The Age/Herald brings the monthly Resolve Strategic poll of federal voting intention, which has Labor down two on the primary vote to 40%, the Coalition up two to 31%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation down one to 5%. No two-party preferred is reported, but this would pan out to around 58-42 based on preference flows from last year, in from around 60-40 last time. Anthony Albanese’s approval rating (very good plus good) is down four on last month to 56%, with disapproval (very poor plus poor) up five to 30%; Peter Dutton is up one to 29% and down one to 45%; and Anthony Albanese’s lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister is 55-23, in from 55-20. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604. Further results published today including a finding that 50% expect economic conditions to worsen over the coming year, compared with 18% for improvement and 24% for staying the same.
The fortnightly Essential Research poll, which does not exclude undecided from its voting intention numbers, has Labor at 33% and the Coalition at 30% on the primary vote, both unchanged on a fortnight ago. The Greens are down three from an anomalous peak last time to 14% and One Nation are steady on 6%, with undecided at 8%. The 2PP+ measure had Labor down four to 51%, the Coalition up two to 42% and undecided up three to 8%. As noted in the previous post, Anthony Albanese’s approval is down two on a month ago to 53%, and his disapproval is up three to 34%. The full report, featuring questions on economic issues and interest rate rises, is here.
The Victorian Liberal Party’s administrative committee has as expected endorsed barrister Roshena Campbell as its candidate for the April 1 Aston by-election. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Campbell received 13 votes, with former state upper house MP Cathrine Burnett-Wake and oncologist Ranjana Srivastava on three each.
Pisays:
Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 5:24 pm
Good point.
Just like the S3 tax cuts are in the forward estimates so modification to take effect after the next election will have a significant impact.
WeWantPaul says:
Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 5:12 pm
I don’t understand how appointing competent woman is an achievement. It is 2023 not 1963.
____________
Tell that to the Coalition!
Speaking of mediocre fuckwits and morons with subterranean standards, it says all you need to know about the AFL, the quality of its leadeship and its standards that Clarkson is on deck to attack journalists doing their job.
You have to be a one eyed sycophant, and we know form the local sample here there are more of these mindless gimps than you’d expect, to give that a gold star.
Rex Douglas @ #2827 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 5:06 pm
Be fair, Rex – they are just following Labor’s policy guidelines – “Set a low target, and then fail to meet it” 🙁
Sceptic @ #2844 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 5:27 pm
Robert will I expect will spu forth a word salad of nonsense in the spirit of his hero SfM.
Cronus says:
Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 5:15 pm
“ The 2021 census reports that nationally, Australian Pentecostalism declined by 4,700 people – or 2% – since 2016. And a Christian Research Association report shows the strongest drop was among those aged 15-34.”
“Reverend Dr Philip Hughes, a research fellow at the Christian Research Association, told us, “The decline in Pentecostals has been greater among females than males, with the female proportion dropping from 56% in 2011 to 54% in 2021.”
Perhaps it’s causation, perhaps it’s correlation, but it’s interesting that the drop in young people and females attending Pentecostal churches isn’t dissimilar to the drop in numbers of these two categories in terms of support for the Liberals.
https://theconversation.com/were-told-pentecostal-churches-like-hillsong-are-growing-in-australia-but-theyre-not-anymore-is-there-a-gender-problem-199413
____________
I didn’t even need the Houston scandal to wonder why there hasn’t been a 92% decline in Pentecostalism.
Evan @ #2837 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 5:21 pm
Not unless it also involved chaff bags.
WeWantPaul @ #2851 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 5:31 pm
Yes footy fans have stood by over the decades and watched spivs and shonks take control of a once great sporting competition and turn it into a corporate venture.
Kevin Bonham
#Morgan (federal) ALP 37 L-NP 34.5 Green 13.5 others 15.0 . Morgan’s 2PP is 56.5 (-2) but I get 55.5. There is a skew in whatever Morgan are doing with how they estimate federal 2PPs.
One thing silly Boerwar left off his list:
Australia’s stage 3 tax cuts are likely to make the nation’s income tax system less progressive, overwhelmingly benefit the wealthy and spur further inequality, as for every dollar of the tax cut that women get, men get two
The proposed changes to super will hurt a small number of people who don’t need the tax concessions, but will benefit no voter directly (i.e., nobody will see the money transferred directly to them from the wealthy super fund).
With S3, if the government just drops or delays it, a lot of people will see money they were expecting disappear. However, if it is a direct transfer from high income earners to low income earners by way of a rejigging of benefits, it will be a dead easy sell. All the government needs to do is provide wall to wall ads about how much they will get as a result. There will be a lot more small winners than the small number of big losers.
