    ===============================
    The tankie is not for turning but is good for a laugh.

    A Useful Idiot.

    better than being a Useless Idiot

    You can be both. 🙂

  21. While it didn’t seem that strange to me that Kathryn Campbell would be kept around in some capacity until after the RC, it does seem strange that she’s continued to apparently have real responsibility. Did she manage to convince someone in Labor that Robodebt wasn’t her fault, nothing to do with her? Because that does not seem like it is going to hold up.

  22. Arky @ #2792 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 3:57 pm

    While it didn’t seem that strange to me that Kathryn Campbell would be kept around in some capacity until after the RC, it does seem strange that she’s continued to apparently have real responsibility. Did she manage to convince someone in Labor that Robodebt wasn’t her fault, nothing to do with her? Because that does not seem like it is going to hold up.

    I imagine there are protocols that have to be observed when demoting or sacking a Department Secretary. Just Cause needing to be shown. Or else, big $$ compensation.

  23. So if the total income for a $3m+ is from fully franked dividends zero tax payable.

    Still very generous but that will not stop the whingers.

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