Bottom line, the Government will rejig the s3 tax cuts to favour lower income earners in the 2024 budget. And it will be a huge vote winner.
I thought to myself, “What if Stu Robert does a Tudge…?”
Just checked the electoral data for Robert’s seat, Fadden (Qld Gold Coast)…
He suffered a swing against of a few %, but still has a margin of 10.63.
Could resignation surrounded by Robodebt infamy inspire Gold Coast loonies to turf out the LNP at a by election?
Much less chance than Aston, itself less than 50% probability, but one can dream…
TPOF says:
Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 5:43 pm
The proposed changes to super will hurt a small number of people who don’t need the tax concessions, but will benefit no voter directly (i.e., nobody will see the money transferred directly to them from the wealthy super fund).
With S3, if the government just drops or delays it, a lot of people will see money they were expecting disappear. However, if it is a direct transfer from high income earners to low income earners by way of a rejigging of benefits, it will be a dead easy sell. All the government needs to do is provide wall to wall ads about how much they will get as a result. There will be a lot more small winners than the small number of big losers.
Bottom line, the Government will rejig the s3 tax cuts to favour lower income earners in the 2024 budget. And it will be a huge vote winner.
____________
Then can we introduce a Bill to Tax Gina Rinehart Majorly?
There will be lots of vacancies at Boston Consulting for ex Minsterial hacks
TPOF says:
Bottom line, the Government will rejig the s3 tax cuts to favour lower income earners in the 2024 budget. And it will be a huge vote winner.
_________
Despite the fact that the government hasn’t said it will do any such thing.
Rossmore @ #2835 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 5:18 pm
Thank you, Rossmore. 🙂
Albo hasn’t got the balls to touch S3.
Bookmark it.
Integrity got no takers on the fossil cartel bait.
Switches back to a one liner bait on S3.
Albo hasn’t got the balls to properly take on the fossil fuel cartel either.
Bookmark that too.
LOL Rex Douglas , definate Bookmark
In regard Negative Gearing, quarantine trading losses to the income of the asset.
And accrue the losses for Capital Gains Tax offset upon the sale of the asset (given there is a Capital Gain of course)
Instead of being able to “wash” the losses back over other income to reduce your overall tax obligation.
The negative is what we read re a lack of rental properties with demand pushing rents up.
So where did all the rental properties go to?
Hence some research on the impact on the attractiveness of having your name on the C/T of a rental property given the change in how losses are assessed because we need landlords.
Negative Gearing is a tax minimization strategy.
I guess you’d have to give Clarkson 5 gold stars on the Boerwar Scale, so he threatened a journalist and gave an apology that was pathetic and then tried to walk it back, but to my knowledge he hasn’t tried to bully a junior player into leaving their partner or demanding a partner aborts a baby, so he is have a great year, super, so impressive.
Clarkson has anger issues. Has had them all his career. Small man syndrome perhaps. “The Madness of Dwarves”.
Socrates at 4:37 pm
Meanwhile over at Mordor Media the current headlines are…
The Australian
PM, Labor ‘break election promise on super’
.
Albanese risks breaching faith with voters on super
.
PM joins pollies, public servants’ $10m super club
Anger will be white hot when people realise their superannuation is being raided while a $500bn nest egg for the nation’s top pollies, public servants and their spouses is left untouched.
.
Daily Telegraph
What super changes mean for the average Aussie
.
‘Broken promise’: Coalition slams super tax hikes
.
Are expensive homes the next target?
.
Herald Sun
Carbon copy ot their Sydney sewermate.
Hey nath
I was talking to a colleague who is a long-time pie supporter and he was saying how much he would have preferred Collingwood to remain at Vic Park and redevelop it into their home training/admin/VFL/AFLW base rather than let McGuire take them away from their spiritual home.
You agree ..?
As the changes to superannuation taxation are being described in the media, it appears that investment earnings on a super account with a balance of $3,000,000 (how / when calculated? As at July 1 each year?) will be taxed at the new rate of 30%. Investment earnings on a fund with a balance of $2,999,999 will continue to be taxed at 15%.
Is this right? Or does the new rate apply only to that part of the fund balance above $3 million? If so, how is the split calculated?
There’s no doubt a lot of detail to work out, including plugging loopholes. Then funds have to update their systems.
poroti says:
Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 6:05 pm
Socrates at 4:37 pm
Nobody even vaguely impartial is seriously arguing with Labor’s super cap plan.
Meanwhile over at Mordor Media the current headlines are…
The Australian
PM, Labor ‘break election promise on super’
.
Albanese risks breaching faith with voters on super
.
PM joins pollies, public servants’ $10m super club
Anger will be white hot when people realise their superannuation is being raided while a $500bn nest egg for the nation’s top pollies, public servants and their spouses is left untouched.
.
Daily Telegraph
What super changes mean for the average Aussie
.
‘Broken promise’: Coalition slams super tax hikes
.
Are expensive homes the next target?
.
Herald Sun
Carbon copy ot their Sydney sewermate.
——————————————
Newsltd hacks are narcissistic and predictable they haven’t learn from the 2022 Federal or Victorian election
It’s a hard one Rex. We were on the bones of our arse when Eddie took over. It’s possible that it could have been redeveloped, the club still own the building there which housed the social club and administration. Even with a hostile council I think it would have been worth the try. It’s just not the same. We have become a club which serves elite athletes, not its members. Fortunately, much of the guts still remains at Vic Park, and it’s never too late to go back. If enough money was spent perhaps even a few games could return. It was one of the finest surfaces in the state, and the opposition would shit themselves going there. 643 wins, 215 losses.
Steve 6.10pm
It is for the balance over $3 million, and it doesn’t take effect till 2025. I thought Chalmers was pretty clear on this point. So if you have a super balance of $4 million you pay 30% on $1 million and 15% on $3 million.
“”From 2025-26, the concessional tax rate applied to future earnings for balances above $3 million will be 30 per cent.
“This is expected to apply to around 80,000 people, and they will continue to benefit from more generous tax breaks on earnings from the $3 million below the threshold.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-28/jim-chalmers-superannuation-tax-changes-three-million-cap/102032156
” PM joins pollies, public servants’ $10m super club” In which case their super balances will be subject to the new 30% rate. No worries.
Anger will be white hot when people realise their superannuation is being raided The Australian will try to stir up anger rather than report the facts and provide clear-headed commentary. No one’s superannuation is being “raided”. A generous concession on investment growth is being made less generous. No worries. That language is not what you expect from a quality journal, which The Australian pretends to be. Anyway, the people affected nearly all vote Liberal. No worries.
while a $500bn nest egg for the nation’s top pollies, public servants and their spouses is left untouched. OK, I don’t know what this is about. I’ll follow up from a credible source. Anyway, emotional language means this could well be crap.
I bet Peter Dutton has a few ‘small businesses’ and investment properties in HIS SMSF. 😐
News Corp aren’t interested in that, of course.
He wouldn’t be the only one on the Coalition side either.
Scott at 6:11 pm
I forgot about the Courier Mail and just checked their ‘front page’ . They had all the Tele and Hun headlines but then this article leapt out. Surprised to see it their given the Mordor Media wailing over the change affecting the ‘battlers’ with $3,000,000+ super accounts . Pay-walled but the gist is given.
Re Socrates @6:19. Thank you. That would seem far more reasonable.
I still find the statement ”From 2025-26, the concessional tax rate applied to future earnings for balances above $3 million will be 30 per cent.” ambiguous. “Future earnings on that part of the balance above $3 million” would be clearer.
Pretty funny that even the pretence of conservatives and greens being different has been abandoned by them. Mission accomplished by the Albanese government really.
Interesting side note to Robodebt RC witness, Mark Wood:
stranger
@strangerous10
#RobodebtRC
Justin Greggery KC asks Tudge’s former Senior Advisor Mark Wood if he questioned the scheme’s legality after seeing all the issues raised in the media in 2017
MW
“I hadn’t turned my mind to asking that specific question No”
PS He is now Dutton’s Senior Advisor
In the 50s Collingwood were ahead of the pack in terms of grounds. The brilliant Coventry stand/Social club and administration building was outstanding. Although the Sherrin Stand was built in the 60s it should have been replicated right around the ground.
nath @ #2876 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 6:14 pm
You’ve got too many members to host AFL games there, but AFLW and AFL reserves along with a redeveloped training admin base would be good to see.
Get the Collingwood back in Collingwood !
Same with the bombers and Windy Hill.
I love the Murdochracy’s “broken promise/Super raid” themes. Did they even mention the $3m bit?
Do they really expect punters to believe a change to tax treatment of that portion of super balances over $3m means Albo & Chalmers are coming for their $150,000? (Along with their bbq/ute/boat/backyard/weekend?)
Still, 2019…when the “miracle” wasn’t Scomo winning but just how many he* could get to believe his crapola…
*Along with meeja mates
ST:
Fadden strikes me as the sort of seat that’s more likely to swing to the Libs on account of the Robodebt scandal.
Asha says:
Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 6:42 pm
ST:
Just checked the electoral data for Robert’s seat, Fadden (Qld Gold Coast)…
He suffered a swing against of a few %, but still has a margin of 10.63.
Could resignation surrounded by Robodebt infamy inspire Gold Coast loonies to turf out the LNP at a by election?
Much less chance than Aston, itself less than 50% probability, but one can dream…
Fadden strikes me as the sort of seat that’s more likely to swing to the Libs on account of the Robodebt scandal.
____________
Some of our fellow citizens are truly inspiring…
I only went to one Collingwood match at Victoria Park taken by a good mate and Collingwood supporter known since uni days.
We had a nice hotel bistro gentlemen’s lunch before entering the ground.
On the bounce of the ball I couldn’t believe the character change of my normal mild mannered smooth high level banking corporate CEO mate. White maggot screams at umpires and all that! After match he reverted to normal type.
I had only been to Festival Hall to watch boxing on one occasion. Extreme similar boganism by both boxing supporters and male/female Collingwood supporters at both events .
And maybe nath (nose ring) and recently in the news again Collingwood FC cheer squad depraved sex offender Joffa are mates?
After all he has recently boasted of being mates and dinner partner with deceased grimy organized crime figure Graham ‘munster’ Kinniburgh.
Rex Douglas @ Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 5:06 pm
“The fossil fuel cartel pisses on you and tells you it’s raining…”
As opposed to your posts.
Griff @ #2892 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 6:51 pm
And you are defending the cartel … why? …
I wonder how much super dear Angus Taylor has ferreted away? With his resistance to Labor’s super changes, is he looking after number one? Surely not.
C@tmomma @ Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 5:51 pm
“Rossmore @ #2835 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 5:18 pm
“Why hasn’t Kathryn Campbell been moved on by the Labor Gov?
Because sensibly they shouldn’t.
Andrew Podger’s report recommendations to the Robodebt RC, if accepted by Gov, offers a likely route to secure her exit from the APS:
Recommendation B6: That, in the event the Royal Commission recommends that there should be an investigation whether current or former Secretaries or APS employees have breached the Code of Conduct, the Prime Minister be asked to refer the matter to the APS Commissioner for investigation under s 41A or s 41B of the PS Act.
Source: https://robodebt.royalcommission.gov.au/system/files/2023-02/andrew-podger-report-to-robodebt-royal-commission.pdf
A very good read by the way ….”
Thank you, Rossmore. ”
Thanks Rossmore as well.
Dr John, you are misrepresenting me. I never claimed to be mates with The Munster, only that he sent a bottle over to our table because my cousin was a high ranking police officer.
But you know who was a very close friend of The Munster? Mick Gatto, who you have claimed some association with. Now that is ironic.
Snappy Tom @ 6.47
Fadden strikes me as the sort of seat that’s more likely to swing to the Libs on account of the Robodebt scandal.
_____________________________________________
There is a huge swathe of low to medium income earners and especially pensioners who think that everyone on income support is ripping off the taxpayer. The view is so entrenched that Robodebt lived for 5 years before it was put down by the Attorney-General confirming to Stuart Robert that the opinion of the Solicitor-General is not just “an opinion”.
And even then it required Renee Leon to jump the gun because the swine who were supposed to run the country were still looking for ways of keeping Robodebt alive or at least not owning up to its catastrophic effect and were not interested in picking up the gun let alone firing it.
I’m not aware of any Government minister who had responsibility for Robodebt at any time expressing regret for the pain it caused, just regret that it turned out to be illegal and who could have imagined that? Certainly not anyone who had never been on income support!
Player One @ Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 6:53 pm
“Griff @ #2892 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 6:51 pm
Rex Douglas @ Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 5:06 pm
“The fossil fuel cartel pisses on you and tells you it’s raining…”
As opposed to your posts.”
And you are defending the cartel … why? …”
As you are Player One and always right, any refutation of your analysis and the assumptions on which you performed such a feat would be wasted.
Carry on! 🙂
mikehilliard
superannuation may well be a small section of Angus Taylor’s wealth.
There are family trusts, companies …
https://openpolitics.au/archive/angus-taylor#shareholdings
nath says:
Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 6:59 pm
Dr John, you are misrepresenting me. I never claimed to be mates with The Munster, only that he sent a bottle over to our table because my cousin was a high ranking police officer.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Oh yeah!
‘nathsays:
Sunday, February 26, 2023 at 9:38 pm
Dr John. I’m glad The Munster robbed you. He spent it in style at least.
I might have even had a share in it myself. He did shout me a bottle of wine once.